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Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 07:28 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1395-Big-Year-for-the-Manager

Gernzy
02-21-2013, 08:05 AM
Great article Seth. Hopefully the people who want Gardy gone right now will read this and realize there is alot more to it then they think.

Winston Smith
02-21-2013, 08:33 AM
I guess the manager wins games but the players, umpires, injuries, ______ fill in the excuse lose the games?
No Gardy isn't 100% at fault but at some point it's time to move on. 10-12 years with one team is a long time, turn the page and start fresh, imo. He'll get another job.

mike wants wins
02-21-2013, 08:40 AM
For several years Seth wrote the team no longer does the little things well. Now that people are suggesting Gardenhire accountable for that, it is somehow not the coaches responsibility? Who on the roster the last few years has really grown as a player under this staff? When have they over achieved lately?

Gardy clearly is a big part of the success. But if he gets credit when they do well, he needs to get blame when they do not.

old nurse
02-21-2013, 09:05 AM
Who on the roster the last few years has really grown as a player under this staff? When have they over achieved lately?



Several Twins last year had career years. Revere ended up valuable enough that they got a starting pitcher and a prospect for him. Span developed under Gardenhire. Plouffe may have found a spot. The position players added via free agency last year did well. Diamond, DeVries and Deduno all had career years last year. Burton, Perkins and Fien all saw improvement last year. If Casilla turns it around for more than a year in Baltimore you can say it was Gardenhire's fault, but I don't know if that will happen.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 09:06 AM
Anybody remember Bill Smith. Trading away Bartlett and JJ Hardy from an organization that can't develop middle infielders. Yes, I know,, Garza, and the Santana giveaway. And my favorite, Ramos for Matt Capps. I love watching Butera. at bats, they give me a warm fuzzy feeling inside.I think the Twins should make David Kahn the GM when Ryan retires. I'm sure Gardy's slashed billys tires already.

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 09:13 AM
I would say that managers get too much credit when a team wins and too much blame when a team loses. In reality, if another manager had the exact same roster that they've had the last two years, and all the same other issues, how many more games would the Twins have won. Likewise, if there was another manager through the good years, would they really have won (or lost) any more games? It definitely goes both ways.

I've read people say that they think that the Twins have gotten "stale" in recent years... and I guess I don't know what to think about that comment. Will a new voice make the players better and hence not look stale? Would you hire a manager who yells more than Gardenhire? (Cuz he does quite a bit) Or would you want a manager that is more laid back and quiet? I guess maybe that's part of my question... what type of manager would you want to come in here? And, why would that make the Twins successful right away?

mike wants wins
02-21-2013, 09:15 AM
If managers have so little impact, Seth, why do you care who the manager is? Why are they paid as much money as they are?

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 09:20 AM
Several Twins last year had career years. Revere ended up valuable enough that they got a starting pitcher and a prospect for him. Span developed under Gardenhire. Plouffe may have found a spot. The position players added via free agency last year did well. Diamond, DeVries and Deduno all had career years last year. Burton, Perkins and Fien all saw improvement last year. If Casilla turns it around for more than a year in Baltimore you can say it was Gardenhire's fault, but I don't know if that will happen.

Good list, and obviously there have been many more over the years as well. And, I'm sure the opposite can be said.

I like Gardy. I think he's done a terrific job as the Twins manager. I'm not against them going a different direction, but I would caution those that think that is the answer to all the questions, I think they'd be disappointed. I certainly haven't agreed with everything Gardy has done during his years. But, my main point is that I don't think it's fair, or right, to solely judge his managerial abilities and whether or not he should retain his job by looking at wins and losses. So, that's my question, what are those factors for others that should determine it?

MWW makes a good note that they haven't done a lot of the little things well, but I would also say that I don't think they practice them any less than they did when TK was around, so I don't know what the reasoning is.

Willihammer
02-21-2013, 09:21 AM
Is it a fact that the Twins have not done the little things well?

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 09:22 AM
If managers have so little impact, Seth, why do you care who the manager is? Why are they paid as much money as they are?

Another fair point, but obvously the manager is a part of every team, and they are paid well... that said, 1st year managers generally make less than league minimum, and even Gardy making a couple million is not that big compared to the players who have more than 3-5 years of experience.

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 09:23 AM
Is it a fact that the Twins have not done the little things well?

Someone would have to study that and even determine what that means... their 'little' guys haven't bunted well. They don't always run the bases real well. Defense has been down the last several years, but that's certainly the players... So, I dont know if it's true or not.

mike wants wins
02-21-2013, 09:24 AM
To be clear, i don't think replacing Gardy is the one, sole, answer to the problems of this team. To be clear, I think Ryan has some great strengths. I would never argue they were not key contributors and largetly the architects of the sucess of the first decade of this century. I am arguing that every organization eventualyl replaces even its great leaders, and the best organizations don't wait too long to do so.

I think the time is right on Gardy because I think this team will be largely rebuilt from the ground up over the next few years. That is a good time to bring in a new leader, to grow with the new team.

ThePuck
02-21-2013, 09:27 AM
Great article Seth. Hopefully the people who want Gardy gone right now will read this and realize there is alot more to it then they think.

I've wanted Gardy gone since 2007.

Winston Smith
02-21-2013, 09:52 AM
What has to happen on the field before it is time to make a change? We aren't talking about a guy that has won multiple world series titles. This isn't a HOF manager that has a great post season record of success. It's a manager that has won in a mostly poor division, and hasn't won a post season game since 2004.

Sometimes that old chair or sweatshirt just has to go and start new!

fairweather
02-21-2013, 09:52 AM
It should be sink or swim. Either he makes this roster competitive from the very beginning of this season or he's gone.

jmlease1
02-21-2013, 09:53 AM
There's a school of thought (started in the NFL, but I can't recall which coach said it) that after a 10 years or so you need to move on because the players start to tune you out. I don't know if that's true or not, but I think it's a fair concern.

I would judge Gardy this season on a few factors, and winning isn't really one of them.

1. Does the team quit on him at any point in the season? If they do, then it's probably time to make a change.

2. Does Gardenhire embrace anything new this season to try and find success for this team or does he only run out the same bag of tricks? Managers need to grow too. I don't expect him to suddenly become a different guy, but if he doesn't show any growth either, it's worth considering.

3. How well does he work with the young players? This team will need to embrace the wave of talent coming up through the minors. If he's not able to work with and develop that talent, he's probably not going to be the right fit. This is admittedly a tough category to judge on; people will tend to evaluate it more on how well the young players perform, which as Seth points out isn't necessarily right.

4. Does he lose the fans? Yep, Gardy gets judged this season on PR a bit. Look, he's one of the most recognizable faces of the organization, with a serious platform and connection to the fans. If he's not able to help keep the fans connected and convince them that this team has a future worth watching, than that's a real strike against him.

All of these things are possible. I don't think any of them are unreasonable. The difficulty is none of them are easily quantifiable.

Seth is right in that managers do get more credit than they probably deserve when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses, but at the same time a lot of the criticisms leveled at Gardy have been consistent through good times and bad and a lot of them are certainly fair. The reasoning that most other managers act the same way isn't a particularly good one for keeping someone around, especially when one of the keys to success is being better at things that others fail at.

I think Terry Ryan has a lot of these things in mind, and that's why this season is a "prove it" year for Gardy. Ryan needs to see that this is the right guy for the future. Loyalty has kept him in place this long; a lot of places would have moved on already, to placate the fan base if nothing else.

DAM DC Twins Fans
02-21-2013, 10:01 AM
I am a Gardy fan and always have been. I think he has done a great job with a team that has not always been the most talented. Having said that--I agree with others--we are starting to build a new team around Hicks, Sano, Buxton, etc. I think after a dozen years it is time for a change--bring in a manager (Bruno??) to build this team.

More important and Seth didnt address this--get rid of Anderson--we need a better pitching coach (Cuellar?).

DAM DC Twins Fans
02-21-2013, 10:05 AM
There's a school of thought (started in the NFL, but I can't recall which coach said it) that after a 10 years or so you need to move on because the players start to tune you out. I don't know if that's true or not, but I think it's a fair concern.


In general I agree with the comment--but not always the case--I know soccer (what the rest of the world calls football) is not a big sport here--but arguably the best manager in any team in any sport--Sir Alex Ferguson of Man. United--has been there 26 years and looks to win another title this season...

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 10:20 AM
In general I agree with the comment--but not always the case--I know soccer (what the rest of the world calls football) is not a big sport here--but arguably the best manager in any team in any sport--Sir Alex Ferguson of Man. United--has been there 26 years and looks to win another title this season...

And being the richest club in the sporting universe has nothing to do with that.

Badsmerf
02-21-2013, 10:24 AM
Anybody remember Bill Smith. Trading away Bartlett and JJ Hardy from an organization that can't develop middle infielders.
You think Gardy had no say in these moves? Gardy doesn't make all the decisions, but he does have a say in things like this.

birdwatcher
02-21-2013, 10:49 AM
Over the years, on balance, Gardy has been regarded by the industry as being a very good manager. Does he have weaknesses? Absolutely! And some notable strengths, with clubhouse management and bullpen management most often cited.

My own opinion is that he's gotten burnt out a bit. I think he had a lousy year in 2012, and unless he bounces back in 2013, I'm going to welcome a change.

JB_Iowa
02-21-2013, 11:06 AM
I'm in the he's "stale" camp -- and it actually doesn't have a lot to do with Gardenhire himself. I believe (and believed this long before Gardenhire was hired) that most leaders have a "shelf life" of about 7-10 years, maybe a little longer. There is a reason for term limits in politics. There is a reason that the Methodist Church used to rotate ministers about every 7 years. I've seen it happen with school superintendents, hospital administrators and a number of other "leadership" positions. After a period of time, they seem to lose their effectiveness. It isn't that they are doing anything "wrong". It just becomes time for a new voice, new energy and a different leader. Sure there are exceptions but given the performance of this team the last 2 years, a leadership -- and culture -- change is needed.

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 11:08 AM
I think the time is right on Gardy because I think this team will be largely rebuilt from the ground up over the next few years. That is a good time to bring in a new leader, to grow with the new team.

I think that is a very valid reason, but again, who is brought in (or in the Twins case, brought up?)? Why? Is it Molitor, who has no record of success as a coach and no managerial success at any level? (worked with Robin Ventura, who hadn't even coached) Is it someone like Jake Mauer who all of the young players respect and admire? Is it someone like Mientkiewicz? Would they dare hire Jeff Smith (who the players can't stand)? Gene Glynn is known as a great talent evaluator, so does he serve the organization better managing in Rochester, or up in the big leagues? If winning is what people want to evaluate managers by, why not hire Ray Smith from Elizabethton?

ThePuck
02-21-2013, 11:11 AM
I think that is a very valid reason, but again, who is brought in (or in the Twins case, brought up?)? Why? Is it Molitor, who has no record of success as a coach and no managerial success at any level? (worked with Robin Ventura, who hadn't even coached) Is it someone like Jake Mauer who all of the young players respect and admire? Is it someone like Mientkiewicz? Would they dare hire Jeff Smith (who the players can't stand)? Gene Glynn is known as a great talent evaluator, so does he serve the organization better managing in Rochester, or up in the big leagues? If winning is what people want to evaluate managers by, why not hire Ray Smith from Elizabethton?

IMO, best choice would be Ryne Sandberg.

JB_Iowa
02-21-2013, 11:12 AM
I think that is a very valid reason, but again, who is brought in (or in the Twins case, brought up?)? Why? Is it Molitor, who has no record of success as a coach and no managerial success at any level? (worked with Robin Ventura, who hadn't even coached) Is it someone like Jake Mauer who all of the young players respect and admire? Is it someone like Mientkiewicz? Would they dare hire Jeff Smith (who the players can't stand)? Gene Glynn is known as a great talent evaluator, so does he serve the organization better managing in Rochester, or up in the big leagues? If winning is what people want to evaluate managers by, why not hire Ray Smith from Elizabethton? And why not consider hiring someone from OUTSIDE the organization? Culture change.

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 11:13 AM
I'm in the he's "stale" camp -- and it actually doesn't have a lot to do with Gardenhire himself. I believe (and believed this long before Gardenhire was hired) that most leaders have a "shelf life" of about 7-10 years, maybe a little longer. There is a reason for term limits in politics. There is a reason that the Methodist Church used to rotate ministers about every 7 years. I've seen it happen with school superintendents, hospital administrators and a number of other "leadership" positions. After a period of time, they seem to lose their effectiveness. It isn't that they are doing anything "wrong". It just becomes time for a new voice, new energy and a different leader. Sure there are exceptions but given the performance of this team the last 2 years, a leadership -- and culture -- change is needed.

Again, this is another good argument, but there are always counter-examples to this. Dean Smith at UNC, Coach K at Duke. Tony LaRussa in St. Louis. Joe Torre with the Yankees. Bruce Bochy with the Giants. In general though, I think this is a fair argument too. I just think that if you have a young team, why would they be "tuning out" the manager? They're trying to make their way in the big leagues. They certainly are going to listen to the manager and his coaching staff.

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 11:15 AM
And why not consider hiring someone from OUTSIDE the organization? Culture change.

The Cubs didn't even want to hire him as their manager... although he's been an OK manager in the minors and certainly has the HOF status that so many seem to think is important.

I also get the "go outside the organization" mentality, and I get that... but that isn't going to change the culture. Only way the culture changes is if everyone from Terry Ryan to Mike Radcliff to the manager to the minor league staffs get changed, which I know many reading think should happen, but it won't. That's also not the topic of this forum.

ThePuck
02-21-2013, 11:17 AM
The Cubs didn't even want to hire him as their manager... although he's been an OK manager in the minors and certainly has the HOF status that so many seem to think is important.

I also get the "go outside the organization" mentality, and I get that... but that isn't going to change the culture. Only way the culture changes is if everyone from Terry Ryan to Mike Radcliff to the manager to the minor league staffs get changed, which I know many reading think should happen, but it won't. That's also not the topic of this forum.

He's been a great minor league manager and the Phillies are grooming him now....we should offer him the job before they promote him

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 11:18 AM
Again, this is another good argument, but there are always counter-examples to this. Dean Smith at UNC, Coach K at Duke. Tony LaRussa in St. Louis. Joe Torre with the Yankees. Bruce Bochy with the Giants. In general though, I think this is a fair argument too. I just think that if you have a young team, why would they be "tuning out" the manager? They're trying to make their way in the big leagues. They certainly are going to listen to the manager and his coaching staff.

I agree with this 100%, with what it takes to make the majors and considering the hierarchical structure at the major league level, I would think as a young player you do everything to get your manager to love you, not tune him out, that's pretty counterproductive, not to mention a pretty big gamble that he'll be gone before you are.

Seth Stohs
02-21-2013, 11:40 AM
He's been a great minor league manager and the Phillies are grooming him now....we should offer him the job before they promote him

Right, but he's not going to leave the Phillies organization knowing the Manuel isn't going to be there very long.

ThePuck
02-21-2013, 11:42 AM
Right, but he's not going to leave the Phillies organization knowing the Manuel isn't going to be there very long.

He's chomping at the bit to be a Major League manager....unless Manuel is stepping down after this season, and I've heard nothing to say he would be, we should go after him.

Boom Boom
02-21-2013, 11:47 AM
I think that is a very valid reason, but again, who is brought in (or in the Twins case, brought up?)? Why? Is it Molitor, who has no record of success as a coach and no managerial success at any level? (worked with Robin Ventura, who hadn't even coached) Is it someone like Jake Mauer who all of the young players respect and admire? Is it someone like Mientkiewicz? Would they dare hire Jeff Smith (who the players can't stand)? Gene Glynn is known as a great talent evaluator, so does he serve the organization better managing in Rochester, or up in the big leagues? If winning is what people want to evaluate managers by, why not hire Ray Smith from Elizabethton?

This is the old "Who are you going to get that's better?" argument.

When Ron Gardenhire was handed the reins as manager, he didn't have a very impressive managerial track record either (0-0, I believe). Same as those other guys you mention. The Twins could try to bring in Bobby Cox but I don't think he'll want to come out of retirement.

FrodaddyG
02-21-2013, 11:47 AM
Dean Smith at UNC, Coach K at Duke. Tony LaRussa in St. Louis. Joe Torre with the Yankees. Bruce Bochy with the Giants.
Any examples of long-tenured guys who didn't win championships at any point in those runs?

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 12:14 PM
Any examples of long-tenured guys who didn't win championships at any point in those runs?

Jerry Sloan, Lindy Ruff, Andy Reid, Bo Schembechler, Chuck Knox, Dan Reeves, Marv Levy, .......some guy with the last name Grant.

FrodaddyG
02-21-2013, 12:19 PM
Jerry Sloan, Lindy Ruff, Andy Reid, Bo Schembechler, Chuck Knox, Dan Reeves, Marv Levy, .......some guy with the last name Grant.
And how many of them claimed ONE postseason series or game in the win column?

TCBurgerGuy
02-21-2013, 12:41 PM
Good points made by all on both sides of the argument. I think that there is one key factor missing from all of your points though; the Twins do not make non-player moves in-season. If Gardy is going to go, it will be at the end of the season.

MWW brought up that this may be a good time to start fresh, and I agree, but it won't be before November.

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 01:31 PM
And how many of them claimed ONE postseason series or game in the win column?

That wasn't your question but feel free to keep moving the target.The point was there are plenty of coaches/managers who have held tenure without having the good fortune of finding the Holy Grail, reason being they were quality people and by all other measures successful. The same could be said for many players.

For the record I'm not saying Gardy should stay, change inevitably happens, as it should. If one of the main arguements for firing him is that he has never delivered a championship, then I say that's pretty short sighted and too convenient.

JB_Iowa
02-21-2013, 02:07 PM
Well, I went back and looked at the records of many of the long term coaches named in twinsnorth49's post. 2 things jumped out at me: 1. most (if not all) did not have the same mid to late-career abysmal failure that Gardenhire has had the last 2 years (they were some downward trends but nothing like the win-loss % Gardenhire has had); and 2. Many of them did not have significantly more than Gardenhire's current 11 seasons with one team. And when they did have several consecutive down seasons, it looks like many of them either resigned or were fired.

jimbo92107
02-21-2013, 02:27 PM
Someone would have to study that and even determine what that means... their 'little' guys haven't bunted well. They don't always run the bases real well. Defense has been down the last several years, but that's certainly the players... So, I dont know if it's true or not.

That's another thing. When people talk about "doing the little things well," it sounds like they think that if we bunt well enough, field well enough and don't walk anybody, we'll be able to beat the Yankees.

Problem is, the Yankees do the big things well. They hire pitchers that mow down your bunters. They hire hitters that bash baseballs past your contact pitchers and your diligent fielders. And of course, their fielders do most of the "little things" well, too.

Maybe our problem is we just hear what we want or expect to hear from our middle market team. Truth is, if you want to win pennants and championships, you need a team with a lot of guys that can do the little things well, plus do the big things well. If you're wondering why the Twins installed Trevor Plouffe at 3B and now are trying to install Brian Dozier at 2B rather than Jaime Carroll, it's because the young guys hopefully can learn "little things" like consistent fielding at the same time they drive baseballs farther than Carroll ever will.

I just can't see blaming Gardenhire for managing a team that's transitioning from an indoor small-ball club to an outdoor club in a bigger park, while at the same time trying to find a winning roster that keeps changing, too. It's a very stressful task, and frankly my biggest concern is if Gardenhire still has the physical endurance to put up with it.

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 02:27 PM
Well, I went back and looked at the records of many of the long term coaches named in twinsnorth49's post. 2 things jumped out at me: 1. most (if not all) did not have the same mid to late-career abysmal failure that Gardenhire has had the last 2 years (they were some downward trends but nothing like the win-loss % Gardenhire has had); and 2. Many of them did not have significantly more than Gardenhire's current 11 seasons with one team. And when they did have several consecutive down seasons, it looks like many of them either resigned or were fired.

Most of those coaches struggled in their final year, a couple of them the last two.

I don't think the downward trend the last two season's are on Gardy, I'm OK with the "it may be time for a change" movement but not based on the last two years, especially considering the SP we've had.

As far as the length of tenure of the other coaches approaching that of Gardy, with one team, Sloan coached the Jazz for 22 years, Lindy Ruff coached the Sabres for 16 years, Bud Grant coached the Vikes for 18 years, Reid was the Head man with the Eagles for 13 seasons and Schembechler coached at Michigan for 21 years.

Levy, Reeves and Knox all had about the same tenure as Gardy has now.

CDog
02-21-2013, 03:06 PM
On the topic of whether players tune the manager out after some length of time...

From the 2010 team there are FOUR position players still with the organization. Two of them are Drew Butera and Trevor Plouffe who barely played in 2010. There are THREE pitchers left from 2010, one of whom is Glen Perkins who pitched only 21.2 innings that year.

From 2011, the only position player added is Parmelee (who had only his September callup that year, I'm fairly sure). And for pitchers you only add Swarzak plus two guys who got spot action (Diamond and Hendriks). So I don't think burnout of players on the roster being over-exposed to Gardenhire and his message is really a major issue.

FrodaddyG
02-21-2013, 03:35 PM
That wasn't your question but feel free to keep moving the target.The point was there are plenty of coaches/managers who have held tenure without having the good fortune of finding the Holy Grail, reason being they were quality people and by all other measures successful. The same could be said for many players.

For the record I'm not saying Gardy should stay, change inevitably happens, as it should. If one of the main arguements for firing him is that he has never delivered a championship, then I say that's pretty short sighted and too convenient.
I'd say a sample of a dozen years is a pretty acceptable sample size. It isn't just that he hasn't won a championship, it's that the team hasn't even been competitive in the postseason. The reason the guys you listed were on there is because their teams looked like actual contenders when they hit the postseason. Levy went to multiple Super Bowls, ditto Grant, ditto Reeves. Reid went to one SB, and multiple NFC championship games. Knox went to multiple NFC Championships. Schembechler won multiple Rose Bowls in a time when winning the Rose Bowl still meant something. Ruff sports a winning percentage over .550 in the postseason.

Guys like that stick around because of results, and when they don't perform, they get the boot in short order. (See: Reeves, Dan. NY Giants coach.)

FrodaddyG
02-21-2013, 03:36 PM
Most of those coaches struggled in their final year, a couple of them the last two.
Hmmm... something about that sounds familiar to this discussion...

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 03:50 PM
You think Gardy had no say in these moves? Gardy doesn't make all the decisions, but he does have say in things like this.

He might have thought Garza was a head case but I'm pretty sure he didn't propose trading Bartlett and Garza for Delmon Young. And I would bet my life on his not having anything to do with the Ramos for Capps trade. Bill Smith makes David Kahn look like Steven Hawkins. Insert black hole joke here.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 03:53 PM
Managers have input on who they don't want on their team but they have nothing to do with trades.

CDog
02-21-2013, 03:55 PM
And I would bet my life on his not having anything to do with the Ramos for Capps trade.

I'd be careful about life-betting on that one. I don't have any inside info on who thought what or who was pushing things, but I do know Gardenhire sure seems to be a "proven closer" guy.

Riverbrian
02-21-2013, 03:59 PM
I'd be careful about life-betting on that one. I don't have any inside info on who thought what or who was pushing things, but I do know Gardenhire sure seems to be a "proven closer" guy.

Yeah... Think about that... Betting your life over Matt Capps. It just doesn't seem like a noble end.

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 04:22 PM
Any examples of long-tenured guys who didn't win championships at any point in those runs?


I'd say a sample of a dozen years is a pretty acceptable sample size. It isn't just that he hasn't won a championship, it's that the team hasn't even been competitive in the postseason. The reason the guys you listed were on there is because their teams looked like actual contenders when they hit the postseason. Levy went to multiple Super Bowls, ditto Grant, ditto Reeves. Reid went to one SB, and multiple NFC championship games. Knox went to multiple NFC Championships. Schembechler won multiple Rose Bowls in a time when winning the Rose Bowl still meant something. Ruff sports a winning percentage over .550 in the postseason.

Guys like that stick around because of results, and when they don't perform, they get the boot in short order. (See: Reeves, Dan. NY Giants coach.)

I don't disagree with any of this, I was just responding to your initial question above, which you have now slightly altered. It just points out that there have been many coaches and managers that have lasted despite not winning it all and rightfully so.

Like I said, Im not necessarily advocating Gardy should stay, I just said that there are plenty of examples of long term coaches sticking that failed to meet what so people believe to be the gold standard. By the same token, there are probably just as many coaches who have won championships that bought them way too much currency to stick around unsuccessfully afterwards.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 04:24 PM
Yeah... Think about that... Betting your life over Matt Capps. It just doesn't seem like a noble end.

Yeah I'm sure he said to Billy, why don't we trade our consensus number two prospect on a closer that the mighty Pirates DFA'd the year before. Don't want to get into a sabr metrics argument but his peripherals pegged him as a league average middle reliever at best. It's not Capp's fault that Bill Smith is an idiot. Why do you think Ryan came back? I could sell that idiot Smith a bridge in Brooklyn.

FrodaddyG
02-21-2013, 04:31 PM
I don't disagree with any of this, I was just responding to your initial question above, which you have now slightly altered. It just points out that there have been many coaches and managers that have lasted despite not winning it all and rightfully so.

Like I said, Im not necessarily advocating Gardy should stay, I just said that there are plenty of examples of long term coaches sticking that failed to meet what so people believe to be the gold standard. By the same token, there are probably just as many coaches who have won championships that bought them way too much currency to stick around unsuccessfully afterwards.
The initial response was in reply to Seth's list, which had entirely guys who had won the pinnacle of their sports.

When you throw out the list you did, then it begs the question: Why did they stick around if they didn't win a championship? That prompted the ensuing responses. Those guys were competitive in both the regular season and the postseason, and when they weren't, they retired or got fired. At this point, Gardy is a decade removed from being "competitive" (or as close as they've been in his run) in the postseason, and two years removed from even being competitive in the regular season.

Better coaches than Gardy have been fired for less of a downturn in their team's fortunes. I mean, Dan Reeves went to three Super Bowl in four years, then got fired after going 8-8 three years later.

johnnydakota
02-21-2013, 04:31 PM
Seth mentioned , for a culture change it needs to be a complete sweep from the instructional leaques to the front office ....totally agree, but for me it is more important to have the best teachers in the game at the lower levels, why do we have mlb players who cant hit a cutoff man or know how to bunt or steal a base?im guessing joe will be the next manager as a player manager and jake will be his bench coach....so if we are going to improve it needs to be in the minors in develpoing players and in drafting and scouting

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 04:33 PM
Little known fact. During the winter GM meetings they have the winter manager's meetings at a Super 8 motel in Cedar Rapids. That's where the big moves are made.

ashburyjohn
02-21-2013, 05:13 PM
Bill Smith makes David Kahn look like Steven Hawkins.

LaTroy's little brother?


Insert black hole joke here.

Or wheelchair joke or voice-synthesizer joke, but maybe that's just me. Imagine the digitized voice offering "well then, how about Ramos for Capps?"

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 05:20 PM
I'm trade marking this. A brief history of untimely trades. If the Twins weren't such a loyal organization, Billy would be scouting in East Timor.

Riverbrian
02-21-2013, 05:28 PM
Yeah I'm sure he said to Billy, why don't we trade our consensus number two prospect on a closer that the mighty Pirates DFA'd the year before. Don't want to get into a sabr metrics argument but his peripherals pegged him as a league average middle reliever at best. It's not Capp's fault that Bill Smith is an idiot. Why do you think Ryan came back? I could sell that idiot Smith a bridge in Brooklyn.

I agree... None of this is Capp's Fault...

However, I'm not sure that you can insulate Gardenhire from front office decisions. The GM has the final say... I'm sure... but... it would be kind of a disfunctional operation if you didn't get input from the manager on team needs going forward.

I don't know for sure but I would be very surprised if Gardy's input was shut out of any or all discussions.

Bill Smith: "Gardy... We are in a playoff race... What do we need"
Gardy: "We need a closer to get us to the playoffs"
Bill Smith: "I could bring in Capps... The Nationals are shopping him... They'd like Ramos"
Gardy: "Ramos won't help us much this year and the playoffs are in our grasp... I need a closer".

I'm sure that the assistent GM and scouts are asked opinions... The Owners with the budget... All of it gets run together and the GM filters it and makes the final decision.

All in All... I'd be shocked if Gardy's input isn't a very large part of roster construction. I assume that sometimes Gardy will have to swallow some stuff he isn't comfortable with but I also assume that most of the time the GM tries to get Gardy what he asks for.

All assumptions on my part.

ThePuck
02-21-2013, 05:29 PM
I agree... None of this is Capp's Fault...

However, I'm not sure that you can insulate Gardenhire from front office decisions. The GM has the final say... I'm sure... but... it would be kind of a disfunctional operation if you didn't get input from the manager on team needs going forward.

I don't know for sure but I would be very surprised if Gardy's input was shut out of any or all discussions.

Bill Smith: "Gardy... We are in a playoff race... What do we need"
Gardy: "We need a closer to get us to the playoffs"
Bill Smith: "I could bring in Capps... The Nationals are shopping him... They'd like Ramos"
Gardy: "Ramos won't help us much this year and the playoffs are in our grasp... I need a closer".

I'm sure that the assistent GM and scouts are asked opinions... The Owners with the budget... All of it gets run together and the GM filters it and makes the final decision.

All in All... I'd be shocked if Gardy's input isn't a very large part of roster construction. I assume that sometimes Gardy will have to swallow some stuff he isn't comfortable with but I also assume that most of the time the GM tries to get Gardy what he asks for.

All assumptions on my part.

funny thing is, at that point of the season, we had lost ONE game in which Rauch was brought in to SAVE a game.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 05:37 PM
Wow. I managed to include Steven Hawkins and (indirectly) Noam Chomsky in a baseball thread. Lets play six degrees of Marx (Karl not Groucho)

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 05:44 PM
Gardy's input is who he doesn't want on the team (think Lohse) and what type of player (supposed closer etc.) he does want. But he has no say on who gets traded to get that player.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 05:49 PM
Think Moneyball

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 05:53 PM
Art Howe had no say.

Riverbrian
02-21-2013, 05:56 PM
funny thing is, at that point of the season, we had lost ONE game in which Rauch was brought in to SAVE a game.

Dont get me wrong... I HATed that trade with a Capitol HAT. But if memory serves me... Rauch was doing Ok but he was starting to wear a bit. Nathan was out and Rauch was given the role by default. His saves were never comfortable saves.

Regardless... I was excited about Ramos... I was reading Seth's blog and Seth was very Pro Ramos and I was reading Tom Kelly's assessments and Kelly wasn't really the type to glow about young players but his comments were glowing about Ramos.

And I wasn't a Capps fan at all but he did close as we reached the playoffs.

Riverbrian
02-21-2013, 06:07 PM
Think Moneyball

Moneyball was a book that was turned into a movie. The screenplay was written by Aaron Sorkin.

In real life... Billy Beane was introducing a new way of thinking surrounded by traditionalists. Heads butt every time in those situations. In Baseball, In Schools, in every work place.

Art Howe and Billy Beane were estranged and Art Howe was released from his contract despite a winning record.

The same thing would happen with Gardenhire and Ryan... If Gardy wasn't allowed to participate in the discussions and its safe to assume that Gardy and Ryan have learned to trust each other working together this long.

I would be very surprised if Gardy didn't have a lot of input on roster decisions.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 06:49 PM
Moneyball was a book that was turned into a movie. The screenplay was written by Aaron Sorkin.

In real life... Billy Beane was introducing a new way of thinking surrounded by traditionalists. Heads butt every time in those situations. In Baseball, In Schools, in every work place.

Art Howe and Billy Beane were estranged and Art Howe was released from his contract despite a winning record.

The same thing would happen with Gardenhire and Ryan... If Gardy wasn't allowed to participate in the discussions and its safe to assume that Gardy and Ryan have learned to trust each other working together this long.

I would be very surprised if Gardy didn't have a lot of input on roster decisions.
I was speaking about the book. But I'm sure you are aware the A's won the AL west last year and I'm not willing to attribute that to Bob Melvin's acumen in player acquisitions. Call me crazy. But if that is the case, the Twins should trade Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Warren Buffet to acquire him.

Thrylos
02-21-2013, 07:03 PM
There's a school of thought (started in the NFL, but I can't recall which coach said it) that after a 10 years or so you need to move on because the players start to tune you out. I don't know if that's true or not, but I think it's a fair concern.

I would judge Gardy this season on a few factors, and winning isn't really one of them.

1. Does the team quit on him at any point in the season? If they do, then it's probably time to make a change..

His team has always quit in the post-season. Always.

Post-season record is a very important factor as well (and I don't buy the "crapshoot" analogy; were it one, the Twins would have won one World Series and been in at least 2 others this millennium. And they didn't; and I cannot help pointing the finger for that at the Manager of the Millennium, esp the season they had both the MVP and the Cy Young award winners.)

Firing a manager, a general manager, a coach gives a message to the fans and the players that the people who are running the team care. The people who are running the Twins apparently are fine with the way this team has been going and by the fact that this team has not won a world series since 1991. I have a problem with that.
Maybe they have been fine when a mediocre product was selling tickets. Now that it is not, I hope they are not...

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 07:10 PM
There have been player managers but, as far as I know, there has never been a manager GM. I will have to go meditate in the desert for forty days to solve that riddle within a conundrum.

Thrylos
02-21-2013, 07:21 PM
There have been player managers but, as far as I know, there has never been a manager GM. I will have to go meditate in the desert for forty days to solve that riddle within a conundrum.

Um... Try a manager/GM/owner: The Twins' Franchise very own Clark Griffith (he managed the senators from 1912-1920; had a minority stake since 1912 and became a single owner for the last 2 seasons he managed the team,) uncle and adopted father of Calvin Griffith who moved the Twins to Minnesota.

(the concept of GM did not exist then, but owners had GM responsibilities as well)

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 07:23 PM
I stand corrected. I should have said in the last 100 years.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 07:25 PM
Interesting side note. Calvin's grandson used to make book for me. I should have known.

snepp
02-21-2013, 07:28 PM
How about Connie Mack?

Thrylos
02-21-2013, 07:29 PM
I stand corrected. I should have said in the last 100 years.

Make it 90. It was in 1919 and 1920. ;)

LastOnePicked
02-21-2013, 07:42 PM
If I'm in an executive position with the Twins, here's what I'm watching closely:

1) How does Gardy respond to the new coaches? Steinbach, Cuellar and Brunansky were brought in to shake up the stagnation, and they need opportunities to have their voices heard by the team. Unfortunately, Gardy isn't off to an encouraging start. He's made passive-aggressive responses towards Steinbach, joking that he "looks forward" to Steinbach ripping Mauer if he goes 5-for-5 but calls a bad game. Later, as reported on ESPN 1500, he hinted that while he affirms Brunansky's new role, Vavra already has established relationships with certain players, and that he'll expect that coaching relationship to continue if Brunansky is "busy" with other players. I'm thinking that it might have been smarter for Ryan to cut ties with Vavra and Ullger, rather than reduce/change their positions and invite a confusion of roles.

2) How do the prospects respond to Gardy? Will Gardy call players out for their perceived attitude, or their play on the field? If Gardenhire begins marginalizing young players because of their enthusiasm or emotional responses to the game, I'll be concerned. Keep the focus on description of their play, and not assumptions about their character.

That said, I've argued that Ryan is a smart man. I believe he's going to have to make a very difficult decision during 2013, and, based on previous articles, I now expect him to hand the reigns over to Molitor before the start of 2014.

bcntwinsfan
02-21-2013, 07:45 PM
How about Connie Mack?

He was a part owner. I'm not sure that qualifies as GM. Murky waters. I hope you all understand my initial point. A manager definately has say on who he doesn't want on his team and what type of player he feels the team needs to acquire. But it is the job of the GM and assistant GM to target said players and make the deals to acquire them (or get rid of them) as the case may be. I would hope that if Bill Smith had ran the Ramos Capps trade by Gardy, he would have told him to sodomize himself. All conjecture. But I think we can all agree that there were many egregious personnel moves made while Billy boy was GM.

Riverbrian
02-21-2013, 10:28 PM
I was speaking about the book. But I'm sure you are aware the A's won the AL west last year and I'm not willing to attribute that to Bob Melvin's acumen in player acquisitions. Call me crazy. But if that is the case, the Twins should trade Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Warren Buffet to acquire him.

I am aware that the A's won the West and after reading this I'm really not sure if we are talking about the same thing anymore.

I'm really not comfortable making a definitive statement on how the Twins front office comes to conclusions and executes... I'm not on the inside.

I don't believe that Terry Ryan runs the squad like we run our fantasy baseball teams. There are many departments and directors and coordinators who run each department and many employees who are knowlegeable baseball people employed in each department.

In other words... Many people... Who would be a complete waste of employment... If their opinions carry no influence at all... The GM has to handle a bunch of departments from medical to scouting. I think it's entirely possible that Terry Ryan has signed players that he has no or very little knowledge of... on complete trust of someone working under him that is making a recommendation. I think it's possible that Rob Antony has completed player deals with Terry Ryan's proxy.

Ron Gardenhire is the head of a rather important department as the field manager. It would awfully strange if he had no influence at all. If he didn't... Gardy would have left a long time ago I assume because people tend to want to have a say in their own destiny.

I'm willing to bet (not my life) that they trust each other and efforts are made to address Gardy's wishes and therefore he has influence.

You said that Gardy's influence was who he didn't want on the team(Lohse)... And what type of player he does want(supposed closer).

Well if that's the only input he gets and I don't know how you can say with definition that you know the boundries of Gardys input.... but if thats all he gets... That's still influence.

Unless you are on the inside... I won't assume you are not... Unless you are on the inside... You can't say that Gardy had no knowledge of the Ramos Capps deal and you can't say that if he did have knowledge that he didn't say I need a closer now and Ramos cant help me this year...

Just like I can't say it did or didn't happen... We don't know.

With the many people employed to gather information... I think it's quite possible that someone else besides Bill Smith supported the Ramos Capps trade. It would be pretty rogue and gutty for the GM to not only ignore everyone's advice working below him and add payroll at the same time when he has to justify that increase to his Boss the CEO.

I don't know... I just have a hard time believing that Gardy has no influence and that was how the discussion started.

Actually... I just wanted to comment about "betting your life". I thought it was funny.

Physics Guy
02-21-2013, 11:19 PM
His team has always quit in the post-season. Always.

Wow. Now that is a bold statement. I'd like you to say that face to face with Hunter or a few others on those teams. You must have some type of insider information to be able to make such a statement. Or is it just more rhetoric to rip on Gardy that we should just accept as truth because you say so? Of course teams work their tails off all season to make the playoffs and then say, "Good enough, let's go home."

twinsnorth49
02-21-2013, 11:39 PM
Wow. Now that is a bold statement. I'd like you to say that face to face with Hunter or a few others on those teams. You must have some type of insider information to be able to make such a statement. Or is it just more rhetoric to rip on Gardy that we should just accept as truth because you say so? Of course teams work their tails off all season to make the playoffs and then say, "Good enough, let's go home."

Where's that damn Like feature when you need it.

Top Gun
02-22-2013, 12:45 AM
I guess Gardy really wanted Correia bad!

Jerr
02-22-2013, 08:43 AM
I'm in the he's "stale" camp -- and it actually doesn't have a lot to do with Gardenhire himself. I believe (and believed this long before Gardenhire was hired) that most leaders have a "shelf life" of about 7-10 years, maybe a little longer. There is a reason for term limits in politics. There is a reason that the Methodist Church used to rotate ministers about every 7 years. I've seen it happen with school superintendents, hospital administrators and a number of other "leadership" positions. After a period of time, they seem to lose their effectiveness. It isn't that they are doing anything "wrong". It just becomes time for a new voice, new energy and a different leader. Sure there are exceptions but given the performance of this team the last 2 years, a leadership -- and culture -- change is needed.


Well put and Gardy needs to be judged by how this team responds this year.
If, they do poorly Gardy must leave, as it will show his shelf life has expired!
That said, I hope Twins do well and he stays for their better years ahead.

ThePuck
02-22-2013, 10:14 AM
http://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/Art-Howe-livid-over-his-portrayal-in-Moneyball-2303793.php

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2011/09/28/art-howe-livid-over-his-portrayal-in-moneyball/

Art Howe talking about the movie, Moneyball.

LoganJones
02-22-2013, 10:40 AM
Wow. Now that is a bold statement. I'd like you to say that face to face with Hunter or a few others on those teams. You must have some type of insider information to be able to make such a statement. Or is it just more rhetoric to rip on Gardy that we should just accept as truth because you say so? Of course teams work their tails off all season to make the playoffs and then say, "Good enough, let's go home."
Not bold, there are more accurate mean words. I mean really, the payers hate him SO MUCH that they are just a few games from their goal and they all say 'nah, Gardy's a chump, let's tank this.' No one actually thinks anything of the sort happened. It's just fun sometimes to say outrageous things to get attention.

ThePuck
02-22-2013, 12:25 PM
In 2006, we had the MVP, Cy Young, and batting champ, with a power hitting, run producing, gold glove CF and a power hitting run producing RF. Not to mention a top three closer leading the best bullpen in baseball.

People always praise Gardy for doing so much with so little during his time. So little compared to what powerhouse AL Central team, exactly? I ask because that's who we competed with for division titles.


Not only that, but the same people who praise Gardy for doing so much with so little now say things like What do you expect him to do, with so little. Wait a minute...

twinsnorth49
02-22-2013, 12:34 PM
In 2006, we had the MVP, Cy Young, and batting champ, with a power hitting, run producing, gold glove CF and a power hitting run producing RF. Not to mention a top three closer leading the best bullpen in baseball.

People always praise Gardy for doing so much with so little during his time. So little compared to what powerhouse AL Central team, exactly? I ask because that's who we competed with for division titles.


Not only that, but the same people who praise Gardy for doing so much with so little now say things like What do you expect him to do, with so little. Wait a minute...

I don't think it falls on him either way, the players play the game, the manager fills out the lineup card, makes a few in game decisions and generally keeps the inmates from running the asylum. He gets too much credit and blame at the same time, another manager could have easily accomplished what Gardy did, no different than when TK was here, by the same token I don't think another manager could have polished the last 2 years of turds into anything more than what they were.

A new voice, the perception of what change could represent, good for the fans, I don't think it changes the play on the field all that much.

ashburyjohn
02-22-2013, 01:12 PM
His team has always quit in the post-season. Always.

Others have already challenged this view, and I already said what I'm about to say in another thread, but... certain things that work for all players on the field during the regular season suddenly stop working when the post-season starts, and then the elite talent starts to assert itself. "Huh, he didn't swing at that pitch outside and in the dirt on 1-2. What do you wanna try next, sneak a fastball by him maybe?"

Nobody quits in the post-season. That just flies in the face of, well, everything.