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John Bonnes
03-12-2013, 08:59 PM
Patrick Reusse, in his blog at ESPN 1500, evaluates the Twins and concludes their rebound is on it's way, as opposed to the dry spell of the 90s. He has several optimistic tidbits, including:


Oh, yeah, there's a shortstop the Twins love, too, in 21-year-old Danny Santana. The Santana-Rosario middle of the infield will be in place in 2014, if not sooner.

He also says Sano will find some time in The Show in 2014. They all seem a little optimistic to me.

Reusse's Reality from Florida: Not a rerun of 1993-2000 - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Reality_from_Fort_Myers_Not_a_rerun_of_19932000030 913)

glunn
03-12-2013, 09:14 PM
Interesting article -- thanks for posting it.

I hope that he is correct about Sano coming up in 2014. On the other hand, I worry that the Twins may decide to move Sano to first base or right field and that this will delay his ascent to the majors.

nicksaviking
03-12-2013, 10:05 PM
When I think of Reusse, I think more of his editorializing and not so much of his deep connections into the Twins front office.

Seven of the teams top ten prospects AND Santana AND Tonkin in a two year span? All of them could do it, but I doubt the organization will put themselves in a postion where everyone's on the same arbitration schedule.

jokin
03-12-2013, 10:19 PM
When I think of Reusse, I think more of his editorializing and not so much of his deep connections into the Twins front office.

Seven of the teams top ten prospects AND Santana AND Tonkin in a two year span? All of them could do it, but I doubt the organization will put themselves in a postion where everyone's on the same arbitration schedule.

This. They are certainly wise enough to stagger their arb schedule over at least 3 years.

Reusse appears to be using his SOP of going against the "conventional wisdom" to stir the pot. I'd like to think that Santana and Rosario could be the opening day MIs in 2014, but it would require an extraordinary set of developments, both in on the field performance and breaking with Twins tradition for promotions.

jokin
03-12-2013, 10:21 PM
Interesting article -- thanks for posting it.

I hope that he is correct about Sano coming up in 2014. On the other hand, I worry that the Twins may decide to move Sano to first base or right field and that this will delay his ascent to the majors.

It could be argued that a move to First Base could possibly accelerate Sano's schedule, especially if Morneau is gone and Parmelee doesn't pan out. Sano could learn 1B on-the-job and be less a liability in the field than over at 3B.

Gernzy
03-13-2013, 07:02 AM
The Twins have never been an organization that rushes up its prospects. I think 2014 would be alittle too soon for all of them. Sano 2015 at the earliest.

kab21
03-13-2013, 09:39 AM
I doubt this is anything more than a puff piece trying to maintain excitement. You can't very well sell fans on the idea that it's going to take 3-4 yrs to see some of the top prospects because that starts to approach the 90's debacle in the minds of fans.

Seth Stohs
03-13-2013, 09:56 AM
I'd say Hicks on Opening Day. Gibson by about May 15. Arcia by about June 25th. May and Rosario up in September 2013. Meyer up Opening Day of 2014. Sano and Tonkin probably June of 2014. Santana probably August of 2014, at the earliest. (all subject to change, of course, and all would be quickest case scenario.)

mike wants wins
03-13-2013, 10:03 AM
Wow, Seth. That would be remarkable timing, imo, for any team, let alone the Twins. I can see Sano on that path, IF they move him to 1B, but I can't see it at 3rd. I assume Tonkin is a reliever in that scenario, meaning maybe even sooner, if they just leave him there.

Seth Stohs
03-13-2013, 10:16 AM
Wow, Seth. That would be remarkable timing, imo, for any team, let alone the Twins. I can see Sano on that path, IF they move him to 1B, but I can't see it at 3rd. I assume Tonkin is a reliever in that scenario, meaning maybe even sooner, if they just leave him there.

Like I said, it's probably best/fastest case at this point. Rosario is going to start the season and spend half of it in Ft. Myers, then the second half in New Britain (my guess), so he may get pushed into the Opening Day 2014 to June 2014 range too. Tonkin, at this point, should absolutely stay in the bullpen where he can be dominant with his two plus-pitches. I could see Sano sticking in Ft. Myers all year, and that would not at all be a bad thing. He would then start next season in New Britain where best case would have him up mid-season.

And, as with any and all prospects, not ALL of them will even get to the big leagues. You never know.

Brock Beauchamp
03-13-2013, 10:32 AM
That's a pretty big leap to assume that Rosario will be manning second base for the Twins in 2014.

1. There's a good chance he won't be in Minnesota in 2014.

2. There's an even better chance that if he is, it won't be at second base.

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 11:29 AM
Sano is not going to be a third baseman in the big leagues in 2014 and Rosario is very unlikely to be a second baseman in the big leagues in 2014. There's too much to learn defensively for Rosario, most likely. Now, IF the Twins pull another Span-Revere trade tandem with Morneau and Parmelee before next season (maybe for a third baseman, but certainly for pitching), then maybe we see Sano playing first base at New Britain next year to begin the season and then he gets promoted next year (Colabello, Mauer, Herrmann fill in at first until then).

spycake
03-13-2013, 01:14 PM
I could see these guys (Sano, Rosario, Santana) making their debuts in 2014, but probably late in the season. I don't think delaying free agency or arbitration will be an issue, but the Twins will likely be very conservative in their promotions as usual.

It would be awesome if the Twins had a position player prospect legitimately fast-track it, and make a big jump (from single-A to the majors in a year). It's been awhile since we've seen one of those: Mauer, Knoblauch...

diehardtwinsfan
03-13-2013, 04:20 PM
If being competitive in 2015 is the goal, I could see them pushing some of the guys in low A a bit if their performance merits it. In Sano's case, a lot of that may depend on how well Plouffe performs. In Rosarios case, there really isn't anyone blocking him, so if he's hitting well in FM, I wouldn't be surprised at all for a mid-season promotion.

Thrylos
03-13-2013, 04:53 PM
Now, IF the Twins pull another Span-Revere trade tandem with Morneau and Parmelee before next season (maybe for a third baseman, but certainly for pitching), then maybe we see Sano playing first base at New Britain next year to begin the season and then he gets promoted next year (Colabello, Mauer, Herrmann fill in at first until then).

I can see Parmelee blocking another 1B or OF about the same way I see Kubel doing it. Parmelee is a DH on the field...

Sano's biggest competition for 1B (which might actually push him to 3B same way Cabrera is playing 3B for the Tiggers) is his teammate Vargas (who was the best player at A last season; albeit couple years older.)

Shane Wahl
03-13-2013, 04:55 PM
I can see Parmelee blocking another 1B or OF about the same way I see Kubel doing it. Parmelee is a DH on the field...

Sano's biggest competition for 1B (which might actually push him to 3B same way Cabrera is playing 3B for the Tiggers) is his teammate Vargas (who was the best player at A last season; albeit couple years older.)

I bet Vargas will be a DH. It might come down to Arcia vs. Vargas for that role down the road.

Jim H
03-13-2013, 05:28 PM
I don't really think Vargas is a legitimate prospect at this point. He has a slow bat and will have to prove he can catch up to major league fastballs. Other than power, his other tools are pretty ordinary. He has some chance but I kind of think he will stall out at the AA level. It would be nice if I were wrong, but the Twins have had a lot of prospects like him over the years(Buchanon, Restovich and others). There is a lot of difference between Vargas and Sano beyond the age difference. Sano is a better athlete, and he has a much quicker bat, according to what I have read. It is possible Vargas could develop into a LeCroy or Pedro Munoz. Largely part time guys who do their best work against lefthanders or soft tossing righties.

mnfanforlife
03-13-2013, 06:21 PM
I bet Vargas will be a DH. It might come down to Arcia vs. Vargas for that role down the road.

Really? I always thought Oswaldo would be a lock in RF. Sano and Vargas could battle for DH, but we are all hoping Sano sticks at 3B, otherwise they are both 1B/DH's

kab21
03-13-2013, 11:28 PM
I can see Parmelee blocking another 1B or OF about the same way I see Kubel doing it. Parmelee is a DH on the field...

Sano's biggest competition for 1B (which might actually push him to 3B same way Cabrera is playing 3B for the Tiggers) is his teammate Vargas (who was the best player at A last season; albeit couple years older.)

Parmelee is awful in the OF but my understanding is that he has always been pretty good (at least average) at 1B. Like I said earlier Parmelee is just a place holder like Dougie Glove until a better player comes along. If that better player doesn't show up the Twins won't be hurt by Parmelee if he becomes that .750-.775 hitter I think he will.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 10:16 AM
Parmelee is awful in the OF but my understanding is that he has always been pretty good (at least average) at 1B. Like I said earlier Parmelee is just a place holder like Dougie Glove until a better player comes along. If that better player doesn't show up the Twins won't be hurt by Parmelee if he becomes that .750-.775 hitter I think he will.

I agree if he can play at least average defense and OPS .775 or better at the league minimum then its hardly our biggest concern until we develop something better at the position.

birdwatcher
03-15-2013, 11:14 AM
Reusse gave us his assessment of what he views as very special prospects after his lengthy visit to Ft. Myers. His timetable sure seems aggressive, but I'll accept his assessment of these players over that of the current beat writers and certainly over the assessments of any of us.

What makes anyone think that the Twins will concern themselves with some sort of "arb schedule" when determining when any of these prospects are promoted? The liklihood is they follow the same "conservative" route most Twins prospects have, and are promoted when they're ready, or perhaps a bit too early based on a desperate need. The Twin's 25-man roster contains more players who were promoted BEFORE they were ready than players who were held back by an overly conservative approach.

Badsmerf
03-15-2013, 11:49 AM
#1)I'll accept his assessment of these players over that of the current beat writers and certainly over the assessments of any of us.

What makes anyone think that the Twins will concern themselves with #2) some sort of "arb schedule" when determining when any of these prospects are promoted? The liklihood is they follow the same "conservative" route most Twins prospects have, and are promoted when they're ready, or perhaps a bit too early based on a desperate need. #3) The Twin's 25-man roster contains more players who were promoted BEFORE they were ready than players who were held back by an overly conservative approach.
#1) What about Reusee is so magical to look over 25+ years of past trends of the current regime? Many guesses are based on past history with similar prospects. So I think Reusse is talking out of his ass.... like usual.

#2) Some sort of arb schedule? Like the one that is in place in the MLB? This might or might not enter into the Twins decision process. MLB teams usually try to stagger a little bit for payroll reasons. If you have 3+ prospects that are going to get big pay raises in the same year it could make it difficult to accommodate. By staggering you are allowing for more flexibility.

#3) Do you have anyone in mind? Looking at the roster, the only spot you might be right about is Dozier and whoever will be the CF this year...

ThePuck
03-15-2013, 11:55 AM
#1) What about Reusee is so magical to look over 25+ years of past trends of the current regime? Many guesses are based on past history with similar prospects. So I think Reusse is talking out of his ass.... like usual.

#2) Some sort of arb schedule? Like the one that is in place in the MLB? This might or might not enter into the Twins decision process. MLB teams usually try to stagger a little bit for payroll reasons. If you have 3+ prospects that are going to get big pay raises in the same year it could make it difficult to accommodate. By staggering you are allowing for more flexibility.

#3) Do you have anyone in mind? Looking at the roster, the only spot you might be right about is Dozier and whoever will be the CF this year...

EDIT: I'm not allowed to comment on the validity of birdwatcher's posts anymore...

johnnydakota
03-15-2013, 12:02 PM
That's a pretty big leap to assume that Rosario will be manning second base for the Twins in 2014.

1. There's a good chance he won't be in Minnesota in 2014.

2. There's an even better chance that if he is, it won't be at second base.

Me thinks it depends on how other perform , like Dozier, escobar and florimon...

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 12:27 PM
Me thinks it depends on how other perform , like Dozier, escobar and florimon...

I'd say it probably depends more on how soon he can learn passable defense at 2B. I dont think any of those 3 guys will be blocking him in any way once he's ready.

dakotanative
03-15-2013, 03:27 PM
The Twins have never been an organization that rushes up its prospects. I think 2014 would be alittle too soon for all of them. Sano 2015 at the earliest.

I remember a time when they did run prospects to the big show as quickly as possible. Realizing this predates the current regime, but Calvin Griffith purged his roster in 1981 and 1982 and brought forth the likes of Hrbek, Gaetti, Bush, Ward, Eisenreich, Laudner, Viola and Havens to the show. Puckett came a little later. But he was rushed as well. That 1982 team started off so poorly the Mets 1962 record of 120 losses was in danger of being surpassed. The second half of the season the team was very good and they finished with 102 losses. However, I believe six players made some sports magazine all rookie team and I recall reading where the same magazine predicted that this team would be in the 1987 World Series. Now having said all of this, I am pleased that the current management takes its time with prospects and allows them to grow up as ballplayers.

Shane Wahl
03-15-2013, 04:23 PM
BP may have updated this in the past few years, but I believe it was going into 2011 that there was an article about the amount of time spent in the minors by team. The Twins at that point were 200 plate appearances above the second slowest promoting team. That likely has been altered a bit with Revere (Parmelee still had a LOT of plate appearances in the minors). With pitchers I believe they were third or fourth slowest.

There is no way that Santana-Rosario is the 2014 opening day MI, much less "if not earlier"--that is absurd. Santana still has much work to do and Rosario isn't even an adequate defensively second baseman at the moment. September 2014 is the earliest for both.

birdwatcher
03-15-2013, 05:06 PM
EDIT: I'm not allowed to comment on the validity of birdwatcher's posts anymore...

I appreciate the cordial, friendly response, badsmerf. Very classy. And Puck, I welcome conversations with anyone, but our last one was not healthy.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 05:11 PM
BP may have updated this in the past few years, but I believe it was going into 2011 that there was an article about the amount of time spent in the minors by team. The Twins at that point were 200 plate appearances above the second slowest promoting team. That likely has been altered a bit with Revere (Parmelee still had a LOT of plate appearances in the minors). With pitchers I believe they were third or fourth slowest.

There is no way that Santana-Rosario is the 2014 opening day MI, much less "if not earlier"--that is absurd. Santana still has much work to do and Rosario isn't even an adequate defensively second baseman at the moment. September 2014 is the earliest for both.

Though unlikely, I could see Rosario getting a call up by June or so 2014, if all goes well.
You just never know how quickly he could learn to play the position adequately, and I think his bat is fairly close, and should be ready by then.
One year ago today, none of us would have said that Aaron Hicks would likely be the 2013 opening day center-fielder, yet here we are.

birdwatcher
03-15-2013, 05:22 PM
1. Reusse has been a Twins fan since 1961. He's covered them. He knows a lot about baseball. He respects the opinions of the Twin's field staff. He's talking from a large base of knowledge. He's seen the players in action personally. Anyone who thinks Reusse is clueless, badsmerf, is clearly talking out of his ignorant ass.

2. badsmerf, you claim teams "usually" stagger players' arrival to the big leagues. What's your source? Find me a single piece of support. That will help me determine exactly which orifice you're talking out of on this one.


3. Dozier is the only player you believe arrived in the majors too soon of all the players that have been on the 25 man roster lately? Here are some other players who struggled when they first arrived: Parmelee, Plouffe, Hendriks, Perkins, Burnett. But let's go the other direction. Give me a list of all the players who just killed it when they first arrived, which might indicate they were left wallowing in the minors by the overly conservative Twins. That was the point, and so you pulled Dozier out of one of your orifices apparently to refute it?

I might have to send you off to a corner to sit with Puck.

Mr. Brooks
03-15-2013, 05:25 PM
1. Reusse has been a Twins fan since 1961. He's covered them. He knows a lot about baseball. He respects the opinions of the Twin's field staff. He's talking from a large base of knowledge. He's seen the players in action personally. Anyone who thinks Reusse is clueless, badsmerf, is clearly talking out of his ignorant ass.

2. badsmerf, you claim teams "usually" stagger players' arrival to the big leagues. What's your source? Find me a single piece of support. That will help me determine exactly which orifice you're talking out of on this one.


3. Dozier is the only player you believe arrived in the majors too soon of all the players that have been on the 25 man roster lately? Here are some other players who struggled when they first arrived: Parmelee, Plouffe, Hendriks, Perkins, Burnett. But let's go the other direction. Give me a list of all the players who just killed it when they first arrived, which might indicate they were left wallowing in the minors by the overly conservative Twins. That was the point, and so you pulled Dozier out of one of your orifices apparently to refute it?

I might have to send you off to a corner to sit with Puck.

I'm not making an argument either way on this one, BUT, just because a guy struggles at the ML level, does not necessarily mean that they were "rushed". That would only be true if baseball were a game in which every player was guaranteed eventual success.
Quite often players struggle simply because they are not any good, and no additional amount of time at AAA is going to change that.

kab21
03-16-2013, 05:12 AM
Ruesse is a loyal (to the FO) reporter that will put out an article that makes it sound like a bunch of prospects are near the big leagues to give people some hope.

Badsmerf
03-16-2013, 06:48 AM
1. Reusse has been a Twins fan since 1961. He's covered them. He knows a lot about baseball. He respects the opinions of the Twin's field staff. He's talking from a large base of knowledge. He's seen the players in action personally. Anyone who thinks Reusse is clueless, badsmerf, is clearly talking out of his ignorant ass.

2. badsmerf, you claim teams "usually" stagger players' arrival to the big leagues. What's your source? Find me a single piece of support. That will help me determine exactly which orifice you're talking out of on this one.


3. Dozier is the only player you believe arrived in the majors too soon of all the players that have been on the 25 man roster lately? Here are some other players who struggled when they first arrived: Parmelee, Plouffe, Hendriks, Perkins, Burnett. But let's go the other direction. Give me a list of all the players who just killed it when they first arrived, which might indicate they were left wallowing in the minors by the overly conservative Twins. That was the point, and so you pulled Dozier out of one of your orifices apparently to refute it?

I might have to send you off to a corner to sit with Puck.
Just because you've been around a long time you know what you're talking about as a reporter? Reusse is just trying to put out some new stuff that MN fans haven't seen yet. HE probably doesn't even believe it, instead just writing it to get views.

If you want proof on staggering just watch how the Twins do it. The Rays probably have examples of staggering but I just don't want to look it up to show you. They would be your best bet. The Twins are already starting to stagger if Hicks starts on opening day.

Struggling and time in the minors are different. Hendriks arrived kind of early, but he completely dominated the minors so I wouldn't consider him rushed. Dozier is the only one I listed because he didn't demonstrate he was ready or have a lot of time in the minors. Shoot, even Garza, probably the fastest riser through the system I can remember, deserved his promotions and had Twins fans screaming for him before he actually got the start.

Point is, this team doesn't rush prospects and an article by Reusse saying they will doesn't change that. I'd like to see some of them sooner than later too, but prospect development takes time and the Twins have​ to get this right.

jorgenswest
03-16-2013, 07:31 AM
New Britain is the roster to watch this year. Until players arrive in AA and find success at this level, scheduling arrival in the majors is without foundation.

As for the Twins being slow to promote prospects, that can happen when your system is weak while the major league team is strong. Mauer, Morneau, Span, Hunter... they set their timeline based on the way they performed.

Dozier is not a good case study. He was drafted older. He was never a good prospect. No amount of time in the minors was going to turn him into a good prospect. There have been some similar players who have had good careers in the majors. The typical path is starting with a plus glove and growing the bat over time while in the majors.

worm33
03-16-2013, 07:32 AM
BP may have updated this in the past few years, but I believe it was going into 2011 that there was an article about the amount of time spent in the minors by team. The Twins at that point were 200 plate appearances above the second slowest promoting team. That likely has been altered a bit with Revere (Parmelee still had a LOT of plate appearances in the minors). With pitchers I believe they were third or fourth slowest.



I think this has mostly to do with the Twins selecting mostly High School position players for the last 10 years or so. For recent examples, Revere Span Parmelee Plouffe Cuddyer were all 1st round draft picks from high school who spent a ton of time in the minors. Mauer was really about the only one that was fast-tracked.

jorgenswest
03-16-2013, 07:58 AM
This is the study.
Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Promoting Prospects (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018)

Does additional time in the minors pay off? Look at the Mets. They rush players faster than anyone. Look at their payoff. They basically received nothing in return in the first two seasons from their prospects. The Twins received among the better payoff from their prospects. Read the paragraph below the WARP graph. Only two teams had more prospects surpassing the 3 WARP threshold in their first two seasons than the Twins.

Worm33 is correct about draft age. The study really needs to factor in age or account for college plate appearances and innings.

birdwatcher
03-16-2013, 09:01 AM
This is the study.
Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Promoting Prospects (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018)

Does additional time in the minors pay off? Look at the Mets. They rush players faster than anyone. Look at their payoff. They basically received nothing in return in the first two seasons from their prospects. The Twins received among the better payoff from their prospects. Read the paragraph below the WARP graph. Only two teams had more prospects surpassing the 3 WARP threshold in their first two seasons than the Twins.

Worm33 is correct about draft age. The study really needs to factor in age or account for college plate appearances and innings.

This. Thanks, jorgenswest. Reusse's point, I think, was that this group of prospects is so exceptional that they will deservedly be promoted quickly. While I agree that Reusse may be overly optimistic, I think this notion that he's writing a puff piece for the organization is one of the more preposterous ones I've heard for some time.

The two other common notions I question are that the Twins move players along more slowly than they should, and that there is some premeditated promotion schedule tied to arbtration schedules. Do they factor the arb eligibilty into their decisions? Of course they do, and we want them to. But the opinion expressed, I think, was that there is some sort of plan in place to stagger arrivals, and I don't buy it. I don't see any evidence to suport this opinion.