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Nick Nelson
01-29-2013, 08:58 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1341-For-Better-or-Worse-Scott-Diamond

mcrow
01-29-2013, 09:42 PM
My take is that because he doesn't have dominant stuff, as indicated in his SO rate, his ERA will inflate a bit this year. Most players with the same rate as Diamond have ERAs in the 4-4.5 range so that's where I think he'll be. Hopefully closer to 4 than 4.5,

Thrylos
01-29-2013, 10:04 PM
the Twins’ de facto ace

Despite the fact that he is the only person of the 2012 rotation who is pretty much guaranteed a position in the 2013 rotation, this does not make him a "de facto ace".

Based on who the Twins signed so far, I'd put Harden, Pelfrey and Worley ahead of Diamond at this point...
So, the de charta ace is Harden who has about as many question marks as Diamond on returning to form following surgery...

We shall find who the de facto ace is after Spring Training. Heck, Gibson might be it, seems healthier than the bunch these days...

glunn
01-29-2013, 10:41 PM
I am hopeful that Diamond might still improve. His control last year was excellent, and if he can continue to deliver the ball to the low corners of the strike zone, then he might be able to channel Greg Maddux.

Nick Nelson
01-29-2013, 11:31 PM
Based on who the Twins signed so far, I'd put Harden, Pelfrey and Worley ahead of Diamond at this point...
So, the de charta ace is Harden who has about as many question marks as Diamond on returning to form following surgery
This is completely and utterly ridiculous.

jimbo92107
01-30-2013, 01:29 AM
What I saw from Scott Diamond last season was a lefty whose pitching motion was highly deceptive. Every delivery looked the same, yet he managed to change speeds, locate up, down, left, right, and also to control the depth of the pitch. He didn't blow people away with power, but he routinely kept hitters off balance, inducing just the kind of bad contact Twins coaches want.

Whether or not Diamond can build on last year's promise may well depend as much on the skill of his defense as on his own skills as a pitcher. He kept it off the sweet spot, but somebody still has to catch the ball.

FrodaddyG
01-30-2013, 03:18 AM
This is completely and utterly ridiculous.
You're overly surprised, given the source?

Miraclemat
01-30-2013, 06:18 AM
This is completely and utterly ridiculous.

that guy needs to stick to his dog walking job

70charger
01-30-2013, 07:04 AM
Diamond is probably due for a statistical regression, but count me among those who don't see any reason to think he'll blow up. I think eating 200 innings at a 4.00 clip is a nice expectation, and if he falls a bit short (say, 175 innings and 4.50), that's still a useful thing to have in most rotations in the majors, and especially the Twins'.

Diamond has nice mechanics that seem to make him less of a candidate for injury, and if he can keep hitters off balance by disguising his pitches well, there's no reason to think he can't be an effective control pitcher.

No, I don't think he repeats his out-of-his-mind first half performance of last year, but I think he'll be quite effective, actually.

mike wants wins
01-30-2013, 08:29 AM
The outfield defense leads me to believe he will be worse, as less fly balls are turned into outs.

Willihammer
01-30-2013, 08:59 AM
As long as he doesn't get the yips I think he'll be fine. Another sub 5% walk rate is key.

fairweather
01-30-2013, 09:17 AM
From what I've seen Diamond is the exception that proves the rule. Meaning that I understand all too well the statistical probability that Diamond will regress, but what I see is a guy who really understands the subtleties of pitching and I look for Diamond to be MN version of Mark Buehrle. Of course he could have a higher ERA but I think he will be a perennial 13+ game winner. Time will tell.

Badsmerf
01-30-2013, 09:26 AM
Twins got lucky with Diamond. I think he'll be a solid guy in the rotation for a long time. He will never be spectacular because he doesn't miss enough bats and will perform better with a better defense behind him. I think everyone knows his success depends on not walking guys and limiting HR's.

roger
01-30-2013, 09:35 AM
I read last year that the reason for his improvement in 2012 was the work he did during the offseason, 2011/2012. In addition to doing the normal physical work a pitcher will do, he watch a ton of film and studied his game. That enabled him to learn what he needed to do differently to become an effective major league starter. And he did. If he dedicates himself to a similar program this offseason, I see no reason why he cannot be as good in 2013 as he was in 2012 and maybe, even a bit better.

mcrow
01-30-2013, 10:14 AM
Diamond definitely can be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher but given what we've seen so far it would be hard to imagine he can be a true ace or even a good #2. I think he can be a very good #3 though. Of course, in a typical Twins rotation that's a #1 or #2 starter.

diehardtwinsfan
01-30-2013, 10:50 AM
I'm farily bearish on Diamond repeating his season. Those type of pitchers walk a fine line. He might be able to do it for a season or two, but the league will catch up, just ask Blackburn. I do think that he has one big thing going for him in that he's a lefty... Mark Buerhle is the guy I hope he can pitch like, but I really wonder if Buerhle would have been nearly as successfull had he been right handed.

Nick Nelson
01-30-2013, 11:08 AM
I read last year that the reason for his improvement in 2012 was the work he did during the offseason, 2011/2012. In addition to doing the normal physical work a pitcher will do, he watch a ton of film and studied his game. That enabled him to learn what he needed to do differently to become an effective major league starter. And he did. If he dedicates himself to a similar program this offseason, I see no reason why he cannot be as good in 2013 as he was in 2012 and maybe, even a bit better.

I’d be curious to know what changes he made in order to improve his command and cut down the walks. It is one thing to study game film and decide you need to throw more strikes (I’m sure many pitchers reach this conclusion) but it’s another thing entirely to execute it as well as he did. Has any reporter gone in-depth with him on this subject?

LoganJones
01-30-2013, 11:09 AM
The outfield defense leads me to believe he will be worse, as less fly balls are turned into outs.
Struggling outfield defenses don't turn fly balls into hits. They allow more line drives to be hits than they should. Fly balls turn into home runs in certain parks, but that's it. Only 21% of Diamond's batted balls were 'line drives' last year. One interesting tidbit was 14% of the batted balls against Diamond last year were bunted. That will probably go down, so it could see an increase in line drives from there, but more likely, the other percentages will stay the same, with a slight tendency for ground balls to go up. Edit- but not really, since bunts are considered ground balls.

mike wants wins
01-30-2013, 11:14 AM
I think the point was clear, but maybe not. A question..... Are you suggesting replacing Revere with Parmalee will not result in more outfield hits?

LoganJones
01-30-2013, 11:50 AM
Of the 38 'fly ball' hits Diamond surrendered, 31 of them were XBH, 16 Homers and 4 Triples. Fair to guess they were mostly well hit balls that caught fence or one hopped into the stands. I assume some of the 'bloopers' (fair to call flyball singles likely bloopers and some of the doubles as well) could have been cut down by better outfield play, but how many? How many of the Scott Diamond line drives did Ben Revere turn into outs last year that a lesser (Parm) right fielder wouldn't have? It would be interesting to check. You'd have to go through all the plays when Diamond was pitching.

You obviously can't compare their sample sizes, since Ben logged 708 Innings (roughly half of the total innings last year) in RF to Parm's 132. That being said, Parm converted 21 of 22 balls in zone and 5 out of it. Ben had 128 BIZ and converted 122. He also snagged 50(!) out of zone balls. That would be where the difference lies, I suppose. It's fair to say that RF will not be as well protected as it was, but how much worse will it really be? Parm has proven in limited duty to be able to cover the balls hit his way and even get to some out of his reach.

Also worth considering that out of 714 plate appearances, 103 resulted in balls headed to RF. 48 pulled by LHB, 53 RHB oppos. A much greated number headed toward LF and up the middle, where things are going to be the same (LF) or potentially better (CF - Let's go Hicks) as last year.

Blah blah: Diamond's success rests mostly on his own ability to stay ahead of the hitters, not the OF.

ashburyjohn
01-30-2013, 01:00 PM
Despite the fact that he is the only person of the 2012 rotation who is pretty much guaranteed a position in the 2013 rotation, this does not make him a "de facto ace".

Based on who the Twins signed so far, I'd put Harden, Pelfrey and Worley ahead of Diamond at this point...

I halfway agree: Diamond is not a de facto ace, because there is no such thing. Someone will by definition start the first game of the season; if the team is so lucky as to reach the playoffs then someone will start Game One - doesn't make him an ace. Some teams just lack one, pure and simple. Abe Lincoln's old chestnut about not calling a dog's tail a leg applies here.

As for the actual topic, I had been penciling Diamond in for a much higher ERA, but I re-reviewed his career numbers, and I think I'm going to go out on a limb and say "better", not "worse". He's pretty close to his ceiling, so it will be splitting hairs to call him better if he achieves 32 starts instead of 27 with the same general results per game, but I'm going with that.

I have forgotten the answer to why the Braves didn't protect him from the rule-5 draft, or the legalities of why he was exposed to that draft after only 3 years of pro ball. I know the Braves had a deep system, but why even sign an undrafted college player if you're not going to see things through in the event he actually succeeds, to the point of pretty good success in a short stint at the AAA level in his age-23 season? If you don't have roster room to protect promising youngsters, seems like the time to package up some prospects in a blockbuster trade for a star.

birdwatcher
01-30-2013, 01:01 PM
Despite the fact that he is the only person of the 2012 rotation who is pretty much guaranteed a position in the 2013 rotation, this does not make him a "de facto ace".

Based on who the Twins signed so far, I'd put Harden, Pelfrey and Worley ahead of Diamond at this point...
So, the de charta ace is Harden who has about as many question marks as Diamond on returning to form following surgery...

We shall find who the de facto ace is after Spring Training. Heck, Gibson might be it, seems healthier than the bunch these days...

This is funny stuff, thrylos, although it doen't top your "Slowey is the next Maddox" prediction.

snepp
01-30-2013, 01:31 PM
This is funny stuff, thrylos, although it doen't top your "Slowey is the next Maddox" prediction.

No, no, no, Slowey is the next Roy Halladay.