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Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 12:08 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1451-Samuel-Deduno-showing-progress-in-World-Baseball-Classic

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 12:13 AM
Some things appear to be off in this article, but I realized the same thing about Deduno. This is a good sign. But it just makes this Correia abomination way worse.

Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 12:29 AM
Something is fudged up. Brock's working on getting some solutions as to why the GIFs are not appearing. Check back tomorrow to see it in full glory.

h2oface
03-13-2013, 12:35 AM
new......... and improved?

glunn
03-13-2013, 02:40 AM
I am a big fan of Deduno and hope that he has found a way to decrease his walk rate. If that happens, he can be awesome. I am setting my DVR for Thursday's game!

Teflon
03-13-2013, 04:12 AM
People need to look a pitchers like Deduno a little more closely and understand that the high walk rate which is such a flashing number in his pitching stats is not as negative an indicator as people would have you think given Deduno's low hit rate.

Compare two pitchers with similar WHIPs and the pitcher with the higher walk rate will fare better because a walk only puts the batter on first base and only advances base runners in a force situations a single base while hits will result in more total bases for both batters and runners.

Liam Hendriks (1.547) and Sam Deduno (1.544) had nearly identical WHIPs for the Twins last year but Hendriks' was based on 11.2 H/9 and 2.7 BB/9 while Sam's was from 7.9 H/9 and a 6.0 BB/9. Hendriks surrendered 184 total bases to batters versus only 112 for Deduno. This means that for the same number of batters put on base, Deduno gave up 65% fewer total bases. (And this doesn't even account for the extra bases by base runners.) In a similar number of innings pitched (85 for Hendriks, 79 for Deduno) Deduno gave up 21 fewer runs.

I won't throw Liam's 1-8 mark in the argument because his run support was horrible (3.4 runs per game.) while Deduno's was decent at 5.1. (and, by the way, Diamond got 6.0. Care to guess what kind of pitcher Diamond will be in 2013 with, say, a run and a half fewer per game?)

gil4
03-13-2013, 08:12 AM
Compare two pitchers with similar WHIPs and the pitcher with the higher walk rate will fare better because a walk only puts the batter on first base...

It also seems like walk rate is an area where pitchers will take a big leap forward, although it usually happens well before age 29 if it's going to happen. Still, a guy who misses bats and stays healthy could very well be on the verge of being a good pitcher.

birdwatcher
03-13-2013, 08:56 AM
Great post, Teflon. Thanks!

old nurse
03-13-2013, 09:06 AM
People need to look a pitchers like Deduno a little more closely and understand that the high walk rate which is such a flashing number in his pitching stats is not as negative an indicator as people would have you think given Deduno's low hit rate.

Compare two pitchers with similar WHIPs and the pitcher with the higher walk rate will fare better because a walk only puts the batter on first base and only advances base runners in a force situations a single base while hits will result in more total bases for both batters and runners.

Liam Hendriks (1.547) and Sam Deduno (1.544) had nearly identical WHIPs for the Twins last year but Hendriks' was based on 11.2 H/9 and 2.7 BB/9 while Sam's was from 7.9 H/9 and a 6.0 BB/9. Hendriks surrendered 184 total bases to batters versus only 112 for Deduno. This means that for the same number of batters put on base, Deduno gave up 65% fewer total bases. (And this doesn't even account for the extra bases by base runners.) In a similar number of innings pitched (85 for Hendriks, 79 for Deduno) Deduno gave up 21 fewer runs.

I won't throw Liam's 1-8 mark in the argument because his run support was horrible (3.4 runs per game.) while Deduno's was decent at 5.1. (and, by the way, Diamond got 6.0. Care to guess what kind of pitcher Diamond will be in 2013 with, say, a run and a half fewer per game?)
Hendricks has shown an ability to be very good at a level for a longer stretch than 4 innings. See last year in the minors as well as 2010. Deduno has not ever shown that. Hendricks has shown that he can be much better than a 1.5 whip pitcher, Deduno has not.

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 09:14 AM
I believe the phrase of the day is "SWEEP THE LEG, SAMMY".

Brandon
03-13-2013, 09:26 AM
If he lowers his walk rate to around 4 per 9 then he could be this generations Dave Stewart. He didn't have much success until his late 20's then out of know where won 20 games a year 4 years in a row. While I won't expect 20 wins a year, Dedunno could put together 3-7 years of 12-15 wins as a starter. I think a pitcher like him makes the rest of the rotation better because of the way he pitches is a different look then the other starters.

cmathewson
03-13-2013, 10:04 AM
Looking at the raw data from last year is only partly helpful. I'd like to see the trend line. When he came up, he was walking five, six guys a game and pitching five, six innings a start.

He did that for about a month and Anderson got him to make some adjustments. Most notably, he had the catcher sit down the middle and Deduno would throw it at the mit and the ball would move over the corner for a strike. Prior to that, he would try to hit the corner and it would move off the plate. Consequently, he was only throwing his fastball for strikes once every fourth or fifth time. Hence all the 3-0 counts. But late in the year, he was throwing strikes with his fastball and guys started swinging early in the count. When they did, they hit weak grounders. When they didn't he finished them off with the slider.

Slowly, the walk rate lowered. By the end of the year, he was walking something like 3/9. Meanwhile, his BA against was under .200. He carried that over into winter ball and dominated. Now he's keeping it going in the WBC. The big test will be tomorrow, when he starts against a USA line-up that could beat most all-star teams. Because he's been away from camp, we've kind of forgotten about him. But with Hendriks and Gibson struggling, he could make this team with a strong showing tomorrow.

Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 10:19 AM
Slowly, the walk rate lowered. By the end of the year, he was walking something like 3/9.

This is the perfect example of why K/9 and BB/9 are not good indicators of a pitcher's workload -- always (ALWAYS) use K% and BB% over that.

In his first 46 innings, he walked 36 batters in 46 innings -- a 5.8 BB/9 ratio. In his last 33 innings - presumably after these changes from Anderson - we walked 17, an improved 4.6 BB/9, right? HOWEVER, if you look at the overall pool of batters faced, Deduno actually walked more hitters in the latter sample (8.5% in last 33 innings versus 5.6% over first 46)

jimbo92107
03-13-2013, 10:25 AM
People need to look a pitchers like Deduno a little more closely and understand that the high walk rate which is such a flashing number in his pitching stats is not as negative an indicator as people would have you think given Deduno's low hit rate.

Compare two pitchers with similar WHIPs and the pitcher with the higher walk rate will fare better because a walk only puts the batter on first base and only advances base runners in a force situations a single base while hits will result in more total bases for both batters and runners.

Teflon's comment suggests a more general point... Statistical regression is difficult to predict with a pitcher whose success depends on a certain degree of natural unpredictability. Sam Deduno's style indeed hinges on peppering the area in and around the strike zone with sliding, ducking fastballs. The downside of such a style is a high walk rate; the upside is a lot of whiffs and really lame contact.

One thing I've noticed about Deduno, and the reason I find him fascinating, is that he appears to have developed a style that fits his abilities. He's an excellent fielder, quick as a good shortstop. His whippy arm motion is unusual for an overhand delivery, but it appears not to damage his shoulder or elbow. Ever notice that his throws to first and second base are straight as an arrow and pinpoint accurate? Deduno knows very well how to throw a ball straight.

Whether his new, more whirly deliver results in better accuracy is yet to be seen, but it's not impossible. The fact that he falls off so far to his left indicates that he is accelerating in that direction from the start. Does that delivery really look more repeatable to you than his supposedly more disciplined finish from last year? Throwing a baseball combines straight line and rotational movements. When you find a good recipe of such whippy movements, you can wind up with a Roger Federer forehand, or a Sam Deduno fastball for a strike.

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 10:50 AM
This is the perfect example of why K/9 and BB/9 are not good indicators of a pitcher's workload -- always (ALWAYS) use K% and BB% over that.

In his first 46 innings, he walked 36 batters in 46 innings -- a 5.8 BB/9 ratio. In his last 33 innings - presumably after these changes from Anderson - we walked 17, an improved 4.6 BB/9, right? HOWEVER, if you look at the overall pool of batters faced, Deduno actually walked more hitters in the latter sample (8.5% in last 33 innings versus 5.6% over first 46)

Excellent point, Parker. I tend to fall back in K/9 and BB/9, even though I know it's wrong. I need to stop doing that.

mike wants wins
03-13-2013, 10:52 AM
It would sure help if he could be a marginally decent starter for this team....

cmathewson
03-13-2013, 10:57 AM
This is the perfect example of why K/9 and BB/9 are not good indicators of a pitcher's workload -- always (ALWAYS) use K% and BB% over that.

In his first 46 innings, he walked 36 batters in 46 innings -- a 5.8 BB/9 ratio. In his last 33 innings - presumably after these changes from Anderson - we walked 17, an improved 4.6 BB/9, right? HOWEVER, if you look at the overall pool of batters faced, Deduno actually walked more hitters in the latter sample (8.5% in last 33 innings versus 5.6% over first 46)

I must confess I don't get this. You seem to be saying that his walk rate went up even though his walks-per-innings-pitched went down. As far as I can tell, the only way to make sense of that statement is to say his walk rate went down in a smaller sample of innings than his previously higher walk rate. I don't see how that's helpful. Our judgement of him should not be deprecated because the season ended before he had a chance to put up an even number of innings after the adjustment as before.

Either way, we are dealing with small samples, and it's really hard to project such an unpredictable player with such small samples. All I know is, since the adjustment, and including his winter ball and WBC innings, his walk rate is in the area where he can be successful with such a low BA against. Relative to the current competition (Cole DeVries, who walks hardly anyone but gives up a lot of hits) his WHIP should be lower, giving him a better chance at success.

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 11:06 AM
I must confess I don't get this. You seem to be saying that his walk rate went up even though his walks-per-innings-pitched went down. As far as I can tell, the only way to make sense of that statement is to say his walk rate went down in a smaller sample of innings than his previously higher walk rate. I don't see how that's helpful. Our judgement of him should not be deprecated because the season ended before he had a chance to put up an even number of innings after the adjustment as before.

It's pretty simple. A guy doesn't face the same amount of batters in every inning.

If he K's 5 guys in a nine inning game, that's a 5 K/9 ratio.

But let's say he pitched two nine inning games and struck out 5 guys in both.

But in one game, he walked 8 batters, gave up 10 hits, and hit 3 batters. That means he struck out 5 of a possible 48 batters (27 outs, 8 walks, 10 hits, 3 HBP).

In the other game, he walked 4 batters, gave up 5 hits, and hit no one. That means he struck out 5 of a possible 36 batters (27 outs, 4 walks, 5 hits).

Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 11:06 AM
Here's a more detailed explanation as to why to stop using K/9 & BB/9:


What happens when we use the 'per 9' metrics is that we lose accuracy, because our measurements have become subject to the tyrannical forces of BAbip. As a pitcher allows more Hits per Ball in Play, he becomes less efficient. He ends up facing more batters and getting fewer outs, which consequently means fewer innings. But if he's still striking out batters at the same rate (say 20%) all the while, his K/9 is going to look a lot shinier with those fewer Innings.

Stop using K/9 and BB/9! - Beyond the Box Score (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/10/8/3451856/mlb-pitching-k9-bb9-plate-appearances-sabermetrics)

Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 11:09 AM
Well, Brock laid it out in an easier to digest format...

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 11:11 AM
Well, Brock laid it out in an easier to digest format...

i r understend teh simpel things

kab21
03-13-2013, 11:13 AM
Great post, Teflon. Thanks!

One part that Teflon missed in his analysis was that Deduno's low hit rate was due to a low BAPIP (.266). Hendriks OTOH posted a .313 BAPIP. If Deduno's BAPIP is normal for pitchers then his hit rate will be a lot higher (WHIP also) and those walks are going to hurt even more than they did last year.

If he's going to walk a lot of batters then he's going to need to K a lot to be successful.

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 11:20 AM
I keep getting sucked into my hatred for the Correia signing on a weekly basis around here. Part of that is that I read MLB's Twins offseason analysis and it was just so damn blunt about how terrible the signing was. It isn't just that money is wasted, it is that Deduno and/or DeVries might actually have *better* seasons than Correia if given the chance. And at 1/9 the cost this year and 1/10 of it next year.

cmathewson
03-13-2013, 11:24 AM
Point is, these sample sizes make the distinction tenuous at best. I get it over the course of a whole season or something. You're just controlling more variables. But over 80 innings, it's probably not all that helpful. If he's getting more groundouts and fewer Ks over 33 innings than he did over the previous 46 innings, what does that mean? It could mean a lot of things. Here I think Pitch F/X data might be more helpful.

Parker Hageman
03-13-2013, 11:37 AM
If he's getting more groundouts and fewer Ks over 33 innings than he did over the previous 46 innings, what does that mean?

Well, simply put, it means that Deduno was walking MORE batters in his second-half of the season after Anderson made some mechanical changes not less. Big picture, using innings as the denominator for measurement of strikeouts and walks paints an inaccurate picture of a pitcher's success versus what their true workload is: batters faced.


One part that Teflon missed in his analysis was that Deduno's low hit rate was due to a low BAPIP (.266). Hendriks OTOH posted a .313 BAPIP. If Deduno's BAPIP is normal for pitchers then his hit rate will be a lot higher (WHIP also) and those walks are going to hurt even more than they did last year.

There is a significant difference between how opponents were putting the ball in play against Deduno compared to Hendriks which led to that vast chasm in BABIP marks. Hitters were not squaring up on Deduno. For example, Deduno had a 58% groundball rate versus Hendriks' 41%. Meanwhile, 17% of the fly balls hit off of Deduno did not leave the infield. More weak contact. Both are likely to equalize closer to league average over the course of a regular season but I would wager Deduno would be able to keep his beneath the average while Hendriks would stay over that figure.

Nick Nelson
03-13-2013, 12:06 PM
Teflon made a great point in his earlier post, and it's something I spoke to last season (http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=938-Deciphering-Deduno). Deduno is what you'd call "effectively wild"; a high walk-rate is part of his game. He doesn't know where his pitches are going to end up and neither do opposing batters, contributing to consitently weak contact evidenced by low hit rates and homer rates over the course of his career. It's true that you'd rather have a guy walk to first than run to second or third, or jog around the diamond.

That being said, a BB/9 of 6.0 is unpalatable, so Parker's writeup here is encouraging.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-13-2013, 12:25 PM
I really like the gifs in this. The movement on the pitch (despite the uglier leg kick) was really awesome. Also, that was an amazing squeeze in the 2nd.

kab21
03-13-2013, 12:28 PM
There is a significant difference between how opponents were putting the ball in play against Deduno compared to Hendriks which led to that vast chasm in BABIP marks. Hitters were not squaring up on Deduno. For example, Deduno had a 58% groundball rate versus Hendriks' 41%. Meanwhile, 17% of the fly balls hit off of Deduno did not leave the infield. More weak contact. Both are likely to equalize closer to league average over the course of a regular season but I would wager Deduno would be able to keep his beneath the average while Hendriks would stay over that figure.

It should be worth noting that GB's have a higher BAPIP than FB's. They are of course way better than FB's since they only go for singles. it's the line drives that kill pitchers and neither Deduno nor hendriks did well there.

Bottom line though is that Deduno needs to approach a 2:1 k:bb ratio to be halfway successful imo. I don't care how he does it (more K's or less BB's) but a 1:1 k:BB ratio belongs in AAA.

Oldgoat_MN
03-13-2013, 01:29 PM
I have long felt that a little wildness is not always a bad thing.
Deduno is a wildcard, but I hope he gets a shot as a SP.
It would be wonderful if he could surprise us. (and all of MLB)

bear333
03-13-2013, 02:12 PM
Some things appear to be off in this article, but I realized the same thing about Deduno. This is a good sign. But it just makes this Correia abomination way worse.

I'm concerned about Correia, as well. By the way, there were only two Twins starters with a winning record last year and Deduno was one of them. Even with his walks he may end up being more effective then a couple of the guys we are going to start the season with. I would like to see him as a 5th or 6th starter, to be honest. I love his wicked fast ball.

darin617
03-13-2013, 08:54 PM
Can't any team claim him if they want since he is not on the 40 man roster? How messed up would that be if he got straightened out and was picked up by another team.

70charger
03-13-2013, 10:14 PM
Can't any team claim him if they want since he is not on the 40 man roster? How messed up would that be if he got straightened out and was picked up by another team.

They could have (past tense). The Rule 5 draft doesn't go on constantly; it was over in December.

johnnydakota
03-14-2013, 06:40 AM
If Samuel Deuno doesnt make the starting 5 , I hope we use him as a long reliever or spot starter , till the suspects fail.

johnnydakota
03-14-2013, 06:42 AM
They could have (past tense). The Rule 5 draft doesn't go on constantly; it was over in December.

If sent down he could be claimed ....

JB_Iowa
03-14-2013, 07:54 AM
Looking forward to watching him tonight v R. A. Dickey (and the batters from Team USA).

SweetOne69
03-14-2013, 08:16 AM
If sent down he could be claimed ....

Only if he is added to the 40-man roster and then DFA'd.

He is currently not on the 40-man roster and was re-signed by the Twins to minor league contract.

nicksaviking
03-14-2013, 09:30 AM
What's the over/under on how many swings Mauer takes against Deduno tonight? Assuming 2 or 3 at bats, I'm putting the over/under at 2.

ashburyjohn
03-14-2013, 01:23 PM
What's the over/under on how many swings Mauer takes against Deduno tonight? Assuming 2 or 3 at bats, I'm putting the over/under at 2.

Yes, I expect somebody expects to school the other one. I'd put my money on Mauer, but it would be great news if it came out something like a draw in this clash of titans.

darin617
03-14-2013, 05:01 PM
If sent down he could be claimed ....

Thank you, that was exactly what I was trying to say. I am not saying who is going to turn into another RA Dickey but I would rather have him on the club than Kevin Correia for $5M a year.

h2oface
03-14-2013, 07:45 PM
If Deduno didn't win a spot on the starting rotation after what he did to the American team line up tonight......... the decision people aren't paying attention.

jokin
03-14-2013, 08:09 PM
If Deduno didn't win a spot on the starting rotation after what he did to the American team line up tonight......... the decision people aren't paying attention.

But, but, what about the 40-man roster connundrum...? They might have to expose Swarzak or something..../s

Brad Swanson
03-14-2013, 09:16 PM
If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

ashburyjohn
03-14-2013, 09:37 PM
If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

Considering Correia has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, and last year Deduno averaged 89 pitches per start which amounted to only just above 5 innings per start, I think you may have constructed a pretty safe bet for yourself in 2013-14 with that "if" clause, my brother. :)

Brad Swanson
03-14-2013, 09:45 PM
89 pitches in just over 5 innings! If Kevin Slowey did that, everyone would be calling for his books!

Brad Swanson
03-14-2013, 10:18 PM
I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere.

As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small.

When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6.

I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012:

Innings
Correia - 79.2
Deduno - 73.2

ERA
Correia - 4.07
Deduno - 4.40

FIP
Correia - 3.47
Deduno - 5.28

K%
Correia - 15.8%
Deduno - 16.6%

Starts
Correia - 12
Deduno - 14

Is this the only factor we are focusing on:

Salary
Correia - 5 mil
Deduno - League Min

If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

Brock Beauchamp
03-14-2013, 10:40 PM
Adjust those stats for league and Deduno looks like the better pitcher, if only by a hair (other than the huge discrepancy in FIP). Yikes.

Riverbrian
03-14-2013, 10:51 PM
I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere.

As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small.

When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6.

I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012:

Innings
Correia - 79.2
Deduno - 73.2

ERA
Correia - 4.07
Deduno - 4.40

FIP
Correia - 3.47
Deduno - 5.28

K%
Correia - 15.8%
Deduno - 16.6%

Starts
Correia - 12
Deduno - 14

Is this the only factor we are focusing on:

Salary
Correia - 5 mil
Deduno - League Min

If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

I agree with you about Correia... I think he has been pre-attacked by some. If you look at his performance start by start last year... It's not overwhelming but its decent and an improvement over what we were throwing outside of Diamond last year.

The 2nd year is my problem but if that's what it took... It's what it took.

On Deduno... I am high on Deduno (that sounds like it came from Cheech and Chong). It's purely from a stuff stand point. If he can harness that movement... He can be a plus pitcher easy... I just don't know if he can cuz he's getting long in the tooth.

As dominating as he was tonight (which says a lot)... That breaking pitch was money... his fastball had a hard sink to it... but he created his own jams as well and that says a lot. He kept missing the strike zone when Bloomquist was trying to give up an out with a bunt and that says a lot.

I remain hopeful that he will nail his mechanics down... Get more comfortable in his skin... Trust his stuff and go to work. If he does... He will be a big value. I think it can happen.

Brock Beauchamp
03-14-2013, 10:56 PM
I agree with you about Correia... I think he has been pre-attacked by some. If you look at his performance start by start last year... It's not overwhelming but its decent and an improvement over what we were throwing outside of Diamond last year.

Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

ashburyjohn
03-15-2013, 12:04 AM
Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

He's better than his numbers. -- Terry Ryan

glunn
03-15-2013, 12:34 AM
Watching Deduno pitch tonight confirmed to me that he has a very high upside, but he could also be a disaster. Assuming that the Twins are probably not going to be contenders this year, I hope that Deduno gets a generous opportunity to prove himself.

It seems to me that Deduno looked significantly better tonight than he did last year. Do you agree?

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 12:41 AM
Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

glunn
03-15-2013, 01:02 AM
Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

I think that this is probably correct, but I have some doubts. First, maybe the Twins see potential in Correia that we don't see and maybe Correia will surprise us to the upside. Second, DeVries and Deduno are somewhat unproven.

Badsmerf
03-15-2013, 07:39 AM
First of all, the WBC is a small sample size. He got pretty lucky IMO. The USA chased a log of balls out of the zone and helped him get out of trouble. I'm disappointed by the poor AB's of the USA in the WBC. For all the hate MN fans give Joe Mauer, he's taken the best AB's and delivered in some tough spots.

Brock Beauchamp
03-15-2013, 07:53 AM
For all the hate MN fans give Joe Mauer, he's taken the best AB's and delivered in some tough spots.

Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

spideyo
03-15-2013, 08:24 AM
I wonder how much better Deduno would have done last night if Mauer hadn't been on the team to give them the full report on him.

The biggest thing last year that I noticed is that while he walked a lot of guys, the number of those walks that came around to score was surprisingly low. Not sure what, if any, stat would measure that. His shorter outings often seemed more because he drove his pitch count up because of the walks, rather than that he was actually pitching poorly.

Brad Swanson
03-15-2013, 08:42 AM
For me, walking a lot of batters is pitching poorly. He may have stranded a lot of those runners, but he may not strand them at such a high rate next season. He was at 77% last season, which is very high. That isn't to say he can't sustain it, but it is much higher than his minor league strand rates.

If his strand rate is a skill and not statistical noise, he could potentially keep up his "good" results. However, there are roughly 15 pitchers from the last 50 years with a walk rate as high as Deduno's. None achieved any level of sustained success. Those with the most success had much higher strikeout rates. Here is the list (at least 200 innings pitched):





Name
K%
BB%


Mitch Williams
21.20%
17.50%


Ken Wright
17.10%
17.00%


Brian Bruney
21.30%
15.80%


Carlos Marmol
30.10%
15.50%


John D'Acquisto
17.10%
15.50%


Mark Clear
22.30%
15.30%


Deduno
16.40%
15.30%


Doug Creek
22.20%
15.10%


Jose DeJesus
14.60%
15.00%


Renyel Pinto
21.90%
15.00%


Dan Warthen
16.70%
14.80%


Derrick Turnbow
23.40%
14.80%


Ed Correa
20.40%
14.80%


John Parrish
17.60%
14.80%

Willihammer
03-15-2013, 09:06 AM
Here's a question. How long would GardyAndy let Deduno get away with that leg sweep if he were pitching with the Twins?

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 09:32 AM
I think that this is probably correct, but I have some doubts. First, maybe the Twins see potential in Correia that we don't see and maybe Correia will surprise us to the upside. Second, DeVries and Deduno are somewhat unproven.

I would think that a 32 year old with 1000 career innings doesnt have much potential or upside at this point.

Nick Nelson
03-15-2013, 09:38 AM
Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

I said this on Twitter last night while watching the game, and it bears repeating: We often lose perspective on Mauer with all the local noise, but the fact that Torre has him batting fourth -- in this lineup -- says a lot about his reputation around the league as a hitter. And he has delivered, taking consistently better at-bats than anyone else in this star-laden group.

Regarding Deduno... he's the rare pitcher who is 29 but still has intriguing upside. His style is unconventional, but so was Dickey's when he came through the Twins' organization as a 34-year-old. Dickey was trying to figure out a hard knuckleball and it took him quite a while to master; Deduno's stuff, which darts all over the zone, has been likened to knucklers by some catchers. Could he be a late-bloomer in the same vein? I'd like to give him an extended chance to find out, if the alternatives are guys like Cole De Vries.

ThePuck
03-15-2013, 09:38 AM
Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

Exactly...and ERA+ covers this. His ERA+ last year was 88 and that's the best it's been over the last 3 years.

ThePuck
03-15-2013, 09:39 AM
Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

exactly!

jokin
03-15-2013, 09:39 AM
Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

I've been singing from the Filler Ds songbook the whole offseason. This search for a "pretty darn good FA pitcher" really was the long, strange trip to nowhere.

by jiminy
03-15-2013, 09:42 AM
Deduno is at least worth watching -- he's interesting! If you're not going to win much anyone, I'd rather watch strikeouts, wild pitches, walks, and unpredictable ball movement, where anything can happen on any pitch, than some mediocrity who keeps it around the plate and gets slowly but methodically scored on.

3up3down
03-15-2013, 09:43 AM
guys , this is pretty simple...the Mgr & pitching coach want somebody to be as consistent as possible , not have to worry are they going to get out of the 1st inning.. thats why they signed correia...deduno does have very nasty movement but he is always 1 pitch away from disaster & nothing has changed or clicked as some call it, he was 1 pitch from disaster last night & barely got out of the 1st inning & coaches just dont want that ...you can look at his numbers & rates & all that stuff but its a simple process if he keeps putting guys on base by walks or hit batters he will start to give up alot of runs at some point. i have said he would be a good pen guy & some disagree , but even last night he threw his slider 80% of the time , if he did that out of the pen he could dominate a inning ...but now he is trying to get ahead with the fastball & he has no idea where its going..his arm is going to fall off if he continues to throw that many sliders as a starting pitcher.

jokin
03-15-2013, 09:44 AM
Regarding Deduno... he's the rare pitcher who is 29 but still has intriguing upside. His style is unconventional, but so was Dickey's when he came through the Twins' organization as a 34-year-old. Dickey was trying to figure out a hard knuckleball and it took him quite a while to master; Deduno's stuff, which darts all over the zone, has been likened to knucklers by some catchers. Could he be a late-bloomer in the same vein?

So does this mean we'll be trading Deduno to the Mariners for Jair Fernandez, or releasing him so the Mets can sign him to their starting rotation a few months later?

cmathewson
03-15-2013, 09:50 AM
This is their upside:

Correia = Nick Blackburn circa 2008
Deduno = Francisco Liriano circa 2010
DeVries = Kevin Slowey circa 2010

This is their floor

Correia = Blackburn circa 2011
Deduno = Liriano circa 2012
DeVries = Slowey circa 2011

Cost differential is nominal. The second year of Correia is the main problem. If he pitches well, he's worth a second year, and he's also tradeable, if we don't want that burden. If not, he's not worth it and we can't trade him. That seems like a lot of risk. But it's what the market demanded, I guess.

I'm no Correia, fan, but it bugs me that that one signing flipped a switch from "TR is having a great offseason!" to "Fire TR, he sucks!" The Twins were known to have offers on the table for several pitchers But all but one decided to sign elsewhere, and we were left with Correia.

They are called free agents for a reason: They're free to choose the best offer for them, and not all of their decisions are based on $$$. For example, we had a competitive offer for Liriano, but he decided he wanted to pitch in the NL. So what are you going to do? Rumor has it, a similar thing happened with McCarthy. The Twins can't disclose this stuff, so they just take the criticism for decisions largely out of their hands. The only reason we know about Liriano is he told the press after he signed with the Pirates.

FrodaddyG
03-15-2013, 09:55 AM
The Twins were known to have offers on the table for several pitchers But all but one decided to sign elsewhere, and we were left with Correia.

Except Correia signed BEFORE most of the comparable guys, and got more money and years. They weren't "left" with Correia, they made a concerted effort to pick him above several others. Hence, the annoyance.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 10:14 AM
This is their upside:

Correia = Nick Blackburn circa 2008
Deduno = Francisco Liriano circa 2010
DeVries = Kevin Slowey circa 2010

This is their floor

Correia = Blackburn circa 2011
Deduno = Liriano circa 2012
DeVries = Slowey circa 2011

Cost differential is nominal. The second year of Correia is the main problem. If he pitches well, he's worth a second year, and he's also tradeable, if we don't want that burden. If not, he's not worth it and we can't trade him. That seems like a lot of risk. But it's what the market demanded, I guess.

I'm no Correia, fan, but it bugs me that that one signing flipped a switch from "TR is having a great offseason!" to "Fire TR, he sucks!" The Twins were known to have offers on the table for several pitchers But all but one decided to sign elsewhere, and we were left with Correia.

They are called free agents for a reason: They're free to choose the best offer for them, and not all of their decisions are based on $$$. For example, we had a competitive offer for Liriano, but he decided he wanted to pitch in the NL. So what are you going to do? Rumor has it, a similar thing happened with McCarthy. The Twins can't disclose this stuff, so they just take the criticism for decisions largely out of their hands. The only reason we know about Liriano is he told the press after he signed with the Pirates.

At least 14 starting pitchers who are basically in the same class as Correia, as far as talent, age and numbers, signed 1 year deals this offseason.
All but 3 of them signed for less than 5 million dollars.
I'm sorry but i'm just not buying it that the Twins would not be able to get a single one of these pitchers to come here on a 1 year deal, especially if they were willing to overpay by a million or so to get it done.
IMO, whats more likely, is that the Twins have some scout who has convinced them that Correia, despite a 1000 inning sample size, is actually somehow "better" than the rest of the guys in this grouping of FA starting pitchers, so they had their sights set on him from the start.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 10:16 AM
In fact, here is a direct quote from TR: (credit to AG.com)

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.
I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. ... I don't think we overpaid drastically in this situation. People that know him say that he's a good teammate and all that type of stuff, so you take all of that into consideration. We needed pitching badly, so we went and got him.

kab21
03-15-2013, 10:22 AM
The problem wasn't that they spent 10M on Correia (although that's not good either). The problem isn't that Deduno and Devries make 500K. The problem is that they could have doubled Corriea's contract and entered a tier of pitchers that are actually halfway decent. I'm not a big fan of the McCarthy's, Saunders' or Blanton's but I am more confident that they won't be another version of Marquis/Pitcherpottamus/Ortiz/Livan.

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:24 AM
Except Correia signed BEFORE most of the comparable guys, and got more money and years. They weren't "left" with Correia, they made a concerted effort to pick him above several others. Hence, the annoyance.

It's really quite simple. Look up the Twins transaction history in the offseason. A flurry of activity, signings, trades, "staffing maneuvers", (of course, masking the big excision in payroll).... in October, November and throughout December. January and February? Re-signed Duensing and Butera and the Raising of the Dead Resurrectional, "he's fully healthy and a starter!", signing of Perez at the start of ST.

It has all the hallmark of a month long or so "well-deserved" vacation in the front office that had chosen to "put their affairs in order", ala 2013 Puntage-Style.

Willihammer
03-15-2013, 10:33 AM
Did Liriano say anything about the Twins fielding a competitive offer? I thought he said "the Pirates offer was better."

By my count, the only guy Jr outbid the market for, was Harden for a whopping $1m. Speaking of which, is he throwing off a mound yet or still limited to 120 foot catch?

If Jr is to be believed, the Twins didn't even outbid the market for Correia.

So for the 2nd straight free agency, pitching was the Twins clearest weakness. And for the 2nd straight year, Jr basically did the same thing:

Correia : Marquis
Harden : Zumaya
Roenicke : Maloney
Pressly : Diamond
Perez : Burton

I see little reason to hope for anything better than what we saw from last offseason's acquisitions.

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:39 AM
Did Liriano say anything about the Twins fielding a competitive offer? I thought he said "the Pirates offer was better."

By my count, the only guy Jr outbid the market for, was Harden for a whopping $1m. Speaking of which, is he throwing off a mound yet or still limited to 120 foot catch?

If Jr is to be believed, the Twins didn't even outbid the market for Correia.

So for the 2nd straight free agency, pitching was the Twins clearest weakness. And for the 2nd straight year, Jr basically did the same thing:

Correia : Marquis
Harden : Zumaya
Roenicke : Maloney
Pressly : Diamond
Perez : Burton

I see little reason to hope for anything better than what we saw from last offseason's acquisitions.

Well-stated, what's that saying again about old dogs and new tricks? That the average Twins fan apparently accepts this after 2 seasons of utter inpetitude is mind-boggling. Or is the apathy factor bigger than apparent on the surface? Clearly, the televised media has largely ignored the Twins this spring, even with all the in-season ineptitude happening with the other sports entertainment options.

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 10:46 AM
Five extra million for Correia is irrelevant if you won't sign any legit FAs anyway.....seriously, at this point, it does not matter if they waste $5MM, if they won't spend money elsewhere.

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:52 AM
Five extra million for Correia is irrelevant if you won't sign any legit FAs anyway.....seriously, at this point, it does not matter if they waste $5MM, if they won't spend money elsewhere.

The relevance is the situation wherein the the Twins FO is making the Twins irrelavant through their questionable signings based on guys "better than the numbers indicate", resurrectional and reclamation pick-ups and Ryan's pathetic "woe is me" anti-marketing campaign in "selling" the Twins as a destination to prospective FAs and their agents.

The ironic thing is, he proved he can identify value and sign cheap replacement position players if he has a mind to, this year, nada.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 10:54 AM
Five extra million for Correia is irrelevant if you won't sign any legit FAs anyway.....seriously, at this point, it does not matter if they waste $5MM, if they won't spend money elsewhere.

The point is guaranteeing $5 million for next year.
You are right that they are not spending any money this year, but they have shown that they will spend up to their budget if they feel they can be competitive.
If some combonation of Hicks/Gibson/Dozier/Arcia/Hendricks/May/Meyer does enough to convince them that they have the young base in place to go ahead and spend money to put some legitimate free agent pieces around them, you'd hate to have $5million of that money wasted on a guy who might be our 7th or 8th best starting pitcher at that point.

Riverbrian
03-15-2013, 10:56 AM
Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

I'm pretty sure there will be American League Regression... It's a pretty typical occurance... However, if the American League regression happens while his uptrend continues we may not notice.

The 2nd year is still my primary concern with Kevin... He was never my first choice but I still think he has been pre-attacked. Maybe he will struggle and maybe he will keep us in a decent percentage of games.

I think it's safe to assume that he won't be confused with Verlander. Could Corriea be confused with Tim Hudson? For a year? He could... and until he actually fails... I'm going to keep assuming that he will at least be better than Blackburn was in 2012 and that will help us in 2013.

jokin
03-15-2013, 10:59 AM
I'm pretty sure there will be American League Regression... It's a pretty typical occurance... However, if the American League regression happens while his uptrend continues we may not notice.

The 2nd year is still my primary concern with Kevin... He was never my first choice but I still think he has been pre-attacked. Maybe he will struggle and maybe he will keep us in a decent percentage of games.

I think it's safe to assume that he won't be confused with Verlander. Could Corriea be confused with Tim Hudson? For a year? He could... and until he actually fails... I'm going to keep assuming that he will at least be better than Blackburn was in 2012 and that will help us in 2013.

Setting the bar low, smart move RB!

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 11:01 AM
I'm pretty sure there will be American League Regression... It's a pretty typical occurance... However, if the American League regression happens while his uptrend continues we may not notice.

The 2nd year is still my primary concern with Kevin... He was never my first choice but I still think he has been pre-attacked. Maybe he will struggle and maybe he will keep us in a decent percentage of games.

I think it's safe to assume that he won't be confused with Verlander. Could Corriea be confused with Tim Hudson? For a year? He could... and until he actually fails... I'm going to keep assuming that he will at least be better than Blackburn was in 2012 and that will help us in 2013.

What "uptrend" are we talking about?
His ERA improved last year, but that was just as likely due to luck (a career best babip which was 20 points better than his career babip) as it was to any improved skill. Sure his walk rate is trending down the last couple years, but so is his K rate, so thats basically a wash.

Riverbrian
03-15-2013, 11:26 AM
What "uptrend" are we talking about?
His ERA improved last year, but that was just as likely due to luck (a career best babip which was 20 points better than his career babip) as it was to any improved skill. Sure his walk rate is trending down the last couple years, but so is his K rate, so thats basically a wash.

It's an over simplication on my part... However, I can't speak to luck... I can't predict it and I won't declare it but I know it's a large part of the game and that goes for Verlander as well.

Basically from 2010 to 2012... Correia has gotten better each year... ERA and WHIP is trending in the right direction. I'm not saying that trend won't come to a complete stop in 2013. I'm just not going to let him ruin my off-season before he actually does fail for us.

And if he does fail... Deduno, Devries, Gibson, Meyer, May, Harden and even an improved Blackburn(who knows) are available to step in. So in the end... My issue with Correia is the 2nd year primarily... And maybe that is what it took to get him even if most don't want him.

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 11:30 AM
In fact, here is a direct quote from TR: (credit to AG.com)

Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers.
I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. ... I don't think we overpaid drastically in this situation. People that know him say that he's a good teammate and all that type of stuff, so you take all of that into consideration. We needed pitching badly, so we went and got him.

I am 100% certain this will not help you on this board......not many here believe that 30+ year old pitchers with long track records "are better than their numbers".....people are what they are, that's the beauty of number, they remove all the emotional BS like "great teammate" "good makeup".....none of that matters if it does not produce good numbers. None of it.

As has been stated, he basically, with that quote, proved everyone right that they are scouts 99%, and numbers people 1%, and that he's betting he is smarter than all the teams that use numbers and science and computers and stuff*

*note, that last part was a bit sarcastic, but largely true, imo

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 11:32 AM
The point is guaranteeing $5 million for next year.
You are right that they are not spending any money this year, but they have shown that they will spend up to their budget if they feel they can be competitive.
If some combonation of Hicks/Gibson/Dozier/Arcia/Hendricks/May/Meyer does enough to convince them that they have the young base in place to go ahead and spend money to put some legitimate free agent pieces around them, you'd hate to have $5million of that money wasted on a guy who might be our 7th or 8th best starting pitcher at that point.

You really think $5MM, on top of all those guys making the minumum, is going to matter? IF (and I do not think this is true, btw) you are right, and they are willing to spend money to clsoe a hole, and if all those guys are on the roster making the minimum, you think $5MM is going to matter? Not if your premise is true, that they are willing to spend money (which, imo, is not true, and we saw it again this year, and every previous year Ryan was GM).

Willihammer
03-15-2013, 11:35 AM
My issue with Correia is the 2nd year primarily.

If Correia's ERA+ keeps trending at +10 per year, he'll be above average in that 2nd year!

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 11:36 AM
It's an over simplication on my part... However, I can't speak to luck... I can't predict it and I won't declare it but I know it's a large part of the game and that goes for Verlander as well.

Basically from 2010 to 2012... Correia has gotten better each year... ERA and WHIP is trending in the right direction. I'm not saying that trend won't come to a complete stop in 2013. I'm just not going to let him ruin my off-season before he actually does fail for us.

And if he does fail... Deduno, Devries, Gibson, Meyer, May, Harden and even an improved Blackburn(who knows) are available to step in. So in the end... My issue with Correia is the 2nd year primarily... And maybe that is what it took to get him even if most don't want him.

No, you cant predict luck, so if by that you mean maybe he'll get lucky again this year, then sure, maybe he will. That seems like a risky bet to me though. I'd rather bank on talent and hope luck isnt a factor rather than vice versa.

As far as Correia demanding a 2nd year to get him, that would be akin to me asking a supermodel on a date, then demanding she pay for dinner.

I dont care what Terry Ryan or Dave st. Peter claim, Correia wasnt going to get 2 years from another club. Congrats to his agent for convincing them that he was, but it only takes a simple look at the offseason's transaction log to show that every single pitcher in Correia's tier got 1 year deals, so the market simply was not there for a 2 year deal.

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 11:39 AM
To be clear, I'm not defending either the signing or the 2nd year, both of which I HATE.

I am arguing that the 2nd year does not matter in the grand scheme of TR's approach to building a cheap roster.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 11:40 AM
You really think $5MM, on top of all those guys making the minumum, is going to matter? IF (and I do not think this is true, btw) you are right, and they are willing to spend money to clsoe a hole, and if all those guys are on the roster making the minimum, you think $5MM is going to matter? Not if your premise is true, that they are willing to spend money (which, imo, is not true, and we saw it again this year, and every previous year Ryan was GM).

Yes, that $5million could matter. The Twins have shown that they do not, and absolutely will not go over their "51%" model (obviously many years they dont even get to it, but they never go over it), so that $5 million could be the difference between signing an all star caliber player at a position of need, versus settling for just an above average player at that position.
Sure, its unlikely that the stars will all align in that fashion, but why commit money to next year when it was absolutely unnecessary?

Brock Beauchamp
03-15-2013, 11:44 AM
Wow. It happened.

I'm tired of Correia bashing! I no longer have it in me to rip on the guy!

It was a bad signing. He's a Twin now. It's time to just knuckle down and hope for the best.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 11:46 AM
To be clear, I'm not defending either the signing or the 2nd year, both of which I HATE.

I am arguing that the 2nd year does not matter in the grand scheme of TR's approach to building a cheap roster.

The second year might not matter, but there are scenarios in which it could matter.
One of them being, Correia completely stinks this year. We enter July and he has an ERA north of 6.
Now what do you do with him?
Last year with Marquis, it was easy, because he was only on a 1 year deal. Its very rare that you see a guy released with a contract extending beyond the current season, no matter how badly he plays, you are kind of stuck with him.
Which brings us to another scenario in which the second year could prove to be a problem.
Lets say that Meyer and or May completely dominate this year, and show that one or both is ready to compete for a starting spot in the lineup next year.
Lets say Gibson is up by then, and has established himself as one of our best 5, and so has Diamond.
You potentially put yourself in a situation where you feel tied to a guy because he's guaranteed 5 million dollars, and it could deny a spot in the rotation to a young guy, who is actually part of the long term solution, who would be making the league minimum.
There are many ways the 2nd year has the potential to hurt you, many of which are not foreseeable at this time, but could develop themselves as we go forward.
It was just so unnecessary.

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 11:52 AM
The money is a sunk cost.......the delta in ptiching May or Meyer, and sending down Correia is $500K. If they feel obligated to keep him up because they are paying him, they should be fired. This concept has been understood and taught in business school since the 80s.....

cmathewson
03-15-2013, 12:25 PM
At least 14 starting pitchers who are basically in the same class as Correia, as far as talent, age and numbers, signed 1 year deals this offseason.
All but 3 of them signed for less than 5 million dollars.
I'm sorry but i'm just not buying it that the Twins would not be able to get a single one of these pitchers to come here on a 1 year deal, especially if they were willing to overpay by a million or so to get it done.
IMO, whats more likely, is that the Twins have some scout who has convinced them that Correia, despite a 1000 inning sample size, is actually somehow "better" than the rest of the guys in this grouping of FA starting pitchers, so they had their sights set on him from the start.

What likely happened is TR offered three or four guys the same or similar deals and told their agents the first guy who signs gets a deal, after which the other offers are null and void. After he made the offers, he said "we're going to sign a pretty darn good pitcher." He was confident one of the three or four would sign, and Correia did.

None of those 14 guys are as good as Corriea, at least on a scouting basis. Maybe a few are by the numbers, but you don't pay for past numbers. You pay for future performance. Will Jason Marquis pitch better than Correia this year? After last year, I doubt any Twins scout would say that. Livan? Been there, done that. Go down the list and you have similar stories for each one.

You can say you're smarter than the Twins scouts. I personally will not say that. I defer to the professionals. Anyway, it's not that outlandish to say he will have a better year than those 14 suspects. To claim definitively that any one of them will have a better year is even more arrogant than saying you're smarter than Twins scouts. Besides, put it in context. What's a few million or an extra year when we're already $20 million under budget?

Badsmerf
03-15-2013, 12:32 PM
:banghead:

kab21
03-15-2013, 12:36 PM
Wow. It happened.

I'm tired of Correia bashing! I no longer have it in me to rip on the guy!

It was a bad signing. He's a Twin now. It's time to just knuckle down and hope for the best.

I'm just as sick of the Deduno/Devries is just as good as him. These guys shouldn't be considered plan A or plan B in an MLB rotation. Plan C for a few starts is about all that I'm okay with.

ThePuck
03-15-2013, 12:42 PM
:banghead:

I agree wholeheartedly

Riverbrian
03-15-2013, 01:32 PM
If Correia's ERA+ keeps trending at +10 per year, he'll be above average in that 2nd year!

I know... And by the time he's 36... We are talking 138 adjusted ERA bay-bee.

Woo hoo... The trend is your friend. ;)

johnnydakota
03-15-2013, 01:36 PM
Thank you, that was exactly what I was trying to say. I am not saying who is going to turn into another RA Dickey but I would rather have him on the club than Kevin Correia for $5M a year.

Agreed, if he is not our starter to begin the seaon then i hope he is the long reliever as i expet no less then 2 pitchers being hurt nd out for the season and at least another not having the stuff to keep his spot...isnt Samuel a 3 year player? if he is he should have an opt out contract that is required for all mlb players with 3 year srvice time .o me if you keep Drew on the 40 man and let Samuel walk then your seeing the intelegence level of the powers that be.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 01:53 PM
What likely happened is TR offered three or four guys the same or similar deals and told their agents the first guy who signs gets a deal, after which the other offers are null and void. After he made the offers, he said "we're going to sign a pretty darn good pitcher." He was confident one of the three or four would sign, and Correia did.

None of those 14 guys are as good as Corriea, at least on a scouting basis. Maybe a few are by the numbers, but you don't pay for past numbers. You pay for future performance. Will Jason Marquis pitch better than Correia this year? After last year, I doubt any Twins scout would say that. Livan? Been there, done that. Go down the list and you have similar stories for each one.

You can say you're smarter than the Twins scouts. I personally will not say that. I defer to the professionals. Anyway, it's not that outlandish to say he will have a better year than those 14 suspects. To claim definitively that any one of them will have a better year is even more arrogant than saying you're smarter than Twins scouts. Besides, put it in context. What's a few million or an extra year when we're already $20 million under budget?

What does that mean, "on a scouting basis"? How much can "scouting" determine when talking about a guy with 1000 career innings over a decade? At this point he is who he is.

And we didn't need to identify which one of those guys would be "the best". They are all going to be right around the same, give or take a little bit. We are not contending this year, the extra 1.5 to 2 wins that will separate #1 from #14 (and no, I dont mean W/L record) are completely meaningless to a 90 loss team. All we needed to do was get one of those guys, to have one more option to pitch some innings until some of the younger guys are ready. Any one of them would do just as well as any other one of them.
Get whichever one you can get on a 1 year deal, and call it a day.
Giving one of them a second year was completely pointless.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 01:58 PM
The money is a sunk cost.......the delta in ptiching May or Meyer, and sending down Correia is $500K. If they feel obligated to keep him up because they are paying him, they should be fired. This concept has been understood and taught in business school since the 80s.....

I'm not arguing that it is a logical thought process. Just that it's the reality. Teams dont cut veterans with years remaining on their contract, it just rarely ever happens, no matter how terrible they are playing.

PseudoSABR
03-15-2013, 02:17 PM
I'm not arguing that it is a logical thought process. Just that it's the reality. Teams dont cut veterans with years remaining on their contract, it just rarely ever happens, no matter how terrible they are playing.Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis say hello.

twinsnorth49
03-15-2013, 02:20 PM
:banghead: I'm with ya

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emo/angry/desperate-rage-smiley-emoticon.gif

twinsnorth49
03-15-2013, 02:25 PM
Back to Deduno, 7 K's in 4 innings is the most interesting thing any Twin pitcher has done this spring.....by far.

Against a real lineup no less.

Riverbrian
03-15-2013, 02:55 PM
Back to Deduno, 7 K's in 4 innings is the most interesting thing any Twin pitcher has done this spring.....by far.

Against a real lineup no less.

I just like watching him pitch... Pure baseball entertainment. It's like watching Evil Knievel jump over buses. On the edge and every once in awhile he bounces off the last bus.

He was one pitch from getting yanked in the 1st inning. The Bullpen was going and he was sitting 3-0 with the bases loaded against Adam Jones before coming back and getting the K on a beautiful spinner.

Baseball beauty at it's finest... Watching him struggle against Bloomquist who was just trying to bunt and I'm saying to myself... Just lay it in there... take the out... You can't walk a guy who is trying to bunt and he almost did.

Each time he walked off the mound... Arms pumped in the air following the K. Crisis avoided. How can you not love this game? I wish I would see that kind of emotion during the regular season.

I really hope that Deduno gets a good look when he gets back to Twins Camp. You are right... That and Hicks hitting 3 dingers is the spring training story thus far.

CDog
03-15-2013, 03:31 PM
Each time he walked off the mound... Arms pumped in the air following the K. Crisis avoided. How can you not love this game? I wish I would see that kind of emotion during the regular season.

I think I remember Deduno leaving the field exactly the same way several times last year.

I asked this in the thread about the game, but that seems to be left for dead while this one may still be a little more active. Anyone who watched feel like giving a brief recap of the Deduno vs. Mauer plate appearances?

mike wants wins
03-15-2013, 03:36 PM
I'd rather watch a random guy pitch, than a predictably bad guy pitch. I'd rather have a guy give me one great game, on ok game, and two bad games, than a guy give me 4 below average to bad game. At least with the first guy, you win 1 game, maybe three.....I don't get how predictability is a good thing, if the prediction is a 5+ERA....

Riverbrian
03-15-2013, 03:52 PM
I think I remember Deduno leaving the field exactly the same way several times last year.

I asked this in the thread about the game, but that seems to be left for dead while this one may still be a little more active. Anyone who watched feel like giving a brief recap of the Deduno vs. Mauer plate appearances?

Cdog... From Memory... It seemed like typical Mauer at the plate...

1st inning... Deduno just got the 2nd out of the inning by ringing up Ryan Braun... A runner was on when Joe stepped up and he ripped a single the opposite way to left. Deduno was looking pretty good until Joe singled... The Wheels then started to fall off a little... He walked Stanton fairly quickly and he didn't really look like he could find the zone and the bullpen got up and the Manager came out for a visit. He followed that with 3 bad pitches in a row to Adam Jones and you could see him blowing air out of his cheeks and he came back with 3 straight strikes to ring up Adam Jones.

In the Third? I think it was the third... He was working Joe inside and Joe grounded out to 1B. Deduno had settled down by this point and was looking like he belonged out there.

fairweather
03-15-2013, 03:58 PM
Deduno is far more compelling than Correia and Pelfrey. The Twins really sold the fans, the veteran players and Gardy down the stinking river with this rubbish.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 04:08 PM
Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis say hello.

Jason Marquis was a one year deal, and Nick Blackburn would still be in competition for a spot in the rotation if he was healthy.

diehardtwinsfan
03-16-2013, 12:36 PM
Unlike Corriea or Pelfrey, Deduno has potential upside to be something other than a 5 starter. I agree he's a project, but he could also turn into a pretty decent pitcher, even at 28. What I like about what he did, is that he surrendered 2 walks to a very patient team USA lineup. That will likely be the toughest lineup he faces all year long, and he went 4 innings, struck out 7, and only walked 2. Personally, I think he deserves a spot in the rotation, at the very least, he's more deserving of a spot on the 40 man than some of the other crap on it. This season is lost. Figuring out if a guy like Denduno can be an above average fill at a position of extreme need in this org for the forseable future is well worth it.