PDA

View Full Version : Article: Joe Mauer Hates Pop-Ups



Brad Swanson
02-26-2013, 09:39 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1409-Joe-Mauer-Hates-Pop-Ups

h2oface
02-26-2013, 10:01 PM
I gotta say....... sometimes I would rather see an infield fly ball than a double play grounder.

Brad Swanson
02-26-2013, 10:06 PM
I gotta say....... sometimes I would rather see an infield fly ball than a double play grounder.

I will now open my sealed envelope to prove that I totally called this as the first comment.

3355

That being said (drawn?), I guess a pop-up is better than a double play. I did not consider this.

mnfanforlife
02-26-2013, 10:23 PM
I gotta say....... sometimes I would rather see an infield fly ball than a double play grounder.

I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

Twins Twerp
02-27-2013, 08:33 AM
I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

My brother, my brother, my brother, people that hate on Mauer are...idiots. He has one of the smoothest swings you'll ever see and is a first ballot hall of famer, and you wish he would pop out more...dumb.

Brad Swanson
02-27-2013, 10:42 AM
I used different samples for a few of the charts. The rate charts (IFFB/PA) used 2002-2012 data, which is all that FanGraphs has available. The volume chart used 2004-2012 data to mirror Mauer's career. Sorry for the terrible and embarrassing oversight.

h2oface
02-27-2013, 10:43 AM
I don't see anyone "hating" on Mauer here, just observing that one out made in an AB is better than two. The only one making it personal and calling someone an "idiot" is a self professed "twerp"........... or......... can only twerps call another twerp a twerp, even though he calls himself a twerp?

ThePuck
02-27-2013, 11:15 AM
I will now open my sealed envelope to prove that I totally called this as the first comment.

3355

That being said (drawn?), I guess a pop-up is better than a double play. I did not consider this.

Nice article...good research...and it shows how great of a hitter he is..but, you're right of course, you had to know that the whole DP comment was coming right away...gotta pull the negative out first...those 4%-5% of PAs he hits into DPs is a really killer :-)

None of the great hitters today hit into DPs...especially those that make a lot of contact :-)

twinsnorth49
02-27-2013, 11:21 AM
Nice article...good research...and it shows how great of a hitter he is..but, you're right of course, you had to know that the whole DP comment was coming right away...gotta pull the negative out first...those 4%-5% of PAs he hits into DPs is a really killer :-)

None of the great hitters today hit into DPs...especially those that make a lot of contact :-)

Exactly, I'm sure the Tigers are encouraging Miggy to change his approach, to mitigate all those DP's and hopefully pop out more often.

nicksaviking
02-27-2013, 11:43 AM
I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

How about in a tie game with no outs, bases loaded and the double play still gets the go-ahead run across. An infield pop-up scores nothing and the inning-ending double play is still intact for the next hitter.

I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

ThePuck
02-27-2013, 11:48 AM
How about in a tie game with no outs, bases loaded and the double play still gets the go-ahead run across. An infield pop-up scores nothing and the inning-ending double play is still intact for the next hitter.

I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

yeah, he finally had more than 65Ks in a season. This one season is definitely showing a trend :-)

nicksaviking
02-27-2013, 11:56 AM
yeah, he finally had more than 65Ks in a season. This one season is definitely showing a trend :-)

I didn't say anything about a trend, I simply wanted to know what changed last year.

Nick Nelson
02-27-2013, 12:11 PM
Nice article...good research...and it shows how great of a hitter he is..but, you're right of course, you had to know that the whole DP comment was coming right away...gotta pull the negative out first...those 4%-5% of PAs he hits into DPs is a really killer :-)

None of the great hitters today hit into DPs...especially those that make a lot of contact :-)

Right. The flip side is that the hard grounders which sometimes turn into DPs also sometimes turn into singles through the hole and doubles down the line. Pop-ups rarely turn into anything but outs. No question you prefer a guy with this hitting profile.

ThePuck
02-27-2013, 12:12 PM
I didn't say anything about a trend, I simply wanted to know what changed last year.

If I had to guess, and that's all it'd be, is he was probably feeling the pressure of constantly being told he needed to hit HRs and be the kind of hitter he really isn't and this was causing him to push. Or it could just be one of those things....you know...just turned out that way.

AM.
02-27-2013, 12:34 PM
It appears to me that Mauer does a better job than most at making square contact (thus the high LD% and high BA, and when he does miss, he misses high on the ball at a much higher rate than the rest of the league.

While he is clearly a superstar and under appreciated, and ridiculous to even consider making suggestions to someone vastly better at hitting major league pitching than almost everone on the planet, I think that this article does demonstrate that it may be true that if he could move his contact point/target zone a bit lower on the ball, without sacrificing his LD%, he could swap out some ground balls for fly balls and therefore home runs, and be an even better hitter than he already is.

ashburyjohn
02-27-2013, 01:16 PM
> Mauer was the best in the AL last year at not making outs.

Among players with enough appearances, no one in the NL topped him either. No reason to include the qualifier; Mauer was the best last year at not making outs.

Brad Swanson
02-27-2013, 01:32 PM
Quick, since Mauer entered the league in 2004, who has the most GIDPs? A billion points if you know. 2 billion if you look it up. I reward research.

ThePuck
02-27-2013, 01:49 PM
Quick, since Mauer entered the league in 2004, who has the most GIDPs? A billion points if you know. 2 billion if you look it up. I reward research.

I'd guess Pujols

Brad Swanson
02-27-2013, 02:12 PM
I'd guess Pujols

You'd be right, one billion points!

He is also first in WAR over that span. Mauer is 11th.

Brad Swanson
02-27-2013, 02:12 PM
> Mauer was the best in the AL last year at not making outs.

Among players with enough appearances, no one in the NL topped him either. No reason to include the qualifier; Mauer was the best last year at not making outs.

Exactly, and that is what makes him such a great player.

CDog
02-27-2013, 02:13 PM
I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

It may not explain it entirely, but the whole league is striking out more. It may be (at least partly) due to pitchers being better at striking people out.

EDIT: I was surprised after actually looking, that Mauer's K-rate has actually increased over his career more slowly than the league K-rate. It certainly doesn't appear that way to the eye because he actually decreased it over the first several years and jumped each of the last two (as opposed to the league that has been on a steadier, smoother climb, obviously).

Willihammer
02-27-2013, 02:37 PM
A similar thing. Joey Votto has only pulled one foul ball into the stands for his career.

nicksaviking
02-27-2013, 02:40 PM
I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.

NotJoeBuck
02-27-2013, 04:41 PM
Whoa Whoa Whoa - in the "Batted Ball Rates" the league average adds up to 110%. Not to useful to compare against Mauer's breakdown which also oddly totals 102%.

What am I missing here?

Brad Swanson
02-27-2013, 04:51 PM
Whoa Whoa Whoa - in the "Batted Ball Rates" the league average adds up to 110%. Not to useful to compare against Mauer's breakdown which also oddly totals 102%.

What am I missing here?

Sorry, IFFB% is actually a percentage of a percentage. So Mauer's 2% is 2% of his fly ball rate, not 2% of his batted balls.

So, if he had 100 batted balls and 25 were fly balls, and 1 of those was an infield fly, his FB% would be 25% and his IFFB% would be 4%.

snepp
02-27-2013, 04:54 PM
What am I missing here?

Pop-ups are considered flyballs.

Pius Jefferson
02-27-2013, 11:02 PM
I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

A run scoring double play is better than a pop up.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
02-28-2013, 08:52 AM
Nice article. This is why I love to read Twins Daily. Well-written, well-researched, and a little wit. Fun.

Oldgoat_MN
02-28-2013, 09:39 AM
I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.
Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I did not see that segment.
I also believe you're correct to map that onto the Twins pitching staff. Makes me think (ouch).

Brad Swanson
02-28-2013, 11:17 AM
Nice article. This is why I love to read Twins Daily. Well-written, well-researched, and a little wit. Fun.

This is very kind. Thank you for the feedback!

ThejacKmp
02-28-2013, 02:44 PM
I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.


There's a clear logical fallacy to your point here. Having fewer strikeouts and walks does not mean that the Twins will have more home runs or even are any more likely to give up home runs. Those are separate variables. The only way your logic would make sense is if baseball involved no other outcomes - only a HR, a K or a BB was possibly in each at bat. Luckily for baseball fans, this is not true.

Twins pitchers may replace those K's and BB's with more ground balls or pop ups or doubles or line drives or hit batsman. The three outcomes are all separate variables which do not directly effect one another.

Twins Twerp
02-28-2013, 03:15 PM
Does the league going away from steroids have anything to do with rising strikeout rates?

Twins Twerp
02-28-2013, 03:18 PM
There's a clear logical fallacy to your point here. Having fewer strikeouts and walks does not mean that the Twins will have more home runs or even are any more likely to give up home runs. Those are separate variables. The only way your logic would make sense is if baseball involved no other outcomes - only a HR, a K or a BB was possibly in each at bat. Luckily for baseball fans, this is not true.

Twins pitchers may replace those K's and BB's with more ground balls or pop ups or doubles or line drives or hit batsman. The three outcomes are all separate variables which do not directly effect one another.

Ya, its science guys. The property of non-effect. A and B have nothing to do with C. Sciene=Fact. Like how ketchup and mustard go together, peanut butter and jelly go together, but ketchup and peanut butter don't go together. Simple science.

Willihammer
02-28-2013, 10:01 PM
The Twins did give up the most homers of any team in the league though, behind only Toronto.

There are inverse correlations between K% & BABIP, k% & HR/FB, and K% & LD%

If you miss fewer bats then other teams, then you will also miss fewer sweet spots of bats. More balls will be put in play, more balls will be hit hard. Hitting a ball with a bat isn't a totally random event.