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Jeremy Nygaard
02-18-2013, 07:48 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1381-Draft-Board-v-1-0-(2-17)

Otwins
02-18-2013, 11:47 AM
Boras does not have the leverage he did last year. What is Appel going to do go to graduate school? He will sign for slot value. That being said he may be the 1st pick and get his money. If he is available at #4 and the twins like him they should draft him.

johnnydakota
02-18-2013, 11:58 AM
thanks Jeremy , nice read

Twins Twerp
02-18-2013, 12:07 PM
Dont touch the guy. Boris is an ass. U dont want to waste the number 4 pick on a guy who is asking for over a million over slot. Plus how many 200 inning games does he have

Jeremy Nygaard
02-18-2013, 12:08 PM
Boras does not have the leverage he did last year. What is Appel going to do go to graduate school? He will sign for slot value. That being said he may be the 1st pick and get his money. If he is available at #4 and the twins like him they should draft him.

I've stopped thinking any system can beat Scott Boras at his game. I don't know what Appel would do, but if he's in a situation to sign for "slot", which is less than what he turned down last year... I don't think he'll sign.

The irony is that #1 is going to be Boras v. Houston again and last year it didn't work out for Boras. Houston also had a great draft. I bet they're happy with they decision they made (and might make it again).

gunnarthor
02-18-2013, 12:09 PM
Good write up, Jeremy. It'll be interesting to follow college baseball this year. I guess I'm really hoping Appel falls to the Twins. I'd also like to see the Twins take a chance with their second pick on someone like Florida pitcher Karstan (I think is his name) who got hurt but had top 10 stuff. He didn't take 2m as a high schooler. Now with an injury and falling draft stock, maybe he'll want to start his pro career and get some money.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-18-2013, 12:13 PM
I don't know what the CBA explicitly prohibits, but would Boras take slot in return for a handshake agreement that Appel gets called up in September, thus getting a (delayed) head start on service time and free agency? Or would he take slot with the parameters of a major-league contract worked out even though it can't be signed? I would consider both. I would worry, though, that Boras is a snake (he is) and would turn around and try to get the MLB to void whatever agreement was signed, to make Appel a free agent.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-18-2013, 12:16 PM
Good write up, Jeremy. It'll be interesting to follow college baseball this year. I guess I'm really hoping Appel falls to the Twins. I'd also like to see the Twins take a chance with their second pick on someone like Florida pitcher Karstan (I think is his name) who got hurt but had top 10 stuff. He didn't take 2m as a high schooler. Now with an injury and falling draft stock, maybe he'll want to start his pro career and get some money.

Thanks to those leaving compliments.

I am under the impression that Whitson will redshirt (still would be eligible for the draft) and return for his junior year next year. Considering it's a shoulder deal and the likelihood is that he won't be able to throw before the draft, I would bet that Whitson doesn't go in the Top 10 rounds (those tied to money), but goes later so that teams could a) spend money the saved on him and b) hopefully see him throw before July 15. Smart money says the Twins won't even kick those tires.

nfisch22
02-18-2013, 12:24 PM
Right now there is no way I have Smith in my top 10 if I'm the Twins. We need Pitching, Catching and a SS. Smith is very good hitting OF or 1B which if you look at our farm system we don't need. I would have Frazier or Meadows way ahead of Smith. The other guy to watch would be Trey Ball from a HS in Indiana. He's a tall and projectable LHP. He's 6'6" and throws in the low 90's. Give him a few years to add some muscle and you may be looking at a very good pitching prospect for the Twins.

glunn
02-18-2013, 01:10 PM
Great post Jeremy, and great follow ups.

Celebrity Weddings!
02-18-2013, 01:16 PM
Plus how many 200 inning games does he have

Zero?

Seth Stohs
02-18-2013, 01:16 PM
There's no question, Jeremy is the expert on the draft here at Twins Daily. Be sure to follow in him twitter and check back frequently for his articles on the draft! Great stuff!

And, frankly, I don't think that the Twins would be afraid to take Appel at all, if they believed he was the best guy available. I'd be surprised if Appel didn't sign this year. There is less leverage. His options are certainly more limited. And the Twins aren't afraid to go a little over-slot to get him or anyone. They've shown that before. It may mean taking a couple of college seniors in the next 10 picks, but that's OK.

markos
02-18-2013, 01:41 PM
I'm a big fan of this new idea!

Did you consider any of the prep shortstops for your list? JP Crawford, Oscar Mercado, Jan Hernandez and Chris Rivera have all been mentioned on various first round lists, though they each have significant fielding or hitting questions. If they are able to put it all together in the spring, they may move up quickly.

I'm looking forward to following your updates throughout the spring.

ScottyB
02-18-2013, 02:48 PM
I'd stay away from Appel, Boris is a bloodsucker, besides Manaea is a lefty, and that's something we're short on in starters. Hadn't realized that Parmelee was a Boris guy. By the by, the only reason Boris had Pelfrey sign here was on specific instructions from Pelfrey. Apparently his wife has family here and he told Boris to get him a contract with the Twins.

edavis0308
02-18-2013, 02:50 PM
What exactly did not signing last year leave Appel for options this year? What happens if he doesn't sign again this year? I've never heard of such a thing happening.

darin617
02-18-2013, 02:53 PM
Quick question for you Jeremy, how did last years predictions compare with the actual results? I am in no way trying to be a pain. I was just curious how things turned out compared to predictions.

Seth Stohs
02-18-2013, 03:01 PM
What exactly did not signing last year leave Appel for options this year? What happens if he doesn't sign again this year? I've never heard of such a thing happening.

Look up two very different results of Boras having players hold out... 1.) JD Drew, 2.) Matt Harrington.

drjim
02-18-2013, 03:51 PM
People really need to stop with the Boras stuff. Just because he is the best known agent doesn't mean he does stuff that other agents don't do or won't do.

He's a good agent with great knowledge of the market and CBA but he still ultimately works for his client.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-18-2013, 04:04 PM
http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=1209My mock was better than I remembered.

I also recall - it's on a thread somewhere that I couldn't find - projecting Walker to the Twins. I thought Mitch Brown would be a Twin, liked Berrios (as you can see in the link), but didn't anticipate the college relievers.

nicksaviking
02-18-2013, 04:05 PM
Consider that if Appel is the guy, the Twins will be largely pinning their hopes for future rotation stabbility on Appel and Alex Meyer, two Boras clients. If they succeed, it's likely 6 years and out unless they are traded earlier. They're not going to be getting any pre-arbitration contract extensions with either of them, Boras doesn't do that.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-18-2013, 04:11 PM
I'm a big fan of this new idea!

Did you consider any of the prep shortstops for your list? JP Crawford, Oscar Mercado, Jan Hernandez and Chris Rivera have all been mentioned on various first round lists, though they each have significant fielding or hitting questions. If they are able to put it all together in the spring, they may move up quickly.

I'm looking forward to following your updates throughout the spring.

To my knowledge, the Twins view Mercado and Crawford as 1st rounders. Mercado may be more likely to stick at SS. A team that believes in Crawford at SS will take him before the Twins select in the 2nd round. Hernandez's draft stock will change until the Excellence Tournament. Don't have a great feel on Rivera yet.

Obviously opinions can change daily.

Rick Niedermann
02-18-2013, 05:29 PM
Look up two very different results of Boras having players hold out... 1.) JD Drew, 2.) Matt Harrington.

Glad you pointed out Matt Harrington Seth. He was offered 4 million once after being the number one overall pick, didn't sign. Changed to Boras as an agent and again refused a 1.2 million dollar offer from the Padres. His arm went bad. All those millions down the drain. I hope Mark Appel reads this story and the comments.

drjim
02-18-2013, 05:35 PM
Consider that if Appel is the guy, the Twins will be largely pinning their hopes for future rotation stabbility on Appel and Alex Meyer, two Boras clients. If they succeed, it's likely 6 years and out unless they are traded earlier. They're not going to be getting any pre-arbitration contract extensions with either of them, Boras doesn't do that.

Actually Boras does sign pre-arb extensions, especially for pitchers. Money has to be market price, he won't give a discount.

Thrylos
02-18-2013, 05:43 PM
I don't know... Knowing the Twins, if Clint Frazier is still available at number 4, I just cannot see them pass...
(of course it is still way too early to even think about draft. Give it a good 2-3 months for the High School and College seasons to start and for injuries to happen etc...)

halfchest
02-18-2013, 06:10 PM
Gotta like Appel if he's available. I can't imagine the guy holding out and ending up playing Independent Ball for a year. If he does it a second time I can't see any team wasting a high pick on him the following year. That said he'll go for slot at least, I just can't see him being unreasonable like he was this past year.

The best thing about him is that he'll likely move fast through the system to join the other guys that should be ready by 2014. We could easily be looking at a 2014 rotation made up of some combo Meyer, May, Gibson, Appel(at some point), Diamond, Hendriks, Worley. That's not including guys like BJ Hermsen and Alex Wimmers who have a shot to be right there with a good year. That's a nice group to have fighting for rotations spots come 2014 and 2015.

kab21
02-18-2013, 07:08 PM
Consider that if Appel is the guy, the Twins will be largely pinning their hopes for future rotation stabbility on Appel and Alex Meyer, two Boras clients. If they succeed, it's likely 6 years and out unless they are traded earlier. They're not going to be getting any pre-arbitration contract extensions with either of them, Boras doesn't do that.

I think it's okay to worry about this issue in 2020 or 2021... The pitching is abysmal now and I don't think you pass on a guy with his skills unless an equally good prospect also drops to #4.

It will be interesting to see how the next couple of months shake out. Right now the draft is about 3 very good college pitchers and a few toolsy OF'ers. At this point the pitchers have to be at the very top of the list but the Twins pick #4.

It would be interesting to know if the new CBA did away with inserting a first season MLB call up similar to Chris Sale a few years ago. As far as I know it didn't. I know they got rid of MLB contracts stretching the bonus over a number of seasons but I'm unsure if a mandatory call up was also eliminated. It's one area that agents can still game the system or at least even the field against GMs gaming service time.

Seth Stohs
02-18-2013, 09:53 PM
Don't forget that the Twins can then trade guys like that in their 4th or 5th seasons for a big haul, as the A's have shown in some of their deals.

RodneyKline
02-18-2013, 11:32 PM
Anyone who drafts for needs and doesn't take the best player on the board in any sport is making a mistake most of the time. In baseball, where so many draft picks are traded, take years to surface at the mlb level and are far from sure things no matter who you draft, is making a mistake every time! You would be stupid not to take the player you believe has the best odds of being an impact MLB player regardless of the position the pro level needs. Putting more emphasis on the position they play is OK. In other words a SS, LHP starter, CF, or C would be OK to consider over a corner outfielder, corner infielder or a RH relief pitcher for example if they are equal odds to be an impact player but what the team needs in 4 or 5 years will likely change and that player could always be traded for a King's ransom if it turns out that the unlikely result is that you have two superstars at the same position. Just land the superstar. You never know what your team will look like when this player is ready. Just take the best player when everything is considered except for your MLB needs.

gunnarthor
02-19-2013, 09:01 AM
Thanks to those leaving compliments.

I am under the impression that Whitson will redshirt (still would be eligible for the draft) and return for his junior year next year. Considering it's a shoulder deal and the likelihood is that he won't be able to throw before the draft, I would bet that Whitson doesn't go in the Top 10 rounds (those tied to money), but goes later so that teams could a) spend money the saved on him and b) hopefully see him throw before July 15. Smart money says the Twins won't even kick those tires.

You're probably right. But the Twins picked Bard at #42 who didn't pitch after March with a torn lat muscle (I believe). His slot signing was 1.22 which is what he took. Whitson wants more $ but he had a bad sophomore season and now has had a big injury. Maybe he'd sign. I think the Twins draft strategy is to, more or less, play it level so they probably wouldn't be able to draft someone in round 11 and offer him a huge signing bonus. I thought there was a thread on this but I couldn't find it.

Big City
02-19-2013, 10:37 AM
Great write-up, thanks for the pre-draft info.

First Buxton, then possibly Appel??? I've no clue who's in the 2014 draft but the Twins are raking in amazing prospects. Appel just fits so perfectly with our group of top prospects a year or two away from Minnesota. This is exactly what we need is to graduate a group of prospects to play together in Minnesota for the next 6 years. I really don't care that our rotation will be almost completely RHPs and I think it actually plays better to Target Field since RF's more difficult to hit HR's than LF. If the Twins have to go a bit over slot to sign Appel, I'd say do it, we'll kick ourselves later if we don't.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-19-2013, 10:41 AM
Gunn: The Twins will have a few different strategies they could choose from. One would be saving money like the Astros did last year. I don't think it would be their top choice, but something they considered (it's alluded to in my interview with Sean Johnson).

Big City: The 2014 top prospects right now are LHP Carlos Rodon, NC State and C Alex Jackson, CA HS. There are also two other highly-regarded college pitchers - Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt and Nick Burdi, Louisville. The Twins took Burdi out of high school.

jimbo92107
02-19-2013, 11:05 AM
Mark Appel may be a Scott Boras client, but he'd also be the best starting pitcher in the Twins organization the moment he set foot on the Target Field grass. His mechanics remind me of Mariano Rivera, with an incredibly direct transfer of power from body to baseball. He looks like he could dominate the league for a decade. Draft him and pay him, like Mauer. He's not just a horse, he's a derby winner.

cmb0252
02-22-2013, 12:22 PM
The whole boras/appel thing is way over blown. If the twins rank him as the best talent at 4 and he is there, take him. Just like last year with Buxton the twins need to take the best player available regardless of position/agent.

At this point I'm really not that high on any of the top three pitchers. I prefer gausman last year to any of them but wouldn't be disappointed if the twins took one at 4. If Bryant can prove he is a 3b and not a 1b he gets my vote. I love his power.

FrodaddyG
02-22-2013, 12:33 PM
The whole boras/appel thing is way over blown. If the twins rank him as the best talent at 4 and he is there, take him. Just like last year with Buxton the twins need to take the best player available regardless of position/agent.
Until you factor in the draft pool limitations. If Boras/Appel are asking for the moon again, you're risking either killing your flexibility for the rest of your signings, or punting the pick until the following year.

beckmt
02-22-2013, 12:39 PM
This is about taking the best player available. Do not compromise or mess this up.

cmb0252
02-22-2013, 01:00 PM
If boras/appel are asking for an irrational number he can go to the independent league. Just like he went back to college this year. It is Boras' job to get Appel the money he is asking for and it is the job of our scouts to figure out if they can sign him or not. As fans we hate the business side of baseball but it is part of the game.

I don't feel bad for the pirates organization at all. They didn't think Appel would be there and never talked to boras beforehand about his demands before taking him. That's on their front office. Do I feel bad for the fan base? Definitely. Tallion/Cole/appel would be a nasty 1-2-3 punch.

FrodaddyG
02-22-2013, 01:07 PM
If boras/appel are asking for an irrational number he can go to the independent league. Just like he went back to college this year. It is Boras' job to get Appel the money he is asking for and it is the job of our scouts to figure out if they can sign him or not. As fans we hate the business side of baseball but it is part of the game.
So which is it, "the Boras thing is overblown", or "take him and if he doesn't like it, he can go to the Indy league"?

cmb0252
02-22-2013, 01:33 PM
So which is it, "the Boras thing is overblown", or "take him and if he doesn't like it, he can go to the Indy league"?
Both? Scouting isn't just grading tools but gagging signability. Especially in this new CBA. If Appel is there at 4, is the highest player on their board, and feel there is a good chance to sign him you take him. If the scouts gagged his signability wrong and he goes to the Indy leagues that's on us. At this point we don't know what it will take to sign Appel, much less if the Twins will even have him rated that high, so I don't see the point of saying not to draft Appel because Boras is his agent.

nicksaviking
02-22-2013, 02:06 PM
I don't feel bad for the pirates organization at all. They didn't think Appel would be there and never talked to boras beforehand about his demands before taking him. That's on their front office. Do I feel bad for the fan base? Definitely. Tallion/Cole/appel would be a nasty 1-2-3 punch.

Shame on Pittsburgh for not acquiesing to the almighty Scott Boras.

Boras obviously did talk to some teams about what kind of salary he wanted, that's why everyone knew Appel was going to try to eat up nearly all of a teams draft allowence. Pittsburgh took a chance that Appel would tell his agent to go die and accept the best offer they could make instead of going back to school and risk it. Pittsburgh knew what Boras was asking for, they thought they'd take a gamble, it didn't work.

Boras is bad for baseball, advising young men like Appel to make obscene demands and then if they don't get it, go back to school or play independant ball. It's a huge risk for the player but hardly any sweat for Boras. Betting $6 million dollars is nothing for a filthy rich dirtball like Boras, but he's talked a guy who has nothing into taking the gamble.

ashburyjohn
02-22-2013, 02:28 PM
If boras/appel are asking for an irrational number

"My client wants Pi million dollars a year, or there's no deal."

/ sorry, I had to

cmb0252
02-22-2013, 02:51 PM
"My client wants Pi million dollars a year, or there's no deal."

/ sorry, I had to
Haha, I'm glad you did. Cracked me up.

Pit did take a chance on Appel and it didn't work out. It is the front offices job to gage signability. Just like it is Scott Boras' job to advise his client. No one forced Appel to hire Boras. Also, a huge risk for the player? Most players maybe but not Appel. Quoting John Sickles today; "With a Stanford education and his family background, Appel could walk away from baseball and it wouldn’t impact his quality of life. He’s never going to have to work at McDonald’s or wonder how he’s going to pay the rent."

While I'm not a huge Boras fan lets not act like the Billionaire, with a B, owners weren't the ones who pushed for a amateur spending cap into the CBA. Poor billionaire owners who tried to limit the amount of money 17-22 year old kids could make comes back to bite them in the butts. I feel so bad for them I might cry.

FrodaddyG
02-22-2013, 02:55 PM
Quoting John Sickles today; "With a Stanford education and his family background, Appel could walk away from baseball and it wouldn’t impact his quality of life. He’s never going to have to work at McDonald’s or wonder how he’s going to pay the rent."
Obviously there's lots of non-baseball jobs that will offer him $5M before he works a day for them.

nicksaviking
02-22-2013, 03:09 PM
While I'm not a huge Boras fan lets not act like the Billionaire, with a B, owners weren't the ones who pushed for a amateur spending cap into the CBA. Poor billionaire owners who tried to limit the amount of money 17-22 year old kids could make comes back to bite them in the butts. I feel so bad for them I might cry.

I don't feel bad for the owners either, I could care less if they make a dime, but the fact is they will and they aren't going to let signing baseball players cut into their profit margins. Can the owners afford these huge contracts that have come about the last 15 years because of agents like Scott Boras (mostly Scott Boras)? Of course but they're just passing the buck and marking up ticket/concession/memerobelia prices and rates they charge advertisers and broadcasting companies. The broadcasting companies of course won't take the hit so they pass the buck to the consumer too. Boras isn't bad for the owners because at the end of the day everyone just passes the check to the low man on the totem poll; us. Boras is bad for baseball.

diehardtwinsfan
02-22-2013, 04:30 PM
let's not blame player salaries for high ticket prices. Those prices are going to be whatever people are willing to pay, regardless of what the players make... The only thing the CBA is doing is capping their expenses.

ashburyjohn
02-22-2013, 04:55 PM
let's not blame player salaries for high ticket prices. Those prices are going to be whatever people are willing to pay, regardless of what the players make... The only thing the CBA is doing is capping their expenses.

This. I was on a riff the other day about scalpers pocketing the difference in street price versus face value, or the owners getting more via their new pricing policies. I could have made my post even longer by observing that the money is there for the taking, regardless of who ends up getting it. We're not being priced out of Twins tickets because of greedy owners or greedy players. We're being priced out by schmuck stock brokers and anyone else with large disposable income who can bid up the price regardless of what I'm willing to pay. Baseball is only the collective middleman.

maxisagod
02-22-2013, 05:17 PM
Obviously there's lots of non-baseball jobs that will offer him $5M before he works a day for them.
cmb0252 is referring to the comment section of this link:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/22/4013450/2013-mlb-draft-top-100-draft-prospects
You right not many will offer you 5M or 100,000 dollars; that would set you up with a great windfall for the rest of your life. The point Sickels seems to be making is if you already have a large fiscal safety net in the form of a well off family,and a Sanford eduction, and then you turn down millions from the Pirates it may not just be because your agent is greedy, there may be an element of pride. What if all the questions and photos of him with Andrew Luck makes him feel his value is much higher than the team who drafts him? There are lots of professional athletes who after being offered a large payday might feel responisable or compelled to take it in order to support and give back to family and friends who have very little. Appel may not have that sense of responisablity knowing there a good chance he'll be able to provide for himself and others no matter what.

Twins Twerp
02-23-2013, 11:51 AM
The point isn't that the money is not available from owners. The point is that it handcuffs the rest of your draft. Not only does it handcuff you, it sounds like it could be impossible to sign Appel. The Pirates shifted as much money around as they could and still could not pay the bonus demands without losing next years pick. I think most owners would ok with giving him his above slot bonus, but GM's would have to draft a bunch of college seniors with no upside to be able to sign him. Now the question will soon become, do you punt on the rest of your draft to sign this guy...

If you think Appel is a sure fire top of the rotation guy, maybe you do. How often do you actually get multiple major leaguers out of a draft? I think TR (or whomever signs off on draft day) would have to consider coming away from the draft with one top 25 prospect in all of the minors and no other players.