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Nick Nelson
01-10-2013, 11:09 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1298-Under-Delivering

Top Gun
01-10-2013, 11:27 PM
Ryan insisted that the Twins would pursue (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/175344981.html) a "pretty darn good pitcher" in free agency. In a subsequent interview with MLB Network (http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25519603&topic_id=8877600&c_id=min), he responded to a question from Ken Rosenthal about his apparent rebuilding approach by saying, "I think that's a good excuse to fail, Kenny. I don't have much interest in telling people we're playing for 2015. We need to get going here, we've had two tough years… We've got to quit talking about building for the future." Correia??

johnnydakota
01-10-2013, 11:33 PM
Dementia?

Highabove
01-11-2013, 12:32 AM
Next year, Justin Morneau's 14 million will be coming off the books. This may drop the payroll into the 60's. Very little room available to sign quality Pitching.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 01:29 AM
Would you be happy if we were the 2012 Angels? Spend happy with the same results as Twins = home for playoffs? We are a small market team that is looking to compete this year and go back to the Twins Way for the next 10 years. The Twins have and will only be = good year in and year out = when they utilize the Draft and Trades. The Angels were never truly "in it" despite the rookie excitement of Trout. My advice is TRUST T.R. and see where he takes us in the next 2-3 years? Hard to do for a spoiled group of fans who have been the best small market team in MLB over the last 20+ years (thru draft & trades). Allow the train to get back on track and get to MN on time or you will derail it again and for good!!

Highabove
01-11-2013, 02:29 AM
Are we back to being a Small Market Team?

I must have missed the Memo.

snepp
01-11-2013, 02:32 AM
Are we back to being a Small Market Team?.

Apparently, because that fits the "defend the front office for the continually plunging payroll" narrative.

Grady Kruse
01-11-2013, 05:16 AM
I hate to defend Terry Ryan because I'm as frustrated as you guys are, but I think he had every intention of signing better starting pitchers. The market just went too high in a hurry. The Correia move was one of desperation. He figured they needed to get someone with a pulse since the other guys were too expensive for them.

mike wants wins
01-11-2013, 08:16 AM
The market went where the market was expected to go, when you realize every team is getting 25 million more in revenue next year. What is the baseball inflation adjusted salary relative to the dome years, anyone know?

mike wants wins
01-11-2013, 08:18 AM
Out if curiosity, why were the other guys too expensive? And does anyone think wages will be less in the coming years?

zenser
01-11-2013, 08:28 AM
[QUOTE=lightfoot789;75720] The Angels were never truly "in it" despite the rookie excitement of Trout. QUOTE] They were 2 back in the wild card on Sept 24 with 9 games to play. They were playing very meaningful games in September.

Jim Crikket
01-11-2013, 08:29 AM
Yeah, I've pretty much reached the "it is what it is, so let's move on and see what happens" stage of the offseason, but for anyone to still be referring to the Twins as "small market" is kind of sad. The Twins were NEVER "small market". The Twin Cities are, by pretty much any measure among MLB cities, "middle market," and have been for ages. They were a mid-market team that had small-market-like revenue streams and thus had to operate like a small market team. Those days are over. They are now officially a middle market team with middle market revenues... that has apparently resumed operating as a small market team with Terry Ryan's re-emergence as GM. I also think it's absurd to suggest that the only option to what we've seen this off-season was to be the 2012 Angels and throw money down a drain.

Grady may well be right about Ryan genuinely wanting to get better pitchers initially. But the whole idea of prices escalating beyond expectations would only be accurate if the Twins' expectations were absurdly unrealistic.

Knotholemike
01-11-2013, 09:00 AM
Next year, Justin Morneau's 14 million will be coming off the books. This may drop the payroll into the 60's. Very little room available to sign quality Pitching.

And Blackburn's $5.5M, and Jamie Caroll, Pelfry, etc. the payroll liability for the Twins in 2014 right now is more like in the low 40s. This boggles my mind since there are no impending large arbitration awards on the horizon. The only explanation I could see is that Ryan believes none of the pitchers that got multi-year deals was worth it. I know I would feel a lot better if they signed Shaun Marcum to a 2-year deal at $8-10M per year. Clearly he has not signed because no one wants to give him a long-term contract or more money. This would not break the bank and he would be a great fit for Target Field so it is puzzling.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 09:08 AM
Small market is when Free Agents don't see you as a true option. Top free agents are always hesitant to go to towns like Twins - Brewers - KC - because they don't view those cities as Major entertainment type cities. Especially younger free agents. Established vets view every city as an option. Just my opinion. So yeah I believe you are viewed as Small Market in the eyes of Free Agents.

Top Gun
01-11-2013, 09:10 AM
You can't expect to get pitching for nothing.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 09:23 AM
The Angels won 89 games in the toughest division in baseball last year, winning more games than our division winner, and that somehow equates to the Twins having the worst record in baseball just because neither team made the playoffs?

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 09:28 AM
The market went where the market was expected to go, when you realize every team is getting 25 million more in revenue next year. What is the baseball inflation adjusted salary relative to the dome years, anyone know?

Our payroll in 2007 was a 71.4M...regular inflation makes that just under 80M today. That's where our current payroll sits. And players salaries have gone up at a higher rate than standard inflation.

Seth Stohs
01-11-2013, 09:29 AM
I'm not going to defend Mr. Ryan for not getting someone like Jackson at that price, but I'm good with not giving some of the contracts that have been given. And, I'm very hopeful for Liam Hendriks to take a step forward in 2013. I'm very excited to see how Kyle Gibson does as he breaks into the big leagues. Can Scott Diamond come close to duplicating his 2012 season? What do the Twins really have in Alex Meyer and Trevor May? How quickly can some of those college relievers get up here? Will Anthony Slama get a chance? There are reasons for optimism, and that's not even talking about the likes of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee and others. I certainly wouldn't give up on Brian Dozier at this point.

I don't think the Twins were legitimately going to compete in 2013 regardless. Detroit is too good. But I am very excited about the direction of the team. And frankly, young, talented players are much more valuable than just spending money to spend money.

Sometimes I feel like a few people would be happier if the Twins would have given Correia 2 years and $50 million because then the payroll would be back at $100 million and "at least the Pohlad's won't pocket it."

old nurse
01-11-2013, 09:36 AM
It became apparent a long time ago that no first or second tier healthy free agent would sign here. Any analysis of why an optimistic start of free agency went so horribly wrong is lacking. "I blame Terry Ryan" appears to be the call of the fans. He is the GM. Nick merely continues the rant without analysis of how things come to be and others join in.
What is the process for signing a player with the Twins? Were the Twins estimates as far off as the knowledgeable fans here were? How quickly did they react? Does Ryan have free reign to spend 90 million? I have a suspicion that the Pohlads have to approve of any contract over 5 million given how the offseason went. Does the process the Twins use hurt them in signing players? Nobody asks the players if the Twins contacted them. Maybe it is because they wouldn't trust the player to be honest with an answer if one were obtained at all. The journalists don't look for the factors involved, they just push the blame Ryan bandwagon.

To say that the Twins are a large or mid market team is to ignore the paltry money earned from cable. As the newness of the stadium wears off, the revenue streams from it will be less.

USAFChief
01-11-2013, 09:48 AM
It became apparent a long time ago that no first or second tier healthy free agent would sign here.

Repeat ridiculous talking point enough times, someone eventually might believe you.

Do you by any chance work for Fox News?

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 09:48 AM
From Feb 10 interview with Jim Pohlad, Owner Jim Pohlad reiterates Minnesota Twins' desire to retain catcher Joe Mauer - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4897494)

"I think Target Field puts us in better position to make sure that we have a competitive team from year to year," Pohlad said Monday. "Names will come and names will go, but overall the objective is always to have the best team on the field."

The Pohlad family has consistently followed a model of keeping the annual player payroll pegged to 50 percent of team revenue, though in rebuilding years it's fallen well below that. At the Metrodome, there wasn't as much money coming in. This year, though, the payroll will rise by roughly $30 million to a team record above $95 million.

"All new ballparks have their peaks, and I'm sure the initial years will be very good to the Twins," Pohlad said. "Then it'll be up to us to sustain it after that, but the ballpark itself I think can sustain it for a long time."

In a question-and-answer session with reporters in a conference room overlooking a snow-covered Target Field, Pohlad dismissed the notion that the team has been trying to disprove a tightfisted reputation.

"We're not trying to show people," he said. "We're trying to do what we said we're going to do."'


So, we're sitting at around 80M. did the Twins only take in 160M last year? Only project to take in 160M this year? Or was last year and this year rebuilding years where they justify dropping payroll like a stone, and make even more money? They pocket a higher percentage of money in rebuilding years. It's right there.

We've had three years in TF, the worst record in the AL the last two, dropped payroll after the 2nd season by 18M, dropped payroll by 14M after the 3rd season. Three questions:

1. What happened to: 'I'm sure the initial years will be very good for the Twins'?
2. What happened to: 'the objective is always to have the best team on the field."?
3. What happened to: '"We're trying to do what we said we're going to do."?

Brock Beauchamp
01-11-2013, 09:50 AM
I hate to defend Terry Ryan because I'm as frustrated as you guys are, but I think he had every intention of signing better starting pitchers. The market just went too high in a hurry. The Correia move was one of desperation. He figured they needed to get someone with a pulse since the other guys were too expensive for them.

What's his excuse for not going after Marcum right now? It's hard to claim that the market has been bullish on Marcum.

peterb18
01-11-2013, 10:00 AM
Are we back to being a Small Market Team?

I must have missed the Memo.


By all accounts the Twins are a mid-market team. This small market stuff gets old. If the Pohlads wanted a competitive team on the field there would be one. They are the ones who have to step up to the plate.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 10:37 AM
I am sorry - Mid Market Team :)
The point is that the Twins are usually a decent team in the AL central and fans can't handle a drought without wanting the GM or Coaches head. I believe that management knows what it is doing and I believe that they want a winning product on the field as much as the fans. I also believe that they probably have better insight on free agents than we do and have made the right inquiires. There might be a reason Marcum is still on the market? You don't know!!! Have some faith and trust that things will get better. Your minor league system is already one of the top 6 in the MLB. Vast improvement. Give TR a break and ride the train for a while without pretending you know more than the conductor. The Twins are on the verge of some great teams with complete control of those players for some time. FAITH PEOPLE

Shane Wahl
01-11-2013, 10:44 AM
The market is not too high and the apologetics here are ridiculous. Nick is right to be frustrated with the (my words) lying done by Terry Ryan on behalf of the Pohlads.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 10:59 AM
I am sorry - Mid Market Team :)
The point is that the Twins are usually a decent team in the AL central and fans can't handle a drought without wanting the GM or Coaches head. I believe that management knows what it is doing and I believe that they want a winning product on the field as much as the fans. I also believe that they probably have better insight on free agents than we do and have made the right inquiires. There might be a reason Marcum is still on the market? You don't know!!! Have some faith and trust that things will get better. Your minor league system is already one of the top 6 in the MLB. Vast improvement. Give TR a break and ride the train for a while without pretending you know more than the conductor. The Twins are on the verge of some great teams with complete control of those players for some time. FAITH PEOPLE

There's a difference between faith and blind faith. We're talking about the huge difference between what we were told and what is being done. Additionally, your assumption that we're on the verge of some great teams with complete control of those players for some time is nothing but assumption. There are teams that have had high ranked systems for years that never did anything. That is because prospects are just that, prospects. All of our high ranked prospects would have to all work out for us to have a chance to have great teams, cause we won't be supplementing them with any top notch talent from outside. What are the odds that even 75% of our prospects turn out to even be starter material?

I'm glad you're an optimist, but I don't think you need to rail on people having discussion in the negative about how things are going as if you know for sure how things will be in a few years to come.

Jim Crikket
01-11-2013, 11:13 AM
I just don't get the "either - or" mentality of some folks. Sure, the minor league talent coming up is better than it has been for a long time and there's cause for optimism about many of the young players. But why the hell does that mean the Twins should be allowed to put a crappy product on the field in the mean time without being called on it? The Pohlad quotes that ThePuck posted SHOULD be followed up on by media with ownership... but they won't be. I don't think it's at all unreasonable for the fan base to question Twins ownership and management, given how things have unfolded. There is absolutely no excuse for the Twins to be once again putting a minor league level product on the field this season. If the only way that Terry Ryan knows how to put a competitive team on the field is to spend 4-5 years developing one up through the minor league organization, then perhaps he should be replaced by a GM who is capable of blending development with integration of quality free agents. He has not delivered on Pohlad's on-the-record promises.

Boom Boom
01-11-2013, 11:13 AM
It's ironic how Mackey put it in that article - the Twins won't overpromise and underdeliver in 2013. I know he's referring to the product on the field, but overpromising and underdelivering is exactly how TR has handled this offseason.

johnnydakota
01-11-2013, 11:20 AM
Marcier Izturis...we miss a chance to add this years gremlin(Carroll) and to improve the middle infield, for what? 4 million per year.Im guessing that when the season is over the Twins payroll will be closer to 70 million (73) then to 80 million, meaning that since 2011 payroll has shrunk 40 million,and once again we will have a very sub .500 season

Shane Wahl
01-11-2013, 11:24 AM
Does it really just come down to greedy billionaires wanting more of that sweet, sweet money?

Nick Nelson
01-11-2013, 11:29 AM
Sometimes I feel like a few people would be happier if the Twins would have given Correia 2 years and $50 million because then the payroll would be back at $100 million and "at least the Pohlad's won't pocket it."
Then you are missing the point. It's not about spending to spend. It's about spending to make the team better.


It became apparent a long time ago that no first or second tier healthy free agent would sign here.
Yep. Right around the time it became apparent that the Twins wouldn't make competitive offers for any of them.

nicksaviking
01-11-2013, 11:38 AM
If the Twins have one of only a few GM's who couldn't either reasonably predict the free agent market or adapt to it on the fly, they need to get a new one. Ryan's done a lot of good for this orgainzation, but I don't think he's an elite GM any longer.

It's probably not true, but I half fear that Ryan actually believes that Correia and Pelfrey are on par with the other mid-tier pitchers and he got a bargain signing them. That lack of judgment would actually be more concerning than his inactivity.

LewFordLives
01-11-2013, 12:01 PM
I don't understand this Shaun Marcum fixation people have. He missed two months last year with arm trouble and the Brewers have made no attempt to resign him. Doesn't this concern anybody? We also don't know what his asking price is. A large multi-year deal on a soft throwing righty with a history of arm trouble is not in Twins best interest. I know they need starting pitching, but I don't see the point in throwing away lots of money on stop-gap solution (see Kevin Correia) until younger guys arrive on the scene.

old nurse
01-11-2013, 12:19 PM
How do you know the offers were not competitive? We know for sure they were not accepted.

old nurse
01-11-2013, 12:23 PM
Do you by any chance work for Fox News?
I guess personal insults are not beneath military personnel.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 12:28 PM
I guess personal insults are not beneath military personnel.

You constantly do it to others, bu then complain when others do it to you. Wow, speaking of stuff said that never gets responded to, I've said that to you many times and it's always gone unanswered by you...

old nurse
01-11-2013, 12:42 PM
You constantly do it to others, bu then complain when others do it to you. Wow, speaking of stuff said that never gets responded to, I've said that to you many times and it's always gone unanswered by you...
I got a note from John. If you call questioning your claim on the Twins should have signed somebody after the 2010 season an insult, so be it. You never answered the question.

Rosterman
01-11-2013, 12:48 PM
You make an offer. It is accepted or rejected. You look at performance, personality, etc. etc. etc. You look at who is in the pipeline, who is due what when, et al. Not easy being a general manager. You do have top constantly look ahead at payroll in the future compared to now. You have to try and second-guess what a team is doing today compared to tomorrow (will Verlander, for example, resign with the Tigers who become a free agent, thus making the Tigers a weaker team). Will signing a pitcher for 2-3-4 years be worth it when you look at options that might be available in those coming years. On the flipside, you are hailed a hero if you get a bargain free agent (last year Doumit and Willingham). If a bargain free agent doesn't pan out (Zumaya -- why was the looksee guaranteed) and Marquis, you eat a little crow, but hopefully they don't pan out well for someone else. You trade Liriano for peanuts, but you got something in exchange. The White Sox didn't get anything. But then you sign a bunch of AAAA guys to back up your major league roster, but also slow development in the minors....arbitration issues solved? The ultimate: you have to put a team on the field that will be competitive, and then convince layers to not only stay, but come here and play. I will say that being a general manager isn't an easy job.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 12:52 PM
I got a note from John. If you call questioning your claim on the Twins should have signed somebody after the 2010 season an insult, so be it. You never answered the question.

No, I don't think your last post to me was an insult at all..did I say it was? My post just now was about you complaining about USAFChief insulting you. That's why I quoted your complaint to him instead of your post to me. My post to you was also about all the other times you've complained about people insulting you. You insult people all the time, you talk poorly to people all the time, but get all ticked when someone does it to you.

johnnydakota
01-11-2013, 01:03 PM
Would you be happy if we were the 2012 Angels? Spend happy with the same results as Twins = home for playoffs? We are a small market team that is looking to compete this year and go back to the Twins Way for the next 10 years. The Twins have and will only be = good year in and year out = when they utilize the Draft and Trades. The Angels were never truly "in it" despite the rookie excitement of Trout. My advice is TRUST T.R. and see where he takes us in the next 2-3 years? Hard to do for a spoiled group of fans who have been the best small market team in MLB over the last 20+ years (thru draft & trades). Allow the train to get back on track and get to MN on time or you will derail it again and for good!!

Twins way? to offer just enough to qualify as an offer but to little to get a signature?

johnnydakota
01-11-2013, 01:08 PM
Our payroll in 2007 was a 71.4M...regular inflation makes that just under 80M today. That's where our current payroll sits. And players salaries have gone up at a higher rate than standard inflation.

after the much publisised trade of Justin Morneau ,at mid season our payroll will be around 73 million for the season....

johnnydakota
01-11-2013, 01:13 PM
I'm not going to defend Mr. Ryan for not getting someone like Jackson at that price, but I'm good with not giving some of the contracts that have been given. And, I'm very hopeful for Liam Hendriks to take a step forward in 2013. I'm very excited to see how Kyle Gibson does as he breaks into the big leagues. Can Scott Diamond come close to duplicating his 2012 season? What do the Twins really have in Alex Meyer and Trevor May? How quickly can some of those college relievers get up here? Will Anthony Slama get a chance? There are reasons for optimism, and that's not even talking about the likes of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee and others. I certainly wouldn't give up on Brian Dozier at this point.

I don't think the Twins were legitimately going to compete in 2013 regardless. Detroit is too good. But I am very excited about the direction of the team. And frankly, young, talented players are much more valuable than just spending money to spend money.

Sometimes I feel like a few people would be happier if the Twins would have given Correia 2 years and $50 million because then the payroll would be back at $100 million and "at least the Pohlad's won't pocket it."

So you think having a veteran arm (sanchez, dempster) to show the young guys and to act as a mentor is a bad thing?
Would have signing Maricer Izturis hurt the twins? Or added to the middle infield?
Do you prefer to watch a battle between florimon and escobar, with the loser being a part timer, or would you want to have a pair of veterans to lift the bar for the kids to jump over?

Alex
01-11-2013, 01:23 PM
Following this discussion on twitter and here I think Nick has been dead on while it's frustrating to see Mackey and others apologize and make excuses.

You can both go after some free agents and rebuild for 2014. Heck, the right free agents will help you in 2014 even if you had to offer them 2 year deals. It's not like the pitching picture is going to have 5 rotation spots solved by then is it? 2-3, four if we're lucky but of Worley, Gibson, May, Meyer, Hendricks, not all of them are going to pan out.

The argument that people want to spend money just to spend money is as ridiculous as low payroll = success. You can develop from within and sign FA and *gasp* have a better team and, as teams proved last season you can spend or not and still have a good team.

Did anyone notice that the Nationals' payroll is over $100M this upcoming season, btw? Are people like Phil Mackey going to argue that they'll be worse because of it and shouldn't have spent it? Seriously?

Seth Stohs
01-11-2013, 01:33 PM
Then you are missing the point. It's not about spending to spend. It's about spending to make the team better.

No, I get and understand your point, but I think way too many people look at the salary number as if salary alone is what the team needs to compete. Spending just to spend makes no sense. And, younger players cost less by nature. That's just how it is.

My main comeback to this, and again I don't really even disagree, but I think that the Twins are going to finish 4th or 5th no matter who they would have added. I also think that they are smart enough to know that 2015 is at best when they will be contending in September again. They have to make decisions on some people and this is the year to do that. They need to know what they can count on from guys like Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Casey Fien, Cole De Vries, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Slama, and some others. The only way to find out is to play them. My assumption is that a few of them will make positive strides in 2013 and show that they can be relied upon. Some of them will flame out and they'll know that they need to find someone else. But there isn't a player on that list that doesn't deserve an opportunity. Add in that at some point, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia and others will continue to be coming up.

Again, I'll agree. I would rather they would have spent their money on Blanton than Correia and Lannan than Pelfrey. That would have made about a $2 million change. I would have been fine with them giving big money to Sanchez or Jackson, but they weren't going to come here. We don't know the story on Marcum, but he is hurt a lot and has lost velocity. I mean, it's not like there was a sure-thing on the market.

I'm disappointed in what it looks like 2013 will be, and I fully expect the young guys to have their ups and downs into 2014 and 2015 when they'll add more of those 2012 college flame-throwers, and guys like Rosario, Sano, Wimmers, who will also have struggles.

I just have a hard time getting incredibly upset about anything that I have absolutely no ability to alter.

ashburyjohn
01-11-2013, 01:37 PM
You can both go after some free agents and rebuild for 2014. Heck, the right free agents will help you in 2014 even if you had to offer them 2 year deals.

My impression (has anyone collected the status so far to verify?) is that the pitchers better than what the Twins have picked up have been demanding and getting 3 or more years. The guess would be that the guys not yet signed (Marcum, Saunders) still are holding out for 3.

I believe TR sees a huge difference in the risk factor when you go to 3 years (to say nothing of the 4+ required to land a true front-liner). If you accept risk in year 3, it is because of some expected benefit in year 1. Despite public pronouncements, it looks like 2013 is written off, leading to very little possible benefit to balance the risk, and so the front office is unwilling to take on any significant 2015 risk to help in 2013; and so far the 2-year contract offers aren't panning out.

I really thought going into the off-season that it should be possible to gear up for 2015 via trades like we have seen, plus sign some good stop-gaps to keep 2013-14 competitive. Either TR has been too cautious, or this model for sustaining competitiveness year-in/year-out is not supportable.

Jim Crikket
01-11-2013, 01:57 PM
It's probably not true, but I half fear that Ryan actually believes that Correia and Pelfrey are on par with the other mid-tier pitchers and he got a bargain signing them. That lack of judgment would actually be more concerning than his inactivity.

Yes, I think this is actually greater cause for fear than just the usual, "Twins are being cheap," thing and it goes deeper than Correia. I'm concerned that Ryan and the Twins are just not on par with the rest of the league when it comes to accurately identifying starting pitching talent, whether in schoolboys or veteran MLB pitchers.

Nick Nelson
01-11-2013, 01:58 PM
Spending just to spend makes no sense.
It's not about spending just to spend. The Twins had some of the worst pitching in baseball last year and spending money is the only way to improve that unit in the short-term without forfeiting assets in a trade.


I just have a hard time getting incredibly upset about anything that I have absolutely no ability to alter.
I wouldn't say I'm "incredibly upset," but as a fan of the team and a person who spends considerable money at the ballpark every year, I am frustrated. I think all fans should feel the same way. We're owed better than this, especially after the last two years.

I understand that you're excited to see some new prospects break in over the next couple years, and I am too. But I'd sure like to see them surrounded by some better veterans. Filling your roster with low-cost young players doesn't do a whole lot of good if you're not going to spend the extra money to fill needs that can't be addressed by your farm system.

nicksaviking
01-11-2013, 02:05 PM
My impression (has anyone collected the status so far to verify?) is that the pitchers better than what the Twins have picked up have been demanding and getting 3 or more years. The guess would be that the guys not yet signed (Marcum, Saunders) still are holding out for 3.

I believe TR sees a huge difference in the risk factor when you go to 3 years (to say nothing of the 4+ required to land a true front-liner). If you accept risk in year 3, it is because of some expected benefit in year 1. Despite public pronouncements, it looks like 2013 is written off, leading to very little possible benefit to balance the risk, and so the front office is unwilling to take on any significant 2015 risk to help in 2013; and so far the 2-year contract offers aren't panning out.

I really thought going into the off-season that it should be possible to gear up for 2015 via trades like we have seen, plus sign some good stop-gaps to keep 2013-14 competitive. Either TR has been too cautious, or this model for sustaining competitiveness year-in/year-out is not supportable.

Blanton, McCarthy and Myers all got two year deals and they are better pitchers than Correia. I also don't see how a three year deal is risky any longer considering the Twins have shown they can function with a $100M+ payroll but now will operate at $80M- over the next half decade at least.

The only risk would be taking a 25-man roster spot, though if Ryan isn't concerned with Correia taking a spot over the next two years (who is highly likely to be a bust and waste a roster spot) why would 3-4 years for a superior pitcher concern him? Injuries shouldn't be a concern, they can be put on the DL and that roster spot opens back up.

mike wants wins
01-11-2013, 02:07 PM
Seth, I am not angry, I am now indifferent to next year....that is worse for the Twins...as I bet more and more fans are feeling this way, and ticket sales will drop.

twinsnorth49
01-11-2013, 02:18 PM
My impression (has anyone collected the status so far to verify?) is that the pitchers better than what the Twins have picked up have been demanding and getting 3 or more years. The guess would be that the guys not yet signed (Marcum, Saunders) still are holding out for 3.

I believe TR sees a huge difference in the risk factor when you go to 3 years (to say nothing of the 4+ required to land a true front-liner). If you accept risk in year 3, it is because of some expected benefit in year 1. Despite public pronouncements, it looks like 2013 is written off, leading to very little possible benefit to balance the risk, and so the front office is unwilling to take on any significant 2015 risk to help in 2013; and so far the 2-year contract offers aren't panning out.



I quite agree with this viewpoint, I think the 3 year+ deals has been de regueur this off season for mid to front line starters and it's effected some initial decisions. With year 1 being optimistically at best a 4th place finish why go 3? Wait until next year (maybe even 2015) and consider 3 year deals at that point, closer to when the team is potentially going to start heading in the right direction. At least we then stand some chance of them being here in the midst of something with potential.

This isn't to excuse the FO for this off season, more could have been done to help the team be more competitive than it appears it's going to be, without having to go big before they wanted to.

gil4
01-11-2013, 02:20 PM
I guess personal insults are not beneath military personnel.

It could have been worse. He could have said MSNBC.

johnnydakota
01-11-2013, 02:22 PM
I got a note from John. If you call questioning your claim on the Twins should have signed somebody after the 2010 season an insult, so be it. You never answered the question.

my phone didnt ring....

old nurse
01-11-2013, 02:32 PM
It's not about spending just to spend. The Twins had some of the worst pitching in baseball last year and spending money is the only way to improve that unit in the short-term without forfeiting assets in a trade.
.

If they would have picked up the option on Baker, would you have complained they were spending money foolishly? If they traded a box of peanuts to pick up Haren's contract at the time would you have said that was overpriced? . Spending money is the only way to fix a short term problem, but to get someone here for purely monetary reasons you would have to blow them out of the water with an offer. Is it really wise to spend up to 10 million per year on a Blanton or McCarthy. Almost as much for a Feldman or Meyers. So you criticize the Twins for spending on Mauer. Yet you criticize the Twins for not signing pitchers when it would clearly be contracts far more than their value.

old nurse
01-11-2013, 02:37 PM
Haren may have been worth the risk if they could assess why his drop in velocity occurred last year. Far too many pitcher in year 2 are injured. He is too young to be declining due to age

Brock Beauchamp
01-11-2013, 02:46 PM
I am sorry - Mid Market Team :)
The point is that the Twins are usually a decent team in the AL central and fans can't handle a drought without wanting the GM or Coaches head. I believe that management knows what it is doing and I believe that they want a winning product on the field as much as the fans. I also believe that they probably have better insight on free agents than we do and have made the right inquiires. There might be a reason Marcum is still on the market? You don't know!!! Have some faith and trust that things will get better. Your minor league system is already one of the top 6 in the MLB. Vast improvement. Give TR a break and ride the train for a while without pretending you know more than the conductor. The Twins are on the verge of some great teams with complete control of those players for some time. FAITH PEOPLE

You'll be hard-pressed to find anyone around here complaining about how JR has handled the minor league system since his return.

On the other hand, there's another facet to a MLB franchise... The one that actually takes the field here in Minnesota. Nobody here is saying that the Twins need to start trading off minor leaguers to fill these holes. Nobody here is saying that the front office should sacrifice the future by trading for today (in fact, there are calls for the exact opposite). We're saying that the team should spend some of the money given to them when taxpayers financed Target Field.

It's not an unreasonable request. Hell, it should be an expectation. The people of Minnesota threw hundreds of millions of dollars at the Twins to make them competitive in the modern market. Asking the Twins to hold up their side of the bargain by spending a very reasonable amount of money to acquire free agents so we don't have to suffer another 65 win season has nothing to do with faith in the future and has everything to do with expecting the team to give back something in return for the enormous gift given them by the taxpayers of Minnesota.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 03:28 PM
Wouldn't it be wise to save $20+ million this year, so that you can over spend next year on quality free agents to go along with young rising talent in your system. That plend woud make for a more exciting and promising season in 2014. More than likely, you will have to over spend on Free Agents to get them to MN. Who was the last highly sort after free agent to come to MN? Great city, but not a free agent hot bed. Sign 1 to 3 top end guys next year with the money you save this year. Pray that 1 or 2 of the project signees (Pitchers) this year, pans out. Then we can ride that 6 Man Rotation all the way to wildcard :).
Diamond 12-9 / 3.54 era / 173 innings / 1.243 whip
Pelfrey 2.29 era before season ending injury / 1.424 whip
Gipson - let's see how spring training goes?
Worley 6-9 / 4.2 era / 133 innings (11-3 in 2011) / 1.511 whipHaren 12-13 / 4.33 era / 176 innings (16-10 with 3.17 in 2011) / 1.291 whip
Corriea 12-11 / 4.21 era / 171 innings (not awful & winning record) / 1.298 whip
If healthy - these are guys who can keep you in every game and eat up innings every outing.

Why are these guys worth more and worth the risk at their asking price?
Marcum was 7-4 / 3.71 era / 124 innings & was injured for 2nd time in 4 years / 1.266 whip
Blanton 10-13 / 4.71 era / 191 innings / 1.262 whip
McCarthy 8-6 / 3.24 era / 111 innings & was injured / 1.252 whip

mike wants wins
01-11-2013, 03:31 PM
lightfoot, if anyone thought that was the plan, we'd be happier than we are now, but there is zero evidence that is the plan. I do NOT for 1 second believe you need to "overspend" to get a FA to come here. I think you have to spend the market price, just like every other team.

Brock Beauchamp
01-11-2013, 03:35 PM
lightfoot, if anyone thought that was the plan, we'd be happier than we are now, but there is zero evidence that is the plan. I do NOT for 1 second believe you need to "overspend" to get a FA to come here. I think you have to spend the market price, just like every other team.

There is actually evidence... Evidence that the Twins will not spend more or less in following seasons based on the surplus/deficit of earlier seasons. They've said it themselves.

snepp
01-11-2013, 03:43 PM
How do you know the offers were not competitive? We know for sure they were not accepted.

How do you know there were competitive offers? Hell, how do you know there were any offers at all?


There hasn't been even the faintest whiff of a rumor surrounding any competitive offers to any quality free agents.

TheLeviathan
01-11-2013, 03:57 PM
It became apparent a long time ago that no first or second tier healthy free agent would sign here..

You complain about being insulted, but quite frankly, you're either trolling or being incredibly dense intentionally. You have littered this board with criticisms akin to "well how do you know they didn't offer to anyone?" and then in this thread and the Mackey thread you take remarks by Ryan and some kind of vague "analysis" and posit that the Twins really did make offers and were rejected. You are doing the same thing you have been peppering other posts with for days!

Every post is some pathetic reach for a defense that isn't even remotely rational. Again, Nick is 100% right. He's not bashing Terry Ryan as a GM. He's not calling the entire offseason a disaster. He's not calling for Ryan's head. He's not saying they should have spent 100M on Jackson. He's saying what I've been saying for days: Ryan made explicit promises of what he'd do. Regardless of what happened behind the scenes - he unequivocally failed to meet those promises. His feet deserved to be held to the fire on that. It's not that hard. I don't see how there is any room for any rational person to disagree with that.

Personally, I'd like an answer though. Because as a paying customer, I want to know why payroll was slashed and all this competitive in 2013 talk was scrapped. My gut tells me that Terry believed, quite naively and idiotically, that he could get pitchers to sign here for less than 4 years. And balked when they said their expectations. I don't know for sure and there could be many other explanations, but as fans that care - we damn sure can grill him for answers on it. Your inane defense attempts are just annoying and seem like an incessant need to troll.

Boom Boom
01-11-2013, 03:59 PM
The Twins are setting themselves up again for another bad season. If they lose 95-100 games again, they'll have all the same reasons next offseason to not spend money as they do now.

No free agents want to come here. You can't pick up 20 wins by throwing money at free agents. We're going to fix this the right way, from the ground up. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Next year's free agent class isn't any better, BTW.

Kwak
01-11-2013, 04:02 PM
Yes, I think this is actually greater cause for fear than just the usual, "Twins are being cheap," thing and it goes deeper than Correia. I'm concerned that Ryan and the Twins are just not on par with the rest of the league when it comes to accurately identifying starting pitching talent, whether in schoolboys or veteran MLB pitchers.
This is consistent with the past two seasons and likely 2013. The pitching was not only ineffective, but Twins-developed pitchers were typically below par (in MLB) with respect to: pickoffs, holding baserunners, and fielding their position. It seems as if the franchise treated pitchers as a lower priority than the other positions.

Alex
01-11-2013, 04:06 PM
.....They have to make decisions on some people and this is the year to do that. They need to know what they can count on from guys like Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Casey Fien, Cole De Vries, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Slama, and some others. .

I think very few people are complaining about the fact that they haven't added bats (even if an argument could be made for one up the middle) or even relief pitching. Fine. However to say that they didn't sign at least one decent starting pitcher so they can see what Liam Hendriks or Cole Devries can do is a bit of a stretch isn't it? Especially when like so many arguments here, you can refute it with "Keven Correia." It's what I don't get at all about the signing. If they're throwing in the towel, they might as well have saved $9M and let Devries/Deduno/Hendriks,et all pitch the next two years.

It's the same with any discussion here for those saying the Twins shouldn't spend more money because it won't help them. They're throwing $10M at Correia. Was there a worse overpayment for pitching this offseason?

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 04:13 PM
Based on injury reports (Free Agents) from last year and/or overall stuff - Who would? and should have the Twins signed? How much and what would you have paid for these guys? How much better are the guys you are going to name in comparison with who the Twins signed and or already have? Truly - besides Grienke - who? There was not one other #1 pitcher out there. What makes a very good #3? ERA? WHIP? INNINGS? - now how do they compare?

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 04:19 PM
However to say that they didn't sign at least one decent starting pitcher so they can see what Liam Hendriks or Cole Devries can do is a bit of a stretch isn't it? Especially when like so many arguments here, you can refute it with "Keven Correia."



I actually debated a guy today on another site and he thinks the Correia signing is a good signing. Trending up, he says. In fact, here's a direct quote that almost made me lose my lunch: 'Honestly, I don't think Correia was a bad signing. In fact, I think he was a decent one.'

Highabove
01-11-2013, 04:20 PM
There are thousands of Fans who are spending the Winter sending money to the Twins.
Why should we accept a half a** attempt at improving the product.
The Fans are not paying Small Market prices.

Alex
01-11-2013, 04:33 PM
Based on injury reports (Free Agents) from last year and/or overall stuff - Who would? and should have the Twins signed? How much and what would you have paid for these guys? How much better are the guys you are going to name in comparison with who the Twins signed and or already have? Truly - besides Grienke - who? There was not one other #1 pitcher out there. What makes a very good #3? ERA? WHIP? INNINGS? - now how do they compare?

Most people now use different stats than these to evaluate pitchers because they rely heavily on the defense behind the pitcher and are not as predictive as other numbers but I'd start with K/BB and K/9. Pitcher wins are, frankly, very outdated even though some still value them.

Look at the massive difference in these numbers (most are from last season):

Correia: 4.7 K/9, 1.93 K/BB (also, by the way, he pitches in the national league, failing to account for league is significant. This signing is likely colossal failure)
Pelfrey: 4.9 K/9. 1.62 K/BB last full season (oh, national league, too)
Worley: 7.2 K/9, 2.28 K/BB (again NL, but I think most of us like this acquisition -- but he also wasn't a FA signing)


Marcum 7.9 K/9, 2.6 K/BB (NL)
Blanton 7.8 K/9, 4.9 K/BB (NL)
McCarthy 5.9 K/9 3.0 K/BB

BTW, Scott Diamond :4.6 K/9, 2.27 K/BB a lot of people wonder if he'll be able to sustain the success he had last season with those kinds of numbers. It's probably possible, but unlikely and rare.

See the difference? Even McCarthy has significantly better ratios than either of the FA pitchers we picked up. Hard to tell with Harden but that's a nice high risk/high reward signing -- not a satisfying one.

There's a huge difference in the talent of the two groups. IE, the pitchers some of us wanted and the pitchers the Twins signed in FA.

Alex
01-11-2013, 04:38 PM
I actually debated a guy today on another site and he thinks the Correia signing is a good signing. Trending up, he says. In fact, here's a direct quote that almost made me lose my lunch: 'Honestly, I don't think Correia was a bad signing. In fact, I think he was a decent one.'

Yeah, Correia could easily end up losing a ton of games because he gets crushed by AL hitters, and the fact that he doesn't get to face pitchers means he could strike out less than four batters per game.

peterb18
01-11-2013, 05:16 PM
You'll be hard-pressed to find anyone around here complaining about how JR has handled the minor league system since his return.

On the other hand, there's another facet to a MLB franchise... The one that actually takes the field here in Minnesota. Nobody here is saying that the Twins need to start trading off minor leaguers to fill these holes. Nobody here is saying that the front office should sacrifice the future by trading for today (in fact, there are calls for the exact opposite). We're saying that the team should spend some of the money given to them when taxpayers financed Target Field.

It's not an unreasonable request. Hell, it should be an expectation. The people of Minnesota threw hundreds of millions of dollars at the Twins to make them competitive in the modern market. Asking the Twins to hold up their side of the bargain by spending a very reasonable amount of money to acquire free agents so we don't have to suffer another 65 win season has nothing to do with faith in the future and has everything to do with expecting the team to give back something in return for the enormous gift given them by the taxpayers of Minnesota.

I agree with everything that above fellow states, except the 65 win season. It probably will be worse!!

Kwak
01-11-2013, 05:52 PM
I must disagree with the comment about wins, they are important--especially on a bad team like the Twins. If anyone wins 10 games next year, that guy will have accomplished--and K's, BBs, or any of the other stats aren't going to be all that significant. The 2013 Twins will not be scoring a plethora of runs so that someone "gets lucky" because the hitters (hitters?! Yikes) bailed him out regularily.

Alex
01-11-2013, 06:13 PM
I must disagree with the comment about wins, they are important--especially on a bad team like the Twins. If anyone wins 10 games next year, that guy will have accomplished--and K's, BBs, or any of the other stats aren't going to be all that significant. The 2013 Twins will not be scoring a plethora of runs so that someone "gets lucky" because the hitters (hitters?! Yikes) bailed him out regularily.

You've sort of made the point, though, that pitchers have little control over the actual win stat. Worley could pitch well enough that the Twins win 10 or more behind him.

Part of the point, though, is that wins aren't all that predictive of next season, and predictive is what you want when going after FA. So, Marcum and Blanton should have better chances to put the Twins in situations to win games than Pelfrey or Correia.

Which brings about the ultimate concern that the Twins aren't even looking at a stat that is now considered a vary basic indicator of future success in their hunt for FA pitching. Or they don't value it enough to pay for it.

Chance
01-11-2013, 06:14 PM
1) the idea that top FA don't want to come here may be right but we won't know for certain unless they are offered contracts and it has been reported that a lot of the middle ground pitchers that the twins talked to never received an offer from the twins. You never know until you try. If Marcum asks for 2-3 years at 8 mil a year and the rest of the league is offer 1 year for 10 mil, don't you think he would consider the twins if we gave him what he was looking for?

2) if its tough to convince people to play in Minnesota you might have to loosen the check book more than other clubs. I think we all can agree that the twins can afford a $100 mil payroll. Instead of sitting on the extra 20 mil they could have "over paid" to get quality pitchers here.


3) Seth made the comment earlier that fans would be happy if the twins spent 2 years 50 mil on correria because the team was spending money but (I know he wasn't serious) the real issue is that instead of paying a 3 year 30 million dollar contract for an above average pitcher that could significantly help the team, they would rather pay 2 years 10-12 mil for a below average pitcher with no value or upside over the 5 AAAA pitchers we saw late last season and who will be lucky to still be on the roster by seasons end because they didn't want to "over pay."

4) It's ridiculous how they refuse the to spend money but the money they do spend is often on garbage which we would be better off without. In reality Ryan said that they would refuse to over pay for a player but they did just that for Correria and they probably didn't even have someone bidding against them.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 06:25 PM
Let's say I agree with you about Wins verse Performance (K/9). Are you saying you that if Corriea wins 12 to 15 games for Twins and has limited K's you will find him a failure? The Twins have been a pitch to contact team for decades and won a few WS that way. I want wins by any means neccessary. As you said - Diamond wasn't dynamic with K's either, but Twins fans enjoyed his outings.

In regards to NL vs AL - Marcum pitched in NL last year / Grienke pitched in NL last year / Jackson NL / - These are all guys that the people on this board craved in the off season. You give DH's too much credit as it pertains to pitchers having to face a real extra hitter. The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse. If you can pitch - you can pitch. I will take wins over high K rate and giving up HRs and BB's any day. ERA & WHIP is most important stat with pitching besides Wins. Can't lose if guys aren't on base. PERIOD

Alex
01-11-2013, 06:43 PM
Let's say I agree with you about Wins verse Performance (K/9). Are you saying you that if Corriea wins 12 to 15 games for Twins and has limited K's you will find him a failure? The Twins have been a pitch to contact team for decades and won a few WS that way. I want wins by any means neccessary. As you said - Diamond wasn't dynamic with K's either, but Twins fans enjoyed his outings. In regards to NL vs AL - Marcum pitched in NL last year / Grienke pitched in NL last year / Jackson NL / - These are all guys that the people on this board craved in the off season. You give DH's too much credit as it pertains to pitchers having to face a real extra hitter. The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse. If you can pitch - you can pitch. I will take wins over high K rate and giving up HRs and BB's any day. ERA & WHIP is most important stat with pitching besides Wins. Can't lose if guys aren't on base. PERIOD

Still missing the point. We're looking at it PREDICTIVELY. Which stats can be used to predict success (not guarantee it -- nothing does that)? You're picking those that are less predictable.

Not to mention that I pointed out which pitchers played in the NL. My point with Correia is that he's terrible in the NL....Oh, and how did the shift work out for Jason Marquis? I'm not saying it can't work, but it's not an advantage, whereas going the other way is.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 06:47 PM
Let's say I agree with you about Wins verse Performance (K/9). Are you saying you that if Corriea wins 12 to 15 games for Twins and has limited K's you will find him a failure? The Twins have been a pitch to contact team for decades and won a few WS that way. I want wins by any means neccessary. As you said - Diamond wasn't dynamic with K's either, but Twins fans enjoyed his outings.

In regards to NL vs AL - Marcum pitched in NL last year / Grienke pitched in NL last year / Jackson NL / - These are all guys that the people on this board craved in the off season. You give DH's too much credit as it pertains to pitchers having to face a real extra hitter. The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse. If you can pitch - you can pitch. I will take wins over high K rate and giving up HRs and BB's any day. ERA & WHIP is most important stat with pitching besides Wins. Can't lose if guys aren't on base. PERIOD

Marcum, Jackson and especially Grienke have already had success in the AL. As far as the comparison between AL and NL. Pitchers in the AL get to face players dedicated to hitting 140+ times a seasons. Pitchers in the NL get to face pitchers at least 100+. You think the difference is exaggerated?

mike wants wins
01-11-2013, 06:48 PM
Two pitchers are available in the offseason....they are the same age, they want the same money, they pitched the same innings, neither has ever been hurt. One won 19 games, gave up 5 runs a start, and his offense scored 7 runs a start. The other won 6 games, gave up 2 or 3 runs in every start, and his offense scored 3 runs per start. Which pitcher is the one you want to sign in FA?

Brock Beauchamp
01-11-2013, 07:05 PM
The NL to AL transition is overrated and vice verse.

No, it's not and there are mountains of statistics that show it.

old nurse
01-11-2013, 07:54 PM
Two pitchers are available in the offseason....they are the same age, they want the same money, they pitched the same innings, neither has ever been hurt. One won 19 games, gave up 5 runs a start, and his offense scored 7 runs a start. The other won 6 games, gave up 2 or 3 runs in every start, and his offense scored 3 runs per start. Which pitcher is the one you want to sign in FA?
How about realism in a scenario? Phil Hughes 18-8 with an ERA of 4.19 . Great year wins wise. average ERA. Was he a better pitcher than the guy who went 13-12 with a 2.27 ERA? I will take the latter guy, aka Felix Hernandez

snepp
01-11-2013, 07:59 PM
NL Pitchers: .330 OPS
AL DH's: .760 OPS


For a bit of perspective, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 08:08 PM
I guess I am wondering if WHIP is an overated stat. It tells me who gets hit too often and who puts runners on base to often as well. I understand the sabermetrics with the other stats. You would rather take a chance on Marcum despite injuries and pay him for 3 years even if he ends up staying injured - because he has high K Rate and is more likely to win games. He has been healthy 2 of last 4 years.

I'd rather stay with a cheaper unknown who at least has potential of eating up 6+ innings (Pefrey / Haren) if healthy. If these guys get to old form - you have 2 steals. Correia at least eats up innings and serves as a seviceable #5 or Healthy Bullpen Long Reliever.

Now I see how Jack Morris was omitted from HOF (lol). Sabes didn't hit the standard despite being a winner in big games.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 08:15 PM
You wrote:
NL Pitchers: .330 OPS
AL DH's: .760 OPS
For a bit of perspective, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.


Whats the OPS in interleague games is the stat you should be showing me.
What is the NL DH's OPS?
What is the AL Pitchers OPS? when hitting? :)
Does that stat show that only NL pitchers can't pitch?
as you said, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.

Top Gun
01-11-2013, 08:15 PM
Play fantasy baseball and you will learn alot about baseball. How to win, what players are good and who is not. Who to keep and who to trade.

Alex
01-11-2013, 08:20 PM
I guess I am wondering if WHIP is an overated stat. It tells me who gets hit too often and who puts runners on base to often as well. I understand the sabermetrics with the other stats. You would rather take a chance on Marcum despite injuries and pay him for 3 years even if he ends up staying injured - because he has high K Rate and is more likely to win games. He has been healthy 2 of last 4 years.

I'd rather stay with a cheaper unknown who at least has potential of eating up 6+ innings (Pefrey / Haren) if healthy. If these guys get to old form - you have 2 steals. Correia at least eats up innings and serves as a seviceable #5 or Healthy Bullpen Long Reliever.

Now I see how Jack Morris was omitted from HOF (lol). Sabes didn't hit the standard despite being a winner in big games.

Not to turn this into a Morris HOF debate, it does add to the discussion of pitcher evaluation. Here's a comparison of the run support Jack Morris got when compared both with Bert Blyleven and his own peers and how that affected his record: The Effects of Run Support | Mario Soto's Blog | FanNation.com (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/129715-the-effects-of-run-support). The TLDR version is that if they flipped run support, Blyleven would have been an easier and earlier inclusion and Morris wouldn't have a chance. I love Morris for Game 7, but I realize two things. One, he got the win even in that game because his fielder, Chuck Knoblauch faked Lonnie Smith out, saving a run (and what would have been the game), and two, he'd be by far the worst pitcher elected to the HOF. That said, I have nothing against people that vote for him because he performed well overall in the World Series games he pitched in.

But, back to your question about WHIP, one of the problems with it is it relies again on defense. It's not terrible, but a good defense is going to prevent hits as well on balls that should be hits and a terrible defense is going to turn should be outs into hits.

As for innings eaters, I like what Aaron Gleeman says about durabilty. You're only durable until you're not. One one of his and Bonnes's offseason podcasts last year, they debated the value of Pavano. Bonnes called Pavano an innings eater. Of course, he ate very few innings last season. Certainly some pitchers are more fragile but any pitcher is just an injury away from no longer eating innings.

Alex
01-11-2013, 08:32 PM
You wrote:
NL Pitchers: .330 OPS
AL DH's: .760 OPS
For a bit of perspective, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.


Whats the OPS in interleague games is the stat you should be showing me.
What is the NL DH's OPS?
What is the AL Pitchers OPS? when hitting? :)
Does that stat show that only NL pitchers can't pitch?
as you said, that would be like replacing Drew Butera......with Prince Fielder.'

I can't tell if this is a joke.... It's not the NL pitchers can't pitch. It's that NL pitchers don't face the same competition and their NL numbers will likely drop when they move to the AL.

snepp
01-11-2013, 08:33 PM
Would Correia be, even if completely healthy, an "innings eater" anyway? You still have to perform well enough to pitch deep into games.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 08:34 PM
'

I can't tell if this is a joke.... It's not the NL pitchers can't pitch. It's that NL pitchers don't face the same competition and their NL numbers will likely drop when they move to the AL.

I don't think it's a joke...I think it's a grasp at straws to defend a point of view that really has no legs to stand on :-)

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 08:35 PM
Not to turn this into a Morris HOF debate, it does add to the discussion of pitcher evaluation. Here's a comparison of the run support Jack Morris got when compared both with Bert Blyleven and his own peers and how that affected his record: The Effects of Run Support | Mario Soto's Blog | FanNation.com (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/129715-the-effects-of-run-support). The TLDR version is that if they flipped run support, Blyleven would have been an easier and earlier inclusion and Morris wouldn't have a chance. I love Morris for Game 7, but I realize two things. One, he got the win even in that game because his fielder, Chuck Knoblauch faked Lonnie Smith out, saving a run (and what would have been the game), and two, he'd be by far the worst pitcher elected to the HOF. That said, I have nothing against people that vote for him because he performed well overall in the World Series games he pitched in.

But, back to your question about WHIP, one of the problems with it is it relies again on defense. It's not terrible, but a good defense is going to prevent hits as well on balls that should be hits and a terrible defense is going to turn should be outs into hits.

As for innings eaters, I like what Aaron Gleeman says about durabilty. You're only durable until you're not. One one of his and Bonnes's offseason podcasts last year, they debated the value of Pavano. Bonnes called Pavano an innings eater. Of course, he ate very few innings last season. Certainly some pitchers are more fragile but any pitcher is just an injury away from no longer eating innings.


So True about injury away :)

To your point about defense - If our defense sucks we have bigger problems than just pitching, because the offense is only so good. :)

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 08:35 PM
Would Correia be, even if completely healthy, an "innings eater" anyway? You still have to perform well enough to pitch deep into games.


What if they tried something unconventional? Let all his games be complete games so we save the bullpen? They've tossed this season away anyway, why not try it :-)

snepp
01-11-2013, 08:39 PM
What if they tried something unconventional? Let all his games be complete games so we save the bullpen? They've tossed this season away anyway, why not try it :-)

Not possible, arms fall off after 100 pitches, it's science.

snepp
01-11-2013, 08:42 PM
To your point about defense - If our defense sucks we have bigger problems than just pitching, because the offense is only so good. :)

Sad, but unfortunately true. It's unlikely the offense will be any better than last year, with a good chance of being worse.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 08:57 PM
I conceed. I might be reaching with my philosophy, but I will continue to believe in management and it's unmotivating attempt to make the Twins better. I'm a beleiver / optomist. Some of these FA pitchers will pan out and prove most of these fans wrong. I see a (2011) Pirates start to the season and a late fade. Our hitters will hit and our young guys (Hicks / Plouffe / Parmelee) will flourish. Arms will have to find a way to hold on for the long run (unlikely). I see Twins fans at least staying engaged til July. These negative vibes are sure to show its face in the stands. We need True Believers (Faith)!! and yes Blind Faith!!!

TheLeviathan
01-11-2013, 09:01 PM
I conceed. I might be reaching with my philosophy, but I will continue to believe in management and it's unmotivating attempt to make the Twins better. I'm a beleiver / optomist. Some of these FA pitchers will pan out and prove most of these fans wrong. I see a (2011) Pirates start to the season and a late fade. Our hitters will hit and our young guys (Hicks / Plouffe / Parmelee) will flourish. Arms will have to find a way to hold on for the long run (unlikely). I see Twins fans at least staying engaged til July. These negative vibes are sure to show its face in the stands. We need True Believers (Faith)!! and yes Blind Faith!!!

You know what blind belief achieves? Nothing. Valid criticism born out of caring about a team can at least spur a team to make changes to the way it operates

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 09:21 PM
I'm just looking for 1 or 2 board bloggers who believe in management. Wow
These negative vibes from most, can't be too helpful for a cities morale. All I hear is "here we go again fans"
You just made the playoffs 2 or 3 years ago. Wow
Is this why the Vikes and Timberwolves struggle with consistency?
"Conditioning for failure (Fans) is a contagious trait."

TheLeviathan
01-11-2013, 09:27 PM
I'm just looking for 1 or 2 board bloggers who believe in management. Wow
These negative vibes from most, can't be too helpful for a cities morale. All I hear is "here we go again fans"
You just made the playoffs 2 or 3 years ago. Wow
Is this why the Vikes and Timberwolves struggle with consistency?
"Conditioning for failure (Fans) is a contagious trait."

..........

snepp
01-11-2013, 09:33 PM
I'd have to say the Twins are the ones that have done the conditioning, I'm just following their lead.

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 09:34 PM
And why is your criticism valid :) - because you're a fan? If Twins sucked for decades (Wolves), I would understand and if this GM (TR) was your head guy for years - I would understand and if he made no moves to make your team an eventual winner (just didn't show he cared), I would understand. Patience is a virtue. You could be the Royals or Pirates organization. Trying hard with same results and hanging up those 9th place medals (Meet the Flockers). You have at least won in recent years and know the formula.

TheLeviathan
01-11-2013, 09:45 PM
And why is your criticism valid :) - because you're a fan? If Twins sucked for decades (Wolves), I would understand and if this GM (TR) was your head guy for years - I would understand and if he made no moves to make your team an eventual winner (just didn't show he cared), I would understand. Patience is a virtue. You could be the Royals or Pirates organization. Trying hard with same results and hanging up those 9th place medals (Meet the Flockers). You have at least won in recent years and know the formula.

So rather than criticize mistakes as they are obviously happening, we should wait several years until they build on top of each other again and again before we voice our displeasure? Exactly when does one reach this threshold for criticism in this rather insane view of yours?

old nurse
01-11-2013, 10:01 PM
And why is your criticism valid :) - because you're a fan? If Twins sucked for decades (Wolves), I would understand and if this GM (TR) was your head guy for years - I would understand and if he made no moves to make your team an eventual winner (just didn't show he cared), I would understand. Patience is a virtue. You could be the Royals or Pirates organization. Trying hard with same results and hanging up those 9th place medals (Meet the Flockers). You have at least won in recent years and know the formula.
The Twins had a heck of a good run. As Janet Jackson once said "what have you done lately" If Pelfey comes back as a WAR of 3 like 08 and 10, if Gibson pitches as well as he did in the minors when health (fip around 3, fans would be ecstatic with a ml around 3.5) and if Worley pitches like he did in 2011. Diamond needs to stay about the same and Correia does his tiny bit above replacement level. Mighty big ifs, but 3 of the first 4 you might find happier fans here. Please note, If, not when. Optimism says it could happen, the last two years leads fans to believe not with the Twins luck. If Blackburn rediscovers his sinker. Nah, thats getting into fantasyland.

old nurse
01-11-2013, 10:06 PM
Considering what Miami received for Sanchez, and to a lesser extent Buerhle and Johnson, could the Twins pull of a trade for Nolasco?

USAFChief
01-11-2013, 10:19 PM
I have to start paying closer attention to the Twins offseason moves. I totally missed them picking up Dan Haren.

johnnydakota
01-11-2013, 10:24 PM
Considering what Miami received for Sanchez, and to a lesser extent Buerhle and Johnson, could the Twins pull of a trade for Nolasco?

Id have to look up his stats , but isnt he carry a 4.50 ERA? i think he is around 8Ks/9 but does he have a winning record?isnt he just a more expensive Correia

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 10:31 PM
Id have to look up his stats , but isnt he carry a 4.50 ERA? i think he is around 8Ks/9 but does he have a winning record?isnt he just a more expensive Correia

He seems to be one of the players that got a rep he didn't deserve after one fine season.

benchwarmerjim
01-11-2013, 10:35 PM
the Twins never sign big time free agents (1991 excluded)
so until they show that they will actually go out and sign people year after year, I never believe what comes out of the Front Office.

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 10:38 PM
the Twins never sign big time free agents (1991 excluded)
so until they show that they will actually go out and sign people year after year, I never believe what comes out of the Front Office.

But there's always been a legitimate reason :-)

lightfoot789
01-11-2013, 10:55 PM
No one on this board can say they would have been Championship optimistic if they were the White Sox Fans or A's Fans or Oriole's Fans during the preseason in 2012. and see what happened? Positive things occured with all thier moves. Hell the A's traded thier best pitcher and still won!

Would you honestly have been happy if you were a Marlins Fan with all those expensive free agents last year? and see what happened?

Sometimes we have to trust management and thier plan. 2 years people - 2 years :)

ThePuck
01-11-2013, 11:05 PM
No one on this board can say they would have been Championship optimistic if they were the White Sox Fans or A's Fans or Oriole's Fans during the preseason in 2012. and see what happened? Positive things occured with all thier moves. Hell the A's traded thier best pitcher and still won!

Would you honestly have been happy if you were a Marlins Fan with all those expensive free agents last year? and see what happened?

Sometimes we have to trust management and thier plan. 2 years people - 2 years :)

By two years do you mean you think we'll be legitimate contenders in two years?

benchwarmerjim
01-11-2013, 11:26 PM
But there's always been a legitimate reason :-)

damn you, Metrodome roof!!!!

Brock Beauchamp
01-12-2013, 12:31 AM
No one on this board can say they would have been Championship optimistic if they were the White Sox Fans or A's Fans or Oriole's Fans during the preseason in 2012. and see what happened? Positive things occured with all thier moves. Hell the A's traded thier best pitcher and still won!

Would you honestly have been happy if you were a Marlins Fan with all those expensive free agents last year? and see what happened?

Sometimes we have to trust management and thier plan. 2 years people - 2 years :)

You would have had a legendary career as a musician on the Titanic.

old nurse
01-12-2013, 12:44 AM
He seems to be one of the players that got a rep he didn't deserve after one fine season.
If the team could identify a soon to be free agent pitcher that is just below what that team would make a qualifying offer for and trade for them before the season started. The team might trade cheaply rather than risk losing them for nothing. The Twins make a qualifying offer and either have a decent pitcher for another year or a draft pick that could land a better prospect than the sum of what they gave up. Nolasco came to mind because Miami might be that kind of team willing to make a trade.

Top Gun
01-12-2013, 01:08 AM
Nolasco is just not a go pitcher and it would take a top 5 prospect.

RodneyKline
01-12-2013, 02:21 AM
All I expect for buying them a new stadium is for them to put a team on the field that looks like it can win the division every year. So to answer the question someone threw out there, yes I would be happy if I was a fan of the Angels in 2012. Angel management did everything they could (actually way more than they needed to) to field a winner. TR is not even trying to field a winner because he is way too cheap. I do not blame the Pohlads because unless they are saying things behind the scenes that they are not saying in public, I believe that they will pay what it takes to field a winner. They are just not being asked to do it since Billy Smith asked them to go to $115m in 2010. They did it without hesitation.

Top Gun
01-12-2013, 07:16 AM
That's true! It is Ryan to blame. He can talk but can he walk?

twinsnorth49
01-12-2013, 11:58 AM
All I expect for buying them a new stadium is for them to put a team on the field that looks like it can win the division every year. So to answer the question someone threw out there, yes I would be happy if I was a fan of the Angels in 2012. Angel management did everything they could (actually way more than they needed to) to field a winner. TR is not even trying to field a winner because he is way too cheap. I do not blame the Pohlads because unless they are saying things behind the scenes that they are not saying in public, I believe that they will pay what it takes to field a winner. They are just not being asked to do it since Billy Smith asked them to go to $115m in 2010. They did it without hesitation.

Just to nitpick, payroll was 97 million in 2010 and went to 112 million in 2011 and we all saw how that turned out.

Before the free spenders all over-react I'm just pointing out a fact not defending the Twins lack of spending this off-season. Although as long as we're pointing fingers, to not implicate the Pohlads as part of payroll going down is pretty naive.

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 12:07 PM
This is consistent with the past two seasons and likely 2013. The pitching was not only ineffective, but Twins-developed pitchers were typically below par (in MLB) with respect to: pickoffs, holding baserunners, and fielding their position. It seems as if the franchise treated pitchers as a lower priority than the other positions.

So your saying they spent to much time teaching the young batters to bunt? but i think your correct in thinking that there is a lack of teaching and developing in the minors, i just think it is not just pitching that is lacking

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 12:14 PM
No one on this board can say they would have been Championship optimistic if they were the White Sox Fans or A's Fans or Oriole's Fans during the preseason in 2012. and see what happened? Positive things occured with all thier moves. Hell the A's traded thier best pitcher and still won!

Would you honestly have been happy if you were a Marlins Fan with all those expensive free agents last year? and see what happened?

Sometimes we have to trust management and thier plan. 2 years people - 2 years :)
Gordon , is that you? step away from the pipe =)

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 12:17 PM
All I expect for buying them a new stadium is for them to put a team on the field that looks like it can win the division every year. So to answer the question someone threw out there, yes I would be happy if I was a fan of the Angels in 2012. Angel management did everything they could (actually way more than they needed to) to field a winner. TR is not even trying to field a winner because he is way too cheap. I do not blame the Pohlads because unless they are saying things behind the scenes that they are not saying in public, I believe that they will pay what it takes to field a winner. They are just not being asked to do it since Billy Smith asked them to go to $115m in 2010. They did it without hesitation.

And now Bill is inspecting toilets in South American stadiums.....

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 12:19 PM
Amen , if Pohlads wanted a winner they would have a winner....instead they want profit , so they have profit.
Just like Hal in Spankee land the kids only care about money

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 12:20 PM
If the team could identify a soon to be free agent pitcher that is just below what that team would make a qualifying offer for and trade for them before the season started. The team might trade cheaply rather than risk losing them for nothing. The Twins make a qualifying offer and either have a decent pitcher for another year or a draft pick that could land a better prospect than the sum of what they gave up. Nolasco came to mind because Miami might be that kind of team willing to make a trade.
That makes a lot of sense. I wonder how many teams use that strategy consistently,or at all. Only issue is qualifying offers are at was , what, about 13M? Someone like Nolasco would probably jump on that, and probably wouldn't be worth it.

Still, though...for the right kind of player that'd be a good strategy.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 12:23 PM
Just to nitpick, payroll was 97 million in 2010 and went to 112 million in 2011 and we all saw how that turned out.

Before the free spenders all over-react I'm just pointing out a fact not defending the Twins lack of spending this off-season. Although as long as we're pointing fingers, to not implicate the Pohlads as part of payroll going down is pretty naive.

In an interview with Jim Pohlad himself in Feb'10, it was mentioned that although normal policy is to have around 50% of revenue for payroll, during rebuilding years, it goes down quite a bit. So why is it naive to think that the Pohlads policy dictates drop payroll during rebuilding years, as we are in now?

twinsnorth49
01-12-2013, 12:27 PM
In an interview with Jim Pohlad himself in Feb'10, it was mentioned that although normal policy is to have around 50% of revenue for payroll, during rebuilding years, it goes down quite a bit. So why is it naive to think that the Pohlads policy dictates drop payroll during rebuilding years, as we are in now?

Read the post I was responding to. The poster indicated the Pohlads are willing to spend on a winner but it's Ryan's fault for not spending the money, that's just more than a little naive IMO.

Fanatic Jack
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Nick,

Great argument. I spent $3,200 to renew my season tickets based on the fan forum and what was being said by GM Terry Ryan. I always believed he was a straight shooter but was obviously wrong. Twins will probably be worse than last year. Fans were fooled again.

old nurse
01-12-2013, 12:32 PM
Justin Upton turns down a trade to the Mariners. The city of Seattle is a great place. The team has been bad for longer than the Twins. Upton has been with Arizona through some very good years and some very bad years. There is no statement as to why he blocked the trade.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 12:43 PM
Read the post I was responding to. The poster indicated the Pohlads are willing to spend on a winner but it's Ryan's fault for not spending the money, that's just more than a little naive IMO.

I think it's a combination. IMO, Ryan is being stubborn. He has an idea how much players are worth and he won't budge. He's under-estimated the market and won't adjust based on principle.

Then again, it's reported he hasn't made that many offers at all. Player's aren't gonna sign non-existent offers. :-)

edavis0308
01-12-2013, 12:48 PM
Justin Upton turns down a trade to the Mariners. The city of Seattle is a great place. The team has been bad for longer than the Twins. Upton has been with Arizona through some very good years and some very bad years. There is no statement as to why he blocked the trade.

It's probably because of that high rate of depression up there.

Alex
01-12-2013, 01:47 PM
112 million in 2011 and we all saw how that turned out.

I realize this wasn't your central point, but I do think this comment needs to be put in context because I see it's ilk often.

In 2011, the Twins top two salaries weren't on the field most of the season and they didn't go out and spend that money (112M) on a decent FA pitcher, either. Span was injured often as well. This means that much of the season, their lineup was manned by minimum wage players. That payroll certainly isn't representative of what the Twins would have actually paid for and wanted to field that season.

Then, in 2012 they cut the payroll, and that certainly didn't work out better. You could argue that the opposite is true. With a healthy lineup they weren't able to produce a significant number of wins above the previous year. Sure, Baker was hurt and Pavano declined, but they certainly had room to spend. Instead they went into the season with no depth in their starting pitching and relied on a coin flip. We all know how that turned out.

---

Discussing this has reminded me of another argument entirely. Remember when there were people saying the Mauer's salary was holding this team back or that the right thing for him to do would be to renegotiate his pay so the Twins could be competitive? I think the last two off-seasons have shown us the ridiculousness of that argument, not to mention next season they'll have a lot more to spend then even this year but again, probably won't. I'm starting to think the right thing for Mauer to do is request a trade.

Alex
01-12-2013, 01:48 PM
I think it's a combination. IMO, Ryan is being stubborn. He has an idea how much players are worth and he won't budge. He's under-estimated the market and won't adjust based on principle.

Then again, it's reported he hasn't made that many offers at all. Player's aren't gonna sign non-existent offers. :-)

I agree. I think that, especially in terms of pitching signings and evaluation of FA, they are well behind the curve on value and the shape of the market.

Alex
01-12-2013, 01:53 PM
So your saying they spent to much time teaching the young batters to bunt? but i think your correct in thinking that there is a lack of teaching and developing in the minors, i just think it is not just pitching that is lacking

I can give the Twins "some" leeway on this. After all the years of success and picking at the end of the draft, that talent pool was bound to dry up, even if I do think part of it is being behind in terms of talent evaluation. At least, have some promising young hitters in the system now that we can look forward to seeing in a couple of years.

twinsnorth49
01-12-2013, 02:01 PM
I think it's a combination. IMO, Ryan is being stubborn. He has an idea how much players are worth and he won't budge. He's under-estimated the market and won't adjust based on principle.

Then again, it's reported he hasn't made that many offers at all. Player's aren't gonna sign non-existent offers. :-)

So a combination of what? Ryan and the Pohlad's? Or the combination of Ryan being stubborn and underestimating the market? Where are you going with this? All I stated was that I don't think it's entirely Ryan's unwillingness to spend and that the Pohlad's likely are playing a role. If you actually read it, I'm mainly agreeing with you.

You've made your case pretty strongly on Ryan, this just seems gratuitous.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 02:11 PM
So a combination of what? Ryan and the Pohlad's? Or the combination of Ryan being stubborn and underestimating the market? Where are you going with this? All I stated was that I don't think it's entirely Ryan's unwillingness to spend and that the Pohlad's likely are playing a role. If you actually read it, I'm mainly agreeing with you.

You've made your case pretty strongly on Ryan, this just seems gratuitous.

We do agree, all I was saying is I don't think the blame goes to either Pohlad OR Ryan, but both of them. In an interview with Pohlad, it was said that during rebuilding years the percentage of revenue spent on salary goes down. It's policy that's been in place for quite some time. Ryan does the spending, and he's dropped payroll 32M since he's come back as GM. Not sure how much of the drop was due to policy and how much was Ryan not doing what's necessary due to stubbornness

old nurse
01-12-2013, 02:43 PM
So a combination of what? Ryan and the Pohlad's? Or the combination of Ryan being stubborn and underestimating the market? Where are you going with this? All I stated was that I don't think it's entirely Ryan's unwillingness to spend and that the Pohlad's likely are playing a role. If you actually read it, I'm mainly agreeing with you.

You've made your case pretty strongly on Ryan, this just seems gratuitous.
Considering the signings that were made I would guess that Ryan can commit to a certain dollar amount without Pohlad approval. Above needs the boss's approval. When you listen to the end of the interview referenced in Nick's article, when they asked him about signing free agent his response was "we tried, sometimes you can't give money away". Those that are so disappointed in the outcome of the off season thus far ignore that comment. With the dearth of information about negotiations it means something. He didn't say the free agents wanted too much money. He essentially said they don't want the Twin's money.

It could be said that Ryan is frugal with the money and does not want to give out any more than he should. A learned habit from the Metrodome budgets. Most mid market teams are not giving out very many mistake contracts. Meche, Figgins and Wells comes to mind. Correia has to be given a chance to fail here before the negatory people can add him to the list.

TheLeviathan
01-12-2013, 03:20 PM
when they asked him about signing free agent his response was "we tried, sometimes you can't give money away". Those that are so disappointed in the outcome of the off season thus far ignore that comment. With the dearth of information about negotiations it means something. He didn't say the free agents wanted too much money. He essentially said they don't want the Twin's money.

I love how you nitpick this stuff. Are you being paid by the Twins to troll this crap?

We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers. That tells me they heard what was wanted (likely, 3 years or more) and balked on even offering a contract. These guys that spurned us were probably the likes of Blanton, if even that. The point is, you have LESS information to make your assumption than the claims you have been railing against on the board!

Here is the far more likely scenario: This team wanted to sign players to deals that were more than 1 year but less than 3, thus hamstringing themselves to a limited number of free agents, thus landing them in the boat that is Kevin Correia. If this wasn't the case - we'd be signing Marcum right now. Shaun Marcum is the massive trump card that debunks every inane post you insist on.

Top Gun
01-12-2013, 04:33 PM
According to Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500, the Twins are interested in bringing aboard free agent right-hander Armando Galarraga on a minor league deal.

Wolfson says the Twins have reached out to Galarraga and are waiting to hear back. The 30-year-old starter went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA over five starts for the Astros in 2012, but he could compete for a spot at the back end of the Twins' season-opening rotation if he is signed.

drjim
01-12-2013, 05:09 PM
I'm late to this thread, but I have a couple of observations.

1. I thought the Twins handled the pitching about right. Before the season I thought they would sign an established guy, trade for a starter, sign a guy coming off of injury, and take a flyer on a fourth guy, while planning on having Diamond and Hendriks ready to start the season along with Gibson, depending on how they would space his innings.

I thought they executed parts 2-4 fine. Worley is a fine trade addition, I preferred Baker but can live with Pelfrey, and thought Harden was a fine flyer (and wouldn't be surprised if there is another minor league signing or two). Like everyone I'm not a fan of the Correia signing, but I didn't want the Twins, in their current situation, going more than 2 years or giving up a draft pick. So, in reality the competition was McCarthy, Blanton, Lannan, Myers, and possibly Saunders or Marcum. I say possibly because we still don't know what those contracts will end up being (I have read they are holding out for 3 years, which I absolutely would not do). McCarthy is clearly better, but I'm indifferent about Correia vs. Blanton/Lannan/Myers. So overall, I can live with how it played out based on contracts and availability.

2. Twins are not small market, but they are not large market. Realistically they fall into the same category as teams like Atlanta, St. Louis, Seattle and should be judged to that standard. Twins are not going to get the huge TV deal other teams have signed, just don't have the subscriptions to compete.

I don't understand the whining about payroll. Ideally, as the Twins are rebuilding and moving towards younger players which will bring down the overall salary. I have already said I wouldn't want them to sign a pitcher for more than two years and it would be counterproductive to sign a position player that would block young player or prospect. There were no impact 3B/SS/2B and it wouldn't make sense to go multiple years for an OF. Who is there to sign? Should they spend money for the sake of spending money?

I appreciate the frustration but what was the realistic alternative scenario? The issue right now is not an unwillingness to spend money or an inability to evaluate major league free agents. The problem has been bad trades, drafts that haven't worked out, and young players that never developed. The is minimal young talent on the roster and no core to build around. That has started to be remedied and hopefully they will move towards that during this year on both the major and minor league levels. There is no quick fixes - I think best case scenario is they have progress in the rebuild this year with some young players starting to establish themselves and/or have consolidation years in the minors, 2014 as the transition year where wins start to jump, and start competing in 2015.

TheLeviathan
01-12-2013, 05:17 PM
I don't understand the whining about payroll. Ideally, as the Twins are rebuilding and moving towards younger players which will bring down the overall salary. I have already said I wouldn't want them to sign a pitcher for more than two years and it would be counterproductive to sign a position player that would block young player or prospect. There were no impact 3B/SS/2B and it wouldn't make sense to go multiple years for an OF. Who is there to sign? Should they spend money for the sake of spending money?.

There is no reason they can't sink some of that excess cost into more riskier investments that might pay off long term. There is no longer the option to spend at will in the international or amatuer ranks, so basically this money is being pocketed. As paying customers - we damn sure can bitch about money being pocketed after some explicit promises about changing the team's outlook.

Shaun Marcum at 3 years cripples NOTHING. There is no reason not to do this. There is no backload of AAA pitchers he is getting in the way of. Hell, all he does is guarantee Blackburn doesn't make the rotation our of ST. I fail to see the downside.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 06:36 PM
Again, competing in 2015 with mostly players who are in the minors right now is an unrealistic projection. 2015 is about the time we'll see most of our better prospects finally all up, but that's not going to right away make us competitive. '87 team took 5 years for them to all gel and get rolling to be competitive.

People, mostly the defenders, keep saying 2015 as an excuse to not spend. That's not gonna happen.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 06:40 PM
According to Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500, the Twins are interested in bringing aboard free agent right-hander Armando Galarraga on a minor league deal.

Wolfson says the Twins have reached out to Galarraga and are waiting to hear back. The 30-year-old starter went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA over five starts for the Astros in 2012, but he could compete for a spot at the back end of the Twins' season-opening rotation if he is signed.

How many guys can we have on the back end of the rotation? Every time we sign someone they say say, not so bad, he's a back end guy. We have nothing but hopeful #3s to go along with 4s and 5s. Be nice if we could get a front end guy

lightfoot789
01-12-2013, 08:21 PM
Is it not possible, that Marcum is still a Free Agent for a reason? It is not like the Twins are the only team to not follow your plan. Maybe all 30+ teams see him as a risk and don't want to give him his asking price? Maybe the Twins are extremely wise not to give 3 years to a pitcher who has had serious arm problems for 2 of the last 4 seasons? What do your sources say about Marcum still being available and on the market (no sarcacism)?

Alex
01-12-2013, 08:45 PM
Is it not possible, that Marcum is still a Free Agent for a reason? It is not like the Twins are the only team to not follow your plan. Maybe all 30+ teams see him as a risk and don't want to give him his asking price? Maybe the Twins are extremely wise not to give 3 years to a pitcher who has had serious arm problems for 2 of the last 4 seasons? What do your sources say about Marcum still being available and on the market (no sarcacism)?

No other team is in need of starting pitching like the Twins. Seriously, none. They were the worst staff in the majors by a long shot. So, no other team has the need nor should have the same plan. And , yet again, in order to refute the idea that the Twins are extremely wise, I give you exhibit A, Kevin Correia.

Specifically with Marcum, fine. However it's not like he was/is the only option this offseason, thou he is one of the few left now because the Twins didn't compete with other offers.

old nurse
01-12-2013, 09:02 PM
I love how you nitpick this stuff. Are you being paid by the Twins to troll this crap?

We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers. That tells me they heard what was wanted (likely, 3 years or more) and balked on even offering a contract. These guys that spurned us were probably the likes of Blanton, if even that. The point is, you have LESS information to make your assumption than the claims you have been railing against on the board!

Here is the far more likely scenario: This team wanted to sign players to deals that were more than 1 year but less than 3, thus hamstringing themselves to a limited number of free agents, thus landing them in the boat that is Kevin Correia. If this wasn't the case - we'd be signing Marcum right now. Shaun Marcum is the massive trump card that debunks every inane post you insist on.
OK I will nitpick more. You still have not addressed what the quote says.
You say " We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers." You have no proof for the statement you make following that. You suppose it to be so, so it must be that way. (Am I learning how to argue like you guys yet? It is what you tell me in rebuttal to anything I say). In stating that the Twinslikely balked at a three year contracts, how long is or was the contract for Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker, Blackburn, Nishi, Willingham and Doumit's (considering the extension made it a total 3 year contract) In 2008, what did they give Cuddyer? Sounds like a place that gives out contracts longer than 2 years. The nock on Marcum is the reported elbow pain. How much dis the Twins spend on injured pitchers last year? Do you think Pohlad wants to spend more for a pitcher who might have elbow problems with a loss of velocity?

TheLeviathan
01-12-2013, 09:11 PM
You have no proof for the statement you make following that. You suppose it to be so, so it must be that way.

Hey! You get it! I made that argument to show you EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING! And you're criticizing others out of one side of your mouth while you do the same damn thing out of the other side!


The nock on Marcum is the reported elbow pain. How much dis the Twins spend on injured pitchers last year?

If the Twins were sitting at 95M and signing Marcum would stress their budget, I wouldn't recommend it. But they cut their payroll by 25-30% and are in grave need of arms. I don't care if his arm is half-attached - he's been a worthy #2 pitcher in a rotation at times, definitely a #3 - he's worth the gamble. With this much budget room (and more coming on the near horizon) there is ZERO reason not to gamble. Best case scenario he stays healthy and adds a very good arm to our rotation. Worst case scenario it eats half the money the Pohalds pocket anyway.

snepp
01-12-2013, 09:12 PM
I'm still waiting on those reports of the Twins making quality offers to quality free agents, despite all the reports to the contrary.

TheLeviathan
01-12-2013, 09:15 PM
Is it not possible, that Marcum is still a Free Agent for a reason? It is not like the Twins are the only team to not follow your plan. Maybe all 30+ teams see him as a risk and don't want to give him his asking price? Maybe the Twins are extremely wise not to give 3 years to a pitcher who has had serious arm problems for 2 of the last 4 seasons? What do your sources say about Marcum still being available and on the market (no sarcacism)?

Yes, Marcum comes with serious risks. However - A) He's not blocking any AAA starters. Gibson, Worley, and Hendricks still have a spot. Essentially, he replaces someone we shouldn't give a rip about anyway. B) He's been a very good starter. C) The payroll is going to continue to drop next year, so it's not stressing our ability to retain or obtain anyone

If this team isn't willing to take some risks like this one at a position of desperate need when it has payroll flexibility, that is a very worrisome future trend. And not one that any fan should abide while they pay above average ticket prices.

snepp
01-12-2013, 09:15 PM
Worst case scenario it eats half the money the Pohalds pocket anyway.

Exactly this.

Unless the team's plan moving forward is to permanently lower the payroll to infuriating levels (the bull**** this offseason better be temporary), his signing would in no way impede payroll flexibility.

old nurse
01-12-2013, 09:28 PM
I'm still waiting on those reports of the Twins making quality offers to quality free agents, despite all the reports to the contrary.

I am waiting for proof that any free agent wanted to listen to the Twins make them an offer.

lightfoot789
01-12-2013, 10:40 PM
I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher. (Maybe that allows ownership to go 5 years $100 Million to someone instead of 4 years $80 Million / just an over the top example). Saving money this year allows you to over spend next year and entice FA's to MN!! I would even let Gipson, Henriks, and Mays get some outings throughout the year just for experience. And yes neither of us know whether ownership will over spend next year, but I have to believe that most owners want to win.

Final question to this topic - Who was the last TOP FA to sign with Twins? and don't say Willingham? He was a key FA, but a not Top FA.

TheLeviathan
01-12-2013, 10:56 PM
I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher.

I'm not sure if snepp ever found the quotes, but the Pohlads run the Twins like any other business - they operate on a yearly basis. Thus, they don't carryover budget room to the next year or the year after. So, again - this is money that WILL be pocketed. Not put towards the team in any meaningful way.

Seems to me you have been conditioned to accept such things.

Top Gun
01-12-2013, 11:14 PM
Who are the top free agents you want to over spend for next year? You must know, and I sure would like to know. Can you name the top 3 SP for me?

Kwak
01-12-2013, 11:18 PM
I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher. (Maybe that allows ownership to go 5 years $100 Million to someone instead of 4 years $80 Million / just an over the top example). Saving money this year allows you to over spend next year and entice FA's to MN!! I would even let Gipson, Henriks, and Mays get some outings throughout the year just for experience. And yes neither of us know whether ownership will over spend next year, but I have to believe that most owners want to win.

Final question to this topic - Who was the last TOP FA to sign with Twins? and don't say Willingham? He was a key FA, but a not Top FA.
In '91 it was Morris, in '92 a pitcher from Pittsburgh named Smiley (he took Morris's place when Morris jumped to Toronto). After '92 the Twins' record headed South. I am not aware of any others that signed or were even offered a contract to play for the Twins. The philosophy of "lots of arm s" to fix the rotation is diametrically opposed to aquiring one star to accomplish the same goal. It appears that the "quantity" over "quality" preference has been in force for some time.

snepp
01-12-2013, 11:24 PM
I never did find the specific articles I was looking concerning the budget, and any google searches that include budget and revenue inevitably lead to a mountain of irrelevant results. These were the same articles that included front office comments about 52% of revenue going to payroll, etc.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 11:30 PM
I never did find the specific articles I was looking concerning the budget, and any google searches that include budget and revenue inevitably lead to a mountain of irrelevant results. These were the same articles that included front office comments about 52% of revenue going to payroll, etc.

are you talking about articles like the kind I posted on page two of this thread?

drjim
01-12-2013, 11:34 PM
There is no reason they can't sink some of that excess cost into more riskier investments that might pay off long term. There is no longer the option to spend at will in the international or amatuer ranks, so basically this money is being pocketed. As paying customers - we damn sure can bitch about money being pocketed after some explicit promises about changing the team's outlook.

Shaun Marcum at 3 years cripples NOTHING. There is no reason not to do this. There is no backload of AAA pitchers he is getting in the way of. Hell, all he does is guarantee Blackburn doesn't make the rotation our of ST. I fail to see the downside.

OK, if you go 3/30 on Marcum and he gets hurt, you don't think $10 mil+ of dead money in '15 could cause a problem? This is of course speculation as we have no idea what kind of contract he is looking for or has been offered or even what his medicals actually look like. I wouldn't have a problem with signing him to this type of deal, but I also don't have a problem with not signing him and seeing what you actually have with Diamond/Worley/Hendriks/Gibson and eventually May/Meyer with the other fillers currently on the roster.

I personally don't care what the payroll is I just want the team to be as a good as possible with an appropriate balance of current success and future considerations. I never had big plans for this year so I would be hesitant to take a risk that might allow the team to scratch out a few extra wins this season at the cost of bigger downside in the future. I don't think a guy like Marcum is so great that they need to lock him up this year. There will be a guy or two like him next offseason they can go after if the team is in a better position to contend.

snepp
01-12-2013, 11:37 PM
I am waiting for proof that any free agent wanted to listen to the Twins make them an offer.

I have reports supporting the beliefs that they either offered crap, or offered nothing at all. Other than your opinion, what do you have to support it? If it's out there I want to see it.

I'd love to be able to defend the front office by saying that free agents just hate us and refuse to play in Minnesota, despite TR offering to "make it rain," but the information available right now clearly suggests otherwise.

snepp
01-12-2013, 11:41 PM
are you talking about articles like the kind I posted on page two of this thread?

Similar, but the ones I'm referring to go back to around the time that the stadium debate and the extend-or-trade Santana discussions were at their peak.

ThePuck
01-12-2013, 11:42 PM
OK, if you go 3/30 on Marcum and he gets hurt, you don't think $10 mil+ of dead money in '15 could cause a problem? This is of course speculation as we have no idea what kind of contract he is looking for or has been offered or even what his medicals actually look like. I wouldn't have a problem with signing him to this type of deal, but I also don't have a problem with not signing him and seeing what you actually have with Diamond/Worley/Hendriks/Gibson and eventually May/Meyer with the other fillers currently on the roster.

I personally don't care what the payroll is I just want the team to be as a good as possible with an appropriate balance of current success and future considerations. I never had big plans for this year so I would be hesitant to take a risk that might allow the team to scratch out a few extra wins this season at the cost of bigger downside in the future. I don't think a guy like Marcum is so great that they need to lock him up this year. There will be a guy or two like him next offseason they can go after if the team is in a better position to contend.

Payroll is gonna be at 80M this year...we'll drop at least another 20M when Morneau and Willingham are gone....and we're not bringing in any high price talent. We could have pre-arbitration eligible or 1st year arbitration players at every starting spot besides Mauer. We're talking Sano, Rosario, Parmelee, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, maybe Benson. Along with Gibson, May, Meyer, Worley, Diamond.

Why would 10M stifle us in 2015?

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 11:44 PM
I can give the Twins "some" leeway on this. After all the years of success and picking at the end of the draft, that talent pool was bound to dry up, even if I do think part of it is being behind in terms of talent evaluation. At least, have some promising young hitters in the system now that we can look forward to seeing in a couple of years.

And how many can lay down a bunt?Advance a runner , hit the cutoff man, or how many middle infielders do we have that have under 30+ errors?how many pitchers refine or learn a new pitch since being signed? i find the entire system lacking and needing replacing .
Ihave thought for some time now that we need to fire everyone from David ST.Pete right down to the janator in the instructional leaque , because for some time now kids arnt ready when they get to the show , even after sitting year after year in the minors...

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 11:47 PM
We do agree, all I was saying is I don't think the blame goes to either Pohlad OR Ryan, but both of them. In an interview with Pohlad, it was said that during rebuilding years the percentage of revenue spent on salary goes down. It's policy that's been in place for quite some time. Ryan does the spending, and he's dropped payroll 32M since he's come back as GM. Not sure how much of the drop was due to policy and how much was Ryan not doing what's necessary due to stubbornness

And i believe Terry was brought back specifically to lower payroll. I think Pohlad gives the fans lipp service while telling Ryan to slash payroll

snepp
01-12-2013, 11:48 PM
Hammer, Doumit, and Correia currently come off the books after 2014, where would a 2015 budget crunch come from? They aren't likely going to spend any big free agent money, so any significant budget increases would have to come internally. Other than Worley going through arbitration, where are the big ticket obligations going to come from?

Unless the Twins plan to actually open the free agent purse strings in the next couple of offseasons, giving a free agent a 3-year deal now just isn't much of a risk.

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 11:52 PM
I'm late to this thread, but I have a couple of observations.

1. I thought the Twins handled the pitching about right. Before the season I thought they would sign an established guy, trade for a starter, sign a guy coming off of injury, and take a flyer on a fourth guy, while planning on having Diamond and Hendriks ready to start the season along with Gibson, depending on how they would space his innings.

I thought they executed parts 2-4 fine. Worley is a fine trade addition, I preferred Baker but can live with Pelfrey, and thought Harden was a fine flyer (and wouldn't be surprised if there is another minor league signing or two). Like everyone I'm not a fan of the Correia signing, but I didn't want the Twins, in their current situation, going more than 2 years or giving up a draft pick. So, in reality the competition was McCarthy, Blanton, Lannan, Myers, and possibly Saunders or Marcum. I say possibly because we still don't know what those contracts will end up being (I have read they are holding out for 3 years, which I absolutely would not do). McCarthy is clearly better, but I'm indifferent about Correia vs. Blanton/Lannan/Myers. So overall, I can live with how it played out based on contracts and availability.

2. Twins are not small market, but they are not large market. Realistically they fall into the same category as teams like Atlanta, St. Louis, Seattle and should be judged to that standard. Twins are not going to get the huge TV deal other teams have signed, just don't have the subscriptions to compete.

I don't understand the whining about payroll. Ideally, as the Twins are rebuilding and moving towards younger players which will bring down the overall salary. I have already said I wouldn't want them to sign a pitcher for more than two years and it would be counterproductive to sign a position player that would block young player or prospect. There were no impact 3B/SS/2B and it wouldn't make sense to go multiple years for an OF. Who is there to sign? Should they spend money for the sake of spending money?

I appreciate the frustration but what was the realistic alternative scenario? The issue right now is not an unwillingness to spend money or an inability to evaluate major league free agents. The problem has been bad trades, drafts that haven't worked out, and young players that never developed. The is minimal young talent on the roster and no core to build around. That has started to be remedied and hopefully they will move towards that during this year on both the major and minor league levels. There is no quick fixes - I think best case scenario is they have progress in the rebuild this year with some young players starting to establish themselves and/or have consolidation years in the minors, 2014 as the transition year where wins start to jump, and start competing in 2015.

Marcier Izturis? This years gremlin....

johnnydakota
01-12-2013, 11:59 PM
OK I will nitpick more. You still have not addressed what the quote says.
You say " We have information from a variety of league sources that the Twins met with players, but rarely made offers." You have no proof for the statement you make following that. You suppose it to be so, so it must be that way. (Am I learning how to argue like you guys yet? It is what you tell me in rebuttal to anything I say). In stating that the Twinslikely balked at a three year contracts, how long is or was the contract for Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker, Blackburn, Nishi, Willingham and Doumit's (considering the extension made it a total 3 year contract) In 2008, what did they give Cuddyer? Sounds like a place that gives out contracts longer than 2 years. The nock on Marcum is the reported elbow pain. How much dis the Twins spend on injured pitchers last year? Do you think Pohlad wants to spend more for a pitcher who might have elbow problems with a loss of velocity?

They have this site called MLB rumors...several times in the last couple of months different writters have posted just those words .
As for Baker Ryan wanted 1 year plus an option , probally at a team friendly deal , so scott signed with the cubs,
as for Cuddyer last year he offered him a 30% pay cut to return , probally the same for Kubal , declined Nathan , then im guessing tried to low ball him plus an option , much the same as baker . As for Crapps he acepted the 30% pay cut and returned ....

johnnydakota
01-13-2013, 12:08 AM
Payroll is gonna be at 80M this year...we'll drop at least another 20M when Morneau and Willingham are gone....and we're not bringing in any high price talent. We could have pre-arbitration eligible or 1st year arbitration players at every starting spot besides Mauer. We're talking Sano, Rosario, Parmelee, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, maybe Benson. Along with Gibson, May, Meyer, Worley, Diamond.

Why would 10M stifle us in 2015?

Blackburn and the gremlin ( carroll) as well so thats over 29 million if willingham is traded

ThePuck
01-13-2013, 12:17 AM
Blackburn and the gremlin ( carroll) as well so thats over 29 million if willingham is traded

Even if Willingham isn't traded, we only have him for two more years. He'll be gone in 2015 anyway

johnnydakota
01-13-2013, 12:20 AM
Even if Willingham isn't traded, we only have him for two more years. He'll be gone in 2015 anyway

It is indeed a sad future for the twins and fans

Alex
01-13-2013, 12:33 AM
I would still rather see Diamond, Worley, Pelfrey, Haren, and yes Correia this season and save $20 - $30 million to over spendnext year on a Top Free Agent Pitcher. (Maybe that allows ownership to go 5 years $100 Million to someone instead of 4 years $80 Million / just an over the top example). Saving money this year allows you to over spend next year and entice FA's to MN!! I would even let Gipson, Henriks, and Mays get some outings throughout the year just for experience. And yes neither of us know whether ownership will over spend next year, but I have to believe that most owners want to win.

Final question to this topic - Who was the last TOP FA to sign with Twins? and don't say Willingham? He was a key FA, but a not Top FA.

As others mentioned, the Twins don't do this. Last year, their excuse for slashing payroll was that they had a lot of picks in the draft. This year, no such excuse is available. In what could likely be the richest pitching FA market in years past and for years to come.

The Twins philosophy was never to spend for top in FA, but that was supposed to change with Target Field. None of us are asking Pujols type contracts and none of us were foolish enough to think Greinke would be on the table. We're talking mid-rotation guys.

Seriously, the Twins gave Pavano 3 years for 24.5M THREE years ago. We can't risk 3/30 or heck even 3/45 for likely a better pitcher, especially considering available funds over the next 3 years?

People have made mention of Twins payroll space of their own, but few people have reminded the apologists here that they are getting additional tens of millions next year (like every team)

So yes, they can afford it. Of course, that's a double edged sword and one the Twins will likely use as an excuse since the price of FA has gone up and probably will next year ("These guys are asking ridiculous amounts!"). Anybody aware of this change should have been able to guess it would affect this year's contracts.

johnnydakota
01-13-2013, 12:39 AM
As others mentioned, the Twins don't do this. Last year, their excuse for slashing payroll was that they had a lot of picks in the draft. This year, no such excuse is available. In what could likely be the richest pitching FA market in years past and for years to come.

The Twins philosophy was never to spend for top in FA, but that was supposed to change with Target Field. None of us are asking Pujols type contracts and none of us were foolish enough to think Greinke would be on the table. We're talking mid-rotation guys.

Seriously, the Twins gave Pavano 3 years for 24.5M THREE years ago. We can't risk 3/30 or heck even 3/45 for likely a better pitcher, especially considering available funds over the next 3 years? People have made mention of Twins payroll space of their own, but few people have reminded the apologists here that they are getting additional tens of millions next year (like every team) So yes, they can afford it. Of course, that's a double edged sword and one the Twins will likely use as an excuse since the price of FA has gone up and probably will next year ("These guys are asking ridiculous amounts!". Anybody aware of this change should have been able to guess it would affect this year's contracts.

dont forget the extra tv revenue , carroll and blackburn so we will have eliminated 50 million in salarys in 2 years?while adding to revenue.
nice job .....St Pete will need to hire a couple of extra brinks trucks to haul Pohlads profits

Alex
01-13-2013, 12:50 AM
dont forget the extra tv revenue , carroll and blackburn so we will have eliminated 50 million in salarys in 2 years?while adding to revenue.
nice job .....St Pete will need to hire a couple of extra brinks trucks to haul Pohlads profits

Yeah, that's what I was referring to with the extra tens of millions that every team will be getting. Those making excuses and worrying about money in the future, don't realize the Twins have it in abundance in future years.

Their comments are also very tied to Marcum, but there were a lot more available pitchers the Twins could have gone after. He's all that's left and it's convenient that they have the excuse of his arm (and they're correct it could be a bigger question mark). That's what we're left with, though.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 08:15 AM
OK, if you go 3/30 on Marcum and he gets hurt, you don't think $10 mil+ of dead money in '15 could cause a problem?

No, it won't. As snepp and Puck already pointed out very nicely. Plus....you said Diamond/Worley/Gibson/Hendricks....sounds like their is still a fifth spot there to me! (Plus, injuries happen and two of those four just recently had significant injuries)


There will be a guy or two like him next offseason they can go after if the team is in a better position to contend.

The difference is that there will be more buyers and we already have seen how the Twins wilt when the negotiations get tough. Right now they have a chance while other teams have relaxed to swoop in and take a gamble. I never had high hopes for next year either, but Marcum is young enough to be helpful for more than just next year. He, unlike the guys they signed this year, represents more than a stopgap.

old nurse
01-13-2013, 08:24 AM
Hey! You get it! I made that argument to show you EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING! And you're criticizing others out of one side of your mouth while you do the same damn thing out of the other side!



.
I have deductive reasoning on my side. There is a set of circumstances and observations that lead to my opinion.

Correct on Marcum but there is that thing called Pohlad's money. Considering how Carl Pohlad made his money I do not see how Jim Pohlad would approve it.

old nurse
01-13-2013, 08:52 AM
I have reports supporting the beliefs that they either offered crap, or offered nothing at all. Other than your opinion, what do you have to support it? If it's out there I want to see it.

I'd love to be able to defend the front office by saying that free agents just hate us and refuse to play in Minnesota, despite TR offering to "make it rain," but the information available right now clearly suggests otherwise.

Sources cited like Thyrloss has? People on the far periphery may not know the whole process of what goes on.
In regards to starting pitching free agents. Haren, Jackson, Sanchez, Dempster, McCarthy, Marcum, Blanton and Guthrie are the pitchers available to the Twins who have decent sustained pitching. #3 Starter or better material Pretty darn good pitcher material. 2 or greater WAR. If Ryan contacted the players (agents) and a third said no way, that only leaves a few for you to recruit.
Meyers vs Saunders vs Correia, they all fill a need, but they are not the difference maker. You only have to pick one or two to go after. There is no need to go after 10 of them.

I did not include Grienke, Kuroda, or Lohshe as I don't think any of them would sign here to begin with for various reasons and give credit to the FO for knowing that also. Once they did not pick up Baker's option I would have predicted him to be gone.

lightfoot789
01-13-2013, 09:31 AM
Besides Greinke - I don't think there was a pitcher on the FA market who was a true difference maker. None with whom I'd bet my home - they would remain effective frontliners. Dempster was so so with Rangers - Sanchez is hot and cold - Marcum is often injured as are so many of the other pitchers on market. That's why I can't see why fans are outraged over a weak FA class that is over priced in any other year. These guys are not much better than what you have coming up in your system. Give them a chance, like the Brewers are doing with their staff. They lost Marcum and Greinke and are replacing them with in house prospects. Thier Fans are excited about the future. The Brewers have always been tight with their money as well, but are able to somehow be in the mix. Twins are about to be the Brewers of the AL very soon. The future looks promising to me, but I feel like I can see behind the trees.

Bill Rigney
01-13-2013, 09:57 AM
Brock - yes, it should be an expectation as a fan, but certainly not as a taxpayer. Do you really think TR or the Pohlads look at Target Field and feel a responsibility to sign free agents as a "thank you" to taxpayers? Multi-million dollar businesses don't get that way by being sentimental. We wanted MLB in the Twin Cities, regardless of how competitive the team would be. Had the Twins left town, we would've clamored for the Padres or the Royals or an expansion team to come here, regardless of how good the team was likely to be or how much they would spend on payroll. It's a business that we wanted here. The more they win, the more money they make. They owe us nothing.

twinsnorth49
01-13-2013, 10:31 AM
At this stage is the only point in signing Marcum to go from a completely half ass team to a kind of half ass team for this year and possibly next? If signing a decent starter to 3 years is necessary. why bother with this year when they will only have a chance to make any real difference is in he last year of the deal, when the team will only be on the cusp of being competitive anyway.

Yes, TR said he was going to sign a significant arm but at this point, why bother, it's not likely to make a damn difference this year.

twinsnorth49
01-13-2013, 10:39 AM
the Pohlads run the Twins like any other business - they operate on a yearly basis. Thus, they don't carryover budget room to the next year or the year after.

I'm glad someone finally had the sense to point this small detail out. Thank you.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 10:43 AM
I have deductive reasoning on my side. There is a set of circumstances and observations that lead to my opinion.

No, you have inductive reasoning in yours. Same as everyone else.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 10:48 AM
Yes, TR said he was going to sign a significant arm but at this point, why bother, it's not likely to make a damn difference this year.

True, and I don't disagree. However, this thread is more about holding Ryan to promises about 2013. Marcum at least possibly could be a nice bridge when 2015 comes. And there is nothing to say, if he does pan out, that you can't extend him. With rotation spots open (i.e.: not blocking anyone significant) the Twins should be gambling with players that could be long-term help. Marcum is young enough to be that and has been very, very good.

What he represents for 2013 is a promise kept by Ryan to ticket-holders. But, for those of us that always thought 2015 was a more realistic vision for this team, he also represents a nice piece of the puzzle.

twinsnorth49
01-13-2013, 11:05 AM
True, and I don't disagree. However, this thread is more about holding Ryan to promises about 2013. Marcum at least possibly could be a nice bridge when 2015 comes. And there is nothing to say, if he does pan out, that you can't extend him. With rotation spots open (i.e.: not blocking anyone significant) the Twins should be gambling with players that could be long-term help. Marcum is young enough to be that and has been very, very good.

What he represents for 2013 is a promise kept by Ryan to ticket-holders. But, for thos e of us that always thought 2015 was a more realistic vision for this team, he also represents a nice piece of the puzzle.

Yes, holding TR accountable to his words is fair, I have no problem with that. Sure, extending Marcum is possible but going into 2016 he would be 35, how long would he want? If it's another 3, being that it would likely be his last deal, I'd rather wait to go that route after this year in order to get someone more likely to contribute through the initial contract. If the 2015 team does end up being one moving towards contending in 2017-18 then add a guy like Marcum then as well.

My opinion does not account for the likelihood of that happening however.

Alex
01-13-2013, 11:30 AM
Besides Greinke - I don't think there was a pitcher on the FA market who was a true difference maker. None with whom I'd bet my home - they would remain effective frontliners. Dempster was so so with Rangers - Sanchez is hot and cold - Marcum is often injured as are so many of the other pitchers on market. That's why I can't see why fans are outraged over a weak FA class that is over priced in any other year. These guys are not much better than what you have coming up in your system. Give them a chance, like the Brewers are doing with their staff. They lost Marcum and Greinke and are replacing them with in house prospects. Thier Fans are excited about the future. The Brewers have always been tight with their money as well, but are able to somehow be in the mix. Twins are about to be the Brewers of the AL very soon. The future looks promising to me, but I feel like I can see behind the trees.

if you think this is a weak FA market,especially in terms of the kinds of money the Twins would spend, I don't kno what to tell you. Other people have done a much better job explaining than I have. The Twins GMhandbook lists them all, Bonnes and Gleeman discussed it at length on a podcast using specific comparisons and Gleeman (and probably others) wrote blogs about it. Yes, there was one ace available, but there were a ton of pitchers avaliable that could have fit into a reasonable price range based on the current market and be sustainable frontof the rotation guys.

Your concern about question marks on those pitchers is very weak, considering most of the, are proven ML pitchers, of which the ones we're waiting for are not and the others that we've added have the EXACT same issues. Pitchers just aren't durable these days, period.

If you think this season players are overpriced, wait until you see what happens when hundreds of millions flood the market next season.

As a side not to an older discussion, the Angels explained one reason they wouldn't be interested in Lohse was because they don't think his numbers will hold on a return to the AL.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 11:36 AM
If it's another 3, being that it would likely be his last deal, I'd rather wait to go that route after this year in order to get someone more likely to contribute through the initial contract. If the 2015 team does end up being one moving towards contending in 2017-18 then add a guy like Marcum then as well.

True, he won't be young at that point. He also represents some nice possibilities for low-risk, high-reward trade value. Again, I think all we're talking about his money that is going to be pocketed. It's frustrating that money we're contributing to the team isn't being put back into it at the rate generally expected.

lightfoot789
01-13-2013, 12:04 PM
I was listening to the MLB station in my car and heard the announcers say that Loshe actually had better numbers than Grienke.
I'd rather have him as a short term fix. He's older yes - but for all the saber blog GM's - He is actually a better fix than Marcum.
I'm a new Twins fan - Would he come back and why did we let him go?
BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB





868





114





1.196





8.5





0.8





2.3





8.5





3.70




ZACH GRIENKE

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB





864





134





1.090





8.2





0.8





1.6





6.1





3.76




KYLE LOSHE

edavis0308
01-13-2013, 12:40 PM
I was listening to the MLB station in my car and heard the announcers say that Loshe actually had better numbers than Grienke.
I'd rather have him as a short term fix. He's older yes - but for all the saber blog GM's - He is actually a better fix than Marcum.
I'm a new Twins fan - Would he come back and why did we let him go?
BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB





868





114





1.196





8.5





0.8





2.3





8.5





3.70




ZACH GRIENKE

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB





864





134





1.090





8.2





0.8





1.6





6.1





3.76




KYLE LOSHE

I'm mobile so its hard to look it up, let alone post, but I suspect you would be better served using a previous three year average.

lightfoot789
01-13-2013, 01:03 PM
Great Plan B.
Grienke 2010 / 2011
BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB




919


100


1.245


9.0


0.7


2.3


7.4


3.29




715


103


1.200


8.4


1.0


2.4


10.5


4.47



Loshe 2010 / 2011
BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB




431


59


1.783


12.6


0.9


3.4


5.3


1.54




775


109


1.168


8.5


0.8


2.0


5.3


2.64

Alex
01-13-2013, 01:06 PM
I was listening to the MLB station in my car and heard the announcers say that Loshe actually had better numbers than Grienke.
I'd rather have him as a short term fix. He's older yes - but for all the saber blog GM's - He is actually a better fix than Marcum.
I'm a new Twins fan - Would he come back and why did we let him go?
BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB




868




114




1.196




8.5




0.8




2.3




8.5




3.70




ZACH GRIENKE

BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB




864




134




1.090




8.2




0.8




1.6




6.1




3.76




KYLE LOSHE

Lohse has had some good years, no doubt.

Of course, you realize Lohse has NO ONE make him an offer. He's said as much.

There's a particular reason he's not a better fix, especially for th Twins even if we thought the Twins would be interested in him (bad blood there, though) and it's the reason no one is interested in him. He costs a draft pick to sign since he received a qualifying offer.

Not to mention, if Marcum is out of the Twins price range, Lohse certainly is even if he didn't come with the additional tax of a draft pick.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 01:07 PM
So the moral of those two stories is adding more context provides more insight about a player's talents. Which is, you know, important when signing them to lucrative contracts.

Willihammer
01-13-2013, 01:13 PM
Lohse is an interesting pitcher coming off two very solid years. The first thing that's helped him has been walking fewer guys. But his strikeout rate, batted ball-type rates, plate discipline, and even his pitch selection, movement and velocity have all stayed very close to career averages. The only thing that's changed has been the league and the park, and his BABIP, which has sunk to the .265 range the last two years. So his ERA has outperformed his FIP by about a full run each of the past two years. But, for his career, his FIP matches his ERA exactly. Add it all up, and I think he's a great candidate for regression.

lightfoot789
01-13-2013, 01:15 PM
Definitely not then. There is no one out there now worth giving up draft picks for. My Bad :)

I am actually content (not thrilled) with what we have, and I'm excited to see what the prospects (Gipson / Henriks / Mays) have to offer (Lumps and bumps and all). I would like to add that it would be awesome if the Twins actually had the CR Kernels play a game or more at Target Field and reward fans with at least that pleasure and glimpse of the future. It can still be done. Might get more fans :)

twinsnorth49
01-13-2013, 01:16 PM
At this point Lohse is not worth the pick considering where this team is headed, let alone the money.

Willihammer
01-13-2013, 01:45 PM
The guys to target, in my opinion, were all of Baker, Villanueva, McCarthy and Liriano. They could have matched their current offers, thrown in four $5m signing bonuses to boot, and still barely cracked 90m payroll. If everything clicks, heck if 2/4 click, you have a pretty formidable rotation, and then you get to roll the dice again in a 2nd year for 1/2 price (except possibly with Baker).

cmathewson
01-13-2013, 01:56 PM
I'm not going to defend Mr. Ryan for not getting someone like Jackson at that price, but I'm good with not giving some of the contracts that have been given. And, I'm very hopeful for Liam Hendriks to take a step forward in 2013. I'm very excited to see how Kyle Gibson does as he breaks into the big leagues. Can Scott Diamond come close to duplicating his 2012 season? What do the Twins really have in Alex Meyer and Trevor May? How quickly can some of those college relievers get up here? Will Anthony Slama get a chance? There are reasons for optimism, and that's not even talking about the likes of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee and others. I certainly wouldn't give up on Brian Dozier at this point.

I don't think the Twins were legitimately going to compete in 2013 regardless. Detroit is too good. But I am very excited about the direction of the team. And frankly, young, talented players are much more valuable than just spending money to spend money.

Sometimes I feel like a few people would be happier if the Twins would have given Correia 2 years and $50 million because then the payroll would be back at $100 million and "at least the Pohlad's won't pocket it."


I agree with this. The reality: The free-agent market was thin. Sanchez was the best guy available for anything close to what the Twins could pay and Detroit overpaid for him by at least $5 million a year. I would have liked to get McCarthy, but he's not had one healthy season in his whole career. Ryan did the cost/benefit analysis and decided to sign the guys he did. He traded what he could trade for pitching without completely ransacking the roster.

One thing that is taken for granted by all those down on Correia is missing bats is the only valuable thing in a pitcher. The stat I'd like to see is pitches per out. I don't know if anyone even tracks this, but it is clearly what the Twins care about. To get innings out of a guy, he has to get a lot of quick outs. Strikeout pitchers throw a lot of pitches. So they end up eating fewer innings than guys who pitch to contact. The Twins needed a guy who would give them innings. In this market, it meant getting a guy who didn't strike guys out. To have both, you'd need to spend between $80 and $100 million and Ryan was not going to do that, nor should he. So he made a modest investment to get an innings eater. Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery.

You can say all you want about what Ryan should have done. This is Nelson's third polemic on the topic (counting filling in for the Geek on the podcast). But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. The Royals acquired pitching by depleting their deep farm system. That wasn't an option for the Twins either. Aside from center fielders, the Twins did not have a lot of surplus talent at any one position. I for one am glad they didn't send someone like Sano to the Rays for Shields. Let's see how this plays out. Sometimes fans have to be patient to ultimately get what they want.

Brandon
01-13-2013, 02:20 PM
CMathewson, the post directly above yours disproves your points. Baker, Villanueva, McCarthy and Liriano were all potential solid signing cnadidates that TR could have paid more to get and had on short term contracts which is what he wanted to begin with. Say we sign Villanueva and Marcum instead of Corriea and Pelfry (though I am ok with Pelfry signing he might turn out) . That might cost us a few million more this year but we would be more competetive with them. Also with all of the young and cheap talent on the way from the minors, (Meyer, May, Gibson, Hendricks, Barrios) plus Diamond and Worely, we will have money available to pay one starting pitcher 10 million or so if they work out. That would give us a deep rotation in the future. (Also regarding cheap talent comming up there are several position players too so the entire team payroll will go downin 2014 and 2015.) I like most of what Ryan got accomplished. I am perplexed by what pitching they targeted and that they don't seem interested in pursuing other opportunities to improve the club (Marcum SP, Sanchez 2B, Johnson 2B and more) and that for a team so penny conscious they seem inclined to start Hicks in CF right out the gate instead of waiting 2 months in AAA for the FA and arbitration clock to set one year later.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 02:45 PM
But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. t.

There are 10 pages of solid material to refute the overly-wordy crap you posted that is best reduced to this statement.

Big City
01-13-2013, 02:48 PM
Not to mention, if Marcum is out of the Twins price range, Lohse certainly is even if he didn't come with the additional tax of a draft pick.

A draft pick, yes, but it would only be a # 42/43/44/45, somewhere in that range since their first pick is protected. Still, I doubt Lohse is the type of target the Twins would go after being his age and demands in years and dollars.

People have become very impatient with the Twins this offseason but there's still a few decent FA SP's on the market. Consider if the Twins sign Marcum and Saunders, would this offseason be a bust? If you're a GM, would you sign your starting pitching depth or your rotation locks first? Common sense would say those depth SP's wouldn't sign unless they saw an opportunity in the rotation. If the Twins had signed Marcum and Saunders first, would Pelfrey and Correia signed? I say, probably not. I think a rotation of...

Marcum
Diamond
Worley
Saunders
Pelfrey/Hendricks/Correia

...has some potential.

Alex
01-13-2013, 02:49 PM
Thers's no way this FA market was thin for starting pitching, no way. If you think this, you need to take a look at the market in previous years and remember this one for next.

Though, if you're the Twins and want decent pitching for under $5M your market will always be thin.

old nurse
01-13-2013, 03:11 PM
Is the fascination with Lirano and Villaneuva the high K/9 totals? The last two years as a starter Villanueva had an ERA over 4.5. His xfip overall and his overall ERA were about equal. Other than strikeouts, what does he bring to the team?

lightfoot789
01-13-2013, 03:12 PM
I like what CMathewSon has to say. "Patience is a Virtue" It is not like we have been waiting for a good team for countless years. You made the playoffs 3 years ago. And in the playoffs anything can happen. Our time is coming.

You could be the CUBS - PADRES - ROYALS - PIRATES. You are the Twins who have shown, they know how to win - even if not during these last 2 seasons. "Patience is a Virtue"

ThePuck
01-13-2013, 03:16 PM
Yes, anything can happen in the playoffs, but we're 2-15 the last 5 playoff series, we've lost 12 straight playoff games and we've been swept the last three appearances

mike wants wins
01-13-2013, 03:24 PM
Just curious, how many bad years should we endure before we lose patience?

I think some people seem to think this is an either or thing. Either they sign FA, or they do the draft thing. I don't see anyone here clamoring for them to not draft players. I don't see anyone here clamoring for them to gut the farm system. I see people suggesting they sign some legit starting FA pitching. If you think this market is thin, wait until next year, when it is projected to be thinner. How does signing a legit pitcher for real money this year hurt them, at all? They are under budget. The budget will go down next year, while income goes up. So, it can't be about having money next year, or even the year after (when Doumit and Willingham's deals are up). So, how does "overspending" by paying market prices this year hurt them at all?

And, if one of the reasons players won't sign here is the Twins are bad (which I don't believe, but some of you do), what makes you think a pitcher would sign here next year if they have a third bad year in a row? What makes you think Morneau would re-sign here?

Alex
01-13-2013, 03:33 PM
I like what CMathewSon has to say. "Patience is a Virtue" It is not like we have been waiting for a good team for countless years. You made the playoffs 3 years ago. And in the playoffs anything can happen. Our time is coming

This isn't about not fielding a good team....

It's about not even making simple moves to field an interesting, competitive team for the next season.

It's about doing the exact opposite of what the stated benefit would be from a stadium funded heavily with taxpayer dollars.

Most of us realized they weren't going to the World Series this year, or even the playoffs, but give me something to watch. Give me a reason to come out to the field rather than the beautiful field itself, which by the way, is going to see another precipitous drop in attendance this year if this is how the offseason remains.

One argument here is that FA don't want to come to the Twins. I don't buy it, but guess what you need to do to get them here if that IS the case? You need to pay them actually money and you need to be competitive. A team that pushes .500 next season would make it look like the Twins are at least interested in being competitive and not putting all their chips in for a farm system that looks promising but may never arrive at the level we hope.

TheLeviathan
01-13-2013, 03:45 PM
A team that pushes .500 next season would make it look like the Twins are at least interested in being competitive and not putting all their chips in for a farm system that looks promising but may never arrive at the level we hope.

Not to mention the fact that Shaun Marcum and Kelly Johnson wouldn't cost more than what the Pohlad's will currently be pocketing and neither of them are blocking any prospects. There is no defensible reason not to take these gambles.

Alex
01-13-2013, 04:32 PM
Listening to G and G podcast now. Here are the rough numbers: Gleeman mentions he remembers something like thirty pitchers better than Correia available. Also that about 10 signed 1 year deals. So, how is the market so thin again?

They also mention, based on Wolfson's info, based on another podcast that the Twins never really made offers to many of the players we've talked about, essentially refuting the point that some have been arguing that we don't know whether or not they've made offers.

old nurse
01-13-2013, 04:37 PM
[QUOTE= There is no defensible reason not to take these gambles.[/QUOTE]

1. A Pohlad cruise with 400 of his friends. No media members, and probably not you either.
2. They found their bong from college and are sitting around stoned. They are now thinking that Linecum is a great idea to sign. They wonder why his agent won't return their call.
3. They forgot they traded Hardy. They thought when he comes off the dl he would fill one of the two holes in MI
4.. Not being fluent in Spanish they thought they somehow got Espinosa rather than Escobar. That guy with the last name starting with E will come around soon and play like his former self.

old nurse
01-13-2013, 04:39 PM
Listening to G and G podcast now. Here are the rough numbers: Gleeman mentions he remembers something like thirty pitchers better than Correia available. Also that about 10 signed 1 year deals. So, how is the market so thin again?

They also mention, based on Wolfson's info, based on another podcast that the Twins never really made offers to many of the players we've talked about, essentially refuting the point that some have been arguing that we don't know whether or not they've made offers.
Where is there a list published of players they talked to?

Alex
01-13-2013, 04:41 PM
Where is there a list published of players they talked to?

Listen to the podcast with Wolfson. It's the best information you're going to get on the topic. It's discussed at length. #73

lightfoot789
01-13-2013, 05:16 PM
G & G are great, but I doubt they have the sources Buster Onley has. I haven't heard of this list on any other MLB site. And the answer to the above post is 3 to 4 years before you jump ship and ask for a mans head.

Found a great site for 2012 stats: MLB Stats - MLB Team Isolated Power on TeamRankings.com (http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/isolated-power)

What we definitely need moving forward are Power Bats and Pitching like we did in 2012 draft class.
Our current Farm Pitchers and this years top draft Pick (2013) will allow us to simulate what the Rays have done for recent years. Grow strong pitching from within and thru trades. We are set up to be very good thru 2020 at the rate we are going. Just not in 2013 :)
If we can get a few other pitching "Top" prospects thru mid season trades (M/W/M) and we are golden. Love where we are headed.

Alex
01-13-2013, 05:21 PM
The source is Darren Wolfson who's pretty plugged in, and they're referencing him, just to be clear.

old nurse
01-13-2013, 07:57 PM
Listen to the podcast with Wolfson. It's the best information you're going to get on the topic. It's discussed at length. #73

Once again. If you were looking for a pretty darn good pitcher there really wasn't a whole lot out there. Using WAR on fan graphs, not the best but not the worst statistic, there were 11free agent pitchers above 2 for both of the last two years. If you look on their leader board 2.4 is the median WAR for all pitchers pitching a minimum of 120 innings. So if you were expecting the Twins to go after good pitching, it doesn't matter the number, it matters who they went after.

Alex
01-13-2013, 08:59 PM
Once again. If you were looking for a pretty darn good pitcher there really wasn't a whole lot out there. Using WAR on fan graphs, not the best but not the worst statistic, there were 11free agent pitchers above 2 for both of the last two years. If you look on their leader board 2.4 is the median WAR for all pitchers pitching a minimum of 120 innings. .

I'm sure we can mince data and statistics (For example 2.0 WAR is representative of starter at any position, so calling it the median, is, imo, misleading, especially when the bottom is not zero).

Even if we agree to use yours, which I will for this post, then we agree that it would be the same as last year. Not better, not thin. Fine. Moving on.


If you look on their leader board 2.4 is the median WAR for all pitchers pitching a minimum of 120 innings..

Please go here: Minnesota Twins 2012 Pitching Statistics - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/min/minnesota-twins) (I used this for a nice easy sort)

You'll note that the Twins starting staff had a combined negative WAR, and it's not really even close, sadly.

Only one pitcher, Scott Diamond, had a WAR over 2 (2.2). Deduno and Deveries were the only other two positive WAR pitchers at a whopping .6 and .2. Nick Blackburn was a -2.3 WAR pitcher.

So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs.

Do you know what Correia's WAR was? -.1. While WAR is an ambiguous stat, it points out why people are flabbergasted by the signing. Cole Devries in that spot would be an improvement and save $9M dollars.


So if you were expecting the Twins to go after good pitching, it doesn't matter the number, it matters who they went after.

I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.

Ultima Ratio
01-13-2013, 11:26 PM
Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery.



He might not win more than 5 games. Seriously.

old nurse
01-14-2013, 09:31 AM
I'
So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs.




I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.

There are many different reports from other writers besides Doogie in the airwaves. Heyman, Bollinger, LEN III all put out many little snippets. The Twins did have a bad rotation last year. The only name ever reported that would make a significant difference in the staff the Twins were interested in was Dempster. There was a note one time they talked to Sanchez. Saunders, Meyers, Lannan et al are not top of the rotation guys. Adding them would not have made a significant difference. So you are correct, they did not really go after decent pitching.

lightfoot789
01-14-2013, 09:55 AM
Love the thought process - I'm just saying .......... Have Faith
Read: Why Cheap = Smart in 2013 - Puckett's Pond - A Minnesota Twins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More (http://puckettspond.com/2013/01/14/why-cheap-smart-in-2013/)

Nick Nelson
01-14-2013, 11:29 AM
Correia might not win more than 10 games, but he will take pressure off the bullpen and the rest of the staff, which is a work in progress with a lot of young guys coming off of surgery.
This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago.


You can say all you want about what Ryan should have done. This is Nelson's third polemic on the topic (counting filling in for the Geek on the podcast). But unless you're prepared to do the cost/benefit analysis of what was available, the words are sung with discord. The Royals acquired pitching by depleting their deep farm system. That wasn't an option for the Twins either. Aside from center fielders, the Twins did not have a lot of surplus talent at any one position. I for one am glad they didn't send someone like Sano to the Rays for Shields. Let's see how this plays out. Sometimes fans have to be patient to ultimately get what they want.
No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?


There are 10 pages of solid material to refute the overly-wordy crap you posted that is best reduced to this statement.
There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

jokin
01-14-2013, 12:57 PM
It could have been worse. He could have said MSNBC.

Or Al Gorezeera...

jokin
01-14-2013, 01:19 PM
No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?
.

Truer words have never before been written by Nick Nelson.

I've been of the mind that the Twins goal is to field a Rays-level of competitiveness-and more importantly payroll- but not until 2015. The Rays won the AL in 2008, in a worst-to-first run, following a succession of previous years at the bottom of the AL East. The Rays opening-day payroll in 08? $43.7M. At the rate that the Twins are headed, they likely to be fielding a 2015 team with Joe Mauer being one of the only players making much more than $1M. Of course, the fly in the ointment for this scenario is that the Twins haven't demonstrated that they can consistently develop and trade for young talent to regain contender status that quickly.

The tolerance level for the current putrid on-field product on the part of writers like Mackey and certain fans/posters is headscratching in the extreme.

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 01:28 PM
Truer words have never before been written by Nick Nelson.

I've been of the mind that the Twins goal is to field a Rays-level of competitiveness-and more importantly payroll- but not until 2015. The Rays won the AL in 2008, in a worst-to-first run, following a succession of previous years at the bottom of the AL East. The Rays opening-day payroll in 08? $43.7M. At the rate that the Twins are headed, they likely to be fielding a 2015 team with Joe Mauer being one of the only players making much more than $1M. Of course, the fly in the ointment for this scenario is that the Twins haven't demonstrated that they can consistently develop and trade for young talent to regain contender status that quickly.

The tolerance level for the current putrid on-field product on the part of writers like Mackey and certain fans/posters is headscratching in the extreme.

2015 would be a dream as well. Most of out better prospects should be up by then (with the probable exception of Berrios and Buxton), but that is hardly gonna make them automatically competitive. Gonna take some time after that

jokin
01-14-2013, 01:33 PM
I'm sure we can mince data and statistics (For example 2.0 WAR is representative of starter at any position, so calling it the median, is, imo, misleading, especially when the bottom is not zero).

Even if we agree to use yours, which I will for this post, then we agree that it would be the same as last year. Not better, not thin. Fine. Moving on.



Please go here: Minnesota Twins 2012 Pitching Statistics - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/min/minnesota-twins) (I used this for a nice easy sort)

You'll note that the Twins starting staff had a combined negative WAR, and it's not really even close, sadly.

Only one pitcher, Scott Diamond, had a WAR over 2 (2.2). Deduno and Deveries were the only other two positive WAR pitchers at a whopping .6 and .2. Nick Blackburn was a -2.3 WAR pitcher.

So adding "average" pitcher 2.4 WAR is a huge net gain to replace Blackburn, The equivalent of adding a HOF pitcher to most staffs.

Do you know what Correia's WAR was? -.1. While WAR is an ambiguous stat, it points out why people are flabbergasted by the signing. Cole Devries in that spot would be an improvement and save $9M dollars.



I'd argue it matters who they got, and I'd also point out that based on reports, they didn't really go after even decent pitching. Whether or not that's true, it doesn't matter at this point. The biggest chunk of money used this offseason was poorly spent and they sat on the rest <or> didn't make offers enticing enough to get anyone better. As such, we have a rotation that will likely still be the worst in the league next year.

Excellent points, parts of which have been used in futile attempts to persuade Nurse to change his outlook in the past. As usual, when it comes to Twins-defending, the OleNurse faithfully follows the UNCF credo...'A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Waste': An Iconic Campaign Turns 40 | GoodWorks - Advertising Age (http://adage.com/article/goodworks/a-mind-a-terrible-thing-waste-iconic-campaign-turns-40/149182/)

jokin
01-14-2013, 01:40 PM
2015 would be a dream as well. Most of out better prospects should be up by then (with the probable exception of Berrios and Buxton), but that is hardly gonna make them automatically competitive. Gonna take some time after that



I agree, merely stating my vision of the Twins' very own homegrown pipedream.

Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Minier all possibly 2016? It would be nice if they could get the #1 pick and get Appel, he'd be well on his way to becoming staff ace in 2015, even if he doesn't match his current MLB projection.

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 01:43 PM
I agree, merely stating my vision of the Twins' very own homegrown pipedream.

Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Minier all possibly 2016? It would be nice if they could get the #1 pick and get Appel, he'd be well on his way to becoming staff ace in 2015, even if he doesn't match his current MLB projection.

I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

Ultima Ratio
01-14-2013, 01:45 PM
I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome
Didn't the Pirates draft him last year?

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 02:00 PM
Didn't the Pirates draft him last year?

Oh right, my bad...Stros didn't draft him because he (Boras) basically said Appel wouldn't sign with them if he took him.

Thanks for the refresher.

SweetOne69
01-14-2013, 02:09 PM
This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago.


No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.

If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?


There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

It's one thing to expect prospects/rookies to contribute, but it appears that the Twins' expect them all to perform at ROY levels.

As has been mentioned before, the core of the '87 championship team began their careers in '82. It took a few years of playing together to finally gel into a complete club.

jokin
01-14-2013, 02:23 PM
I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

Why? He'd just sign with that other MN team and then be able to sign with anyone the following season. The Twins should seriously consider an Indy Colts-type strategy that got them quite a bit of Luck in the NFL draft.

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 02:30 PM
Why? He'd just sign with that other MN team and then be able to sign with anyone the following season. The Twins should seriously consider an Indy Colts-type strategy that got them quite a bit of Luck in the NFL draft.

which is what the plan was last year...and he had Stanford to fall back on. You're right though, he could choose not to sign again...that'd be interesting

Ultima Ratio
01-14-2013, 02:38 PM
which is what the plan was last year...and he had Stanford to fall back on. You're right though, he could choose not to sign again...that'd be interesting


Why would he not sign when drafted this year? If it doesn't wouldn't he be missing out on millions by signing to the team that drafted him (in signing bonus)? If he doesn't sign, doesn't that bonus money go away? I don't understand the leverage Appel would have or the motivation to not sign as high as possible this year.

Alex
01-14-2013, 02:44 PM
Why would he not sign when drafted this year? If it doesn't wouldn't he be missing out on millions by signing to the team that drafted him (in signing bonus)? If he doesn't sign, doesn't that bonus money go away? I don't understand the leverage Appel would have or the motivation to not sign as high as possible this year.

I'd agree that he has far less leverage this year which makes the non-signing last year baffling to me.

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 02:52 PM
Why would he not sign when drafted this year? If it doesn't wouldn't he be missing out on millions by signing to the team that drafted him (in signing bonus)? If he doesn't sign, doesn't that bonus money go away? I don't understand the leverage Appel would have or the motivation to not sign as high as possible this year.

If they aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth?

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 02:55 PM
I'd agree that he has far less leverage this year which makes the non-signing last year baffling to me.

He was expected to be the first pick by many, but after statements by Boras, Stros went for a sure thing...Twins followed suit, and on and on till the Pirates took a chance. Boras cried cause he wanted way more money for his guy than was slotted for as the #8 pick. Now Houston has the #1 pick again, like they did last year.

jokin
01-14-2013, 02:57 PM
If they aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth?

Or, more importantly what Boras thinks he's worth. Never underestimate the evil genius, he's had the wags scratching their collective heads in the past, and his clients usually come out of difficult contract situations pretty wealthy.

Ultima Ratio
01-14-2013, 02:59 PM
If they aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth?

Why would he chose not to sign this year? What's the upside?

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 02:59 PM
Why would he chose not to sign this year? What's the upside?

I never said there was an upside.

Ultima Ratio
01-14-2013, 03:00 PM
I never said there was an upside.

Then why wouldn't he sign if there's no upside to not signing?

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 03:03 PM
Then why wouldn't he sign if there's no upside to not signing?

If he didn't think he was getting what Boras thinks he's worth, he may be convinced to not sign...like last year. Doesn't mean there really is upside.

If you follow the conversation, I wasn't the one who originally suggested he might not sign this year...i just gave a possible reason as to why if he didn't. I think he will sign, but if not, that would be the reason...

Ultima Ratio
01-14-2013, 03:11 PM
If he didn't think he was getting what Boras thinks he's worth, he may be convinced to not sign...like last year. Doesn't mean there really is upside.

If you follow the conversation, I wasn't the one who originally suggested he might not sign this year...i just gave a possible reason as to why if he didn't. I think he will sign, but if not, that would be the reason...

I did follow the conversation. You and Jokin both say the he might choose not to sign. All I'm naively asking is why given that he'd lose out on signing bonus money. It doesn't make sense to me, but since you say he might, I thought maybe you had a reason why he'd do that. I'm granting the fact that I may be missing something here that would make him not signing a option worthing of considering. But, from what I understand there isn't.

Ultima Ratio
01-14-2013, 03:13 PM
Maybe he doesn't sign with the Astros just out of spite?

ThePuck
01-14-2013, 03:25 PM
I did follow the conversation. You and Jokin both say the he might choose not to sign. All I'm naively asking is why given that he'd lose out on signing bonus money. It doesn't make sense to me, but since you say he might, I thought maybe you had a reason why he'd do that. I'm granting the fact that I may be missing something here that would make him not signing a option worthing of considering. But, from what I understand there isn't.

I gave you the only reason I can think of like three times. I'm not sure what else you want from me. Someone else said he might. I said it's possible, but that doesn't mean I think he will...nor do I think there'd be an advantage. I said it was possible.

TheLeviathan
01-14-2013, 03:54 PM
There's no need for this kind of vitriol in every post, Lev. You can disagree with people's points without using such insulting language.

It's far from every post, especially in this thread I've tried to stick very hard to the points. But if you're going to jump into a 10 page thread - read it first would be my advice for that poster. Most of that trumped up post had been responded to multiple times, it was annoying to have it rehashed again.

beckmt
01-14-2013, 04:10 PM
Maybe Boris is playing Appel for a dupe. Planning to use him in a slavery court case to void the Players Agreement and making all unsigned talent free agents available to the highest payer.

cmathewson
01-14-2013, 11:47 PM
This sounds like something we might have read about Jason Marquis a year ago.

I can see the comparison in terms of stuff but not durability. Marquis was a huge injury risk when he signed. Also, the kind of thing Marquis went through to miss spring training is as likely to happen to Correia as getting hit by lightening.



No one has suggested that the Twins trade valuable assets to acquire pitching. This thread is about free agency, and the only thing that the team needs to give up to get better players through this avenue is money that otherwise will not be spent. In that light, the cost vs. benefit analysis that you suggest changes in dynamic. The cost is insignificant in the grand scheme, and the benefit is a better product and a demonstrated commitment to getting better after two brutally awful years.


I was referring to your first post expressing disappointment with Ryan, comparing this offseason with the Royals. Not a valid comparison for the reasons I gave. Ryan traded for talent that will be ready in 2014. The Royals traded for talent that is ready now and will be gone in 2014. I'd rather wait than give up top talent to win now.



If people think the Twins are going to magically return to contention in 2014 on the shoulders of their current prospects they are living in a dream world; as has been mentioned before, they'll likely have the same excuses for sitting out free agency in a year as they do now. Why should we accept four straight seasons of non-competitive baseball without any meaningful effort being put toward giving fans an interesting and watchable product in the meantime?



I don't agree. They now have four highly touted pitching prospects who are former first round draft picks and who will likely be ready by 2014 (counting Wimmers). Add Worley and Diamond and they have the makings of a very good young staff.

When people do simple numerical analysis of the Twins starters in 2012, they seem to forget that much of the horror happened with guys who will not even be in the running for jobs in 2013 (Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, Marquis, Swarzak). Some guys who will be in the running actually pitched decently (Diamond, Deduno, DeVries). Based on what I saw in the second half, combined with the additions, it won't be nearly as bad as the numbers indicated in 2012. It won't be enough to contend, but we won't have to play from 5 runs down in the second inning every game like last year.

old nurse
01-15-2013, 12:31 AM
Excellent points, parts of which have been used in futile attempts to persuade Nurse to change his outlook in the past. As usual, when it comes to Twins-defending, the OleNurse faithfully follows the UNCF credo...'A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Waste': An Iconic Campaign Turns 40 | GoodWorks - Advertising Age (http://adage.com/article/goodworks/a-mind-a-terrible-thing-waste-iconic-campaign-turns-40/149182/)

The point has always been that signing any of these less than average available pitchers on the free agent market will not make the Twins better. The other point has been no one has a clue what the contact with the upper echelon free agents has been. If they do not want to come here there is no point in negotiating. I won't stoop to the comment on wasting minds.

johnnydakota
01-15-2013, 12:31 AM
Then why wouldn't he sign if there's no upside to not signing?

Boras.............

old nurse
01-15-2013, 12:43 AM
I'm hoping Stros draft Appel again and offer him even less than they did last year. That'd be awesome

The Pirates drafted Appel with the eight selection last year. Last year the Astros drafted Carlos Correa with the first selection. This year the Pirates draft 14. I doubt Appel would be there. If he was, then Pittsburg would have less money in their pool to offer him. Last year the slot money for #1 was 7.2 million, #8 2.9 million. #14 2.375 million. Had the Astros drafted him and he had not signed, Appel would have the right to request not to be drafted by the Astros again. He might make the request Pittsburg not draft him again however I am sure he is confident that will not be an issue.

ThePuck
01-15-2013, 06:34 AM
The Pirates drafted Appel with the eight selection last year. Last year the Astros drafted Carlos Correa with the first selection. This year the Pirates draft 14. I doubt Appel would be there. If he was, then Pittsburg would have less money in their pool to offer him. Last year the slot money for #1 was 7.2 million, #8 2.9 million. #14 2.375 million. Had the Astros drafted him and he had not signed, Appel would have the right to request not to be drafted by the Astros again. He might make the request Pittsburg not draft him again however I am sure he is confident that will not be an issue.

If you read the thread, I was already shown the error of my ways and I clarified what I meant. Thanks for the reminder again, though.

Nick Nelson
01-15-2013, 05:15 PM
I can see the comparison in terms of stuff but not durability. Marquis was a huge injury risk when he signed. Also, the kind of thing Marquis went through to miss spring training is as likely to happen to Correia as getting hit by lightening.
So you're saying all that was responsible for Marquis' bad results and not the fact that he's, ya know, not very good? Is the same true for the rest of the sub par veterans the Twins have signed on the cheap in past years who have also produced horrible results?


I was referring to your first post expressing disappointment with Ryan, comparing this offseason with the Royals. Not a valid comparison for the reasons I gave. Ryan traded for talent that will be ready in 2014. The Royals traded for talent that is ready now and will be gone in 2014. I'd rather wait than give up top talent to win now.
The point being made was that the Royals, like the rest of the division, were actively attempting to improve their rotation for 2013. It was not an endorsement of their approach, although I wouldn't have minded the Santana or Guthrie moves for the Twins.


I don't agree. They now have four highly touted pitching prospects who are former first round draft picks and who will likely be ready by 2014 (counting Wimmers). Add Worley and Diamond and they have the makings of a very good young staff.

When people do simple numerical analysis of the Twins starters in 2012, they seem to forget that much of the horror happened with guys who will not even be in the running for jobs in 2013 (Pavano, Blackburn, Liriano, Marquis, Swarzak). Some guys who will be in the running actually pitched decently (Diamond, Deduno, DeVries). Based on what I saw in the second half, combined with the additions, it won't be nearly as bad as the numbers indicated in 2012. It won't be enough to contend, but we won't have to play from 5 runs down in the second inning every game like last year.
Where do people get the idea that non-elite pitching prospects routinely come up and become rotation staples right away? Far more frequently, these kids come up, get beat around a bit, shuttle back and forth from Triple-A and eventually settle in after two or three seasons. We've seen it with Baker and Garza, we're seeing it now with Hendriks. A couple 22-year-olds who haven't yet solved Double-A are probably a fair distance from solving the major leagues, and that's IF they stay healthy, on track and don't end up in the bullpen.

As for your second paragraph, I tend to agree that the returning contingent has a decent shot at being much better than people expect. But that would make it all the more frustrating that the club didn't give them more help.