PDA

View Full Version : Article: Is Joe Mauer a lock for the HOF?



Cody Christie
12-20-2012, 08:35 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1265-Is-Joe-Mauer-a-lock-for-the-HOF

SockNet
12-20-2012, 09:08 AM
Interesting to think of. I think Mauer will be one of the first players to loose votes because he didn't live up to the expectations of his contract in the era of the mega deals, even if his numbers alone still suggest he should be in.

gunnarthor
12-20-2012, 09:10 AM
I think he's pretty close. He needs 10 years, of course, but that comes after this season. He's still in his prime but his peak has been pretty darn good. I don't think he needs another 2009 season (although I hope he has several), just a few more solid Mauer years.

It'll be interesting to see how the voters look at him, long term. It's stereotyping but traditional voters won't like his low power numbers but will probably like his avg/batting titles. New voters will look at WAR which, b/c of it's defensive problems, probably underrates Mauer. He compares pretty well at this point of his career with other HOF catchers. Durability will be key but I think he rather easily makes it in.

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 09:20 AM
Based on the history he's already made, the stuff he's already done that no one else at his position has, I'd be shocked beyond belief if he didn't make it

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-20-2012, 09:25 AM
As long as injuries don't derail his career and he can stick at catcher at least half time over the next couple years he should be a first ballot guy. He is already one of the best 3 or 4 catchers of all time.

SmokedEyelids
12-20-2012, 09:25 AM
I think he needs to remain at catcher as long as possible to have a chance at making it in. As a catcher, his numbers and his value are astronomical. As a first baseman, or even third basemen, they'd merely be very good. If he's able to catch half of the season for the next 4-6 seasons, while still maintaining a high average, OBP, etc., I think he gets in.

gunnarthor
12-20-2012, 09:40 AM
As long as injuries don't derail his career and he can stick at catcher at least half time over the next couple years he should be a first ballot guy. He is already one of the best 3 or 4 catchers of all time.

I think he's still out of the top 5 - Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Rodriguez, Piazza and Carter are all still above him. And don't underrate a guy like Campanella. Because of segregation, he didn't get to the majors until he was 26 and a fulltimer at 27. He played 10 years and won 3 MVPs. Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

Seth Stohs
12-20-2012, 09:43 AM
As has been mentioned, he does need one more season, although even DL seasons count. so, he's a lock already. Yes, it'd be great for him to catch around half of the time for the next few years, but everything at this point is just bonus for HOF voters.

lee_the_twins_fan
12-20-2012, 10:01 AM
Interesting to think of. I think Mauer will be one of the first players to loose votes because he didn't live up to the expectations of his contract in the era of the mega deals, even if his numbers alone still suggest he should be in.

Didn't live up to the expectations of his contract? You're joking, right?

In this day of moving players around to different positions, and the expectation to protect Mauer foKevin h of the rest of his contract will weigh on HOF voters, but he remains one of the best hitters in the game average-wise, if not power-wise. His on-base percentage has been great, and I consider him to be a strong leader off the field as well. I fully expect Mauer several years from now to become a major league manager, perhaps even with the Twins.

Some people expect too much when a player signs a big contract. But I'd rather have Mauer than four Kevin Correias. He works hard and he's a great player.

It's premature to think about if Mauer could make the HOF. He's (hopefully) got another 10 years or so of baseball left in him. Let's ask this question again in five more years.

East Coast Twin
12-20-2012, 10:02 AM
. . .Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

. . as would Bill Dickey.

nick5253
12-20-2012, 10:05 AM
Interesting to think of. I think Mauer will be one of the first players to loose votes because he didn't live up to the expectations of his contract in the era of the mega deals, even if his numbers alone still suggest he should be in.

I highly disagree. I don't think voters ever consider the salary of a player when voting for HOF. And since salaries continue to rise, 5 years after Mauer has retired, 23 mil per year will seem like a small sum for a potential HOFer.

I have never understood why fans care about salaries and whether or not the player is 'earning' the salary. If you look at WAR and a simplified 5 mil per win, Mauer has greatly exceeded his salary and 'earned' quite a bit of that contract:
Career to Date Earnings: $85 Mil
Career to Date WAR: 40.1

Career to Date Value: $200.5 Mil

Willihammer
12-20-2012, 10:09 AM
Well he has a MVP which should be good for at least 50% of the BBWAA votes automatically.

Sssuperdave
12-20-2012, 10:13 AM
I can think of three scenarios, and in 2 of the 3 he makes the hall of fame.

Scenario #1 (most likely in my opinion): Mauer has another productive 5-10 years, no more MVPs or 1000+ OPS's like 2009, but quite a few years over .300, and maybe another batting title, evenutally changes positions. I think he's a hall-of-fame lock under this scenario.

Scenario #2: The wheels fall off.. for some reason or other, perhaps injury, his number revert to 2011 levels permanently. He makes it another 5 - 8 years, but isn't very good. I don't think he has quite enough to make the hall under this scenario, and fans are incensed at his contract.

Scenario #3: He has a tragic career ending injury ala Puckett. Like Puckett, I think he makes the hall of fame under this scenario. Yes, he doesn't quite have Puckett's slugging/power numbers, but he has a stretch of 9 years that is arguably the best 9-year offensive stretch for any catcher in history. I think voters would give him the benefit of the doubt that scenario #1 would have happened, and he gets in.

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 10:14 AM
Well he has a MVP which should be good for at least 50% of the BBWAA votes automatically.

Tell that to Dale Murphy :-)

jwestbrock
12-20-2012, 10:18 AM
I would say he has a very strong chance. It comes down to how much he catches the rest of the way. If he catches 80-110 games a year for at least 3-4 more years, which I think he would do if they were contending and needing to put the best lineup on the field most days, that would keep him considered a catcher to most people, which will help his chances.

He is sitting at 40.1 Fangraphs WAR (38.0 Baseball-Reference). That averages out to about 4.5 WAR/year. If he declines relatively steadily (by say 0.5 WAR/year) he would end up around 56 WAR, good for the back end of the top ten all-time for catchers and top 150 overall. Whether you believe in WAR or not, that is pretty good company. If he maintains a 4-5 WAR/year for a couple more years and then declines steadily, then we are talking about borderline top 5 for catchers and borderline top-100. Pretty good case then.

Shane Wahl
12-20-2012, 10:26 AM
Barring career-ending injury in the next three years, yes, Joe Mauer is a lock for the HoF.

bmantfan
12-20-2012, 10:30 AM
Joe Mauer well be in the hall of fame because numbers are the only thing they look at. He's a great guy off the field and on the field. Also he plays the game right without using drugs.

Gardy32
12-20-2012, 10:34 AM
I highly disagree. I don't think voters ever consider the salary of a player when voting for HOF. And since salaries continue to rise, 5 years after Mauer has retired, 23 mil per year will seem like a small sum for a potential HOFer.

I have never understood why fans care about salaries and whether or not the player is 'earning' the salary. If you look at WAR and a simplified 5 mil per win, Mauer has greatly exceeded his salary and 'earned' quite a bit of that contract:
Career to Date Earnings: $85 Mil
Career to Date WAR: 40.1

Career to Date Value: $200.5 Mil


I can't speak for other people, but the main reason I care about players' salaries is that the team only has so much money to spend. We can argue about self-imposed caps by the Twins all day long, but when it comes down to it, they only spend so much on the players.

It's all about value. A team built around players earning less than they're "worth" should have money to go out and get that slugger on the free agent market. They can go get that SP that puts them over the edge. I want to have a team that's being paid $100M but WAR says should be paid $200M or $300M based on production. This year has basically been punted on, but rebuilding should mean shedding contracts that overpay (think Vernon Wells and Soriano) based on past production. Which is good for the long-term health of the organization. Then you build your nucleus by locking down consistent players for under market value, leading to an excess of money to fill out the roster with whatever you couldn't develop on the farm.

Basically I care about players' salaries because i think that getting better value out of current contracts leads to more wins and the potential to fill holes.

Sorry this was so basic and maybe even patronizing. I just think it's something that should be cared about and understood for everyone hoping for their team to get W's.

mbgopher
12-20-2012, 10:43 AM
First, the player's contract shouldn't set the context of whether or not he was an elite player in his time. Salary has no impact on whether or not a candidate deserves entry.

Second, you say the "era of mega deals" as if this is a temporary phase that the game is seeing. I guess in theory it could be, but in all likelihood, contracts will become more and more ridiculous as teams lock up young talent early on (ex: Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, etc.), straining the free agent market and driving up the market price of elite (ex: Zach Greinke) and mediocre players.

Dave T
12-20-2012, 10:48 AM
Mauer will walk into the HOF on the first ballot, even if he finishes his career as a DH. What is this "nearly a lock" B.S.
Now, I think you can argue he is overpaid, considering the decline in his innings as a catcher. But with the ridiculous contracts being handed out to free agents these days, that argument is over as well. There's more money than talent in baseball these days.

Shane Wahl
12-20-2012, 10:56 AM
He was underpaid every year he was healthy before 2011. In 2012 he was back right on the value of his contract.

70charger
12-20-2012, 10:58 AM
I can't speak for other people, but the main reason I care about players' salaries is that the team only has so much money to spend. We can argue about self-imposed caps by the Twins all day long, but when it comes down to it, they only spend so much on the players.

It's all about value. A team built around players earning less than they're "worth" should have money to go out and get that slugger on the free agent market. They can go get that SP that puts them over the edge. I want to have a team that's being paid $100M but WAR says should be paid $200M or $300M based on production. This year has basically been punted on, but rebuilding should mean shedding contracts that overpay (think Vernon Wells and Soriano) based on past production. Which is good for the long-term health of the organization. Then you build your nucleus by locking down consistent players for under market value, leading to an excess of money to fill out the roster with whatever you couldn't develop on the farm.

Basically I care about players' salaries because i think that getting better value out of current contracts leads to more wins and the potential to fill holes.

Sorry this was so basic and maybe even patronizing. I just think it's something that should be cared about and understood for everyone hoping for their team to get W's.

What players are paid is important on a year-to-year level, and I agree that it's important to how the team accumulates wins. On the other hand, how often have you heard about the contract terms of a player who has been retired long enough to be eligible for hall consideration, much less whether those contract terms were reasonable under the circumstances? Never? Heck, given salary inflation, the "exorbitant" amounts paid to some of the top free agents of even 15 to 20 years ago look pretty quaint. I doubt it becomes a consideration for hall voters.

But perhaps more importantly, let's consider what would happen if it were a consideration. Not only would the Yankees' free publicity put many more Yankees in the hall of fame than is warranted, but that fact that enormous contracts burden the Yankees less than the Twins would mean that any Twin with an enormous contract would be hobbled while any Yankee with the same contract would receive fair consideration. And God forbid you spent your career with the Rays (I'm looking at you, Mr. Longoria). It wouldn't be the Hall of Fame, it would be the Hall of Yankees (and now maybe Sox and Dodgers).

Contract terms should not be a consideration. Thankfully, I don't think they really are.

mike wants wins
12-20-2012, 11:42 AM
I would say he is close right now, but needs 2-3 more good years, and not to have 5 bad years that leave a bad memory in voters' minds. The recency effect has played havoc on a few candidates.

Brock Beauchamp
12-20-2012, 11:50 AM
I think Mauer is almost a lock at this point. Two more very good seasons and he's in unless he's caught in a dog-fighting ring or something along those lines. Writers will be falling over themselves to vote in a guy who exudes professionalism, is quiet and humble, and played for his hometown team his entire career. New age SABR guys will love his WAR and OBP while traditionalists will vote him in for his batting championships and Silver Slugger awards.

snepp
12-20-2012, 11:51 AM
The hair, don't forget the hair. Silky smooth....

Rosterman
12-20-2012, 12:19 PM
His value is as a catcher. He HAS to catcher a greater percentage of games. He can be another Yogi if he keeps his average up, wins another title or two...but he has to be recognized as one of the greater catchers. Right now, any play at DH at this stage (and the next 4-5 years) diminishes his chances. He can go in as a Twins icon if he plays beyond his current contract and gets those 20-years of same team service under his belt. Sorta the Ripken factor. But he could also fall into the Mattingly category. But it is always hard to ignore a lifetime .325 hitter with 15+ years of play.

Brock Beauchamp
12-20-2012, 12:46 PM
His value is as a catcher. He HAS to catcher a greater percentage of games. He can be another Yogi if he keeps his average up, wins another title or two...but he has to be recognized as one of the greater catchers. Right now, any play at DH at this stage (and the next 4-5 years) diminishes his chances. He can go in as a Twins icon if he plays beyond his current contract and gets those 20-years of same team service under his belt. Sorta the Ripken factor. But he could also fall into the Mattingly category. But it is always hard to ignore a lifetime .325 hitter with 15+ years of play.

The Mattingly comp makes sense on the surface but it's not a good comp when you drill down on the players. Mattingly had a career WAR of 45. Mauer isn't even 30 yet and his WAR is 40. Mattingly had one batting title and one MVP as a first baseman (the most power-laden position on the diamond). Mauer has three batting titles and one MVP as a catcher (the least power-laden position on the diamond).

If Mauer has two more seasons with a .320 average, .400 OBP, and plays 80 games behind the plate, he's in. He'll be close to a 50 WAR player at that point. If he catches more than 80 games (and I think he will, even JR has said as much), that WAR is even higher.

ashburyjohn
12-20-2012, 12:53 PM
For a lock? Mauer needs a few more All-Star seasons, and needs significant MVP votes in a few more seasons, and needs to rack up healthy career totals. Five more healthy years with three of them at an All-Star level, and we're talking lock. Something below that, but still decent longevity, and his chances remain good.

Brandon
12-20-2012, 01:45 PM
Looks like he'll end up catching 10k to 12k innings which if he can return too his gold glove defense that won't loose him votes. I do think a 4th batting title will really help his cause and because he is a catcher he won't be held to the same offensive standards as OF and 1B but he will be held to higher offensive standards. I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well. I also think Higher WAR totals and batting average totals will be what gets him in. (hense the comment about an extra batting title).

ashburyjohn
12-20-2012, 02:02 PM
I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well.

By the time Mauer is eligible for votes, Posey's career will already be in much clearer focus - who's to say Posey isn't a first-baseman by that time? A lot can happen.

DAM DC Twins Fans
12-20-2012, 02:58 PM
I can think of three scenarios, and in 2 of the 3 he makes the hall of fame.

Scenario #1 (most likely in my opinion): Mauer has another productive 5-10 years, no more MVPs or 1000+ OPS's like 2009, but quite a few years over .300, and maybe another batting title, evenutally changes positions. I think he's a hall-of-fame lock under this scenario.

Scenario #2: The wheels fall off.. for some reason or other, perhaps injury, his number revert to 2011 levels permanently. He makes it another 5 - 8 years, but isn't very good. I don't think he has quite enough to make the hall under this scenario, and fans are incensed at his contract.

Scenario #3: He has a tragic career ending injury ala Puckett. Like Puckett, I think he makes the hall of fame under this scenario. Yes, he doesn't quite have Puckett's slugging/power numbers, but he has a stretch of 9 years that is arguably the best 9-year offensive stretch for any catcher in history. I think voters would give him the benefit of the doubt that scenario #1 would have happened, and he gets in.

Great reply--the third scenario describes Campy to a "T"--I was a kid when Dodgers moved from Brooklyn and then Campy had his serious auto crash--and yes got in after a fairly short career (in comparison to other HOFers).

I do think that Mauer needs to have another 2 or 3 seasons at least at his 2012 level--with most of his ABs coming as catcher to make the HOF. If he doesnt produce another 300BA or a year with power numbers he will come up a little short...

Brock Beauchamp
12-20-2012, 03:06 PM
I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well.

Three years ago, you could have said the same thing about Brian McCann. Let's see if Posey can post more than one 4+ WAR season before suggesting that he's HoF-bound.

jmlease1
12-20-2012, 03:33 PM
I think Mauer needs to get over 10K innings at catcher and still be seen as at least a decent defensive catcher, along with at least 2000 hits. Another 4 seasons at 2010/2012 levels should get him in even if he has several additional years in decline and/or playing mostly 1B/DH/3B.

Hard to call him the best hitting catcher with Piazza out there, but a couple of additional seasons at Mauer's current pace and he's clearly at least #2, passing guys like Bench and Berra.

Joe's definitely on a HoF trajectory. I can't call him a lock; a lot of voters would probably have problems putting him in if his career ended at 9 seasons or so. But he's started getting close and I expect he'll make it. He'll get the high BA guys, the more modern OBP guys, he should have the WAR, the hardware (gold gloves, silver sluggers, the MVP, the batting titles) to make him a fairly easy choice the way he's going. If he leads the Twins back to the playoffs in the next 3-4 seasons while playing at a high level, he's got to be in, don't you think?

We are watching greatness. Occasionally frustrating greatness (razzin-frazzin' double plays!) but true greatness nonetheless.

savvyspy
12-20-2012, 03:46 PM
Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

diehardtwinsfan
12-20-2012, 03:48 PM
Mauer is a lock now. 3 batting titles, as a catcher, when no other catcher has more than 1. He's got an MVP, gold gloves, and silver sluggers. He's in. Period.

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 04:18 PM
Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

Wow.

Pius Jefferson
12-20-2012, 04:27 PM
One thing to keep in mind is when Mauer becomes eligible there's going to be more voters who don't just look a at the baseball card numbers. They are going to look at WAR and on-base to fully judge a players worth.

CDog
12-20-2012, 04:44 PM
Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

I mean if there was a 2009 Hall of Fame Mauer would be a lock but there are literally dozen and dozens of guys that are more deserving of the HOF than Mauer.

It's nice to know that I'm safe from posting the most ridiculous thing of the day.

Jerr
12-20-2012, 04:49 PM
I think Mauer is almost a lock at this point. Two more very good seasons and he's in unless he's caught in a dog-fighting ring or something along those lines. Writers will be falling over themselves to vote in a guy who exudes professionalism, is quiet and humble, and played for his hometown team his entire career. New age SABR guys will love his WAR and OBP while traditionalists will vote him in for his batting championships and Silver Slugger awards.

Agree and someone mentioned seeing him as a future Twins manager.... that would be sweeeet!!!

Jerr
12-20-2012, 04:52 PM
It's nice to know that I'm safe from posting the most ridiculous thing of the day.

Way safe:o

gunnarthor
12-20-2012, 05:13 PM
Come on!! Mauer won't have 200 HRs, 1,000 RBIs, or 100 SBs in his career. He has had ONE season where he hit more than 13 HRs or had more than 85 RBIs.

He's never won a playoff series and has exactly ONE postseason RBI. He's a great singles hitter that had ONE great season.

.

Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.

70charger
12-20-2012, 05:18 PM
Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.


Nice to have this kind of perspective.

70charger
12-20-2012, 05:21 PM
Also, Johnny Bench's career OPS+ was 126. And he's kinda the benchmark for catchers. (I know, terrible pun.)

Brock Beauchamp
12-20-2012, 05:25 PM
Those aren't the best things to look at. Mauer's OPS is very impressive. Without adjusting for ballparks, it's above guys like Dunn, Tulu, Cano, Beltran, HanRam, Rolen, Willingham and Morneau. When you take ballparks into account, his 135 OPS+ is the same as Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Todd Helton and above guys like Teixeira and Kemp. That's just his bat. No extra credit for doing it as a catcher.

And no accounting for his incredibly high OBP, which is more valuable than the slugging that most of those other guys use to get that OPS.

Monkeypaws
12-20-2012, 05:42 PM
Well, nobody else said it:

Tony Oliva - 3 batting crowns, health issues, Twin his entire career, no championships.

No Hall.

70charger
12-20-2012, 06:04 PM
Well, nobody else said it:

Tony Oliva - 3 batting crowns, health issues, Twin his entire career, no championships.

No Hall.

He was a right fielder, and he only had 8 effective seasons, after which injuries made him more or less average. Mauer's stats actually look pretty similar to Oliva's right up until his 1971 season. If Mauer has a few more of those types of seasons, he's a mortal lock. He might already be, because of the catcher advantage.

And of course, I think Tony Oliva should have gotten more consideration for the hall anyway. But I'm a homer, and I know it.

Monkeypaws
12-20-2012, 06:07 PM
Don't disagree. Still, the similarities are there.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 06:09 PM
He's in... He's Famous... Head and Shoulders are not going to pay him for endorsement unless they know who he is on the east coast.

Book it... Done deal....

jmlease1
12-20-2012, 06:27 PM
Well, nobody else said it:

Tony Oliva - 3 batting crowns, health issues, Twin his entire career, no championships.

No Hall.

Well, that's why some of us have said he might not be there yet. But a few more seasons and he gets there for sure.

every year he tacks on like last season he starts passing milestone questions like 1st ballot, inner-ring HoFer, Top 5 catcher all-time, best hitting catcher all-time, etc. I really believe that when Mauer's career is over we'll be talking about him as a once in a generation hitter and one of the best all-time at his position, a lock for the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

SpantheMan
12-21-2012, 01:15 AM
If he wins 2 more batting titles id say he gets in for sure ( assuming the titles are as an at least part time catcher)

Brock Beauchamp
12-21-2012, 06:24 AM
If he wins 2 more batting titles id say he gets in for sure ( assuming the titles are as an at least part time catcher)

If he wins one more he's in. How many guys have four batting titles?

kab21
12-21-2012, 10:11 AM
As long as Mauer's career doesn't spiral downward like Knoblauch's then he's a lock for the HOF. And then he's probably still in. It's better that he stays at C but I don't think it matters as long as he keeps hitting.

notoriousgod71
12-21-2012, 10:39 AM
FWIW, Bill James has Mauer's "HOF Score" at a 66, where 100 is a HOFer. I think the scores are somewhat low as he only has Miguel Cabrera at 96 and I would say he is a lock.

Baseball reference's top comps for Mauer by age is Victor Martinez.

The first name that came to mind for me was Bill Madlock, a guy with a bunch of batting titles but less than eye popping power and RBI numbers.

This is a dankind-ish thing to say but at this point in his career Mauer would be a very underwhelming HOF candidate in my opinion. None of his accumulative numbers will likely scream out HOF, it will be his slash numbers and "new" stats like WAR, OPS+, etc.

On the other hand there are a lot of what I would call mediocre players in the HOF already so if you want to compare Mauer to recent inductees Dawson and Blyleven I think he is a better player than them.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
12-21-2012, 11:23 AM
Mauer is a lock. The true debate where he will rank all-time. These guys are asking the right questions.


I think he's still out of the top 5 - Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Rodriguez, Piazza and Carter are all still above him. And don't underrate a guy like Campanella. Because of segregation, he didn't get to the majors until he was 26 and a fulltimer at 27. He played 10 years and won 3 MVPs. Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

Here's a scenario where Mauer could be one of the top catchers, all-time:

The Twins go 74-88 in 2013, and Morneau and Willingham are dealt just before the trade deadline for talent. Ron Gardenhire's contract is not renewed. Paul Molitor is named the new manager and introduces a hustling, up-tempo offense that jells with his young core of talented position players, bolstered by one more good draft.

Buxton and Hicks exceed Span and Revere as outfielders, and Rosario, Michael, and Santana solidify the middle infield, Sano's glove catches up to his bat and his arm at 3rd base, and Chris Hermann spells Mauer as a fine defensive catcher. Arcia, or a gloveless Sano becomes a memorable Twins designated hitter... (Who was the last memorable designated hitter?? A New but Old Problem: Who Is the Twins' Designated Hitter? - Twinkie Town (http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/12/15/2637994/a-new-but-old-problem-who-is-the-twins-designated-hitter) C'mon, we're due here!)

Mauer develops into a catcher/coach of promising young pitchers (a talent that he hasn't displayed, to me...), and Terry Ryan is named Sweet Genius for trading to get Alex Myer and Trevor May. (Gibson, Berrios, Bard, Hendricks, Diamond? Pick three and they round out a very solid rotation.) The bullpen doesn't crash, and Glen Perkins emerges as a top-five closer.

Mauer produces with a batting average that gradually decreases from .320 to .280 over the next six years. He stays healthy as the Twins go deep into the playoffs from 2015-2018, takes home some hardware. Six years of catching roughly 100 games a season takes its toll. Mauer retires when he's 35, and his contract expires after the 2018 season. He ends up coaching alongside his big brother, Jake, for many more years in the Twins organization.

This is not just wishful thinking. Stranger things have happened, we just don't believe in them. After all, we are Minnesotans.

ThePuck
12-21-2012, 11:29 AM
Only catcher to have three batting titles.
Only AL Catcher to win a batting title.
Only catcher to lead the majors in BA.
Only catcher to lead his league in BA/OBP/SLG in same year.
In '09 became the 1st player in the AL to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG since 1980.
One MVP.
Silver Slugger
Gold Gloves.

slash line of .323/.405/.468

Not even 30 yet.

and after all that, we're still wondering if he'll be a HOFer?

johnnydakota
12-21-2012, 11:36 AM
As long as injuries don't derail his career and he can stick at catcher at least half time over the next couple years he should be a first ballot guy. He is already one of the best 3 or 4 catchers of all time.

Unholy hershey squirts you and i finally agree on something, I have joe as a top 5 all time

Monkeypaws
12-21-2012, 03:29 PM
Only catcher to have three batting titles.
Only AL Catcher to win a batting title.
Only catcher to lead the majors in BA.
Only catcher to lead his league in BA/OBP/SLG in same year.
In '09 became the 1st player in the AL to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG since 1980.
One MVP.
Silver Slugger
Gold Gloves.

slash line of .323/.405/.468

Not even 30 yet.

and after all that, we're still wondering if he'll be a HOFer?

Nice!

Shane Wahl
12-21-2012, 03:39 PM
Only catcher to have three batting titles.
Only AL Catcher to win a batting title.
Only catcher to lead the majors in BA.
Only catcher to lead his league in BA/OBP/SLG in same year.
In '09 became the 1st player in the AL to lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG since 1980.
One MVP.
Silver Slugger
Gold Gloves.

slash line of .323/.405/.468

Not even 30 yet.

and after all that, we're still wondering if he'll be a HOFer?

Yeah. I am confused by the speculation. Only immediate career-ending injury threatens it.

Paul Pleiss
12-22-2012, 12:47 AM
I'm with Seth on this one, Mauer is already a lock for the hall. If he can continue to be a .300/.400/XXX hitter for the next few years, even if only half those games are behind the plate, he'll be a shoe-in when he finally hangs up his cleats.

Kobs
12-26-2012, 04:44 PM
I think he's got many of the "career highlights" to get in already, but he really needs to start adding to his totals to be a cinch. Hits especially.

ThePuck
12-26-2012, 04:54 PM
I think he's got many of the "career highlights" to get in already, but he really needs to start adding to his totals to be a cinch. Hits especially.

No catcher has as many as 2700 hits...

Only 8 catchers have 2000 or more hits...be shocked if he doesn't get there. 730 to go.

Thrylos
12-26-2012, 05:09 PM
Lock? Not yet. He probably needs at least 2-3 decent seasons and up to 5 more total seasons (play out his contact). Too early to tell - he just has 9 season under his belt. After their first 9 seasons, Juan Gone, Darryl Strawberry, and Doc Gooden were "locks" too.

Is Pudge a "lock"? is Piazza a "lock"? Is Pedro a lock? Is Bonds a lock? Those are more meaningful discussions.

I just have a hard time talking about HOF credentials of players in their prime. Give them time.

ThePuck
12-26-2012, 05:14 PM
Lock? Not yet. He probably needs at least 2-3 decent seasons and up to 5 more total seasons (play out his contact). Too early to tell - he just has 9 season under his belt. After their first 9 seasons, Juan Gone, Darryl Strawberry, and Doc Gooden were "locks" too.

Is Pudge a "lock"? is Piazza a "lock"? Is Pedro a lock? Is Bonds a lock? Those are more meaningful discussions.

I just have a hard time talking about HOF credentials of players in their prime. Give them time.

Pedro is a 100% lock...so is Piazza.

darin617
12-26-2012, 09:26 PM
Mauer is no lock at all to be a HOF. You want to factor in that he is putting up HOF numbers for a catcher, but he is no longer a full time catcher. So all stats he compiles me nothing if he keeps playing 1B.

By the way, I fully expect him to one day be a HOF. That would be the Twins Hall of Fame. Tony Oliva deserves to be in Cooperstown more than the Golden Boy Joe Mauer.

ThePuck
12-26-2012, 09:37 PM
Mauer is no lock at all to be a HOF. You want to factor in that he is putting up HOF numbers for a catcher, but he is no longer a full time catcher. So all stats he compiles me nothing if he keeps playing 1B.

By the way, I fully expect him to one day be a HOF. That would be the Twins Hall of Fame. Tony Oliva deserves to be in Cooperstown more than the Golden Boy Joe Mauer.

Except all the things he's done...as a catcher...as him being the ONLY catcher to EVER do, won't go away even if he's playing less catcher as his career goes on. BTW, it's Gardy who has him playing less catcher. Having Doumit there to fill in, Butera needing his playing time too, and with Morneau needing to play less at 1B due to doctor's recommendation, Mauer was the best choice to fill in.

But, by your post, you can tell you just dislike the guy...you really don't have much of an argument

Kobs
12-26-2012, 10:38 PM
No catcher has as many as 2700 hits...

Only 8 catchers have 2000 or more hits...be shocked if he doesn't get there. 730 to go.

That's all well and good, but he has 1,270 right now. 2,000 is another four very good seasons away.

Brock Beauchamp
12-27-2012, 07:25 AM
Is Pudge a "lock"? is Piazza a "lock"? Is Pedro a lock? Is Bonds a lock? Those are more meaningful discussions.

Every one of those guys should be first-balloters, though Bonds probably won't make it because the BBWAA is full of hypocrites.

ThePuck
12-27-2012, 08:07 AM
That's all well and good, but he has 1,270 right now. 2,000 is another four very good seasons away.

And he just turns 30 next year..and, yeah, he has 1,270 hits... that's why I wrote he was 730 hits away from 2000 :-)

jmlease1
12-29-2012, 12:01 PM
Mauer is no lock at all to be a HOF. You want to factor in that he is putting up HOF numbers for a catcher, but he is no longer a full time catcher. So all stats he compiles me nothing if he keeps playing 1B.

By the way, I fully expect him to one day be a HOF. That would be the Twins Hall of Fame. Tony Oliva deserves to be in Cooperstown more than the Golden Boy Joe Mauer.

He's still playing at least half the time at catcher, so I think he still counts as a catcher. And regardless, his stats count even if he'd DHing, just maybe not as much to some voters if he stops playing a significant defensive position.

Oliva was a terrific player and has a reasonable HoF case, but the injuries really costs him and the last 5 years of his career added very little to his case for the Hall. Oliva had an 8 year run where he was an elite hitter and was an all-star for all of them. But his case is based on the premise that his peak was high enough to to get him in absent real longevity, as the other 7 years of his career just don't help him.

Mauer, on the other hand, is already almost even with Oliva's career WAR, above him in OPS+ and looks to be able to add several more seasons of significant value. The only way Oliva is above as a player Mauer is if Mauer stops playing in May and ends his career.

ThePuck
12-29-2012, 10:59 PM
Did anyone read Gleeman's latest article on Mauer, dated Dec 28?

glunn
12-30-2012, 12:15 AM
Did anyone read Gleeman's latest article on Mauer, dated Dec 28?

I just read it and found it informative. Here (http://aarongleeman.com/)is a link.