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View Full Version : Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2.0



Seth Stohs
03-08-2013, 01:41 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1437-Minnesota-Twins-Roster-Projection-2-0

glunn
03-08-2013, 02:03 AM
This is a great post.

I very much agree about Gibson -- better to let him get up to speed in Rochester and not tax his arm and his confidence by starting him in the majors.

I wonder what's up with Deduno -- the natural movement on his pitches is exceptional and it seems to me that he could be amazing if he could just develop more control.

tjsyam921
03-08-2013, 05:15 AM
As good as Hicks is playing i think it works for and against him. Twins need a good lead off hitter and center fielder, but the way he's playing could also show them he could be on his way to living up to his potential and want that extra year of control.

old nurse
03-08-2013, 05:50 AM
This is a great post.


I wonder what's up with Deduno -- the natural movement on his pitches is exceptional and it seems to me that he could be amazing if he could just develop more control.

That has probably been said of Deduno for the last 10 years

Jeremy Nygaard
03-08-2013, 06:26 AM
I'm at the point now where I think Hicks should be an opening day starter. If - at some point this year - he goes into a giant swoon, send him down for three weeks to help him restore confidence and bring him back when he's showing it. Oh, that gives the Twins another year of service too.

orange
03-08-2013, 07:25 AM
Hey Joe Benson, I struggle with getting "consistent content"(ment?) too!

Cap'n Piranha
03-08-2013, 07:52 AM
Given how Pressly has looked this year, along with his rule 5 status, I think he's in good shape to make the team. Escobar is also having a good spring offensively--what does he have to do to pass up Florimon? And finally, any chance that Herrmann can unseat Butera, or is Gardy & Co too high on Butera's defense (I'm assuming Herrmann is not as good defensively).

jimbo92107
03-08-2013, 08:26 AM
As good as Hicks is playing i think it works for and against him. Twins need a good lead off hitter and center fielder, but the way he's playing could also show them he could be on his way to living up to his potential and want that extra year of control.

I'd keep Hicks on the MLB roster for two big reasons.

First, he's clearly ready. Not completely polished, but far ahead of Benson and far more talented than Mastrioanni.

Second, putting Hicks in CF now would be a big boost for the kids coming up through the minor leagues. Guys like Kepler and Arcia want to see that the Twins put performance ahead of team control. Even Joe Benson down in AAA will know that if he starts playing great CF and banging hits, he'll be headed for the show. The Twins have a ton of guys coming up that are watching how management handles Aaron Hicks. Will they respect his accomplishments, or stash him in AAA like a can of soup to be opened at their convenience?

Ballplayers want to be treated like persons, not human resources. Fair play says Aaron Hicks is the best player at CF. If you want your team to be a merit-based system, then Hicks is earning his shot. If Hicks finishes the spring well, then reward him with a roster spot.

cmathewson
03-08-2013, 08:39 AM
This is as good a projection as any right now. I think you can pretty near turn those black names red. The only one I'm not sure about is Burnett. He's had a horrible spring and Gardy might want a situational lefty. Problem is, neither Robertson nor Thielbar has pitched particularly well either. But if Robertson puts together a handful of good outings at the close of spring, I look for him to go north instead of Burnett.

Shane Wahl
03-08-2013, 09:06 AM
Spot on about the proper use of Gibson!!!

Seth Stohs
03-08-2013, 09:34 AM
Given how Pressly has looked this year, along with his rule 5 status, I think he's in good shape to make the team. Escobar is also having a good spring offensively--what does he have to do to pass up Florimon? And finally, any chance that Herrmann can unseat Butera, or is Gardy & Co too high on Butera's defense (I'm assuming Herrmann is not as good defensively).

Herrmann could unseat Butera at some point... He isn't as good as Butera defensively (3 wild pitches by Gibson yesterday and have to wonder if Butera would have been able to do anything with them. I didn't see, but am just guessing). Also, Herrmann is hitting .100 this spring. He'll be fine, but it won't happen on Opening Day.

Seth Stohs
03-08-2013, 09:37 AM
This is as good a projection as any right now. I think you can pretty near turn those black names red. The only one I'm not sure about is Burnett. He's had a horrible spring and Gardy might want a situational lefty. Problem is, neither Robertson nor Thielbar has pitched particularly well either. But if Robertson puts together a handful of good outings at the close of spring, I look for him to go north instead of Burnett.

I just don't think that they'll go with a lefty because 1.) none are making it clear they should, and 2.) so many RHP are out of options and I think they would give them a shot first.

That's also the reason that I can't quite put Burnett and Fein in Red. They do have an option left and others don't.

mike wants wins
03-08-2013, 10:12 AM
I hope that if they do send Hicks down, that they put Benson in there and see what happens. At this point, he's a 4th OFer probably anyway, with Hicks, Arcia, Parmalee, Willingham all her or about to be here. So I'm not worried about his long term development at this point.

Twinsfan46
03-08-2013, 11:05 AM
I hope Burnett doesn't make the team with all of the other options they have. He has been terrible this spring and doesn't strike people out like you'd want a reliever to do. I would rather see Pressly take that spot. Send Burnett to AAA as insurance and roll with some of the other guys.

Rosterman
03-08-2013, 11:15 AM
So the Twins have 15 spots set, which includes a 4th-string outfielder and two pitchers that could be disabled (one of them coming off Tommy John). Doesn't say much for the overall talent. I'm looking at the names thrown out and wonder, actually, how many of the guys will be around come 2015 or even 2016. As for Hicks, if he remains halfway hot, you do start him. If he needs retooling, send him out for a month and again for a month if need be. I see some possible rotation in/out of centerfield. Of course, Morneau is a sticking point. If he goes, we move Parmelee to first and now have need of an additional outfielder. Be interesting to see how the bullpen actually shakes out. Names like Robertson and Burnett are still good to go in the minors and be out future. Fien could also go down and join Guerra and Slama as possible 2014 relievers that the Twins need to keep or finally cut loose. Be interesting to see if any of the non-rosters get promoted. There ain't many names to remove, unless it is Roeincke/Wood and Pressly. That's about it...unless the Twins would have to waiver Butera to send him down.

stringer bell
03-08-2013, 12:09 PM
Fien was the superior pitcher to Burnett last year, he has been the better pitcher in ST, so I think he should be ahead of Burnett. I'd love to see Robertson shine the rest of the spring and win a spot.

Jim Crikket
03-08-2013, 12:40 PM
I disagree on starting Gibson in Rochester, unless Diamond is ready to answer the bell right away or, as could be the case in 3 weeks, Gibson just isn't showing he's ready for the Big Leagues.

But if he's clearly one of the best 5 starting pitchers, I would not waste any of his limited innings this season in Rochester. Make him your 5th starter who's rotation spot gets skipped when things fall that way, but don't waste him in Rochester. Let's be honest, it's highly unlikely he's going to be so good that he lasts 6-7 innings every game anyway. He's going to get knocked around once in a while like every rookie (at least those not named Strasburg) is. He'll have his share of 4 inning starts without artificially limiting his innings in Rochester.

spycake
03-08-2013, 01:12 PM
As good as Hicks is playing i think it works for and against him. Twins need a good lead off hitter and center fielder, but the way he's playing could also show them he could be on his way to living up to his potential and want that extra year of control.
I think the "extra year of control" angle is generally overrated:

- If he's a solid major league player, they will almost certainly sign him to a long-term contract which buys out those seasons anyway.

- And it seems the only way to save money doing this would be to keep him down long enough to delay arbitration, then go year-to-year in his contracts until free agency, but then you'd be taking an even greater "risk" that one of those years he might have a big season and cash in with a huge arbitration award.

I'm guessing service time is very rarely an issue in situations such as these.

Seth Stohs
03-08-2013, 01:21 PM
I disagree on starting Gibson in Rochester, unless Diamond is ready to answer the bell right away or, as could be the case in 3 weeks, Gibson just isn't showing he's ready for the Big Leagues.

But if he's clearly one of the best 5 starting pitchers, I would not waste any of his limited innings this season in Rochester. Make him your 5th starter who's rotation spot gets skipped when things fall that way, but don't waste him in Rochester. Let's be honest, it's highly unlikely he's going to be so good that he lasts 6-7 innings every game anyway. He's going to get knocked around once in a while like every rookie (at least those not named Strasburg) is. He'll have his share of 4 inning starts without artificially limiting his innings in Rochester.

So, if Gibson isn't showing he's one of the top 5 starters, which he isn't right now... where should they have him "waste" those innings? In Extended Spring?

ericchri
03-08-2013, 01:48 PM
If he's not one of the 5 best, his innings wouldn't be wasted in AAA. I think that was the point of saying if he's clearly one of the 5 best.

Echoing JC, I've advocated the notion of treating him as the #5 starter before and skipping him every time it makes sense as opposed to rolling all 5 starters back a day because of an off-day in the schedule. In the grand scheme of things, I'm not sure I really care a whole lot how Gibson gets used this year, though. It only matters if the "Strasburg situation" happens where he would be dominating and has to be shut down before the playoffs. Since I'm not expecting playoffs this year, regardless of how well he pitches, whatever way he gets used, be it AAA or majors, reliever or not, it's all about building him up to be a big factor next year anyway. But my ideal would probably having him pitching well as the #5 and getting skipped from time to time during the season.

mike wants wins
03-08-2013, 01:55 PM
That seems to be the point people are missing, IF he's one of the 5 best starters, it is wasteful to have any innings not in the majors. If he's not, I don't care if it is EST or AAA where he gets up to speed. I just want him fully, 100%, ready for next year to pitch 200 innings give or take.....and I want him up here if he is deemed ready.

Twinsfan46
03-08-2013, 02:48 PM
The Marlins player personnel guy was on TV today saying that they are looking for a right hand hitting catcher. Butera could be a fit if the Twins decide to go with two catchers or keep Herrmann.

SarasotaBill
03-08-2013, 03:49 PM
The club and agent both know the deal. If Super 2 is avoided then the club has more leverage - one more year before arb. or discount in a multi year contract because of the extra year.

Anorthagen
03-08-2013, 05:08 PM
I personally think Gibson has better chance of making the opening day roster then de vries does. Simply because they are most likely going to put Gibson on a innings limit and de vries will be a late season call up.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-08-2013, 06:29 PM
I will take the Twins bullpen seriously as soon as they get rid of Burnett. Blind luck last season.

hakatack
03-08-2013, 10:18 PM
I like the idea of Gibson being a #5 starter and just skipping him in the rotation when possible. As much as I would love to see Hicks on opening day I think the wise move is to get that extra time out of him. While I think the team is going to be more competitive than many think I don't believe the services of Hicks in April and May are going to get them there. Until the pitching situation starts to figure itself out there is really no need to use up the "cheap time" with the good bats.

cmathewson
03-09-2013, 10:30 AM
One thing I noticed about this projected roster. Gardy has repeatedly said that he is going to have one real hitter on his bench, hinting at trying to sign Jim Thome. He's also said he's not wedded to keeping three catchers. So I expect him to go north with two catchers and one hitter not on the 40-man roster. Besides Thome, who remains an outside shot, Boggs, Ramirez, Colabello and Clement are possibilities. Clement has struggled some. The other three are in a virtual dead heat half way through camp. Any one of them could end up with that 25th man designation.

Oldgoat_MN
03-09-2013, 01:21 PM
I understand that we should not put too much stock in ST numbers, but Joe Benson has really struggled and Ramirez has been hitting. On the radio the other day it sounded like he was doing well in the outfield as well.
Would it be out of the realm of possibility to see Ramirez come north?

ND-Fan
03-11-2013, 11:10 AM
I pretty much agree with your assessment but another factor to be thought of coulf the twins pick somebody off wire when all teams are making final cuts before the regular season. I could see them picking up reliever or even middle infielder on the cheap.