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Jeremy Nygaard
02-22-2013, 07:06 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1400-I-ll-Say-It

Chance
02-22-2013, 07:38 PM
Loved it.

glunn
02-22-2013, 08:14 PM
This is an immensely entertaining post. If half of it comes true, then you are prescient. I just hope that it's the good half that comes true. In particular, I am praying for good performances from Plouffe, Deduno, Parmelee and Dozier.

beckmt
02-22-2013, 08:34 PM
Entertaining article. Parmelee is presented just as I expected. Rest is about what I believe. Morneau's future here is tied to how Parmelee produces. Have many reservations on that front. Hope our starting pitching will be resolved by next year, but I have predicted that the Twins will win 72, but if midseason firesale it could be less.

Thrylos
02-22-2013, 08:57 PM
Fun. But hold it for one thing:
If Arcia will have more of an impact than Hicks and Thomas will make the team, does this mean that Thomas ( who almost killed Meyer btw) will be the Twins starting CF?
An OF of Willingham-Thomas-Parmelee would be very very interesting :)

Jeremy Nygaard
02-22-2013, 09:05 PM
Thomas will be up for a month, then Hicks comes up and struggles. Mastro will still be up. Thomas goes down. Arcia may be up if Hammer gets hurt or Parmelee struggles, but comes up for good when Morneau or Hammer gets traded. Hicks will still get a lot of at-bats, but will struggle offensively. I don't think Arcia will, whether that's at RF, LF or DH.

An OF of Willingham-Thomas-Parmeless isn't interesting. It's both bad and sad.

Thrylos
02-22-2013, 09:21 PM
An OF of Willingham-Thomas-Parmeless isn't interesting. It's both bad and sad.

well.. do you remember the OF of Delmon-Cuddyer(CF)-Kubel?

:)

That would be a fun comparison

Thrylos
02-22-2013, 09:29 PM
Totally unrelated with the topic, because I just saw the pic posted with this...

Do you all realize that only Mauer and Morneau are left from the players in that game? (Perk was in AAA - begrudgingly- and Duensing did not make the team until the season after)

nicksaviking
02-22-2013, 10:25 PM
Totally unrelated with the topic, because I just saw the pic posted with this...

Do you all realize that only Mauer and Morneau are left from the players in that game? (Perk was in AAA - begrudgingly- and Duensing did not make the team until the season after)

Duensing actually pitched an inning in game 162 and then got the starting nod in game 1 of the ALDS. But yeah, surprising how few guys are left. I was at game 162 and they seemed to try to drag every Twins who played in the Metrodome out on the field and remember thinking it was kind of a shame that the local kid Perkins was the only no show from the current team (the AAA season was over by then) and it was because he and the team were actively trying to cut each others throats. Amazing fences were mended after that dust-up.

scottz
02-22-2013, 11:55 PM
Good stuff!! Time will tell how accurate you are, but solid predictions.

Shane Wahl
02-23-2013, 12:37 AM
If this team starts out with Drew Butera, Clete Thomas, and say, Eduardo Escobar on the roster, I might shoot myself. NONE of them should be on the roster. But I would actually accept Butera at the beginning. Clete Thomas is NOT good. He just isn't. He never has been. At all. If that is their decision than good lord and a half. Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez are better options.

I generally think that Tim Wood is also pretty terrible. I have no idea what this team is thinking with bringing in bad-to-mediocre older players. Tim Wood over Anthony Slama. Really?

tjsyam921
02-23-2013, 06:36 AM
I must say after seeing the picture of the Twins celebrating a big walk off win it had me excited for twins baseball until I read the article. I to believe the twins will be better this year and most of your predictions will come true. Should still be a fun summer to see how the youngsters do in the bigs and throughout the system.

gunnarthor
02-23-2013, 10:27 AM
Totally unrelated with the topic, because I just saw the pic posted with this...

Do you all realize that only Mauer and Morneau are left from the players in that game? (Perk was in AAA - begrudgingly- and Duensing did not make the team until the season after)

Clete Thomas was in the other dugout. Does that count?

Jeremy Nygaard
02-23-2013, 10:53 AM
Clete Thomas is NOT good. He just isn't. He never has been. At all. If that is their decision than good lord and a half. Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez are better options.

I agree wholeheartedly with the first half of the quote.

The reason I think Thomas gets the nod has more to do with his ability to fill in at Center Field. In the last two seasons, he's played 150 minor league games in CF. Boggs has played 6 and Ramirez 4.

If two of Mastorianni, Hicks and Benson make the roster, then Thomas won't. But if Hicks and Benson start in the minors who is the backup CF? It could be someone that ends up on the waiver-wire and I'd be absolutely be ok with that.

DAM DC Twins Fans
02-23-2013, 10:56 AM
If this team starts out with Drew Butera, Clete Thomas, and say, Eduardo Escobar on the roster, I might shoot myself. NONE of them should be on the roster. But I would actually accept Butera at the beginning. Clete Thomas is NOT good. He just isn't. He never has been. At all. If that is their decision than good lord and a half. Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez are better options.

Well, I wont go as far as shooting myself...but I agree Clete Thomas has NO PLACE on a MLB roster--neither does Butera. If Hicks doesnt start in CF and goes to minors--keep Benson as 4th OF until Hicks/Arcia is ready. As for Butera, we can do better,

I keep hoping for a spring trade to get CF--maybe trade Morneau now and move Parmalee to 1B.

I do think Twins will win between 75 and 79 games and finish above last in AL Central.

johnnydakota
02-23-2013, 11:15 AM
If this team starts out with Drew Butera, Clete Thomas, and say, Eduardo Escobar on the roster, I might shoot myself. NONE of them should be on the roster. But I would actually accept Butera at the beginning. Clete Thomas is NOT good. He just isn't. He never has been. At all. If that is their decision than good lord and a half. Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez are better options.

I generally think that Tim Wood is also pretty terrible. I have no idea what this team is thinking with bringing in bad-to-mediocre older players. Tim Wood over Anthony Slama. Really?
Ok Ted Nuggent we will hold you to it =)

Paul 1
02-23-2013, 11:25 AM
You seemed to have danced around the biggest question, what will happen to Gardy?

johnnydakota
02-23-2013, 11:36 AM
Unless there is a player added during spring training , it seems to me that Joe Benson makes the team as the 4th outfielder as long as he is healthy.
If it comes down to Clete or Benson why not take a chance on a guy who may have more upside?
Joe already is on the outside looking in as far as Prospects are concerned, so lets give him a chance and see what he does with it?

johnnydakota
02-23-2013, 11:38 AM
You seemed to have danced around the biggest question, what will happen to Gardy?

Gardy and Ryan are here at least through 2014 ... If not Ron would be tossing Terry under the bus already

Jeremy Nygaard
02-23-2013, 11:46 AM
You seemed to have danced around the biggest question, what will happen to Gardy?

Hmmm... that would have been a good one to include.

I think Grady and his whole staff make it through the year, regardless of record. If there are changes next offseason, they will happen just like they did this offseason. (For the record, I think Gardy will leave on his own if they suffer through another 90-loss season.)

Mave
02-23-2013, 12:59 PM
I have been wondering this for a while, realistically speaking... what can we expect from Chris Parmelee defensively? How will this bode for the overall team defense? Willingham on one side and a first baseman on the other side?

rickyriolo
02-23-2013, 01:14 PM
Well, I wont go as far as shooting myself...but I agree Clete Thomas has NO PLACE on a MLB roster--neither does Butera. If Hicks doesnt start in CF and goes to minors--keep Benson as 4th OF until Hicks/Arcia is ready. As for Butera, we can do better,

I keep hoping for a spring trade to get CF--maybe trade Morneau now and move Parmalee to 1B.

I do think Twins will win between 75 and 79 games and finish above last in AL Central.
i also believe Twins finish last in the Central Division but Houston Astros finish with worst record in the American league.. If most of Seth predictions come true Twins finish around 63-99...going to be a dreadful season but interested to see some of the young guys come up

Jeremy Nygaard
02-23-2013, 01:30 PM
I have been wondering this for a while, realistically speaking... what can we expect from Chris Parmelee defensively? How will this bode for the overall team defense? Willingham on one side and a first baseman on the other side?

The last time he appeared in BA's Prospect Handbook, here was the summary of his outfield defense:


With a thick, unathletic body and below-average arm, Parmelee has moved down the defensive spectrum to first base, with occasional stops on the outfield corners.

So not good...

mnfanforlife
02-23-2013, 02:25 PM
The last time he appeared in BA's Prospect Handbook, here was the summary of his outfield defense:

So not good...

Yeah, we have two-DH's in the outfield. Can't wait for Arcia's arrival. But we gotta get something good in trade for Morneau first...

mnfanforlife
02-23-2013, 02:26 PM
Yeah, we have two-DH's in the outfield. Can't wait for Arcia's arrival. But we gotta get something good in trade for Morneau first...

...no reason to rush this trade. Maybe you trade Willingham too, and make a solid return for our rebuilding club?

diehardtwinsfan
02-23-2013, 03:10 PM
I'm strangely very bullish on Deduno. I think he cuts his walk rate to 3BB/9... and if he does...

Kwak
02-23-2013, 03:23 PM
...no reason to rush this trade. Maybe you trade Willingham too, and make a solid return for our rebuilding club?

Willingham has far more value to the Twins in his natural position--DH. I have read at least hundred posts about: Trade Willingham (or Trade Morneau) and it's clear that the Twins FO has also considered those very same options--and rejected the results. Keep Willingham, re-sign him short-term, and provide a bona fide powerhitting run producer from the DH slot. The youth will takeover the OF providing the defense, speed, arms, and (hopefully) enough offense to make things interesting. Mauer catches, Doumit backs him up, (Buh-bye to Drew) because with Josh as full-time DH (spelled by Mauer and Doumit) there is no need for a third catcher. There will be a credible offense--likely well above average if the reports of the young OFs is close to accurate, a big increase in OF defense, and enough power-hitting to push the fast guys around the bases.
Read the thread on "Bad teams Rebuilding" there is a big need for a few proven veterans--especially with one at DH so he doesn't hurt his team in the field.

Halsey Hall
02-23-2013, 03:51 PM
*The Twins will be sellers at the deadline. Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham and Mike Pelfrey will bid farewell before the end of July.

I see none of the above. I may be new to the site, but old to posting. I can see no possible reason to trade Morneau. No way possible to get any kind of nearly equal return at all. And trading Willingham isn't going to happen. Both will have big years.

Halsey Hall
02-23-2013, 03:55 PM
I'm strangely very bullish on Deduno. I think he cuts his walk rate to 3BB/9... and if he does...

I totally agree, diehard!

raindog
02-23-2013, 03:55 PM
If Morneau has a big year, he will absolutely have value.

I really hope you are right about Arcia. I can't stomach watching Parmalee in RF for too long.

PseudoSABR
02-23-2013, 04:05 PM
. Keep Willingham,I agree. Unless the Twins are blown away by offers for him, keep him. Willingham is likely worth more to the Twins over the next several years than any player they could fetch for him. He's fairly inexpensive, and still has two years on his contract. Morneau is the more palatable trade candidate from the Twins perspective, though I'm not sure what kind of value we can get for him. If Morneau produces this year, I wouldn't mind an extension either.

I think we should temper our trade expectations for both these guys. Neither of them are necessarily blocking anyone coming up, and they'll help us compete in 2014 and beyond probably more than anything we'll get in return.

Arcia/Hicks/Parm in the OF, and Morneau/Hammer at 1B/DH for the next several years sounds pretty good to me.

TheLeviathan
02-23-2013, 04:25 PM
I think we should temper our trade expectations for both these guys. Neither of them are necessarily blocking anyone coming up, and they'll help us compete in 2014 and beyond probably more than anything we'll get in return.

It's highly unlikely Willingham is going to be a continuing positive force on the roster beyond 2014. His cost will more than likely increase if he continues to hit this well or his injury riddled past will come back to haunt him as his body ages. Morneau you could be right about, but his concussion history is always a ticking time-bomb that the club is going to have to consider before guaranteeing him anything.

PseudoSABR
02-23-2013, 04:40 PM
It's highly unlikely Willingham is going to be a continuing positive force on the roster beyond 2014. His cost will more than likely increase if he continues to hit this well or his injury riddled past will come back to haunt him as his body ages. Morneau you could be right about, but his concussion history is always a ticking time-bomb that the club is going to have to consider before guaranteeing him anything.I think it's likely that Willingham will be a positive force beyond 2014; maybe not to the same degree he was last year or will be this year. But I don't think he'll suddenly have negative value. Of course, I wouldn't think about extending until his contract expires, or he shows continued dominance. That said, Willingham's first full season was as 27 year old, and while he's had injuries he's collected at least 400 PAs every season since then.

In both cases, the contract matters. I'd go short term deals with vesting thresholds for PAs.

I just don't want the Twins to sell short on players now because they are losing, when those same players can help bridge the gap to the next core. We might be overpaying to keep them around, but we could also be looking at gaping holes at DH and 1B (esp. if Parm sticks in the OF or busts) as soon as next year. I also don't see them spending similar money on FAs; they are far more likely to spend on their own, imo.

Kwak
02-23-2013, 04:53 PM
The Twins will have plenty of cap space when it comes time to negotiate a new contract for Willingham. As a DH, he's not hurting the team defensively and other teams can more easily evaluate his worth to them for purposes of a trade.

stringer bell
02-23-2013, 05:13 PM
A pretty good column. I think a lot of the predictions are spot on. Time will tell.

TheLeviathan
02-23-2013, 05:28 PM
I think it's likely that Willingham will be a positive force beyond 2014; maybe not to the same degree he was last year or will be this year. But I don't think he'll suddenly have negative value. Of course, I wouldn't think about extending until his contract expires, or he shows continued dominance. That said, Willingham's first full season was as 27 year old, and while he's had injuries he's collected at least 400 PAs every season since then.

Here's the problem I see with that. First - he has had injuries, lots of them, even during his prime. He's coming up to that age threshold when professional players start to break down physically. If he's continuing to be a very productive offensive player, at that age, it's unlikely he's going to want to go year by year. And it's very unlikely he will continue to be "affordable". It's nothing personal with Willingham, I like him as a player a lot, but you're giving up a lot of potential value now (while he IS affordable and productive) in order to keep him around several seasons from now when the odds are far less likely he will be. Given that corner outfield/DH is the most easily replaced positions on the field I think you capitalize on high value now if the market presents that.

I agree with not selling short, I wouldn't just dump him to dump him. But I think there is reason to believe that he would have trade value for exactly the same reasons you believe he has value to the Twins.

diehardtwinsfan
02-23-2013, 06:09 PM
I suspect both Willingham and Morneau will be hot commodities at the deadline, and I hope that the Twins pick up a solid middle infielder and another good pitcher as centerpieces for each of them. I also kind of hope that Morneau would resign next offseason and do a DH/1B rotation with Parmalee...

Yossarian
02-23-2013, 11:45 PM
Real.

ashburyjohn
02-24-2013, 12:31 AM
I have been wondering this for a while, realistically speaking... what can we expect from Chris Parmelee defensively?

You will see the beat writer pull out his thesaurus to look up synonyms for "adequate".

Oldgoat_MN
02-24-2013, 12:44 PM
Unless there is a player added during spring training , it seems to me that Joe Benson makes the team as the 4th outfielder as long as he is healthy.
If it comes down to Clete or Benson why not take a chance on a guy who may have more upside?
Joe already is on the outside looking in as far as Prospects are concerned, so lets give him a chance and see what he does with it?

Very valid point. Makes sense.