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The Greatest Poster Alive
02-08-2013, 06:02 PM
So who do you guys think the Twins are targeting in the draft?

Despite being a Boras client, I'd love to see the Twins draft Appel if they get the chance. I think he could make a quick jump to the Majors, something this rotation could use.

jtrinaldi
02-08-2013, 06:29 PM
So who do you guys think the Twins are targeting in the draft?

Despite being a Boras client, I'd love to see the Twins draft Appel if they get the chance. I think he could make a quick jump to the Majors, something this rotation could use.
In this order
Manaea
Appel
Stanek
Frazier/Meadows/Trey Ball (toss up, both have similar ceilings)

I have seen Meadows/Frazier/Ball personally. I will hopefully be seeing Manaea at the MVC tourney in May. I will be shooting 3 games of baseball over a 3 day span with my brother, and hopefully he will be pitching in the day cap. Ball is the wildcard because he is above average as a pitcher as well as hitter/outfielder. I like Frazier more than Meadows. He has a much more fluent swing than Meadows and Ball.
I have photos of several of these guys in here
UA All American game | Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.418105374893526.82682.256164664420932&type=3)

gunnarthor
02-08-2013, 07:52 PM
It's pretty early but I agree with your opinion on Appel. I would be very happy if he fell to us at #4.

The Greatest Poster Alive
02-08-2013, 08:13 PM
Also, follow up question. Last year's draft seemed to be a very solid group of top end prospects, as well as quality depth. What is the early report on draft depth this year?

Twins Twerp
02-08-2013, 08:45 PM
Early reports are this is a done year again but there is still a whole season to play and alot can change.

maxisagod
02-08-2013, 09:31 PM
The Twins in the past, have favored guys who do well in the Cape Cod League. Manaea did excellent there, so I'm guessing their early scouting reports are high on the lefty. The Twins minors don't have a lot of strong Lefty starters either, might be there number one need right now. The Twins will probably go with BPA with their 1st round pick, BUT all things being equal, The Twins system is low on good catchers right now and one of the drafts strength is prep catchers. As the college season starts up, look for smoke coming from the Astros, Cubs, and Rockies. The Cubs wanting Almora was leaked pretty early last year, but The Astro wanting Correa wasn't known till Bud got to the podium.

Thrylos
02-08-2013, 09:34 PM
Too early to tell. Give it another 3 months :)

jtrinaldi
02-09-2013, 08:58 AM
Also, follow up question. Last year's draft seemed to be a very solid group of top end prospects, as well as quality depth. What is the early report on draft depth this year?
This year the tiers are as follows
Tier 1: Anyone of these 5 guys could be selected #1.
Manaea/Apple/Stanek (All 3 are pitchers that project as #2's)
Frazier/Meadows: Both are outfielders with High Ceilings, it is a toss up who is better.
Tier 2
Khris Bryant,Trey Ball,Austin Wilson,JP Crawford,Oscar Mercado,Mike Lorenzen/Colin Moran
Trey Ball is the wildcard, as he is just a good pitcher as he is hitter. Mercado and Crawford are Pure shortstops who project as big league caliber, to bat at the top of the order. Both of them should be gone by 20.
One guy to keep an eye on is Jan Hernandez, who has earned comparisons to Baez, but lacks consistency.

Overall, I think that the Twins will take a catcher in Round 2. They should have their choice between Ciuffo,Martinez,Navaretto (has a cannon), Denney ,Collins. The prep catchers is an interesting position this year, before the UA All American game, Collins was projected to be a top 10 pick, since then he has fallen off.
But don't get me wrong, this years draft is VERY WEAK. 2014 is looking pretty strong with the likes of Alex Jackson and Touki Toussant .

johnnydakota
02-09-2013, 09:26 AM
So if this is a weak draft and next years is stronger, would it make sense to make a low ball offer to our 1 pick and next year recieve the 5th pick? add in a qualifing off to justin and we end up with 3 picks in the first 35 in 2014?

If not then i agree Appel or Manaea as our 1st pick , and then a prep catcher,as there is a handful who project very high ,add in that they will be ready for the majors about the time Mauers contract is up...

Willihammer
02-09-2013, 09:28 AM
The problem with Appel is he might improve the team before 2015

jtrinaldi
02-09-2013, 09:39 AM
So if this is a weak draft and next years is stronger, would it make sense to make a low ball offer to our 1 pick and next year recieve the 5th pick? add in a qualifing off to justin and we end up with 3 picks in the first 35 in 2014?

If not then i agree Appel or Manaea as our 1st pick , and then a prep catcher,as there is a handful who project very high ,add in that they will be ready for the majors about the time Mauers contract is up...
This draft is much weaker than last year. Next years draft is much improved. After the top 5 of this year, there is a HUGE drop off, unless Ball establishes whether he is a pitcher or a hitter. The top 5 guys are likely to be drafted within the top 5, barring injury. If I were the Twins, I would not reach at all this year (for the prime SS like Mercado or Crawford) and take the BPA.

Twins Twerp
02-09-2013, 09:39 AM
The problem with Appel is he might improve the team before 2015

Talk about optimistic...IF he falls to us and IF he flies through the system he MIGHT improve the team before 2015. YIKES

Jeremy Nygaard
02-09-2013, 09:49 AM
I'll have a post up sometime this weekend that addresses some of these questions. Sorry its only a teaser, but it will be worth it to check back, I promise.

gunnarthor
02-09-2013, 10:01 AM
So if this is a weak draft and next years is stronger, would it make sense to make a low ball offer to our 1 pick and next year recieve the 5th pick? add in a qualifing off to justin and we end up with 3 picks in the first 35 in 2014?

If not then i agree Appel or Manaea as our 1st pick , and then a prep catcher,as there is a handful who project very high ,add in that they will be ready for the majors about the time Mauers contract is up...

A lost pick is pretty costly. Even if we get the #5 pick next year, the team loses a year of player development waiting for that pick. Plus, if we don't sign the #4 pick, we lose that money in our draft slot, so the Twins would spend 4.8m (or so) less this year which could affect later picks. Buxton signed for 200,000 under slot and I believe the Twins spread that around for later picks. There would be no guarantee that the Pohlad's would spend all of a draft pool that included two top 5 picks (and could be over 15m).

I also think it's very unlikely that the Twins get a pick out of Morneau. I think it's far more likely that he gets traded at the deadline. If we end up holding on to him and he has a good season, I could see us offering him arbitration but I think he'd probably take it. Not a lot of teams would want to pony up that kind of deal with his injury history and lose a pick. Or, with our luck, the Yanks would sign him and another type A free agent and we'd get stuck with their 2nd round pick instead.

Additionally, it is way too early to worry about the depth of this (or next years) draft class. We'll draft high in both. At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent. Zimmer really improved his draft stock as did guys like Correia and Berrios in Puerto Rico. Max Fried kept climbing til draft day. And one of the consensus top picks was Devon Marrero who dropped to the Red Sox at #24 (and struggled a bit in low A).

johnnydakota
02-09-2013, 10:08 AM
A lost pick is pretty costly. Even if we get the #5 pick next year, the team loses a year of player development waiting for that pick. Plus, if we don't sign the #4 pick, we lose that money in our draft slot, so the Twins would spend 4.8m (or so) less this year which could affect later picks. Buxton signed for 200,000 under slot and I believe the Twins spread that around for later picks. There would be no guarantee that the Pohlad's would spend all of a draft pool that included two top 5 picks (and could be over 15m).

I also think it's very unlikely that the Twins get a pick out of Morneau. I think it's far more likely that he gets traded at the deadline. If we end up holding on to him and he has a good season, I could see us offering him arbitration but I think he'd probably take it. Not a lot of teams would want to pony up that kind of deal with his injury history and lose a pick. Or, with our luck, the Yanks would sign him and another type A free agent and we'd get stuck with their 2nd round pick instead.

Additionally, it is way too early to worry about the depth of this (or next years) draft class. We'll draft high in both. At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent. Zimmer really improved his draft stock as did guys like Correia and Berrios in Puerto Rico. Max Fried kept climbing til draft day. And one of the consensus top picks was Devon Marrero who dropped to the Red Sox at #24 (and struggled a bit in low A).

agreeing on most of it,but as for arbitration justin is not eligible or bound to, i always like to think out side the box even if i return to inside the lines,with the number 4 pick we should acquire a very decent player

Kwak
02-09-2013, 10:09 AM
Next year's draft? Don't worry folks--the Twins will be selecting early. The question is: will they be selecting the best player for the team?

jtrinaldi
02-09-2013, 10:15 AM
A lost pick is pretty costly. Even if we get the #5 pick next year, the team loses a year of player development waiting for that pick. Plus, if we don't sign the #4 pick, we lose that money in our draft slot, so the Twins would spend 4.8m (or so) less this year which could affect later picks. Buxton signed for 200,000 under slot and I believe the Twins spread that around for later picks. There would be no guarantee that the Pohlad's would spend all of a draft pool that included two top 5 picks (and could be over 15m).

I also think it's very unlikely that the Twins get a pick out of Morneau. I think it's far more likely that he gets traded at the deadline. If we end up holding on to him and he has a good season, I could see us offering him arbitration but I think he'd probably take it. Not a lot of teams would want to pony up that kind of deal with his injury history and lose a pick. Or, with our luck, the Yanks would sign him and another type A free agent and we'd get stuck with their 2nd round pick instead.

Additionally, it is way too early to worry about the depth of this (or next years) draft class. We'll draft high in both. At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent. Zimmer really improved his draft stock as did guys like Correia and Berrios in Puerto Rico. Max Fried kept climbing til draft day. And one of the consensus top picks was Devon Marrero who dropped to the Red Sox at #24 (and struggled a bit in low A).
Buxton was never as low as 20. Buxton was always top 5 with Giolito (before injury),Appel, and Zunino. Zimmer is the one who came out of the blue, and Devin Marrero dropped after a horrid start to the season.

gunnarthor
02-09-2013, 10:57 AM
Buxton was never as low as 20. Buxton was always top 5 with Giolito (before injury),Appel, and Zunino. Zimmer is the one who came out of the blue, and Devin Marrero dropped after a horrid start to the season.

You might be right. BA had him in there top four as early as Aug 2011. (BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Chat: Jim Callis Chat: Aug. 31 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2612267.html)) A bleacher report had him a bit lower. 2012 MLB Draft: Deven Marrero, Kevin Gausman and 25 Names You Need To Know | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/928755-2012-mlb-draft-deven-marrero-kevin-gausman-and-25-names-you-need-to-know/page/24) (Buxton being a top 15 pick isn't out of the realm of possibility)

Anyhow, the point was that the draft will change a lot over the next few months as some players skyrocket and others slip.

jtrinaldi
02-09-2013, 12:35 PM
You might be right. BA had him in there top four as early as Aug 2011. (BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Chat: Jim Callis Chat: Aug. 31 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2612267.html)) A bleacher report had him a bit lower. 2012 MLB Draft: Deven Marrero, Kevin Gausman and 25 Names You Need To Know | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/928755-2012-mlb-draft-deven-marrero-kevin-gausman-and-25-names-you-need-to-know/page/24) (Buxton being a top 15 pick isn't out of the realm of possibility)

Anyhow, the point was that the draft will change a lot over the next few months as some players skyrocket and others slip.
I am just confused why you are bringing August up. This is your quote . "This point last year", is not August.

At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent.

gunnarthor
02-09-2013, 03:59 PM
I am just confused why you are bringing August up. This is your quote . "This point last year", is not August.

Guess I wasn't quite as literal as my words

Vervehound
02-09-2013, 07:31 PM
i'm thinking manaea is the best player and the guy that stands out to the twins the most but i have a hard time seeing him get past the cubs, who are probably even more pitching starved then we are. there will be a second tier of pitchers that emerge - last year it was gausman and zimmer - and this year a couple of guys to keep an eye on are karsten whitson and dillon overton, along with jonathan crawford. if the twins can't justify a college arm, an up-the-midlle prep guy like jp crawford or the catcher from oklahoma could sway them.

Ultima Ratio
02-09-2013, 11:22 PM
If Appel fell to #4, would he demand over slot to sign him, again?

Joe
02-09-2013, 11:32 PM
i'm thinking manaea is the best player and the guy that stands out to the twins the most but i have a hard time seeing him get past the cubs, who are probably even more pitching starved then we are. there will be a second tier of pitchers that emerge - last year it was gausman and zimmer - and this year a couple of guys to keep an eye on are karsten whitson and dillon overton, along with jonathan crawford. if the twins can't justify a college arm, an up-the-midlle prep guy like jp crawford or the catcher from oklahoma could sway them.

I think Meadows and JP Crawford are going to be the consensus 1&2 draft day.

nfisch22
02-09-2013, 11:55 PM
If you're the Twins you hope one of the top pitchers either Manaea, Stanek or Appel fall to you. If that doesn't work I'd be fine with Frazier, Meadows or even Kohl Stewart who could be an intriguing prospect who plays multiple positions including pitcher.

Vervehound
02-10-2013, 08:06 AM
I think Meadows and JP Crawford are going to be the consensus 1&2 draft day.

possibly. but only if manaea regresses. appel is the wildcard and i think don't think stanek is as good as others do. i think one of whitson/overton/wahl will go in the top few picks as well. crawford would definitely be on my shortlist and you know the twins will be following hard this spring.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-10-2013, 08:36 AM
Some teams already have Crawford on their board as an OF. If the Twins share that belief, he won't go #4. If he can convince a team - any team - that he can stick at SS, then we're having a different discussion. He'll have an interesting spring, to be sure

jtrinaldi
02-10-2013, 09:03 AM
If you're the Twins you hope one of the top pitchers either Manaea, Stanek or Appel fall to you. If that doesn't work I'd be fine with Frazier, Meadows or even Kohl Stewart who could be an intriguing prospect who plays multiple positions including pitcher.
I agree with pretty much all of this other than Stewart. Steweart is out until April with a shoulder injury, and he has a very strong commitment.


He is not likely to go top 5, so the Twins won't be looking at him seriously anyways.


Some teams already have Crawford on their board as an OF. If the Twins share that belief, he won't go #4. If he can convince a team - any team - that he can stick at SS, then we're having a different discussion. He'll have an interesting spring, to be sure
I just want to ask, where you read anything about him ending up in Centerfield, or if that is just your opinion?

Here is a quote from the ESPN Draft blog about his potential as a SS

Crawford is similar to Mercado but has a more projectable frame with more current strength and bats left-handed. Crawford isn't as polished at the plate but brings above-average speed, defense and arm strength to the table in an enticing package that can stick at shortstop long-term. Crawford loads his hands higher and deeper and will bar out at times, causing contact and timing issues but has a chance to surpass Mercado in time.

dharmacog
02-10-2013, 10:19 AM
I would have no problem if the Twins selected Appel with their top pick. I see a lot of draftniks this year are not very high on him, but he's always in the discussion of top prospects and clearly has nice tools. It appears the Twins would love to add a top college arm and most draft sites list 3 top guys. Of course the Twins are picking at #4, so no guarantee to get any of these. Right now my feeling is: 1-Manaea, 2-Stanek, and 3-Appel. If all three are gone my next guy is the HS outfielder Frazier. I know the system is well stocked with outfielders, but I think you go with best player and right now that's how I see it. Still, we have to let the spring play out and I'm sure the rankings will change. Someone will have an injury, regress, or take a big leap forward. Maybe a top shortstop or catcher will enter the conversation which would be nice. I'm certainly looking forward to draft day as always, especially with another high pick this year (unfortunately due to another difficult season). It should be fun!

Physics Guy
02-10-2013, 11:46 AM
They should take BPA: best PITCHER available. After that they need to look at MI and C.

diehardtwinsfan
02-10-2013, 12:31 PM
someone needs to be fired if the Twins take an outfielder with that pick. None of the OFers in this draft can clearly separate themselves from the others. The Twins should be taking a pitcher, middle infielder, or catcher, with an emphasis on the first two.

jtrinaldi
02-10-2013, 12:34 PM
someone needs to be fired if the Twins take an outfielder with that pick. None of the OFers in this draft can clearly separate themselves from the others. The Twins should be taking a pitcher, middle infielder, or catcher, with an emphasis on the first two.
The top 5 is pretty much set, unless Ball establishes himself, instead of entering the draft as either a dual sport Athlete. The outfielders you are talking about are Meadows and Frazier, who both have a great ceiling. Just because they cannot separate themselves from one another does not mean that they are not good.
The Twins second pick is likely where they can get there catcher.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-10-2013, 12:54 PM
I just want to ask, where you read anything about him ending up in Centerfield, or if that is just your opinion?

Personally, I think he'll be given every chance to stay at SS by the team that drafts him. That's my opinion. Between different sites and different conversations, people are still questioning it. When there are questions already - only 4 projected SS came were prep draftees - it's a legitimate question.


The top 5 is pretty much set

I disagree. Perfect Game and Baseball America don't even share the Top 5 prospects. PG has Meadows #3 in his high school class and Baseball America has him #3 overall, as an example.

jtrinaldi
02-10-2013, 01:32 PM
Personally, I think he'll be given every chance to stay at SS by the team that drafts him. That's my opinion. Between different sites and different conversations, people are still questioning it. When there are questions already - only 4 projected SS came were prep draftees - it's a legitimate question.



I disagree. Perfect Game and Baseball America don't even share the Top 5 prospects. PG has Meadows #3 in his high school class and Baseball America has him #3 overall, as an example.

Ah, I see, you have never actually seen JP play, and forming your opinion just to start conversation.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-10-2013, 01:39 PM
Ah, I see, you have never actually seen JP play, and forming your opinion just to start conversation.

EDIT: While I can be snarky, I'm not going to be...

Yes, I have seen him play.

I don't know if Crawford will stick at SS or not.

I'm simply trying to present the facts: Not everyone is convinced the he can stick at SS.

maxisagod
02-10-2013, 02:01 PM
If Appel fell to #4, would he demand over slot to sign him, again?

Assuming he has a simular season to last year with no new injury concerns, then yes he will. Boras' job is to get the most money for his clients. Boras will start negotiations by say Appel should have gone 1-1 and should get paid like he's the 1st overall draft pick. He'll than wait it out watching how the Twins spend their money on their other picks ( if I remember correctly, because Appel is a college senior he's signing deadline might be later than the other players) and then Boras will make a "compromise" the amount above slot the team can spend before they loss a draft pick, but still above the amount the team gets fined for going past team budjet. All the while, talking about Appel wiliness to go to Independent ball or excitement about the prospect of playing in Japan. So no, he won't come cheap. On the other hand if Appel is injured at some point or has a down year, than he would sign for slot. Both sides will have leverage, it how they are willing to use it which will determine the outcome and amount.

diehardtwinsfan
02-11-2013, 10:48 AM
If he gets injured, he won't go high if he wants slot... I think most would be fine giving appel whatever is left of the cap space available, but if that was the case, he should have signed this year. The extra 2M or whatever it was is not nearly worth the year of FA he lost.

70charger
02-11-2013, 06:02 PM
I just don't see Appel going over slot. I think he has to have been chastened by last year's experience (and if not, he's way too stupid to be at Stanford), and he also has to realize that there's nowhere else to go if doesn't sign. He has to be aware of the indy ball horror stories. He has to realize that his failure to get paid last year has already put a dent in his potential career earnings. He has to know that teams are already looking at him warily. I expect a more pliant Appel this time around.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-11-2013, 06:27 PM
I really think the Twins - and many other teams - will use the approach the Astros used last year. They will have a specific amount that they are willing to spend and shop it to advisers. If they can't get an assurance that the player will sign for X amount of dollars, they'll take someone they know that will.

In the past, if you don't sign a pick, you get a comp pick the next year and really that's all. Now, you get the comp pick, but you lose the money in the spending pool which you're seeing is becoming a very, very big deal. It's too big of a risk to not be able to sign a guy.

The Twins pick will be worth $4.5m. They will be able to spend about $4.7m on that pick w/o penalty (independent of the other picks). If its the day of the draft, I get Boras on the phone and say, "Scott, we like Appel and we're willing to go up to $4.7m for him. If we don't have a verbal agreement by the time we hang up the phone, we'll look elsewhere." I'd also do that with a half-dozen other guys, adjusting the offer, of course.

3rd Inning Stretch
02-14-2013, 08:30 AM
Im sure Jeremy will touch on this in his writeup (If not, you're welcome for the idea), but they have to go best player available. Manaea may end up being the best in this draft, but I think he will be gone before we pick. Stanek (if I remember correctly) isnt the hardest thrower (92-93), and that goes away from what we've been doing with pitchers. I think all the concerns about Appel (arm wear throwing 150 pitches a game, Boras, etc) I hope they pass on him if he's there. That leaves the two GA outfielders...I am actually hoping one of them falls to us, with no preference at this point between Meadows and Frazier. Despite the OF prospects we have now, I think they have the highest ceilings of anyone in the draft and that is the sort of thing we should be looking for now...none of the SPs being discussed are thought of as true #1 starters, which should be the potential for a pitcher taken #4 overall. Having too much top end talent is not an issue...and they should go for that talent, even if it's at a perceived position of strength with the current minor league crop.

Brock Beauchamp
02-14-2013, 08:50 AM
I think they should target that hard-throwing high schooler whose season hasn't started yet.

drjim
02-14-2013, 09:28 AM
I would be be all over Appel if he fell. Seems like they should end up with a college arm unless someone really emerges.

gunnarthor
02-14-2013, 11:37 AM
Karsten Whitson injured his shoulder (2013 MLB Draft: Florida's Karsten Whitson Out With Shoulder Trouble - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/14/3956550/2013-mlb-draft-karsten-whitson-shoulder-trouble)) He could have been a top 10 pick but now I wonder how much he might slide. Probably not to 42 but it would be nice if the Twins could get another solid pick with their second choice.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-15-2013, 09:44 PM
Karsten Whitson injured his shoulder (2013 MLB Draft: Florida's Karsten Whitson Out With Shoulder Trouble - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/14/3956550/2013-mlb-draft-karsten-whitson-shoulder-trouble)) He could have been a top 10 pick but now I wonder how much he might slide. Probably not to 42 but it would be nice if the Twins could get another solid pick with their second choice.

He's out for the year. I would guess he'll take a medical redshirt this year and try to come back and improve his draft stock for the 2014 draft.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-15-2013, 09:52 PM
Mark Appel made his season debut against Rice today. 5 IP, 5 R (2 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K, WP. Pretty nondescript.

Sean Manaea lost to IPFW. 4+ IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Not nearly as dominant as his Cape Cod League Summer.

Ryne Stanek beat W. Illinois. 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, BB, 4 K.

Taking it on the chin was projected #1 in 2014, NC State LP Carlos Rodon. 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, BB, 8 K... the biggest news was that, after only allowing 2 HRs his entire freshman year, and not losing a game since his junior year of high school, he gives up 3 HR and takes a loss in his 2013 debut.

nicksaviking
02-15-2013, 10:59 PM
Nice update. I guess another GA high school outfielder it is. Kidding of course. This will be a fun race to track and at this point I'd still be happy with Appel, but I can't say I wouldn't be smiling on the inside if he falters big time this year and his stock plummets. Finding himself and Boras in a position where he would actually have to prove himself at the MLB level before he gets a big payday would be fitting after stink they put up last year.

diehardtwinsfan
02-19-2013, 04:31 PM
I'd say it's a bit too soon to be start tracking. Come back in 3 months and we should have a real good idea who is going where.

cmb0252
02-22-2013, 12:09 PM
Matt garrioch over at minorleagueball posted his top 100 list today. Good read for people trying to get familiar with the names. Here is the link:http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/22/4013450/2013-mlb-draft-top-100-draft-prospects

Also, I disagree diehardtwinsfan, its never too early to talk about the draft! With how bad the twins are going to be this year it is really the only thing some of us have to look forward to. Well, that and the development of our young players.