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Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 11:04 AM
Baseball Prospetcus’s co-founder Clay Davenport, who created the Davenport projections, just released his 2013 version on to the world (http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml).

His numbers show a bit more optimism for the Twins than his Las Vegas gambling counterparts, but the overall outlook is still unpleasant. His projections say that the Twins will finish last in the Central with 72 wins. To arrive at this win total, Davenport implements his Pythagenport Formula (a variation of the Pythagorean Formula (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation)) based on the project runs scored and runs allowed. His calculations say that the Twins lineup will score 659 runs – a 42-run decline front 2012. This total is the fourth-worst projected offense in baseball (ahead of San Diego, Seattle and Miami). With some uncertainties at the top of the lineup, this makes sense. But do we really believe that this lineup is 42 runs worse than last year’s version?

On the defensive side, Davenport believes that the Twins will trim the runs allowed total down from the (ermahgerd!) 832 runs surrendered in 2012 to a much more manageable 739 runs – a near 100-run swing – but still the sixth-highest total in MLB.

PseudoSABR
03-13-2013, 11:59 AM
I think our offense is a bit better than he's projecting (659). We scored 701 runs last year.

Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 12:17 PM
I'm pretty sure the runs scored projections are based on the Twins not having high OBP candidates for the first and second spot in the order. Hicks, Carroll, Dozier, etc could wind up better than expectations, resulting in more runs being scored.

Willihammer
03-13-2013, 12:34 PM
Mike Cuddyer = Josh Hamilton?

JB_Iowa
03-13-2013, 12:43 PM
Mike Cuddyer = Josh Hamilton?

Isn't it more whether Josh Hamilton 2013 = Josh Hamilton 2012?

Willihammer
03-13-2013, 12:54 PM
I suspect its more about park effects.

I find any projection system amusing enough, but when you zero in on wildcards like Hamilton they really shine.

glunn
03-13-2013, 01:26 PM
This is good news and I am glad that I have bet the "over" in Vegas. If the Twins win more than 68 games, then I will win the bet.

LaBombo
03-13-2013, 03:29 PM
But do we really believe that this lineup is 42 runs worse than last year’s version?


Sure. They lost Span and Revere, and there's a chance that neither Hicks or Mastro will measure up immediately as offensive replacements. Willingham is 34 and a candidate for some regression from his career year. Doumit will be 32 and is coming off a career high for PA's, so a tad less production in 2013 seems plausible. Carroll is 113 in middle infielder years. The rest of the middle infielders might be better than last year, but by how much?

mike wants wins
03-13-2013, 09:53 PM
Even if it is the same....what is that, a few more wins? Still well under 80, well under. And while the pitching has to be better, the RF defense will be much worse.