PDA

View Full Version : Zulgad: Dozier Has a Plan and A New Position



East Coast Twin
02-15-2013, 06:02 AM
Dozier dedicated himself to becoming a second baseman this offseason because he knows if he's going to make the Minnesota Twins roster this spring it almost certainly will be at that position. . . Twins general manager Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire both talked to Dozier after the 2012 season about wanting to see him play second and Dozier ran with the idea. This despite the fact he only played the occasional game at second in the minors and did not play there in college at Southern Mississippi.

Zulgad: After a tough year, Brian Dozier has a plan and a new position (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Zulgad_After_a_tough_year_Brian_Dozier_has_a_plan_ and_a_new_position021413)

Shane Wahl
02-15-2013, 06:57 AM
Well that's why they called him up in September to give him time at second base. Wait . . . that never happened.

TheLeviathan
02-15-2013, 07:04 AM
So....everybody's got plans eh? From the looks of his plan, he intends to use a lot of GardySpeak to show he "gets it"

diehardtwinsfan
02-15-2013, 10:43 AM
So....everybody's got plans eh? From the looks of his plan, he intends to use a lot of GardySpeak to show he "gets it"

He probably realizes from experience that hitting well certainly won't help him.

jay
02-15-2013, 10:47 AM
Sometimes I wonder how guys mentally handle the shift from SS to 2B. I think any infielder would stick at SS if it were up to them and it's a bit of an ego blow to be told you have to take the 'easier' spot. That said... I'm sure he's willing to do what it takes to stick on the MLB roster.

LaBombo
02-15-2013, 11:08 AM
So....everybody's got plans eh? From the looks of his plan, he intends to use a lot of GardySpeak to show he "gets it"

Yeah, more spinsanity, but less dreadful coming from a player, at least. That's been enough to keep players with less talent on the roster. In the absence of a worthwhile alternative, I'm all for Dozier going all Jedi mind trick on Gardy in order to hold his spot on the roster.

TheLeviathan
02-15-2013, 11:16 AM
He keeps talking like this and adds a few head-first slides....he may be on A Drew Butera Memorial Scholarship in no time!

LaBombo
02-15-2013, 11:27 AM
He keeps talking like this and adds a few head-first slides....he may be on A Drew Butera Memorial Scholarship in no time!

Yep, that and some huge turns around first on singles that are so not in any danger of being stretched into a double. We love fake hustle!

Willihammer
02-15-2013, 11:28 AM
I think that 10th inning game against the Rays left an undeservedly sour taste in everyone's mouth, mine included. But if you look at Dozier's performance as a whole, defensively, he really didn't do anything to lose the SS job (neither did Carroll). He was exceedlingly average by just about any metric you care to look at.

TheLeviathan
02-15-2013, 11:32 AM
I remember Dozier leading the league in errors for much of his stint....is that not correct? I remember a lot of routine plays bobbled.

Willihammer
02-15-2013, 11:46 AM
As far as scoring games, yes, he made a lot of errors compared to Florimon or Carroll. He also made played more innings than the other two combined. Overall, his fielding percentage was .964 to FLorimon's .965 and Carroll's .989. I maintain that Dozier's mistakes were just higher profile.

Chip Chipperson
02-15-2013, 12:21 PM
Well, now that he has a plan, I see this working out.


I wonder why the Twins always wait for someone to fail, go down to the minors and get another chance before they develop a cohesive plan for their success.

It's good we have it figured out now though.

LoganJones
02-15-2013, 12:25 PM
The issue with Dozier had more to do with the 'eye' test after his mistakes. He would make a big E, and then slouch. Florimon makes an E and goes after the next play with the same energy. Dozier also was called out for poor positioning on cut offs and such repeatedly.

ashburyjohn
02-15-2013, 12:48 PM
he may be on A Drew Butera Memorial Scholarship in no time!

Usually a memorial is for someone "no longer with us". Do you have advance insight about that, to foster some hope?

TheLeviathan
02-15-2013, 04:51 PM
No info....just the power of positive thinking?

LaBombo
02-16-2013, 03:08 PM
The issue with Dozier had more to do with the 'eye' test after his mistakes. He would make a big E, and then slouch. Florimon makes an E and goes after the next play with the same energy. Dozier also was called out for poor positioning on cut offs and such repeatedly.

After its decade of near-epic failure to either develop or acquire (with one quickly rectified exception) a quality middle infielder, I'm inclined to regard this organization's tests, eye or otherwise, of talent in that position with skepticism, if not outright scorn.

Seth Stohs
02-16-2013, 03:34 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

twinsnorth49
02-16-2013, 03:44 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

I for one haven't but it's more than just half a season to me. I believed he was rushed up here in desperation, in reality his numbers in AAA at the time of his call- up were nothing special and if we had some kind of half-assed performance from 1/2 of the MI he wouldn't have been up, which would have been fine.

I very much want Dozier to succeed, he is the only thing that resembles pop from among anyone in the MI, although I'd settle for him just getting on base at regular clip and making the plays he should in the field.

Dozier representing our only real hope just isn't based on a whole lot of evidence, that's all.

snepp
02-16-2013, 03:44 PM
I haven't given up on Dozier.

But I have all but given up on the team's ability to evaluate the middle infield.

LaBombo
02-16-2013, 03:47 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

No, more like salvaging a laugh from yet another grain of sand on the endless beach of sports BSOML articles. He's still got a realistic shot at sticking, although utility man seems more in his stars than regular.

jorgenswest
02-16-2013, 04:18 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

Sample size and the reliability of a partial season predicting the future is often misunderstood.

Dozier has an OPS of 603 after a sample of 340 plate appearances. That's not good, but not enough data to predict the future with any reliability.

If Dozier were later in his career, OPS would stabilize at 500 plate appearances. He has a few other factors working early in his career. His age still puts him in the growth phase. He limited time at the major league level still leaves room for growth.

For players like Dozier, the second 500 plate appearances will be the better indicator. The Twins invested those 1000 plate appearances in Valencia and Casilla without a pay off. Their patience with some others (like Bartlett, Hunter, Morneau, Gagne...) did pay off.

I don't know whether Dozier will be a solution at second base. I do know that his performance last year is not a reliable predictor of the future. The Twins are rebuilding. They should be investing plate appearances into players who can be part of the future solution. The decision the coaching and front office staff needs to make is whether the talent they have seen in Dozier merits the investment.

ashburyjohn
02-16-2013, 04:27 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season?

I went back and re-read the posts in this thread, and didn't see anything quite like *that*. Some pointed criticism, that could be taken as constructive if Brian can eliminate the mistakes. No one especially had "given up" on Dozier, certainly not everyone. I get the feeling that you're kind of bummed out about the whole tone on the board, and if I've contributed any to that, I'm sorry, my brother. (My bit of snark was directed toward Butera and/or carrying 3 catchers, take your pick.)

ThePuck
02-16-2013, 04:54 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

Not me...if given one spot to stay at to play regularly, I think he'll be a good MLB player. Problem is, what are the odds that happens under Gardy?

johnnydakota
02-16-2013, 05:06 PM
So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

Personally , Dozier is the only one of the 4 who could be anything useful in 2015 , asa for Brian making more errors then Florimon (with out looking it up ) i believe if you compare to the same number of games played they are within 1 or 2 errors, but Brian is a much better hitter and always will be , nothing in Florimons past suggests he will ever be any thing more then average at his best , while Dozier could exceede and eclispe any thing florimon hope to obtain hittting wise

TheLeviathan
02-16-2013, 05:06 PM
I certainly haven't given up on Dozier, but I don't see why we have to pretend he played well last year. He was pretty brutal in the field and at the plate. If he's part of this team's future, it wasn't because he was impressive during his major league stint last year. I hope he gets another good, long look this year.

drjim
02-16-2013, 05:09 PM
Not me...if given one spot to stay at to play regularly, I think he'll be a good MLB player. Problem is, what are the odds that happens under Gardy?

The same as any other manager. I never understand posts like this. Is it Gardy's fault that he barely hit and struggled with routine plays? I guarantee Gardy would love him to come up and seize a middle infield position but should he have a lower threshold than any other major league manager?

drjim
02-16-2013, 05:10 PM
I certainly haven't given up on Dozier, but I don't see why we have to pretend he played well last year. He was pretty brutal in the field and at the plate. If he's part of this team's future, it wasn't because he was impressive during his major league stint last year. I hope he gets another good, long look this year.

He is a marginal major league regular. It is not uncommon to struggle the first go round, the key is the adjustments he makes this offseason. It might help that he is at an easier position.

johnnydakota
02-16-2013, 05:11 PM
I certainly haven't given up on Dozier, but I don't see why we have to pretend he played well last year. He was pretty brutal in the field and at the plate. If he's part of this team's future, it wasn't because he was impressive during his major league stint last year. I hope he gets another good, long look this year.

And Florimon gives you more confedence in his ability? .219 compared to ? .236? im guessing since florimon was Ryans pickup , he is being spoon fed shortstop to appease Terry

johnnydakota
02-16-2013, 05:22 PM
The same as any other manager. I never understand posts like this. Is it Gardy's fault that he barely hit and struggled with routine plays? I guarantee Gardy would love him to come up and seize a middle infield position but should he have a lower threshold than any other major league manager?

Im guessing he is refering to Rons urnning to have multipul positions per player and continued musical position game he plays .

ThePuck
02-16-2013, 05:30 PM
We had, what, 18 or 19 different lineups in the first 20 games last year...and people were fairly healthy at that point. Wasn't out of necessity...wasn't because people were tired and needed a rest...

drjim
02-16-2013, 05:37 PM
Im guessing he is refering to Rons urnning to have multipul positions per player and continued musical position game he plays .

To which I would respond how many times in the Gardy's tenure did he have players good enough to play every day in the infield? And during those times did he move them around constantly?

stringer bell
02-16-2013, 05:56 PM
To which I would respond how many times in the Gardy's tenure did he have players good enough to play every day in the infield? And during those times did he move them around constantly?When Hudson and Hardy were healthy, they played. That is the last time, and one of the few times when Gardy had big league regulars at second and short. Dozier should develop into a much better hitter than Florimon or Escobar. He has a moderate amount of power and will steal a few bases. Considering the lack of power at so many positions, Brian should be given the longest look as a middle infield starter. I was hoping that the team would give him another fair shot at shortstop. While he didn't play well defensively, I thought he showed enough hands, range and arm to be an adequate major league shortstop.

Oldgoat_MN
02-16-2013, 05:56 PM
Dozier in 2011 - .895 OPS in Fort Myers, .885 OPS in New Britain.
His only time in AAA was last year. 200 PA, .623 OPS. OK, that was a tough year.
Decent chance he can be very productive in MLB. I'd be amazed if they don't give him every opportunity.

TheLeviathan
02-16-2013, 10:19 PM
He is a marginal major league regular. It is not uncommon to struggle the first go round, the key is the adjustments he makes this offseason. It might help that he is at an easier position.

Yeah, that's fine and I'm not saying he can't do that. I'm just correcting the assertion some have made about Dozier that he was good defensively or offensively last year. He wasn't, he was pretty brutal. Just calling a spade a spade, not making any pronouncements about his future based on that.

Willihammer
02-16-2013, 10:40 PM
Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

TheLeviathan
02-16-2013, 11:02 PM
Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

Based on what? As just one example, if he had continued at the pace he established in his 83 games over the full season he would have led the entire league in errors at shortstop. What are you basing your assessment on?

The Wise One
02-16-2013, 11:09 PM
We had, what, 18 or 19 different lineups in the first 20 games last year...and people were fairly healthy at that point. Wasn't out of necessity...wasn't because people were tired and needed a rest...

3B was unsettled, Right still unsettled as well as the middle infield because Casilla played like Casilla. So what is your point?

Willihammer
02-17-2013, 12:09 AM
Based on what? As just one example, if he had continued at the pace he established in his 83 games over the full season he would have led the entire league in errors at shortstop. What are you basing your assessment on?

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

TheLeviathan
02-17-2013, 08:42 AM
He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

And his fielding percentage would've tied Castro's for worst in the league. Again, where is a stat that puts him at "neutral"?

snepp
02-17-2013, 09:20 AM
He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

I don't suppose having a putrid pitching staff that led the league in balls in play would have anything to do with that?

Willihammer
02-17-2013, 09:32 AM
And his fielding percentage would've tied Castro's for worst in the league. Again, where is a stat that puts him at "neutral"?
Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

TheLeviathan
02-17-2013, 09:41 AM
Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

You realize that pretty much all of these stats are best used over larger spans of data right? Even the loudest proponents of these systems acknowledge one season of data can be faulty and therefore the numbers are best used in a larger context. So you're quoting a half a season's worth of data using stats best employed within the context of multiple seasons.

Doesn't seem like a real sound argument to me. Fact is, the kid was committing a lot of errors, his defense was hardly neutral.

Willihammer
02-17-2013, 09:43 AM
I don't suppose having a putrid pitching staff that led the league in balls in play would have anything to do with that?

Yes, but we're talking about 1 extra ball hit into one of his "zones" per 9 innings, compared to the players who saw the least action. Scaling everything up to 1440 innings, and holding RZR constant at .796, Dozier would make 407 of 511 "in zone" plays, 30 less than the most efficient player Ian Desmond (according to RZR). I don't know what that equate to in terms of runs. Something like 8-12 maybe.

I bring it up because its disingenuous to look at errors without at least weighing them against plays made. Dozier may have the high error total because the PTC staff induces a lot of ground balls his way. Or, he just may be getting to balls that players don't often get to. The eye test tells me its the former but again, we're talking pretty small scale differences in terms of efficiency at converting these balls into outs.

Willihammer
02-17-2013, 09:52 AM
You realize that pretty much all of these stats are best used over larger spans of data right? Even the loudest proponents of these systems acknowledge one season of data can be faulty and therefore the numbers are best used in a larger context. So you're quoting a half a season's worth of data using stats best employed within the context of multiple seasons.

Doesn't seem like a real sound argument to me. Fact is, the kid was committing a lot of errors, his defense was hardly neutral.

RZR is a pretty straightforward metric. At least it provides some context to what plays he was or wasn't making, which fielding percentage doesn't try to do.

But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

TheLeviathan
02-17-2013, 10:07 AM
But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

You mean like when I said he would tie Castro for worst in the entire league?

Willihammer
02-17-2013, 10:19 AM
Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

TheLeviathan
02-17-2013, 10:54 AM
Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

Either way he wasnt very good. I hope he can play better though.

John Bonnes
02-17-2013, 01:42 PM
Either way he wasnt very good. I hope he can play better though.

I think he will. According to nearly everyone in the Twins organization, Dozier is a much better defender than we saw last year. Gardy's enthusiasm regarding Dozier prior to the year would seem to confirm that. (I can't imagine Gardy loving the kid if his defense wasn't solid.) It's one of the reasons I'm dubious about the Twins playing Dozier at 2B this spring. I'd rather he play SS in AAA than 2B in MLB.

snepp
02-17-2013, 01:55 PM
It's one of the reasons I'm dubious about the Twins playing Dozier at 2B this spring. I'd rather he play SS in AAA than 2B in MLB.

Have they soured on his ability to ever be an everyday shortstop? Or is it more a matter of their apparent love of Florimon's defense?

John Bonnes
02-17-2013, 02:04 PM
Have they soured on his ability to ever be an everyday shortstop? Or is it more a matter of their apparent love of Florimon's defense?

I don't know. I might go with option C: they're just so desperate to find solutions for their middle infield spots that they're jousting windmills.

snepp
02-17-2013, 02:28 PM
Or tilting windmills, for the medieval nerds among us.