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Nick Nelson
02-05-2013, 08:04 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1352-The-Bright-Side

lightfoot789
02-05-2013, 08:20 PM
I like how you think Nelson. .500 is a realistic possibility if the breaks fall our way. I'm a believer until all hope is gone.

Brock Beauchamp
02-05-2013, 08:38 PM
Amidst all the pessimism over how badly the free agent market has been handled this offseason, it's easy to forget that with several lucky breaks, this team could easily finish over .500.

Yes, it's a longshot. Yes, it's unlikely to happen without divine intervention. But with Mauer and Morneau on the roster (along with Willingham and Doumit), this team will be able to smack the ball around quite a bit of those guys stay healthy (far from a given) and Parmelee and/or Plouffe turn into consistent offensive threats.

As for the pitching staff... well, yeah. That's going to require actual divine intervention to succeed.

Anorthagen
02-05-2013, 08:43 PM
It's nice to read something positive about the twins for a change. Lately it has been too much negative.

fairweather
02-05-2013, 08:45 PM
When I try to think of the upcoming season from a glass half full type of view I point out to my fellow disheartened Twins fans that Vavra has been replaced by Bruno. Hopefully this will bring out the tremendous talent in youngsters like Parmalee Plouffe and Hicks.

Steve Penz
02-05-2013, 09:01 PM
Why not? I don't know about 500 but i think there will be improvement. I am excited to see cf workout, to see parmalee get 500 ABs, at the hope that Mauer and Morneau get off to solid beginnings instead of struggling, to see Meyer and Arcia get call ups, and to watch the first time a sac fly happens and a runner challenges the arm of Aaron Hicks. Lets get this season started.

Top Gun
02-05-2013, 09:07 PM
I think the Twins can make the playoffs. That is what everyone hopes for, There is no reason that the Twins can't be a wild card team. It's all about getting off to a good start. With just a little confidence the younger players can really rally this team.

one_eyed_jack
02-05-2013, 09:09 PM
I can't disagree with anything you've said here. Yes, if a bunch of things break our way, we could win 81 games.

However, I share the frustration that Howard and others have expressed - a little bit more help could have made a big difference i - and the fact that the team either wouldn't or couldn't get that help leaves a sour taste in the mouths of the fans who were assured that new revenues from Target Field would be put back into the product.

I think that's where a lot of the negativity is coming from. I mean if your absolute sunniest day, highest ceiling, best-case scenario is .a 500 finish in the weakest division in baseball, how can you expect fans to get all that excited about forking over their hard earned money to watch this team? Winning organizations demand success, they do not tolerate mediocrity.

I really hope I'm wrong about this team. Sure wouldn't be the first time. Maybe it's still too cold and I'm still bitter over the Timberwolves and the avalanche of bad breaks they've endured in what began as a season with so much promise. But right now, I'm just not feeling it.

Oldgoat_MN
02-05-2013, 09:36 PM
It does seem likely that the starting rotation could not be any worse and actually has to improve, lest some little known record of futility fall to the Twins.
Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Hendriks... someone will step up, right? Perhaps several someones.
Let's go with that. It's spring.

Top Gun
02-05-2013, 10:39 PM
The super bowl is now over and it's time to cheer for the Twins Just think what would be if the Vikes drafted C. Kaepernick (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6530/colin-kaepernick/1) instead of Ponder.

Willihammer
02-05-2013, 10:43 PM
http://i.imgur.com/SwHqdom.png

The Greatest Poster Alive
02-05-2013, 10:51 PM
Well I believe Diamond can be quality starter. Good #3

Worley could become a #2

I'm not ready to give up on Hendricks yet.

Gibson could rebound.

Pelfrey/Harden/Correia could turn into a decent 5th starter.

Saunders could run out of options, sign here, and play like a man on fire here hoping for a deal next season.

That rotation is enough to get to .500.

Hicks, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Parmalee, Plouffe could produce some runs.

This team could sneak into a wild card play-in game if everything falls together.

glunn
02-06-2013, 12:09 AM
Thanks, Nick. Things may not work out as hoped this year, but you give cogent reasons to be hopeful. I plan to remain hopeful at least until the end of April, even if the Twins lose their first 20 games.

Gernzy
02-06-2013, 08:28 AM
I think the Twins can make the playoffs. That is what everyone hopes for, There is no reason that the Twins can't be a wild card team. It's all about getting off to a good start. With just a little confidence the younger players can really rally this team.

If the rotation does decent, our offense can carry the rest of the team I could see us making the playoffs.

Remember a few years ago when offense was the big question maek and the rotation was great?

Han Joelo
02-06-2013, 08:29 AM
Can someone write a post about potential salary-dump mid-season trade targets? Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay come to mind, although you've always got the no-trade nonsense.

Gallardo, Lincecum, someone from the A's...They all sound better than Marcum or Saunders.

70charger
02-06-2013, 09:41 AM
I enjoyed this article. Last year, our lineup was reasonably average, our relievers were reasonably above-average, and our starting pitching staff exploded into one of the biggest, bloodiest debacles the Twins have seen in decades. I agree that the Twins didn't do as much as they could have to shore up the 2013 team, but is it relying on an unreasonable amount of luck to think that our staff this year will be better than the combination of Baker, Blackburn, Pavano, Marquis, Liriano, Swarzak, De Vries, etc., etc. from 2012? I don't think so. Hell, even having two or three of our initial starting five make it all the way through the season would be a vast upgrade.

I also agree with the idea that we're playing with a bunch of lottery tickets (Plouffe, Parmelee, Hicks, Gibson, et al.), but these aren't Scratch and Win $100 cards. These are the mega millions kind of guys.

But hey, what do I know? Apparently I'm nothing but a shill for the front office.

snepp
02-06-2013, 10:02 AM
Last year, our lineup was reasonably average, our relievers were reasonably above-average

By "reasonably" do you mean they weren't actually that good, but it sounds better that way?

twinsnorth49
02-06-2013, 10:13 AM
I think this is how it goes, I think we were reasonably not bad last year and not bad this year.

Great
Good
Average
Reasonably average
Not Bad
Reasonably not bad
Reasonably not good
Not good
Bad

DAM DC Twins Fans
02-06-2013, 10:30 AM
I am not optimistic for even 500...because our defense is too weak...we will give up a lot of hits that could have been caught with better defense...Hicks is the key lottery pick...because he must cover a ton of ground in OF with Josh and Parmalee in the corners...I fear a lot of doubles against us...we are also counting on Dozier (more optimistic about him) and whomever in the IF.

70charger
02-06-2013, 10:48 AM
By "reasonably" do you mean they weren't actually that good, but it sounds better that way?

More or less. They were a bit above-average in some respects as compared to the rest of MLB (10th in OBP, 11th in BA), but they were a bit below average in others (18th in OPS). You can weight it however you want, but regardless, you'll find that the Twins were reasonably average. They weren't blowing anyone away, but let's not pretend like they were anywhere close to the Mariners or Astros, etc. when it comes to batting suckitude.

70charger
02-06-2013, 10:56 AM
Just to continue this line of thought, the Twins' team relievers were 17th with a 3.77 ERA, while the starters were only "better" than Colorado, coming in at 29th with a 5.40. I maintain that at least a part of the relievers' performance numbers had to do with starters regularly going 3-5 innings, as well as running some crappy relievers out there (*ahem* Jeff Gray) to mop up innings when the Twins were already behind by six runs and didn't really care anymore.

So again, lineup: reasonably average; relievers: reasonably average; starters: ****ty.

Nick Nelson
02-06-2013, 11:18 AM
Amidst all the pessimism over how badly the free agent market has been handled this offseason, it's easy to forget that with several lucky breaks, this team could easily finish over .500.

Yes, it's a longshot. Yes, it's unlikely to happen without divine intervention.

I'm not sure it's even that unlikely. Based on their talent, I've got the Twins pegged right now as a mid-to-high 70-win team. Picking up an extra handful of victories to move above .500 wouldn't require a miracle necessarily, just better luck than the past two years.

Blackjack
02-06-2013, 11:25 AM
Thanks for the positive article!!! Its a 'ray of sunshine' after all the negativity lately!!


Realistically, I'm not looking for that same type of storybook season here. But with more good breaks than bad, the Twins can be a .500 team or better. If it's hard to remember what "more good breaks than bad" feels like after the last two years, check the previous ten for a reminder.]

I've always said that the Twins are usually built every year where everything has to work out just right, even when they win, they're never overpowering, they don't have excess players (or money) to use to fill in when injuries or poor performance happens.

jmlease1
02-06-2013, 12:24 PM
One of the advantages to the twins roster going into this season is they have a number of young players that I'm excited to watch and see if they're going to be capable of being building blocks for the future. Seeing what happens with guys like Parmelee, Gibson, Plouffe, Hicks, etc should be fun for serious Twins fans.

Last season's roster had a whole lot of ifs attached to it as well. I thought then that if a number of things broke right, the team would surprise a lot of people, but that there were so many question marks it was incredibly hard to predict how they'd actually do. Too many things that needed to go well didn't and the team stunk.

My lesson learned? Counting on a lot of things to break well for you is a recipe for failure in that season. Either the Twins haven't learned that lesson, or they've decided that they're better off rolling the dice on a lot of things to find out what they can count on for 2014 and beyond.

tmerrickkeller
02-06-2013, 12:25 PM
And between Average and Good is Reasonably Good. We could be reasonably good.

LoganJones
02-06-2013, 12:49 PM
The part of the equation that fans are consistently overlooking is the quality of the team's opponents really hasn't changed much. If anything it stands to go down. The Tigers had a guy win a triple crown and still had the same basic offensive performance as the Twins (who lest we forget had 90 games with 5 or more runs allowed) who were nearly always behind in early innings. I know the Tigers have a much better pitching staff, but their O won't be much better, probably could be scheduled for worse, since a guy is likely to regress from a tripe crown season. Also, the Tigers lost basically 7 games to injury in their front line starters. Expect that number to go up. And if it's Verlander? sub .500 is very likely.

Does anyone really expect the White Sox to be that good again? The Royals added 1 pretty good starter, but didn't adress their offense. Cleveland? They've added a bunch of people, but they surrendered even more runs than the Twins.

It's very likely the Tigers will have a better season overall, since the division is in pretty bad shape, but there's hope. If the Twins can avoid a 6-16 april and a 9-19 August, things could get interesting. Get in, get lucky and it's 1987 all over again.

ashburyjohn
02-06-2013, 01:26 PM
You left out:

Unreasonably good
Unreasonably bad
Unreasonably reasonable
Reasonably unreasonable
Unseasonably chilly

70charger
02-06-2013, 01:43 PM
Is this going to become a thing?

James
02-06-2013, 01:47 PM
Is this going to become a thing?
That's a reasonably good assumption.

Willihammer
02-06-2013, 01:49 PM
Unseasonably chilly

Or, as applied to baseball season, the Twins could range anywhere from

Unseasonably bad
Reasonably unwatchable
Don't buy
Risky
Unseasonably watchable
Watchable
Unsellably lullabiable

twinsnorth49
02-06-2013, 01:54 PM
Is this going to become a thing?

You started it http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sHa_hehe.gif

twinsnorth49
02-06-2013, 01:58 PM
Or in games with Kevin Correia starting,

Unreasonably unwatchable



OK OK....sorry......http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sFun_DeadHorse.gif

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 02:00 PM
The tough part for me to grasp is where the real improvements come in the lineup and on defense.
The lineup last year was about half acceptable to good production, and half meh.

The better half has had Span and Revere removed from it, and they'll be handing off to question marks. Parmelee SHOULD (I hope) turn a corner at the big league level, but if his three true outcomes skew excessively towards Ks and he doesn't click, it could be rough. Hicks/Benson/Mussolini in CF, who can rightly guess, but you can probably assume at least a slight declione from Span's numbers.

Willingham was a cornerstone guy in 2012, and had a career year. Can he repeat it at 34? I'd expect a slight taper off, but not a complete cliff. Doumit's 2012 was a career year, in large part due to actually staying healthy. I think he can maintain, but it will largely hinge on health, and it will take some good fortune to get 130+ games two years in a row out of a guy who has traditionally been injury prone in the past. Defensively, Hicks/Benson should fill in nicely for Span if one of them gets the gig out of ST, but Revere to Parmelee is a significant defensive downgrade no matter how you slice it.

On the infield, Mauer should be Mauer. .320, 25 2B, 10 HR, OPS Mid 800s. Morneau could make a jump back to MVP form, but I'd say something more akin to the second half of last year is a more realistic expectation. 800 OPS, 20ish HR, 90 RBI. Solid.

Outside of those two, the rest of those ABs (about 2000 over the course of the season) will be going to a whole lot of sub-700 OPS hitters. Plouffe may bounce back and lock down the hot corner, or perhaps he just had a ridiculous 40 game stretch last year, and the .230 hitter we've seen is just what he's destined to be. Up the middle, Dozier is the one hope of a productive hitter, but I also wouldn't put it past Gardy and Co to have a short leash with him if he struggles, and not hesitate to turn the starter's role over to one of the "slick fielders" or Old Man Carroll. (And that could happen in spring training and I wouldn't be shocked.)

I'm not going to delve into the pitching, because we've been over all this before, and I really don't feel like making myself nauseous by looking at the 2012 pitching stats. The pitching should be somewhat better, if only because my mind rejects the idea of a staff worse than last year's being possible on this plane of existence. So, anyway, back to the offense.

The lineup, with all it's question marks, will need solid to amazing/career years (with both top notch production and being able to stay on the field) from Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit to even stay where it was last year, given the many gaps that likely will exist surrounding them in the lineup. When 3 of the 4 have had significant injury troubles in the past, the fact that losing any one of them for any significant period of time could cripple the lineup keeps my optimism tucked away behind my realist nature. But, weirder things have happened. (I'm just not sure there's enough bottles and lightning for both the lineup and the pitching staff to click enough to be competitive late into the year.)

70charger
02-06-2013, 02:03 PM
You started it http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sHa_hehe.gif

3210

Physics Guy
02-06-2013, 02:06 PM
I'm not sure it's even that unlikely. Based on their talent, I've got the Twins pegged right now as a mid-to-high 70-win team. Picking up an extra handful of victories to move above .500 wouldn't require a miracle necessarily, just better luck than the past two years.

I agree completely. My guess is 77 wins (+/- 5).

Kwak
02-06-2013, 02:09 PM
The sun is shining, the weather warming, with Spring and Baseball to soon follow. There is reason to be "on the bright side." We certainly can anticipate that things will improve--and with the favorite baseball team. There will be new players showcased, they might be future stars--maybe even this season! The worst that can happen is more of the same--but there will be a silver lining even if we get a dark cloud for the 2013 season. The Twins would select early (again) in the subsequent Amateur Draft and quite likely it will produce more of the promising players like those who have been mentioned in other threads of TD. Eventually there will be enough of them to build a consistent winner. Who knows another season (or two) of 90+ loss seasons might cause a change in philosophy that disdains the mediocre--"innings eater" or "plays-the-game-right" guys and prefers those who are hailed as "all-stars" or "Oh boy are we lucky to get him!" player-types.
Let's all look forward to Spring, Baseball, better things--"The Bright Side".

ThePuck
02-06-2013, 02:19 PM
By "reasonably" do you mean they weren't actually that good, but it sounds better that way?

10th out of 14 AL teams in scoring...

IdahoPilgrim
02-06-2013, 05:20 PM
Amidst all the pessimism over how badly the free agent market has been handled this offseason, it's easy to forget that with several lucky breaks, this team could easily finish over .500.

Yes, it's a longshot. Yes, it's unlikely to happen without divine intervention. But with Mauer and Morneau on the roster (along with Willingham and Doumit), this team will be able to smack the ball around quite a bit of those guys stay healthy (far from a given) and Parmelee and/or Plouffe turn into consistent offensive threats.

As for the pitching staff... well, yeah. That's going to require actual divine intervention to succeed.

For what it's worth, I've already started working on that. Can't make any promises, though...:D

GCTF
02-06-2013, 06:16 PM
I think this is how it goes, I think we were reasonably not bad last year and not bad this year.

Great
Good
Average
Reasonably average
Not Bad
Reasonably not bad
Reasonably not good
Not good
Bad
Butera


One more addition

twinsnorth49
02-06-2013, 06:42 PM
One more addition


Sorry...my bad.

Riverbrian
02-06-2013, 06:47 PM
For what it's worth, I've already started working on that. Can't make any promises, though...:D

In that specific area... I need to ask you a couple of questions.

Is it possible that Twins Fans can out pray the Indians, Royals, Tigers and White Sox Fans? Would that be good for some W's?

Also, is it possible that Nishioka did something real bad, evil, horrible and the Twins team and Twins Fans have been effected by that possible Heavenly Karma?

I chose Nishioka for the example because he's the only player I can think of that was on the Roster for both of the bad years of 2011 and 2012 but not on the roster for the playoff year of 2010.

If you think about it... This could all be Nishioka's fault karma wise. He wasn't rostered when we were good.

The bad times came with him. Maybe the bad times followed him out the door. Something to think about!!! :whacky028:

70charger
02-06-2013, 06:52 PM
If you think about it... This could all be Nishioka's fault karma wise. He wasn't rostered when we were good.

Cue up Spirit of Vodka Dave....

LaBombo
02-06-2013, 08:06 PM
The part of the equation that fans are consistently overlooking is the quality of the team's opponents really hasn't changed much. If anything it stands to go down. The Tigers had a guy win a triple crown and still had the same basic offensive performance as the Twins (who lest we forget had 90 games with 5 or more runs allowed) who were nearly always behind in early innings. I know the Tigers have a much better pitching staff, but their O won't be much better, probably could be scheduled for worse, since a guy is likely to regress from a tripe crown season. Also, the Tigers lost basically 7 games to injury in their front line starters. Expect that number to go up. And if it's Verlander? sub .500 is very likely.

Does anyone really expect the White Sox to be that good again? The Royals added 1 pretty good starter, but didn't adress their offense. Cleveland? They've added a bunch of people, but they surrendered even more runs than the Twins.

It's very likely the Tigers will have a better season overall, since the division is in pretty bad shape, but there's hope. If the Twins can avoid a 6-16 april and a 9-19 August, things could get interesting. Get in, get lucky and it's 1987 all over again.

Who's the more likely candidate for serious regression, the 30 year old Cabrera whose 2012 WAR was lower than his 2011 total, or the 34 year Willi whose 2012 WAR was double his 2011 output?

And while the Twins will replace their third-best hitter with either a journeyman or a double A kid, the Tigers replaced the worst outfielder in baseball with one of the best, and will probably get a strong bounceback season from Avila.

And a Verlander-less Tigers rotation would still feature 4 guys who would very likely be the ace of yet another dreadful Twins staff. Diamond and Porcello have nearly equal James ERA projections. Diamond is the Twins ersatz ace, while the Tigers shopped Porcello, who is now their 6th best starter.

Also, when you say that the Royals added a "pretty good starter", I'm assuming you're referring to Shields, who's posted a top-20 WAR among all MLB starters the past two seasons. But they also added Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, who both pitched well in 2010 and '11 before derailing last year. Their 2013 James ERA projections are 4.04 and 4.20 respectively. How many Twins starters do you expect to beat or even equal that while backed by a Span-less, Revere-less outfield?

I'll be pulling for them, but they're probably going to be lousy again this year.

IdahoPilgrim
02-07-2013, 07:35 AM
In that specific area... I need to ask you a couple of questions.

Is it possible that Twins Fans can out pray the Indians, Royals, Tigers and White Sox Fans? Would that be good for some W's?

Also, is it possible that Nishioka did something real bad, evil, horrible and the Twins team and Twins Fans have been effected by that possible Heavenly Karma?

I chose Nishioka for the example because he's the only player I can think of that was on the Roster for both of the bad years of 2011 and 2012 but not on the roster for the playoff year of 2010.

If you think about it... This could all be Nishioka's fault karma wise. He wasn't rostered when we were good.

The bad times came with him. Maybe the bad times followed him out the door. Something to think about!!! :whacky028:

The theologian in me says that God is not going to favor any particular team based just on who prays the most; the Twins fans in me says let's try it and see what happens!

As far as karma, my religious beliefs are based on grace instead, and on a God who lifts up those who are oppressed and downtrodden. Certainly I don't want to make light of those who truly fall into those categories, but speaking strictly in a baseball sense, I would have to think Twins fans currently fit into that category.:)

savvyspy
02-07-2013, 07:53 AM
I don't care what the record is. I view progress by some of the following occurring:

1. Plouffe establishes himself as an everyday player
2. Morneau is traded for someone that contributes at the major league level in 2014 or 2015
3. Mauer over 85 RBIs
4. Worley is a legit 200 inning #3 starter
5. Diamond doesn't regress
6. Parmalee plays everyday at 1B or RF and produces
7. Burton and Perkins are solid at the back of the pen
8. Correia is in Rochester or cut by June 1st
9. Someone is a legitimate middle infielder
10. Either Gibson or Hendricks pitches more than 150 innings (or whatever the max is for Gibson) and is around 10 wins and a sub 4.25 ERA andkm opposing batters aren't hitting .330 against then.

i love this team's minor league system. I just don't see a core to build around that I 100% trust. I'd like to see Diamond, Worley, Plouffe, Perkins, and Parmalee be the core but there are question marks around all of those guys.

Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece. He's a great hitter but they are just as likely to win 90 games with him as without him. Not a clubhouse leader in anyway and his salary hinders a true rebuild. That said, if other pieces are in place he's steady and gets on base.

Brock Beauchamp
02-07-2013, 08:08 AM
Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece. He's a great hitter but they are just as likely to win 90 games with him as without him. Not a clubhouse leader in anyway and his salary hinders a true rebuild. That said, if other pieces are in place he's steady and gets on base.

.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

Riverbrian
02-07-2013, 08:12 AM
The theologian in me says that God is not going to favor any particular team based just on who prays the most; the Twins fans in me says let's try it and see what happens!

As far as karma, my religious beliefs are based on grace instead, and on a God who lifts up those who are oppressed and downtrodden. Certainly I don't want to make light of those who truly fall into those categories, but speaking strictly in a baseball sense, I would have to think Twins fans currently fit into that category.:)

I think Theologian in you may be right on the prayer. I remember as a boy kneeling before bedtime praying for Bombo Rivera and Danny Goodwin greatness and a victory over the White Sox tomorrow and the late 70's didn't go so well.

I'd say the prayer and my Mom would wait for me to finish. She would tuck me in and tell me the prayer was nice but it would have been a good idea to mention Uncle Joe and his surgery on Friday.

On Karma... I think I'm on to something... I think we got a bad dose of Nishioka Karma that spilled on to everyone. Its been nothing but injuries and bad pitching since he came to town. ;)

old nurse
02-07-2013, 09:09 AM
.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

Does not hit home runs, Does not steal bases. Does not swing at 3-0 pitches. Did not date the hottest chick on the planet, Does not publicly say things like "jump on my back" and led the team to a World Series victory. Does try to sell you a Chevrolet, not a Cadillac

Willihammer
02-07-2013, 09:36 AM
Did not date the hottest chick on the planet

Might be he lacks confidence?

twinsnorth49
02-07-2013, 09:42 AM
Does not hit home runs, Does not steal bases. Does not swing at 3-0 pitches. Did not date the hottest chick on the planet, Does not publicly say things like "jump on my back" and led the team to a World Series victory. Does try to sell you a Chevrolet, not a Cadillac


Where exactly are you going with this and what does any of it have to do with how good a basebal player Joe Mauer is?

ThePuck
02-07-2013, 09:48 AM
7th out of 14 in BA, 5th out of 14 in OBP, 12th out of 14 in SLG%, 10th out of 14 in OPS, 10th out of 14 in runs.

Above average in OBP. Average in one category in BA. Below average in SLG%, OPS and most importantly runs scored

ChiTownTwinsFan
02-07-2013, 09:49 AM
I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

Because the 'average' Twins fan isn't a knowledgeable baseball fan.

ThePuck
02-07-2013, 09:56 AM
Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece. He's a great hitter but they are just as likely to win 90 games with him as without him. Not a clubhouse leader in anyway and his salary hinders a true rebuild. That said, if other pieces are in place he's steady and gets on base.

-'Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece.' Um, how do you figure?
-'Not a clubhouse leader in anyway ' Um, how is it in a major league clubhouse? I've always wanted to know. Must be awesome in the Twins clubhouse.
-'His salary hinders a true rebuild.' Um, how? Explain. Twins cutting payroll by 32M over the last two years doesn't help put a contender on the field, but since we rebuild through the draft and trades for prospects, how is his salary hindering anything?
-'He's steady'. Um, oh...steady....that's an interesting description of a player like Mauer.

LoganJones
02-07-2013, 10:28 AM
.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

Simple matter of "the food here is terrible, and the portions so tiny."

ashburyjohn
02-07-2013, 01:17 PM
.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

Be fair. It's not that much of a skill to get on base at a .400 clip if you're starting from a batting average of .347/.365 some years.

ashburyjohn
02-07-2013, 01:19 PM
7th out of 14 in BA, 5th out of 14 in OBP, 12th out of 14 in SLG%, 10th out of 14 in OPS, 10th out of 14 in runs.

Above average in OBP. Average in one category in BA. Below average in SLG%, OPS and most importantly runs scored

But enough about Joe Mauer...

ThePuck
02-08-2013, 08:44 AM
Be fair. It's not that much of a skill to get on base at a .400 clip if you're starting from a batting average of .347/.365 some years.

sarcasm?

LaBombo
02-08-2013, 09:47 AM
Be fair. It's not that much of a skill to get on base at a .400 clip if you're starting from a batting average of .347/.365 some years.

That's at least a little bit like saying 'It's no big deal to drive in 120 runs if 50 of those are the hitter driving himself in with homers'. And when Mauer had those batting averages you mentioned, he posted OBP's of .429 and .444. Those are ridiculously high for an offense-first position, let alone catcher.

ThePuck
02-08-2013, 10:01 AM
That's at least a little bit like saying 'It's no big deal to drive in 120 runs if 50 of those are the hitter driving himself in with homers'. And when Mauer had those batting averages you mentioned, he posted OBP's of .429 and .444. Those are ridiculously high for an offense-first position, let alone catcher.

yeah, I mean, look at a guy like Ichiro. two time batting champ, 4 times with an BA of .350 or higher. only had an OBP in the .400s once. Mauer has been over .400 5 times.

CDog
02-08-2013, 10:12 AM
For whatever reason, I keep comparing my expectations right now to my expectations last year just before Spring Training. That hasn't been such a rosy feeling, so an article like this is good to remind me that the expectations are better compared to what actually happened (especially in the rotation) instead of what I expected to happen. So I think that leads me to this year being worse than I expected last year's team to be, while better than what they actually were. My internal over/under for wins is 74.5. Some breaks could certainly get that up to a .500 team. (Of course, that means some other kinds of breaks could certainly drop that into the 60s, again.)

LoganJones
02-08-2013, 10:20 AM
As to the Mauer discussion. Who is the greatest hitter in Twins history? If you think it's Harmon, then you're going to find Joe's game a bit underwhelming due to the homer thing. If you think hitting is about getting on base, it's Rod Carew. Both of these guys are fine choices. If we compare the slash lines of all three players through their Age 29 season we find this.
Harmon: .263/.373/.546 147 OPS+ (leaves out his 1st 5 years which were not representative)
Carew: .328/.383/.430 130 OPS+
Mauer: .323/.405/.468 135 OPS+

So depending on how you value hitting, Mauer is either the best or second best hitter in Twins history through the age 29 season. Kirby should get a mention (.323./.357/.469 123 OPS+), but he'd only played 5 years by age 29.
ETA: If you're an OPS+ supporter you might also think Tony O rates ahead of Mauer for the age 29 thing.

ThePuck
02-08-2013, 10:39 AM
As to the Mauer discussion. Who is the greatest hitter in Twins history? If you think it's Harmon, then you're going to find Joe's game a bit underwhelming due to the homer thing. If you think hitting is about getting on base, it's Rod Carew. Both of these guys are fine choices. If we compare the slash lines of all three players through their Age 29 season we find this.
Harmon: .263/.373/.546 147 OPS+ (leaves out his 1st 5 years which were not representative)
Carew: .328/.383/.430 130 OPS+
Mauer: .323/.405/.468 135 OPS+

So depending on how you value hitting, Mauer is either the best or second best hitter in Twins history through the age 29 season. Kirby should get a mention (.323./.357/.469 123 OPS+), but he'd only played 5 years by age 29.
ETA: If you're an OPS+ supporter you might also think Tony O rates ahead of Mauer for the age 29 thing.

And then consider Mauer has done it while being primarily a catcher.