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Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 01:30 AM
Think about a position player roster with these 14 players in 2016.

Mauer
Vargas
Sano
Rosario
Goodrum
Polanco
Dozier
Kepler
Buxton
Hicks
Arcia
Herrmann
Santana
Pinto

(Roberts, Walker, Ortiz, Morales, Michael, Beresford, Koch)

Oxtung
03-13-2013, 04:09 AM
That certainly is an exciting list! You listed off 20 prospects not including Mauer obviously. How many of those 20 do people expect to come up and be average or better players in MLB?

2wins87
03-13-2013, 09:56 AM
I'd hope for Harrison over Vargas at 1B (assuming Sano is at 3B and Mauer is still catching on some sort of regular basis).

Assuming Rosario and Goodrum stick at second and short, that's a crowded middle infield situation, otherwise it's a crowded OF situation.

birdwatcher
03-13-2013, 10:06 AM
I can't get too excited about the ceilings of Pinto and Herrmann, and hope the Twins replace Doumit with a FA catcher when the time comes. Vargas and Goodrum strike me as boom or bust, and if we go 1 for 2 with those two, that would be a bonus. I think we have been given solid evidence that we should be very excited about the others.

2wins87
03-13-2013, 10:18 AM
That certainly is an exciting list! You listed off 20 prospects not including Mauer obviously. How many of those 20 do people expect to come up and be average or better players in MLB?

Sano's bat should be above average at any position.

All of the outfielders have a good chance of being above average there. That could be an incredible defense outfield.

If Rosario is able to improve enough defensively to stay at second his bat definitely profiles as above average there. He could be at least average in left field also.

Polanco is a long way away, so he could probably still go either way.

Santana looks like a solid defender, but is probably unlikely to be any better than average. Same goes for Dozier.

Vargas has interesting power potential, but probably wont do the other stuff well enough to be above average.

Goodrum has tools but will need to continue to make large strides for either his defense or his offense to play at a major league level.

I don't think anyone expects Hermann or Pinto to be more than backups.

The rest could probably be role players.

kab21
03-13-2013, 10:23 AM
Rosario, goodrum, Dozier, Polanco is not a crowded MI situation. It's a situation where you hope that 2 of them become avg players. That might be a little optimistic.

As of right now I'm only high enough on 6 of them that I think they could be average or better players. Most of the bottom of the list will be very successful to have 4th OF'er or UT IF'er MLB roles. The important thing that I see is that the Twins will potentially have more than 50% of their offensive starters making the MLB min and that should enable the team to put together a pretty solid run.

You left off Plouffe and Parmelee. both of these guys can be average MLB starters.

2wins87
03-13-2013, 10:31 AM
Rosario, goodrum, Dozier, Polanco is not a crowded MI situation. It's a situation where you hope that 2 of them become avg players. That might be a little optimistic.

Santana's on the list too. But overall I agree that right now the hope is that the Twins end up with one good regular shortstop and one good regular second baseman, not that they have to make room in a middle infield bursting with talent.

diehardtwinsfan
03-13-2013, 10:34 AM
That certainly is an exciting list! You listed off 20 prospects not including Mauer obviously. How many of those 20 do people expect to come up and be average or better players in MLB?

Speaking from potential, just about all of them. Reality though is that many won't make it.

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 11:56 AM
Clearly some of these guys will be traded, but so could Plouffe and Parmelee (the latter almost certainly will be--in fact I would not be totally surprised if the Twins traded both Morneau and Parmelee before the beginning of next season, much like the Span-Revere situation this year). I think that all of them have league average or better capabilities. Now, again, think about the Twins for the past two years, this year, and then compare to this list.

Gardy32
03-13-2013, 12:44 PM
Have we completely given up on Levi Michael? Or is he not expected to be here yet in 2016?

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 01:06 PM
I have not given up on him. I do think he has the potential to be a candidate. If I would have mentioned him here, though, I would have REALLY heard it from people. :)

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 01:09 PM
Have we completely given up on Levi Michael? Or is he not expected to be here yet in 2016?

Not all hope is gone in regards to Michael but more and more, it's looking like he might have the ceiling of a futility infielder.

diehardtwinsfan
03-13-2013, 01:18 PM
This really is a make/break season for him. He needs to do something in AA other than look pedestrian.

Siehbiscuit
03-13-2013, 02:03 PM
Clearly some of these guys will be traded, but so could Plouffe and Parmelee (the latter almost certainly will be--in fact I would not be totally surprised if the Twins traded both Morneau and Parmelee before the beginning of next season, much like the Span-Revere situation this year). I think that all of them have league average or better capabilities. Now, again, think about the Twins for the past two years, this year, and then compare to this list.

I don't know why we would be so quick to dismiss a 1B prospect like Parmalee?! He was the Twins #1 pick a few years back due to his bat. He annihilated AAA pitching last year. Let him have a year to adjust to MLB pitching and he could still be a solid to very good 1B for the Twins for quite some time. Prospects are always 'sexier' but Parmalee has a proven minor league track record.

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 02:13 PM
I don't know why we would be so quick to dismiss a 1B prospect like Parmalee?! He was the Twins #1 pick a few years back due to his bat. He annihilated AAA pitching last year. Let him have a year to adjust to MLB pitching and he could still be a solid to very good 1B for the Twins for quite some time. Prospects are always 'sexier' but Parmalee has a proven minor league track record.

Except that most of his track record isn't very good. I'm not down on Parmelee but I'm not terribly high on him, either. He had a lot of mediocre games under his belt before he broke out in AAA.

It's hard to say which is the "real" Chris Parmelee.

PseudoSABR
03-13-2013, 02:16 PM
The only way Parmalee is traded any time soon is 1) if he establishes value at the MLB level (he hasn't) 2) he is blocking one or more near-ready prospects (he's not).

Maybe as Parm approaches arbitration...

diehardtwinsfan
03-13-2013, 03:33 PM
I don't see Parm getting traded for no other reason than that he's not being blocked (at least until Morneau is figured out) and isn't blocking anyone. I'd say based on his AAA season in 2012, he has value now... though his minor league history tempers that a bit.

diehardtwinsfan
03-13-2013, 03:35 PM
Except that most of his track record isn't very good. I'm not down on Parmelee but I'm not terribly high on him, either. He had a lot of mediocre games under his belt before he broke out in AAA.

It's hard to say which is the "real" Chris Parmelee.

I think you see him short a bit. It was no secret that the Twins had to do some extensive rework of his swing, as he was looking like a guy who could hit .220 with 30 bombs. Their approach sapped his power initially but got that average up to something a bit more palatable. The biggest thing about AA and then AAA is that the power returned. While I agree that his track record doesn't look as rosy as we'd like, I think there is good reason to think the kid can be an above average regular at first.

ashburyjohn
03-13-2013, 03:43 PM
This really is a make/break season for him. He needs to do something in AA other than look pedestrian.

For Levi Michael? If he doesn't shine this year, he'll still get chances until he's 24 at least. As a first-rounder, he'll get the benefit of doubt a while longer.

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 04:31 PM
It isn't a knock against Parmelee, I just mean that Sano is likely headed there. And maybe Vargas or even Kepler.

I didn't say they were trading him today. I could see it happening after the season if they want to just hold down the position for awhile for Sano.

I hope for 2013 Twins numbers akin to his 2011 AA numbers. That would be fine by me and it would increase his value.

mnfanforlife
03-13-2013, 07:27 PM
Parm is probably going to stick at 1B for Minnesota. I think its more likely that Morneau and Willingham go the way of Span/Revere.

Then MN is patient with Sano at 3B and Vargas will probably DH in 2 years from now

kab21
03-13-2013, 11:45 PM
Imo Parmelee is just a placeholder but he will be needed for several seasons. Talk of Sano, Vargas, Kepler and also Harrison being the future at 1B is nice but it will take years for that to happen. In a way he's like a completely different version of Dougie Alphabet. he looks solid but not great.

FWIW - Kepler's future is in the OF until he gets close to the majors and the Twins have a stacked OF already. Currently that's an 'if' situation. It could happen but that's counting on a lot of prospects to become good MLB'ers. Chances are that 1 or more massively disappoint.

Shane Wahl
03-14-2013, 12:59 AM
The thing is that there is no indication that the player at the very top: (Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler) are going to struggle and falter. They ALL look like legitimate MLBers in the future. So Mauer, 3B, and the middle infield are left).

ashburyjohn
03-14-2013, 01:11 AM
The thing is that there is no indication that the player at the very top: (Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler) are going to struggle and falter. They ALL look like legitimate MLBers in the future. So Mauer, 3B, and the middle infield are left).

Even the Sure Things end up being 50/50 for a lot of reasons that collectively add up.

kab21
03-15-2013, 12:39 AM
The thing is that there is no indication that the player at the very top: (Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler) are going to struggle and falter. They ALL look like legitimate MLBers in the future. So Mauer, 3B, and the middle infield are left).

Way too optimistic.

Sano could be Wily Mo Pena. Buxton and Kepler haven't even played full season ball yet. If Rosario doesn't stick at 2B he needs to be in CF because he probably doesn't have the bat to play in the corners. Arcia has a high floor although he could end up as a platoon player since one knock before 2012 was that he could struggle against lefties. Hicks could hit .230 with a .300 OBP. He'll be a MLB'er almost for sure but not even one of these prospects have the floor of an above average regular.

You might think I'm a pessimist but I'm more of a realist. I'm actually very excited about this group of hitting prospects and I think this group will produce enough to provide the Twins with an extremely good offensive core that will only need a few trade/FA additions to complete but there is absolutely no way that none of them will struggle or falter. If half of them end up as average ballplayers then the Twins are on their way to being set for the future.

stringer bell
03-19-2013, 10:06 PM
Both Parmelee and Plouffe found their power stroke in the high minors and have shown flashes in the big leagues. The path is clear for both of them but they won't have unlimited time to establish themselves. I am relatively confident that both will succeed, but I'll not be shocked if either or both fail. Both guys were #1 choices so it shouldn't be a surprise if they succeed.