PDA

View Full Version : Article: Are Gibson, Hicks Destined For Rochester?



Cody Christie
03-05-2013, 09:26 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1430-Gibson-Hicks-might-be-destined-for-Rochester

fairweather
03-05-2013, 09:38 AM
Terry Ryan has been pretty clear that he wants to follow the blueprint laid out by Atlanta and Kris Medlan. Gibson will start the season in the bullpen. Gardy wants Hicks to be his CF. Hicks will open the season as the lead-off hitter and CF. I don't think either of them have anything to gain by going to Rochester especially because Brunansky and Cuellar are with the big league team now. That is one thing we can all be thankful for.

Forever34
03-05-2013, 09:42 AM
I have no problem waiting a few months to see them in the bigs and not just for the reasons listed above. 2013 is all but designated as a lost cause and we will probably be trading some of our marqee talent in July. No reason to rush any of our top talent. I'd rather have the team 20 games out of first by then and have the kids show up and give us hope for next year than be 10 games out at that point and have to watch them go through growing pains or in Gibson's case risk injury.

SweetOne69
03-05-2013, 10:20 AM
Terry Ryan has been pretty clear that he wants to follow the blueprint laid out by Atlanta and Kris Medlan. Gibson will start the season in the bullpen. Gardy wants Hicks to be his CF. Hicks will open the season as the lead-off hitter and CF. I don't think either of them have anything to gain by going to Rochester especially because Brunansky and Cuellar are with the big league team now. That is one thing we can all be thankful for.

Both Ryan and Gardy have stated that where ever Gibson ends up he will be a starter. He has never pitched out of the bullpen in his career. They want to be able to maintain his routine as a starter and build up arm strength.

nicksaviking
03-05-2013, 10:32 AM
Terry Ryan has been pretty clear that he wants to follow the blueprint laid out by Atlanta and Kris Medlan. Gibson will start the season in the bullpen. Gardy wants Hicks to be his CF. Hicks will open the season as the lead-off hitter and CF. I don't think either of them have anything to gain by going to Rochester especially because Brunansky and Cuellar are with the big league team now. That is one thing we can all be thankful for.

Do you have a link? I've never heard him say that before.

panolo
03-05-2013, 12:09 PM
I am more mixed on Gibson than Hicks. I think if Hicks continues to have a productive spring he needs to be with the big club. What he brings to the table is something we don't have available in any of the other options. He seems like a smart and level headed kid who can handle the ups and downs that will more than likely come this season. You take a look at players like Adam Jones and Austin Jackson from Detroit who went through struggles but their respective teams showed faith and confidence in them. I think Hicks is pretty close in talent to those guys.

If they are going to leave Gibson as a starter and not follow Kris Medlen's approach from last year I would hate to see any innings wasted in AAA rather than Gibson getting adjusted to the ML hitters. But you can't run him out there if he is terrible. I would much rather have him up here with the better coaching and medical staff TBH.

Shane Wahl
03-05-2013, 12:25 PM
I would prefer that they both start at AAA. Most of what I have said about Gibson and AAA to start the year has been disregarded, but it seems to make sense to me. I am not going to repeat it here.

Hicks is definitely a different case. I don't know how the lineup gets constructed without him, I suppose, so he has that going for him.

Badsmerf
03-05-2013, 12:38 PM
Why does this keep coming up? If Hicks starts with the Twins his service clock starts. By waiting 1 month... just 1... the Twins earn an extra year of control. If he starts with the Twins they will be idiots! It doesn't matter if he is the best CF in the league. It is a terrible business decision to bring him north right away and JR has to know it.

fairweather, besides a year of control, the Twins also will get to see if Hicks can handle the next level. Hicks has struggled every level he's moved up, why is this (the absolute biggest jump in his career) going to be different? Why would Gibson start in the pen? What benefit does a guy coming off TJ have going to the pen to start the year after he's already thrown 100 innings? Answer: none. Gibson needs to start and will probably start in AAA to build into the season. Starting him with the Twins based on ST numbers is asinine. The Twins know better than that. Historically the Twins have been conservative with prospects and players and I expect nothing less this season.

sorney
03-05-2013, 12:39 PM
Gibson is 25. If he is close, why waste his arm in the minors? Get him acclimated to MLB hitters asap

Badsmerf
03-05-2013, 01:08 PM
Gibson is 25. If he is close, why waste his arm in the minors? Get him acclimated to MLB hitters asap
Sano is 21 and could probably hit 30 HR's with the Twins. Why not bring him up now instead of wasting 2+ more years in the minors?

Player development is more than age and plug and play. Its fun to think prospects will produce at levels they are expected to, but its just not that simple. A lot goes into these decisions that we can't tell from box scores, scouting write-ups and blogs from beat writers. So if he starts in the minors (I'm guessing he will) his arm wont be going to waste. He still might have 10 years of good ball ahead of him, why compromise his development because he's going to get a late start on him MLB career? Had he not been injured he would have seen the Twins 2 years ago, this is what happens when you have a major surgery. Patience. There is no rush right now.

twinscowboysbulls
03-05-2013, 01:18 PM
I'm torn. I want them in Minneapolis, but as far as we know we won't contend this year. If that's the case, what is the point in starting their clocks early? The later the better. Bring them both up in June unless we truly believe we can contend with this team, which is what I think we all want to believe.

nokomismod
03-05-2013, 01:36 PM
I think you raise some excellent reasons as why these two players should both start the season in Rochester (for their benefit as well as "what's the rush?"). With the current path, I think we are looking at the team being able to contend in 2015 realistically. I think Morneau, Doumit, Carrol, and the Hammer will all be gone by then and their jobs are to just make this team respectable until the young talent is ready.

beckmt
03-05-2013, 01:38 PM
For the same reason, why if the 2013 is being thrown away, why bring Gibson and Hicks up until May 2014. Then you will have all the parts in synch as far as control goes.
My feeling is if Gibson and Hicks belong, please start them up here. It is the only way to not have all the parts and the ups and down at the same time. That is the Royals approach of how they have spent the last 27 years without a playoff appearence. It may be that Hicks is the fourth best outfielder by the time all of the other parts get here(Buxton,Arcia,Kepler,Nate Roberts and others). This is why you do not worry about service time.
The only players I might think about are those with Scott Boras as an agent, as he will almost never sell a very good player to a mid market team unless they tell him to do it.

Steve Lein
03-05-2013, 02:10 PM
I'm torn. I want them in Minneapolis, but as far as we know we won't contend this year. If that's the case, what is the point in starting their clocks early? The later the better. Bring them both up in June unless we truly believe we can contend with this team, which is what I think we all want to believe.

I'm in the camp that no matter how good or bad your team is supposed to be in the upcoming season, you bring the best players north to start the year, no matter if they are a rookie without a single MLB at-bat or a 42-year-old-pure-pinch-hitter/DH. Because while we might say that the outlook is bleak, there are plenty of times where that doesn't end up the case, and if you don't have that "best team" to start the year, you might shortchange yourself.

And as for the quote, I also have a big problem with the "starting their clocks early" thinking. The reason being, if the player is ready and has shown or demonstrated that he is the best option, explain to me exactly how that clock is starting "early"? They are ready, so let them go play.

This is obviously open for interpretation when it comes to Hicks and Gibson, but I think at this point they are showing they can handle it, as evidenced my the MLB team managers comments related to the two.

sorney
03-05-2013, 02:44 PM
Sano is 21 and could probably hit 30 HR's with the Twins. Why not bring him up now instead of wasting 2+ more years in the minors?

Player development is more than age and plug and play. Its fun to think prospects will produce at levels they are expected to, but its just not that simple. A lot goes into these decisions that we can't tell from box scores, scouting write-ups and blogs from beat writers. So if he starts in the minors (I'm guessing he will) his arm wont be going to waste. He still might have 10 years of good ball ahead of him, why compromise his development because he's going to get a late start on him MLB career? Had he not been injured he would have seen the Twins 2 years ago, this is what happens when you have a major surgery. Patience. There is no rush right now.

I understand there's more to player development...a player's prime years are also his age 26-29 seasons. With Sano being 21, you can develop him longer and he still won't be hitting his prime. With Gibson, he is about to enter his prime.

Dave T
03-05-2013, 02:58 PM
From Phil Mackey's on-line chat today:

"Honestly, the service clock thing isn't a huge deal. Teams hold players back to make sure they don't become arbitration-eligible after their second year, which really only saves a couple millions bucks in many cases.

"2013 is about showing improvement. Fans should be excited to watch a lot of these young dudes play."

My opinion: Bring the best team north. Fans have a right to watch the best of these young dudes play.

USAFChief
03-05-2013, 03:04 PM
Why does this keep coming up? If Hicks starts with the Twins his service clock starts. By waiting 1 month... just 1... the Twins earn an extra year of control. If he starts with the Twins they will be idiots! It doesn't matter if he is the best CF in the league. It is a terrible business decision to bring him north right away and JR has to know it.

fairweather, besides a year of control, the Twins also will get to see if Hicks can handle the next level. Hicks has struggled every level he's moved up, why is this (the absolute biggest jump in his career) going to be different? Why would Gibson start in the pen? What benefit does a guy coming off TJ have going to the pen to start the year after he's already thrown 100 innings? Answer: none. Gibson needs to start and will probably start in AAA to build into the season. Starting him with the Twins based on ST numbers is asinine. The Twins know better than that. Historically the Twins have been conservative with prospects and players and I expect nothing less this season.
I think the idiotic thing would be to worry about what might possibly happen 7 years down the road as opposed to worrying about what's the best thing to do today. If Hicks is the Twins best centerfielder, and close to ready for MLB in 2013, he should be where he belongs, with the Twins. I don't know if either of those things are true, but I do know possibly losing a year of team control in 2020 should be far, far down the list of things to consider when making decisions.

Steve Penz
03-05-2013, 03:12 PM
Why does this keep coming up? If Hicks starts with the Twins his service clock starts. By waiting 1 month... just 1... the Twins earn an extra year of control. If he starts with the Twins they will be idiots! It doesn't matter if he is the best CF in the league. It is a terrible business decision to bring him north right away and JR has to know it.

fairweather, besides a year of control, the Twins also will get to see if Hicks can handle the next level. Hicks has struggled every level he's moved up, why is this (the absolute biggest jump in his career) going to be different? Why would Gibson start in the pen? What benefit does a guy coming off TJ have going to the pen to start the year after he's already thrown 100 innings? Answer: none. Gibson needs to start and will probably start in AAA to build into the season. Starting him with the Twins based on ST numbers is asinine. The Twins know better than that. Historically the Twins have been conservative with prospects and players and I expect nothing less this season.

If I am not mistaken the Angels kept Trout back last year for this very reason and he is now the best player in the MLB according to a recent list. Hicks is NOT Trout but I think there it is crazy to not believe that one year in his prime far outweighs one month of this season. There is no question that he should go to Rochester.

ThePuck
03-05-2013, 03:18 PM
If I am not mistaken the Angels kept Trout back last year for this very reason and he is now the best player in the MLB according to a recent list. Hicks is NOT Trout but I think there it is crazy to not believe that one year in his prime far outweighs one month of this season. There is no question that he should go to Rochester.

Trout is eligible to be a free agent in 2018. So 2012 and 5 more seasons...So, six seasons, like normal.

cmathewson
03-05-2013, 03:22 PM
I question the assumption that 2013 is "designated as a lost cause". Terry Ryan does tend to take the long view, but that does not mean he doesn't care about this year. Gardy's job is on the line, and Ryan has put himself in a similar hot seat, by taking responsibility for the teams success in 2013. They don't just want to win, they expect to win. How realistic they are is perhaps another matter.

On that note, I don't share most of the pessimism about this team. Last year, the team got off to a very slow start as all the starters either got hurt or faltered. None of those starters is around, but they've been replaced with better ones. This team was in the top five in the league in scoring runs, and all but one of those bats are back. I'm not saying the team will contend, but they will surprise some people.

If you're paying attention to spring training, Hicks is the frontrunner to go north with the team. And he's expanding his lead, with Mastroiani's hamstring and Benson's rust. At this point, I'd be surprised if he goes to AAA.

Gibson has to earn a spot, but he has been the most impressive among those competing for the fifth spot. And why waste his limited innings in AAA? Also, Ryan has more recently said he does not want Gibson to be a reliever. Medlen had a lot of relief experience prior to last year. Gibson is a starter and only a starter, according to Ryan.

All of this is evident if you read Phil Miller's blog on the Strib site.

Shane Wahl
03-05-2013, 03:32 PM
Look, Gibson isn't going to pitch more than 140-150 innings and that is smart. Would you really rather have him finish the season out by not pitching for all of September?

I am not convinced that the "best 25" argument applies in obvious losing seasons if a few of those players could get better for the future with some time in AAA.

panolo
03-05-2013, 03:44 PM
Look, Gibson isn't going to pitch more than 140-150 innings and that is smart. Would you really rather have him finish the season out by not pitching for all of September?


I'm fine with that. Rest can't hurt unless we are in the pennant race and I don't like the chances this year.

johnnydakota
03-05-2013, 04:15 PM
Why does this keep coming up? If Hicks starts with the Twins his service clock starts. By waiting 1 month... just 1... the Twins earn an extra year of control. If he starts with the Twins they will be idiots! It doesn't matter if he is the best CF in the league. It is a terrible business decision to bring him north right away and JR has to know it.

fairweather, besides a year of control, the Twins also will get to see if Hicks can handle the next level. Hicks has struggled every level he's moved up, why is this (the absolute biggest jump in his career) going to be different? Why would Gibson start in the pen? What benefit does a guy coming off TJ have going to the pen to start the year after he's already thrown 100 innings? Answer: none. Gibson needs to start and will probably start in AAA to build into the season. Starting him with the Twins based on ST numbers is asinine. The Twins know better than that. Historically the Twins have been conservative with prospects and players and I expect nothing less this season.

Just 1 month? is that a hard number or perhaps super 2 status is a percentage? say like 16% of players?

mike wants wins
03-05-2013, 04:50 PM
If Gibson is ready, how does AAA help him?

FrodaddyG
03-05-2013, 04:52 PM
And as for the quote, I also have a big problem with the "starting their clocks early" thinking. The reason being, if the player is ready and has shown or demonstrated that he is the best option, explain to me exactly how that clock is starting "early"?
For the 10,000th time, it has nothing to do with being too "early" for the player or their readiness, and everything to do with their monetary compensation down the road. Good lord.

USAFChief
03-05-2013, 05:10 PM
For the 10,000th time, it has nothing to do with being too "early" for the player or their readiness, and everything to do with their monetary compensation down the road. Good lord.
I thought it was all about the extra year of team control. Neither argument should be among top reasons for or against a player making the big leagues, but at least those promoting them should keep their story straight.

FrodaddyG
03-05-2013, 05:28 PM
I thought it was all about the extra year of team control. Neither argument should be among top reasons for or against a player making the big leagues, but at least those promoting them should keep their story straight.
The amount of team control is what determines the amount of monetary compensation and when they'll be forced to pay it. Hand in hand, same thing.

Shane Wahl
03-05-2013, 05:41 PM
First, I would like to see Gibson pitch a season from April through September for once. There might be some value in that.

Let me approach this from another angle, then. I think it would be good for this team to have the future making up a majority of the roster starting after the trade deadline. Gibson is a part of that future. Imagine what a Benson-Hicks-Arcia OF and a Plouffe-x-Dozier-Parmelee IF (with Mauer, Doumit, and Herrmann) would be like to see with a rotation of Gibson-Diamond-Worley-Hendriks-X (I guess Correia?) and a bullpen with Thielbar, Tonkin, Watts, Pugh, etc.??

Wouldn't it be better to see the makeup of the 2014 roster together in 2013?

Oldgoat_MN
03-05-2013, 05:42 PM
The estimated arrival time for Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Byron Buxton might not be until 2014, 2015 or 2016.
IMHO: No chance to see Sano or Buxton in 2014 unless a rash of injuries forces Sano up. Absolutely no Buxton before September, 2015.

With Gibson & Hicks in AAA the Twins could give Joe Benson, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries, etc., a final chance to show what they have before giving the position to the heir apparent.

I'd start them both in Rochester. I'm guessing Ryan thinks so, too.

Shane Wahl
03-05-2013, 05:46 PM
And, yes, the Twins would have control of Gibson for another year. That doesn't mean much given his age, but I would hope that he is here for the long haul, so there is a slight added benefit from chilling and starting him slowly in Rochester, limiting his innings there.

FrodaddyG
03-05-2013, 05:50 PM
Wouldn't it be better to see the makeup of the 2014 roster together in 2013?
If we're going on the assumption they're all worthwhile pieces, wouldn't it be better to have the bulk of that group together in 2019-2020 for an extra year rather than an extra month of taking lumps this year?

Steve Lein
03-05-2013, 05:55 PM
For the 10,000th time, it has nothing to do with being too "early" for the player or their readiness, and everything to do with their monetary compensation down the road. Good lord.

I know you have a personal hatred of me, but salary in 5 or 6 years just isn't going to matter to the extent the Twins should be worrying about it more than putting their best team out there day 1. Depending on if the player is "good" or "not good," that will get taken care of on the Twins own terms. As in, they'll sign them to an extension they are comfortable with before those final years ever come up (because he's "good"), or they'll just ride it out and cut their losses because they're not spending an inordinate amount of money on the guy anyway (because he's "not good").

Drew Butera is getting more money this year because he's a Super Two, but are we complaining he's overpaid? (no, because he falls into the "not good" player category and we don't really care)

Furthermore, are we complaining we didn't end up keeping Liriano? Casilla? ("not good" players)

Would we have been pissed if they lost Mauer? Morneau? Cuddyer? Baker? or Span because of this?! ("good" players)

Connect the dots. It's not that complicated. Certainly not to the extent you believe when attempting to belittle my opinions on the subject, and is exactly what Phil Mackey is getting at in that chat quoted earlier.

Han Joelo
03-05-2013, 06:01 PM
First off, can a site admin maybe fix this thread--it appears in three different places with three different sets of comments. This one is the least easy to find but has the most comments by far.

Second, I'm firmly in the camp that you bring the best guys north--sends a message to the players in the org. that if you have our back we'll have yours when the time is right. I mean, do you really want to have a bunch of lesser players on "scholarship?"

Third, IMO, the Angels have screwed up royally with Trout so far. They spent enormous amounts of money to contend last year and then repressed their best player to save money? And then the law of unintended consequences took over--in order to make good they traded a bunch of prospects for Greinke and then knee-jerked and signed Hamilton this off-season. Think they would have signed him if they'd had a good or great playoff run? I'm not so sure. And now of course the league minimum re-up. That's probably not as big a deal but bears watching. At any rate, whether it is six years or five years from now, the Angels will be trying to sign Trout for record setting numbers, right as he enters his prime, whilst simultaneously paying gobs of money to Pujols to DH.

Finally, as others have stated, Hicks will have Buxton breathing down his neck soon enough. Get his career started already.

As for Gibson, if he's ready, give him a spot. Skip a start here and there to extend him as far into the season as possible. Better to be around Andy and Cuellar and Mauer than in Rochester as the ace.

Shane Wahl
03-05-2013, 06:03 PM
If we're going on the assumption they're all worthwhile pieces, wouldn't it be better to have the bulk of that group together in 2019-2020 for an extra year rather than an extra month of taking lumps this year?

Yes and hopefully there are two WS championships by then!

I am really not sure why there is *such* dispute about the benefits of not playing top prospects out of the gate this year, instead letting them develop (in Hicks' case--there CERTAINLY are a few things he can work on at the plate in AAA, and in Gibson's case--his innings limit) for a month or so. If the Twins had won 80 games last year like I predicted (!!!!), then I would be singing a different tune, I think (esp. with regard to Hicks).

That said, Cole DeVries and Brandon Boggs/Wilkin Ramirez are decent replacements for a MONTH.

Shane Wahl
03-05-2013, 06:11 PM
And the "start-skipping" crowd . . . this is someone coming off a big injury, so I don't know if messing with routine is such a great idea vs. a 50 total innings limit over several starts in Rochester.

Han Joelo
03-05-2013, 06:16 PM
If we're going on the assumption they're all worthwhile pieces, wouldn't it be better to have the bulk of that group together in 2019-2020 for an extra year rather than an extra month of taking lumps this year?

Since we're talking about 2020, here are my dreams: House paid off. Comfortable salary at a job I love. Two boys half-way to their Mike Trout -like Opening Day debuts at Target Field. Justin Morneau just re-signed to DH for the Twins Thome style. Mauer holding down the fort at second base. Aaron Hicks traded to make room for Buxton, for a bevy a prospects that will form the core of the 2030 team that my boys will both be a part of. Ahh, 2030! Can't wait till two decades from now!

ashburyjohn
03-05-2013, 06:21 PM
I don't like the chances this year.

Have you found someone who does?

cmb0252
03-05-2013, 06:31 PM
I couldn't have said it better Wahl.

When did playing well the first two weeks of spring training mean anything? Heck, when did playing well all of spring training ever mean anything? We are all excited to see our young guys but it's spring training!

Hicks hasn't played higher than AA balls, Gibson is on a pitch count, and the Twins are most likely going to suck. IMO starting them in the minors doesn't only make sense for the future but for the present. It's spring training!

snepp
03-05-2013, 06:32 PM
Have you found someone who does?

Dave St. Peter?

snepp
03-05-2013, 06:37 PM
I know you have a personal hatred of me,

Certainly not to the extent you believe when attempting to belittle my opinions on the subject,


Settle down, you're not being persecuted here.

Han Joelo
03-05-2013, 06:52 PM
The amount of team control is what determines the amount of monetary compensation and when they'll be forced to pay it. Hand in hand, same thing.

So, let's say B.J. Upton has a truly stupendous breakout year. Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many) would have been smarter to stash him in the minor leagues for a couple of more years, so as to have preserved his cost controlled prime? I have a fuzzy memory of him mashing in the playoffs as an unprimed 23 year old...

Please rebut with an argument or examples that go beyond "You are an idiot if you don't see things my way." Here's a couple of lobs which might work out in your favor if you have the time to research. Cano and Ellsbury. Pending free agents. Are the Yanks/Sox better or worse off (or neither) based on how they handled the pre-arb years? I'm truly curious. Could the Yankees put off the looming mega-payday by one more year had they done things differently?

twinsnorth49
03-05-2013, 06:53 PM
I feel like I've been here before....http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSSk5A1Ps5pKgleZwOFIVfQ5AA7sT05H P4Tn62GfmkzDypthGRPvw

Top Gun
03-05-2013, 07:02 PM
You know that Hicks & Gibson could be a reason for more loses than wins in April too.

FrodaddyG
03-05-2013, 07:16 PM
Settle down, you're not being persecuted here.
We're going to have to start piling up the Messiahs here shortly, we're getting so overstocked with them.

Twins Twerp
03-05-2013, 08:41 PM
I have said this on a few different threads but ill say it again...Mike Trout had one of the best seasons in past 30 years [or so my geek friends tell me (WAR)] and did not break camp with the angels because of service time. It is not just a money thing. It is about one month in the minors versuses one less year of service when a guy is 27-28 years old. Wil myers will start in AAA, Bryce Harper started the year in AAA.

The other argument is: are these guys even ready? Hicks has no at bats over AA so sending him to AAA and getting at bats there is what most teams would do.

As far as Gibbie goes, he could get roughly 5 starts before being called up. I dont see any harm in 5 milb starts

Badsmerf
03-05-2013, 09:47 PM
Han Joelo, BJ Upton OPS'd .915 at 19 years old between AA and AAA. Hicks, OPS'd .735 in low A at 19. Different players, different developments. Also, BJ Upton is a great example of a prospect with an extremely high ceiling that has not lived up to it. He is still a pretty good player, but his career OPS in the minors is .844 and majors is .758. Everyone beating down the door for Hicks needs some perspective on this.

He has a chance to be a good player. Everyone that is sold on him and want him in CF for years to come should want another year he doesn't get paid 15 million dollars too then. I don't really expect him to hit very well so my expectations for him are much lower. Still, a good option for CF in the long run since he will play elite defense. These arguments to see him come north are emotional arguments. They make no sense. Baseball is a business, and if I was running the team I'd make sure to be clear to JR that Hicks will not see the MLB until May at the earliest. "Saving a couple million" is a pretty big deal. People with that kind of money make smart decisions with money not emotional ones.

Twins Twerp
03-05-2013, 10:04 PM
So, let's say B.J. Upton has a truly stupendous breakout year. Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many) would have been smarter to stash him in the minor leagues for a couple of more years, so as to have preserved his cost controlled prime? I have a fuzzy memory of him mashing in the playoffs as an unprimed 23 year old...

Please rebut with an argument or examples that go beyond "You are an idiot if you don't see things my way." Here's a couple of lobs which might work out in your favor if you have the time to research. Cano and Ellsbury. Pending free agents. Are the Yanks/Sox better or worse off (or neither) based on how they handled the pre-arb years? I'm truly curious. Could the Yankees put off the looming mega-payday by one more year had they done things differently?

Cano and elsbury were brought up in May and June respectively. Soooo...

shs_59
03-05-2013, 10:05 PM
One thing for sure though, if Gibson is 3/4 Ths as good as Kris Medlen we will make the playoffs in 2014.

Seriously dude is Maddox 2.0. Nearly unhittable.

darin617
03-05-2013, 10:25 PM
You can view the page at Twins Daily - Should Twins Bring Gibson and Hicks North? (http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1430-Gibson-Hicks-might-be-destined-for-Rochester)

They should be headed to Rochester for a while to keep the ARB clock from starting. Why would you waste service time when the Twins made it clear with their off season moves that this year will be another repeat of last year. Let the poor Pohlad boys save some more money...

darin617
03-05-2013, 10:28 PM
I'm torn. I want them in Minneapolis, but as far as we know we won't contend this year. If that's the case, what is the point in starting their clocks early? The later the better. Bring them both up in June unless we truly believe we can contend with this team, which is what I think we all want to believe.

Not to be negative, but if the Twins are contending with this team the end of the world must be near.

darin617
03-05-2013, 10:33 PM
Have you found someone who does?

Gardy & Terry Ryan would be the first that come to mind.

glunn
03-05-2013, 10:35 PM
Not to be negative, but if the Twins are contending with this team the end of the world must be near.

I shudder to think what you would post if you wanted to be negative.

darin617
03-05-2013, 10:38 PM
Cano and elsbury were brought up in May and June respectively. Soooo...

So are you telling me that Boston & NYY know how to use the system but people think the Twins don't need to?

darin617
03-05-2013, 10:40 PM
One thing for sure though, if Gibson is 3/4 Ths as good as Kris Medlen we will make the playoffs in 2014.

Seriously dude is Maddox 2.0. Nearly unhittable.

Maddux 2.0? Really, come on man. totally different pitcher and let him do it for more than one season and the you can still never compare the 2.

Badsmerf
03-05-2013, 10:46 PM
Glunn, you messed up his posts. He would have had 5 in a row. Reminds me of statfreak. Speaking of statfreak.... Brock, have you seen his IP address pop up here yet? I would love to have him back!

jimbo92107
03-05-2013, 10:47 PM
If the Twins send Hicks to AAA, then they should give Joe Benson a real shot at CF, and have Mastrioanni be the fourth outfielder. Only problem then is, who will be the lead-off? Maybe that's why they're trying out Benson in the first slot.

Kwak
03-05-2013, 11:05 PM
"Is he ready [for the majors]"? We won't know for at least a year or two--as a major league player. "Control this guy"! If the Twins are going to continue to think like a small market team--they will be trading these guys off by the end of their 5th year anyway. Ryan's departure had a lot to do with retaining Hunter and Santana for '07, when trading them after the '06 season made far more financial sense--and likely would have fetched better returns. I think he (and the executive committee) learned their lesson. There will only be one "Joe Mauer" on the Twins at a time.

snepp
03-05-2013, 11:24 PM
Glunn, you messed up his posts. He would have had 5 in a row. Reminds me of statfreak. Speaking of statfreak.... Brock, have you seen his IP address pop up here yet? I would love to have him back!

All I want is one good "Season Over!" rant and I'll be happy.

TheLeviathan
03-05-2013, 11:29 PM
All I want is one good "Season Over!" rant and I'll be happy.

He got under the skin of collection of snarky, thick-skinned jerks. I can't even fathom how the lot around here would react to him.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-05-2013, 11:31 PM
He got under the skin of collection of snarky, thick-skinned jerks. I can't even fathom how the lot around here would react to him.

"If the Twins come back from 3 games down with 4 to play I will leave this site forever"

panolo
03-06-2013, 09:04 AM
Have you found someone who does?

Kool aid drinkers everywhere my friend.

diehardtwinsfan
03-06-2013, 10:28 AM
since we are being nostalgic, I'd think a nice Dankind post would be appropriate.

enge0280
03-06-2013, 10:55 AM
I may have missed the reply, but I just wanted to note that Miguel Sano is not 21. All reports show him as being born 5/11/1993, which means he'll turn 20 in about 2 months time. He's still technically 19. He will turn 21 at some point though.

kab21
03-06-2013, 11:52 AM
Personally I think Hicks will struggle this season with the Twins. He has always taken a year to adjust and the MLB is a huge jump. calling him up in May/June is not a huge issue.

I also have no idea how B.J. Upton entered the discussion. He was twice a late season callup for the Rays before he was finally called up full time.

Gibson I'm still more on the fence on. I would prefer that he starts in AAA because an age 31 season could be pretty valuable if he becomes the pitcher that people think he will. The only problem is that the Twins don't have a lot of depth at SP'er. The only pitcher that hasn't earned a spot is Hendriks imo but nearly all of the pitchers could have an injury setback. It might be difficult to go with 1 or 2 of Devries, deduno, random guy when the staff already has Hendriks (struggled so far in the MLB) and Correia (not very good) and there is a more talented guy in the minors. I'm hoping that the Twins have 5 healthy pitchers and gibson is an easy start in the minors.

Dave T
03-06-2013, 12:14 PM
This is one of those chicken-and-egg arguments. Do the Twins have a chance to be a winning ballclub this year? Heck yes, if they improve their starting pitching and find a center fielder. I would be OK sending Gibson and Hicks down if they weren't critical to the team's success THIS year. If 140 innings is all Gibson can give us, I'll take it, starting in April.

ashburyjohn
03-06-2013, 12:58 PM
Gardy & Terry Ryan would be the first that come to mind.

OK, make that "someone who does not have a role in marketing this team".

Riverbrian
03-06-2013, 01:14 PM
Personally... I can't get behind any argument that comes with the implication that 2013 is a lost season before the season has begun.

No matter how realistic that statement may seem to be to some. I hope that decisions are made based upon today and tomorrow.

The question to me is this... Is Hicks much better than Mastro right now? Forget about potential.... We all believe that Hicks is better potentially... What about right now... Is Hicks clearly better right now?

if he is just a little better right now... Wait a little while and let him do some more cooking in Rochester to cement it and preserve the year of team control... If he is a ton better... Let him start opening day in Minnesota.

Hicks had a great year last year but he didn't have the greatest years prior. A little patience won't kill this club to find out what we have before you kill a year for no improvement over Mastro or slight improvement over Mastro.

Brock Beauchamp
03-06-2013, 01:20 PM
Hicks had a great year last year but he didn't have the greatest years prior. A little patience won't kill this club to find out what we have before you kill a year for no improvement over Mastro or slight improvement over Mastro.

I tend to agree with this. Hicks is not Arcia and just prior to last season, we were still questioning whether he should be a switch-hitter. I love Hicks as a player but he hasn't forced himself onto the Major League roster by any means. He had a good 2012 but in 2011, he was rather mediocre. Some time at AAA to prove he's ready for the show isn't necessarily a bad idea. The same goes for Arcia but I have the feeling Oswaldo is going to be banging on the door sooner rather than later. He hasn't had a bad season yet (a couple of mediocre ones for sure, though) and will force the Twins' hand sometime in 2013, I think.

Hopefully they'll both force their way onto the roster sometime mid-season.

Steve Lein
03-06-2013, 02:20 PM
"Saving a couple million" is a pretty big deal. People with that kind of money make smart decisions with money not emotional ones.

From Mackey's chat the other day:

"Comment From Scott

Does Ryan not care about the service time with HIcks by having come north with the team vs. leaving him in Rochester for 6 weeks to push back his clock?



http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/avitars/phpwjkHkuPMac1500armscrossed.jpg
Honestly, the service clock thing isn't a huge deal. Teams hold players back to make sure they don't become arbitration-eligible after their second year, which really only saves a couple millions bucks in many cases. "

Halsey Hall
03-06-2013, 03:49 PM
I've seen quite a few times a late cut heads to AAA that really could have made the team, and the discouragement linger for a month or so. What if Hicks goes down for the month so many want him to,and hits in the .230 range. Kind of hard to bring him up then. If he continues to have a good spring, bring him north. That doesn't take a dime out of my wallet, and perhaps going to a game or two would.

cmathewson
03-06-2013, 03:56 PM
I'm sick of this argument. Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job. They might send Gibson down for a month. They might not. It's entirely dependent on how he pitches in March.

I don't think they really care about service time. They've only been shown to do that once in the last decade. I don't think they're idiots because they a) take the best players north every year and b) sign them to long-term deals before arbitration. The A's and Indians also do this, and nobody calls them idiots.

The way the Twins handle it, they make service time a non-issue, except for fringe players, who don't make a hill of beans in contract negotiations anyway. Hicks and Gibson are not fringe. Like Span and Baker before them, they will get long-term deals after their second season in the majors nullifying arbitration and team control issues.

ashburyjohn
03-06-2013, 04:10 PM
I've seen quite a few times a late cut heads to AAA that really could have made the team, and the discouragement linger for a month or so. What if Hicks goes down for the month so many want him to,and hits in the .230 range.

Then I'll be glad he wasn't up with the Twins and hitting a buck-eighty. If "discouragement" is the issue then it may be best for the team to find it out now rather than wait and find that he pouts for other causes too. I suspect in most cases you've "seen quite a few times", the braintrust has not seen what they wanted, or seen something they didn't like, and sent the player down to improve, and hitting .230 in AAA might even bear out their judgement.

Kwak
03-06-2013, 04:55 PM
Considering Gardenhire is still managing, players will be rotated on a whim and any rookies will feel the lash of his tongue and likely the wheels of the bus. He has his pets, and if you aren't one of them you have trouble. Heaven help the guy who is competing against a "pet" for a starting job.

LaBombo
03-06-2013, 05:48 PM
So, let's say B.J. Upton has a truly stupendous breakout year. Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many) would have been smarter to stash him in the minor leagues for a couple of more years, so as to have preserved his cost controlled prime? I have a fuzzy memory of him mashing in the playoffs as an unprimed 23 year old...


Uh, dude, you know that actually happened, right?

Before we get to that, Hicks/Upton is an apples-to-atom bombs comparison. Upton was an unbelievable phenom who had exactly one season of minor league experience when he mastered AA and then mashed AAA pitching for a half season (.311/.411/.519). At the ripe old age of 19. Playing shortstop.

Until 2012, the perennial debate about Hicks every spring was whether that would be the year the organization would give up on his switch hitting and go righty-only after he struggled constantly from the left. And at age 20, he was repeating Beloit. Bad comp.

Where was Upton in his age 20 season? Despite acquitting himself very nicely for a 19 year old in the majors, posting a .258/.324/.409 line there in 159 AB's, he spent the entire following year in AAA and didn't play the majority of a season in the majors until three years later, when his service time started.

So the "unprimed" Upton who mashed in the playoffs had over 1000 AAA at bats despite being a much more promising prospect than Hicks in the minors, and the Rays delayed his service time clock two years until age 22 despite his having hit AAA well and holding his own in the majors at 19.

LaBombo
03-06-2013, 05:58 PM
Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many)

As for the "paragon" snark about the Rays, well, they certainly are a paragon of both competitiveness and payroll efficiency compared to the Billy Smith-era Twins. In the past 5 seasons the Rays have averaged 91+ wins and made the playoffs three times despite playing in the same division as a team against which the Twins have managed nothing but a decade-long collective pants-wetting.

Riverbrian
03-06-2013, 06:24 PM
Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job.

Maybe... I don't know... But maybe... Potentially... There seems to be no doubt... but right now at this moment... I don't know... But maybe.

Badsmerf
03-06-2013, 07:02 PM
Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job.

Reading box scores from 20 Spring Training AB's tells you he is the best player out of the 3? Have you even seen Hicks play? If you actually think this, then why start his clock before it needs to be? This is insane. Its like you and others think this is a playoff team and the slight upgrade that Hicks would provide for 6 weeks outweighs the future payroll. Again, only an idiot would say saving a few million doesn't matter. It does, and if Hicks does turn out to be pretty good it will be more than a few million. I'm getting sick of this discussion. Hicks hasn't seen an MLB AB and people are already voting him into the All-Star game.

snepp
03-06-2013, 07:06 PM
Maybe... I don't know... But maybe... Potentially... There seems to be no doubt... but right now at this moment... I don't know... But maybe.

So you're saying......there's a chance.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-06-2013, 07:09 PM
My opinion is to keep Hicks in AAA until he proves he's ready to start. There is nothing that screams he's major league ready right now and I think he'll be a strikeout machine if he starts from the season opener on. He had a good, not great year in AA, but it definitely wasn't something to have a guy skip AAA. Plus, it's not like he's strung multiple good years together. The speed and fielding is all probably good enough, but it's the batting I'm worried about. I will be shocked if he does he hits above .235 with a reasonable amount of XBH. The extra year of team control isn't the main reason, but I also think it's another small incentive. Give the job to Benson and see how he can do. He's 25 and it's now or never with him, so we may as well see. I think that's the right move for the future. Mastroianni should still get a lot of time subbing for Joe and Parmelee (when he's at first and Morneau DHs).

Gibson, on the other hand, I think will be fine in the MLB. He needs the experience now just like Benson does. The minor leagues aren't going to season them much more. No reason to waste his inning limit in AAA. I think they should limit him at the beginning of the schedule instead of the end. Perhaps, let him start still, but only for the first 3 innings. We would need a 6th starter (Devries makes sense) to use from the pen to pair with him of course. From then on, Gibson can gradually increase his innings per start and stay under the whatever mark the Twins want to use that way.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
03-06-2013, 07:17 PM
Have you even seen Hicks play?

The most commonly used phrase against someone you disagree with in sports. I tire of unoriginality and this question in particular is so annoying. Doesn't make the huge difference people make it out to be. You watch him play one game and apparently you become an expert on the player. Just because you claim to have watched him doesn't make any difference. If that was the case, you could never question Gardy's or TR's decisions because I guarantee they have seen Hicks more than any of us. There's a reason we use stats.

Halsey Hall
03-06-2013, 08:44 PM
Then I'll be glad he wasn't up with the Twins and hitting a buck-eighty. If "discouragement" is the issue then it may be best for the team to find it out now rather than wait and find that he pouts for other causes too. I suspect in most cases you've "seen quite a few times", the braintrust has not seen what they wanted, or seen something they didn't like, and sent the player down to improve, and hitting .230 in AAA might even bear out their judgement.

You can't be serious about the buck eighty.

The "discouragement" or "disappointment" or whatever you care to call it is well known by the team. There's no one that makes that long walk to the minor league camp that's excited about it. Having been here in spring training since the Twins started here, yes, "I've seen it quite a few times". I've even made part of the walk with a couple players. I just tell them to hang in there, I've seen it before, and I'll see them in Minnesota in a month or two. The last two were Span, and then Plouffe. Sometimes the reasons have been what you've stated. Sometimes other reasons. At times the FO has backed themselves into a corner to play a player, ie Nishioka. TK really liked to bring guys like Reboulet up. Gardy does the same. Once in awhile I think it's just a test, lol. TK did admit he brought up Torri Hunter way to soon, and it took awhile but Torri caught up.

I guess we'll know here in a few weeks what's shakin'.

LaBombo
03-06-2013, 09:06 PM
You can't be serious about the buck eighty.

It's not a precise science, but yeah, hitters can easily lose 30 or 40 points of average in transition from AAA to the majors. 50 might be a little bit over the average non-PCL drop. But then you throw in the intangible of a guy with one season above A ball struggling to adjust to his first two-league jump and pressing when he scuffles, and yeah, an MLB equivalency average 50 points below your hypothetical AAA .230 average seems very plausible.

Liked your take on spring training, though. There's definitely a psychological element to the sorting process of spring training, especially when a non-contender has multiple unknown quantities battling for roster spots.

Halsey Hall
03-06-2013, 09:14 PM
Oh I agree. It was just a hypothetical .230. The buck eighty would never come about, since he can't be in two places at once, is all I meant.

Badsmerf
03-06-2013, 09:49 PM
The most commonly used phrase against someone you disagree with in sports. I tire of unoriginality and this question in particular is so annoying. Doesn't make the huge difference people make it out to be. You watch him play one game and apparently you become an expert on the player. Just because you claim to have watched him doesn't make any difference. If that was the case, you could never question Gardy's or TR's decisions because I guarantee they have seen Hicks more than any of us. There's a reason we use stats.

LOL ok buddy. That's why baseball scouts are far more important to teams than saber guys... and I'd consider myself a pretty stat heavy guy. I'm done with this thread.

USAFChief
03-06-2013, 10:34 PM
Reading box scores from 20 Spring Training AB's tells you he is the best player out of the 3? Have you even seen Hicks play? If you actually think this, then why start his clock before it needs to be? This is insane. Its like you and others think this is a playoff team and the slight upgrade that Hicks would provide for 6 weeks outweighs the future payroll. Again, only an idiot would say saving a few million doesn't matter. It does, and if Hicks does turn out to be pretty good it will be more than a few million. I'm getting sick of this discussion. Hicks hasn't seen an MLB AB and people are already voting him into the All-Star game. Again, while there are legitimate concerns over whether Hicks is ready for MLB, only an idiot keeps bringing up non-factors like future payroll. People keep saying "a few million doesn't matter" because it doesn't. If you're sick of this discussion, perhaps you should consider not participating in the discussion.

jokin
03-06-2013, 11:24 PM
As for the "paragon" snark about the Rays, well, they certainly are a paragon of both competitiveness and payroll efficiency compared to the Billy Smith-era Twins. In the past 5 seasons the Rays have averaged 91+ wins and made the playoffs three times despite playing in the same division as a team against which the Twins have managed nothing but a decade-long collective pants-wetting.

As a long-time Ray-o-phile, and frustrated with the 21st Century-long Twins futility with the AL East, your words are aptly put. And it isn't really the Twin's futility on the field, it's the inability of the club to take Rays-like organizational steps to become more consistently competitive with the East, especially considering that during most of this era, the Twins have been positioned to carry a larger payroll and had superior competitive advantages to the Rays- in positional talent- and up to more recently, superior pitching talent, as well.

jokin
03-06-2013, 11:30 PM
My opinion is to keep Hicks in AAA until he proves he's ready to start. There is nothing that screams he's major league ready right now and I think he'll be a strikeout machine if he starts from the season opener on. He had a good, not great year in AA, but it definitely wasn't something to have a guy skip AAA. Plus, it's not like he's strung multiple good years together. The speed and fielding is all probably good enough, but it's the batting I'm worried about. I will be shocked if he does he hits above .235 with a reasonable amount of XBH. The extra year of team control isn't the main reason, but I also think it's another small incentive. Give the job to Benson and see how he can do. He's 25 and it's now or never with him, so we may as well see. I think that's the right move for the future. .

Uhh, if you think Hicks will be a strikeout machine, you'll love the Air Conditioning that Benson would provide to Target Field this spring.

glunn
03-06-2013, 11:31 PM
Please consider this a caution to all posters that the word "idiot" is highly charged, and personal attacks violate the TD policy.

This thread has had some great debate between people who totally and passionately disagree. Such debate is an important part of TD. HOWEVER, please keep the debate respectful.

The Wise One
03-06-2013, 11:40 PM
As a long-time Ray-o-phile, and frustrated with the 21st Century-long Twins futility with the AL East, your words are aptly put. And it isn't really the Twin's futility on the field, it's the inability of the club to take Rays-like organizational steps to become more consistently competitive with the East, especially considering that during most of this era, the Twins have been positioned to carry a larger payroll and had superior competitive advantages to the Rays- in positional talent- and up to more recently, superior pitching talent, as well.

By your reverence for how the Tampa Rays do business then you ought to love Ryan. The team hea crafted from 2001-2006 averaged only one less win per year than the Tampa team has over the last 5.

jokin
03-06-2013, 11:43 PM
Personally... I can't get behind any argument that comes with the implication that 2013 is a lost season before the season has begun.

No matter how realistic that statement may seem to be to some. I hope that decisions are made based upon today and tomorrow.

The question to me is this... Is Hicks much better than Mastro right now? Forget about potential.... We all believe that Hicks is better potentially... What about right now... Is Hicks clearly better right now?

if he is just a little better right now... Wait a little while and let him do some more cooking in Rochester to cement it and preserve the year of team control... If he is a ton better... Let him start opening day in Minnesota.

Hicks had a great year last year but he didn't have the greatest years prior. A little patience won't kill this club to find out what we have before you kill a year for no improvement over Mastro or slight improvement over Mastro.

RB, I'm with you on everthing in your post, sans your opening statements. The club's offseason actions strongly tipped their hand that the bulk of their decision-making is based upon "tomorrow", not "today". Thus, the selling to the public that cutting the payroll another 25% and then celebrating the Correia signing as your headline FA acquisition and stripping the top of your order and your keystone defensive players (with no obvious heir-apparents) for 2 minor league pitchers and a question mark SP, and no effort to bolster other obvious holes as much of your AL Central competition is doing precisely the opposite- is the Twins silent scream: "2013 is a lost season". How else should a loyal fan interpret the current situation?

jokin
03-06-2013, 11:46 PM
By your reverence for how the Tampa Rays do business then you ought to love Ryan. The team hea crafted from 2001-2006 averaged only one less win per year than the Tampa team has over the last 5.

Pick cherries much, TWO?

John Bonnes
03-07-2013, 07:47 AM
The team he crafted from 2001-2006 averaged only one less win per year than the Tampa team has over the last 5


Pick cherries much, TWO?

If one is going to compare the Rays and the Twins (which would, frankly, make a great separate thread if anyone wants to start it) it seems like those are the years to compare. Both organizations were coming off years of losing, starting with low payroll, struggling to maintain revenues in crummy domed stadiums. It certainly seems like a better comp than comparing the Rays recent success to the Twins last five years, when they were fighting years of success and a farm system that they had about used up.

This could make a great other thread.

Brock Beauchamp
03-07-2013, 08:17 AM
If one is going to compare the Rays and the Twins (which would, frankly, make a great separate thread if anyone wants to start it) it seems like those are the years to compare. Both organizations were coming off years of losing, starting with low payroll, struggling to maintain revenues in crummy domed stadiums. It certainly seems like a better comp than comparing the Rays recent success to the Twins last five years, when they were fighting years of success and a farm system that they had about used up.

This could make a great other thread.

I've said this for quite some time. I love the Rays and how they operate but let's face it, they've had a good run that is little better than the Twins from 2001-2006 (and the Twins continued to be good off and on after that point). The Rays had years and years and years of #1, 2, and 3 draft picks to assemble their winning team. That helps any forward-thinking team get back into the playoffs.

But now comes the real test. Can they continue to win after picking in the bottom half of the draft, as the Twins did for most of the 2000s?

ThePuck
03-07-2013, 08:51 AM
I've said this for quite some time. I love the Rays and how they operate but let's face it, they've had a good run that is little better than the Twins from 2001-2006 (and the Twins continued to be good off and on after that point). The Rays had years and years and years of #1, 2, and 3 draft picks to assemble their winning team. That helps any forward-thinking team get back into the playoffs.

But now comes the real test. Can they continue to win after picking in the bottom half of the draft, as the Twins did for most of the 2000s?

KC and Pitt have had the same advantage the Rays had...

twinsnorth49
03-07-2013, 09:06 AM
This all seems so familiar.....................http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSSk5A1Ps5pKgleZwOFIVfQ5AA7sT05H P4Tn62GfmkzDypthGRPvw

Brock Beauchamp
03-07-2013, 09:11 AM
KC and Pitt have had the same advantage the Rays had...

Irrelevant. The Royals and Pirates are poorly managed franchises. Getting high draft picks does not guarantee success. On the other hand, success with high picks does not guarantee continued success as you transition to lower picks, either.

Han Joelo
03-07-2013, 09:26 AM
I agree with Brock--things go in cycles. Picking in the top 5 for a few years in a row certainly should help an organization look good.

To the Rays lovers--I understand geographical loyalty. I'm lucky--the nearest Major League team to me is 600 miles away, so I can just pick a team I admire, which happens to be the Twins. I get it--you love your logo but wish it stood for something else. Hang in there--recent history (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, et. al.) seem to suggest the Twins are adopting a more Rays like approach.


This thread has gone pretty well despite the idiot comments. I've honestly been backed off my position that the extra year of cost-control doesn't matter. I still think that if Hicks earns the job he should come north. I don't care what job you have, if you're the best guy for the job, you should be rewarded. It sends a positive message throughout the org that if you work hard you will be rewarded. I'm sorry that hard work can't be quantified easily in some statistic.

And I stand by my premise that the Angels bungled it with Trout. He's the kind of guy that should get a Longoria type contract, maybe even this year, rendering his "cost-control" years moot. The Angels spent a lot of money last year going all in, and perhaps if they hadn't of chiseled Trout out of a few weeks in the majors, they might have made the playoffs.

ThePuck
03-07-2013, 09:30 AM
I agree with Brock--things go in cycles. Picking in the top 5 for a few years in a row certainly should help an organization look good.

To the Rays lovers--I understand geographical loyalty. I'm lucky--the nearest Major League team to me is 600 miles away, so I can just pick a team I admire, which happens to be the Twins. I get it--you love your logo but wish it stood for something else. Hang in there--recent history (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, et. al.) seem to suggest the Twins are adopting a more Rays like approach.


This thread has gone pretty well despite the idiot comments. I've honestly been backed off my position that the extra year of cost-control doesn't matter. I still think that if Hicks earns the job he should come north. I don't care what job you have, if you're the best guy for the job, you should be rewarded. It sends a positive message throughout the org that if you work hard you will be rewarded. I'm sorry that hard work can't be quantified easily in some statistic.

And I stand by my premise that the Angels bungled it with Trout. He's the kind of guy that should get a Longoria type contract, maybe even this year, rendering his "cost-control" years moot. The Angels spent a lot of money last year going all in, and perhaps if they hadn't of chiseled Trout out of a few weeks in the majors, they might have made the playoffs.

Trout's rookie year was last year. He's free agent eligible in 2018. So last year and the upcoming 5. 6 years of control, just like most players.

Han Joelo
03-07-2013, 10:04 AM
Trout's rookie year was last year. He's free agent eligible in 2018. So last year and the upcoming 5. 6 years of control, just like most players.
But didn't they gain a "super two" year? You know, I really don't think I know what I'm talking about, so maybe I should quit this thread.

ThePuck
03-07-2013, 10:19 AM
But didn't they gain a "super two" year? You know, I really don't think I know what I'm talking about, so maybe I should quit this thread.

Super Two are for players who are arbitration eligible before three years of service. It doesn't affetc years of control but rather years of arbitration. Certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria:

● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.


So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team wants to keep a player in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/business/super-two/

Kwak
03-07-2013, 11:52 AM
Irrelevant. The Royals and Pirates are poorly managed franchises. Getting high draft picks does not guarantee success. On the other hand, success with high picks does not guarantee continued success as you transition to lower picks, either.

Perhaps comparing the Twins to the Cardinals would make for a better comparison?

ashburyjohn
03-07-2013, 12:24 PM
Perhaps comparing the Twins to the Cardinals would make for a better comparison?

Only for the purpose of embarrassing the Twins.

Brock Beauchamp
03-07-2013, 01:33 PM
Perhaps comparing the Twins to the Cardinals would make for a better comparison?

A much better comparison. The Cards are an obvious example of a mid-market team that thrives, despite having less than stellar pick position many years.

PopRiveter
03-07-2013, 01:43 PM
I know it's just spring numbers, but Hicks has 4 home runs (and counting) in his past 3 games. His 8 RBI are tied for the team lead. If he has any chance of playing his way onto the team, he's doing it so far.

mcrow
03-07-2013, 01:50 PM
I know it's just spring numbers, but Hicks has 4 home runs (and counting) in his past 3 games. His 8 RBI are tied for the team lead. If he has any chance of playing his way onto the team, he's doing it so far.

Yeah, I'd have to say if he really had any chance of playing his way onto the team he's on it right now. A lot of spring training left though.

PopRiveter
03-07-2013, 02:19 PM
Just got his third of the day. If a starting job could be won today, it would be.

James
03-07-2013, 02:19 PM
I know it's just spring numbers, but Hicks has 4 home runs (and counting) in his past 3 games. His 8 RBI are tied for the team lead. If he has any chance of playing his way onto the team, he's doing it so far.
Make that 5 HR's in 3 Games... Apparently, he's got the right-handed batting down today (3HR game).

Highabove
03-07-2013, 02:41 PM
I've said this for quite some time. I love the Rays and how they operate but let's face it, they've had a good run that is little better than the Twins from 2001-2006 (and the Twins continued to be good off and on after that point). The Rays had years and years and years of #1, 2, and 3 draft picks to assemble their winning team. That helps any forward-thinking team get back into the playoffs.

But now comes the real test. Can they continue to win after picking in the bottom half of the draft, as the Twins did for most of the 2000s?

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st

Tampa has mostly built their success on superior scouting and player development.

John Bonnes
03-07-2013, 02:48 PM
The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st

So the Rays have done a poor job with their high draft picks? Is that the point?

I'm kidding, of course. But look at the Twins lineup from 2002 and the draft pick that was spent on them. If I remember right, it's comparable.

Brock Beauchamp
03-07-2013, 02:48 PM
The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st

The Twins had plenty of guys who succeeded after being picked in later rounds as well... But is that a skill that can be maintained over time? That's far from a given and Tampa certainly hasn't proved that they can do it.

Brock Beauchamp
03-07-2013, 02:48 PM
So the Rays have done a poor job with their high draft picks? Is that the point?

I'm kidding, of course. But look at the Twins lineup from 2002 and the draft pick that was spent on them. If I remember right, it's comparable.

Yep and yep.

Highabove
03-07-2013, 03:12 PM
So the Rays have done a poor job with their high draft picks? Is that the point?

I'm kidding, of course. But look at the Twins lineup from 2002 and the draft pick that was spent on them. If I remember right, it's comparable.


I do not agree that Tampa,s success is built mostly on high round draft picks.
Many folks believe that Tampa's success is attributed to their years of picking high in the draft.
My point is, this is not necessarily so. Their starting staff highlights my opinion.
Its obvious that they have developed a number of high round picks.

Riverbrian
03-07-2013, 03:19 PM
RB, I'm with you on everthing in your post, sans your opening statements. The club's offseason actions strongly tipped their hand that the bulk of their decision-making is based upon "tomorrow", not "today". Thus, the selling to the public that cutting the payroll another 25% and then celebrating the Correia signing as your headline FA acquisition and stripping the top of your order and your keystone defensive players (with no obvious heir-apparents) for 2 minor league pitchers and a question mark SP, and no effort to bolster other obvious holes as much of your AL Central competition is doing precisely the opposite- is the Twins silent scream: "2013 is a lost season". How else should a loyal fan interpret the current situation?

Because... No matter what the oddsmakers say... You and I both know that "Mine that Bird" did indeed win the Kentucky Derby in 2009 and the Balitmore Orioles won at Pimlico last year I believe.

I'm simply not inclined to look at the Tigers Roster and place it next to the Twins Roster and cancelling my season tickets(I don't own season tickets). The Tigers can fall and the Twins can rise... I won't bet anything important on it but it's possible and it happens every year.

Before the season starts you have to put your best foot forward. If Herb Brooks and squad took the what's the point attitude in 1980... Team USA would never have beaten Romania 7 to 2.

Kwak
03-07-2013, 04:41 PM
Only for the purpose of embarrassing the Twins.
Exactly! The Twins are wont to blame disappointment on factors beyond their control--Yankee money, unfavorable draft position for the Twins but favorable for someone else, "injuries", "home field advantage", etc. But, it is rare that they ever admit to their own mistakes. For nearly ten years they trumpeted their success on the SF Giants trade and also the acquistion of Johan Santana, but "other trades or acquisitions"--silence. The long term lack of draft success is more likely systemic than "bad luck".

cmathewson
03-07-2013, 04:41 PM
Hicks today: 4-5, 4 runs, 6 RBI, 3 HRs, SB. He now has five homers in his last nine at bats.

glunn
03-08-2013, 12:46 AM
I do not agree that Tampa,s success is built mostly on high round draft picks.
Many folks believe that Tampa's success is attributed to their years of picking high in the draft.
My point is, this is not necessarily so. Their starting staff highlights my opinion.
Its obvious that they have developed a number of high round picks.

As fans, it's easy for us to perceive defects in drafting. If a team's top picks don't pan out, then it's easy to criticize the people handling the drafting.

What seems far more opaque is a team's ability to develop that players who the team drafts. I don't know how to measure this, and I could be 100% wrong, but it seems to me that the Rays probably do a great job at developing pitchers.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-08-2013, 10:57 AM
since we are being nostalgic, I'd think a nice Dankind post would be appropriate.

Oh man, I really miss that guy. He was such a goober but his mullet and hate for Mauer made him actually pretty funny.

kab21
03-08-2013, 11:11 AM
Trout's rookie year was last year. He's free agent eligible in 2018. So last year and the upcoming 5. 6 years of control, just like most players.

Everyone is forgetting that Trout was called up in 2011 and was awful. The fact that he was awful doesn't matter but that PT in 2011 gave him enough service time that keeping him in AAA didn't matter.

Hicks is a different case. He wasn't called up in 2012 so waiting a month does actually delay FA a year.

ThePuck
03-08-2013, 11:16 AM
Everyone is forgetting that Trout was called up in 2011 and was awful. The fact that he was awful doesn't matter but that PT in 2011 gave him enough service time that keeping him in AAA didn't matter.

Hicks is a different case. He wasn't called up in 2012 so waiting a month does actually delay FA a year.

yeah, I was just pointing out what he was saying about Trout wasn't true...that's not why he didn't make the team out the gate in 2012.

I think it's longer than a month they need to wait as well, but maybe you're right

snepp
03-08-2013, 11:22 AM
Oh man, I really miss that guy. He was such a goober but his mullet and hate for Mauer made him actually pretty funny.

How about getting a 'Slap Single' word filter for a day?

jokin
03-08-2013, 11:17 PM
Because... No matter what the oddsmakers say... You and I both know that "Mine that Bird" did indeed win the Kentucky Derby in 2009 and the Balitmore Orioles won at Pimlico last year I believe.

I'm simply not inclined to look at the Tigers Roster and place it next to the Twins Roster and cancelling my season tickets(I don't own season tickets). The Tigers can fall and the Twins can rise... I won't bet anything important on it but it's possible and it happens every year.

Before the season starts you have to put your best foot forward. If Herb Brooks and squad took the what's the point attitude in 1980... Team USA would never have beaten Romania 7 to 2.

I fear what the Twins are about to step in, even with their best foot forward. Particularly when they needlessly tied one hand behind their back!

jokin
03-08-2013, 11:38 PM
The Twins had plenty of guys who succeeded after being picked in later rounds as well... But is that a skill that can be maintained over time? That's far from a given and Tampa certainly hasn't proved that they can do it.

I think it's evidently apparent that the Rays identify draftable talent and minor league talent very well. Furthermore, their cash flow position has forced them to become very shrewd evaluators (talent and cost) of major league talent.

IE:

1)Young for Garza and Bartlett/
2)Garza for Archer (BA #36 Prospect) & Fuld("best #4 OF in BB")/
3) Shields for Myers (BA #4 Prospect), Montgomery(BA #23 Prospect), Odorizzi(BA# 92 Prospect).

The Rays have their act together in evaluating and developing talent in all departments, and never make an excuse about playing in the toughest Division in baseball- or playing in the worst park, in the worst market in baseball. (Hire Matt Arnold).

Riverbrian
03-08-2013, 11:56 PM
I fear what the Twins are about to step in, even with their best foot forward. Particularly when they needlessly tied one hand behind their back!

Perhaps... Or perhaps not... But the worm must turn regardless.

If the front office has indeed needlessly bound one hand.

You can't ask the team... The coaches... The anyone... to just simply die and not fight with the free hand before the struggle even begins.

Personally... I don't have a problem with the Twins delaying the Arb clock in Hicks case and I don't have a problem with Hicks starting opening day.

If Hicks is clearly ready and clearly the best option... Suit him up... If he's not clearly better right now. Give him some AAA time to finish cooking a little and save the year of team control.

I will only be concerned if the Twins kept Hicks down because the front office said... cuz we are gonna suck anyway. That would be impossible for me to support.

jokin
03-09-2013, 01:10 AM
Perhaps... Or perhaps not... But the worm must turn regardless.

1)If the front office has indeed needlessly bound one hand.

You can't ask the team... The coaches... The anyone... to just simply die and not fight with the free hand before the struggle even begins.

2)Personally... I don't have a problem with the Twins delaying the Arb clock in Hicks case and I don't have a problem with Hicks starting opening day.

If Hicks is clearly ready and clearly the best option... Suit him up... If he's not clearly better right now. Give him some AAA time to finish cooking a little and save the year of team control.

3)I will only be concerned if the Twins kept Hicks down because the front office said... cuz we are gonna suck anyway. That would be impossible for me to support.

1) I think the evidence suggests they have tied the knot. (ie, AA OF expected to make the double jump promotion, cover his own defensive area, plus nearly half of the inadaequately manned LF and RF zones, as well...and, oh, bat leadoff besides). Can we agree that for the Twins to be contending season-long, although hope indeed springs eternal, is as likely as rolling two consecutive 7s and the FO knows this to be the case?
And let's say both Hicks and Gibson hit as 7s, there are still way too many more guys that are almost certain to roll snake-eyes. [(1/6)^2, or 2.8%- it could happen, but they have instead chosen to get leaner and meaner for the interim, take their lumps the next 2 years and look 3 years out to 2015.]

2) On Hicks immediate future, I am in firm agreement and I like his chances a lot better than Dozier's of making it, but man, that's a lot of pressure on a first-year kid, especially if the intention is "winning". The fact that Podsednik was floated by the Twins as a possible CF alternative tipped their hand pretty much that they will go with any run-of-the-mill placeholder at the first sign of Hicks faltering, the Podfather isn't exactly a candidate for Shannon Stewart-status as The Difference Maker.

3) The Twins, of course, will never say this, but their offseason inactions (and aforementioned actions) spoke volumes. I got in trouble with some in the dog days of last season for predicting that the Twins were going to follow through with their whisper campaign of taking a meat cleaver to the payroll. Now that they actually exceeded my worst fears, looking at the potential draft class in 2014 (looks pretty promising), are the Twins no lo contendre-ing on purpose to get another top 1-3 pick?, And, therefore, planning on further gutting the lineup midseason (wholesale trade of the usual suspects) and/or receiving a supplemental pick for Morneau on a QO?

Conclusion: The Twins are likely going to give H & G a good chunk of the year at the MLB level in '13 to get their feet under them with the Twins (possibly along with Arcia when a spot open up at the trade deadline), and begin the staggered 3-year process across the bridge of MLB promotions. "Winning" sure seems like a secondary priority with all these impending machinations, particularly for an organization unwilling or unable to multitask in the FA and Trade Markets for needed positional players and affordable quality SPs this offseason.

Shane Wahl
03-09-2013, 01:22 AM
I think it is now a given that Hicks will be a Twin out of the gate and that Gibson will be in Rochester. We'll see if I am wrong.

Riverbrian
03-09-2013, 07:52 AM
1) I think the evidence suggests they have tied the knot. (ie, AA OF expected to make the double jump promotion, cover his own defensive area, plus nearly half of the inadaequately manned LF and RF zones, as well...and, oh, bat leadoff besides). Can we agree that for the Twins to be contending season-long, although hope indeed springs eternal, is as likely as rolling two consecutive 7s and the FO knows this to be the case?
And let's say both Hicks and Gibson hit as 7s, there are still way too many more guys that are almost certain to roll snake-eyes. [(1/6)^2, or 2.8%- it could happen, but they have instead chosen to get leaner and meaner for the interim, take their lumps the next 2 years and look 3 years out to 2015.]

2) On Hicks immediate future, I am in firm agreement and I like his chances a lot better than Dozier's of making it, but man, that's a lot of pressure on a first-year kid, especially if the intention is "winning". The fact that Podsednik was floated by the Twins as a possible CF alternative tipped their hand pretty much that they will go with any run-of-the-mill placeholder at the first sign of Hicks faltering, the Podfather isn't exactly a candidate for Shannon Stewart-status as The Difference Maker.

3) The Twins, of course, will never say this, but their offseason inactions (and aforementioned actions) spoke volumes. I got in trouble with some in the dog days of last season for predicting that the Twins were going to follow through with their whisper campaign of taking a meat cleaver to the payroll. Now that they actually exceeded my worst fears, looking at the potential draft class in 2014 (looks pretty promising), are the Twins no lo contendre-ing on purpose to get another top 1-3 pick?, And, therefore, planning on further gutting the lineup midseason (wholesale trade of the usual suspects) and/or receiving a supplemental pick for Morneau on a QO?

Conclusion: The Twins are likely going to give H & G a good chunk of the year at the MLB level in '13 to get their feet under them with the Twins (possibly along with Arcia when a spot open up at the trade deadline), and begin the staggered 3-year process across the bridge of MLB promotions. "Winning" sure seems like a secondary priority with all these impending machinations, particularly for an organization unwilling or unable to multitask in the FA and Trade Markets for needed positional players and affordable quality SPs this offseason.

On point #1... You and I are in agreement... I also do not expect season long contention. I do have some realism in my bones... I just know that the realism bone isn't real and means nothing. I predict in 2013 that some good teams are gonna suck and some bad teams are gonna be great... It happens every year.

But I can't go along with the suggestion that hands were purposely bound and knotted.

On point #2... I believe we do agree on Hicks but I don't understand the Scotty Pods bit. Rumors are Rumors... A rumor about Scotty Pods could have been made up by anyone playing the home game and speculating... I'm sure it's quite possible that Pods was brought up in discussion amongst Twins staff but... If the Twins were serious about Scotty Pods... He'd be here. Mastro and Boggs appear to be the run of the mill placeholders and I don't like calling them that.

#3... I don't know. I'm just not worried about payroll.

I think we will see a bunch of Gibson and Hicks and Arcia this year and I'm pumped.

"Affordable Quality" both of those words are very hard to define in the context of baseball players. Was Edwin Jackson affordable? Was he Quality? Both are very debatable and its an eye of the beholder discussion.

Riverbrian
03-09-2013, 08:03 AM
I think it is now a given that Hicks will be a Twin out of the gate and that Gibson will be in Rochester. We'll see if I am wrong.

I agree and I think the key to you being right is:

If Spring Training is actually going to determine the outcome. If it is... Benson and Mastro have some serious catching up to do. Hicks is trying to grab the job with both hands right now and it's fun to watch.

Another clue for me is this... When Hicks and Benson are in the lineup together... Who plays CF? It's been Hicks so far.

Linus
03-09-2013, 08:51 AM
Gibson is in the process of making this decision very easy with his recent spring performances. Of course it is certainly possible for him to sharpen up before camp breaks but if this is what its going to look like, he's in AAA for sure. Hicks on the otherhand, is really going to force the issue with his excellent play. I suppose Mastro could do very well and give the Twins a chance to send him to AAA for service time reasons but he's gonna be up soon if not right out of the gate. I think Gibson still has a lot to prove before you start penciling him into the Twins rotation.

kab21
03-09-2013, 11:35 AM
If you base it on spring training then that's true but I actually think the opposite is true. I wouldn't be surprised if Mastro outperforms Hicks this year.