PDA

View Full Version : Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble



East Coast Twin
01-23-2013, 06:02 AM
Interesting article about the Twins signing of Kevin Correia.

"But I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. He's a little bit better than a fifth starter. ..."

Mackey: Twins Taking a Philosophical Gamble (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_How_will_Twins_philosophical_pitching_gambl es_pay_off012213)

snepp
01-23-2013, 07:02 AM
This article makes me sad.

Rosterman
01-23-2013, 07:54 AM
Stats and Live Scouts. Creates confusion, or so it looks. Correria was lucky. He got an offer from the Twins that was more than serviceable and grabbed it without question.

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 08:32 AM
If he is better than his numbers, then why isn't he...like, better?

Ouch, painful to read.

GCTF
01-23-2013, 08:56 AM
Counting the days until the "> Kevin Correia " thread. appears.

Top Gun
01-23-2013, 09:01 AM
Sounds like Ryan is already starting to pass the buck.

gmarais66
01-23-2013, 09:07 AM
If he is better than his numbers, then why isn't he...like, better?

Ouch, painful to read.

I'm not saying Corriea is going to be great, but this is where all you guys that decide everything about players, by looking at stats, are missing the boat. Scouts and those who have experience playing/coaching baseball, know there can be much more value to a player than what's recorded on the stats sheet. From what I've seen of Corriea, he's a lot like Carl Pavano. Pavano put up similar numbers in his first two years with the Twins. They weren't impressive, but you knew, every time out that the Twins had a shot to win when Pavano was on the mound. Why? He'd get into tough situations (which contributed to his less than eye-popping numbers), but he knew how to get out of those situations. He looked ugly at times, but he could get guys out when he had to. He may give up five or six runs, but he kept his team in the game and gave the Twins a chance to win. It's cliche', but he was the bend, not break type of pitcher. You won't find any of this in the stats sheets, because there's no line for toughness or fortitude or instinct. I'm sure many will laugh at this, but it is true. Baseball isn't played on paper. It is a game of stats, but the stats don't always tell the whole story of what happens on the field.

USAFChief
01-23-2013, 09:14 AM
He may give up five or six runs, but he kept his team in the game and gave the Twins a chance to win. .

You had me right up until this part.

Nick Nelson
01-23-2013, 09:14 AM
From what I've seen of Corriea, he's a lot like Carl Pavano. Pavano put up similar numbers in his first two years with the Twins. They weren't impressive, but you knew, every time out that the Twins had a shot to win when Pavano was on the mound.

Pavano's stats in his first two years with the Twins were actually pretty good, far better than anything we've seen from Correia. Not a strong comp.

whydidnt
01-23-2013, 09:39 AM
Uggh, this is why I have such little confidence in TR ability to build the Twins into a World Series contender. I hope I'm wrong about this, but any serious run at rebuilding has to be based upon a combination of scouting and stats. It seems over and over again when those two are in conflict, Ryan choses the scouts, and over the last few years, that has been disaster, yet he doesn't seem to learn from it.

JB_Iowa
01-23-2013, 09:53 AM
Interesting that Mackey may be on the "Free Slama" bandwagon. And why does "runs every transaction past the Twins internal statistical department" not inspire me about the USE of those statistics?

Also love that they are "airming for 2014 more than 2013". I suppose so but I don't think 2014 looms as a very big target for this group either.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 10:11 AM
Interesting that Mackey may be on the "Free Slama" bandwagon. And why does "runs every transaction past the Twins internal statistical department" not inspire me about the USE of those statistics?

Also love that they are "airming for 2014 more than 2013". I suppose so but I don't think 2014 looms as a very big target for this group either.

Ryan says he runs everything past their main stat guy, but he says he believes in some stats and not others. In other words, if the stat guy says we shouldn't a player Ryan wants to get based on X stats, then he doesn't believe in those stats and gets him. If the stats guy says we should get a guy Ryan wants to get based on X stats, then he agrees with them. Basically, I'm gonna run it past the stats guy, but it doesn't matter what he says, I'm gonna do what I'm gonna do.

edavis0308
01-23-2013, 10:16 AM
Counting the days until the "> Kevin Correia " thread. appears.

Why wait?

Tongue frozen to flag pole > Kevin Correia

josecordoba
01-23-2013, 10:42 AM
I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

Teams are getting more aware/advanced with stats all the time. Even the Stats that Smart Baseball Fans tend to reference such as xFIP tend to pale in comparsion to the resources for a major league team. Scouting will be able to create more of a Market Inefficiency overtime. I'll hold out to the possibility there are things about Kevin Correria I can't grasp looking at stats. Could there be bad luck where he hits his spots? I can't say for certain.

I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

Willihammer
01-23-2013, 10:51 AM
I don't understand how scouting could even enter the equation. We're talking about a 10 year pro.

The only possible information edge that the Twins might have here is the reference to the ballpark. Maybe someone saw a spray chart and thinks Target Field will contain some of the HRs that otherwise would be gone at AT&T, PNC, and Petco. If that's the case, color me dubious.

nicksaviking
01-23-2013, 10:51 AM
WTF, did Ryan really try to imply Correia's poor 2012 production was due to being moved to the bullpen? Where he pitched all of 10 innings?

Nothing more to say about this situation that hasn't already been said but this boils my blood. This is the closest a member of the media has come to pointing out that Ryan is making poor decisions. Hopefully more members of the media now see they can constructively criticize the Twins and start the process of holding Ryan accountable for this BS.

Boom Boom
01-23-2013, 10:59 AM
The "he's a little bit better than a fifth starter" line is so sad it's almost funny.

Especially considering Correia wasn't even in the Pirates' top 5.

josecordoba
01-23-2013, 11:00 AM
I don't understand how scouting could even enter the equation. We're talking about a 10 year pro.

The only possible information edge that the Twins might have here is the reference to the ballpark. Maybe someone saw a spray chart and thinks Target Field will contain some of the HRs that otherwise would be gone at AT&T, PNC, and Petco. If that's the case, color me dubious.

Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.

UCLA_YANKEE_COLA
01-23-2013, 11:26 AM
Do pitchers get markedly better 10 years into their career? Or when they move to a tougher league? Maybe it happens (I can't think of anyone off hand) but if it does it's not something you can count on. What could the Twins have possibly based this move on other than what he's done on the field?

He's not going to reinvent himself Whether we like it or not he's going to be as bad, or worse, in 2013 as he has been over the last 10 years.

nicksaviking
01-23-2013, 11:28 AM
Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.

I can't believe that. Ryan granted an interview to Mackey, and judging by the tone of the article the questions were not particularly pleasent. Ryan specifically said "I don't think we overpaid" which means that Mackey actually asked Ryan something along the lines of "Do you think you overpaid for Correia?" Ryan was very defensive and went on to say things like "We weren't the only team chasing him," and "He's a little better than a fifth starter." He also took several opportunities to lay the situation at the scouts/evaluators feet by implying that he got the information from those people as opposed to making the decision based on his personal assesment. With Ryan being defensive with many of his answers and perhaps subconciously trying to put this signing on the evaluators below him, it would tell me that Ryan certainly would have disclosed any "secret" information the Twins knew about Correia that would swing popular opinion in his favor. There would be no harm in proclaiming Correia's hidden attributes at this point, they already signed him.

josecordoba
01-23-2013, 11:41 AM
You make a fair point- I do wonder if it's possible that Ryan doesn't care to shed insight into their process.

jokin
01-23-2013, 11:51 AM
I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

Nothing personal, but this post might look stupid, right now. The very quote above:

"But I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. He's a little bit better than a fifth starter. ..."

demonstrates that this GM made a panic-signing based on a reckless thought process, and is in severe back-pedal mode.

This article is reminiscient of all the FO "apologies" and excuses made about Nishi in spring training of his debut year. Those names still haven't been named, will the "adamant" scouts on this deal stay similarly anonymous?

Willihammer
01-23-2013, 11:51 AM
I think Jr's intentionally mystifying the process, if anything. Correia's a guy who doesn't walk many or strike many out. Its as simple as that.

Btw, Jr said "I don't think we overpaid drastically," which to me sounds like he accepts that they overpaid somewhat. Whatever market inefficiency there might have been that undervalued low walk/low strikeout guys, its not there anymore.

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 11:52 AM
I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 12:03 PM
I recall (maybe in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook) Terry Ryan speaking about scouting accountability at some length. At certain point, those who end up recommending the likes of Marquis and Correia (if indeed he ends up a lemon) need to have less influence. We'll see.

I doubt it's the same scout or even group of scouts that are recommending the bulldog Correia and championing the likes of Meyer and Mays. It's just too bad there isn't more public accountability for scouts--as it'd make good forum fodder, and more precise criticisms.

Overall though, the minor league/draft philosophy on pitchers seems promising and a marked shift from what we knew as the Twins; if some of these pitchers work out, and the scouting philosophy looks sustaining, maybe it can graduate to the major league level and into our evaluations of free agents. We can hope.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 12:04 PM
I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

You value the win stat?

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 12:16 PM
The win discussion sidesteps, the actual discussion of where guys like Correia (or even Blackburn in his prime (Ha!)) actually have value. Innings matter, and the capacity to pitch deeply into games even when doing poorly matters, it saves the bullpen at minimum. At the major league level, consistent mediocrity is preferable to scattershot success and failure (like say Liriano or Deduno), even the though the latter gives you something to dream on.

nicksaviking
01-23-2013, 12:16 PM
I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

Ha, duck and cover, it's going to get ugly pretty quick!

nicksaviking
01-23-2013, 12:18 PM
The win discussion sidesteps, the actual discussion of where guys like Correia (or even Blackburn in his prime (Ha!)) actually have value. Innings matter, and the capacity to pitch deeply into games even when doing poorly matters, it saves the bullpen at minimum. At the major league level, consistent mediocrity is preferable to scattershot success and failure (like say Liriano or Deduno), even the though the latter gives you something to dream on.

Did you not read the article? Correia's inability to get past the 6th inning was one of Mackey's points of contention.

jokin
01-23-2013, 12:21 PM
I doubt it's the same scout or even group of scouts that are recommending the bulldog Correia and championing the likes of Meyer and Mays. It's just too bad there isn't more public accountability for scouts--as it'd make good forum fodder, and more precise criticisms.

Overall though, the minor league/draft philosophy on pitchers seems promising and a marked shift from what we knew as the Twins; if some of these pitchers work out, and the scouting philosophy looks sustaining, maybe it can graduate to the major league level and into our evaluations of free agents. We can hope.

These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).

old nurse
01-23-2013, 12:26 PM
You value the win stat?
Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

Brock Beauchamp
01-23-2013, 12:29 PM
Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

Because they have very little correlation with performance would be one explanation. That they have even less worth as a predictive tool is another.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 12:29 PM
Did you not read the article? Correia's inability to get past the 6th inning was one of Mackey's points of contention.

He went past the 6th inning 3 times last year. 3 times out of 28 starts

edavis0308
01-23-2013, 12:34 PM
Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

King Felix winning the Cy Young with 13 wins.

Whle he also had a 2.27 ERA, 249.2 IP, 8.4 K/9, a 1.057 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 174 ERA+.

I cant believe CC and his 21 wins didnt win the award and he actually placed 3rd that year. Outrage!

jokin
01-23-2013, 12:34 PM
I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

Marquis made a nice "major adjustment" going back to the NL...

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 12:36 PM
Because they have very little correlation with performance would be one explanation.

This

Plus it's a stat that should be a team stat. If wins and losses were a good stat to judge pitchers by I'd have to conclude that Phillips Hughes was a better pitcher than Felix Hernandez in the year Felix Hernandez won the CY Young (2010). Hughes went 18-8 with an ERA of 4.19 and an ERA+ of 103. Felix Hernandez went 13-12 and had an ERA of 2.27 and his ERA+ of 174.

Heck, if we extend that out. Felix Hernandez was 13-12 in his CY year and Correia was 12-11 last year. If I judged by wins and losses, I'd conclude that Correia was ever so slightly worse than Felix Hernadez was the year he won the Cy Young.

Wins and losses don't tell us anything when it comes to pitcher's performance...

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 12:37 PM
Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

Heck, I was just gonna wait for an answer and see what he said and then let it go, regardless of his answer. Just wanted to know how much value he put in it. I suppose next time I'll phrase it that way instead...figured he'd let me know when he answered.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 12:40 PM
King Felix winning the Cy Young with 13 wins.

Whle he also had a 2.27 ERA, 249.2 IP, 8.4 K/9, a 1.057 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 174 ERA+.

I cant believe CC and his 21 wins didnt win the award and he actually placed 3rd that year. Outrage!

Santana is still waiting for Colon to give him his 2005 AL CY Young award....

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 12:45 PM
Did you not read the article? Correia's inability to get past the 6th inning was one of Mackey's points of contention.Did you put those numbers into context? Correia pitched 6+ innings 19 times (14 times exactly 6 innings); in any case, the Twins will leave him out there longer, as there's no need to pinch hit in the American League.

LimestoneBaggy
01-23-2013, 12:48 PM
Wow, it's getting to a point where I really want to be wrong and have Correia make TR (JR) look like a genius (against all odds for this signing). We can't unwind the clock to get a strikeout pitcher, so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 12:49 PM
These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).Well you're certainly no Plato, what with your allegories and caves. It's not exactly clear what your beef is.

What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

old nurse
01-23-2013, 12:53 PM
These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).
Fangraphs says Correia's fastball sits on average between 90-91. Other than Jackson, velocity wise Correia's speed is about the same as some of the other options available.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 12:53 PM
So at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?Great question.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 12:55 PM
Wow, it's getting to a point where I really want to be wrong and have Correia make TR (JR) look like a genius (against all odds for this signing). We can't unwind the clock to get a strikeout pitcher, so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

I would hope that anyone who has a serious issue with signing Correia would be delighted to be wrong...cause that would mean the team was better off.

snepp
01-23-2013, 12:56 PM
so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

My napkin math says roughly 180 innings of 4.50 ERA/FIP.

COtwin
01-23-2013, 12:58 PM
What worries me is that TR was so defensive about all of this and the evidence that he produced to support the signing. How many times did he refer to someone telling somebody else something about "the pitcher formerly known as >"? We have always known that the Twins are a "good ole boys" group. We have watched some deserving/capable players get no chance or dumped for years, because they didn't click with Gardy or whoever. Now we are spending legit money on guys that have almost no chance of being a positive addition to the rotation. I kinda want to keep going about why ">" has no chance but really I wanted to say that we need to remind TR of his words next year when this all implodes in Early May

Brock Beauchamp
01-23-2013, 12:59 PM
My napkin math says roughly 180 innings of 4.50 ERA/FIP.

I'd be thrilled with that season from Correia. The problem is that I feel even those meager numbers are a bit of a longshot.

nicksaviking
01-23-2013, 01:01 PM
Fangraphs says Correia's fastball sits on average between 90-91. Other than Jackson, velocity wise Correia's speed is about the same as some of the other options available.

And Matt Capps throws 95. You can parse the words all you want but you are fully aware that when he is requesting hard throwers he is actaully asking for guys with strikeout ability.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 01:03 PM
I'd be thrilled with that season from Correia. The problem is that I feel even those meager numbers are a bit of a longshot.Those aren't meager numbers to me, when you factor in the innings pitched.

snepp
01-23-2013, 01:05 PM
I'd be thrilled with that season from Correia. The problem is that I feel even those meager numbers are a bit of a longshot.

I'd take that season too. But considering that his career ERA/FIP is already 4.50 in the NL, with a ton of time in pitcher's parks, with only one season north of 180 innings (and just one other even approaching it), I have to agree on the longshot.

Oh yeah, and he has to do it twice.

old nurse
01-23-2013, 01:05 PM
Wow, it's getting to a point where I really want to be wrong and have Correia make TR (JR) look like a genius (against all odds for this signing). We can't unwind the clock to get a strikeout pitcher, so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?
They paid for a guy with a career FIP as a starter somewhere around 4.4. If they paid him to be his average self, that is about the number they were looking for. (to the critics: I know it was a NL number, but to expect a number higher than that like 4.85 is to say they would be better off with Cole DeVries and I would get thrown out of the mythical apologists fan club)

edavis0308
01-23-2013, 01:12 PM
If he indeed was brought in to be a veteran innings eater, I might have higher expectations put on him - hoping for something like 200 innings of 4.75 ERA. I dont think he gets to 200 and I dont think he sniffs 4.75, especially with the defense he will have behind him.

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:13 PM
Fangraphs says Correia's fastball sits on average between 90-91. Other than Jackson, velocity wise Correia's speed is about the same as some of the other options available.


What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

And I can give you at least a dozen who match or exceed Correia's FB speed with much better stats. But we still have an ongoing love-fest in Saunders (4.38xFIP), who has a lower 3-year xFIP than Correia (4.26xFIP).

Pseudo, I didn't say simple incompetence, since you aren't "glib", I asked YOU to determine why they are doing what they're doing at the Major League level, you posited the original speculative surmise on "graduation".

old nurse
01-23-2013, 01:14 PM
Because they have very little correlation with performance would be one explanation. That they have even less worth as a predictive tool is another.
Everybody but lightfoot seems to know that. Puck got what I meant.

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:17 PM
Those aren't meager numbers to me, when you factor in the innings pitched.

Just think, if we also sign "bulldog" Saunders to a long-term deal, we can factor in more than double the innings of guys "slightly better than #5 level starters" for at least 2 more years!

ashburyjohn
01-23-2013, 01:25 PM
I'm not saying Corriea is going to be great, but this is where all you guys that decide everything about players, by looking at stats, are missing the boat.

OK, so right off the bat you're displaying some sort of chip on your shoulder. Don't know why.


Pavano put up similar numbers in his first two years with the Twins. They weren't impressive, but you knew, every time out that the Twins had a shot to win when Pavano was on the mound. ... He may give up five or six runs, but he kept his team in the game and gave the Twins a chance to win. It's cliche', but he was the bend, not break type of pitcher. You won't find any of this in the stats sheets, ...Baseball isn't played on paper. It is a game of stats, but the stats don't always tell the whole story of what happens on the field.

I assume you mean Pavano's first two full seasons with the Twins? Similar, in that he started 32/33 games and pitched 221/222 innings?

They weren't that similar. The first full season, 2010, he was among the top 20 pitchers in the league - not an all star but very effective, and the second best of his career. In that season, he gave up five or more earned runs six times, and the Twins were 2-4 in those games, as he "kept them in the game" to win 7-6 and 8-5 in those two games, while in the losses the scores were more like 11-2 except for one game they lost 11-10 where giving up 7 runs in 4 innings looks kind of decisive. That second season, 2011, he was far from good, and at best he might have been in the top 50 in the league - he gave up five or more runs ten times, and the Twins were 1-9 in those games, lots of 10-3 and 9-5 and 5-2 kinds of losses where he clearly didn't keep them in the game, with one 9-8 win they managed to eke out.

See, you want to say that the stats don't bear out what you "know", that the Twins had a shot to win when he stepped onto the mound. But there are concrete records you can check, to see whether a game-to-game claim is supported either. It's not just a bunch of complicated stats standing between you and your preferred reality.

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:28 PM
If he indeed was brought in to be a veteran innings eater, I might have higher expectations put on him - hoping for something like 200 innings of 4.75 ERA. I dont think he gets to 200 and I dont think he sniffs 4.75, especially with the defense he will have behind him.

I believe that phrase is the very definition of "damning with faint praise".

Being an eternal optimist, I "trust in TR" , he apparently believes he can get something close to a 2009 year out of Correia, adjusted for the AL, which would put him well above your projections. Hopefully, he is thinking he can get a great half-season out of Correia coming into a league unfamiliar with his stuff and can deal him before the deadline Unfortunately, there are 3 intervening years of mediocrity between that year and this, coupling that with the Twins defense, 200/4.75 seems to be the projection that's too optimistic.

Willihammer
01-23-2013, 01:28 PM
Here's a question: Why haven't the Twins and Pavano inked another contract?

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 01:29 PM
Last year, Correia had an ERA+ of 88 (his best in three years). Henderson Alvarez also had an ERA+ of 88. Correia's ERA was 4.21, Alvarez ERA was 4.85

Boom Boom
01-23-2013, 01:33 PM
Here's a question: Why haven't the Twins and Pavano inked another contract?

It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:37 PM
What worries me is that TR was so defensive about all of this and the evidence that he produced to support the signing. How many times did he refer to someone telling somebody else something about "the pitcher formerly known as >"? We have always known that the Twins are a "good ole boys" group. We have watched some deserving/capable players get no chance or dumped for years, because they didn't click with Gardy or whoever. Now we are spending legit money on guys that have almost no chance of being a positive addition to the rotation. I kinda want to keep going about why ">" has no chance but really I wanted to say that we need to remind TR of his words next year when this all implodes in Early May

You keep on going on like this and you're liable to make yourself persona non grata amongst those in "the mythical apologists fan club'

old nurse
01-23-2013, 01:38 PM
And I can give you at least a dozen who match or exceed Correia's FB speed with much better stats. But we still have an ongoing love-fest in Saunders (4.38xFIP), who has a lower 3-year xFIP than Correia (4.26xFIP).

.
You can give me a dozen starting pitchers on the free agent market who had better peripherals, but your original claim was on speed only. On speed only Correia is average. More than likely the problem isn't when he throws a good fastball. It is when the fastball, or any other pitch for that matter, is less than perfect is the problem.

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:38 PM
It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

You are treading on dangerous ground, TR has assessed and addressed this "non-issue"./sarc

Nick Nelson
01-23-2013, 01:39 PM
What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:40 PM
You can give me a dozen starting pitchers on the free agent market who had better peripherals, but your original claim was on speed only. On speed only Correia is average. More than likely the problem isn't when he throws a good fastball. It is when the fastball, or any other pitch for that matter, is less than perfect is the problem.

Uhh, no it wasn't, and I know you know that.

And Correia seems to have "less than perfect" as a rather frequent problem down pat.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 01:40 PM
I asked YOU to determine why they are doing what they're doing at the Major League level, you posited the original speculative surmise on "graduation".How the heck can I do that? I hoped that the philosophy that drafted Berrios and the high-velocity relievers last year and acquired Meyer and Mays would graduate to major league transactions. I wasn't speculating or surmising; I was thinking wishfully.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 01:41 PM
Uhh, no it wasn't, and I know you know that.

ever feel like you're in a court of law, or having to write up a legal document?

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 01:43 PM
I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms.

While it might not be new, it's a welcome resurrection then, and I hope it results in a tangible change in philosophical approach, because frankly there's a large gap between the 2005 arms and now.

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 01:44 PM
He went past the 6th inning 3 times last year. 3 times out of 28 starts

12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 01:45 PM
That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms.

While it might not be new, it's a welcome resurrection then, and I hope it results in a tangible change in philosophical approach, because frankly their a large gap between the 2005 arms and now.

Ryan even came out and said that people have been clamoring for years to draft power arms, so he finally did it this year. When he said it int eh interview, it almost seemed like he said it with disgust

Ultima Ratio
01-23-2013, 01:46 PM
I get it now, TR has envisioned KC to close games. No track record there or stats in that role, and contact that fits the role.

johnnydakota
01-23-2013, 01:46 PM
I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

Teams are getting more aware/advanced with stats all the time. Even the Stats that Smart Baseball Fans tend to reference such as xFIP tend to pale in comparsion to the resources for a major league team. Scouting will be able to create more of a Market Inefficiency overtime. I'll hold out to the possibility there are things about Kevin Correria I can't grasp looking at stats. Could there be bad luck where he hits his spots? I can't say for certain.

I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

The Minnesota Twins llc. put a bid in on a player from Japan , without ever seeing him play , but from watching some tapes...
and that is not reckless thought process?

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 01:48 PM
12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

HE earned those wins? HE did? Who was responsible for scoring the 4 or more runs in 9 of his 12 wins? Or heck, any runs?

The offense scores...the defense plays behind him... Wins is a team thing

johnnydakota
01-23-2013, 01:50 PM
The "he's a little bit better than a fifth starter" line is so sad it's almost funny.

Especially considering Correia wasn't even in the Pirates' top 5.

Im guessing Terry ment , Kevin Correia is a little bit better then last years Twins #5 pitcher....? Blackburn, marquis,Liriano Hendriks or Pavano?

jokin
01-23-2013, 01:54 PM
How the heck can I do that? I hoped that the philosophy that drafted Berrios and the high-velocity relievers last year and acquired Meyer and Mays would graduate to major league transactions. I wasn't speculating or surmising; I was thinking wishfully.

Ahh, I see, so another Pseudo-KC Royals-like fan- when your only reasons for optimism are full of hope and wishful thinking- I see a team in trouble for the upcoming season.

I showed that, at best, TR has a Chinese wall between his draft scouts and major league scouts. His trade for Meyer was when Ryan came out and said that it is "impossible" to acquire a high-end hard-thrower above Single A ball. He drafted hard throwers but didn't pony up for a Shields via trade or make a competitive offer on a decent FA SP. This directly implied that he would NEVER pay up on the FA market for the ML equivalent despite the gaping available salary space and had a definite problem pulling the trigger on a proven #1-2 starter via trade from the Twins positions of strength. (Was Span and a Top Ten prospect doable for Shields, or not? Shields days are numbered in Tampa.) See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge.

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 01:56 PM
Everybody but lightfoot seems to know that. Puck got what I meant.

Twins management must get what I'm saying. They signed him. The rest will be wait and see for results - regardless to all of the blogging GM hats we wear. Most of the bloggers believe that all their personal moves would result in grade A moves. And if they don't believe that - then give management a chance. I believe in TR

Willihammer
01-23-2013, 01:56 PM
It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

edavis0308
01-23-2013, 01:58 PM
I believe that phrase is the very definition of "damning with faint praise".

Being an eternal optimist, I "trust in TR" , he apparently believes he can get something close to a 2009 year out of Correia, adjusted for the AL, which would put him well above your projections. Hopefully, he is thinking he can get a great half-season out of Correia coming into a league unfamiliar with his stuff and can deal him before the deadline Unfortunately, there are 3 intervening years of mediocrity between that year and this, coupling that with the Twins defense, 200/4.75 seems to be the projection that's too optimistic.

It is very optimistic, but I also believe that anything less will result in my having the 'everybody saw that coming' attitude towards it. Sad that my optimism regarding the matter is a probably unattainable 4.75 ERA. sigh.

Boom Boom
01-23-2013, 02:02 PM
They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

Found it.
Frustrated Carl Pavano will not pitch again for Twins this season | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Frustrated_Carl_Pavano_will_not_pitch_again_for_Tw ins_this_season082112)

Carl didn't sound too pleased. I'm guessing that there were other issues beyond the head trainer.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 02:04 PM
Ahh, I see, so another Pseudo-KC Royals-like fan- when you're only reasons for optimism are full of hope and wishful thinking- I see a team in trouble for the upcoming season. I showed that, at best, TR has a Chinese wall between his draft scouts and major league scouts. His trade for Meyer was when Ryan came out and said that it is "impossible" to acquire a high-end hard-thrower above Single A ball. He drafted hard throwers but didn't pony up for a Shields via trade or make a competitive offer on a decent FA SP. This directly implied that he would NEVER pay up on the FA market for the ML equivalent despite the gaping available salary space and had a definite problem pulling the trigger on a proven #1-2 starter via trade from the Twins positions of strength. (Was Span and a Top Ten prospect doable for Shields, or not? Shields days are numbered in Tampa.) See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge. :banghead:

Honestly, if you're going to be smug, at least attack ideas people actually have.

jokin
01-23-2013, 02:06 PM
:banghead:

Honestly, if you're going to be smug, at least attack ideas people actually have.

I guess I'm still waiting for you to stop banging your head against the wall and come up with one.

Your constant penchant for perjorative indicates you are in the idea-dearth zone.

I directly quoted from your post, using the very phrases that indicated you are highly dependent on "hope" and "wishful thinking" regarding the Twins near future.

gmarais66
01-23-2013, 02:08 PM
I assume you mean Pavano's first two full seasons with the Twins? Similar, in that he started 32/33 games and pitched 221/222 innings?

They weren't that similar. The first full season, 2010, he was among the top 20 pitchers in the league - not an all star but very effective, and the second best of his career. In that season, he gave up five or more earned runs six times, and the Twins were 2-4 in those games, as he "kept them in the game" to win 7-6 and 8-5 in those two games, while in the losses the scores were more like 11-2 except for one game they lost 11-10 where giving up 7 runs in 4 innings looks kind of decisive. That second season, 2011, he was far from good, and at best he might have been in the top 50 in the league - he gave up five or more runs ten times, and the Twins were 1-9 in those games, lots of 10-3 and 9-5 and 5-2 kinds of losses where he clearly didn't keep them in the game, with one 9-8 win they managed to eke out.

See, you want to say that the stats don't bear out what you "know", that the Twins had a shot to win when he stepped onto the mound. But there are concrete records you can check, to see whether a game-to-game claim is supported either. It's not just a bunch of complicated stats standing between you and your preferred reality.

You are completely missing the point, which is what most of you guys do, because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player. I'm saying that Pavano is the type of pitcher, who players had confidence in to keep them in the game (whether he did it or not). More often than not he did do that. When he was on the mound, players knew they had a shot to win. Why? Because he's a tough, experienced pitcher who has that edge that he's not going to give up. You could see it in his face when he was out there on the mound. He hated losing and he wanted to succeed no matter what. Now, a guy like that gives your team confidence. You can't measure that with a stat. If you don't think that's valuable, contrast it with a guy like Liriano. You never know what he's going to do on the mound and when he gets in a jam, his confidence drains. Things compound and get ugly really fast. Over the course of time, players don't have a lot of confidence in a pitcher like that. It shows in their performance on the field. Why battle back, when Liriano will just give up another big inning? If you think this is bs, it's not. I played and coached the game for many years. There are many intangibles that aren't reflected in stats, which affect the outcome of a game and contribute to a player's value. My guess is that you never played the game and stats are all that you have to hold on to in understanding the game. If you had "hands on experience", you would understand there is so much more to baseball than stats. Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?

LimestoneBaggy
01-23-2013, 02:15 PM
I'd take that season too. But considering that his career ERA/FIP is already 4.50 in the NL, with a ton of time in pitcher's parks, with only one season north of 180 innings (and just one other even approaching it), I have to agree on the longshot.

Oh yeah, and he has to do it twice.

I like your benchmarks. I'll admit I've stared long and hard at his fangraphs page looking for ways to argue that he can do this. However, even a comparison of his page vrs. Marquis isn't making me feel better. Best of luck Kevin, God willing, it's 2009, Hicks is all over the park (after the first two-to-three weeks of the season), Florimon, Dozier, and Carroll have more range than we thought, and Trevor's a vaccum...sign..best of luck to you sir.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 02:17 PM
I guess I'm still waiting for you to stop banging your head against the wall and come up with one.

Your constant penchant for perjorative indicates you are in the idea-dearth zone.Pejorative? By calling you smug? Look, it's not at all classy to say "See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge." It's snotty and smug. I'm not attacking you, I'm attacking your tone. You use plenty of pejoratives throughout your post(s), and consistently condescend. Idea-dearth? Come on, man; you have no place to complain about the use of pejoratives.

Look, if you don't think I have any ideas, don't read my posts.

FrodaddyG
01-23-2013, 02:19 PM
Pavano's stats in his first two years with the Twins were actually pretty good, far better than anything we've seen from Correia. Not a strong comp.
Also, those years happened in, whattayacallit, the American League.

Brandon
01-23-2013, 02:20 PM
I would hope that anyone who has a serious issue with signing Correia would be delighted to be wrong...cause that would mean the team was better off.

It also means management won't learn their lesson regarding that type of player and will feel vindicated that they were right and continue to pursue those types of players.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 02:22 PM
It also means management won't learn their lesson regarding that type of player and will feel vindicated that they were right and continue to pursue those types of players.

well, there's that....reminds me of a manager who tries a strategy over and over and, when it continuously fails, blames the players for not executing. When it finally works, once, it's like 'SEE, I told you!' :-)

Boom Boom
01-23-2013, 02:22 PM
You are completely missing the point, which is what most of you guys do, because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player. I'm saying that Pavano is the type of pitcher, who players had confidence in to keep them in the game (whether he did it or not). More often than not he did do that. When he was on the mound, players knew they had a shot to win. Why? Because he's a tough, experienced pitcher who has that edge that he's not going to give up. You could see it in his face when he was out there on the mound. He hated losing and he wanted to succeed no matter what. Now, a guy like that gives your team confidence. You can't measure that with a stat. If you don't think that's valuable, contrast it with a guy like Liriano. You never know what he's going to do on the mound and when he gets in a jam, his confidence drains. Things compound and get ugly really fast. Over the course of time, players don't have a lot of confidence in a pitcher like that. It shows in their performance on the field. Why battle back, when Liriano will just give up another big inning? If you think this is bs, it's not. I played and coached the game for many years. There are many intangibles that aren't reflected in stats, which affect the outcome of a game and contribute to a player's value. My guess is that you never played the game and stats are all that you have to hold on to in understanding the game. If you had "hands on experience", you would understand there is so much more to baseball than stats. Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?

You make some solid points about pitchers' mentality, but I'm not seeing the connection to Correia.

TR says Correia is better than his numbers suggest, implying that KC's got those intangibles you speak of. But if he does have that competitive drive and bulldog mentality that Pavano was praised for, why hasn't it helped him pitch 200 innings once?

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 02:26 PM
It also means management won't learn their lesson regarding that type of player and will feel vindicated that they were right and continue to pursue those types of players.If it turns out they were right, they were right, and should feel vindicated. It seems that no matter how good or bad Correia ends up being he simply proves that the management was offbase in their assessment. That seems pretty ideological to me.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 02:31 PM
I directly quoted from your post, using the very phrases that indicated you are highly dependent on "hope" and "wishful thinking" regarding the Twins near future.You added this. To clarify, there's no hard evidence that the Twins would use their pitching philosophy for acquiring young arms to acquire veteran arms. I simply hope that they will, a reasonable hope, if such players make a major league impact eventually. I never said my thinking about all things Twins was "highly dependent" on hope. That's an insulting extrapolation on your part of what I've said, and it's obvious to anyone actually reading the thread. (Your Sheilds rant certainly seemed misplaced to me.)

Look, I don't like Correia signing, but I don't believe that people who made the decision are The Stupid, so I try to understand what the FO is thinking, and I try to put that in context in both terms of the now and of the future, and I try to arrive at a nuanced assessment of any deal they make. That doesn't mean I'm a pollyannish fool. It's just hard for me to get worked up about Correia signing in a winter when we've acquired two young power arms (May and Meyers), another young mid-rotation guy (Worley), and two risk signings (Pelfry, Harden).

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 02:34 PM
I guess I'm still waiting for you to stop banging your head against the wall and come up with one.

Your constant penchant for perjorative indicates you are in the idea-dearth zone.

I directly quoted from your post, using the very phrases that indicated you are highly dependent on "hope" and "wishful thinking" regarding the Twins near future.

http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/jna/lowres/jnan1257l.jpg

gmarais66
01-23-2013, 02:42 PM
You make some solid points about pitchers' mentality, but I'm not seeing the connection to Correia.

TR says Correia is better than his numbers suggest, implying that KC's got those intangibles you speak of. But if he does have that competitive drive and bulldog mentality that Pavano was praised for, why hasn't it helped him pitch 200 innings once?

I'm saying that from what I've seen, Correia is a similar type of pitcher to Pavano. I'm not sure. Maybe it has something to do with the fact he's a .116 career hitter and he's frequently pulled for a pinch hitter.

johnnydakota
01-23-2013, 02:48 PM
You are completely missing the point, which is what most of you guys do, because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player. I'm saying that Pavano is the type of pitcher, who players had confidence in to keep them in the game (whether he did it or not). More often than not he did do that. When he was on the mound, players knew they had a shot to win. Why? Because he's a tough, experienced pitcher who has that edge that he's not going to give up. You could see it in his face when he was out there on the mound. He hated losing and he wanted to succeed no matter what. Now, a guy like that gives your team confidence. You can't measure that with a stat. If you don't think that's valuable, contrast it with a guy like Liriano. You never know what he's going to do on the mound and when he gets in a jam, his confidence drains. Things compound and get ugly really fast. Over the course of time, players don't have a lot of confidence in a pitcher like that. It shows in their performance on the field. Why battle back, when Liriano will just give up another big inning? If you think this is bs, it's not. I played and coached the game for many years. There are many intangibles that aren't reflected in stats, which affect the outcome of a game and contribute to a player's value. My guess is that you never played the game and stats are all that you have to hold on to in understanding the game. If you had "hands on experience", you would understand there is so much more to baseball than stats. Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?
Hmmm so you believe your the only one who has ever played or coached?

ok me bad

zenser
01-23-2013, 02:49 PM
12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond Did Jeff Gray earn his 6 wins with the Twins?

FrodaddyG
01-23-2013, 02:51 PM
Did Jeff Gray earn his 6 wins with the Twins?
Great pitchers just find a way to win.

johnnydakota
01-23-2013, 02:58 PM
12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

Not counting Diamond , no other twins pitcher started 20 games last year.
Scott started 27 games, hard to have wins with no starts unless you a vulture

snepp
01-23-2013, 03:02 PM
Great pitchers just find a way to win.

He's no Tony Fiore.

Boom Boom
01-23-2013, 03:15 PM
He's no Tony Fiore.

Despite going 0-8 in 2011, Kevin Slowey's still got a great win/loss ratio.

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 03:35 PM
12 Wins - Winning Record (12-11) Bottom Line - Technically he is a winner. If the Twins were one game over .500 - You would say the same - that they were winners?

snepp
01-23-2013, 03:46 PM
"Technically" the Pirates were a winner in the games that Correia recorded a decision.

Brock Beauchamp
01-23-2013, 04:00 PM
12 Wins - Winning Record (12-11) Bottom Line - Technically he is a winner. If the Twins were one game over .500 - You would say the same - that they were winners?

He "won" himself a demotion straight into the bullpen.

If only we could all be winners like Correia.

Kwak
01-23-2013, 04:01 PM
I'd like to jump-in to the discussion of the apparent disconnect of drafting "power-arms" but signing the KC and the leper colony--availibility and cost. There didn't appear to be many "strikeout kings"/power arms in the free-agent market, but there were many "potentials" available in the draft. After the first ten selections in the Rule 4 draft, the slot price drops precipitiously. Berrios, who is likely the first Twins selection that resembled a power pitcher was signed for a paltry sum (I forget what) compared to what a ML FA salary. There appeared to be many other "power arms" available later, and at an even lower price. The FA market had a dearth of "power arms"/strikeout guys with Liriano (?!) being about the least expensive of all of them. I am convinced that besides signing three new pitchers the other part of Ryan's plan was to significantly reduce payroll. These two "goals" clash with each other in the marketplace, so Ryan placed "payroll reduction" at a higher priority than "quality/power-arm/strikeout pitcher" acquisition. Thus, the Twins signed KC.

Brock Beauchamp
01-23-2013, 04:01 PM
He's no Tony Fiore.

****er, beat me to it.

nicksaviking
01-23-2013, 04:02 PM
I'm saying that Pavano is the type of pitcher, who players had confidence in to keep them in the game (whether he did it or not). More often than not he did do that. When he was on the mound, players knew they had a shot to win. Why? Because he's a tough, experienced pitcher who has that edge that he's not going to give up. You could see it in his face when he was out there on the mound. He hated losing and he wanted to succeed no matter what. Now, a guy like that gives your team confidence.

This face?

http://i.usatoday.net/sports/_photos/2012/06/04/Shoulder-strain-sidelines-Twins-Carl-Pavano-FD1JVLHA-x-large.jpg
Or this one?

http://mit.zenfs.com/121/2011/05/PavanoBat.jpg

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 04:10 PM
"Technically" the Pirates were a winner in the games that Correia recorded a decision.

Sounds about right to me - 12 Winning Decisions. Games in which he gave his team a chance to win. That's all any ball player wants while standing on the field. Give "us" a chance. Correia cashed in on 12 of those opportunities thanks to his run support and teammates. That's definitely how winning is done. I'm sure he has no problem acknowledging that, like any great teammate. He will give the Twins a chance to win 12 games this year as well and his teammates will be proud to take the field with him. That's the chemistry TR is talking about. Scott Diamond had the 2nd most run support of any pitcher in MLB last year. Despite his mentioned flaws - teammates played hard for him. Thus he was a winner. I want winners that bring out the best in each other.

mike wants wins
01-23-2013, 04:13 PM
To the poster that said if it works, it was a good decision....that's actually not logic. For example, if you are drunk and drive, and do not die, did you really make the right decision to drive? Should you repeat that decision?

LaBombo
01-23-2013, 04:13 PM
This face?


Or this one?

http://mit.zenfs.com/121/2011/05/PavanoBat.jpg

If you squint a bit, you can actually see the confidence radiating out of Pavano's face and into the confidence-needing eyeball of the teammate in the background...

LaBombo
01-23-2013, 04:18 PM
Scott Diamond had the 2nd most run support of any pitcher in MLB last year. Despite his mentioned flaws - teammates played hard for him. Thus he was a winner. I want winners that bring out the best in each other.

Even the Twins know that getting teammates to score more runs is not a repeatable pitcher skill. Now if you want guys who can consistently improve the opposition's offense, you've come to the right franchise.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 04:24 PM
Sounds about right to me - 12 Winning Decisions. Games in which he gave his team a chance to win. That's all any ball player wants while standing on the field. Give "us" a chance. Correia cashed in on 12 of those opportunities thanks to his run support and teammates. That's definitely how winning is done. I'm sure he has no problem acknowledging that, like any great teammate. He will give the Twins a chance to win 12 games this year as well and his teammates will be proud to take the field with him. That's the chemistry TR is talking about. Scott Diamond had the 2nd most run support of any pitcher in MLB last year. Despite his mentioned flaws - teammates played hard for him. Thus he was a winner. I want winners that bring out the best in each other.

So now we know who the good pitchers are by how many wins they get. AND we know those pitchers are 'winners' cause they get great run support from their teammates, due to said pitcher bringing out the best in them so they 'play hard' for him.

Do I have that right?

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 04:26 PM
He "won" himself a demotion straight into the bullpen.

If only we could all be winners like Correia.

Speak for yourself :) -- I was born a winner like Correia - lol

Winners compete and give their teams a chance to win everytime they touch the field.
I will wait and see what he brings. I hate watching quality slow working pitchers who bring no energy to their teammates and end up losing because they get no run support. I know they are all professionals and are supposed to do their jobs, but everyone knows the games I'm speaking of. Or the guy that never gets run support and you wonder why? Because they are human beings and chemistry is the needed ingredient to make things right - not always money. Give me a flow to the game where teammates are engaged in the moment. That's how everyone flourishes in a winning program.

Don't hold the ball until the shot clock goes down. Work well together, because it's not all about the numbers - It's about winning.

snepp
01-23-2013, 04:30 PM
http://i.imgur.com/kpTtT.gif

Brock Beauchamp
01-23-2013, 04:39 PM
I want winners that bring out the best in each other.

I want talent. The winning generally follows. Baseball is not the NBA where chemistry and complementary styles of play are needed on the same court. This is baseball, where one guy stands at the plate against one pitcher. No amount of cheering from the bench is going to will Drew Butera into hitting that single to win the game but put Mauer in his place and you suddenly have a 35% chance of getting that single.

You're putting waaaaaaaaaayyyyyy too much stock in scrapppppyness and not enough stock in the ability to actually play the game of ****ing baseball.

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 04:46 PM
That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms

Right, in the draft. Not free agency. At some point this team and this front office needs to realize 3 year deals for pitchers are a clear case of "get what you paid for" if that's all you'll do. I think more people are becoming aware that Ryan hasn't changed that tune from the old days of being an actual small market team.

I'm not saying there is nothing prudent about that, but it certainly limits your abilities to improve your club.

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 04:48 PM
So let me get this straight: Correia gets a pass for not being very good because he was flip-flopped to the bullpen from the same organization that made Kevin Slowey out to be evil incarnate for not liking the very same thing?

Huh.

LaBombo
01-23-2013, 04:50 PM
and not enough stock in the ability to actually play [or not play] the game of ****ing baseball.

Fixed for Twins-specific context.

mike wants wins
01-23-2013, 04:52 PM
Thank you Snepp....

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 04:54 PM
I was born a winner like Correia , I hate watching quality pitchers .

Fixed it for ya.

lightfoot789
01-23-2013, 04:55 PM
I agree that chemistry is not all that's needed to win. I do believe that when you don't have the better talent - Chemistry is a MUST
We obviously do not have top end talent throughout this 2013 squad - Thus the need for chemistry at its highest level.

This year we need chemistry - 2014 and beyond we will have both (Chemistry and Talent). And yes winning pitchers win!! No secret there. All of the top run supported pitchers are from excellent hitting teams as well (except Diamond). That is why we need to build a culture of GRINDERS this year and make the most of it with chemistry guys. Guys will fight for other fighters before they fight for the talented SOB who only cares about his numbers. Not that all the missed FA's were the ladder, but that Correia is the Grinder / Fighter that guys will fight for is where I'm coming from. Let's See?

FrodaddyG
01-23-2013, 05:02 PM
I agree that chemistry is not all that's needed to win. I do believe that when you don't have the better talent - Chemistry is a MUST
We obviously do not have top end talent throughout this 2013 squad - Thus the need for chemistry at its highest level.

This year we need chemistry - 2014 and beyond we will have both (Chemistry and Talent). And yes winning pitchers win!! No secret there. All of the top run supported pitchers are from excellent hitting teams as well (except Diamond). That is why we need to build a culture of GRINDERS this year and make the most of it with chemistry guys. Guys will fight for other fighters before they fight for the talented SOB who only cares about his numbers. Not that all the missed FA's were the ladder, but that Correia is the Grinder / Fighter that guys will fight for is where I'm coming from. Let's See?
I know we want to keep Lenny away from the rabbits, but could we add keyboards to the list?

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 05:09 PM
][/FONT]Chemistry is a MUST
We obviously do not have top end talent throughout this 2013 squad - Thus the need for chemistry at its highest level.

I hope Gardy has a f***ing science degree with all this chemistry the team is going to need this year.

How about biology? As in biologically better players.

Steve Lein
01-23-2013, 05:11 PM
I'm saying that from what I've seen, Correia is a similar type of pitcher to Pavano. I'm not sure. Maybe it has something to do with the fact he's a .116 career hitter and he's frequently pulled for a pinch hitter.

Nope.

Whereas Pavano might not always give a "quality start", he was a guy that could recover and go 7 or 8 innings after giving up some runs early. Correia is not, and has never been, an "innings eater," and I find the fact that TR & Company are hoping for this to be laughable. "Innings eaters" do exactly what I said Pavano did, which is even in a "bad" start, he would pitch late into games.

In Pavano's best year with the Twins (2010), he threw over 100 pitches 17 times in 32 starts, and over 90 in 27 of 32 starts. Kevin Correia last year, threw 100+ pitches twice in 28 starts, 90+ in only half of those 28 starts. And the fact he might get pulled for a pinch hitter says more to me about what they expected to have happen if they sent him out for another inning, compared to saying "he didn't throw that many innings because he got pinch hit for". Take for instance another Pirates pitcher, A.J. Burnett. He threw 100+ pitches 18 times in 31 starts last year, and 90+ in 27 of 31. Most would classify A.J. Burnett as a better pitcher, right? I don't see this as a coincidence.

And if you look at Innings pitched during games in the same manner as I do for pitch counts above, you will see the same pattern. Correia has never gone deep into games, which is a trademark of "innings eaters" to me.

ajstolt_09
01-23-2013, 05:14 PM
Its all very true, both ends of it. He MIGHT not have a chance to succeed and his career numbers would suggest that. But also, at $5 million, its not a horrible gamble for a team who coming into the off season, had 1 proven starting pitcher. Its a small gamble just like it was with Marquis last year. If it doesnt work out, it wont be a huge burden to just can the guy. And hopefully we can land Saunders, or maybe Hendricks and Gibson can impress, and we wont need this guy who has no chance to be above a number 5 starter. I would say, call Correia plan C or D...hopefully A or B materialize and work!

FrodaddyG
01-23-2013, 05:16 PM
at $5 million, its not a horrible gamble for a team who coming into the off season, had 1 proven starting pitcher. Its a small gamble just like it was with Marquis last year. If it doesnt work out, it wont be a huge burden to just can the guy.
Well, except for the $5.5M he's also owed in 2014...

GCTF
01-23-2013, 05:16 PM
I think I miss Dankind.

jokin
01-23-2013, 05:40 PM
Pejorative? By calling you smug? Look, it's not at all classy to say "See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge." It's snotty and smug. I'm not attacking you, I'm attacking your tone. You use plenty of pejoratives throughout your post(s), and consistently condescend. Idea-dearth? Come on, man; you have no place to complain about the use of pejoratives.

Look, if you don't think I have any ideas, don't read my posts.

It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...

old nurse
01-23-2013, 05:45 PM
It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...
Thanks, I needed to reminded I lost my son.

ashburyjohn
01-23-2013, 05:50 PM
because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player.

Apparently you want to believe I believe that, despite my using no stats, other than games and innings pitched and this new-fangled one called "the outcome of the game".


Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?

You weren't talking about the 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 games. You asserted that he had some ability to stop giving up runs after giving up five or six. Unfortunately, if you look at the results, this ability doesn't show up. In his good season of 2010, in those six game where he gave up that many runs:

- April 18: (L 10-5) 6 runs in the top of the third, Gardy ran him out there again in the fourth where he lasted one-third more inning and was charged with another run before Burnett came in with the score 6-3
- May 18: (L 11-2) Blue Jays scored 2, 2, 1, and 1 run in the first four innings. Gardy had seen enough and brought in Mahay to start the fifth with the score 6-1
- July 6: (W 7-6) Blue Jays scored 1 in the third and 4 in the fifth to take a 5-2 lead. Twins came back to tie it in the sixth and scored another run to take the lead in the seventh, Pavano then gave up a leadoff homer to tie it up again, and after one more batter Gardy brought in Mijares. Twins came back with another run and Rauch finished with a save
- August 19: (L 11-0) Pavano began the seventh inning behind 5-0 (two in the first, two in the third, one in the fifth), gave up two hits without recording an out to make it 6-0, Perkins came in and eventually allowed the seventh earned run to score
- September 16: (W 8-5) Pavano carried a 6-2 lead into the sixth, gave up two homers and then a double to the first three batters making it 6-4, Gardy replaced him with Mijares and Guerrier who let the runner score to make it 6-5, Twins added two insurance runs in the ninth
- September 25: (L 11-10) Going into the bottom of the fourth leading 5-2, Pavano coughed up the lead by allowing 5. Gardy let him finish the inning then brought in Perkins for the fifth. Twins scored five of their own, then allowed the Tigers to tie it, then they lost in the 13th.

My point is not to demean Pavano - these were his worst games in a very good season. You're the one who said he wasunusually able to battle back. Ron Gardenhire did not seem to share your confidence. I didn't locate any games that year where he gave up 5 runs in, say, the first two innings and then shot goose eggs for six or seven more.

And again, no arcane stats or anything. Just results from games. I approached these with an open mind, looking for evidence for what you asserted. I just don't see it.

This takes a lot of time. I'll let you perform your own research, from here on. Maybe you can find some magic pixie dust in Kevin Correia's game results; I hope you do because I also believe in Terry Ryan and I hope he's made a good signing.

Thrylos
01-23-2013, 06:04 PM
I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

Yep. Terry Ryan brought many World Championships to the Twin Cities and his replacement of Bill Smith made the Twins contenders again last season.

I just hope that the Twins hold him accountable for the club performance but I am not holding my breath after they removed the interim tag after a 96 loss season and let him blame the 99 plus 96 on Jerry and Stelly.

Mark_RM
01-23-2013, 06:52 PM
Maybe the inside info TR is referring to is that KC secretly developed a knuckleball? Second coming of RA Dickey here we come!! We won't even need his winner's attitude...

Thrylos
01-23-2013, 06:58 PM
Maybe the inside info TR is referring to is that KC secretly developed a knuckleball? Second coming of RA Dickey here we come!! We won't even need his winner's attitude...

Dickey? You mean the guy who the aforementioned Twins' scouts and field stuff thought that he will never cut it and they cut him?

Mark_RM
01-23-2013, 07:06 PM
Dickey? You mean the guy who the aforementioned Twins' scouts and field stuff thought that he will never cut it and they cut him?

But that was before Dickey knew how to win.

LaBombo
01-23-2013, 07:08 PM
But that was before Dickey knew how to win.

Sweet.

Alex
01-23-2013, 07:26 PM
Apparently you want to believe I believe that, despite my using no stats, other than games and innings pitched and this new-fangled one called "the outcome of the game".



You weren't talking about the 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 games. You asserted that he had some ability to stop giving up runs after giving up five or six. Unfortunately, if you look at the results, this ability doesn't show up. In his good season of 2010, in those six game where he gave up that many runs:

- April 18: (L 10-5) 6 runs in the top of the third, Gardy ran him out there again in the fourth where he lasted one-third more inning and was charged with another run before Burnett came in with the score 6-3
- May 18: (L 11-2) Blue Jays scored 2, 2, 1, and 1 run in the first four innings. Gardy had seen enough and brought in Mahay to start the fifth with the score 6-1
- July 6: (W 7-6) Blue Jays scored 1 in the third and 4 in the fifth to take a 5-2 lead. Twins came back to tie it in the sixth and scored another run to take the lead in the seventh, Pavano then gave up a leadoff homer to tie it up again, and after one more batter Gardy brought in Mijares. Twins came back with another run and Rauch finished with a save
- August 19: (L 11-0) Pavano began the seventh inning behind 5-0 (two in the first, two in the third, one in the fifth), gave up two hits without recording an out to make it 6-0, Perkins came in and eventually allowed the seventh earned run to score
- September 16: (W 8-5) Pavano carried a 6-2 lead into the sixth, gave up two homers and then a double to the first three batters making it 6-4, Gardy replaced him with Mijares and Guerrier who let the runner score to make it 6-5, Twins added two insurance runs in the ninth
- September 25: (L 11-10) Going into the bottom of the fourth leading 5-2, Pavano coughed up the lead by allowing 5. Gardy let him finish the inning then brought in Perkins for the fifth. Twins scored five of their own, then allowed the Tigers to tie it, then they lost in the 13th.

My point is not to demean Pavano - these were his worst games in a very good season. You're the one who said he wasunusually able to battle back. Ron Gardenhire did not seem to share your confidence. I didn't locate any games that year where he gave up 5 runs in, say, the first two innings and then shot goose eggs for six or seven more.

And again, no arcane stats or anything. Just results from games. I approached these with an open mind, looking for evidence for what you asserted. I just don't see it.

This takes a lot of time. I'll let you perform your own research, from here on. Maybe you can find some magic pixie dust in Kevin Correia's game results; I hope you do because I also believe in Terry Ryan and I hope he's made a good signing.

Yeah, but this information is just an accurate record of what happened. They don't tell the emotions, intangibles, or mystical connections Pavano and his teammates used (or failed to use) that won or lost the game . Perhaps the other team's wizards were just better that day and besides, if I remember it differently, your numbers don't matter.

/sarcasm

*To be clear, I understand that there are intangibles and that scouts certainly have access to information we statheads (some of us former baseball players and coaches, too) don't, but on some level, especially after 10 years in the case of Correia, I'd think they -- or their influence-- would show up in results. I also think that PIT wouldn't have demoted him to the bullpen if they thought he had these intangibles. Or, they would have traded him to another team that saw them if they, you know, actually existed.

@ashburyjohn, seriously, great work and research is always appreciated.

Fire Dan Gladden
01-23-2013, 07:55 PM
Here is how the Twins offseason has gone so far:

Write a Twins article bashing the Twins approach.
Write a Twins article bashing the Correia signing.
Repeat.
Can something please happen so we have something new to talk about?

Dear Spring Training,

Please come soon.

FDG

old nurse
01-23-2013, 07:59 PM
Did those that continuously bash here do much the same at BYTO and other sites when the Twins were winning?

Thrylos
01-23-2013, 08:02 PM
Did those that continuously bash here do much the same at BYTO and other sites when the Twins were winning?

Last time the Twins won (1991) the internet(s) was in Al Gore's mind :)

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 08:10 PM
Can something please happen so we have something new to talk about?



FDG

Like signing a quality baseball player, preferably one who pitches?

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 08:22 PM
When Ryan or Gardy does something worth kudos, they get kudos. When they do something highly suspect or just off the wall wacky, they get slammed. It comes with the job. They're big boys. I love how every time someone is being realistic, and the realism isn't kudos, that someone is labeled negative. Being realistic isn't always about being negative. Doesn't make anyone less of a fan...especially if they are giving a solid argument...whether or not you agree with the argument or not.

Nick Nelson
01-23-2013, 08:28 PM
Here is how the Twins offseason has gone so far:

Write a Twins article bashing the Twins approach.
Write a Twins article bashing the Correia signing.
Repeat.
Can something please happen so we have something new to talk about?

Dear Spring Training,

Please come soon.

FDG
Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 08:30 PM
Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

Well, some apparently don't mind at all...

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 08:32 PM
It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...Burn!

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 08:33 PM
Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

LaBombo
01-23-2013, 08:39 PM
There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

How about limiting that to positive marks for just the moves designed to improve the Twins for the future? Cleaner that way, with no need to balance future-building moves against the likes of KC and the Sunshine Band of merry back-o'-the-rotation misfits.

Nick Nelson
01-23-2013, 08:48 PM
There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.
Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.

Alex
01-23-2013, 08:51 PM
There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

Most people liked the trades, but I think to actually get positive marks, you need to make solid improvements in the major league team. What this offseason hasn't come with major question marks, heck, even including the trades?

Worley recently had surgery,
Meyer and May may not turn out to be starters.
Every pitcher we signed is either a #5 starter or is coming off of significant injury.
They spent no money to improve other positions (middle infield?)
They now have a big hole in center (though again, I'm fine with the trades) and drastically weakened their OF defense.

There's no way this offseason could look positive overall right now. In two years, we could be saying it was better, but we could also be saying it was a disaster.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 08:54 PM
There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

If one chooses to focus on the future, sure. No doubt. Reason to be hopeful with Meyer and May. Key word, hopeful. Nothing is sure. No way to guarantee these moves end up well. But hope...

When it comes to the current team though, that's where it gets dicey...and that's hard to swallow after the last two years we've had AND getting the new ballpark...the new ballpark that was supposed to stop us from cutting payroll the way we have. That's also hard to swallow when we have so many holes to fill.

snepp
01-23-2013, 09:02 PM
People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

Barney Stinson approves of this post.

PseudoSABR
01-23-2013, 09:27 PM
Look, I agree the Twins plan for 2013 looks pretty muddled, but they did acquire Worley and bought low on guys like Pelfry and Harden. Yes, meager given the FAs available and when combined with Correia gives a whole bucketful of meh.

But these moves didn't occur in isolation, by acquiring Meyers and Mays, the Twins blew away my expectations in what they'd get in future pitching assets. Especially without trading Morneau or Willingham (which is a boon toward 2013, if even a zero-sum non-move).

My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 09:37 PM
Look, I agree the Twins plan for 2013 looks pretty muddled, but they did acquire Worley and bought low on guys like Pelfry and Harden. Yes, meager given the FAs available and when combined with Correia gives a whole bucketful of meh.

But these moves didn't occur in isolation, by acquiring Meyers and Mays, the Twins blew away my expectations in what they'd get in future pitching assets. Especially without trading Morneau or Willingham (which is a boon toward 2013, if even a zero-sum non-move).

My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

Well, for me, I've always felt Ryan knows exactly what he's doing...

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 09:42 PM
My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward.

What, exactly, should give us hope? Ryan is going to suddenly change his tune? Hell, people thought that about THIS offseason. It's part of the fuel for everyone's annoyance - they wanted to believe this would be different. But it's the same Ryan we've known for many years.

You're welcome to be hopeful about it. But to quote someone else - we have 10 years of the exact opposite, making that hope completely and utterly baseless.

Alex
01-23-2013, 09:51 PM
My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings.

However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but they don't exactly have a staff that shows it is. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker).

Considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins have really done anything to disprove this narrative -- a narrative that is the sum total of all of these things and for which Correia's signing (not even him as much as the contract) becomes a lightning rod for it.

Nick Nelson
01-23-2013, 09:53 PM
That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching).
There's a pretty big gap between signing Kevin Correia and a "big splash." You're overstating people's expectations. And while I'm certainly willing to admit that some of the pitchers who signed for more than Correia will be mediocre back-end pitchers, not all will. I'd like to think the Twins' evaluators could put together an educated guess. That is their job, right?


There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.
It's not that I think they don't know what they're doing. I'm sure they have a plan in place. But the fact that their plan causes a hardcore fans like yourself to "shrug (your) shoulders at the present" is beyond disappointing and an insult to guys like Mauer and Morneau if they go out and put together big years.

jokin
01-23-2013, 09:56 PM
There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.


Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.

Nick, this is a post where I am in full agreement with you, don't forget, in addition to the $25M, they also were freed up from their commitment to Span, so, they had well over $30M to build for the future- and build some enthusiasm and hope for the present- cynically choosing not to do so....this from a team that promised us the days of being unable to compete with the big-market teams was over.

BTW, there's a "boy in the plastic bubble" just above you, apparently lightheaded from the rarefied air pumping through his very own homer dome. Pseudo, I enjoy conversing with you, but this time you've gone 2 compressed oxygen tanks of "positivity" too far.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 09:57 PM
The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings.

However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker). Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins haven't really done anything to disprove this narrative -- the narrative is the sum total of all of these things.

Those FA signings were nice. Predictable, but nice. Willingham replaced Cuddy, Doumit replaced Kubel. They weren't building onto what we have, they were filling departures. And yes, they cut payroll....which I'd give they credit for if they used those savings to continue to build a contender instead of pocketing it. So, I mean, I can't give them credit on the payroll cutting part of the equation

SpiritofVodkaDave
01-23-2013, 09:58 PM
Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

Alex
01-23-2013, 10:03 PM
Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

.

No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 10:08 PM
Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future

Not sure anyone is suggesting that. But I'd love Marcum for at least the chance that he'd have a great season and be traded at the deadline for more future ammo. It beats the inevitable "Getting Willingham back from an injury is just like making a trade!" that we'll be doing on Aug. 1.

In all seriousness, even if you can't improve to a playoff level, putting that 30M into talent gives the team many, many more options both in the immediate future and the near future. And given what will be done with the money otherwise, I don't think that's much to ask.

Alex
01-23-2013, 10:08 PM
Those FA signings were nice. Predictable, but nice. Willingham replaced Cuddy, Doumit replaced Kubel. They weren't building onto what we have, they were filling departures. And yes, they cut payroll....which I'd give they credit for if they used those savings to continue to build a contender instead of pocketing it. So, I mean, I can't give them credit on the payroll cutting part of the equation

My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate.

I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 10:14 PM
My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate.

I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.

I understood what you were saying, I'm just saying, for me, I only give credit for the savings if that money is put back into the payroll. I mean, yeah, from a bottom line financial look, sure...but as a fan, taking that money and putting it in their pockets...

In other words, I wasn't really meaning to take a shot at you...just saying how I looked at it.

As far as Doumit's role. I believe when he was signed, the point was to replace Kubel. When the doctors came out and said Morny needs to cut down in the field for awhile to avoid concussion symptoms coming back, the plan changed since that made Mauer needing to play 1B more (as the best option to do so)

SpiritofVodkaDave
01-23-2013, 10:15 PM
No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.

If you don't have a team that you can build that can conceivably win 90-92 games, then what is the point of spending a bunch of improving them to be a 78-84 win team best case scenario? If Hicks/Gibson/etc come out and look good, then you take a run at things! You don't just waste money on 2-3 year contracts at this point for the sake of trying to compete if everything goes right. I agree that they should have signed some more one year contracts, and I still think they should go after guys like Marcum/Saunders/Kelly Johnson on such deals.

If anything, I give Ryan credit for realizing this is most likely a rebuilding year, instead of going out and trying to just make a bunch of bad signings (Correia excluded- but even his contract isn't that bad relatively)

Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

SpiritofVodkaDave
01-23-2013, 10:18 PM
Not sure anyone is suggesting that. But I'd love Marcum for at least the chance that he'd have a great season and be traded at the deadline for more future ammo. It beats the inevitable "Getting Willingham back from an injury is just like making a trade!" that we'll be doing on Aug. 1.

In all seriousness, even if you can't improve to a playoff level, putting that 30M into talent gives the team many, many more options both in the immediate future and the near future. And given what will be done with the money otherwise, I don't think that's much to ask.

I'm not sure signing a guy with the sole idea of "Well if he does well we will trade him!" is a really sound baseball idea (maybe I am wrong) but at the end of the day, most deadline deals over the past few years haven't been including any real stud packages of prospects, and Marcum even at his best won't command such a return IMO

Don't get me wrong, I still think they should sign Marcum, as I have been stating for months, but if you are doing it in hopes of dealing him at the deadline, I think you are at that point better off using that money to pump into scouting, international signings etc. If you want to sign him in order to stablize the rotation and "go for it" then I am 110% in.

I look at the contracts signed this off-season and I don't see a ton where I am like "damn the Twins really missed out on that!" Also, I think the Span and Revere trades netted them some of the best talent in the trade market this off-season (besides the Bauer trade- I really, really, wish they would have gone after a Bauer or Johnson)

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 10:20 PM
If you don't have a team that you can build that can conceivably win 90-92 games, then what is the point of spending a bunch of improving them to be a 78-84 win team best case scenario? If Hicks/Gibson/etc come out and look good, then you take a run at things! You don't just waste money on 2-3 year contracts at this point for the sake of trying to compete if everything goes right. I agree that they should have signed some more one year contracts, and I still think they should go after guys like Marcum/Saunders/Kelly Johnson on such deals.

If anything, I give Ryan credit for realizing this is most likely a rebuilding year, instead of going out and trying to just make a bunch of bad signings (Correia excluded- but even his contract isn't that bad relatively)

Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

How about to give the fans reason for optimism...to put a product somewhat worthy of the fans...to at least TRY and fulfill your promises...and it's not like those players signed aren't assets as well..

Why does it have to be between title contender and dregs of the AL?

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 10:23 PM
Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.

But they won't, haven't you been listening?

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 10:24 PM
I'm not sure signing a guy with the sole idea of "Well if he does well we will trade him!" is a really sound baseball idea (maybe I am wrong) but at the end of the day, most deadline deals over the past few years haven't been including any real stud packages of prospects, and Marcum even at his best won't command such a return IMO

Like I said, at the very least it gives us that. Potentially adding him gives us more upside than that. I would've taken Baker over Pelfrey. How about Haren on a one year shot? Brandon McCarthy over Correia? How about a year or two for Drew? Dave, there were plenty of ways to eat up some of that cash that will now be pocketed that would add talent to this team without crippling the future.

jokin
01-23-2013, 10:27 PM
Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

Absolutely. It's the obvious move, the right move, the affordable move (even with an overbid to get him), which is why they won't do it.

I don't think anyone is under any illusions that the Twins can make a worst-to-first run like in 1990. An aggressive attempt to get Shields in trade w/ an extension, plus a 2nd tier signee like Marcum should have been doable and would have produced an-above average rotation and still left room to get some MI help with a $100M payroll. This would have meant no Meyer, but still would have left the door open for acquiring Worley and May. This would have been more than enough elixir to provide the true "hope" and "positivity" that the homers are falsely claiming has been achieved this offseason

Ultima Ratio
01-23-2013, 10:27 PM
How about to give the fans reason for optimism...to put a product somewhat worthy of the fans...to at least TRY and fulfill your promises...and it's not like those players signed aren't assets as well..

Why does it have to be between title contender and dregs of the AL?

Agreed. With the money available they certainly could have fielded a team that was capable of staying within 10 games through August. And with luck and injuries in the division, who knows. As is, this team will almost necessarily suck again this year, and that is not what was promised.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 10:29 PM
Like I said, at the very least it gives us that. Potentially adding him gives us more upside than that. I would've taken Baker over Pelfrey. How about Haren on a one year shot? Brandon McCarthy over Correia? How about a year or two for Drew? Dave, there were plenty of ways to eat up some of that cash that will now be pocketed that would add talent to this team without crippling the future.

I don't understand how adding players that would add 20-25M to payroll for the next three years would cripple this team with the amount of payroll coming off in the next two years...

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 10:32 PM
I don't understand how adding players that would add 20-25M to payroll for the next three years would cripple this team with the amount of payroll coming off in the next two years...

Nor do I.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 10:33 PM
Nor do I.

Yet people keep using it in their argument...

old nurse
01-23-2013, 10:37 PM
Knowing what contracts and trades have happened thus far in MLB, I would really like to hear one of the "Derp the Twins have screwed the pooch this off-season again!" folks lay out a plan on how they would turn this team from a 95 loss team to a 92 win team this off-season (without giving up the future)

I'm all ears. (Keep in mind that it's highly unlikely that a guy like Dan Haren would have signed here over Washigton for the same contract (for very obvious reasons) so if you are going to include a guy like him in the plan, make sure you take on some extra dollars)

At the end of the day, the only way the Twins compete is if they get some HUGE contributions from young players like Hicks, Gibson, Dozier and Plouffe. And if Mauer/Morneau/Willingham can all stay healthy and mash. Replacing a guy like Correia with Myers isn't going to be the difference between a 90 loss year and a 90 win year FYI.

FWIW: I'd still like to see the Twins bring in Marcum. At least then you have a pitching staff that if a few things break right could end up around league average.

I would have been real interested in knowing how much it would take to overpay a mid level talent free agent to go to a last place team two years running. Willingham and the others came to a team that had won the division two years before. There was no reason to think a pitching staff could implode twice..

jokin
01-23-2013, 10:38 PM
Best case scenario is guys like Hendriks/Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Pelfrey/Parmelee/Hicks/Morneau/Plouffe/Dozier etc all preform well out of the gate, THEN you can go out and try to add some more pieces if necessary.



But they won't, haven't you been listening?

Gibson, Pelfrey and Hicks quite possibly won't even be on the 25-man out of the gate. Worley probably will, but is coming off of September elbow surgery, so his initial level of effectiveness is in some doubt. Would a breakout opening to the season with the rest of this list cause the Twins to go out and acquire more pieces and jeopardize the "plan" for the future? Unlikely. I dion't think anyone's saying "they won't" have a chance to play above expectations, but the FO hasn't exactly done the things needed to have another option beside the "best-case scenario" to be even incrementally better than last year.

twinsnorth49
01-23-2013, 10:40 PM
Yet people keep using it in their argument...

I've read every post in this thread, I didn't read a single one that made this arguement.

jokin
01-23-2013, 10:41 PM
Yet people keep using it in their argument...

.....And at first, kept attacking those who stayed steadfast in their prediction that they were going into slo-mo payroll immolation, promises notwithstanding.

TheLeviathan
01-23-2013, 10:41 PM
I would have been real interested in knowing how much it would take to overpay a mid level talent free agent to go to a last place team two years running. Willingham and the others came to a team that had won the division two years before. There was no reason to think a pitching staff could implode twice..

So not adding talent and being content with that.....somehow changes that trend? Please explain.

ThePuck
01-23-2013, 10:47 PM
I've read every post in this thread, I didn't read a single one that made this arguement.

This argument has been all over this site...not just this thread.

Mark_RM
01-23-2013, 10:47 PM
Hopefully in 6 years 3 top-5 draft picks makes all of our angst somewhat worthwhile...
Trying to grasp at some positive straws after rereading the Mackey article.

jokin
01-23-2013, 10:57 PM
Hopefully in 6 years 3 top-5 draft picks makes all of our angst somewhat worthwhile...
Trying to grasp at some positive straws after rereading the Mackey article.

That's a long, long grasp for positivity straws ....2019? The days of 5000 angst-ridden remaining fans in the stands would be upon us way before then...

beckmt
01-24-2013, 12:16 AM
Does anyone think that having Swarzak on this team will make a difference. The change will come when the lightweights are gone(read 2014). Gardinhire already knows that if the young players do not start with the big team if they have decent spring trainings, that this season is lost

old nurse
01-24-2013, 06:43 AM
An aggressive attempt to get Shields in trade w/ an extension, n and still left room to get some MI help with a $100M payroll. This would have meant no Meyer, but still would have left the door open for acquiring Worley and May. This would have been more than enough elixir to provide the true "hope" and "positivity" that the homers are falsely claiming has been achieved this offseason

Denard Span for Shields? Compared to what KC gave up. Get a reality check.
What middle infielder who could hit had any sort of range left that was available on the free agent market this year? Go ahead and be snide and tell me who I missed.

old nurse
01-24-2013, 06:47 AM
Yet people keep using it in their argument...

That argument was used lst year and the year before. Your statement does explain a lot

ThePuck
01-24-2013, 07:36 AM
That argument was used lst year and the year before. Your statement does explain a lot

And this year, very often. I'm not sure I follow what you're getting at?

old nurse
01-24-2013, 08:10 AM
And this year, very often. I'm not sure I follow what you're getting at?

you can argue one way or the other that the total player payroll limited the Twins in 2012 and before. That debate still goes on. I have not seen a payroll is near the limit in any post for 2013 or beyond.

ThePuck
01-24-2013, 09:02 AM
you can argue one way or the other that the total player payroll limited the Twins in 2012 and before. That debate still goes on. I have not seen a payroll is near the limit in any post for 2013 or beyond.

I've seen quite a few argue about how signing 3 year contracts will cripple our ability to sign others in the next couple years when we'll supposedly be competing. Not on this thread necessarily, but a few others. The last three years payroll has been fine...in the next quite a few it should be real low.

And just for giggles, I liked how people keep talking about how Mauer's payroll is gonna cripple us because of the percentage of payroll his salary takes up and I'm like, well, if payroll keeps dropping, that percentage will keep going up :-)

drivlikejehu
01-24-2013, 09:11 AM
It's a scary read. Maybe the worst part is when he talks about ancient scouting reports from Correia's time in SF and SD (when he still mostly sucked, though in a somewhat different way).

I just hope TR stops with the excuses when his Correia experiment fails gruesomely.

Brock Beauchamp
01-24-2013, 09:25 AM
An aggressive attempt to get Shields in trade w/ an extension, plus a 2nd tier signee like Marcum should have been doable and would have produced an-above average rotation and still left room to get some MI help with a $100M payroll. This would have meant no Meyer, but still would have left the door open for acquiring Worley and May. This would have been more than enough elixir to provide the true "hope" and "positivity" that the homers are falsely claiming has been achieved this offseason

Look at what KC gave up for Shields. The absolute dumbest thing the Twins could be doing right now is playing that game. Trading away top-shelf prospects for a starter when you're coming off back-to-back 90+ loss seasons is not a winning formula. I was all for trying to pry Shields away from Tampa but after seeing what KC gave up for the guy, there is no way the Twins should have been in the mix... It would have required Span and Sano to get him at that point. Not smart.

whydidnt
01-24-2013, 09:32 AM
Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.

And where is the Twins track record of being able to identify these previously unseen skills in pitchers, was it Marquis? Ponson? R.Martinez, Hernandez, etc. The Twins don't have a track record of "fixing" pitchers with poor skill set, if anything, many of them get worse when the arrive here and then rebound slightly when moving on somewhere else.

jokin
01-24-2013, 03:06 PM
Look at what KC gave up for Shields. The absolute dumbest thing the Twins could be doing right now is playing that game. Trading away top-shelf prospects for a starter when you're coming off back-to-back 90+ loss seasons is not a winning formula. I was all for trying to pry Shields away from Tampa but after seeing what KC gave up for the guy, there is no way the Twins should have been in the mix... It would have required Span and Sano to get him at that point. Not smart.

I dunno. Your statement implies that Meyer is a sure thing. Sano definitely isn't even a sure thing at this point. Both have question marks left to erase from their resumes. Wil Myers was far closer to a sure thing and the trade would have looked even better if Twins could have found a way to get Wade Davis in the deal- he has turned out to be a top-notch set-up man.

I would say getting Shields locked up to the end of his effective career would have been the bridge to the next wave of talent, improved the immediate outlook, affordably, over 2013 and 14- and encouraged the rest of the players in the league to sit up and take notice that the Twins are serious about becoming relevant again.

By direct contrast to the basket of question marks in paragraph one, Shields is pretty much a sure thing. He's averaged nearly 4.0 WAR over the last 6 seasons, giving you 200+ quality innings and 33 starts (5 years in a row) standing on his head. Only 4 guys have pitched more innings during that time. Shields is very cheap for '13 and '14. He just turned 31 in December, which means a 4-year extension out to 2018 would have Shields at the top of the rotation through his age 36 year, fit within the very low projected payroll after 2014, coincide when the impact prospects are becoming key (and very cheap!) key cogs in 2015, AND close his contract out the same year as Mauer.

Did I mention that it now will be much easier to match or exceed his numbers pitching in the AL Central vs. the meat-grinding AL East, plus the addition of at least a couple starts vs. the Astros?

ashburyjohn
01-25-2013, 12:10 PM
I've seen quite a few argue about how signing 3 year contracts will cripple our ability to sign others in the next couple years when we'll supposedly be competing. Not on this thread necessarily, but a few others. The last three years payroll has been fine...in the next quite a few it should be real low.

Maybe some argue that, but I don't think that's how Ryan is approaching it. I'm more or less repeating myself from past posts. Say the window for contending opens in 2015, with 2014 as a "transition year", and in 2015 the current salary commitments are essentially Mauer plus rookies and a few contracts like Perkins. I'll concentrate on starting pitching. So you have a lot of flexibility for 2015 and forward, until some of the youngsters start to earn the arbitration dough. Do you commit some of that flexibility now, because some free agent is so desirable that only a 3-year or higher commitment will land him (and you want him for that long or longer because he's so good)? Doing that, you accept the risk that he blows out his arm in 2013 or 2014. If instead you wait until the next off-season, other valuable free agents will come along, and then you are only risking 2014 in the hope of getting a good pitcher for 2015 and onward. And, if you wait another offseason, now you can sign someone good, to a 3-year contract that covers years of actual contention, and without assuming any degree of risk for the dead years of 2013-14. Of course, the risk is always there for as long as a pitcher is under contract, but it's the question of potential reward in exchange for that risk: making 2013 marginally better toward a .500 club, or pushing the 2015-16 team over the top. So, the way I was hoping Ryan would do it is try to make 2013 marginally better through 1- and 2-year signings. Correia is the right length of contract in this view, I just don't think he was the right guy.

It's not like a signing now might downright cripple the 2015 team. But a signing later on may prove to be more able to address the needs at that time.

ThePuck
01-25-2013, 12:21 PM
Maybe some argue that, but I don't think that's how Ryan is approaching it. I'm more or less repeating myself from past posts. Say the window for contending opens in 2015, with 2014 as a "transition year", and in 2015 the current salary commitments are essentially Mauer plus rookies and a few contracts like Perkins. I'll concentrate on starting pitching. So you have a lot of flexibility for 2015 and forward, until some of the youngsters start to earn the arbitration dough. Do you commit some of that flexibility now, because some free agent is so desirable that only a 3-year or higher commitment will land him (and you want him for that long or longer because he's so good)? Doing that, you accept the risk that he blows out his arm in 2013 or 2014. If instead you wait until the next off-season, other valuable free agents will come along, and then you are only risking 2014 in the hope of getting a good pitcher for 2015 and onward. And, if you wait another offseason, now you can sign someone good, to a 3-year contract that covers years of actual contention, and without assuming any degree of risk for the dead years of 2013-14. Of course, the risk is always there for as long as a pitcher is under contract, but it's the question of potential reward in exchange for that risk: making 2013 marginally better toward a .500 club, or pushing the 2015-16 team over the top. So, the way I was hoping Ryan would do it is try to make 2013 marginally better through 1- and 2-year signings. Correia is the right length of contract in this view, I just don't think he was the right guy.

It's not like a signing now might downright cripple the 2015 team. But a signing later on may prove to be more able to address the needs at that time.

Whenever you sign anyone you take on risk...no matter what time frame of team building you're at. Twins can afford to take on those kind of risks from now till likely 2016, 2017 without hindering the team in the least...at any year...cause payroll is just going to drop next year and the year after and the year after that...Morny, Carroll, Blackburn, Willigham, Doumit...all that payroll is gone by 2015 season....being replaced by very cheap players coming up.

And signing a guy to a three year contract now, won't hurt any ability to sign people from 2016 on...they'll be off the books by then....and payroll will still be low. There is zero downside. None.

Willihammer
01-25-2013, 12:25 PM
Say the window for contending opens in 2015

Say the Tigers are the 2013 version of the 2011 Twins.