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Twins Twerp
03-04-2013, 09:36 AM
Link: Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects (2012-13) | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/minnesota-twins-top-15-prospects-2012-13/)

Another and I would say the last of the noteworthy top Twins prospect lists has been posted. This one you can look at without a stupid subscription (I'm talking to you ESPN, BaseballAmerica, and BaseballProspectus).

Buxton gets the nod over Sano as does Hicks over Arcia. One thing I found a little off was how low he has May (12) behind Polanco, Kepler, and Harrison. Thought??s

gunnarthor
03-04-2013, 10:11 AM
I liked this list, thanks for linking it. Another surprise was Gibson one spot above Meyer. I think the author did a good job pointing out the upside as well as the dangers in all of the prospects. Polanco at # 9 was new but I'm pretty high on him. I think he'll end up being what a lot of us are expecting Eddie Rosario to be. I'm pretty excited about this upcoming MiLB season. Probably will be a lot more fun that the ML season.

nicksaviking
03-04-2013, 10:18 AM
This one took awhile. Fangraphs periodicly released the various teams top 15 this offseason, the Twins were last. May was surprising, some of the write ups didn't quite seem right though. They say Hicks will start the season in AAA and have a chance for a late season call up one sentance, then mention the Span and Revere trades and say the door is open for him the following line. I have a feeling they wrote the Hicks article quite some time ago and amended the last sentence to reflect the current situation. I think it likely that many of these were done that way.

May being that low was surprising. They reference his high strikeouts and high walk rate, then in the next sentance say his ceiling is a "No. 3, innings eating starter." How many high strikeout/high walk rate pitchers are inning eating #3 pitchers? The high walks usually limits innings and the high strikeouts generally make you a 1-2 or the walks cause you to bust out into the bullpen.

Interesting that Polanco got the #9 spot. He passed over some of the bigger names but with a solid season, he'll likely be ranked in the top 10 on everyones list next year.

mike wants wins
03-04-2013, 10:27 AM
I thought the hicks write up made sense, if you assume they will hold him back for control reasons. I also do not understand why people think it is wrong people charge for their work, just because it is online. That said, nice wrote up. I find it interesting how much live people have for Buxton, relative to guys that have full season success.

kab21
03-04-2013, 10:50 AM
I'm as high on Polanco as almost anyone and fairly down on May but not even I would rank Polanco above May.

One thing about Polanco is that Mike Newman (from fangraphs) actually saw him in person. Some have made comments about Polanco not hitting much as he moves up but I've wondered how many of those people have actually seen him hit.

SurroundedByTigers
03-04-2013, 11:55 AM
Really an impressive list, and a whole bunch of guys left out. My personal favorite not-on-the-list player is Kennys Vargas. I think Vargas has a ton of upside.

Nick Nelson
03-04-2013, 11:59 AM
This one you can look at without a stupid subscription (I'm talking to you ESPN, BaseballAmerica, and BaseballProspectus).

Yes. How dare they try to make money and pay their writers? Jerks!

birdwatcher
03-04-2013, 12:40 PM
Another nice list, especially when you consider the names excluded from a top 15, some that would have (or did) make our top 10 list two springs earlier: Benson,Goodrum, Boyd, Chargois, Vargas, Melotakis, Michael, Tonkin, Wimmers. My gut tells me our top 25 list would stack up as maybe the best in baseball.

nicksaviking
03-04-2013, 12:55 PM
Yes. How dare they try to make money and pay their writers? Jerks!

Because the advertising on an ESPN site is rediculously low?

I don't really care if ESPN charges, there are plenty of other sources for good baseball discussion but I seriously doubt ESPN would need to rely on insider subscriptions to pay their writers.

Brock Beauchamp
03-04-2013, 01:30 PM
Because the advertising on an ESPN site is rediculously low?

I don't really care if ESPN charges, there are plenty of other sources for good baseball discussion but I seriously doubt ESPN would need to rely on insider subscriptions to pay their writers.

Website advertising costs a fraction of its television and radio counterparts.

Which has always struck me as incredibly odd, as its efficacy has to be as high (or higher), given its focused nature.

Twins Twerp
03-04-2013, 01:40 PM
Speaking of website advertising, my web-browswer on my android has pop-up adds when I go to Twinsdaily. Anyone else had that problem? My fingers are far to large so instead of hitting the X button I usually open up the add. Frustrating.

cmb0252
03-04-2013, 09:45 PM
This is definitely the best overall group of Twins specs I have seen since following their minors. Not only great depth but two elite studs in Sano and Buxton at the top. Law of probability tells not all of these guys will reach their ceilings and/or make it to the pro. On the same note law of probability also tells us some of them will! Hopefully Hicks/Arcia /Gibson will get things started this year.

jokin
03-05-2013, 01:13 AM
This one took awhile. Fangraphs periodicly released the various teams top 15 this offseason, the Twins were last. May was surprising, some of the write ups didn't quite seem right though. They say Hicks will start the season in AAA and have a chance for a late season call up one sentance, then mention the Span and Revere trades and say the door is open for him the following line. I have a feeling they wrote the Hicks article quite some time ago and amended the last sentence to reflect the current situation. I think it likely that many of these were done that way.

Methinks this might have been hastily written, or sloppily edited, or both:



"Hicks is a gifted defensive center-fielder with above-average range and a strong arm. The Florida native has a chance to develop into a plus-fielding outfielder capable of hitting .270-.280 with 15 home runs and more than 30 steals at the big league level."

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-05-2013, 10:54 PM
Website advertising costs a fraction of its television and radio counterparts.

Which has always struck me as incredibly odd, as its efficacy has to be as high (or higher), given its focused nature.

ESPN makes a **** ton in online advertising, trust me, and their average CPM's run over $10, $25+ for anything worthwhil.

The insider thing is more or less a reason to pawn off the print magazine subscriptions to keep that dying "business" afloat, also they have a bunch of people who more or less have been on "auto renew" for the past 5+ years who prob don't even realize they are still getting charged every year/month. That is the big benefit of the "subscription business" people are to lazy to cancel a monthly $5 charge.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-05-2013, 10:59 PM
I think its a little silly for anyone to put Buxton over Sano at this point, Sano has his warts no doubt but the kid probably has the most raw power in all or prospect(dom)

I almost get picking Buxton due to some thought of upside, but he then takes high upside guys like Arcia and Meyer and puts them under Hicks and Gibson.

FWIW: I personally have Hicks as my #3 but its just a personal thing.

cmb0252
03-05-2013, 11:30 PM
Silly? I completely understand putting Sano over Buxton, or liking other Twins specs over him, or preferring specs who have proven themselves at higher levels, but this under valuing of Buxton has to stop. This dudes tools aren't comparable to Meyers or Arcia.

Most of the top spec analysts love Buxton so why don't Twins fans? People still upset they didn't take a college pitcher last year?

Shane Wahl
03-06-2013, 01:07 AM
I like the list but of course disagree about placing Buxton there yet. I also am amused by the Luke Bard love. I don't see that at all.

Shane Wahl
03-06-2013, 01:08 AM
This one took awhile. Fangraphs periodicly released the various teams top 15 this offseason, the Twins were last. May was surprising, some of the write ups didn't quite seem right though. They say Hicks will start the season in AAA and have a chance for a late season call up one sentance, then mention the Span and Revere trades and say the door is open for him the following line. I have a feeling they wrote the Hicks article quite some time ago and amended the last sentence to reflect the current situation. I think it likely that many of these were done that way.

May being that low was surprising. They reference his high strikeouts and high walk rate, then in the next sentance say his ceiling is a "No. 3, innings eating starter." How many high strikeout/high walk rate pitchers are inning eating #3 pitchers? The high walks usually limits innings and the high strikeouts generally make you a 1-2 or the walks cause you to bust out into the bullpen.

Interesting that Polanco got the #9 spot. He passed over some of the bigger names but with a solid season, he'll likely be ranked in the top 10 on everyones list next year.

Yes, national writers are not going to be as good as Seth.

Shane Wahl
03-06-2013, 01:12 AM
Another nice list, especially when you consider the names excluded from a top 15, some that would have (or did) make our top 10 list two springs earlier: Benson,Goodrum, Boyd, Chargois, Vargas, Melotakis, Michael, Tonkin, Wimmers. My gut tells me our top 25 list would stack up as maybe the best in baseball.

I like the question you raise. We always see top 10 or maybe top 20 lists for each team, but only done on a national level (and they suck--look at the Twins prospects list on MLB). I would really like to see how the top 30 lists around the league by local bloggers compare to Seth and company. There is something to be said for depth in the system as clearly those lower on lists can suddenly break through in a big way (Polanco, Vargas, Pinto, Herrmann, etc.).

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-06-2013, 05:32 AM
Silly? I completely understand putting Sano over Buxton, or liking other Twins specs over him, or preferring specs who have proven themselves at higher levels, but this under valuing of Buxton has to stop. This dudes tools aren't comparable to Meyers or Arcia.

Most of the top spec analysts love Buxton so why don't Twins fans? People still upset they didn't take a college pitcher last year?

Nobody is undervaluing Buxton and nobody is saying he isn't the Twins #2 prospect...

whosafraidofluigirussolo
03-06-2013, 07:19 AM
http://twinsdaily.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by cmb0252 http://twinsdaily.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://twinsdaily.com/farm/5440-fangraphs-top-15-prospects.html#post88576)
Silly? I completely understand putting Sano over Buxton, or liking other Twins specs over him, or preferring specs who have proven themselves at higher levels, but this under valuing of Buxton has to stop. This dudes tools aren't comparable to Meyers or Arcia.

Most of the top spec analysts love Buxton so why don't Twins fans? People still upset they didn't take a college pitcher last year?
---

Nobody is undervaluing Buxton and nobody is saying he isn't the Twins #2 prospect...

Maybe it's simply that most of the professional or semi-professional outlets have writers with scouting experience who will incorporate the tools they can ostensibly see into player rankings, while most fans have to form their opinions based on what information is available to them, so they focus more on track record.

kab21
03-06-2013, 10:40 AM
Maybe it's simply that most of the professional or semi-professional outlets have writers with scouting experience who will incorporate the tools they can ostensibly see into player rankings, while most fans have to form their opinions based on what information is available to them, so they focus more on track record.

One thing that you will consistently find is that the fresh batch of draftees are usually overranked in their first prospect list. I think the entire board (with a few exceptions) consider Buxton to be a top 25 MLB prospect. That is really high imo for someone with very limited pro experience.

Oldgoat_MN
03-06-2013, 12:26 PM
Buxton hit an unimpressive .248 in Rookie League. They are looking at things we don't see.
Sano hit .258 last year, also underwhelming. Again, they are seeing things we aren't.

I'm not saying they are right about everything. Just that they are seeing a lot more than we are.
Even when we watch the same game.

Seth Stohs
03-06-2013, 01:05 PM
I like the question you raise. We always see top 10 or maybe top 20 lists for each team, but only done on a national level (and they suck--look at the Twins prospects list on MLB). I would really like to see how the top 30 lists around the league by local bloggers compare to Seth and company. There is something to be said for depth in the system as clearly those lower on lists can suddenly break through in a big way (Polanco, Vargas, Pinto, Herrmann, etc.).

All lists will be different. I take pride in my Twins minor league and prospect knowledge and I am comfortable with my prospect rankings, but for whatever reasons, I will rank people different than others. If you talk to different people, you hear different things. If you look at different stats, you may value them differently. IF you look at the same stats, you may value them differently. I am higher on guys like Danny Santana, Kenny Vargas and some other guys than other people. On some, I may be proven right. On others, I may be proven wrong. The lists are fun.

SpiritofVodkaDave
03-06-2013, 01:08 PM
I'm not to worried about Sanos batting average, he had one of the top OPS seasons in recent history for a teen at that level.

Seth Stohs
03-06-2013, 01:10 PM
One thing that you will consistently find is that the fresh batch of draftees are usually overranked in their first prospect list. I think the entire board (with a few exceptions) consider Buxton to be a top 25 MLB prospect. That is really high imo for someone with very limited pro experience.

When you're the #2 overall pick in the draft, you better be a very, very highly ranked prospect!! Buxton absolutely should be in the Top 25, and I have no problem with Baseball America having him in their Top 10.

Jim H
03-10-2013, 07:10 PM
One thing to keep in mind about prospects, no matter their "ceiling" or their tools, is that it will take some time to see exactly how good they will turn out to be. Cuddyer took about 3 years into his major league career to finally "break out". Parmelee and Plouffe will get an opportunity to be regulars this year, but we really don't know how that will turn out. They may turn into big league backups, solid regulars, stars or they could even go down the Valencia path. I am pretty excited about the Twins minor league prospects, but a lot of that, for me, is that I think there is a lot of depth. Buxton and Sano could be stars, but even if they aren't, there a lot of good prospects in the system right now who could become good major leaguers.

josecordoba
03-10-2013, 08:29 PM
Prospect Rankings should consider two things.

1. A player's upside- Here is where I would argue Buxton over Sano. Buxton has the potential to make an impact in way more areas of the game (Base-Running, Defense, Hitting) where as Sano's Tools are extreme power plus a very good arm. If one questions-Sano's ability to stay at 3rd where as expecting Buxton to remain in CF then the issue gets more complicated. I look at Sano as a Miggy/Stanton type potential hitter (Rare 80 Power). He's an awesome asset for the System. I look at Buxton's upside as higher (Andrew McCutchen/Matt Kemp). This seems to be the Baseball Prospectus/Fangraphs View.

2. The prospects ability to reach one's ceiling. I realize Sano is a safer bet here. This is why he's probably higher on most prospect boards. I remember being surprised when Keith Law said he would be hard pressed to see a case made for a prospect other then Sano. Buxton has a much greater risk of flaming out.

I would rank Buxton higher. I realize that one would need Brass Balls to do a trade of Sano's Probability for Buxton's potential. One could make a valid case either way. This seems to be a choice of scouting preference.