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View Full Version : Article: TD Top Prospects: #10 Max Kepler



Nick Nelson
02-03-2013, 11:43 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1349-TD-Top-Prospects-10-Max-Kepler

Chance
02-04-2013, 09:07 AM
He'll move to first. I have nothing to base this on but that he has made some starts there (so I have heard on here in the past) but I do believe that he will be moved to improve 1st in our minors. Would anyone have a problem with him at first?

johnnydakota
02-04-2013, 09:25 AM
we have several players projected as dh or 1b typesin our system all ready, yes i understand we have several outfielders also , but there are 3 outfielder spots and only 2, 1b/dh spots

Steve Lein
02-04-2013, 09:57 AM
I love Kepler. I've said this before, but he's the first guy where seeing him play in-person changed the view I had of him in my head from everything I'd read and the stats he had put up. I saw a player who was far better than what those things told me, and I suspect will be much higher on this list than #10 next year.

Check out this double to the opposite field from ST last year: Max Kepler lines a double down the opposite field line (video) on Twitpic (http://www.twitpic.com/8zswq4)

He was playing on the Beloit roster, and in the 3 or 4 games I watched, he was their best in-game hitter by far, and I was actually very disappointed with what I saw from Sano and Rosario (and was very surprised Kepler didn't play at all with Beloit during the year).


He'll move to first. I have nothing to base this on but that he has made some starts there (so I have heard on here in the past) but I do believe that he will be moved to improve 1st in our minors. Would anyone have a problem with him at first?

He played 1B on his team in Germany, and I think he's played a few games at 1B in the minors out of necessity (like less than 5 games total). He is still getting bigger, and isn't as fast as he used to be, but I don't see a move back to 1B. I'm guessing LF will be his home, with all that said, he's still plenty fast.

FrodaddyG
02-04-2013, 10:03 AM
He'll move to first. I have nothing to base this on but that he has made some starts there (so I have heard on here in the past) but I do believe that he will be moved to improve 1st in our minors. Would anyone have a problem with him at first?
Yes. He has ridiculous natural athleticism. There's no way that should be wasted on the least athletic position on the field unless absolutely necessary. I'm guessing he's played first here and there simply as a way to get him into a crowded lineup. No way that becomes full-time when he can possibly be a top notch defensive outfielder.

lightfoot789
02-04-2013, 10:19 AM
He has the ability and frame to play 1st, but he is too good of an outfielder to move any time soon. Besides the Twins have two very solid prospects in Vargas and DJ Hicks at 1B / DH. The Twins will end up trading some of their OF prospects in the next year or 2. They have 6 or 7 potentially solid regulars and some solid 4th OF prospects: A. Hicks - B. Buxton - A. Oswaldo - E. Rosario (?) - J. Benson - M. Kepler - A Walker - N. Roberts - R. Jimenez - JD Williams - A Morales - D. Ortiz - J. Pineda. All that said - Kepler will stay and man an OF spot (LF)

Seth Stohs
02-04-2013, 10:34 AM
I think Left Field will be his position as well. He played CF the whole Elizabethton season... until they brought Byron Buxton up and Kepler moved over to LF. I do think it's smart to continue to give him work at 1B as well, just in case there is a need there sometime in the future.

It will be interesting to see if the Twins (or if he forces the Twins to) add him to the 40 man roster following the upcoming season.

righty8383
02-04-2013, 11:16 AM
Seth, would Sano and Kepler be rule 5 eligable after this season if not put on 40 man? Or would it be next season?

lightfoot789
02-04-2013, 11:33 AM
Seth - As the AA roster (New Britain) has no outfielders listed on its website roster - do you think that some of the lower level outfielders in Rookie - A and High A have a chance of moving up an extra level if impressive in Spring Training. How do they plan to fill some of the empty roster spots at these various levels? Could Nate Roberts go to AA or Kepler or Walker (older) go to High A or even a kid like Jonathan Murphy move from GCL up to A or High A because he is an older prospect ? (until draft and/or incoming OF prospects shape things out)

What happens to those vacant roster spots within the next 2 months?

Rosterman
02-04-2013, 11:39 AM
Kepler doesn't have to be added to the 40-man roster until 2015 at the earliest. See him making a September call-up that year. Maybe repositioning himself in 2016 like Parmelee now, and making the team fulltime in 2017.

lightfoot789
02-04-2013, 11:44 AM
Who will play where in Spring Training & Who will play where on various Opening Days?

AAA = Bigley & Ramirez only (waiting for Hicks / Arcia and/or Benson)
AA = ????????
A+ = Ray; Morales; Goncaives; Rams; Ortiz;
A = Leachman; Roberts; JD Williams;
R = Kepler; Buxton; Walker; Jimenez;
Finally - as they possibly call up Hicks; Arcia; and/or Benson in May/June - what will be the trickle up effect for lower level OFers in your opinion?

nfisch22
02-04-2013, 12:12 PM
I would rather him stay in the outfield. First I think he's too athletic to not keep in the outfield. Second what is he, a year or two behind Sano? I think long term Sano ends up at first and this would essentially be blocking Kepler's path to MN. Granted there are still things that could go wrong with either one of these prospects

pajavorski
02-04-2013, 12:20 PM
A move to first would definitely diminish his value. I am no expert but shouldn't a move to first be a last resort move in AAA if his defense was just not developing as well as his bat?

Oldgoat_MN
02-04-2013, 12:26 PM
He'll move to first. I have nothing to base this on but that he has made some starts there (so I have heard on here in the past) but I do believe that he will be moved to improve 1st in our minors. Would anyone have a problem with him at first?

Um, maybe Kennys Vargas?

Seth Stohs
02-04-2013, 12:31 PM
Who will play where in Spring Training & Who will play where on various Opening Days?

AAA = Bigley & Ramirez only (waiting for Hicks / Arcia and/or Benson)
AA = ????????
A+ = Ray; Morales; Goncaives; Rams; Ortiz;
A = Leachman; Roberts; JD Williams;
R = Kepler; Buxton; Walker; Jimenez;
Finally - as they possibly call up Hicks; Arcia; and/or Benson in May/June - what will be the trickle up effect for lower level OFers in your opinion?


Baseball America's book says Arcia will start the season in New Britain. But the Twins have lots of outfielders. Besides Bigley and Ramirez in Rochester, they also have Clete Thomas, Brandon Boggs, Hicks, Arcia, Benson. Roberts could move all the way to AA. Ray will. Morales most likely will. Rams likely needs to get to AA this year. Tons of options.

lightfoot789
02-04-2013, 12:46 PM
Baseball America's book says Arcia will start the season in New Britain. But the Twins have lots of outfielders. Besides Bigley and Ramirez in Rochester, they also have Clete Thomas, Brandon Boggs, Hicks, Arcia, Benson. Roberts could move all the way to AA. Ray will. Morales most likely will. Rams likely needs to get to AA this year. Tons of options.

Thanks - I forgot about Thomas and Boggs. Are they both considered fill ins until they call up Hicks and Benson or other prospects. Do they have a legit chance of staying within system?

Jeff P
02-04-2013, 12:56 PM
For those interested, milb.com had a nice article on Max last week. Excerpt:

Kepler was offered a tennis scholarship at the Steffi Graf Foundation at 7, but after competing intensely for three years, decided he preferred team sports to one-on-one competitions. When he stopped serving as a youth goalkeeper for Hertha Berlin at 11, baseball took center stage. With conflicting game schedules, Kepler had to choose one or the other.
"I played a little bit of everything. I just loved being active," said Kepler. "I wasn't the kind of kid that stayed at home. I just loved being outside, throwing balls, hitting balls. I picked up motions pretty easily.

Passport Prospects: Max Kepler | MiLB.com News | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball (http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130128&content_id=41226182&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb)

When does he need to be added to the 40 man? I thought it was after 2014.

Jeff

Monkeypaws
02-04-2013, 06:08 PM
nice write-up.

I feel this kid has an experience deficit, growing up in a land where baseball is pretty much a novelty. Then he left home in a big way and at a very tender age.

That shows to me that he has maturity. Repeating E-Town is okay as long as you shred like he did.

I hope/expect his deficit is now eliminated, and he will progress at a normal level.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-04-2013, 07:22 PM
Everything roster-related I say here can be found here (http://twinsdaily.com/section/901-roster-payroll.html), whose existence is still surprising people.

The outfielders I have pegged for AA are: Arcia, Roberts, Ray, Morales and Rams. While I think it's possible someone could start down here and move up quickly (like Mastroianni did last year), these are guys I anticipate will start in New Britain. When Arcia moves up, Danny Ortiz will take his place. Could Joe Benson find himself here again to start the year? I wouldn't rule that out either. That would allow Hicks and Benson to play CF everyday if neither make the team.

Kepler was signed in July of 2009, so he'll have to be protected next November. Short of an absolute implosion, I see very little chance that Kepler won't be a 40-man addition. You can see all seven guys I pegged as "additions" on the above link as well.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-04-2013, 07:27 PM
Kepler doesn't have to be added to the 40-man roster until 2015 at the earliest. See him making a September call-up that year. Maybe repositioning himself in 2016 like Parmelee now, and making the team fulltime in 2017.

Arcia was signed 7/4/07 and added to the 40-man in November of 2011. (Younger than 19 at signing, he's eligible for the 5th Rule 5 after signing... 07, 08, 09, 10 and the fifth is 11, so he was added before that.)

Kepler was signed 7/11/09. 09, 10, 11, 12... the fifth will be in Dec 13, so he'll need to be added in November of 2013.

I have read conflicting reports about when Sano will need to be added, but as near as I can tell, signing in October of 09 instead of July, doesn't change when he'll need to be protected. (2013 as well.)

Jeff P
02-04-2013, 10:47 PM
Thanks for the info on the 40 man Jeremy, very helpful.

ND-Fan
02-04-2013, 11:30 PM
I have a question somewhat off topic in all the prospects list for Twins i don't see anything about Nate Roberts the kid that did so well in Arizona fall league and was
talked about MLB last fall. Is he not hot prospect for the Twins and if not why did they
send him to Arizona fall league usually thats for young talent not to far away from reaching the major leagues. I would appreciate some information on him and what were twins doing with him if he's not ready to move up the ladder.

kab21
02-05-2013, 09:26 AM
Most think that Nate Roberts is a nice potential 4th OF'er. it is a little frustrating that he hasn't been promoted at least one more level.

Kepler should absolutely stay in the OF until he gets close to the majors and 1B is the only place with an opening. I wouldn't be against having him play 15-20 games of 1B each year though. Moving IF to OF is a relatively easy transition. Moving from OF to IF (even 1B) is not as easy as some make it sound.

fairweather
02-05-2013, 09:50 AM
The kid is a great athlete. His bat speed is tremendous. I think he'll be a good one. He also could debut at a very young age which is rare with the Twins Org.

mnfanforlife
02-05-2013, 10:16 AM
I have a question somewhat off topic in all the prospects list for Twins i don't see anything about Nate Roberts the kid that did so well in Arizona fall league and was
talked about MLB last fall. Is he not hot prospect for the Twins and if not why did they
send him to Arizona fall league usually thats for young talent not to far away from reaching the major leagues. I would appreciate some information on him and what were twins doing with him if he's not ready to move up the ladder.

Roberts (http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/mnfanforlife/2420-mustaches-we-all-want-one.html) is a top-20 prospect in my opinion (http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/mnfanforlife/2423-david-arias-back.html), I have him at #11. And I follow the minor leagues religiously.

FrodaddyG
02-05-2013, 10:32 AM
Most think that Nate Roberts is a nice potential 4th OF'er. it is a little frustrating that he hasn't been promoted at least one more level.
If I had to guess, I'd say the inability to stay on the field more than half a season would be the primary concern for promotion.

drjim
02-05-2013, 09:15 PM
In their write-up today on players who just missed the Top 30, BA suggested that Roberts will start in AA. Fro is right though, health is what holds him back. Nice depth guy to have in the system and if he stays healthy has a good shot at eventually making the majors, but he really won't be much more than a 4th OF, not enough bat for a corner and not enough glove to be an everyday CF.

Shane Wahl
02-09-2013, 02:40 PM
Everything roster-related I say here can be found here (http://twinsdaily.com/section/901-roster-payroll.html), whose existence is still surprising people.

The outfielders I have pegged for AA are: Arcia, Roberts, Ray, Morales and Rams. While I think it's possible someone could start down here and move up quickly (like Mastroianni did last year), these are guys I anticipate will start in New Britain. When Arcia moves up, Danny Ortiz will take his place. Could Joe Benson find himself here again to start the year? I wouldn't rule that out either. That would allow Hicks and Benson to play CF everyday if neither make the team.

Kepler was signed in July of 2009, so he'll have to be protected next November. Short of an absolute implosion, I see very little chance that Kepler won't be a 40-man addition. You can see all seven guys I pegged as "additions" on the above link as well.

Hadn't noticed the WBC notes added in there. That's cool. Also, I really believe that your "prognosticationing" could be 100% accurate with that thing and where these guys are going to start. That would be an incredible feat.