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righty8383
02-05-2013, 10:20 AM
Keith Law has released his top 100 prospects list (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8891538/mlb-top-100-prospects-2013-jurickson-profar-dylan-bundy-more) and, as expected, 7 Twins made the list. The best part, they all ranked in the top 65!

#11: Miguel Sano
#22: Byron Buxton
#41: Kyle Gibson
#49: Aaron Hicks
#59: Oswaldo Arcia
#61: Alex Meyer
#65: Eddie Rosario

Some pretty good reads on these players too for those that have insider.

righty8383
02-05-2013, 10:25 AM
I'm guessing the biggest suprise for most people will be Gibson ahead of Meyer. KLAW notes that some in the industry think he may be a bullpen candidate down the road. But with the Twins lack of quality starters, he will stay in the rotation until he proves he can't handle it.

Seth Stohs
02-05-2013, 10:28 AM
not only 7 in the top 10, but 7 in the top 65. That's pretty incredible!

gunnarthor
02-05-2013, 10:41 AM
I think his order is about right, too. I don't have insider but can someone tell me what he general opinion of Hicks was?

righty8383
02-05-2013, 10:49 AM
A lot of stuff that we already know. Really good defender with and 80 arm. Better from the right side but has improved enough from the left side to stay as a swich hitter. I'll share the last little paragraph about him...


If he develops 20-homer power, he's a potential star; if not, he's a very good everyday player thanks to his defense and potential for high OBPs.

Physics Guy
02-05-2013, 11:09 AM
Love this quote for Arcia:

"Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone..."

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 11:35 AM
Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.

jtrinaldi
02-05-2013, 11:45 AM
Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.
Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.

Twins Twerp
02-05-2013, 12:06 PM
Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.

I don't know if I agree with that. There are three reasons I feel this way. I think people will tend to agree with me.

1. The Twins rarely push prospects more than one level per season. (There are examples such as Mauer and Arcia last year, but they usually stay in the minors longer than other organizations would keep them, right, wrong or indifferent).
2. Rosario is learning a new position and NEEDS extra time at lower levels to work on footwork.
3. I think the organization will try to keep Sano and Rosario together through minors.

Chance
02-05-2013, 12:26 PM
Agreed

nicksaviking
02-05-2013, 12:36 PM
Slow promotion or not, did anyone notice that Rosario is KLaw's top 2B? Higher than DeShields jr. and Wong.

lightfoot789
02-05-2013, 01:23 PM
I don't know if I agree with that. There are three reasons I feel this way. I think people will tend to agree with me.

1. The Twins rarely push prospects more than one level per season. (There are examples such as Mauer and Arcia last year, but they usually stay in the minors longer than other organizations would keep them, right, wrong or indifferent).
2. Rosario is learning a new position and NEEDS extra time at lower levels to work on footwork.
3. I think the organization will try to keep Sano and Rosario together through minors.

I agree

IdahoPilgrim
02-05-2013, 01:54 PM
Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.

He'll have to improve defensively before he moves through the system quickly. I saw him play in Beloit last year, and he made two truly bone-head plays at second. Granted, it's just one game, and I expect he'll pick it up, but clearly he's still a work in progress.

Physics Guy
02-05-2013, 02:06 PM
Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John.

Yes, KLaw saw him in the Arizona Fall League and gave a glowing report. I am not surprised he has him ranked that high.

ashburyjohn
02-05-2013, 03:10 PM
I saw him play in Beloit last year, and he made two truly bone-head plays at second.

Early season, or late? If it was July or August then that would be worrisome.

drunksam
02-05-2013, 03:17 PM
KLAW also ranked our system overall as #2. That's optimistic for the furture and it is good to know who number 2 works for.

B Richard
02-05-2013, 03:28 PM
KLAW also ranked our system overall as #2. That's optimistic for the furture and it is good to know who number 2 works for.

I really appreciate the reference there- funniest thing I've read all day

Brad Swanson
02-05-2013, 07:34 PM
KLaw tends to be a bit lower on the big name pitching prospects. He must really like Gibson to have him that high on his list.

Pitz
02-05-2013, 08:20 PM
I just signed up for a 30 day free trial of ESPN Insider just so I could read the prospect stuff that Law is putting out this week.
The thing that struck me most about his comments regarding Twins prospects was regarding Rosario's floor: an everyday outfielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles.
Obviously that's more valuable if he can stick at 2B but that seems like a really nice floor!

drjim
02-05-2013, 08:39 PM
I just signed up for a 30 day free trial of ESPN Insider just so I could read the prospect stuff that Law is putting out this week.
The thing that struck me most about his comments regarding Twins prospects was regarding Rosario's floor: an everyday outfielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles.
Obviously that's more valuable if he can stick at 2B but that seems like a really nice floor!

I would think so considering only 13 players hit that combination (.280/40 2Bs) in the entire majors last year.

Brock Beauchamp
02-05-2013, 08:56 PM
Looks fair. I'm assuming he's seen Gibson since his Tommy John. I think everyone is too low on Rosario and too high on Arcia. Rosario will ascend the system very quickly next season if he's not limited by injury. I feel it's possible that he could reach New Britain by late summer, but the Twins may hold him back because of the likely Ft. Myers playoffs. He rarely strikes out (which seems to hold most talented batters back), has outstanding contact, great power, and is pretty young at that. Remember too that he was the #2/#3 prospect in the system prior to the 2012.

How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 08:58 PM
Rosario does not have Great Power. Sano has "Great Power". Rosario has Above Average power. Rosario should be on the fast track to move through the system, had he not been injured, he would have ended up in Fort Myers in August.

You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 09:16 PM
How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.

I love Arcia, but is he top 60 material? I don't know about that. I'd go 80s. You completely ignored defense by the way, which is exactly the reason why. Baseball is more than just hitting the ball often and far. It's why an average year from Denard Span was just as valuable as Josh Willingham's best season. I didn't say it in my last post, but I love tools if it isn't obvious. Sure it's a corner outfield spot, but I think defense should be valued everywhere. His arm is not very impressionable and he isn't quick nor fast. Back to tools now. That's 2 really good ones out of 5. Plus, he also racks a disciprine like you said. I think he'll be a fantastic clean up guy and is about as close to a sure thing as possible, but I look at the ceiling more than the floor. There's a lot that he isn't capable of bringing. The standards for an outfielder are pretty high and especially on a team with a system chock full of good ones.

Brock Beauchamp
02-05-2013, 09:22 PM
I love Arcia, but is he top 60 material? I don't know about that. I'd go 80s. You completely ignored defense by the way, which is exactly the reason why. Baseball is more than just hitting the ball often and far. It's why an average year from Denard Span was just as valuable as Josh Willingham's best season. I didn't say it in my last post, but I love tools if it isn't obvious. Sure it's a corner outfield spot, but I think defense should be valued everywhere. His arm is not very impressionable and he isn't quick nor fast. Back to tools now. That's 2 really good ones out of 5. Plus, he also racks a disciprine like you said. I think he'll be a fantastic clean up guy and is about as close to a sure thing as possible, but I look at the ceiling more than the floor.

I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there.

As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 09:30 PM
Hate to post 3 in a row, but one more thing. I'm pretty much sold that this year we'll find out so much more about Rosario, Sano, Vargas, etc. Sure, we find out more every year and that sound like a generalization. To further elaborate, Ft. Myers has really been a difficult step for quite a few guys in the past (Namely Morales, Hicks). That may be a lot different because of the constant roster changes, but I feel like there's still a negative stigma about the place. It just seems like a benchmark for some reason.

FrodaddyG
02-05-2013, 09:43 PM
Hate to post 3 in a row, but one more thing. I'm pretty much sold that this year we'll find out so much more about Rosario, Sano, Vargas, etc. Sure, we find out more every year and that sound like a generalization. To further elaborate, Ft. Myers has really been a difficult step for quite a few guys in the past (Namely Morales, Hicks). That may be a lot different because of the constant roster changes, but I feel like there's still a negative stigma about the place. It just seems like a benchmark for some reason.
Ft. Myers is definitely a big step. It isn't like the Midwest League is typically a hitters' paradise, but the FSL is where hitting prospects (and most of the nation's elderly) go to die.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 09:44 PM
I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there.

As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.

He reminds me a lot of Jason Kubel when looking at both their previous minor league history. Same build, same handedness, same position, both fast risers, and both absolutely crushed New Britain. They look even closer when you throw out that Kubel decided to steal bases for one season. Arcia may not be as good a prospect that Kubel ever was, but professionally it could be different. As an eerie potential forecast, we can see now that Jason has only had one season where he provided more than 1 WAR. His contact has never been quite what it was then though and he doesn't have much to fall back on now (tools!) to become more than a minor upgrade.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 09:46 PM
Ft. Myers is definitely a big step. It isn't like the Midwest League is typically a hitters' paradise, but the FSL is where hitting prospects (and most of the nation's elderly) go to die.

Your post was funny and I loved it! The Florida, old people connection simply genius!

Twins Twerp
02-05-2013, 09:46 PM
We have two legit center fielders and no middle infield prospects. The move for Rosario seems pretty self explanatory. His bat will play much better at 2nd than center. Many around baseball also think that sano will end up in the outfield as he may outgrow thirdbase. Rosario definitely provides more value both as a prospect and to the twins organization as a mi guy. That is just my opinion but I will bet most twinsdaily members will agree Rosario needs to stay at 2nd to maximize his value.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-05-2013, 09:51 PM
We have two legit center fielders and no middle infield prospects. The move for Rosario seems pretty self explanatory. His bat will play much better at 2nd than center. Many around baseball also think that sano will end up in the outfield as he may outgrow thirdbase. Rosario definitely provides more value both as a prospect and to the twins organization as a mi guy. That is just my opinion but I will bet most twinsdaily members will agree Rosario needs to stay at 2nd to maximize his value.

Maximize his value for the Twins as in "an organizational plus". Just about any place else though and it's unchanged and could possibly be higher. And since no one can predict the future, maybe the Twins develop an addiction to trading outfielders, some don't pan out, and he's the man for the job? I'm just thinking that he's not much off Aaron Hicks if in Center.

PseudoSABR
02-05-2013, 10:10 PM
How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers:

18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs
19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs
20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs
21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs

The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid.

Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.I agree. I wonder if Arcia isn't punished because of his pedigree, and his relative unknownness before surging through the Twins system. I just don't see what there is NOT to like about Arcia, beyond some questions about his defense and health.

Badsmerf
02-05-2013, 10:29 PM
I can't even write a response to this nonsense. I've tried different ways, but ultimately I still end up wanting to punch babies. Rosario needs to improve on his defense at 2b... 2b.... 2b to be as good of a prospect as Arcia. The guy OPSed almost 1000 as a 21 yo in AA bro, those are some big numbers. A lot of prospects feast on lower level pitching, to me AA is the first big test.

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 07:16 AM
He reminds me a lot of Jason Kubel when looking at both their previous minor league history. Same build, same handedness, same position, both fast risers, and both absolutely crushed New Britain. They look even closer when you throw out that Kubel decided to steal bases for one season. Arcia may not be as good a prospect that Kubel ever was, but professionally it could be different. As an eerie potential forecast, we can see now that Jason has only had one season where he provided more than 1 WAR. His contact has never been quite what it was then though and he doesn't have much to fall back on now (tools!) to become more than a minor upgrade.

Jason Kubel would have been a very different player if his knee hasn't exploded in the AFL. IMO, Arcia is closer to pre-injury Kubel than post-injury Kubel. If Kubel still had mobility and wasn't a liability in the OF, he's a very valuable player. Over his career, his oWAR is 7.7 while his dWAR is -8.8. That's a huge discrepancy and if Arcia can be merely a mediocre defender, his value jumps way over Kubel.

As for Kubel being a better prospect... Well, I don't agree with that at all. Jason hit a little better at every level but he was also a level behind Arcia at the same age (before the injury). Once you factor in the age and level difference, they start to look like the same player and you might even give the nod to Arcia. It will be interesting to see what he does repeating at New Britain this season.

Badsmerf
02-06-2013, 07:47 AM
He's repeating at NB? Where did you hear this? Not that it matters too much, but I'd like to see him in AAA instead... if so that will really tell you how the Twins feel about AAA right now.

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 07:56 AM
He's repeating at NB? Where did you hear this? Not that it matters too much, but I'd like to see him in AAA instead... if so that will really tell you how the Twins feel about AAA right now.

I thought I read somewhere that he was repeating AA. I could be wrong.

beckmt
02-06-2013, 08:09 AM
A lot of this we will see in spring training. I do not think Parmalee is a sure thing, so I expect Arcia to be here this year. Trade Morneau if Parmalee looks like the replacement, bring up Arcia if Parmalee is not. This is Parmalees last chance to impress. Twins will try and resign Morneau if Parmalee does not shine.
Hope they push Rosario a little more. Defense could be an issue in not pushing, but Twins need him here sooner than later. Middle infield is a black hole at this time.

gunnarthor
02-06-2013, 08:45 AM
You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

Scouts haven't really been that high on Rosario's power as you. He had a ton of power in rookie ball but his ISO fell .150 points when he went up to A ball. There are plenty of players in our system with better power than him - Sano, Vargas, Arcia, Walker, Hicks, Kepler, Harrison to name a few. I tended to think Rosario was pretty overrated by our fanbase which was one reason I was so happy to see Klaw rank him so high but he still should be our 7th best prospect.

And the comparison to Hicks doesn't really hold up either. At 18, both were in rookie ball and Hicks was the better player. At 19, Rosario repeated the level while Hicks was promoted to A ball (and ranked #39 by BA). At 20, Hicks repeated Aball (and was ranked #19) while Rosario was promoted there. Hicks had the better season overall at age 20. Hicks down year was as a 21 year old at A+.

Shane Wahl
02-06-2013, 09:56 AM
Rosario as an outfielder is a good prospect. As a 2B, he is a great prospect. I do care about his slugging, but don't care as much if that slugging comes from doubles or homers.

There is no disputing what Arcia has done. There's also ZERO reason to have him start in New Britain. I would be flabbergasted if they do that. What on earth is the damn point in doing that? AAA matters, even if some here are right and that it matters minimally. Benson, Hicks, and Arcia should all be in AAA starting in the OF. Full stop.

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 10:51 AM
You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

Perfect example of reading too much into MiLB stats, especially rookie level ones. Rosario isn't going to launch 25-30 HR's at his peak (that IS a slugger). Maybe 20 at his peak, but where the "power" will show is racking up doubles. As for his arm, it's not a cannon, think a bit better than Span's arm (which is below average, but not close to Revere territory). He'll likely make more contact than Hicks (better avg.), but probably won't match the OBP.

I recommend checking this out: Scouting Report: Eddie Rosario (2B) | Baseball Prospect Nation (http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/10/18/scouting-report-eddie-rosario-2b/)

He doesn't have a slugger's body and there's not much room to add on strength. He's 6 foot 170 lbs-ish, and looks smaller than that in person to be quite honest:

3209

Bat speed can do a lot for you, but without large(r) body mass behind it, it's not nearly as potent as you think, doing more for "hitter" attributes than "power" ones.

If I'm describing him, Span is a good comp, with less on-base skill and a bit more double power, but not outrageous HR power. I also don't think he'll be as good of a defender in CF (can handle it if need be), and he still needs a lot of work to stick at 2B.

As for comparing Arcia to Kubel (pre-injury). Kubel absolutely RAKED, and was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet. I like the "Kubel-light" name I've seen thrown around.

nicksaviking
02-06-2013, 12:56 PM
As far as hopes and dreams go, perhaps Dustin Pedroia is what we should be comparing Rosario to.

Turd Furgeson
02-06-2013, 01:18 PM
You're seriously going to 'correct' me on something like that? 34HRs in 2 seasons looks pretty damn good for a 19-20 year old. Keep in mind he'll get stronger with time. Most teenagers don't develop power until later on. Wouldn't be surprised if he became a 25-30HR guy in peak years. He's not a slugger, but the adjective I used could have been good, above average, whatever. I wasn't using scouting terminology. He can hit long balls just as good as anyone in our minors except for Sano and to me that's great. He's also a 5 tool player if he moves back to Center Field. The move to 2nd may be good organization wise, but it's a myth that it improves his prospect status. Sticking at second really doesn't take advantage of his arm. In a way I see him as a different version of Hicks. More power, more contact (minus) switch hitting, no down year (yet), less speed, and better at managing strikeouts. I'd give Hicks the advantage in the field (Hicks has a cannon, more experience, and speed+other things=range), but Eddie certainly could provide "above average" defense there.

Rosario is a 5 tool player? Being a 5 tool player doesn't change based on what position you play, it just means you aren't utilizing all of your tools depending on the position. He has the hit tool, he is on the fringe of having the power tool, but I'd be willing to bet that his power tool is more in line with league average, which is still good! In fact, I'd say Rosario is probably a 1-2 tool player, but the rest of his tools are near in line with league average which makes him a very good prospect.

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 01:40 PM
As for comparing Arcia to Kubel (pre-injury). Kubel absolutely RAKED, and was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet. I like the "Kubel-light" name I've seen thrown around.

I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 02:15 PM
As for comparing Arcia to Kubel (pre-injury). Kubel absolutely RAKED, and was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet. I like the "Kubel-light" name I've seen thrown around.
Arcia age 21 Season - .928 OPS between A+ and AA, 36 2B, 17 HR

Jason Kubel age 21 season - a+ ball, .761 OPS, 20 2B, 5 HR

At the same age last year, Arcia raked better than Kubel and with half his games at a higher level.

PseudoSABR
02-06-2013, 02:18 PM
Arcia age 21 Season - .928 OPS between A+ and AA, 36 2B, 17 HR

Jason Kubel age 21 season - a+ ball, .761 OPS, 20 2B, 5 HR

At the same age last year, Arcia raked better than Kubel and with half his games at a higher level.But that's not how I remembered it, Fro.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 02:21 PM
But that's not how I remembered it, Fro.
Well, Arcia did play in eight more games, so Kubel probably would have gone for 2 2B and 1.5 HR a game if he got those extra eight under his belt.

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 02:36 PM
Well, to that, I say why isn't Arcia a top 20 MLB prospect like Kubel was then? This is why I would call it overvaluing him (at this point). Also, I don't buy the one year age difference you are citing to mean as much as you do. If Oz is in AAA next year, he'll be a 22 year old at that level in May. Kubel's birthday is in May as well, and he was also a 22 year old at AAA. (Did I mention May is the best month for birthdays?!)

70charger
02-06-2013, 02:51 PM
This is called "begging the question." It begins here:


Kubel absolutely RAKED, and was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet.

Rebuttal here:


At the same age last year, Arcia raked better than Kubel and with half his games at a higher level.

And the circle is completed here:


Well, to that, I say why isn't Arcia a top 20 MLB prospect like Kubel was then?

In simplified form this reads: "I don't think he's as good a prospect as Kubel, and despite his hitting stats being just as good as Kubel's, my evidence for my position is that he isn't as good a prospect as Kubel.

Please tell me you see the circularity.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 02:56 PM
Well, to that, I say why isn't Arcia a top 20 MLB prospect like Kubel was then? This is why I would call it overvaluing him (at this point). Also, I don't buy the one year age difference you are citing to mean as much as you do. If Oz is in AAA next year, he'll be a 22 year old at that level in May. Kubel's birthday is in May as well, and he was also a 22 year old at AAA. (Did I mention May is the best month for birthdays?!)
Kubel forced his way onto prospect lists for the same reason Arcia has. He hit wherever he went. Maybe 8 years ago, the evaluators more heavily weighed production over tools and projectability. My 8-year-back prospect recollection is a bit rusty, but maybe I can recall why I had Kubel ranked so high on the Baseball America list pre-2005. (BTW, John Danks was the BA #59 guy on that 2005 list to compare with Law's Arcia ranking, and baseball superstar/fat-person-of-note Delmon Young was #3 on that list. So those guys are always dead on.) :rolleyes:

Arcia isn't a sexy, 5 tool player. He's a corner OF who can play respectable defense and hits the hell out of the ball from the left side. That's the exact write-up Kubel would have had in his pre-injury years. But the fact is, he's a level ahead at the same age as Kubel prior to Kubel's breakout AA-AAA season. Does he roll into this season at AA or AAA and mash the way Kubel did when he got there? I don't know, because it hasn't happened yet. But to say the Kubel comp is "overstated" is humorous. He's done the exact same or more, than Kubel , with a very similar skill set, through the same point in their careers, which Is ALL YOU CAN COMPARE. Once Arcia has had another season under his belt, then feel free to bring Kubel's breakout 2004 season into the comparison, because this upcoming season will be Arcia's comparable season to that one.

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 03:20 PM
In simplified form this reads: "I don't think he's as good a prospect as Kubel, and despite his hitting stats being just as good as Kubel's, my evidence for my position is that he isn't as good a prospect as Kubel.

Please tell me you see the circularity.

I see it as this:

As a 21 year old in AA for half a season, Arcia went .328/.398/.557, with 35 XBH RBI in 69 games.

As a 21 year old in AA, Kubel went .377/.453/.667 with 24 XBH in 37 games, then went on to hit .343/.398/.560, with 44 XBH in 90 games at AAA after turning 22.

Arcia is going to be a 22 year old in AAA this year (at some point). Do you think he's going to put up the best numbers of his MiLB career (outside of his E-Town season) in Rochester this year? Seems like you think this is a given. And do you also see how the age difference you're trying portray in comparing numbers isn't actually real? They were both 21 when at Fort Myers (and yes I'm aware Oz's #'s there are better), but you're asking for a lot if you expect Arcia to continue that trend at AAA, as he already has not exceeded Kubel's AA numbers.

But you are right, I don't consider Arcia to quite be on the level of hitting prospect that Kubel was. This is not a knock at all, as I agree that he's probably going to be very good!

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 03:36 PM
I see it as this:

As a 21 year old in AA for half a season, Arcia went .328/.398/.557, with 35 XBH RBI in 69 games.

As a 21 year old in AA, Kubel went .377/.453/.667 with 24 XBH in 37 games, then went on to hit .343/.398/.560, with 44 XBH in 90 games at AAA after turning 22.

Arcia is going to be a 22 year old in AAA this year (at some point). Do you think he's going to put up the best numbers of his MiLB career (outside of his E-Town season) in Rochester this year? Seems like you think this is a given. And do you also see how the age difference you're trying portray in comparing numbers isn't actually real? They were both 21 when at Fort Myers (and yes I'm aware Oz's #'s there are better), but you're asking for a lot if you expect Arcia to continue that trend at AAA, as he already has not exceeded Kubel's AA numbers.

But you are right, I don't consider Arcia to quite be on the level of hitting prospect that Kubel was. This is not a knock at all, as I agree that he's probably going to be very good!

Except that you're using Kubel's "age 21 and a few weeks into age 22" season against Arcia's "I just turned 21 a few weeks ago" season. You know as well as anyone here that age does matter with prospects. It matters a lot. Guys are still growing muscle, particularly in their early 20s. A full 12 months may (or may not) do a lot for Arcia's swing, which is already wicked-fast.

Right now, Arcia has outperformed Kubel's numbers and has done it at a higher level than Jason if you lock-step their progress through the minors by age. Now, the real test will be how he compares to Kubel's breakout season at age 22.

The thing is, he already came close to doing it as a 21 year old.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 03:37 PM
Arcia is going to be a 22 year old in AAA this year (at some point). Do you think he's going to put up the best numbers of his MiLB career (outside of his E-Town season) in Rochester this year? Seems like you think this is a given. And do you also see how the age difference you're trying portray in comparing numbers isn't actually real? They were both 21 when at Fort Myers (and yes I'm aware Oz's #'s there are better), but you're asking for a lot if you expect Arcia to continue that trend at AAA, as he already has not exceeded Kubel's AA numbers.
The point is this: Prior to Kubel's 2004 season, Kubel wasn't a top prospect either. Not top 100. Nothing. As a prospect, he was loiwer rankings-wise than Arcia is at this age. Kubel was an under the radar, mid-round draft pick who hit well in the low minors. Then he had his big year, and jumped to the top 20, and deservedly so. But it wasn't like his AA-AAA breakout was anything anyone knew was a foregone conclusion, and if they say so, they're a liar.

Maybe Arcia keeps the ball rolling at AAA, maybe he regresses, or maybe he exceeds Kubel's numbers. We don't know because, again, he hasn't played that comparable season yet. To use the "why isn't he a top 20 prospect" argument is a bit disingenuous, because the player you are claiming he's compared to in an "overblown" manner wasn't considered a prospect of any repute until AFTER the same-age season Arcia is about to play out. If you want to go by the "rankings" note, then Arcia's ahead of the game there, too, by beginning to show up in "Top 100" lists a year earlier than Kubel did.

I don't think anyone is banking on Arcia putting up the "best numbers of his career" as he goes forward, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility, the same way Kubel found a way to have a huge year after a tepid year at Ft. Myers.

whosafraidofluigirussolo
02-06-2013, 03:56 PM
I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 03:58 PM
I'm just trying to show you that if you "lock-step" their progress through the Minors, they are going to end up at AAA at the same exact time. And yes age matters, but I totally believe you're making more out of their "1 year age difference" (which isn't actually 1 exact year in a lock-step fashion in their cases) than should be. If Kubel was 24/25 at AA/AAA, I would agree with your assessment, but that's not what's going on here, both were young for their levels. And as far as progressing goes, fact is both are going to end up going from the GCL to AAA in 5 seasons of MiLB ball, and while Kubel absolutely destroyed AA/AAA, Arcia hasn't hit AAA yet, and was below Kubel in AA numbers. What do you put more stock in, Rookie leagues and A-ball, or AA and AAA?!?!?

Kubel was 100% the best hitting prospect the Twins had coming up at this frame of time in their respective MiLB progressions, and while the same could likely be said about Arcia, he's not at the level Kubel displayed. I think this is just a case of Oz is a guy you guys know and have followed, therefore you believe more in him, and there's nothing wrong with that, I'm just trying to be the realist here.

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 04:46 PM
I'm just trying to show you that if you "lock-step" their progress through the Minors, they are going to end up at AAA at the same exact time. And yes age matters, but I totally believe you're making more out of their "1 year age difference" (which isn't actually 1 exact year in a lock-step fashion in their cases) than should be. If Kubel was 24/25 at AA/AAA, I would agree with your assessment, but that's not what's going on here, both were young for their levels. And as far as progressing goes, fact is both are going to end up going from the GCL to AAA in 5 seasons of MiLB ball, and while Kubel absolutely destroyed AA/AAA, Arcia hasn't hit AAA yet, and was below Kubel in AA numbers. What do you put more stock in, Rookie leagues and A-ball, or AA and AAA?!?!?

Kubel was 100% the best hitting prospect the Twins had coming up at this frame of time in their respective MiLB progressions, and while the same could likely be said about Arcia, he's not at the level Kubel displayed. I think this is just a case of Oz is a guy you guys know and have followed, therefore you believe more in him, and there's nothing wrong with that, I'm just trying to be the realist here.

I followed Kubel through the minors as well. I remember when he went down in the AFL and how bummed the forum was about it. The Twins needed that offense.

And their adjusted age difference is about 350 days. Close enough to a year to call it that. Kubel started his age 22 season in AA and had about 150 ABs there. There's a good chance Arcia starts off his age 22 season in AAA (and even if he doesn't, Arcia already has 300 PAs in AA that Kubel didn't begin to receive until the start of that age 22 season).

Again, Kubel was a marginal prospect until he completed his age 22 season. Considering how Arcia has out hit him at a younger age, I think the Kubel comp is a fair one and that "Jason Kubel Light" is the bad comp, considering that age 21 Jason Kubel was not exceptionally good at baseball, nor was he highly regarded by analysts. You keep talking about how Kubel was the top Twins hitting prospect but I don't see why that's relevant. Yeah, he should have been the top hitting prospect because he was the last decent hitting prospect to come through the system until this current batch of hitters we see today. The Twins had already promoted Hunter, Cuddyer, Morneau, Mauer, etc. and Span was never much of a prospect until he suddenly broke out of nowhere. The Twins haven't had many decent hitters in the minors since 2004. It's not surprising that Arcia is overshadowed in a farm system that contains guys like Hicks, Buxton, and Sano... Just as Kubel was overshadowed by Mauer and Morneau during his early years in the system.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 04:47 PM
he's not at the level Kubel displayed.
Well, as long as you count Kubel's seasons from age 22 on. You know, the ones Arcia hasn't played yet. Because up to this point in their careers, side-by-side, Arcia has been just as good. If Arcia hits his AA numbers at AAA, he'll have OPSed within 3 points of Kubel's breakout AAA stats. He doesn't have to improve to compare to Kubel, he just needs to hit at AAA the way he did at AA and he's right on par with Kubel's numbers.

This has nothing to do with him being "the one I know and have followed". Many of these guys on this board were over at the ESPN boards having glowing discussions of Kubel during 2004 and were devastated to see him go down with his AFL injury. People are high on Arcia, because he's done Kubel-like things at the same time in his career that Kubel did them. At this point in his career, Kubel broke out it the high levels the following season. Arcia will have the chance to do the same in a couple months. The limits of the time-space continuum aren't something I hold against Arcia just yet.

[Edit: I walked away mid-post and then finished and see Brock made many of the same points. I wasn't intending to parrot him as much as I ended up doing.]

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 05:41 PM
Well, as long as you count Kubel's seasons from age 22 on. You know, the ones Arcia hasn't played yet. Because up to this point in their careers, side-by-side, Arcia has been just as good. If Arcia hits his AA numbers at AAA, he'll have OPSed within 3 points of Kubel's breakout AAA stats. He doesn't have to improve to compare to Kubel, he just needs to hit at AAA the way he did at AA and he's right on par with Kubel's numbers.


I guess in my world hitting .328/.398/.557 at 21 does not equal hitting .377/.453/.667 at (mostly) age 21 at the same level. Both are great, but not "just as good", one is considerably "greater". Career number wise, I'll agree with you, but Kubel still had a significant spike in his peak at the higher levels (compared to Arcia's "peak" at this point being in Rookie ball), while Arcia has been essentially static. Depending on who you talk too, one of those paths may be considered better than the other, but I'll take the extreme peaks of Kubel at AA/AAA. Do note however, this very well could change if Arcia continues to mash at AAA.

And again, in reference to their ages, look at the timeframe of when they were the specific ages at the specific levels. I'll just reiterate I don't buy the "Arcia is better because he's a year younger at level x" argument, because it's just not true for where Arcia is now. Arcia may start in AAA this year, which means he will be 21 for almost exactly a month at AAA if he starts there, and Kubel would have turned 22 but a few weeks before reaching AAA.

This is incredibly insignificant to me, and no different than trying to make this same comparison to a couple of players drafted out of high school at age 18, but happen to have birthdays a few months apart. Would you make the "They're both at AA, and the younger one doesn't have as good of numbers even though they are both good, but he's younger so he's the better prospect" argument in this case?! No, I know you wouldn't. But that's honestly how I read it. And maybe that's my problem, but I still haven't been convinced otherwise.

At least I know we can agree Arcia is the Twins best pure hitting prospect right now, right?! q;)

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 06:36 PM
And again, in reference to their ages, look at the timeframe of when they were the specific ages at the specific levels. I'll just reiterate I don't buy the "Arcia is better because he's a year younger at level x" argument, because it's just not true for where Arcia is now. Arcia may start in AAA this year, which means he will be 21 for almost exactly a month at AAA if he starts there, and Kubel would have turned 22 but a few weeks before reaching AAA.

Dude, c'mon. They both have birthdays in May. When Arcia turned 21, he was on his way to AA after a short stint in A ball. When Kubel turned 21, he was still in A ball and would be for the rest of the season. Arcia spent the bulk of his age 21 season in AA while Kubel was still in A ball.

A year difference. Yes, Kubel progressed a lot in his age 22 season but Arcia hasn't even played his age 22 season yet and already has 300 PAs in AA.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 07:11 PM
Dude, c'mon. They both have birthdays in May. When Arcia turned 21, he was on his way to AA after a short stint in A ball. When Kubel turned 21, he was still in A ball and would be for the rest of the season. Arcia spent the bulk of his age 21 season in AA while Kubel was still in A ball.

A year difference. Yes, Kubel progressed a lot in his age 22 season but Arcia hasn't even played his age 22 season yet and already has 300 PAs in AA.
How many times does this need to be said? He's using different seasons in the development curve. I'd type something longer out myself, but I'm running late for darts.

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 07:12 PM
Again, Kubel was a marginal prospect until he completed his age 22 season. Considering how Arcia has out hit him at a younger age, I think the Kubel comp is a fair one and that "Jason Kubel Light" is the bad comp, considering that age 21 Jason Kubel was not exceptionally good at baseball, nor was he highly regarded by analysts.

One more note, I know of quite a few people who would disagree in a major way with this sequence of statements. He was a Top 10 Twins prospect for several years, so there were plenty of people out there that saw good things in him.

As for the "dude c'mon", I guess we'll have to agree we see it differently. I think you're making a mountain (Oz is better prospect) out of a mole hill (because he reached AA less than a season's worth of time sooner).

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 07:17 PM
One more note, I know of quite a few people who would disagree in a major way with this sequence of statements. He was a Top 10 Twins prospect for several years, so there were plenty of people out there that saw good things in him.

As for the "dude c'mon", I guess we'll have to agree we see it differently. I think you're making a mountain (Oz is better prospect) out of a mole hill (because he reached AA less than a season's worth of time sooner).

I've never said Oswaldo was the better prospect. I said pre-injury Kubel was a good comp and thought "Jason Kubel Light" was not an accurate comparison. That's how I entered this argument.

And again, when Kubel was higher up in the Twins farm, the system was mediocre. He wasn't competing in a system that had Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Gibson, et al in it. Once Mauer and Morneau cleared the Major League roster, Kubel was the only decent guy left standing. His competition for "top 10 prospect" status was... not fierce.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-06-2013, 07:39 PM
I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B! :)

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 07:42 PM
I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B! :)

Play second, bat second.

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 07:59 PM
I've never said Oswaldo was the better prospect. I said pre-injury Kubel was a good comp and thought "Jason Kubel Light" was not an accurate comparison. That's how I entered this argument.

And again, when Kubel was higher up in the Twins farm, the system was mediocre. He wasn't competing in a system that had Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Gibson, et al in it. Once Mauer and Morneau cleared the Major League roster, Kubel was the only decent guy left standing. His competition for "top 10 prospect" status was... not fierce.

OK, I can agree with your semantics in regards to "Jason Kubel Light." Mine was explained right before I threw that name out: "was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet."

The main thing is I don't see Arcia reaching Kubel's pre-injury peak, which is going to be decided this year, in the same leagues, at the same age.

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 08:02 PM
I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B! :)

Sorry, I apologize by doing this for us all: :banghead:

You hit the Rosario comp right on the head of the nail.

Brock Beauchamp
02-06-2013, 08:09 PM
As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

Which is why I said "when Kubel was higher up in the system". Nearly everyone on that list worth mentioning (minus Garza and Liriano) was promoted well before Kubel hit the bigs. Span wasn't a top prospect until... Well, ever, really. He proved his worth in the bigs and became a good player there. Bartlett was... Well, Bartlett. A decent player but not the type of prospect who couldn't be ignored (as evidenced by the team's quite extensive attempts to ignore him).

Mark_RM
02-06-2013, 08:18 PM
I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?
As a guy who gets Insider for Law & Karabell I can paraphrase...He was the best pitcher in AZ fall league this year with a fastball sitting 92-94 he can contol down in the zone, a very good slider that works against rightys and leftys, and a solid change. Thinks there's a good chance he's the Twins' best pitcher by the end of the year (innings limits aside ). I also remember him saying on a podcast this fall that he's throwing as hard as he ever did, ditched the curve, and has a much better slider post surgery.

Steve Lein
02-06-2013, 08:48 PM
Bartlett was... Well, Bartlett. A decent player but not the type of prospect who couldn't be ignored (as evidenced by the team's quite extensive attempts to ignore him).

I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them!

My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

FrodaddyG
02-06-2013, 10:45 PM
As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?
And by the time Kubel became an actual on-the-radar "prospect" (after the breakout 2004 season), Mauer has already started his first season in the bigs and blown out his knee. Morneau also saw half a season in the bigs in 2004, so by the time 2005 rolled around he was off the "prospect" list. Mauer was still only a "prospect" in the sense that he didn't play enough games in 2004 before he got hurt, and rolled over into 2005 as the #1 prospect in the game.

So when you say he was the "best hitter" on a lot of those lists, only the ones from 2005 on would count, and he was competing primarily with the likes of pre-figuring-it-out Span and Cuddyer. The Twins weren't exactly loaded with impact hitters once Mauer and Morneau "graduated" after 2004, unless you were high on the likes of Michael Restovich and Terry Tiffee.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-06-2013, 11:22 PM
I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.

The reason I had Kubel as the better prospect in comparison was because scouts (at least BAmerica) had him as a top 20 prospect (#17). Statistically Arcia looks slightly better, but Kubel mashed AAA at 22 leading up to that ranking. Arcia could also do so (this will be his 22 year old season), but we'll have to wait. Interesting enough though, both had their worst minor league seasons at Ft. Myers (.760s OPS) by a significant margin. Giving more proof that it's tough for batters.

"In fact, I'd say Rosario is probably a 1-2 tool player, but the rest of his tools are near in line with league average which makes him a very good prospect."

He has a credible margin in every department. He has potential in all 5 categories.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-06-2013, 11:23 PM
I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them!

My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

Where are these people you speak of?

The Wise One
02-06-2013, 11:30 PM
Your post was funny and I loved it! The Florida, old people connection simply genius!

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

The Wise One
02-06-2013, 11:37 PM
Where are these people you speak of?

On this board, one imagined friend will do. Bartlett was viewed as a good shortstop that was traded away. That value solidified after he had a couple good seasons after he left. I don't ever recall anyone fawning over him as a minor leaguer. They people also forget he only had two good seasons once he left.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
02-06-2013, 11:42 PM
I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B! :)

This comp isn't very good. I think my Kubel/Arcia one is better. Span's minor league history is pretty unimpressive and he never produced anything close to what Rosario has. Eddie will have much more power than Denard and I'm not just saying that because of how I gushed about it earlier. The slugging differences are above .100. Span hit 1 HR in Beloit and prior and Rosario has 39 in that span (pun was intended). Rosario is a much better prospect than Span ever was.

FrodaddyG
02-07-2013, 12:58 AM
Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.
I may not have a thesaurus in front of me, but as it seems, "wise" and "witty" are not synonyms.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-07-2013, 06:21 AM
This comp isn't very good. I think my Kubel/Arcia one is better. Span's minor league history is pretty unimpressive and he never produced anything close to what Rosario has. Eddie will have much more power than Denard and I'm not just saying that because of how I gushed about it earlier. The slugging differences are above .100. Span hit 1 HR in Beloit and prior and Rosario has 39 in that span (pun was intended). Rosario is a much better prospect than Span ever was.

Statistic-wise, you are right. But the "statistical-scouting vs observational-scouting" debate will never end.

Watching Rosario swing a bat, he looks a lot like DSpan.

Brock Beauchamp
02-07-2013, 07:52 AM
Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

3217

3rd Inning Stretch
02-07-2013, 08:22 AM
I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?
If this is not allowed on this site, please let me know and I can remove...Checked the FAQs and saw nothing about not pasting pay site info.

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

FrodaddyG
02-07-2013, 08:59 AM
If this is not allowed on this site, please let me know and I can remove...Checked the FAQs and saw nothing about not pasting pay site info.

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.
I'm by no means a voice of authority for the site, but this won't fly.

PseudoSABR
02-07-2013, 09:40 AM
edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD. Fascists!

3rd Inning Stretch
02-07-2013, 10:50 AM
sorry, as I said wasnt aware, and its not in the FAQ

FrodaddyG
02-07-2013, 11:15 AM
sorry, as I said wasnt aware, and its not in the FAQ
See the "ESPN affiliate" bit at the top? What are the chances that ESPN would smile on an affiliated site giving away their pay info for nothing?

drjim
02-07-2013, 12:09 PM
Keith Law said in his chat yesterday that he encourages quoting of blurbs (with links) on sites like this to encourage discussion and exposure. Full cutting and pasting is an obvious no go.

3rd Inning Stretch
02-07-2013, 04:12 PM
See the "ESPN affiliate" bit at the top? What are the chances that ESPN would smile on an affiliated site giving away their pay info for nothing?

I did, which is exactly why I put my disclaimer in there. .

diehardtwinsfan
02-07-2013, 04:30 PM
I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.

Prospecting seems to be as nothing more than a fascination with the new girl at the bar for no other reason than that she is new. That's how a guy like Buxton ends up getting to be the #2 overall propsect of this team from a weak class despite being incredibly raw and not exactly dominating in rookie ball.

Arcia has gotten the job done at every level, and as you mentioned, he put up stats that ranged from very good, to video game numbers. He has the tools as well, but people are down on him because they know him... at least that's all I can think of.

He should be the consensus number 2 propsect on this team, and I think a strong case can be made to put him ahead of Sano. I see no reason to think he cannot be an all star in the big leagues.

Badsmerf
02-08-2013, 11:38 AM
I have Arcia as the number 1 prospect on this team, and it really isn't close for me. How in the **** can you make post after post about Kubel being a better prospect than Arcia??? Look at the ****ing facts man, all this bull**** you're posting about people glowing over Kubel are so far off you're obviously ignorant about his minor league career. Kubel was an above average prospect at the same age Arcia is now and didn't deserve a huge top 20 ranking when he got it. John Sickles had him as a B ranking, while he has Arcia as a B+. Kubel was also the #8 prospect in the system prior to his breakout season, which again, happened at the same age Arcia will be durring 2013. Is it weird you're the only one posting this nonsense? What other evidence do you need?

Arcia is getting overshadowed by Sano right now in a big way. Sano has the best power bat in the minors and plays 3b. I rate Arcia higher because I don't think Sano will stay at 3b and he has contact issues. By comparison when Kubel was thought of so highly he had J.D. Durbin, Jesse Crain, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Jason Bartlett, Trevor Plouffe.... ect. So... yes, the system was incredibly weak while Kubel was breaking out. Almost any of the current top 10 prospects on the Twins would have been in the top 3 for that year, and receiving much more attention.

To be fair, Kubel was a better player prior to his knee injury. Had it not been for that his career would have gone much differently. I just find it incredibly irritating that you refuse to acknowledge age in relation to performance/level. Arcia is a better prospect than Kubel was end of story. The only evidence you have to argue is one year's prospect list which has Kubel at a higher position than Arcia is in this year's list (which again, Kubel is a year older). This is the same type of list that had Delmon Young as a #1 or #2 prospect for 4 years despite his lack of production and serious flaws. I'm done now. Sorry to everyone else for beating the horse.

Turd Furgeson
02-08-2013, 12:22 PM
Regarding Sano vs Arcia, if Sano ends up moving off of third base would he really have less defensive value than Arcia does now? If he does, it will be slight. If Sano can play a respectable third base, he'll likely have much more defensive value than Arcia.

Sano does have contact issues, but Arcia has severe power issues compared to Sano. Most scouting reports I've read state that Sano has the hit tool to utilize his power. He probably will not ever be a .300 hitter but he could be a .270 hitter, combine that with a good on base percentage and potential 40 home run power and it should be pretty clear why Sano is listed unanimously as the much better prospect.

Also, it should be noted that right handed hitters actually take a bit longer to develop than left handed hitters, so you should take that into account.

ashburyjohn
02-08-2013, 12:40 PM
Keith Law said in his chat yesterday that he encourages quoting of blurbs (with links) on sites like this to encourage discussion and exposure. Full cutting and pasting is an obvious no go.

And I'm not sure of the legal distinction between copyrighted material and pay-sites, but the fair-use doctrine seems like it ought to cover a brief excerpt that has correct attribution.

diehardtwinsfan
02-08-2013, 03:14 PM
I'll take a guy with a legit shot of hitting .300 with 30 home runs over the guy with the legit shot of hitting .250 with 40 hrs. That's a lot of hits that you are taking away to get an extra 10 home runs.

I'm also not sure how Arcia qualifies as having "severe power issues" as compared to Sano. Yes, Sano could be a perennial 40 HR guy... assuming he fixes his contact issues, but Arcia could be a perennial 30 hr guy who has no contact issues. Both are on pace to reach the bigs at the same time. Arcia has the tools and much fewer question marks at this point. While I don't quibble too much about Sano being #1, the idea that Arcia is not in that discussion is rather strange. If Arcia is not #1, he should be the consensus #2 on any list.

gunnarthor
02-08-2013, 03:32 PM
Badsmerf, I don't think it's insulting to suggest that Arcia is similar to Kubel but that Kubel was the better prospect. I think that's true. Arcia might become the better prospect and you might argue that Arcia is the better 21 year old prospect. Arcia has never reached Kubel's highest BA ranking but is still young. But Kubel, even before his power developed, walked about as often as he struck out. That's a harder skill than power. When his power showed up in 04, he rocketed up the prospect ladder. Arcia has Kubel power but hasn't shown that plate discipline yet.

Additionally, Klaw had Arcia 5, BP has him 4, Mayo has him 5, BA has him 3, Sickels has him 2. Those 5 professionals avg Arcia as our #4 prospect right now. Hard to see how he's better than Sano, as you would suggest.

Steve Lein
02-08-2013, 03:33 PM
Arcia is a better prospect than Kubel was end of story. The only evidence you have to argue is one year's prospect list which has Kubel at a higher position than Arcia is in this year's list (which again, Kubel is a year older).

I stopped arguing because the realization finally came that we were arguing different points against each other, not differing opinions on the same point:

Brock and others are arguing that Arcia, by his current age, is a better prospect than Kubel when looking at where Kubel was at the same age. I don't really disagree with this, but...

My argument is that Kubel became the better prospect overall when it comes to where his "peak" was on these lists, not accounting in any form for age, and I'm talking about top prospect lists that encompass all of the minor leagues, not just the Twins. Kubel made the top 20 at his peak when his knee was blown out. Arcia is just now cracking Top 100's (Law has him 59, Mayo 93, and BA and BP didn't have him on their lists last year, while Law had him at 85).

Then we get to the point that in a season where Kubel was 21/22 years old, he demolished AA/AAA. Guess what age Arcia is going to be this year at potentially, AA and AAA? He's going to be 21/22. Yes Arcia finished the season where he turned 21 years old in AA, whereas Kubel finished the season he turned 21 years old in A+. But they are going to be at the same point this year for their age 22 seasons, and if you expect Arcia, let alone ANY other prospect in the minors to match what Kubel did there, you're expecting a lot.

It's great that Arcia has been better than Kubel from the rookies leagues and through A+, but I have to believe we all agree that success at AA/AAA should matter more, right? Even with the great numbers Arcia put up last year at 21 at AA, he's not on Kubel's level for me (as a prospect in the regard discussed above) and I don't put nearly the same stock in performance for less than a years worth of age difference that they are in these time frames, and will finish this upcoming season as.

They're both going to (likely) have made their MLB debut at age 22, so what happens to this argument then?

Edit: And as I post this I see Gunnarthor basically explained the point I'm trying to make here, probably better than I did. Thanks for that.

Badsmerf
02-08-2013, 06:18 PM
Sorry I blew up.

That is an incredible hypothetical to argue, you have to see that. Arguing a guy had a better prospect status after a break-out year that occurred in a season that is yet to be played by another player age-wise is.... well.... not arguable. What "we" are arguing, is that you can't say Kubel was a better prospect when Arcia isn't finished in the minors and Kubel's highest ranking occurred when he was a year older than Arcia currently is. Add to that Arcia has posted superior results comparatively age-wise and many will agree, at this same age (which is how you compare prospects) Arcia is further along. Let Arcia play through this season and we will see where his ranking is and his results. Then you can argue that Kubel was better. Now, its just not a valid argument.

You stated once that age doesn't matter. It does, and in a big way. Age is the only way to evaluate how much room for development a player has. Sometimes players develop faster than others true, but this is an exception rather than the rule. Most players (most humans) go through a similar physical development. When a player has the same amount of success as another player at a lower level, the player at the higher level is the better prospect since they are competing at a higher level. Example: Aaron Hicks. If he had mediocre results AGAIN last season he would have dropped out of my top 10. Arcia is a year younger and clearly outplayed him at the same level. I can't believe the argument Hick's defense will outweigh the offensive difference. Right now, I believe Arcia will be a better player than Hicks.

As for the discussion of Arcia vs. Sano. Yes, if Sano has to move off 3b his prospect status takes a hit. Simply because it doesn't take too much to play 1b. Arcia's defense is pretty good. The Kubel comparisons have obviously painted a poor picture of him. From what I've read, he will be an above-average corner OF. So, Arcia will make better contact, get on-base about the same (with more hits which is more valuable), play better defense. The only edge Sano has right now is possible positional importance and power. Plus, Sano hasn't seen the higher levels yet so everything is based on "tools". Just because I believe Arcia is a better prospect right now doesn't mean Sano wont end up the better player. I have a grip with prospect rankings because I feel they put too much emphasis on tools and ceilings rather than where a player actually is. This is why so many "top" prospects fail so horribly.

PseudoSABR
02-09-2013, 12:19 AM
My argument is that Kubel became the better prospect overall when it comes to where his "peak" was on these lists, not accounting in any form for age, and I'm talking about top prospect lists that encompass all of the minor leagues, not just the TwinsWell if your point is that simple, it's hard to see where anyone could be led astray.