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View Full Version : Sickels ranks Twins system #7



gunnarthor
01-29-2013, 03:22 PM
Up from 17 last year.
2013 Baseball Farm System Rankings - Minor League Ball (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm-system-rankings)
"Strengths: hitting. Oswaldo Arcia (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/148874/oswaldo-arcia) and Aaron Hicks (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/130164/aaron-hicks) will be ready to help the outfield sometime in 2013. Enormous upside in players like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, Max Kepler (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/152487/max-kepler) and Eddie Rosario. Weaknesses: lack of high upside arms although that's improved thanks to '12 draft and winter trades that brought in Alex Meyer and Trevor May. If new group of arms develops properly, this could be a top three system by end of '13."

Knotholemike
01-29-2013, 03:34 PM
Yay!:jump:

beehles
01-29-2013, 03:47 PM
Great improvement. Let's hope these guys' potential blossoms into some great MLB careers down the road! Probably more excited to follow everyone down on the farm than the major leage club this year...

diehardtwinsfan
01-30-2013, 11:06 AM
The Twins need to find a way to leave Hicks and Arcia in the system so that they can be top 3 next year :)

gunnarthor
01-30-2013, 11:42 AM
The Twins need to find a way to leave Hicks and Arcia in the system so that they can be top 3 next year :)

Actually, I think Arcia loses his rookie eligiblity this year but he might not. He's awfully young so the Twins might not push him. And even though Hicks and Gibson will be gone, they'll add the #4 pick and (hopefully) strong years by some of Kepler, Berrios, May or some sleepers we aren't focusing on (Harrison, Polcanco, Santana) will keep the high ranking next year. (Or Buxton can absolutely explode and become a top 5 prospect).

Badsmerf
01-30-2013, 11:43 AM
The Twins need to find a way to leave Hicks and Arcia in the system so that they can be top 3 next year :)
Joe Benson starts at CF and doesn't give up the position all year. Someone will still come up if Morneau or Willingham are traded.....

drjim
01-30-2013, 07:41 PM
The Twins need to find a way to leave Hicks and Arcia in the system so that they can be top 3 next year :)

If Sano and Buxton progress as they should and they make a good pick at #4 it will be a top 3 system no matter where Hicks and Arcia end up.

Brock Beauchamp
01-30-2013, 08:23 PM
If Sano and Buxton progress as they should and they make a good pick at #4 it will be a top 3 system no matter where Hicks and Arcia end up.

I disagree. They need pitching to step up to get into the top 3 (but it's still possible without Arcia and Hicks).

kab21
01-30-2013, 08:41 PM
Drafting Manaea, Stanek or Appel along with possible improvements from the the A ball and rk ball players can take this system to the top 3 regardless of losing Hicks, Arcia and Gibson.

drjim
01-31-2013, 08:13 AM
I disagree. They need pitching to step up to get into the top 3 (but it's still possible without Arcia and Hicks).


Fair enough. I was still counting Meyer and May and the potential draft pick. Obviously nothing is automatic. They could drop or they could end up #1. Should be a fun year to follow the system.

Brock Beauchamp
01-31-2013, 09:10 AM
Fair enough. I was still counting Meyer and May and the potential draft pick. Obviously nothing is automatic. They could drop or they could end up #1. Should be a fun year to follow the system.

Yeah, the minors will be more interesting than the team in Minnesota, in all likelihood. It's hard not to like what Smith and Ryan did with the minor leagues over the past 3-4 years, even if most of us spend a large portion of our time complaining about their handling of the Major League squad.

Twins Twerp
01-31-2013, 11:15 AM
Drafting Manaea, Stanek or Appel along with possible improvements from the the A ball and rk ball players can take this system to the top 3 regardless of losing Hicks, Arcia and Gibson.

I know it is early but sure do hope that daft offers up FOUR can't miss draft picks. We keep talking about the 3 pitchers but we pick fourth. There are a couple of toolsy Georgia outfielders who are pretty good. Hopefully one of those teams in front of us picks one of them so we can get our hands on one of the top pitchers. I would really like Manaea because he is a lefty and isn't a Boras client (I don't think anyway). If Appel is there I think we have to take him and pay him over slot. He may be the best of the bunch and could be to the majors by 2015.

Brock Beauchamp
01-31-2013, 11:31 AM
I know it is early but sure do hope that daft offers up FOUR can't miss draft picks. We keep talking about the 3 pitchers but we pick fourth. There are a couple of toolsy Georgia outfielders who are pretty good. Hopefully one of those teams in front of us picks one of them so we can get our hands on one of the top pitchers. I would really like Manaea because he is a lefty and isn't a Boras client (I don't think anyway). If Appel is there I think we have to take him and pay him over slot. He may be the best of the bunch and could be to the majors by 2015.

We still have an entire prep and college season to play before the draft. Worrying that the top three pitchers will be taken before the Twins draft at #4 is premature. A lot can and will change before June.

FrodaddyG
01-31-2013, 12:16 PM
We still have an entire prep and college season to play before the draft. Worrying that the top three pitchers will be taken before the Twins draft at #4 is premature. A lot can and will change before June.
Exactly. There's also a good chance there's a currently-off-the-radar high school kid who was a scrawny junior throwing 86 last year that grew 5 inches and comes in touching 98 this year. (And the Twins will do everything in their power to get him back to 86, ASAP.)

righty8383
01-31-2013, 12:26 PM
Exactly. There's also a good chance there's a currently-off-the-radar high school kid who was a scrawny junior throwing 86 last year that grew 5 inches and comes in touching 98 this year. (And the Twins will do everything in their power to get him back to 86, ASAP.)

I know you're joking. But be careful, there are some Twins fans that will actually believe this.

FrodaddyG
01-31-2013, 12:34 PM
I know you're joking. But be careful, there are some Twins fans that will actually believe this.
Yeah. They'd probably be fine with it if he only got back to 89.

TheLeviathan
01-31-2013, 05:12 PM
Encouraging news, love the make-up of some of these hitters. Smith's aggressiveness still could pay a lot of positive dividends.

Badsmerf
01-31-2013, 05:57 PM
Yeah. They'd probably be fine with it if he only got back to 89.
That only depends on if he can really get some sink on that thing.

Brock Beauchamp
01-31-2013, 08:34 PM
Encouraging news, love the make-up of some of these hitters. Smith's aggressiveness still could pay a lot of positive dividends.

I've always been a fan of how Smith ran the minor league system.

Twins Twerp
01-31-2013, 08:49 PM
I've always been a fan of how Smith ran the minor league system.

Minus trading a first division catcher for a soft throwing closer.

TheLeviathan
01-31-2013, 08:50 PM
I've always been a fan of how Smith ran the minor league system.

I think it's fairly safe to say that many of the guys Ryan is now counting on may not have been there if he was in charge when they were acquired.

PseudoSABR
01-31-2013, 09:18 PM
Minus trading a first division catcher for a soft throwing closer.He also mishandled younger players Garza, Bartlett, and Young. If it wasn't for the international signings we'd all be singing a different tune.

glunn
01-31-2013, 10:59 PM
I've always been a fan of how Smith ran the minor league system.

Assuming that you are not being factitious, what did you like about Smith's regime?

70charger
02-01-2013, 12:19 AM
I know it is early but sure do hope that daft offers up FOUR can't miss draft picks. We keep talking about the 3 pitchers but we pick fourth. There are a couple of toolsy Georgia outfielders who are pretty good. Hopefully one of those teams in front of us picks one of them so we can get our hands on one of the top pitchers. I would really like Manaea because he is a lefty and isn't a Boras client (I don't think anyway). If Appel is there I think we have to take him and pay him over slot. He may be the best of the bunch and could be to the majors by 2015.

Not only is this way premature, but why the hell would you pay Appel over slot? He's a senior in college. Where's he gonna go? Indy?

jokin
02-01-2013, 01:03 AM
Not only is this way premature, but why the hell would you pay Appel over slot? He's a senior in college. Where's he gonna go? Indy?

St Paul Saints

Brock Beauchamp
02-01-2013, 08:21 AM
Minus trading a first division catcher for a soft throwing closer.

I consider that a mishandling of the major league roster.

Brock Beauchamp
02-01-2013, 08:32 AM
Assuming that you are not being factitious, what did you like about Smith's regime?

Smith went hard after Sano when everyone was skeptical that the Twins would be competitive in the international market. Now, the Twins have an elite prospect due to Smith opening the checkbook and allowing the scouting department to go after a guy they really wanted.

Would JR have done the same thing? It's possible but there's nothing in his previous tenure or his current tenure to believe that's the case. That's what I liked about Smith. He wasn't afraid to go hard after the international market and make a real splash in an attempt to improve the franchise. He also drafted what many consider to be the Twins' third best prospect, Hicks. He also drafted Gibson, a ballsy but smart move after Kyle had dropped way down the list after breaking his arm (I think it was his arm). People seem to forget that the Twins minor league system improved (by a lot) under Smith's tenure as GM. It was under Ryan that the Twins were left in a spot where Nick Blackburn was a "top prospect" (though it was under Ryan that the Twins picked up Arcia). The Twins farm was really bad in 2007/2008 and its current strength is largely due to the work of Bill Smith, not Terry Ryan. Most of the guys we're excited about right now were acquisitions under Smith's stewardship.

On the other hand, outside of the 2009/2010 offseason, Smith's handling of the Major League roster was abominable. Trading the Twins' two best pitchers before the 2008 season, moving Hardy for Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Nearly every move was a disaster. The Capps/Ramos trade was bad but it wasn't even close to Smith's worst move as GM. The Twins got some quality time out of Capps, more than they can say about Hoey, Nishioka, and the pile of garbage they got in return for Santana.

diehardtwinsfan
02-01-2013, 11:37 AM
I know it is early but sure do hope that daft offers up FOUR can't miss draft picks. We keep talking about the 3 pitchers but we pick fourth. There are a couple of toolsy Georgia outfielders who are pretty good. Hopefully one of those teams in front of us picks one of them so we can get our hands on one of the top pitchers. I would really like Manaea because he is a lefty and isn't a Boras client (I don't think anyway). If Appel is there I think we have to take him and pay him over slot. He may be the best of the bunch and could be to the majors by 2015.

This org is overflowing with toolsy OFers... I'd be OK with a college toolsy MI or a P, but another outfielder would be down right stupid. There won't be 4 strasburgs in this draft. Once you get to the 4 pick, there will be a number of similar type players, so spare me BPA...

gunnarthor
02-01-2013, 01:33 PM
More on the farm system. In his fangraphs chat today, Mike Newman was asked:

Regarding the AL Central, which team do you think has the best prospects, which has the worst? http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png



12:14




Mike Newman:
Worst is still the Chicago White Sox and will continue to be for the near future at least. As for the best, Minnesota hands down. They have a ton of talent in the low minors and traded for a bunch more. It's a sneaky good system right now.

Steve Lein
02-01-2013, 04:10 PM
Another snippet from Mike Newman on maybe my favorite Twins prospect:




"Comment From Fred

Your thoughts on Max Kepler? Do you think a breakout season coming off a breakout season is in the cards for him?


http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png


1:26




Mike Newman:
I would not make a top-100 list without Max Kepler in it. Very nice player with an above average skill set across the board. He's a good bet to break out in 2013."







And he likes Kepler more than Bubba Starling of the Royals.

Brock Beauchamp
02-01-2013, 05:17 PM
More on the farm system. In his fangraphs chat today, Mike Newman was asked:

Regarding the AL Central, which team do you think has the best prospects, which has the worst? http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png



12:14



Mike Newman:
Worst is still the Chicago White Sox and will continue to be for the near future at least. As for the best, Minnesota hands down. They have a ton of talent in the low minors and traded for a bunch more. It's a sneaky good system right now.







High praise. I happen to agree with his "sneaky good" assessment. The system could absolutely use more pitching but when you have guys like Kepler barely breaking the top ten on some lists, you have a good ****ing farm system.

If Berrios and one of Meyer/May break out this season and anything good happens with one of the college arms, this is a top five system even if you remove Gibson and Hicks as they transition into the majors.

Nick Nelson
02-01-2013, 06:17 PM
Encouraging news, love the make-up of some of these hitters. Smith's aggressiveness still could pay a lot of positive dividends.
As frustrated as I was with some aspects of Smith's tenure, he oversaw the biggest international spending spree in franchise history during a stretch in 2009, throwing big money at Sano, Kepler and Polanco. That play is looking really smart right now, and will look genius if Polanco has another year like his last one.

TheLeviathan
02-01-2013, 09:12 PM
As frustrated as I was with some aspects of Smith's tenure, he oversaw the biggest international spending spree in franchise history during a stretch in 2009, throwing big money at Sano, Kepler and Polanco. That play is looking really smart right now, and will look genius if Polanco has another year like his last one.

Yeah, when you look at the future of this team his aggressive approach in the international market and his willingness to target players that had escaped us under Ryan looks like the foundation for everything we hope for. We can only hope that didn't go unnoticed by Ryan.

jokin
02-02-2013, 01:01 AM
Yeah, when you look at the future of this team his aggressive approach in the international market and his willingness to target players that had escaped us under Ryan looks like the foundation for everything we hope for. We can only hope that didn't go unnoticed by Ryan.

Except that, if you believe what's being tweeted out there, the Twins- despite having the biggest obvious need for a SS in all of MLB, and sooner rather than later- have already bowed out of the Diaz hunt because, nothwithstanding cutting $40M in the last 2 seasons with more $$ likely cut in 2014, they somehow can't afford to play in that game.

TheLeviathan
02-02-2013, 08:03 AM
Except that, if you believe what's being tweeted out there, the Twins- despite having the biggest obvious need for a SS in all of MLB, and sooner rather than later- have already bowed out of the Diaz hunt because, nothwithstanding cutting $40M in the last 2 seasons with more $$ likely cut in 2014, they somehow can't afford to play in that game.

He's not counted under an international signing? I want to wait and see what he is signed for, but that would be another blow as a Twins fan if indeed Diaz signed elsewhere.

Brock Beauchamp
02-02-2013, 09:09 AM
He's not counted under an international signing? I want to wait and see what he is signed for, but that would be another blow as a Twins fan if indeed Diaz signed elsewhere.

Definitely, but let's not classify him under "international" quite yet. The guy could be looking at $10-20m while Sano got what, $3.5m? The fact that the Cuban kids are being treated differently makes them a much bigger risk and they will require a much bigger payday to acquire. While I'd love to see Diaz come to the Twins, I'm not so crazy about the pricetag that could follow him here.

TheLeviathan
02-02-2013, 09:19 AM
Definitely, but let's not classify him under "international" quite yet. The guy could be looking at $10-20m while Sano got what, $3.5m? The fact that the Cuban kids are being treated differently makes them a much bigger risk and they will require a much bigger payday to acquire. While I'd love to see Diaz come to the Twins, I'm not so crazy about the pricetag that could follow him here.

Well that's why I was curious if it was sorted out for what he qualified under. I'm ok with the team being a bit gunshy about handing tens of millions to an unproven player, but I hope they don't bow out before prices get absurd.

mike wants wins
02-02-2013, 09:36 AM
No one expects Ryan to sign expensive players.....Smiths biggest legacy was his willingness to do so. But Ryan will get all the credit for rebuilding the twins when sano and Kepler are up.

old nurse
02-02-2013, 10:14 AM
Definitely, but let's not classify him under "international" quite yet. The guy could be looking at $10-20m while Sano got what, $3.5m? The fact that the Cuban kids are being treated differently makes them a much bigger risk and they will require a much bigger payday to acquire. While I'd love to see Diaz come to the Twins, I'm not so crazy about the pricetag that could follow him here.
If his ceiling is high enough, he would be a better value even at 4/20 than what the Twins could pick up in the free agent market. Compared to what the Twins have available the next two years, at 10 million it would be a steal. His OPS in the high level of cuban leagues was .845 for his career, so he might hit at the mlb level

Jeremy Nygaard
02-02-2013, 10:39 AM
Based on Cespedas and Puig's contract, plus Diaz's premium defensive position, you're probably looking at six or so years at $7 or $8 million annually. Cespedas' successful year and the international cap omitting Cubans has Diaz in line for a huge payday. I won't be overly disappointed if/when the Twins quit bidding.

old nurse
02-02-2013, 12:33 PM
Based on Cespedas and Puig's contract, plus Diaz's premium defensive position, you're probably looking at six or so years at $7 or $8 million annually. Cespedas' successful year and the international cap omitting Cubans has Diaz in line for a huge payday. I won't be overly disappointed if/when the Twins quit bidding.

He is not in Cespedes class as a player. Puig signed for 7/42 and started in the low minors. From what I read Diaz is a little more developed than that but not quite the hitter. It makes it hard to guess a number. Tulowitxki, Drew and Reyes are the last big shortstop contracts. Drew was only for a year. The rest of the above average shortstops are in the 5-6 million range except for Hardy. I don't think Diaz would project to JJ Hardy.

Jeremy Nygaard
02-02-2013, 12:47 PM
He is not in Cespedes class as a player. Puig signed for 7/42 and started in the low minors. From what I read Diaz is a little more developed than that but not quite the hitter. It makes it hard to guess a number. Tulowitxki, Drew and Reyes are the last big shortstop contracts. Drew was only for a year. The rest of the above average shortstops are in the 5-6 million range except for Hardy. I don't think Diaz would project to JJ Hardy.

I agree with most of what you are saying. Puig and Diaz are nearly the same age, so Diaz would most likely need a year (plus) in the minors. I think what complicates projections the most is the questioning of Diaz's age and if he's going to be allowed in the MLB, when and if he'll be subjected to the pool limits. (For those wondering why, he has apparently presented himself older than he actually is.)