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View Full Version : Twins - # of wins in 2013



glunn
02-08-2013, 01:31 AM
Assuming no major acquisitions, how many wins do you think that the Twins will have this season?

Note that all votes will be public, so we can see in October who was correct.

Brandon
02-08-2013, 07:33 AM
I am going with 72-76 wins this season.

Gernzy
02-08-2013, 07:34 AM
I think we have a chance at finishing close to .500 We'll see how the rotation does. That will be the biggest factor as we all know.

Brock Beauchamp
02-08-2013, 08:26 AM
Probably should have broken that up into more choices. Given the current roster, I think the 70-79 win option is the obvious choice (though they'll probably be on the low side of that). It will require another complete implosion of the rotation (or a complete failure for the team to stay healthy... again) to not surpass last year's 66 win total, despite what some of the whiners -- I mean -- those of the "negative persuasion" on this forum seem to believe so staunchly.

Top Gun
02-08-2013, 08:27 AM
This time of year I always have high hopes.

gunnarthor
02-08-2013, 08:34 AM
I think it'll be a tale of two halves. I think over the first half or so we'll be surprisingly competitive. Something like 38-41 and 6 GB sitting in third place. But then Ryan will trade Willingham, Morneau and maybe even Perkins and the second half will be pretty bad. 32-51 and we'll finish 70-92 and have the 4th worst record again. On the positive side, we end the season with an OF of Benson/Hicks/Arcia and all three look promising for 2014. (And our minor leaguers continue to develop).

beckmt
02-08-2013, 08:39 AM
I am thinking about 72. We should be competitive against most teams, will struggle against like the Tampa Bay and others with very good pitching staffs.

James
02-08-2013, 10:34 AM
I am thinking low 70's. I'm hoping to be shocked an we end up in the .500 range, but who knows.

zenser
02-08-2013, 11:34 AM
I have a hard time thinking of a number greater than 70. Mauer and Morneau were both pretty healthy last year and Willingham had a career year, even Doumit had a career year, plus the career month the Plouffe had. I would love for Mauer, Morneau, and Plouffe to stay healthy and hit their potential. I would love to Willingham to match his year last year. Will Hicks be able to contribute? Will Dozier bounce back? Will Parmalee hit when he is in the lineup everyday? Will Drew Butera hit over .185? That is a lot of questions on the offense and I didn't even get into the lack of quality starting pitching.

chagen
02-08-2013, 11:37 AM
I'm thinking 72-74 wins. Pitching should be better can't get much worse.

PseudoSABR
02-08-2013, 11:39 AM
77 wins. This is what optimism looks like.

mcrow
02-08-2013, 11:47 AM
Low 70's , IMO, unless we have some freakish over achieving from a bunch of guys.

Boom Boom
02-08-2013, 11:55 AM
If we follow the pattern of the last two seasons, we go from 63 to 66 to 69.

I don't think they get to 70 wins, for a few reasons - rotation is still lacking depth. Diamond is due for regression. Pelfrey is a big question mark. I expect Tommy John surgery for somebody important. Potential trades of Morneau and Willingham.

Kwak
02-08-2013, 12:09 PM
Pretty much the same as last year. Everybody else is improving too!--especially within the division. I would expect the opponents to pitch-around Willingham more than last year in game situations and that Morneau will see every LHP the opponents have by the 6th inning.

mike wants wins
02-08-2013, 12:14 PM
72 wins is my current prediction. I think 75 is reasonable for people to predict, above that seems more like hope than math to me.

ashburyjohn
02-08-2013, 12:23 PM
I'm putting my over-under at 74 wins.

scottz
02-08-2013, 12:44 PM
I'm putting my over-under at 74 wins.

i went with 70-79, but i'd take the under on that all day long.

ashburyjohn
02-08-2013, 12:55 PM
i went with 70-79, but i'd take the under on that all day long.

Yeah, I'm guilty of my share of snark on this forum, but deep down I'm a starry-eyed optimist.

SpiritofVodkaDave
02-08-2013, 01:01 PM
92-70. I want him to ravage me sexually.

Riverbrian
02-08-2013, 01:03 PM
Ron Gardenhire needs 68 wins to reach 1,000 for his career. If he doesn't reach 68 this year. He won't be around to make it in 2014.

Gardy will make it this year... Plus 10... 78 is my guess.

LoganJones
02-08-2013, 01:36 PM
I voted 70-79,but I have a feeling that if they get off to a good start, that they will be there at the end, because there will be some trades. The poll said as constructed.

glunn
02-08-2013, 01:55 PM
I set this up so that people's votes would be displayed, but somehow that feature does not seem to be working. Thanks to all who voted and posted, and I hope that the high numbers are rewarded.

Thrylos
02-08-2013, 02:00 PM
76 to 86.
(but really, I'd love to see the SPs in ST and who made the cut in the OF and IF before I can have a solid guess :) )

Seth Stohs
02-08-2013, 02:15 PM
I said on a radio show earlier this week that 75 wins would be a good goal. In my mind ,that would be a pretty solid showing for this team. I'd expect 68-72.

mike wants wins
02-08-2013, 02:16 PM
As always, Seth and I are in total agreement.................

Willihammer
02-08-2013, 02:25 PM
I voted 70-79 because it is in the middle of 50 and 100

IdahoPilgrim
02-08-2013, 02:29 PM
I choose to be optimistic - 77.

mikecgrimes
02-08-2013, 04:29 PM
If Gibson Mauer and the CF sport produce more then expected we should be competitive and at this point of the year I can't worry about anything else. 80-89 possible World Series champions.

powrwrap
02-08-2013, 04:44 PM
I think they make it to 80, probably on the last day of the season.

Danchat
02-08-2013, 04:56 PM
Call me pessimistic, but with most teams getting better this offseason, the Twins have gone backwards. I'm glad we're building for 2015. But I think we will bomb big again a 3rd year in a row. 58 wins. Yes, that's 58-104. We are getting too optimistic, exactly like we did last year.

Seth Stohs
02-08-2013, 05:01 PM
As always, Seth and I are in total agreement.................

As always... ha! :)

70charger
02-08-2013, 05:04 PM
I'm going with 75.

TheLeviathan
02-08-2013, 05:24 PM
I love that all the people trumpeting optimism are still picking the team to be probably 15-17 wins from the playoffs......just like the supposedly horrible, puppy-punching pessimists.

Heh.

70charger
02-08-2013, 06:25 PM
I love that all the people trumpeting optimism are still picking the team to be probably 15-17 wins from the playoffs......just like the supposedly horrible, puppy-punching pessimists.

Heh.

The difference between realists (you call them "optimists") and you is that we can see both downside and *gasp* upside. For you, if the Twins arent losing, the world is falling apart.

Feel free to post one of your tedious manifestos in response, but you should also consider doing something more productive. Like punching puppies.

glunn
02-08-2013, 06:46 PM
Please put me down for 69. And I feel that is somewhat optimistic considering the available starters. On the other hand, if everything comes together perfectly, I would love to see 85+ wins.

glunn
02-08-2013, 06:47 PM
76 to 86.
(but really, I'd love to see the SPs in ST and who made the cut in the OF and IF before I can have a solid guess :) )

I plan to post another poll after ST so we can all guess again.

ashburyjohn
02-08-2013, 07:26 PM
I plan to post another poll after ST so we can all guess again.

I ain't no second guesser.

(Well, truth be told, I am.)

drjim
02-08-2013, 08:07 PM
74 range.

The Greatest Poster Alive
02-08-2013, 08:15 PM
Vance Worley = Cy Young
Mauer = MVP
Morneau =MV2
Willinghammer = MV3
Hicks = ROY

92 Wins

Super Bowl Homeboy.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-08-2013, 08:18 PM
Probably should have broken that up into more choices. Given the current roster, I think the 70-79 win option is the obvious choice (though they'll probably be on the low side of that). It will require another complete implosion of the rotation (or a complete failure for the team to stay healthy... again) to not surpass last year's 66 win total, despite what some of the whiners -- I mean -- those of the "negative persuasion" on this forum seem to believe so staunchly.

I agree with this. The ranges are too large. My prediction is 71-91

TheLeviathan
02-08-2013, 09:14 PM
The difference between realists (you call them "optimists") and you is that we can see both downside and *gasp* upside. For you, if the Twins arent losing, the world is falling apart. .

Heh. No manifesto needed. Your post is easily one of the dumbest things I've read in a long time. Completely baseless and amusingly pathetic. But hey, take whatever ground you need. From what I can see, we voted for the same thing. Pretty meaningless distinction you're drawing when we expect the same results.

twinsnorth49
02-08-2013, 09:23 PM
The difference between realists (you call them "optimists") and you is that we can see both downside and *gasp* upside. For you, if the Twins arent losing, the world is falling apart.

Feel free to post one of your tedious manifestos in response, but you should also consider doing something more productive. Like punching puppies.


Heh. No manifesto needed. Your post is easily one of the dumbest things I've read in a long time. Completely baseless and amusingly pathetic. But hey, take whatever ground you need. From what I can see, we voted for the same thing. Pretty meaningless distinction you're drawing when we expect the same results.

http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sFi_slapfight.gif

You guys are entertaining if nothing else.

spideyo
02-09-2013, 07:09 PM
I'll be bold and go with 84-78.

While we have a lot of huge question marks, nobody in our division made huge splashy moves to make them an obvious forerunner. Detroit is once again going to be hoping the other pitchers can catch up to Valverde, and depending on big sluggers with suspect defense. Cleveland has just as much turnover as we have, plus a new manager. Chicago hasn't changed much, except to ditch Pierzynski's bat. The Royals...well, who the hell knows with KC.

Under Gardenhire, we typically have played well against NL teams and that momentum seems to carry forward into the next few series. Spreading out NL matchups through out the year is probably going to be to our benefit.

But like everyone else said, the predictions could be incredibly different in 30-45 days.

ThePuck
02-09-2013, 08:15 PM
I'll be bold and go with 84-78.

While we have a lot of huge question marks, nobody in our division made huge splashy moves to make them an obvious forerunner. Detroit is once again going to be hoping the other pitchers can catch up to Valverde, and depending on big sluggers with suspect defense. Cleveland has just as much turnover as we have, plus a new manager. Chicago hasn't changed much, except to ditch Pierzynski's bat. The Royals...well, who the hell knows with KC.

Under Gardenhire, we typically have played well against NL teams and that momentum seems to carry forward into the next few series. Spreading out NL matchups through out the year is probably going to be to our benefit.

But like everyone else said, the predictions could be incredibly different in 30-45 days.

You don't think Detroit is the clear and obvious forerunner? What with having the best team last year, having that great rotation for a full year this year, while getting VMart back and getting Hunter? Your breakdown of what the other teams in the division did is pretty, um, inaccurate.

Not sure how you can expect our team, the worst in the AL the last two seasons, to somehow improve by almost 20 games after downgrading the offense and defense and filling the rotation with question marks.

spideyo
02-09-2013, 10:44 PM
You don't think Detroit is the clear and obvious forerunner? What with having the best team last year, having that great rotation for a full year this year, while getting VMart back and getting Hunter? Your breakdown of what the other teams in the division did is pretty, um, inaccurate.

Not sure how you can expect our team, the worst in the AL the last two seasons, to somehow improve by almost 20 games after downgrading the offense and defense and filling the rotation with question marks.

Hey, this is all a shot in the dark at this point. It'll be a couple weeks before we even really have a clue as far as what our 25 man rosters is going to look like.

I don't honestly think that we've taken as far a step back offensively as some people think. I don't think anyone will miss Casilla offensively. I'm sure there are plenty of folks who would bank on Revere taking a step back offensively this year. The major loss is Span, and he hasn't actually been a model of health the last few years, nor has he returned to the excellent numbers he had in the Dome. On the flip side, Plouffe has has time to mature and heal his thumb, Willingham is coming off a career year, and Mourneau is another year removed from his concussion. Not only that, but we've got a new hitting coach who has done wonders in AAA.

As far as defensively, we have the new question mark in CF, but other than that, how are we any worse off than we were at the start of last year? At least going into spring training people have a whole lot better idea what position they're going to end up in.

And hey, our pitching staff can't get much worse.

As far as Detroit, I'm sure they're going to be picked as a favorite, but I don't think they're invincible. Is a 37 year old OF and a DH coming off a year lost to injury really gonna make that big an impact? I'm not entirely sure.

But who the hell knows for sure at this point?

ThePuck
02-09-2013, 10:55 PM
Hey, this is all a shot in the dark at this point. It'll be a couple weeks before we even really have a clue as far as what our 25 man rosters is going to look like.

I don't honestly think that we've taken as far a step back offensively as some people think. I don't think anyone will miss Casilla offensively. I'm sure there are plenty of folks who would bank on Revere taking a step back offensively this year. The major loss is Span, and he hasn't actually been a model of health the last few years, nor has he returned to the excellent numbers he had in the Dome. On the flip side, Plouffe has has time to mature and heal his thumb, Willingham is coming off a career year, and Mourneau is another year removed from his concussion. Not only that, but we've got a new hitting coach who has done wonders in AAA.

As far as defensively, we have the new question mark in CF, but other than that, how are we any worse off than we were at the start of last year? At least going into spring training people have a whole lot better idea what position they're going to end up in.

And hey, our pitching staff can't get much worse.

As far as Detroit, I'm sure they're going to be picked as a favorite, but I don't think they're invincible. Is a 37 year old OF and a DH coming off a year lost to injury really gonna make that big an impact? I'm not entirely sure.

But who the hell knows for sure at this point?

You think CF is the only place we take a loss on defense? What about RF? Revere was #1 in UZR/150 for MLB RF...by quite a bit He was 3rd in actual UZR only because he only played 708 innings there. The guy directly ahead of him in actual UZR for RF, played 471 more innings than he did and the guy sitting 1st played 620 more innings than he did. Basically we lost arguably the best defensive RF and also the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball from last year. With this pitch to contact staff, you don't think that's gonna be huge?

As far as people expecting Revere to take a step back offensively...based on what?

And as far as that 37 year old RF Detroit went and got...does he seem to have missed a beat? He was the 5th ranked defensive RF in the game and had an OPS over .800.

jimbo92107
02-09-2013, 11:07 PM
Can't we wait until the second week of spring training for the first round of wild guesses? We don't even know whose arms have fallen off yet!

notoriousgod71
02-09-2013, 11:59 PM
Why are people so optimistic about this team? The starting pitching will still be awful, the offense will be meh, they won't have a CF until May or June and expect him to learn on the job, and the bullpen has two reliable arms, not to mention the continuously eroding fundamentals by this team.

I voted 60-69. I just have a hard time thinking this team is any better than the past two seasons.

johnnydakota
02-10-2013, 12:19 AM
59-103 through 62 - 100 , and only hustons presence keeps us from being the worst team in the American leaque 3 years striaght

IdahoPilgrim
02-10-2013, 09:23 AM
Why are people so optimistic about this team? The starting pitching will still be awful, the offense will be meh, they won't have a CF until May or June and expect him to learn on the job, and the bullpen has two reliable arms, not to mention the continuously eroding fundamentals by this team.

I voted 60-69. I just have a hard time thinking this team is any better than the past two seasons.

I can't speak for everybody but I am optimistic for the following reasons:

1) The starting pitching is almost certainly going to be better than last year. Last year was an aberration - every single pre-season starter was out of the rotation by July, and the club had to scramble just to throw somebody (anybody) out there. That's a once-in-a-lifetime thing. We may not set the league on fire in ERA+, but I see no where to go but up.

2) Morneau came back much better than I expected, Mauer is back in form at the plate, and even with the lack of production from the middle infield we did show the ability to score runs last year. Inconsistent, to be sure, but it is there. Similar years for M&M this year, Willingham at 80% of what he was, a surge by Plouffe or Parmelee (neither of which is out of the picture), and replacement value hitting from the rest should score us enough runs to be competitive and make a run at .500 ball.

3) Yes, CF is a gamble, but one everyone knew we had to take, and given the depth in the farm system, one that is not unjustified. I'm going to trust that the organization wouldn't have given away both Span and Revere unless they felt there was enough to bring up to at least fill the gap and allow the farm system to develop further.

4) Bullpen pitching is notoriously unpredictable. Every year it's a coin toss whether it gels or not. Last year was a pleasant surprise; the previous year wasn't. Who knows what we'll have this year, but even if it's not as reliable as last year, if the starters can get deeper into the game (into the 7th inning) it will reduce any impact.

5) Because life is more pleasant when you think about good things instead of bad things. I choose to hope for the best and not assume the worst, especially in February and March. We have enough to be depressed about in Minnesota in winter; why add this to the list?

crarko
02-10-2013, 09:48 AM
I'll go for 73-74. Not good, but better than last year.

Willihammer
02-10-2013, 10:10 AM
I have some hope that this team might do something like the 2004 Red Sox. Score a whole bunch of runs basically. They could do it if they get career years out of the heart of their order while catching fire with Plouffe, Hicks/Mastro, and Dozier. Pitching will be about damage control and lucky breaks.

FrodaddyG
02-10-2013, 10:40 AM
I have some hope that this team might do something like the 2004 Red Sox. Score a whole bunch of runs basically. They could do it if they get career years out of the heart of their order while catching fire with Plouffe, Hicks/Mastro, and Dozier. Pitching will be about damage control and lucky breaks.
I agree that if 7/9 of the lineup have career years, they'll probably do all right. Now, what are the chances of flipping heads 7 times in a row?

ashburyjohn
02-10-2013, 01:33 PM
http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sFi_slapfight.gif

My new favorite emoticon.

twinsnorth49
02-10-2013, 01:58 PM
http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sFi_slapfight.gif




My new favorite emoticon.

Pretty representative of this board a lot of days, in which I share in the guilt.

The Greatest Poster Alive
02-10-2013, 01:59 PM
I agree that if 7/9 of the lineup have career years, they'll probably do all right. Now, what are the chances of flipping heads 7 times in a row?

A coin landing heads or tails is completely independent of the previous outcome of flipping said coin. Sorry, I just really hate that analogy.

twinsnorth49
02-10-2013, 02:15 PM
I agree that if 7/9 of the lineup have career years, they'll probably do all right. Now, what are the chances of flipping heads 7 times in a row?


A coin landing heads or tails is completely independent of the previous outcome of flipping said coin. Sorry, I just really hate that analogy.


First law of probability.

jokin
02-10-2013, 02:40 PM
66-75 would be my category.

With the chance to go as great as 15-2 or 14-3 against the likes of Houston, Miami, NY Mets and Milwaukee, a disastrous plague of injuries or performance down-years can be mitigated to the downside with these 17 gimmee games- providing an expectation floor of 66 Wins and can help inflate the ceiling to 75 Wins if "Plan A" stays fairly well-intact all season.

TheLeviathan
02-10-2013, 03:02 PM
You can still compound probability, 7 coins flipped one after the other all landing heads consecutively has the probability is .7%. Each independent event is 50/50 but you can still determine the probability of a series.

Halsey Hall
02-10-2013, 03:23 PM
I'll go with 73 wins this year. Being down here in Ft Myers now and watching them practice the last few weeks gets on pumped up, but realisticaly this team will still have trouble scoring runs, and probably with defense. The pitching should be better.

ashburyjohn
02-10-2013, 04:00 PM
First law of probability.

Do laws of probability explain why athletes are like coins?

The first law, as usually stated, is a bit circular, as it asserts independence of individual events. It doesn't demonstrate that the independence exists. Dozier and Plouffe both improving at bat, for instance, might be because the two of them both benefit from Brunansky being with the parent club; or it could be from them sitting together on the bench between at-bats and discussing their approaches at the plate and having some kind of simultaneous epiphany about Uncle Charley.

Nothing really wrong with 7 heads out of 9 flips as a quick estimate of how much assumption is being built into one's season forecast. But it's not really a mathematical theorem either.

Connecticut Twins Fan
02-10-2013, 04:38 PM
74 wins. Solid improvement from Morneau and Parmelee help offset the loss of Span and Revere; a mediocre (as opposed to awful) rotation keeps the team in far more games.

FrodaddyG
02-10-2013, 04:57 PM
A coin landing heads or tails is completely independent of the previous outcome of flipping said coin. Sorry, I just really hate that analogy.
And each player's results are independent of one another, unless we somehow get to have two players go hit during every plate appearance. (And, really, the chances of any one of those players having a career year is probably less than 50%.)

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-04-2013, 04:55 PM
Looks like we'll get around 70. Fangraphs has us at 71 and I said 71 to start, so looking good!

cmb0252
09-04-2013, 05:14 PM
24 games left and only 7 vs teams under .500. I will go 70 exactly.

Brandon
09-04-2013, 07:33 PM
We just need to go 9-15 to finish with 70. I think odds are in our favor.

USAFChief
09-04-2013, 07:51 PM
Is there a way to find out what I voted? Honest question, I don't remember.

PseudoSABR
09-04-2013, 07:58 PM
Is there a way to find out what I voted? Honest question, I don't remember.
Your vote should be in italics. I believe.

USAFChief
09-04-2013, 08:15 PM
Your vote should be in italics. I believe.
Uh...where? How?

PseudoSABR
09-04-2013, 09:12 PM
Uh...where? How?For me, the numbers 70-79 are italicized...

USAFChief
09-04-2013, 09:16 PM
For me, the numbers 70-79 are italicized...
Well I'll be hornswaggled. Me too.