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Nick Nelson
12-18-2012, 11:09 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1263-State-of-the-Starting-Corps

Lesser Dali
12-18-2012, 11:42 PM
Nice write up Nick.

Smoke and Mirrors. I have been a Twins fan for a quarter of a century. We got our stadium. We were told revenue would increase to stay in the fold of the upper echelon of baseball teams. Except for the opening season at Target Field, I have not seen much of anything.

Although the Twins signed Willingham and Doumit last off season, they were replacing players that received a lot more on the open market.

This years speculated rotation looks much worse than last years. I will not lie and say that I did not approve of the trades the Twins have made this offseason, but the signing of Correia was dumbfounding and barring a miracle signing - our SP staff is garbage. If it looks like a rebuild and smells like a rebuild... it must be a rebuild.

It would have been nice for GM Ryan to at least be honest with the fans. It seems like the new era of successful ballclubs signs billion dollar TV contracts. If that is indeed the case - we are screwed.

If Hicks win the CF job this upcoming season, I will watch Twins Baseball for the fun of seeing if a top prospect can cut it and impress, If not, I will spend my valuable time elsewhere. Thus far, we might as well have ignored the free agent market.

Rosterman
12-19-2012, 12:10 AM
I agree with what now seems to be smoke and mirrors. Correia and Pelfrey are just filler. At this point, say rebuild and move out Morneau and think about Mauer and send Willingham packing in mid-season. I would almost rather see a field of prospects than just place holders. Sure, I'll be mad at all the payroll savings going who knows where. I'll be upset that we have to sit thru two seasons at least before we get a glimmer of competitive hope.

Yeah, I did a quick run thru of free agent and thought the wins could sign Sizemore or Ginzalez and still find a hole for a Rauch/Hawkins, maybe Gonz or Myers or Padilla. ut then, why. Will we actually increase the chances by 5-10 wins over previous seasons? Better to let Hendriks take his licks, see if Hermsen can do anything, let Gibson get his experience. Let's run out Hicks and Benson. Hell, other teams do it. Start Buxton in left and let him swing and learn.

I am really curious to see what kind of excitement can be created by TwinsFest. Pay money to get an advance look at what? The down-on-the-farm guys will probably be more poluar than the other players (something that happened last year -- overpriced autographs).

Maybe 10,000 fans dropping season ticket plans will wake these guys up. They still get the coveted $25 million change next year from TV. But you don't sell hot dogs and beer and souvenirs to empty seats.

I want to find hope, but I can see an 0-10 start out of the central chute!

NoCal
12-19-2012, 12:10 AM
Pavano, Baker, Marquis, Liriano - last year's starters. Baker did not throw a pitch; Pavano was injured and done by June; Marquis was the worst starter in the AL prior to release; Liriano - inconsistent, no command, frustrating.
Honestly - even tho you hate Correia, the trio of him, Diamond, the guy from Philly, plus eventually Pelfrey and Gibson will be better than 2012, if healthy. Not great, but an upgrade. The Twins are not competitive, and they know it; they are rebuilding, and it takes time. Frustrating - yes. But managing frustration is part of building the team, and of being a fan.
It will be ok.

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 12:17 AM
The Twins rotation at the beginning of last year was completely alarmingly bad. I think people forget that sometimes. Correia may be bad, but he is not THAT bad. He is likely a 5th starter. The Twins didn't even start the season with a legitimate 4 starter last year. They were all bad, bad, bad. Starting the year with Diamond and Worley is in itself a big improvement. Also, DeVries and Deduno were much better than Marquis and Blackburn last year.

Don't get me wrong, I want the Twins to pay Shaun Marcum the money he wants to come pitch for the Twins. That one move could significantly alter things chain-reaction style.

Also, starting Kyle Gibson in the rotation for the Twins would be stupid. He should be on an innings limit in Rochester until June 1st. I would think, right now, that Pelfrey/Deduno/DeVries would hold down that spot in the rotation until Gibson is June-ready to go 5-6 innings. Until then, I would really throw Gibson 3 innings a game in Rochester and have Andrew Albers (lefty) be his personal reliever. This would keep Gibson at 30 innings and then he would have 100-110 for the Twins.

The only reasonable rotation, barring any other additions, is Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Correia, Pelfrey/Deduno/DeVries. This group is marginally better than the 2012 group as a whole and much better than the April-May rotation.

beckmt
12-19-2012, 12:27 AM
Twins may still not be done adding pitchers. Worley alone makes this a better group. Gibson should also help by the end of May. Correia and Pelfrey will hold down spots waiting for the kids. Maybe one of last years starting staff will be able to help. This group should be better, much better not at the start, but by midyear quite possibly.

Top Gun
12-19-2012, 12:32 AM
Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.
It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed!

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 12:40 AM
Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.
It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed!'

While I think ownership is a greedy bunch, just like all billionaires (obviously) it is clear that Terry Ryan isn't that type. He has already improved the team. Absent the Correia signing, the Pelfrey addition is not a terrible idea. Looking back on this whole approach, I would have liked to take the Span money and moved that for Marcum and then signed Jurrjens. Marcum and Jurrjens, with the addition of Worley would have made me fully happy.

Are you drunk?

Top Gun
12-19-2012, 12:52 AM
I wish I was! I don't see a Twins SP capable of winning 10 games. Marcum might be but we don't have him, and doubtful we ever will.

glunn
12-19-2012, 01:24 AM
Deduno has electric stuff -- if he could develop more control he could be awesome.

Hendriks is solid -- if he could develop an "out" pitch, he could be very good.

If I were the Twins, I would give each of them extra coaching in the hope that they can overcome their weaknesses and maximize their strengths.

This is likely to be a disaster of a season, but if Deduno could develop more control or Hendriks could develop an out pitch, then they could become valuable assets going forward. And it is at least theoretically possible that Blackburn could get back to his best form.

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 01:34 AM
Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are likely both 13-win pitchers. Even Correia could be 10-14 this year.

Come on.

Top Gun
12-19-2012, 01:46 AM
It's not only the SP, it's the offense, the speed, the runs,. the defense. We lost Denard, Ben and Alexi and haven't replace any of them. It's nice to have prospects, but prospects take time are not a reliable answer in the shot-term. I have fallow the Twins since 1961, every game and it's got to be the worst team ever.

mako83
12-19-2012, 02:54 AM
Still nine weeks til spring training be hopeful. But if these pitchers were 11 wins and 4.75 era would be better than last year.

stringer bell
12-19-2012, 05:28 AM
While this year's rotation doesn't look wonderful, it looks to be competent, if healthy. Last year's rotation had little health (Pavano pitched hurt for a couple months, Baker didn't pitch at all, Blackburn was disabled and pitched with an injury) as well as limited upside. If Baker, Liriano and Pavano had pitched to expectation, the Twins would have won a lot more games.

Teddy
12-19-2012, 06:38 AM
It's not only the SP, it's the offense, the speed, the runs,. the defense. We lost Denard, Ben and Alexi and haven't replace any of them. It's nice to have prospects, but prospects take time are not a reliable answer in the shot-term. I have fallow the Twins since 1961, every game and it's got to be the worst team ever.

With all due respect, I have to call BULLS**T on this one. If you followed the Twins since 1961, you would know that teams in the early 80's and mid-90's were far worse than this one. This team actually could be pretty solid with some decent starting pitching. The offseason isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, and the OF situation isn't as dire as you think. I expect that they'll pick up a solid veteran or two late in the offseason (once jobs begin to become scarce) that will shore up some of the weaknesses. However, to say this is the worst team ever is total hyperbole. There are no Scott Stahoviaks, Rich Beckers or Frankie Rodriguezes on this list (outside of Correia maybe - I don't see the upside in that signing).

Fire Dan Gladden
12-19-2012, 06:44 AM
The Correia signing is indefensible. Outside of Blackburn, Correia has arguably been the worst qualifying starer in MLB over the last 3 years. The numbers support this (Gleeman goes in depth on this in his last podcast).

That being said, the rotation in it's current form is better than last year. Worley and Pelfrey are upgrades over... well, everybody but Diamond. Gibson and Hendricks will be given every opportunity.

If this truly is a rebuilding year, why would TR spend any reasonable money on anything? None of the available remaining FA pitchers would be with the Twins 3 years from now. Why waste the money?

Also, are we really complaining about the roster right now? We still have what, 10 weeks before the start of Spring Training? Chill out people.

peterb18
12-19-2012, 07:04 AM
[QUOTE=Top Gun;72315]Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.
It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed![/QUOTEve

The empty promises and lies are the hardest take. Especially after the new stadium! The organization has enough assets to be competitive until the youngsters arrive. However, I do think that this is mainly a Pohlad issue. If they wanted a winning team, there would be one on the field. Must never forget that the family attempted to move the team and, also , attempted, or approved of contraction. My problem is I that enjoy all aspects of baseball--not much to look forward to!!

NoCryingInBaseball
12-19-2012, 07:57 AM
I was trying to remember what the starting rotation was at the beginning of 2012 and I was having difficulty. That’s probably because the Twins began the year in a state of turmoil (which seemed to never end). As NoCal offered, Baker was gone by opening day with Tommy John and Marquis was late because of the bicycle accident to his daughter. So the rotation started with a Waiting for Godot…I mean Marquis, type of rotation that was rounded out with Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn. The four pitchers they did start also included Liam Hendricks’s first audition (which he failed miserably), I think the Liam Hendriks that returned at the very end of the season was a different pitcher than his initial starts.

I am in agreement with everyone that Correia doesn’t seem to add anything to the pitching rotation, but Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Liam Hendriks Part II are much better than opening day 2012. Hopefully Gibson is limited innings in Triple A and lets Correia watch baseball from the bullpen in June. Better yet…sign Sean Marcum now!

old nurse
12-19-2012, 08:11 AM
I wish I was! I don't see a Twins SP capable of winning 10 games. Marcum might be but we don't have him, and doubtful we ever will.

What free agent pitcher out there has consistently won more than a dozen games per year? What are you expecting a team devoid of tradeable talent to do? Are you even aware that Pelfey pre injury won 15 games for a bad Mets team, Correia at least pitched .500 and 10+ wins on some very bad teams. Diamond won 12 games last year. Based on past performances , what are you basing your claim on? That the rest of the team is less talented?

nicksaviking
12-19-2012, 08:29 AM
On paper, last year's rotation at this time was far superior. We didn't know Baker and Pavano would have arm issues and we liked to think that Liriano was going to perform well as he usually did in even numbered years. Last year we were complaining because the Twins wasted money on Jason Marquis as the FIFTH starter. This year we are complaining because the Twins signed Kevin Correia, an equally poor pitcher, to be the THIRD starter.

It wasn't until April that it became clear that the rotation was a mess. There is still plenty of time for Worley to go under the knife and for Diamond to drastically regress.

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 08:51 AM
On paper, last year's rotation at this time was far superior. We didn't know Baker and Pavano would have arm issues and we liked to think that Liriano was going to perform well as he usually did in even numbered years. Last year we were complaining because the Twins wasted money on Jason Marquis as the FIFTH starter. This year we are complaining because the Twins signed Kevin Correia, an equally poor pitcher, to be the THIRD starter.

It wasn't until April that it became clear that the rotation was a mess. There is still plenty of time for Worley to go under the knife and for Diamond to drastically regress.

Due respect, that's not altogether true. There were many, many of us who were upset with the lack of attention Terry Ryan paid to the rotation last year at this time. Pretty much every "offseason blueprint" included upgrades in the rotation. Then the Twins publicly announced that they were cutting payroll 10% and we all knew that meant we could forget about improving the rotation. The "big FA signing" at this point a year ago was re-signing Pavano and while we didn't "know" he would have arm issues, it certainly couldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

While Ryan did a nice job of replacing Kubel and Cuddyer adequately and for less money, he did fail to address the need to improve the rotation a year ago and there was no shortage of people pointing that out. By slashing payroll a year ago, he left the rotation situation in a position where everything had to break right to get even adequate starting pitching. Obviously, things did not break right. The result was predictable and now the rotation hole Ryan has to dig out of is only deeper... and still he's unable or unwilling to even pick up a shovel.

USAFChief
12-19-2012, 08:59 AM
On paper, last year's rotation at this time was far superior. We didn't know Baker and Pavano would have arm issues and we liked to think that Liriano was going to perform well as he usually did in even numbered years. Last year we were complaining because the Twins wasted money on Jason Marquis as the FIFTH starter. This year we are complaining because the Twins signed Kevin Correia, an equally poor pitcher, to be the THIRD starter.

It wasn't until April that it became clear that the rotation was a mess. There is still plenty of time for Worley to go under the knife and for Diamond to drastically regress.

Agree. The Twins rotation looked a lot better last winter than it does today.

It seems a bit, uh, optimistic to be pointing out the injuries to last years rotation while simultaneously saying one pitcher 11 months removed from TJS and another coming off late season elbow surgery are locks to improve this years team.

nokomismod
12-19-2012, 08:59 AM
I don't think the Pohlads are cheap anymore. I think Ryan is just trying to prove to everyone that he can get the most out of a $. I like the trades, but not the FA pitching adds. I just want to see TR sign at least one decent FA pitcher. Why throw $4 or $5 mil at bottom of the rotation guys when we have a ton of guys that are already under team control to fill that 5 spot? Instead sign one or two quality guys (between $10-$15 mil per year).

ThePuck
12-19-2012, 09:03 AM
On paper, last year's rotation at this time was far superior. We didn't know Baker and Pavano would have arm issues and we liked to think that Liriano was going to perform well as he usually did in even numbered years. Last year we were complaining because the Twins wasted money on Jason Marquis as the FIFTH starter. This year we are complaining because the Twins signed Kevin Correia, an equally poor pitcher, to be the THIRD starter.

It wasn't until April that it became clear that the rotation was a mess. There is still plenty of time for Worley to go under the knife and for Diamond to drastically regress.

Are you kidding? Who thought our rotation was anything but junk going into the 2012 season? We had the 26th ranked rotation in the majors in 2011 and added Marquis. It was a disaster way before April

PopRiveter
12-19-2012, 09:04 AM
Nice write up Nick.

Smoke and Mirrors. I have been a Twins fan for a quarter of a century. We got our stadium. We were told revenue would increase to stay in the fold of the upper echelon of baseball teams. Except for the opening season at Target Field, I have not seen much of anything.


What you heard was not what was said. The team representatives pushed hard for a stadium with the message that they couldn't currently afford to retain their best players and they didn't project to be able to stay competitive in the future. The future is here. The Target Field revenue afforded them the ability to retain Mauer and Morneau on a contracts that wouldn't have happened if they were still in the 'Dome and it gave them the ability to replace Kubel and Cuddyer with comparable free agents. Pavano got signed for more than he was worth. Cuddyer's $10.5million option was picked up for 2011. The team was able to be proactive by signing Span and Blackburn to longer contracts than they might have with 'Dome money. You can make great arguments about the wisdom of their spending, but they have spent when they thought it was advantageous.

Some fans seem to forget that much of the new stadium money ($264 million of it) was committed to Mauer and Morneau before the stadium arrived. That is the level of commitment that was promised. If you want to imagine they planned to spend in the "Upper echelon," feel free to imagine that and continue to be disappointed.

At this point, the team needs to make smart moves, not spend for the sake of spending. The Corriea signing looks to me like spending for the sake spending. Right now, no one is getting a starting pitcher for a bargain on the free agent market. Wasting money will compound the problem and you can't just spend your way out of a bad spot in this market.

My hope as a fan is to see some young players take steps forward. A good year from Hendriks and a good 1/2 year from Gibson could have a very positive impact. If Diamond can avoid a dramatic regression and a couple of the AAAA names are able to contribute again, I'll have more faith in them. Deduno strikes me as a legitimate x-factor. His knuckleball-of-a-fastball is an exciting pitch. I'm not saying there's a good chance he has RA Dickey success in his future, but I'm saying I still want to watch the game when he's pitching. Which name that isn't on our radar will surprise us? Nobody thought Scott Diamond had any chance of emerging like he did last year.

The arms in the minors will be interesting too. The team hasn't had many high-quality arms on the way in recent years to keep an eye on. Maybe Wimmers-in-2013 will look a little like Gibson-in-2012. Maybe Meyer and May and Berrios will dominate and climb the ladder fast. Maybe no one will undergo Tommy John! Maybe I'm dreaming. Probably.

USAFChief
12-19-2012, 09:05 AM
Due respect Jim, but Pavano wasn't "the big FA signing" at this point a year ago.

mike wants wins
12-19-2012, 09:17 AM
Does not look pretty right now. You tend to get what you pay for.

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 09:18 AM
You're correct, Chief. I stand corrected... it was a year earlier that the Twins re-signed Pavano. I guess there were NO rotation FAs signed at this point last year.

mike wants wins
12-19-2012, 09:20 AM
I would rather Hendriks was in the majors all year, to see what he is or is not.

USAFChief
12-19-2012, 09:28 AM
Are you kidding? Who thought our rotation was anything but junk going into the 2012 season? We had the 26th ranked rotation in the majors in 2011 and added Marquis. It was a disaster way before April

Nobody thought the Twins rotation in Dec 2011 was very good.

That is not the same thing as saying the potential Twins rotation in Dec 2011 looked better than the potential Twins rotation in Dec 2012.

Badsmerf
12-19-2012, 09:30 AM
Going into last season the rotation looked ok, but when your two best starters don't pitch the whole year its going to be a tough year. Add in the ineffectiveness of Blackburn and Liriano and its not surprising the team struggled. The rotation to start the year is clearly better, even with Correia. Correia, despite his inadequacies, is a known commodity. He will be below average. The other options the Twins have (which pitched way too many of the innings last season) are terrible. This team will be better than last year and wont lose 90 games again. I see them being a little under 500. The pessimism on this site right now is alarming.

old nurse
12-19-2012, 09:45 AM
You're correct, Chief. I stand corrected... it was a year earlier that the Twins re-signed Pavano. I guess there were NO rotation FAs signed at this point last year.

They perused Buerhle for 2012. What other free agent that was obtainable (ie no Cliff Lee) would have you gone for and what was their 2012 result?

ThePuck
12-19-2012, 09:51 AM
Nobody thought the Twins rotation in Dec 2011 was very good.

That is not the same thing as saying the potential Twins rotation in Dec 2011 looked better than the potential Twins rotation in Dec 2012.

His words were 'far superior', not 'looked better'.

SgtSchmidt11
12-19-2012, 10:00 AM
@ Top Gun. Even if Joe Benson is a total flop offensively, the guy has a great glove. Hicks will take over CF at some point (hopefully succeed) and Arcia will be in RF by the time we trade either Morneau or Willingham (remember the Beltran trade? I think the Twins could get that for either come deadline if they are hot). Defensively the outfield will look better by the trade deadline. Honestly I want to see Benson starting in CF as a do or die type test. He's become irrelevant quickly but should be given a chance in the six weeks it will take to bring up Hicks (for the extra year of TC).

nicksaviking
12-19-2012, 10:05 AM
Are you kidding? Who thought our rotation was anything but junk going into the 2012 season? We had the 26th ranked rotation in the majors in 2011 and added Marquis. It was a disaster way before April

No one liked the rotation heading into last year, never did I say the 2012 rotation at this point was a quality one. I simply said it was superior to the one we see now.

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 10:07 AM
Why is the "on paper" discussion even happening? Last year occurred and we can predict how this rotation compares to what actually happened last year. Even if Diamond regresses some (hard to imagine a "dramatic" regression), a full season of him is going to be better than last year. Some people are really under-valuing Worley, who is similar to Scott Baker. Hendriks is bound to be significantly improved as well. After that, it is pretty cloudy yes, but I think they actually have 5th starters now. That was not true for two months last year.

nicksaviking
12-19-2012, 10:09 AM
His words were 'far superior', not 'looked better'.

Right, which part of that is incorrect? Chris Herrmann is far superior of Drew Buetera, it still doesn't mean he's any good.

JB_Iowa
12-19-2012, 10:17 AM
What I see are a number of posters trying to convince us (and possibly themselves) that this rotation won't be "that bad". Well, guess what? Before the Baker need for TJ surgery last year, many people thought that rotation wouldn't be "that bad" -- there were even some who predicted that the improvements to the Twins hitting might be good enough to put them in the playoffs (MLB Predictions 2012: Why the Minnesota Twins Can Make the Playoffs | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1126574-mlb-predictions-2012-why-the-minnesota-twins-can-make-the-playoffs))

Well, I'm not going to drink the Kool-Aid again. Sure, there's a possibility that this rotation will be better than last year (and heaven knows, given how many minor leaguers the Twins had to bring up to start last season, it SHOULD be better) but even if it is better, how MUCH better?

Enough to account for the losses of Span and Revere? I have no problem with those trades -- I'm in favor of a complete rebuild -- but HOW does ANYTHING that Ryan did this off-season with a fair amount of money available to him significantly improve this team for 2013 OR for the future.

His purchases in the free agent market aren't likely to be anything that can be turned into something better in the future nor do they do much for this year. AND he has seemingly left a pool of money on the table (at least thus far) that might have allowed him to purchase something better (even if it was a position player or two rather than a pitcher).

Terry Ryan did okay with the trades but his penurious ways in the free agent market continue to be frustrating. This team may talk about the 50+% rule when they are using it as a "cap" -- but c'mon Mr. St. Peter, let's hear you talking about it now that Mr. Ryan seems to be ignoring it when putting in a floor. He still has several weeks to redeem himself but as of right now, Mr. Ryan gets a great big D or F when it comes to free agent acquisitions.

Big City
12-19-2012, 10:35 AM
The pessimism on this site right now is alarming.

Agreed, and it's articles like this that unnecessarily spurn negativity. The writer failed to mention that TR was quoted to still be looking to add starting pitching and the writer also tried to compare the current rotation to last year’s opening day rotation as if currently we're worse off. Oh wait, he listed Scott Baker but Bake was destined for Tommy John surgery before opening day. This article could have more easily been written looking at things glass half-full and would have been closer to the truth. TR will sign another starting pitcher, he's already added 3 new starting pitchers to the current rotation, and he's added 2 top of the rotation prospects without trading away the middle of our lineup. I'd say the state of the pitching rotation looks pretty darn good considering it's only December 19th.

Rosterman
12-19-2012, 10:41 AM
You hope your rotation (top four pitchers) can get you 50 wins at least. Ideal would be 65-70 from all five! That means they pitch into at least the 6th holding a lead.

jmlease1
12-19-2012, 10:42 AM
Baker & Liriano are more talented than any of the new 4 pitchers, save Gibson perhaps. But injuries and inconsistency made them bad options last season. As correctly noted, Baker didn't throw a single regular season pitch last year. Marquis was abysmal. Pavano was declining, injured, and terrible. Liriano was inconsistent and overall bad.

If Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey are all healthy throughout the season the performance of the pitching staff will probably improve. Correia's my least favorite signing of the off-season, and even he should put up better numbers than the combination of Nick Blackburn/Carl Pavano did last season in 30 starts. Worley should give the team better numbers than the combo platter of Liriano/Walters over 33 starts. Pelfrey could do better than the 27 starts we got from Hedriks/Duensing and shouldn't do worse.

The problem is, we're talking about marginal improvements. I actually have pretty high hopes for Gibson, but I also expect his innings to be limited and lessen his impact this season. But getting the starting pitching from abysmal to competent could have a pretty big impact. If the new starters can get through the early innings without putting the team in a big hole, maybe that's a big enough step up to show improvement. The bullpen should still be very solid, especially with Duensing there and not messing around with him as a starter.

The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 10:50 AM
Freddy Garcia is next.

ThePuck
12-19-2012, 10:52 AM
Right, which part of that is incorrect? Chris Herrmann is far superior of Drew Buetera, it still doesn't mean he's any good.

I don't see how looking at the rotation we had in Dec 2011 is FAR SUPERIOR to the rotation we're looking at now is what I'm saying. Obviously others disagree.

ThePuck
12-19-2012, 10:54 AM
You hope your rotation (top four pitchers) can get you 50 wins at least. Ideal would be 65-70 from all five! That means they pitch into at least the 6th holding a lead.

Only need to go 5 inngs to be pitcher of record...no need to go into the 6th inning to get a win

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 10:56 AM
Freddy Garcia apparently choosing between Reds (as long-reliever), Rockies, and Twins. Let's see: if Garcia wants to make any money beyond 2013, he certainly won't take his flyball-inducing "skill" to Colorado. Competing might draw him to Cincinnati. Otherwise, methinks he's a twin. Insert Shaun Marcum instead of Kevin Corriea, and I wouldn't have minded adding Pelfrey and Garcia.

diehardtwinsfan
12-19-2012, 10:57 AM
The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

The problem I see is that we weren't counting on them to fill spots last year either (Sans Blackburn), but at one point, they were what we had. Personally I'm fairly excited about Deduno and I'm wondering if this could be our RA Dickey type pickup, but there's a pretty sizable likelihood there that it won't be anything of that nature. We have two TJ question marks in the system, though I fully expect Gibson to either start in AAA or get delayed this spring. Pelfrey, on the other hand, is a one year rental, so I doubt there will be much for innings limits and what not. Worley isn't exactly injury free, though his was pretty minor. That's a lot of question marks to go with Correia, who won't be very effective, and Diamond, who is a prime candidate to regress... Perhaps Diamond can comp out more like another leftie that people around here covet (Buehrle), but that's a tight line to walk and highly unlikely.

beehles
12-19-2012, 11:01 AM
It is pretty sad they've gathered so much more salary cap capability and put it toward guys like Corriea. I understand not wanting to overpay for a player but come on. Let's give the fans a glimmer of hope. I've been anxiously checking every day this free agency in hopes of making a great aquisition that can help the team now and have been utterly disappointed. I love the trades and the look of the future, but what about now!? Come on man!

nicksaviking
12-19-2012, 11:11 AM
Freddy Garcia is next.

If this goes down, the Twins will have signed two pitchers who were banished to the bullpen last year. I guess it's like Ryan said though, it's about quantity this year, I just wish it was a tiny bit about quality.

With no sarcasm intended, hopefully the Twins are able to do something special with three consecutive top five draft picks. The future is bright, it just seems unneccessary to make the present so abysmal in the process.

cmathewson
12-19-2012, 11:11 AM
Durability needs to be part of the equation. Baker gave the Twins 0 innings last year. Pavano gutted out 63 ugly innings while injured. Liriano was healthy but wild. I would take Worely in a heartbeat over Liriano. I would take Pelfrey over Baker. And I would take Corriea over Pavano. And that does not count the guys who are waiting for opportunities, such as Gibson, who were not even an option last year.

I'm not saying it's a good staff by any stretch. But it's much better than the staff we started the year with last year, which could not get much worse.

jokin
12-19-2012, 11:50 AM
Going into last season the rotation looked ok, but when your two best starters don't pitch the whole year its going to be a tough year. Add in the ineffectiveness of Blackburn and Liriano and its not surprising the team struggled. The rotation to start the year is clearly better, even with Correia. Correia, despite his inadequacies, is a known commodity. He will be below average. The other options the Twins have (which pitched way too many of the innings last season) are terrible. This team will be better than last year and wont lose 90 games again. I see them being a little under 500. The pessimism on this site right now is alarming.

Uh, the Twins had numerous options who pitched "below average" last year who were playing for the minimum, as a group, they are only marginally worse than Correia, and guys like Hendriks, and even Deduno, have significantly more upside than Correia to be significantly improved in 2013 over their 2012 numbers. I would also remonstrate through past stats and projections that Deunsing, and even possibly Cole DeVries, brought more value to their pitching staff than Correia did in 2012 and have a chance to contribute at a level at least at what Correia offers in 2013 for only 10% on the dollar.

Nick Nelson
12-19-2012, 11:50 AM
At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

jokin
12-19-2012, 12:03 PM
Baker & Liriano are more talented than any of the new 4 pitchers, save Gibson perhaps. But injuries and inconsistency made them bad options last season. As correctly noted, Baker didn't throw a single regular season pitch last year. Marquis was abysmal. Pavano was declining, injured, and terrible. Liriano was inconsistent and overall bad.

If Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey are all healthy throughout the season the performance of the pitching staff will probably improve. Correia's my least favorite signing of the off-season, and even he should put up better numbers than the combination of Nick Blackburn/Carl Pavano did last season in 30 starts. Worley should give the team better numbers than the combo platter of Liriano/Walters over 33 starts. Pelfrey could do better than the 27 starts we got from Hedriks/Duensing and shouldn't do worse.

The problem is, we're talking about marginal improvements. I actually have pretty high hopes for Gibson, but I also expect his innings to be limited and lessen his impact this season. But getting the starting pitching from abysmal to competent could have a pretty big impact. If the new starters can get through the early innings without putting the team in a big hole, maybe that's a big enough step up to show improvement. The bullpen should still be very solid, especially with Duensing there and not messing around with him as a starter.

The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

How much marginal improvement are you really getting for your $10M commitment?

Correia (NL Numbers) IP-171...K/9-4.68...BB/9-2.42...FIP-4.43...WAR-0.9

DeVries (AL Numbers) IP-87...K/9-5.95...BB/9-1.85...FIP-4.90...WAR-0.4

Deunsing (AL Numbers) IP-109...K/9-5.70...BB/9-2.23...FIP-3.82...WAR-1.3

Hendriks (AL Numbers) IP-85 (+106AAA)...K/9-5.27...BB/9-2.74...FIP-5.57...WAR--0.2 (AAA): IP-106...K/9-6.94...BB/9-2.37...ERA-2.20

jokin
12-19-2012, 12:11 PM
At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

If anything, the level of uncertainty has been significantly raised over last season- and signing Freddy Garcia would only raise the certainty of one more guy on the staff at or near the top of the gopher ball leader board. (Freddy's #s were around the top 5 for both HR/9 and HR/FB).

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 12:13 PM
$5.5 million to Blackburn, $4.5 million to Correia, $4 million to Pelfrey, and let's say $3 million to Garcia. That's $17 million towards, um, bad. Last year it was $25 million or so to very bad. And people will still contend that Mauer's contract is the problem.

jokin
12-19-2012, 12:17 PM
If this goes down, the Twins will have signed two pitchers who were banished to the bullpen last year. I guess it's like Ryan said though, it's about quantity this year, I just wish it was a tiny bit about quality.

With no sarcasm intended, hopefully the Twins are able to do something special with three consecutive top five draft picks. The future is bright, it just seems unneccessary to make the present so abysmal in the process.

Hopefully, with the warming up to Boras, Appel is their prime target in the draft in 2013. I ask again, who has the names of the top 3 projected picks in 2014?, 'cause that's where the Twins are likely to slot. 2 major league-ready draftable SPs on the 40-man roster going into 2015 is about the best thing to be hopefully optimistic about.

old nurse
12-19-2012, 12:17 PM
Uh, the Twins had numerous options who pitched "below average" last year who were playing for the minimum, as a group, they are only marginally worse than Correia, and guys like Hendriks, and even Deduno, have significantly more upside than Correia to be significantly improved in 2013 over their 2012 numbers. I would also remonstrate through past stats and projections that Deunsing, and even possibly Cole DeVries, brought more value to their pitching staff than Correia did in 2012 and have a chance to contribute at a level at least at what Correia offers in 2013 for only 10% on the dollar.

What possible upside does Duensing, Deduno or DeVries have? Last year was an extended enough period of time each showed what they could do as a starter. Duensing was put back in the bullpen, Deduno regressed as the season wore on. DeVries does a workman like effort but appears to be a 5 inning 6th starter.

jokin
12-19-2012, 12:22 PM
$5.5 million to Blackburn, $4.5 million to Correia, $4 million to Pelfrey, and let's say $3 million to Garcia. That's $17 million towards, um, bad. Last year it was $25 million or so to very bad. And people will still contend that Mauer's contract is the problem.

Cmon, there's at least some evidence in the Twins reluctance to spend that there is at least a minor causal link in the Twins not wanting to spend what it takes based on the commitment and resulting circumstances to Mauer. I still think the Twins are still in psychological recovery of the Gobsmacking they got from Mauer's disastrous season and all the other injuries they incurred in 2011, which carried over to the high-dollar SPs in 2012.

jokin
12-19-2012, 12:31 PM
What possible upside does Duensing, Deduno or DeVries have? Last year was an extended enough period of time each showed what they could do as a starter. Duensing was put back in the bullpen, Deduno regressed as the season wore on. DeVries does a workman like effort but appears to be a 5 inning 6th starter.

Correia 171 IP in 32 Games Played. That works out to 5.34 innings per appearance. At an average salary of $5M, that's $156,250/gm played. DeVries averaged 5.12 innings per appearance and he obviously makes less than 1/10 of Correia for similar numbers (3 Correia games pitched=DeVries entire season salary).

For the record, if you carefully read my post, I made no mention of "upside" for Duensing or DeVries.

On the other hand, I don't think anyone argues that Hendriks can't be a lot better than Correia, and Deduno has the electric stuff that Correia could only dream about, not saying he will ever get there, but at least his Dominican performance and occasional strong start last year suggests he could catch lightining in a bottle for a couple of years- all for the League Minimum.

I am mostly arguing the economics of this signing and I don't see how this was money well spent.

rickyriolo
12-19-2012, 12:31 PM
posed this question yesterday to David Schoenfield of ESPN on yesterday's chat: Are the Twins finished dealing after trading Span,Revere and signing Correia & Pelfrey? Will they finish dead last again in the AL? Schoenfield's response: Shaping up to be quite a race between the Indians and Twins. Correria , Pelfrey Worley.....doesn't inspire much confidence

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 12:32 PM
Freddy Friggin Garcia? Seriously?

Is it possible to astonished and yet not surprised much at all?

It has become obvious that Ryan decided to spend his money on 3-4 crappy options at $3-5 million a piece, rather than 2 legitimate Major League pitchers at $10+ million each. Could be a complete overreaction to the injuries last year but nobody should be at all surprised if the results are 100+ losses. And the most frustrating thing is that it didn't have to happen. The money is... or should be... available to have significantly improved the top of the rotation, not just add a few guys who might arguably be better #5 starters than the 2012 crew.

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 12:35 PM
posed this question yesterday to David Schoenfield of ESPN on yesterday's chat: Are the Twins finished dealing after trading Span,Revere and signing Correia & Pelfrey? Will they finish dead last again in the AL? Schoenfield's response: Shaping up to be quite a race between the Indians and Twins. Correria , Pelfrey Worley.....doesn't inspire much confidence

I caught the Joe Posnanski live chat yesterday, too. He was asked by one desperate Twins fan to say at least one positive thing he liked about the Twins. His answer is that he likes the interlocking TC on their caps, beyond that there's nothing. I reluctantly have to agree. Barring an unexpected addition to the top of the Twins rotation, rather than more possible #5s, I can't see any reason to spend money to watch the 2013 Twins.

Winston Smith
12-19-2012, 12:38 PM
How dare anyone be negative after 195 loses the last 2 years. I'm appalled!

Merry Christmas!!

johnnydakota
12-19-2012, 01:05 PM
Are you kidding? Who thought our rotation was anything but junk going into the 2012 season? We had the 26th ranked rotation in the majors in 2011 and added Marquis. It was a disaster way before April

I remember several who questioned Jason Marquis signing , pointing out his career era was as bad as the 2011 starters were and he was not an upgrade , but a bottom feeding signing...
I also must point out , i said once Terry Ryan was done adding to the 2013 team , we may wish we had Marquis back...

MrHockey
12-19-2012, 01:54 PM
Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.
It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed!

Terry Ryan has been at this what 12 months since Bill Smith crashed and burned? Rebuilding is hard to do especially when your general manager failed to select pitchers with the high draft picks in successive years. Most folks in the know opine that the Twins are in rebuilding mode and the pitchers that have been signed are fillers until 2015 when it is hoped that the group which includes Sano, Buxton, Meyer and others emerge. Let's not forget how ugly the 90's were. It seems that only the Dodgers and Yankees can buy their way into contention.

mike wants wins
12-19-2012, 02:30 PM
Dan S, who does zips, just joked that whenever he tries to project the twins pitching, he gets a blue screen of death....

LoganJones
12-19-2012, 03:28 PM
With all the guys who are on the recovery trail this year, why not investigate a 6-man rotation, at least for the first half? It works out to 27 starts for each slot. And, not surprisingly if each guy pitches 6 innings per start, 162 Innings from each starter. You could let guys without health concerns like Diamond and Correia go an extra inning when they're pitching well, and they'll easily get right up to near 200 innings.

70charger
12-19-2012, 03:44 PM
With all the guys who are on the recovery trail this year, why not investigate a 6-man rotation, at least for the first half? It works out to 27 starts for each slot. And, not surprisingly if each guy pitches 6 innings per start, 162 Innings from each starter. You could let guys without health concerns like Diamond and Correia go an extra inning when they're pitching well, and they'll easily get right up to near 200 innings.

If we're planning on pitching Gibson from day 1 and limiting his innings, it might not be a bad idea. It might also have the added benefit of ensuring that someone with upside like Hendriks isn't languishing in the minors so that somebody equally crappy buy on a major league contract like Correia can get innings. Just spitballing. (Pun intended.)

lowpup
12-19-2012, 03:54 PM
Bottom line is that we fans were promised contending teams. Two years ago a team not used to having money to spend gave it a try and failed miserably. So during the winter of of 11-12 after the worst season in recent history the twins decreased payroll for the 2012 season by over 18 million dollars going from 112 to 84 million. To no one's surprise, the team failed again this past year. Here we are one year later being fed the same lines as last year and it appears the twins are again going to unload enter the season with a lower payroll. Shoudl it come to a surpris to any of us that they are again terrible this next August?

I get that you can't spend all your money three or four guys on your team, but you still have to put a product on the field that me, you, and all the other fans out there want to spend hard earned money on. This includes spending between 10 and 20 million a year on a pitcher we can ever pretend is an ace after having the worst staff in the league for two years.

The realization is that this is a business, and unless somethign has an impact on the bottom line the Pohlad's will not respond.....so doesn't that really make this all our fault in the end?

Monkeypaws
12-19-2012, 03:58 PM
Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.
It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed!

Thing is, do you know what offers Ryan put out there that weren't accepted? Maybe he made legit offers to guys like Haren and McCarthy, but they simply chose to go elsewhere.

Last place team has trouble attracting top free agents - no surprise there.

Pretty simple to just blame Ryan.

strumdatjag
12-19-2012, 03:59 PM
I think the Twins need both quantity and quality of pitching. Terry Ryan has added more bodies - So we're better in the "quantity department". Now, when lack of production or injuries happen, there will be more options to fill in the rotation (and replace those options that don't produce). The Twins still need quality. They need the proverbial STOPPER that they've had in the past with Santana, Radke, Morris, Viola . . . I's really like two quality top of the rotation guys, but the Twins should start by developing, signing or trading for one. Next year, there probably won't be one - not even at the level of Carl Pavano's first year as a Twin.

ThePuck
12-19-2012, 04:49 PM
Thing is, do you know what offers Ryan put out there that weren't accepted? Maybe he made legit offers to guys like Haren and McCarthy, but they simply chose to go elsewhere.

Last place team has trouble attracting top free agents - no surprise there.

Pretty simple to just blame Ryan.

So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then? I'm guessing, because the team did well they didn't feel the need to upgrade the rotation? Cause first place teams almost always rest on their laurels on pitching after fluke seasons by some pitchers?

What about after 2009? First place team, 26th ranked rotation. Ideal spot for FA pitching, right? First place team...Who'd we sign in the offseason after 2009?

What about getting even one top notch pitcher in FA after 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006? first place teams, all ideal spots for FA pitchers. I'm guessing that was because our staff was good enough? Or was it because we didn't have money then?

70charger
12-19-2012, 05:26 PM
So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then? I'm guessing, because the team did well they didn't feel the need to upgrade the rotation? Cause first place teams almost always rest on their laurels on pitching after fluke seasons by some pitchers?

What about after 2009? First place team, 26th ranked rotation. Ideal spot for FA pitching, right? First place team...Who'd we sign in the offseason after 2009?

What about getting even one top notch pitcher in FA after 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006? first place teams, all ideal spots for FA pitchers. I'm guessing that was because our staff was good enough? Or was it because we didn't have money then?

a) Much of that was Bill Smith
b) For the rest of it, we were dealing with Metrodome dollars

c) (most important) It's still all speculation with absolutely no proof.

LoganJones
12-19-2012, 05:27 PM
So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then?

And who should they have signed? Cliff Lee? (5 Years 120M, took less to return to Philly) Ted Lilly? (3 Years 33M at age 35.) The Twins signed the 4th largest contract for pitching to Pavano (2/16.5 also at age 35). They weren't exactly cheap, there just wasn't anyone gettable & worthwhile to get.

Here's the complete List.
2011 Major League Baseball Free Agents - Starting Pitchers On The MLB Free Agent Market (http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/2011-Mlb-Free-Agents-Starting-Pitchers.htm)

Chris Capuano would have made sense, in hindsight, but that's not fair.

snepp
12-19-2012, 05:51 PM
Dan S, who does zips, just joked that whenever he tries to project the twins pitching, he gets a blue screen of death....

Projecting the Twins pitching starts with a bottle of Jack.

mike wants wins
12-19-2012, 05:54 PM
Terry Ryan defenders, who did he sign to play OF or DH in his last term, when they had some of the worst DHs in history, and had a good team? What gives you any belief that he would sign a big time player to a big time contract? What evidence do you have?

JP3700
12-19-2012, 06:07 PM
As I stated in another thread, I don't mind the approach, but I do question the players. I was one of the many that said.. if I were the GM.. I'd go after a Sanchez, Marcum or Jackson. It's now clear that it's not going to happen nor was it ever going to, which is fine. I understand that we are rebuilding and short-term, low risk contracts is the safe path to take.

I loved the trades, but we invested $14+ million into Correia and Pelfrey. An "innings eater" and a guy coming off injury with upside. Why didn't we invest $17 million into Haren and Lannan.. a better guy coming off injury and a better "innings eater". Both were available in trades.. one for most likely a D prospect with upside and the other as a cherry on top to the Span trade.

Haren
Diamond
Worley
Lannan
Hendriks

Gibson, Deduno, DeVries

Suddenly the state of the starting corps looks a lot better while investing about the same amount of money. Obviously I'm using hindsight, but I don't think I'm being unreasonable.

Nick Nelson
12-19-2012, 07:33 PM
Terry Ryan defenders, who did he sign to play OF or DH in his last term, when they had some of the worst DHs in history, and had a good team? What gives you any belief that he would sign a big time player to a big time contract? What evidence do you have?

I imagine no one would deny that Ryan has been unsuccessful on the free agent market. He doesn't spend competitive dollars there, never has. Bargain bin players tend to have a low rate of success. Here's the thing: we don't know if it's because of his mindset or a mindset that is imposed upon him by ownership. The Pohlads are shrewd business folks and big-name free agents are generally bad (though you could argue necessary) investments.

I have a hard time believing that Ryan would not like to add a top-tier pitcher if he had free reign to do so. Simply makes no sense. He wants to field a good team and he obviously doesn't think Kevin Correia is better than Anibal Sanchez.


Projecting the Twins pitching starts with a bottle of Jack.

Classic.

TheLeviathan
12-19-2012, 07:55 PM
What difference does the distinction about Ryan make? If your point is that Ryan would be a free agent spender for another club, it's irrelevant if he is the GM here. The point, either way, is that expecting that this team was going to go splash into free agency and fix a terrible rotation in one off-season was baseless for anything but wishful thinking regardles of whether you blame Ryan or the Pohlads. Either way it was highly unlikely to have expected that, which is what mike was getting at.

We shouldn't be that shocked that our 2013 rotation is not significantly improved. It was the far more reasonable belief based on pretty much every available basis for making a prediction besides blind hope.

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 08:09 PM
What difference does the distinction about Ryan make? If your point is that Ryan would be a free agent spender for another club, it's irrelevant if he is the GM here. The point, either way, is that expecting that this team was going to go splash into free agency and fix a terrible rotation in one off-season was baseless for anything but wishful thinking regardles of whether you blame Ryan or the Pohlads. Either way it was highly unlikely to have expected that, which is what mike was getting at.

We shouldn't be that shocked that our 2013 rotation is not significantly improved. It was the far more reasonable belief based on pretty much every available basis for making a prediction besides blind hope.

...or... you know... base the expectations on exactly that Ryan said he intended to do in interviews. If our expectations this time were unreasonable, it was Ryan who established them by telling everyone his intention was to explore every avenue to add better starting pitching. I'm sorry, but adding a bunch of guys who MIGHT be acceptable #5 pitchers IF they can transition from the NL and/or come back from major injuries and/or have better years than any other years in their careers simply is not what Ryan himself led fans to believe he would settle for.

ThePuck
12-19-2012, 08:22 PM
a) Much of that was Bill Smith
b) For the rest of it, we were dealing with Metrodome dollars

c) (most important) It's still all speculation with absolutely no proof.

How do you figure it's still all speculation with absolutely no proof? The person I was responding to said we can't sign FAs because we're a last place team. So I asked why we didn't sign any top FA pitching when we were first place teams. Did we do that and I missed it?

Saying we can't sign anyone because we're a last place team is simplistic...because we were a first place team before and didn't sign any top notch pitching. That includes the offseason prior to going into TF and the first offseason after being in TF.

But I get it, it's all Bill Smith's fault. Ryan couldn't sign anyone last offseason after being only one year removed from back to back first place finishes with the most recent of the two first place finishes scoring 94 wins. His team was also in TF ....and instead of getting pitching, he cut payroll. Oh wait, he got Marquis.

Thing is, if one tries, there's always a reason to throw out there as to why we didn't sign any quality starting pitching through free agency. If we win the division, they won't go sign quality starting pitching because the rotation was good enough to win the division, if we don't and play horribly, well no pitcher wants to come play here. In the meantime, they cut payroll 18M last offseason and have cut more this offseason.

TheLeviathan
12-19-2012, 08:28 PM
it was Ryan who established them by telling everyone his intention was to explore every avenue to add better starting pitching. .

Agreed, even more reason to disregard any distinction about Ryan/Pohlads that tries to deflect away from Ryan's accountability.

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 08:46 PM
Agreed, even more reason to disregard any distinction about Ryan/Pohlads that tries to deflect away from Ryan's accountability.

Exactly right. As far as I'm concerned, Ryan and the Pohlads are synonymous. Both are equally culpable for failing (this far) to address the current rotation issues in any serious manner. Yes, it's ownership that establish budgetary limits. However, how many times did we hear Jim Pohlad, Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan say publicly that budget is not an issue... that Ryan doesn't get told he "can't" spend money... that they intended to field a competitive team in 2013, not just rebuild for the future? Didn't Ryan, himself, say that it was his job to assemble a rotation... in fact an entire roster... capable of doing so?

Does he get off the hook because FA prices were higher than he expected? I would hope not.

Look, I've been a Terry Ryan fan for years. I still really like the guy and think he's a VERY smart baseball man. But he and his bosses ALL have been telling fans we should expect to see a competitive team in 2013. That being the case, I just can't understand why so many people are willing to accept less from this front office.

old nurse
12-19-2012, 09:19 PM
Exactly right. As far as I'm concerned, Ryan and the Pohlads are synonymous. Both are equally culpable for failing (this far) to address the current rotation issues in any serious manner. Yes, it's ownership that establish budgetary limits. However, how many times did we hear Jim Pohlad, Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan say publicly that budget is not an issue... that Ryan doesn't get told he "can't" spend money... that they intended to field a competitive team in 2013, not just rebuild for the future? Didn't Ryan, himself, say that it was his job to assemble a rotation... in fact an entire roster... capable of doing so?


You still do not know who turned down advances.

Does he get off the hook because FA prices were higher than he expected? I would hope not.

Look, I've been a Terry Ryan fan for years. I still really like the guy and think he's a VERY smart baseball man. But he and his bosses ALL have been telling fans we should expect to see a competitive team in 2013. That being the case, I just can't understand why so many people are willing to accept less from this front office.

In a job market there are scarce professions. Elite level pitchers are propbably the most scarce. They pretty much have options on where to play. Why on earth would any free agent want to play on a last place team despite overtures? That leaves you fighting to get the ones that the top does not want. That usually happens late. The big boys finish their shopping soon. The cellar dwellers will have their chance next. It at this case is not accepting less, rather having enough sense to show some patience.

bmantfan
12-19-2012, 10:21 PM
Let's go get Freddy Garcia or one of the top starters like Lohse or Edwin Jackson. People who can win over 15 games and hasn't just come back from Tommy John Surgery or some kind of injury.

70charger
12-19-2012, 11:07 PM
My point on speculation is that, without some sort of direct line to the top level of Twins' discussions, nobody here knows a darn thing, but we're all too eager to pontificate about what we do "know." For all we "know," Terry Ryan offered $140 million to Greinke and got beat out by the Dodgers. I don't know. I doubt you do, unless you were on the phone call with his agent.

I think there's a lot of speculation going on that ignores that which is called "silent evidence" (by a scholar that I'm particularly fond of). Silent evidence is that which we do not know because we cannot see it and therefore ignore in favor of what we can see, which may not actually be representative.

To illustrate silent evidence, I posit this [fake] conversation:
Me: "How do you know that you've cured cancer, doctor?"
Doctor: "Well, nobody that I've given my cure to has come back to tell me that it didn't work."

To extend the point, all of the blind speculators here are pointing at the people we didn't sign and assuming that this is proof positive that we didn't try, that we didn't care, that Terry Ryan is one of the three stooges, that the Pohlads are actually descendants of Hitler, that the general management of the club is full of functional retards, that the Twins are pure evil incarnate...

It doesn't add up. Here's my thought. The Twins are doing the best they can, and it is likely that budget constraints (despite Target Field, we're not the Yankees) as well as general frugality are keeping the general management from splurging on the top of the order free agents. What I cannot accept is the idea that they don't care/hate the fans/are idiots. Until we know for sure, all we can do is speculate. Why would we speculate that the Twins' staff want us to suffer? Isn't it more likely that they're saving as much money as possible while attempting to field a <100 loss team, intending to spend more on free agents when free agent spending will actually matter?

I think so.

Top Gun
12-19-2012, 11:44 PM
I think not. If Ryan had offer any contracts it would have been reported, not one has even been reported so it not hard to tell that he hasn't offer any.

Jim Crikket
12-19-2012, 11:50 PM
I guess if you want to believe that, despite there being pretty much no hint whatsoever of the Twins doing more than "checking in" with agents of real pitchers, Terry Ryan has actually been working his ass off to sign one or more of those guys and always comes just THIS close, but always gets outbid by another team or the pitcher always wants to sign with better teams (like those perennial champions the Chicago Cubs, for example?), that's fine. I think you're giving him too much credit and I'll actually believe he is seriously going after a real pitcher when he actually gets one to sign on the dotted line... because the next time he lands one will be the first time. Until then, I'm done giving him credit for "trying".

Kwak
12-20-2012, 12:14 AM
Much teeth gnashing attacking/defending the FO. True, starting pitching was (still is!) a major problem and the FO admittedly has focused on that problem--but it sure wasn't the only deficiency on the roster. The Twins are under-powered, and quite frankly the back-half of the line didn't have anywhere near high enough OBP to justify their abysmal SLG. Span and Revere (neither with the team anymore!) did provide quality OBP, but their lack of SLG combined with the back half's poor OBP, and their combined RBI total was at best lacklustre (worse IMO). Tall and short of it, Ryan hasn't devoted any resources for improving the offense despite being "under budget" for the acquisition of the three promised starting pitchers. Then there is the question of substandard infield defense and the need to improve there (especially in DP efficiency) considering the Twins lack of Ks and plethora of ground balls. Those defending the actions of the FO by using quantity and not quality as the basis for signing free agent pitching (and its resultant lower cost!) when nothing has been done to improve the other deficiencies in the team by utilizing some (all?) of the money "saved" by signing lower cost pitchers.

70charger
12-20-2012, 12:23 AM
I guess if you want to believe that, despite there being pretty much no hint whatsoever of the Twins doing more than "checking in" with agents of real pitchers, Terry Ryan has actually been working his ass off to sign one or more of those guys and always comes just THIS close, but always gets outbid by another team or the pitcher always wants to sign with better teams (like those perennial champions the Chicago Cubs, for example?), that's fine. I think you're giving him too much credit and I'll actually believe he is seriously going after a real pitcher when he actually gets one to sign on the dotted line... because the next time he lands one will be the first time. Until then, I'm done giving him credit for "trying".

I think perhaps you're missing the point. I don't think it's likely that he offered $140 million for Greinke, but my point wasn't whether that was likely (or anything that is known is likely), but that what is unknown is more powerful than many are giving it credit for, as they only focus on the known and, more specifically, the known negative.

And I'm on record saying that I find it likely that they are "saving as much money as possible while attempting to field a <100 loss team, intending to spend more on free agents when free agent spending will actually matter."

Which of course is the smart thing to do.

70charger
12-20-2012, 12:28 AM
I'm going to try this one more time, and perhaps I'll get a better response. Let me go back to that ever-flowing cancer-analogy well.

If you go into the doctor and have a biopsy, and the biopsy comes back negative, you do not not have cancer. You have an absence of evidence of cancer (i.e., you didn't find any in the biopsy). On the other hand, the biopsy may have missed a small cancer cell cluster that could turn into a major problem. Until all is known, there is not evidence of absence of any cancer cells.

Note the difference - and it is a crucial difference. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Let's again extend the point. That which is currently known is that the Twins haven't signed anyone of note. There is an absence of evidence that they have attempted to sign or will sign someone that TD can agree is good. On the other hand, without something more substantial than speculation, there is no actual knowledge that we have not tried.

We have absence of evidence. We do not have evidence of absence. I'm not "giving the front office credit." I'm simply not excoriating them for something that we don't know that they haven't done.

old nurse
12-20-2012, 12:51 AM
I guess if you want to believe that, despite there being pretty much no hint whatsoever of the Twins doing more than "checking in" with agents of real pitchers, Terry Ryan has actually been working his ass off to sign one or more of those guys and always comes just THIS close, but always gets outbid by another team or the pitcher always wants to sign with better teams (like those perennial champions the Chicago Cubs, for example?), that's fine. I think you're giving him too much credit and I'll actually believe he is seriously going after a real pitcher when he actually gets one to sign on the dotted line... because the next time he lands one will be the first time. Until then, I'm done giving him credit for "trying".
So far this year the Cubs have signed no one. Nor have the Mets, Marlins, Cleveland, Colorado, Houston or SanDiego. Arizona signed McCarthy, KC got Guthrie, Seattle Iwakuma. If I missed a mid market team in a down cycle, sorry.

Top Gun
12-20-2012, 01:02 AM
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs have agreed to a deal with Carlos Villanueva.

Top Gun
12-20-2012, 01:05 AM
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman hears that Edwin Jackson is still "in play" for the Cubs following the signing of Carlos Villanueva.

FrodaddyG
12-20-2012, 02:24 AM
My review of the Twins' rotation as it stands would be the same as this magical album review:

Jet: Shine On | Album Reviews | Pitchfork (http://pitchfork.com/reviews/albums/9464-shine-on/)

Oxtung
12-20-2012, 03:53 AM
I'm going to try this one more time, and perhaps I'll get a better response. Let me go back to that ever-flowing cancer-analogy well.

If you go into the doctor and have a biopsy, and the biopsy comes back negative, you do not not have cancer. You have an absence of evidence of cancer (i.e., you didn't find any in the biopsy). On the other hand, the biopsy may have missed a small cancer cell cluster that could turn into a major problem. Until all is known, there is not evidence of absence of any cancer cells.

Note the difference - and it is a crucial difference. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Let's again extend the point. That which is currently known is that the Twins haven't signed anyone of note. There is an absence of evidence that they have attempted to sign or will sign someone that TD can agree is good. On the other hand, without something more substantial than speculation, there is no actual knowledge that we have not tried.

We have absence of evidence. We do not have evidence of absence. I'm not "giving the front office credit." I'm simply not excoriating them for something that we don't know that they haven't done.

There are a few things wrong with your analogy. First there were many good FA pitchers out there this year that the Twins could have pursued; not just one. Second there are many journalists out there trying to get the inside scoop on each of those pitchers; not just one doctor. So a more accurate analogy would be the patient took 7 or 8 different types of tests and he went to a dozen different doctors who each wanted to run their own tests. Every single one of those tests came back as negative. So sure, I guess everyone of those tests could have been incorrect but a higher likely hood would be that you truly are cancer free.

To bring this back to the point at hand; if there were only one or two available pitchers out there or if none of the media really tried to ferret out the truth or if the Twins were known as an orginization that was well versed in keeping their dealings secret maybe you would have a point. But the there were many pitchers out there, there are a dozen writers trying to break the news, especially when it comes to the big names, and the Span and Revere trades as well as both the Pelfrey and Correia signings were all swirling in the rumor mill.

At some point the lack of evidence, while never definitive, becomes so overwhelming as to imply that in fact no big name pitcher was ever being truly considered by the Twins.

If this post doesn't make sense I apologize in advance. It is currently 4am as I am finishing this up and am thinking to myself, WTF am I still doing up! Stupid TD message boards. ;)

oldgoat
12-20-2012, 04:03 AM
The Twins rotation at the beginning of last year was completely alarmingly bad. I think people forget that sometimes. Correia may be bad, but he is not THAT bad. He is likely a 5th starter. The Twins didn't even start the season with a legitimate 4 starter last year. They were all bad, bad, bad. Starting the year with Diamond and Worley is in itself a big improvement. Also, DeVries and Deduno were much better than Marquis and Blackburn last year.

Don't get me wrong, I want the Twins to pay Shaun Marcum the money he wants to come pitch for the Twins. That one move could significantly alter things chain-reaction style.

Also, starting Kyle Gibson in the rotation for the Twins would be stupid. He should be on an innings limit in Rochester until June 1st. I would think, right now, that Pelfrey/Deduno/DeVries would hold down that spot in the rotation until Gibson is June-ready to go 5-6 innings. Until then, I would really throw Gibson 3 innings a game in Rochester and have Andrew Albers (lefty) be his personal reliever. This would keep Gibson at 30 innings and then he would have 100-110 for the Twins.

The only reasonable rotation, barring any other additions, is Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Correia, Pelfrey/Deduno/DeVries. This group is marginally better than the 2012 group as a whole and much better than the April-May rotation.
The most lucid blog I've seen. Let's not forget the beauty of baseball is the out of nowhere stories. Last year at this time all those that thought Scott Diamond would win 12 games please raise your hand. That's what I thought. Being a true baseball requires patience. Cub fans laugh at Twins fans impatience! This guy who's going to boycott the Twins....don't let the door hit you in the butt. With fewer fans comes better seat jumping opportunities at the park to watch the greatest game ever invented up close and personal.

TheLeviathan
12-20-2012, 06:46 AM
To extend the point, all of the blind speculators here are pointing at the people we didn't sign and assuming that this is proof positive that we didn't try, that we didn't care, that Terry Ryan is one of the three stooges, that the Pohlads are actually descendants of Hitler, that the general management of the club is full of functional retards, that the Twins are pure evil incarnate...

Seems to me the people really guilty of "silent evidence" were those that believed the Twins were going to remold their pitching staff in one off-season on the basis of a few pre-offseason interviews designed to keep season ticket holders around. The actual evidence is that Ryan doesn't like handing out big contracts to pitchers - never has, never will. (Which, again, I don't mind. I'm not a Ryan basher - I like him.)

But the fact is those that took him at his word that he was going to add significant pitching have a right to hold him accountable to those words. All the spinning and deflecting being done from that is the problem.

savvyspy
12-20-2012, 07:45 AM
The rotation has improved just by the addition of Worley and the subtraction of Blackburn over last year. Marquis and Correia are a wash, both horrendously bad. I like Diamond and Worley. It's a start and they both know how to pitch. I kind of wish they'd let Deduno pitch. He was the only guy in the rotation that could miss bats. His control could come around. He's honestly better than Hendriks or DeVries just by way of he has upside. I'd go Worley, Diamond, Deduno, Hendriks, and Gibson after May when Correia is Marquis 2.0 and Pelfrey is shut down in Spring Training with arm soreness.

mike wants wins
12-20-2012, 08:24 AM
It is not Ryan's job to try to make the team better, it is his job to make the team better. Drew Buyers tries to hot, does not mean he should keep his job. I do not care what Ryan tried or did not try. So far, he has failed to do what he said he would do.

jokin
12-20-2012, 09:28 AM
I'm going to try this one more time, and perhaps I'll get a better response. Let me go back to that ever-flowing cancer-analogy well.

If you go into the doctor and have a biopsy, and the biopsy comes back negative, you do not not have cancer. You have an absence of evidence of cancer (i.e., you didn't find any in the biopsy). On the other hand, the biopsy may have missed a small cancer cell cluster that could turn into a major problem. Until all is known, there is not evidence of absence of any cancer cells.

Note the difference - and it is a crucial difference. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Let's again extend the point. That which is currently known is that the Twins haven't signed anyone of note. There is an absence of evidence that they have attempted to sign or will sign someone that TD can agree is good. On the other hand, without something more substantial than speculation, there is no actual knowledge that we have not tried.

We have absence of evidence. We do not have evidence of absence. I'm not "giving the front office credit." I'm simply not excoriating them for something that we don't know that they haven't done.


Seems to me the people really guilty of "silent evidence" were those that believed the Twins were going to remold their pitching staff in one off-season on the basis of a few pre-offseason interviews designed to keep season ticket holders around. The actual evidence is that Ryan doesn't like handing out big contracts to pitchers - never has, never will. (Which, again, I don't mind. I'm not a Ryan basher - I like him.)

But the fact is those that took him at his word that he was going to add significant pitching have a right to hold him accountable to those words. All the spinning and deflecting being done from that is the problem.

I hope I'll get "credit" for "trying" to unravel all of the triple negatives and FO analogy-spinning going on in this discussion.

A few questions:

1) Is TR not having John Lannan thrown into the Span trade evidence of absence- or- absence of evidence?

2) Is TR's continual failure to take advantage of his waiver wire position " patiently shrewd frugality"- or- putting 2013/2014 on automatic pilot while maintaining to the public that the Twins will be "competitive"?

3) Does the "actual" evidence presented, Ie, the "actual" current roster, the "actual" FA signings, gives the club license to shout a unifying rallying cry to all the fans in Twinsland? Is anyone in the FO in possession of "actual" optimism that 2013 will be an improvement on 2011/2012? ( You yourself already stated that they are merely "trying" to field a "< 100-loss team" as signatory of how hard they're trying and how shrewd they are in spending money only when it matters)

jokin
12-20-2012, 09:31 AM
So far this year the Cubs have signed no one. Nor have the Mets, Marlins, Cleveland, Colorado, Houston or SanDiego. Arizona signed McCarthy, KC got Guthrie, Seattle Iwakuma. If I missed a mid market team in a down cycle, sorry.

I think any objective observer would concede that the Cubs' signings of Villanueva, Baker and Feldman is a significantly better offseason SP upgrade over the Twins efforts.

old nurse
12-20-2012, 09:39 AM
I think any objective observer would concede that the Cubs' signings of Villanueva, Baker and Feldman is a significantly better offseason SP upgrade over the Twins efforts.

Long term Feldman is better than Meyers? Worley and May are combined worse than Baker? Oh, you meant for this week.

jokin
12-20-2012, 09:50 AM
Long term Feldman is better than Meyers? Worley and May are combined worse than Baker? Oh, you meant for this week.

I believe the topic is the current state of the starting corps.

70charger
12-20-2012, 10:09 AM
I hope I'll get "credit" for "trying" to unravel all of the triple negatives and FO analogy-spinning going on in this discussion.

A few questions:

1) Is TR not having John Lannan thrown into the Span trade evidence of absence- or- absence of evidence?

2) Is TR's continual failure to take advantage of his waiver wire position " patiently shrewd frugality"- or- putting 2013/2014 on automatic pilot while maintaining to the public that the Twins will be "competitive"?

3) Does the "actual" evidence presented, Ie, the "actual" current roster, the "actual" FA signings, gives the club license to shout a unifying rallying cry to all the fans in Twinsland? Is anyone in the FO in possession of "actual" optimism that 2013 will be an improvement on 2011/2012? ( You yourself already stated that they are merely "trying" to field a "< 100-loss team" as signatory of how hard they're trying and how shrewd they are in spending money only when it matters)

Let me reiterate. I'm not attempting to cover for the front office or give them credit for things they're doing or not doing. I'm just objecting to the conclusive (read: conclusory) statements being thrown around about the front office's actions in the absence of silent evidence. Again, my thoguht is that they're likely trying to save money for addition of free agents when their talented core of cost-controlled current-minor leaguers hits the big leagues in 2014-15. I may yet be proven wrong. But many of the posters here may yet be proven wrong when they say things like "TR isn't trying," or "the Pohlads are greedy," or "the Twins cannot be competitive next year." I think there's too much confidence in people's presumed knowledge of what is actually unknown. If anyone has real evidence, by all means let's hear it. If you don't, and you're speculating, say as much. That way, when you're wrong, we'll know why.

Now, to answer your questions:

1. Still absence of evidence; we don't know if he tried to get the throw-in. Certainly given the actual situation, there is a high likelihood that he didn't try for Lannan, and let's assume that he didn't for argument's sake. I still maintain that we don't know why, but I posit that perhaps Terry Ryan didn't want Lannan. Isn't that at least as likely as the idea that he's cheap? (Or more likely, since Lannan wasn't expensive at all?) In any case, he is in a better position to evaluate these things than you or I.

2. We don't know. How would we know that? Claiming that we know this for sure one way or another is incorrect and a little arrogant. Speculate all you want, but don't tell me you know unless you can back it up.

3. The actual evidence doesn't give "the club license to shout a unifying rallying cry to all the fans in Twinsland," and I think you already acknowledged that I never said anything like that. Of course, the PR department is going to do their job, and Terry Ryan will never tell you that he is anything but optimistic for next season. But like I said, given the evidence presented, I find it likely that they're going to field a below-average team, hope for some luck, and save their money for the future. Feel free to disagree.

Top Gun
12-20-2012, 10:30 AM
You do not save money for the future by putting in your pocket. You invest it or you lose it.

jokin
12-20-2012, 10:40 AM
Let me reiterate. I'm not attempting to cover for the front office or give them credit for things they're doing or not doing. I'm just objecting to the conclusive (read: conclusory) statements being thrown around about the front office's actions in the absence of silent evidence. Again, my thoguht is that they're likely trying to save money for addition of free agents when their talented core of cost-controlled current-minor leaguers hits the big leagues in 2014-15. I may yet be proven wrong. But many of the posters here may yet be proven wrong when they say things like "TR isn't trying," or "the Pohlads are greedy," or "the Twins cannot be competitive next year." I think there's too much confidence in people's presumed knowledge of what is actually unknown. If anyone has real evidence, by all means let's hear it. If you don't, and you're speculating, say as much. That way, when you're wrong, we'll know why.

Now, to answer your questions:

1. Still absence of evidence; we don't know if he tried to get the throw-in. Certainly given the actual situation, there is a high likelihood that he didn't try for Lannan, and let's assume that he didn't for argument's sake. I still maintain that we don't know why, but I posit that perhaps Terry Ryan didn't want Lannan. Isn't that at least as likely as the idea that he's cheap? (Or more likely, since Lannan wasn't expensive at all?) In any case, he is in a better position to evaluate these things than you or I.

2. We don't know. How would we know that? Claiming that we know this for sure one way or another is incorrect and a little arrogant. Speculate all you want, but don't tell me you know unless you can back it up.

3. The actual evidence doesn't give "the club license to shout a unifying rallying cry to all the fans in Twinsland," and I think you already acknowledged that I never said anything like that. Of course, the PR department is going to do their job, and Terry Ryan will never tell you that he is anything but optimistic for next season. But like I said, given the evidence presented, I find it likely that they're going to field a below-average team, hope for some luck, and save their money for the future. Feel free to disagree.

Thanks for a thoughtful response. You and I actually aren't too far away in opinion on this.

Let me say regarding evidence about 2013, the current roster and the reality of career regressions, injury recurrences, player trades and rookies' wall-hitting, the chances for Twins success is equivalent to....well Las Vegas says the Twins are 100/1 and only the Astros have longer odds.

1) I have posited that the Twins really, really, didn't want John Lannan. But it's arguable that he has more, or as much, to offer as Pelfrey and Correia, for less money. Notwithstanding, PR-wise, the trade would have looked better with Lannan thrown in and sent the word out that the Twins were on the move, possibly inducing other interest from players and clubs for other deals.

2) The Twins one big advantage in their position is first in line in watching that waiver wire for sabremetric bargains, market inefficiencies and other potential circumstantial opportunities. They also have the money to be creative in some of these types of deals, that they're not doing so is not speculation, the names of veterans, role guys and intriguing prospects that the Twins have not claimed is there for all to see. The farthest the Twins go in their pursuit of these opportunities has been the likes of Erik Komatsu.

3) On this, we mostly agree, although now, you're the one who's speculating that they're "saving their money for the future". Sadly, as of today, "below average team" is more optimistic than realistic. Last year's FA signings were thrifty replacements, not upgrades (in Willingham's case, there's some of that "luck" you were talking about) and not every vacant hole was even replaced. This year's signings aren't thrifty, they would make the two bag ladies down at the local Savers blush. The next big FA signings (in 2014/5?) will be the first such signings in over 20 years. And yet, I think that actually crossing that 8-figure threshold for an "outsider" FA paralyzes the FO in a state of abject fear and panic

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 10:57 AM
I think any objective observer would concede that the Cubs' signings of Villanueva, Baker and Feldman is a significantly better offseason SP upgrade over the Twins efforts.

And it looks like they're gonna add Jackson. I find it amazing they can add Feldman, Jackson and Villaneuva. I mean, they lost 5 more games than we did last year and have only missed being in last the last three years cause they had the Astros in their division. How can they possibly attract an Edwin Jackson when we know the only reason the Twins can't sign players like that is cause we're so bad?

70charger
12-20-2012, 11:08 AM
jokin, I doubt we're actually that far apart either. I will address one final point, in your #3. I am absolutely speculating. I never said that speculating was bad, I would just prefer it to be called out as speculation. If you want to guess what's happening or what will happen, feel free, but call it a guess.

I despise the posts that are nothing more than "Terry Ryan is a joke," or "the Twins are clearly punting," or "the front office isn't even trying to go after free agents." I despise them because they presume to know things that aren't actually known. They're guesses gussied up as factual statements. Remember that every good free agent that isn't signed does not prove that the Twins won't sign a good free agent, but only a single good free agent signed would disprove the idea that the Twins won't sign free agents. Empirical proof is funny that way.

johnnydakota
12-20-2012, 11:14 AM
Over the years i wonder how many pitchers decide it was time to retire after getting a call from Terry Ryan with a 1 year offer?

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 11:18 AM
jokin, I doubt we're actually that far apart either. I will address one final point, in your #3. I am absolutely speculating. I never said that speculating was bad, I would just prefer it to be called out as speculation. If you want to guess what's happening or what will happen, feel free, but call it a guess.

I despise the posts that are nothing more than "Terry Ryan is a joke," or "the Twins are clearly punting," or "the front office isn't even trying to go after free agents." I despise them because they presume to know things that aren't actually known. They're guesses gussied up as factual statements. Remember that every good free agent that isn't signed does not prove that the Twins won't sign a good free agent, but only a single good free agent signed would disprove the idea that the Twins won't sign free agents. Empirical proof is funny that way.

Then maybe one should also call out the people who say that the only reason, or even the main reason, quality FA pitcher don't sign here is because we are a last place team. Where's the empirical proof in that. Have pitchers said that?

The difference between that speculation and the speculation you dislike so much is one of them slams Ryan and the other lets him off the hook. It's all speculation to varying degrees, but you seem to only have issue with the speculations that slam Ryan. Thing is, now we're seeing Jackson about to be signed by a team worse than ours. Not a last place team, mind you...but a team that finished 5 games worse than ours. Could it be because the Cubs made the best offer and he took it, regardless of them losing over 100 games last year and over 90 the year before?

70charger
12-20-2012, 11:52 AM
Then maybe one should also call out the people who say that the only reason, or even the main reason, quality FA pitcher don't sign here is because we are a last place team. Where's the empirical proof in that. Have pitchers said that?

The difference between that speculation and the speculation you dislike so much is one of them slams Ryan and the other lets him off the hook. It's all speculation to varying degrees, but you seem to only have issue with the speculations that slam Ryan. Thing is, now we're seeing Jackson about to be signed by a team worse than ours. Not a last place team, mind you...but a team that finished 5 games worse than ours. Could it be because the Cubs made the best offer and he took it, regardless of them losing over 100 games last year and over 90 the year before?

Silent evidence problem. QED.

Of course I have a problem with the people who claim that the only reason we're not signing certain people is because they don't want to come here. Not only is that ridiculous (I love it here in June), but there's no way of knowing unless you're able to ask the player. The fact that I didn't mention it doesn't mean that I don't have a problem with it.

If it makes you feel better, I'll call it out in the future.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 12:34 PM
Starting Pitching... It seems to me... You have a handful of amazing guys... Kershaw and such... You also have a handful of pretty damn bad... In between the small percentage of Lights out and awful.

There is this very large pile of average pitchers.

The problem with the Twins is that we had more than the acceptable share of awful Starting Pitchers in 2012 and no place to turn.

Marquis 7 starts 8.47
Blackburn 19 starts 7.39
Pavano 11 start 6.00
Walters 12 starts 5.69
vazquez 6 starts 5.68
hendriks 16 starts 5.59
liriano 17 starts 5.31
duensong 11 starts 5.12
Swarzak 5 starts 5.03

Thats 104 starts...

There were a total of 67 pitchers in MLB who had an ERA over 5 that made at least 6 starts. That's a little more than 2 per team... We had 9 of them.
There were 40 Pitchers in MLB who had an ERA over 5 that made at least 11 starts. A little over 1 per team... We had 8 of them.
There were 28 pitchers who had an ERA over 5 that made at least 16 starts. A little less than 1 per team. We had 4 of them including Marquis.

Diamond... Dedeno and DeVries made 58 starts and averaged AVERAGE!!! I find it amazing that we were able to win 66 games.

I guess my point is this. There is absolutely no way that we are going to acquire Kershaw and such. None... Unless we catch a kid like Meyer or May before he gets here. Dickey... was going to cost Sano... No one wants to do that. The really good pitchers are not coming period.

The best FA pitcher available was Greinke and Im sorry if anyone disagrees with this but Greinke gets thrown into the average pile. 2009 was clearly an elite pitching year for Greinke... Every other Greinke year was average and now worth 147 million.

The difference between Greinke and Ian Kennedy and his average 4.02 is 11 runs over 33 starts. So in the end... What is it that we are discussing here? And what are the Dodgers paying for?

TR isn't wrong when he says he needs options to turn to. Diamond... DeVries... Deduno are options... Worley... Correia and Pelfrey are Options... Gibson and Hendriks will be Options. Even Blackburm is an option and hopefully we will sign another option to give us ten.

I realize nobody is excited about those options but what we need is this... If one of those options fail... We have another option to turn to.

We did not have that last year. Blackburn made 19 starts... Liriano and Hendriks made 17 and 16 starts because we didn't have anyone to turn to.

Hopefully this year... We have someone to trot out there if Correia fails. Hopefully we will have at least 5 pitchers who perform at least average. With Average pitching... we can then begin to assess the kind of offensive players we truly have because they will be in games with a chance to win. We will find out what we are made of.

Shooting for average is OK because true quality isn't available in the FA market or the trade market.

You just end up spinning your wheels over shades of average.

This is what quantity over quality is all about. True Quality is not available so you might as well load up on the quantity.

I'd like Jackson or Marcum... And the reason I really want TR to bid aggressively for either of them is because I think they have a chance to contribute in 2015.

For 2013... They are both average? If we sign them... They get thrown into the quantity pile.

old nurse
12-20-2012, 01:16 PM
I hope I'll get "credit" for "trying" to unravel all of the triple negatives and FO analogy-spinning going on in this discussion.

A few questions:

1) Is TR not having John Lannan thrown into the Span trade evidence of absence- or- absence of evidence?

2) Is TR's continual failure to take advantage of his waiver wire position " patiently shrewd frugality"- or- putting 2013/2014 on automatic pilot while maintaining to the public that the Twins will be "competitive"?

3) Does the "actual" evidence presented, Ie, the "actual" current roster, the "actual" FA signings, gives the club license to shout a unifying rallying cry to all the fans in Twinsland? Is anyone in the FO in possession of "actual" optimism that 2013 will be an improvement on 2011/2012? ( You yourself already stated that they are merely "trying" to field a "< 100-loss team" as signatory of how hard they're trying and how shrewd they are in spending money only when it matters)

The lack of Lannan being thrown into the Span trade was evidence that Ryan did not think he was worth the arbitration price. That proved to be accurate with his low figure he signed for.

Waiver wire pickups are different than free agents. What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference? Essentially they have been fringe AAAA players. There are plenty of people complaining of the last bunch he signed.

LaBombo
12-20-2012, 01:19 PM
Shooting for average is OK because true quality isn't available in the FA market or the trade market.

You just end up spinning your wheels over shades of average.

This is what quantity over quality is all about. True Quality is not available so you might as well load up on the quantity.

I'd like Jackson or Marcum... And the reason I really want TR to bid aggressively for either of them is because I think they have a chance to contribute in 2015.

For 2013... They are both average? If we sign them... They get thrown into the quantity pile.

Jackson is apparently off the board, and while I like Marcum too, I'm not holding my breath.

But I'm curious about your definition of true quality. Wouldn't Marcum and Jackson fit that category? Didn't Greinke before he signed? And what about guys like McCarthy and Villenueva, with upside and risk? Don't they fit in an entirely different category from the pool from which the Twins signed their guys or have shown genuine interest in?

Like you I'm hoping they concentrate on the future, but they could've been better this year while getting a head start on the future instead of wasting time and money with guys like Correia.

Shane Wahl
12-20-2012, 01:27 PM
Baker>Villanueva>Pelfrey>Correia = Feldman = Garcia (if he is added)

$17.5 million for B, V and F, and about $12-13 million for P, C, and G.

Roughly Denard Span's salary, which was . . . saved by trading him.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 01:44 PM
Jackson is apparently off the board, and while I like Marcum too, I'm not holding my breath.

But I'm curious about your definition of true quality. Wouldn't Marcum and Jackson fit that category? Didn't Greinke before he signed? And what about guys like McCarthy and Villenueva, with upside and risk? Don't they fit in an entirely different category from the pool from which the Twins signed their guys or have shown genuine interest in?

Like you I'm hoping they concentrate on the future, but they could've been better this year while getting a head start on the future instead of wasting time and money with guys like Correia.

You have some guys like Kershaw... Verlander... King Felix... Guys so talented that when they take the mound... You wouldn't bet anything important that they won't hang a zero every inning they pitch that day. Guys who can win the game by themselves. There are very few of these guys.

The next group is the average group and membership in this group is overflowing. These guys can pitch but they don't dominate... They will have games where they shut the door followed by games spent in the showers early but most games are just run of the mill 6 inning and a couple of runs given up just like the guy they face on the other team that day. The good and bad starts can't be counted on... Yet... the average starts are fairly consistent. When you hear the term innings eater... This is the group they come from.

Then there are truly bad... No confidence... Throwing pitches scared... Trying to be to fine and missing. Praying that the ball finds a glove. They are capable of giving up 6 runs in an inning any time they take the mound. There are not many of these guys in MLB because the majority of them are tossed aside to start up a drywall business.

With Greinke... I was probably a little harsh... He does have that hang a zero ability but he just hasn't hung enough zeros to be in the upper group.

Marcum... Jackson... Villanueva and McCarthy... Are clearly in the average group. I don't think any of them are zero hangers.

old nurse
12-20-2012, 01:47 PM
I believe the topic is the current state of the starting corps.

So you should ignore the tomorrows? OK Gibson or Pelfrey could be as good as Baker. They individually might pitch as much this year as Baker does. Worley as good as Feldman. DeVries, Deduno or Duensing as good as Vilanueva

Nick Nelson
12-20-2012, 01:49 PM
Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 02:03 PM
That point was reached a long time ago... Where ya been Nick?

Monkeypaws
12-20-2012, 02:18 PM
So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then? I'm guessing, because the team did well they didn't feel the need to upgrade the rotation? Cause first place teams almost always rest on their laurels on pitching after fluke seasons by some pitchers?

What about after 2009? First place team, 26th ranked rotation. Ideal spot for FA pitching, right? First place team...Who'd we sign in the offseason after 2009?

What about getting even one top notch pitcher in FA after 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006? first place teams, all ideal spots for FA pitchers. I'm guessing that was because our staff was good enough? Or was it because we didn't have money then?

How do you know they didn't make offers? You can't hold a gun to a free agent's head and order them to sign your offer, hence the "free" of free agent.

70charger
12-20-2012, 02:26 PM
Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

Actually, we've reached the point where debates about epistemological skepticism are being applied to the free agent market. I can't tell if that's better or worse.

I hate the offseason. I'm going back to the thread about sexy GMs.

Top Gun
12-20-2012, 02:29 PM
Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs have signed free agent right-hander Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million contract.



Source: Patrick Mooney on Twitter (https://twitter.com/CSNMooney/status/281856432062742529)

LaBombo
12-20-2012, 02:34 PM
Marcum... Jackson... Villanueva and McCarthy... Are clearly in the average group. I don't think any of them are zero hangers.

Unless you're placing Correia and Pelfrey in that latter group of 'about to be unemployed', then you're saying they're really no different from Marcum and Jackson, right? So if you can't get Felix Hernandez you might as well not sweat the difference between Marcum and Correia? If you mean that neither will make the Twins contenders in 2013, that's fine.

But if you mean there's no difference ever between Marcum and a guy who gives up an extra run every nine innings, then I disagree. In fact I think it's safe to say that you're leaving out an entire group of pitchers, those who are not aces but are consistently above average. Having two of those guys in addition to an ace and two Correias instead of an ace and four Correias sounds to me like the difference between a potential contender and an also-ran.

Top Gun
12-20-2012, 02:36 PM
What kid of gun does the Cubs have? We should get one of them!

Willihammer
12-20-2012, 02:38 PM
What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference?

Does Mickey Storey tickle your fancy? The 73-win Blue Jays plucked him off the waiver wire just yesterday. Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling these AAAA guys all offseason for almost nothing.

cmathewson
12-20-2012, 02:54 PM
At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

The only name left that would be an upgrade over Deduno/Gibson/Hendrix is Lohse. Ryan doesn't like to bring guys back who leave on their own accord. I would have loved another starter, but I doubt they will get one before Spring Training. The best hope is that one of the three I just mentioned steps up in camp and asserts himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter. My money is on Deduno, who seemed to turn a corner last year and has been lights out in the Dominican league. Perhaps they can start with Gibson in the pen and he can be the first guy to fill in when one of the other four falters.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 03:04 PM
Unless you're placing Correia and Pelfrey in that latter group of 'about to be unemployed', then you're saying they're really no different from Marcum and Jackson, right? So if you can't get Felix Hernandez you might as well not sweat the difference between Marcum and Correia? If you mean that neither will make the Twins contenders in 2013, that's fine.

But if you mean there's no difference ever between Marcum and a guy who gives up an extra run every nine innings, then I disagree. In fact I think it's safe to say that you're leaving out an entire group of pitchers, those who are not aces but are consistently above average. Having two of those guys in addition to an ace and two Correias instead of an ace and four Correias sounds to me like the difference between a potential contender and an also-ran.

I think you and I are going to end up disagreeing a little but not by a large margin. It's your own personal call if you want to make more piles of pitchers.

Myself... I believe it's all about each individual game and if you look at it from each individual game. Only the zero hanger... (and there is only a few of these guys) are going to let your team take the day off on occasion. The average pitcher has to go out and pitch in the context of that game. In the end the numbers end up being what the numbers are and they change from year to year.

Comparing Marcum to Correia... First off... The only thing I didn't like about the Correia signing was the 2nd year. 5 Million for an option(pitcher) seems to be the going rate for Free Agents. If the Option (Correia) fails which is possible. He still gets another year... The whole idea of quantity is being able to move away from guys that don't get the job done. That makes the 2nd year confusing to me.

Maybe it was a case of it taking a 2nd year to land him. Maybe TR has a lot of lines in the water with no bites so he said OK to the 2nd year to actually pull in a fish instead of coming home empty. I don't know.

But Back to comparing Marcum to Correia... Yes... Statistically Marcum has been the better pitcher of the two. That's why I like Marcum for at least 3 years... He's been very consistent... But Game by Game... It's still a match up against the guy on the mound for the other team and then doing it again in the next start.

Neither Pitcher has the ability to shut down the other team consistently with elite stuff and neither pitcher is showing any evidence of being someone who isn't competing somewhat decently.

Another problem when it comes to chasing down those stats is this... It's a moving Target... You offer a contract to a guy with a 3.39 ERA and he shows up and throws a 4.20. Then you cut that guy loose and sign a guy with a 3.70 because he is looking better than the guy with a 4.20... And the 4.20 guy signs elsewhere and puts up a 3.50 the next year and the 3.70 guys is at 4.00. It's a lotta tail chasing.

Jackson gets 13 Million and Correia Gets 5. I don't know what Marcum is going to get but you are still spending money on shades of mediocrity... averageness.

We need options because we don't know what we are going to get from anyone in 2013... Including Diamond. Diamond might be a 4.88 and Deduno might be a 3.00. S

In a nutshell... Game by Game... All we should be asking for is pitchers who will compete against the other guy on the mound in the context of each game.

jokin
12-20-2012, 03:53 PM
Does Mickey Storey tickle your fancy? The 73-win Blue Jays plucked him off the waiver wire just yesterday. Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling these AAAA guys all offseason for almost nothing.

And right under TR's advantageously-positioned nose. Nothing to see here...move along...asleep at the wheel...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

jokin
12-20-2012, 04:01 PM
The lack of Lannan being thrown into the Span trade was evidence that Ryan did not think he was worth the arbitration price. That proved to be accurate with his low figure he signed for.

Waiver wire pickups are different than free agents. What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference? Essentially they have been fringe AAAA players. There are plenty of people complaining of the last bunch he signed.

Storey is one recent prospect that should have been a no-brainer. More guys than just prospects pop up on the waiver wire. Vargas, for example.

FWIW, Lannan has an incentive-based deal that puts him in the same price range as his projected arb number.

cmathewson
12-20-2012, 04:08 PM
Not one poster on this very long comment thread has said anything about the availability of pitching this offseason. Fact is, prices are very high and quality is very low. There are a handful of decent guys who would cost way more then they're worth. All others are back-of-the-rotation types. They could choose different guys in that class (not a fan of Corriea myself), but I don't have a problem with passing on the likes of Anibel Sanchez at 4/80.

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 04:17 PM
Do you see the prices getting any lower in the future?

jokin
12-20-2012, 04:18 PM
Like you I'm hoping they concentrate on the future, but they could've been better this year while getting a head start on the future instead of wasting time and money with guys like Correia.

This.

Why does TR remind me of the Argentine Admiral doing that cheap paint job on the ARA General Belgrano in 1982, just before the start of the Falkland Island war? (Note to TR, the drab paint job you're putting on the 2013 roster isn't doing anything to stop the torpedo attack from the Tigers and White Sox that sinks yet another Twins season )

jokin
12-20-2012, 04:29 PM
So you should ignore the tomorrows? OK Gibson or Pelfrey could be as good as Baker. They individually might pitch as much this year as Baker does. Worley as good as Feldman. DeVries, Deduno or Duensing as good as Vilanueva

I certainly didn't ignore the tomorrows. The original topic was the state of the starting staff for 2013. Baker, Gibson, Pelfrey, three sets of damaged goods, one with a demonstrably superior track record, Baker. Worley was acquired via a trade, so there was a significant roster cost involved. Villanueva vs.? Again, a MLB track record vs 3 crapshoot guys.

I repeat, now with the additional signing of Jackson (who I pointed out one year ago could have been signed for less than what the Cubs just gave him) the Cubs have assembled a FA starting rotation for today and tomorrow. The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

Nick Nelson
12-20-2012, 04:39 PM
Not one poster on this very long comment thread has said anything about the availability of pitching this offseason. Fact is, prices are very high and quality is very low. There are a handful of decent guys who would cost way more then they're worth. All others are back-of-the-rotation types. They could choose different guys in that class (not a fan of Corriea myself), but I don't have a problem with passing on the likes of Anibel Sanchez at 4/80.

That's the price of pitching in today's market, and it's not likely to get any better. If the Twins want to improve their staff before some of these prospects hopefully come up and make an impact, then overpaying is really their only choice. They have the money so I don't really see the downside. You failed to mention that these back-of-the-rotation types are also getting way more than they're worth.

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 04:40 PM
The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

Diamond? Berrios?

70charger
12-20-2012, 04:52 PM
This.

Why does TR remind me of the Argentine Admiral doing that cheap paint job on the ARA General Belgrano in 1982, just before the start of the Falkland Island war? (Note to TR, the drab paint job you're putting on the 2013 roster isn't doing anything to stop the torpedo attack from the Tigers and White Sox that sinks yet another Twins season )

I just got caught in a wikipedia tornado.

jokin
12-20-2012, 04:56 PM
Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

Lannan is 4 years younger than Correia and is flat out better than Correia (Correia had one relatively decent season- 4 YEARS AGO) and would have cost less besides. This isn't that hard.

jokin
12-20-2012, 04:58 PM
I just got caught in a wikipedia tornado.

Cmon 70s. I know you're old enough to remember that paint job.;)

jokin
12-20-2012, 05:00 PM
Diamond? Berrios?

Berrios probably not til 2016. Based on Diamond's 2nd half drop-off in performance, I still have doubts about his sustainability to remain as effective for 3 more years. (Hope I'm wrong)

70charger
12-20-2012, 05:11 PM
Cmon 70s. I know you're old enough to remember that paint job.;)

My car is older than I am. :p

ThePuck
12-20-2012, 05:12 PM
Berrios probably not til 2016. Based on Diamond's 2nd half drop-off in performance, I still have doubts about his sustainability to remain as effective for 3 more years. (Hope I'm wrong)


Doesn't mean Diamond won't be that 5th guy...he's not even arbitration eligible till 2015. He's gonna be around awhile

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 05:21 PM
I certainly didn't ignore the tomorrows. The original topic was the state of the starting staff for 2013. Baker, Gibson, Pelfrey, three sets of damaged goods, one with a demonstrably superior track record, Baker. Worley was acquired via a trade, so there was a significant roster cost involved. Villanueva vs.? Again, a MLB track record vs 3 crapshoot guys.

I repeat, now with the additional signing of Jackson (who I pointed out one year ago could have been signed for less than what the Cubs just gave him) the Cubs have assembled a FA starting rotation for today and tomorrow. The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

Jokin... Not to be a pain... But... Baker and Feldman were signed to one year deals... Villanueva for two... Jackson is only pitcher signed for 2015. TR went out got Worley... May and Meyer... I think it's no contest that the Twins have done more for the future.

And the point you make about hoping that Meyer and May don't blow their arms out. That isn't an exclusive hope for the Twins only... The Cubs are also hoping that Jackson and Vizcaino don't blow their arms out as well.

Dont get me wrong... I wanted Jackson as well... I'm now left to hope for Marcum... But don't you think you are over playing the Cubs a little.

jokin
12-20-2012, 05:23 PM
Doesn't mean Diamond won't be that 5th guy...he's not even arbitration eligible till 2015. He's gonna be around awhile

That's why I left that 5th spot open. I hope that Diamond is that 5th starter and pitching as effectively as he did in his first dozen starts in 2012, and that his numbers this year are 5th best of all the SPs in 2015. But, there's still a strong chance for statistical regression and an outside chance that this season was only a mirage (again, hope I'm way wrong).

jokin
12-20-2012, 05:40 PM
Jokin... Not to be a pain... But... Baker and Feldman were signed to one year deals... Villanueva for two... Jackson is only pitcher signed for 2015. TR went out got Worley... May and Meyer... I think it's no contest that the Twins have done more for the future.

And the point you make about hoping that Meyer and May don't blow their arms out. That isn't an exclusive hope for the Twins only... The Cubs are also hoping that Jackson and Vizcaino don't blow their arms out as well.

Dont get me wrong... I wanted Jackson as well... I'm now left to hope for Marcum... But don't you think you are over playing the Cubs a little.

Perhaps I am. But if any club had dug themselves a bigger hole than the Twins going into 2013, it was definitely the Cubs.

I agree, and applauded the fact, that TR finally addressed the situation, showed the willingness to take the short-term slings and arrows involved with blowing up some of the core and put the team on the logical and correct path to set sights on 2015.

But, I was addressing this topic based on the current state of the starting staff vis a vis a club in a similar predicament and I fail to see the benefit of the time spent and money wasted on things that do little to nothing (save Worley) to address the "fact" that we've now accepted and set our sights on 2015.

For the record, given the position that the Cubs and Twins are in, I endorse one-year deals on both quality and quantity. Signing a Haren-like SP to a one-year deal (very flip-worthy indeed) and Jackson to a multi-year as your 2 big signings would have been perfect, along with Pelfrey on another one year- and then the trade for Worley. That's the supposed $30M number- less 5 million- that was available for FA signings- minus Span's salary (13 + 13 +4 - 5.5 + .5 = 25M), so Ryan could actually still have come in well under $100M on the payroll and the rotation would have had a huge current upgrade with the future made more intact in the process.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 06:02 PM
Perhaps I am. But if any club had dug themselves a bigger hole than the Twins going into 2013, it was definitely the Cubs.

I agree, and applauded the fact, that TR finally addressed the situation, showed the willingness to take the short-term slings and arrows involved with blowing up some of the core and put the team on the logical and correct path to set sights on 2015.

But, I was addressing this topic based on the current state of the starting staff vis a vis a club in a similar predicament and I fail to see the benefit of the time spent and money wasted on things that do little to nothing (save Worley) to address the "fact" that we've now accepted and set our sights on 2015.

For the record, given the position that the Cubs and Twins are in, I endorse one-year deals on both quality and quantity. Signing a Haren-like SP to a one-year deal (very flip-worthy indeed) and Jackson to a multi-year as your 2 big signings would have been perfect, along with Pelfrey on another one year- and then the trade for Worley. That's the supposed $30M number- less 5 million- that was available for FA signings- minus Span's salary (13 + 13 +4 - 5.5 + .5 = 25M), so Ryan could actually still have come in well under $100M on the payroll and the rotation would have had a huge current upgrade with the future made more intact in the process.

I won't argue your last paragraph... I'll only say that I never expected the Twins to spend over ten million each on two pitchers. Not because they didn't have the money or were too cheap to do so... But because I can't think of too many teams that have in one off season.

I was hoping for just one ten million plus guy... One traded for cheap guy with talent... Maybe get lucky with a rule 5... And a bunch of Pelfrey types for competition.

I didn't get the rule 5 guy but I got the trade guy... We will sign at least one more FA... I'm hoping its Marcum. Roll the dice on a Harden or Webb to replace the rule 5 I didn't get and I'm good.

johnnydakota
12-20-2012, 06:31 PM
Jokin... Not to be a pain... But... Baker and Feldman were signed to one year deals... Villanueva for two... Jackson is only pitcher signed for 2015. TR went out got Worley... May and Meyer... I think it's no contest that the Twins have done more for the future.

And the point you make about hoping that Meyer and May don't blow their arms out. That isn't an exclusive hope for the Twins only... The Cubs are also hoping that Jackson and Vizcaino don't blow their arms out as well.

Dont get me wrong... I wanted Jackson as well... I'm now left to hope for Marcum... But don't you think you are over playing the Cubs a little.
Dont get me wrong , i hope the 3 pitchers Terry traded for all work out ,but Whorely Was #5 in Philly and has or had arm problems,and Mays had a great year in A ball but last year in AA his ERA was not good , hope this isnt a trend, move up a level and add 1.50 to his era... as for Meyers he is in A ball, lots can happen before he arrives, if EVER....

As for his off season signings, he wasted money , obtained nothing of value, not 1 of these players signed would another team trade for....so they are not an asset , He could have just as well flushed the money down the toilet...

That being said i hope Corriea and Pelfrey finish 1 and 2 in the cy young awards next year ...but the chances are?

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 06:55 PM
Dont get me wrong , i hope the 3 pitchers Terry traded for all work out ,but Whorely Was #5 in Philly and has or had arm problems,and Mays had a great year in A ball but last year in AA his ERA was not good , hope this isnt a trend, move up a level and add 1.50 to his era... as for Meyers he is in A ball, lots can happen before he arrives, if EVER....

As for his off season signings, he wasted money , obtained nothing of value, not 1 of these players signed would another team trade for....so they are not an asset , He could have just as well flushed the money down the toilet...

That being said i hope Corriea and Pelfrey finish 1 and 2 in the cy young awards next year ...but the chances are?

Arm problems with pitchers are like cavities on humans. A few manage to avoid them but not many.

No guarantees on Mays or Meyer... But the Twins had very little between Gibson and Berrios... Now they do... It was needed.

As for the wasted money... It happens all the time... Every team has wasted a **** load of money along the way... It's the cost of doing business but its best to wait until they pitch before you say it is wasted.

jokin
12-20-2012, 08:21 PM
I won't argue your last paragraph... I'll only say that I never expected the Twins to spend over ten million each on two pitchers. Not because they didn't have the money or were too cheap to do so... But because I can't think of too many teams that have in one off season.


The cost of playing has gone up, so it is ever more likely to happen. And, the risk is mitigated significantly if one of the two $10M+ guys is on a one-year deal. Wouldn't a move like that, as unlikely as it is for the Twins, be a big fan- and team-building statement move that this team is heading in a new direction?

The Cubs have now spent $29.5M on 4 starters (2 multi-year contracts) and $34.1M on pitchers when you count RP Fujikama (multi-year deal)
.

The Twins have spent $9M on 2 starters and shed themselves of two low-cost top defensive OFers to make way for 2015.

Of all the FA SPs, given the injury complications, I think I would take any of the Cubs 4 pitchers over the Twins 2 signees.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 09:17 PM
The cost of playing has gone up, so it is ever more likely to happen. And, the risk is mitigated significantly if one of the two $10M+ guys is on a one-year deal. Wouldn't a move like that, as unlikely as it is for the Twins, be a big fan- and team-building statement move that this team is heading in a new direction?

The Cubs have now spent $29.5M on 4 starters (2 multi-year contracts) and $34.1M on pitchers when you count RP Fujikama (multi-year deal)
.

The Twins have spent $9M on 2 starters and shed themselves of two low-cost top defensive OFers to make way for 2015.

Of all the FA SPs, given the injury complications, I think I would take any of the Cubs 4 pitchers over the Twins 2 signees.

With the Jackson signing... I'd have to put the Cubs off season over ours so far but... I've never been a this player over that player type. .

edavis0308
12-20-2012, 09:39 PM
At least the Cubs filled their rotation with some guys that can have some upside and get some strikeouts.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 10:40 PM
At least the Cubs filled their rotation with some guys that can have some upside and get some strikeouts.

Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs - it's more democratic.

Liriano K/9 9.59 ERA 5.34
Doubront 9.34 4.86
Lincecum 9.19 5.18
Happ 8.76 4.79
Norris 8.82 4.65
Arrieta 8.56 6.20

Richard 4.40 3.99
Diamond 4.68 3.54
Hudson 5.13 3.62
Quintana 5.35 3.76
Colon 5.38 3.43
Harrison 5.61 3.29

Feldman Baker Viilenueva Jackson Upside? Maybe... We will see. You could be right... You maybe right on three or two or one... Maybe none..

I think the Cubs have a plan and everything looks sensible to me so far. I'm not knocking the Cubs... Time will tell.

edavis0308
12-20-2012, 10:55 PM
If the Cubs aren't good, they have some guys with trade value. Also, our defense better improve significantly or our soft tossin' groundball staff is In for a world of hurt (though the crash Davis ref is appreciated). They may have paid more for their pickups than we did.. but they ended up with better assets.

Riverbrian
12-20-2012, 11:40 PM
If the Cubs aren't good, they have some guys with trade value. Also, our defense better improve significantly or our soft tossin' groundball staff is In for a world of hurt (though the crash Davis ref is appreciated). They may have paid more for their pickups than we did.. but they ended up with better assets.

I'm with ya on the Defense. When I think about Twins Baseball... It's the defensive side of the game for the past few years that seems Un-Twins like. It's probably why I liked Revere as much as I did and couldn't stand Delmon Young and Danny Valencia. I still think the ball that was got to... That shouldn't have been gotten to... Is the most exciting thing in baseball and I think it gives your team a boost. I want that back.

old nurse
12-21-2012, 12:55 AM
Haha on the Lannan incentives. He might make 2 of the incentives. To reach arb value would mean he has pitched more games than he ever has as well as 60 more innings. For what Storey does the Twins have a better version in the bullpen called Duensing.

snepp
12-21-2012, 01:14 AM
For what Storey does the Twins have a better version in the bullpen called Duensing.

Did Storey become a low-k left-hander that excels primarily at getting left-handed hitters out?


You do realize the two have almost nothing in common as pitchers, right?

Shane Wahl
12-21-2012, 01:15 AM
The Cubs have done well. They have been aggressive and--outside of the Feldman signing--didn't settle for junk. Feldman, Correia, and Lannan are all the same--bad.

Jackson settling in at some place should be good for him and he should improve. A healthy Baker fits right in at the 3 spot. Villanueva is great low risk/high reward guy for the 4 spot. And then there's Feldman. They still are the Cubs.

The Twins have part of that equation filled. They have the two pitchers who are legitimate (ala Baker and Villanueva), and they certainly have 4-7 pitchers contending to be Feldman. The key early on is simply going to be Hendriks and some one of Deduno/DeVries/Walters. Pelfrey isn't going to be ready, Correia sucks, and Gibson should not be used early at all outside of 3-5 inning starts in Rochester until June.

jokin
12-21-2012, 08:44 AM
The Cubs have done well. They have been aggressive and--outside of the Feldman signing--didn't settle for junk. Feldman, Correia, and Lannan are all the same--bad.

Jackson settling in at some place should be good for him and he should improve. A healthy Baker fits right in at the 3 spot. Villanueva is great low risk/high reward guy for the 4 spot. And then there's Feldman. They still are the Cubs.

The Twins have part of that equation filled. They have the two pitchers who are legitimate (ala Baker and Villanueva), and they certainly have 4-7 pitchers contending to be Feldman. The key early on is simply going to be Hendriks and some one of Deduno/DeVries/Walters. Pelfrey isn't going to be ready, Correia sucks, and Gibson should not be used early at all outside of 3-5 inning starts in Rochester until June.

I know it's personal preference, but I like Baker over 2 comps and Villanueva by a nose over his comps. The trouble with your analogy for Feldman is I already used up your "sucks" comp on Correia, Feldman is better by a nose.

Where's our comp for Jackson again? And we paid a high price to get Worley, one the Cubs didn't have to expend.

old nurse
12-21-2012, 08:59 AM
When did Story become more than a 40th person on a roster?

SweetOne69
12-21-2012, 09:20 AM
The current roster is projected to be around $80M. That means the Twins have plenty of money available to sign Marcum, Saunders, Brett Myers, or Erik Bedard and still get infield help.

old nurse
12-21-2012, 09:29 AM
The current roster is projected to be around $80M. That means the Twins have plenty of money available to sign Marcum, Saunders, Brett Myers, or Erik Bedard and still get infield help.
What infield help is out there to get as a free agent?

beckmt
12-21-2012, 09:29 AM
Twins have plenty of outfielders coming. Cubs have added some pitching and have not fixed their offensive or defense. I expect a couple of more low risk, high reward signings of starters and then see what sticks. (Harden hopefully)

nicksaviking
12-21-2012, 09:51 AM
Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs - it's more democratic.

Liriano K/9 9.59 ERA 5.34
Doubront 9.34 4.86
Lincecum 9.19 5.18
Happ 8.76 4.79
Norris 8.82 4.65
Arrieta 8.56 6.20

Richard 4.40 3.99
Diamond 4.68 3.54
Hudson 5.13 3.62
Quintana 5.35 3.76
Colon 5.38 3.43
Harrison 5.61 3.29

Feldman Baker Viilenueva Jackson Upside? Maybe... We will see. You could be right... You maybe right on three or two or one... Maybe none..

I think the Cubs have a plan and everything looks sensible to me so far. I'm not knocking the Cubs... Time will tell.

Crash was wrong; that was '80's baseball, this is a new century. The consistant contenders find 4 starters who can manage a K/9 +7.0, just ask the Tigers, Giants, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, White Sox and Nationals.

It's simple, if the batter doesn't make contact, you take errors, Texas Leaguers, seeing eye singles, sacrafice hits, Steve Bartman, Milton Bradley throwing the ball into the stands with 2 outs, Jose Canseco trying to catch a popup with his head and seagulls taking a crap on the ball out of the equation and prevent a lot of unneccessary runs.

This thread's depressing, can we rename it "State of the Starting Corpse"?

Riverbrian
12-21-2012, 01:32 PM
Crash was wrong; that was '80's baseball, this is a new century. The consistant contenders find 4 starters who can manage a K/9 +7.0, just ask the Tigers, Giants, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, White Sox and Nationals.

It's simple, if the batter doesn't make contact, you take errors, Texas Leaguers, seeing eye singles, sacrafice hits, Steve Bartman, Milton Bradley throwing the ball into the stands with 2 outs, Jose Canseco trying to catch a popup with his head and seagulls taking a crap on the ball out of the equation and prevent a lot of unneccessary runs.

This thread's depressing, can we rename it "State of the Starting Corpse"?

In the end... an out is an out... But I love this post... The use of Bartman... Conseco and Seagulls was well done.

USAFChief
12-21-2012, 02:33 PM
In the end... an out is an out...

Actually, an out is NOT an out. That's kind of the point.

Brock Beauchamp
12-21-2012, 03:26 PM
In the end... an out is an out... But I love this post... The use of Bartman... Conseco and Seagulls was well done.

1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

Riverbrian
12-21-2012, 03:49 PM
1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

LOL... It's stuff like this that makes Twins Daily such a special place. Good Solid Information...

If I understand this correctly... So what you are saying is... There is a benefit to putting the ball in play. Unless it's Ben Revere... With Ben... his ability to put the ball in play doesn't count... I think I understand now. (that was a joke!!!)

Another question... When the Batter Steps into that chalk outline thing... Does he have to wait until the pitch is thrown or can he just run toward the base?

Shane Wahl
12-21-2012, 03:54 PM
So RB, is an out an out, or not?

TheLeviathan
12-21-2012, 04:07 PM
Another question... When the Batter Steps into that chalk outline thing... Does he have to wait until the pitch is thrown or can he just run toward the base?

You seem to have missed the part where that obvious information was necessary because you said something incredibly ignorant.

Riverbrian
12-21-2012, 04:11 PM
So RB, is an out an out, or not?


OMG... I don't know anymore.

Riverbrian
12-21-2012, 04:11 PM
You seem to have missed the part where that obvious information was necessary because you said something incredibly ignorant.

**** OFF... Scratch that... Merry X-mas...

70charger
12-21-2012, 04:19 PM
So RB, is an out an out, or not?

It is, except when it's not. Then it isn't. But it might have been.

Boom Boom
12-21-2012, 04:24 PM
An out is an out.

To a pitcher, some outs are better than others.

Buck Nasty
12-21-2012, 04:27 PM
1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

True. But you can record an out with one pitch and a strike out takes a minimum of 3 (usually many more). Also you can record 2 outs when a ball is put in play (i.e. grounder to short) far more often than a strike out/throw out. In a nutshell, it's ok to have a pitcher go 8 innings with 3 or 4 stikeouts vs. say a Liriano racking up K's but throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings.

diehardtwinsfan
12-21-2012, 05:02 PM
True. But you can record an out with one pitch and a strike out takes a minimum of 3 (usually many more). Also you can record 2 outs when a ball is put in play (i.e. grounder to short) far more often than a strike out/throw out. In a nutshell, it's ok to have a pitcher go 8 innings with 3 or 4 stikeouts vs. say a Liriano racking up K's but throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings.

The problem with this is that usually you won't make it 8 innings with only 3 or 4 Ks. That many balls in play extends innings which means more pitches thrown. There's a healthy balance here, but don't underestimate the value of strike outs... especially when the defense behind the pitcher isn't very good.

Brock Beauchamp
12-21-2012, 05:15 PM
True. But you can record an out with one pitch and a strike out takes a minimum of 3 (usually many more). Also you can record 2 outs when a ball is put in play (i.e. grounder to short) far more often than a strike out/throw out. In a nutshell, it's ok to have a pitcher go 8 innings with 3 or 4 stikeouts vs. say a Liriano racking up K's but throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings.

True, except that guys who K 3-4 batters rarely go 8+ innings. Strikeouts don't have to consume a ton of pitches and Liriano's control problems aren't indicative of a typical strikeout pitcher.

Every time the ball is put in play, there is approximately a 30% chance that the batter will reach base safely. Allowing a full 1/3rd of hitters to reach base safely when contact is made outweighs any additional pitches a strikeout pitcher may have to throw (and the chances of runners scoring are drastically higher with men on base regularly). There's a reason why pitchers who strike out guys tend to have better ERAs than pitchers who do not strike out guys (Liriano being a quite notable exception). Not only do they miss bats with their pitches but when contact is made, it's generally weaker (because if you often miss bats, chances are that when a batter finally puts the bat on the ball, it won't be solidly).

nicksaviking
12-21-2012, 08:18 PM
True, except that guys who K 3-4 batters rarely go 8+ innings. Strikeouts don't have to consume a ton of pitches and Liriano's control problems aren't indicative of a typical strikeout pitcher.

Every time the ball is put in play, there is approximately a 30% chance that the batter will reach base safely. Allowing a full 1/3rd of hitters to reach base safely when contact is made outweighs any additional pitches a strikeout pitcher may have to throw (and the chances of runners scoring are drastically higher with men on base regularly). There's a reason why pitchers who strike out guys tend to have better ERAs than pitchers who do not strike out guys (Liriano being a quite notable exception). Not only do they miss bats with their pitches but when contact is made, it's generally weaker (because if you often miss bats, chances are that when a batter finally puts the bat on the ball, it won't be solidly).

The ERA is often lower for strikeout pitchers, but that's just the bonus. The true benefit is the fewer UNEARNED runs they give up due to the fewer chances they give the defense to screw up. If anything we should find a higher ERA for a strikeout pitcher acceptable seeing as they are preventing unearned runs. Giving up runs loses games earned or not.

old nurse
12-22-2012, 01:38 AM
1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

from Dr. Mike Marshal retired pitcher


" I determined that the Correlation Coefficient between Earned Run Average (ERA) and Strikeouts per Game (Ks/9) is -0.22. The negative number only means that we listed earned run average (ERA) from low to high and strikeouts (Ks/9) from high to low. That the correlation between earned run average (ERA) and strikeouts per game (Ks/) is -0.22 means that strikeouts do not significantly measure the quality of baseball pitchers."

He did find that low walk ratios do not correlate to low ERA but a high walk ratio does correlate to higher ERA.

The conclusion he came up with was
" In conclusion, I believe that these statistics indicate that, if it means that baseball pitchers challenge themselves to throw tougher pitches in tough situations, such that they give up fewer hits and extra base hits, it is better for baseball pitchers to walk a few more batters."

nicksaviking
12-22-2012, 08:37 AM
from Dr. Mike Marshal retired pitcher


" I determined that the Correlation Coefficient between Earned Run Average (ERA) and Strikeouts per Game (Ks/9) is -0.22. The negative number only means that we listed earned run average (ERA) from low to high and strikeouts (Ks/9) from high to low. That the correlation between earned run average (ERA) and strikeouts per game (Ks/) is -0.22 means that strikeouts do not significantly measure the quality of baseball pitchers."

He did find that low walk ratios do not correlate to low ERA but a high walk ratio does correlate to higher ERA.

The conclusion he came up with was
" In conclusion, I believe that these statistics indicate that, if it means that baseball pitchers challenge themselves to throw tougher pitches in tough situations, such that they give up fewer hits and extra base hits, it is better for baseball pitchers to walk a few more batters."



Of course from that quote, it sounds like he measures the quality of a pitcher solely on ERA. I'd be more interested in the correlation between K/9 and a teams winning percentage.

nicksaviking
12-22-2012, 09:08 AM
Just by going off last years numbers on fangraphs, I found only one team in the top ten in team K/9 had a losing record and only three in the bottom ten had winning records. Meanwhile five of the top ten teams in groundball percentage had losing records and five of the bottom ten had winning percentages. At the very least, lasts years numbers indicate the Twins approach of seeking groundball pitchers is pointless.

Riverbrian
12-22-2012, 09:20 AM
I'm not knocking strikeouts. K's do not have to be defended from the likes of me.

I love K's especially when there is a runner on third and one out.

I know that there is a correlation between Increased K's and lower ERA's... I wouldn't have to look it up to know it... It would stand to reason... because you can just lop the whiffs off the percentages of what happens when contact is made. That isnt hard to grasp. Its an advantage that the low K guys have to overcome.

However... Its a statistical correlation with multiple outliers. I guess I should have just said that to make my point... But it was more fun to quote Crash Davis.

There are different types of outs. Some better than others... But yeah... An out is an out... Get 3 of them and you get to sit down.

diehardtwinsfan
12-22-2012, 10:55 AM
Look, rotations need both types of pitchers. Inning eaters have value in that they essentially eat innings. My concern is the unhealthy value that Ryan places on the innings eaters. Having 5 clones up on the mound helps opposing teams over a series because they just saw the same pitcher yesterday... and having a few high K guys at the front of the rotation makes a huge difference come playoff time. If I had an ideal rotation, it would be 3 number 1/2 type pitchers and 2 guys to round out the rotation who will get 200 plus innings as a 4/5 type guy. Those guys help keep the pen fresh and the team as a whole over the season. Come playoff time, you need the K guys.

old nurse
12-22-2012, 11:33 AM
.
Would not a lower ERA mean your team has a better chance of winning? From his data and final conclusion the quality pitcher can make the tougher pitch to hit. Sometimes it will be a strike, sometimes a ball, but the end result if it is hit is less damaging. If you want to go a better correlation on winning then take a look at the top 10 lowest era teams. All but the Mariners had winning records. The Mariners offense was among the worst. The key for ground balls to be effective outs is to have low on base percentage and high range infielders.

old nurse
12-22-2012, 11:44 AM
Just by going off last years numbers on fangraphs, I found only one team in the top ten in team K/9 had a losing record and only three in the bottom ten had winning records. Meanwhile five of the top ten teams in groundball percentage had losing records and five of the bottom ten had winning percentages. At the very least, lasts years numbers indicate the Twins approach of seeking groundball pitchers is pointless.

02-10. gb %.



1
T (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=12&rost=0&age=0)B.











40.7 %




.1


2
S (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0)ea.











41.8 %







3
L (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0)AA.











41.8 %




178.3


4
Twins (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0)











42.3 %




189.




K9






1
Cub (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0)






8.02









162.0


2
Astro (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=21&rost=0&age=0)






7.28









141.2


3
L (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=22&rost=0&age=0)AD






7.23









151.4


4
A (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=15&rost=0&age=0)riz.






7.23









168.

old nurse
12-22-2012, 11:47 AM
Just by going off last years numbers on fangraphs, I found only one team in the top ten in team K/9 had a losing record and only three in the bottom ten had winning records. Meanwhile five of the top ten teams in groundball percentage had losing records and five of the bottom ten had winning percentages. At the very least, lasts years numbers indicate the Twins approach of seeking groundball pitchers is pointless.

Had to truncate as much as possible. Of the K/9 teams, only the Dodgers had a winning record, For the ground ball teams, the Twins and Angels were top 5 in wins through that period.

snepp
12-22-2012, 01:42 PM
Baseball Prospectus Basics
(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617) (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617)Just Another Out? (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617)
Where the value of "just putting the ball in play" has often been overstated for hitters, the opposite has long been the case for pitchers. In their case, a strikeout is most definitely not "just another out." In fact, the ability to create outs for one's self is among the most important skills a pitcher can possess.


Why? There are a number of reasons, but mainly it's because more strikeouts mean fewer balls in play. Fewer balls in play mean (on average) fewer hits surrendered. And with fewer hits surrendered come fewer runs allowed. The steps aren't perfect, mind you, but on a macro level they hold up. The following graph illustrates the correlation between individual strikeout rate and ERA from 1993-2002:




This is just one of many sources highlighting the strong correlation between strikeout rate and runs allowed.

old nurse
12-22-2012, 02:20 PM
Baseball Prospectus Basics
(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617)

Just Another Out? (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617)




This is just one of many sources highlighting the strong correlation between strikeout rate and runs allowed.

As you can see by the round, lifeless blob in the middle of the graph, there is virtually no positive correlation between a team's strikeout totals and its runs-scored totals. When it comes to offense, an out is an out is an out.
On an individual level, the evidence against strikeouts as the scourge of the earth only gets more damning. Check out the correlation between Ks and the various elements of offensive production:
Correlation of SO/PA with (all players 1950-2002, 300+ PA)

Metric Correlation----------------------ISO +0.388SLG +0.198BB/PA +0.125OBP -0.100AVG -0.290OPS +0.106MLVr +0.005

Same article says as a batter if you strike out it is no big deal.

edavis0308
12-22-2012, 02:39 PM
So if an out is an out, are a productive and an unproductive out the same thing?

snepp
12-22-2012, 02:46 PM
As you can see by the round, lifeless blob in the middle of the graph, there is virtually no positive correlation between a team's strikeout totals and its runs-scored totals. When it comes to offense, an out is an out is an out.
On an individual level, the evidence against strikeouts as the scourge of the earth only gets more damning. Check out the correlation between Ks and the various elements of offensive production:
Correlation of SO/PA with (all players 1950-2002, 300+ PA)

Metric Correlation----------------------ISO +0.388SLG +0.198BB/PA +0.125OBP -0.100AVG -0.290OPS +0.106MLVr +0.005

Same article says as a batter if you strike out it is no big deal.

We're not talking about offense.

Pitchers, we're talking about pitchers, not hitters.

Hitting is not pitching, they are not the same thing.

Strikeouts don't matter all that much for hitters, the people we're not talking about.

Strikeouts matter for pitchers, a lot, the people we're talking about here.

Riverbrian
12-22-2012, 03:08 PM
There is going to be a correlation between strikeouts and ERA. It stands to reason because any strikeout removes the possibility of the normal percentages of bad result from the batted ball. The Law of Large numbers theorum is going to make that happen and we are powerless to stop it.

There is a much larger correlation between WHIP and ERA.
2943


There is also a correlation between players 27 to 29 and peak performance. That will suggest we field nothing but players in that age range.

However... There are way too many outliers to consider when looking at these correlations.

I'm guessing that the Cubs have had a better off-season thus far. Finding a guy who gets a few K's is nice to have but it will only get a portion of my attention.

Riverbrian
12-22-2012, 03:14 PM
I apologize for the superflous graphs... I can't figure out how to remove the attachments on the bottom.

Kwak
12-22-2012, 04:26 PM
Well, there we have it!--The fewer baserunners allowed per inning, the lower the ERA--and people thought this was quantum theory. A graph of OPS vs ERA likely has an even higher correlation than WHIP vs ERA, but sorry I don't have that information.

stringer bell
12-22-2012, 08:42 PM
Overall, I think Ryan has done an okay job this offseason dealing with the biggest minus on the 2012 team--the starting staff. While they didn't bring in marquee names, they brought in guys who might achieve something if healthy (Harden, Pelfrey) and guys who figure to provide innings (Correia, Worley) and most importantly fortified prospects for the near future (Meyers, May).

TheLeviathan
12-22-2012, 09:33 PM
Overall, I think Ryan has done an okay job this offseason dealing with the biggest minus on the 2012 team--the starting staff. While they didn't bring in marquee names, they brought in guys who might achieve something if healthy (Harden, Pelfrey) and guys who figure to provide innings (Correia, Worley) and most importantly fortified prospects for the near future (Meyers, May).

The bulk of this good is in that last part. Which has nothing to do with the current rotation.

johnnydakota
12-22-2012, 10:44 PM
Well now that Ryan has solidified the 4th and 5 th spots in the rotation , we are right back where we started ,minus a centerfielder and a right fielder...

ThePuck
12-23-2012, 12:39 AM
ESPN did it's team power rankings...Twins are ranked 28th. This was the write-up:


'Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey ... what, Rich Robertson and Sean Bergman weren't available?'

old nurse
12-23-2012, 12:42 AM
We're not talking about offense.

Pitchers, we're talking about pitchers, not hitters.

Hitting is not pitching, they are not the same thing.

Strikeouts don't matter all that much for hitters, the people we're not talking about.

Strikeouts matter for pitchers, a lot, the people we're talking about here.


If the prime objective of offense is to score runs and stikeouts do not inhibit run production by the numbers, then why should it matter if the pitcher has a strikeout? It can't be both ways. It was your article.

By Riverbrian's graphs that much spread in the K9 pattern would suggest there is low correlation k/9 to era. Dr Marshall when he studied it found the correlation to be .22, ie low.
http://www.drmikemarshall.com/ILoveStrikeoutsHateHitsandExtraBaseHitsandDoNotMin dWalks.html

Also strikeouts per plate appearance is different than k/9. Again, they drew a line, but what was the reliability? It looks blob like at the low end.

edavis0308
12-23-2012, 10:12 AM
I'd be curious to know how team fielding percentage effects each slope.

TheLeviathan
12-23-2012, 04:59 PM
'Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey ... what, Rich Robertson and Sean Bergman weren't available?'

Yeah, that zinger hurts. And is spot on.

Reginald Maudling's Shin
12-23-2012, 07:43 PM
Projecting the Twins pitching starts with a bottle of Jack.
...and ends with a Nikki Sixx-style heroin induced coma.

70charger
12-24-2012, 08:41 AM
...and ends with a Nikki Sixx-style heroin induced coma.

Oh yeah,
Kickstart my heart,
Give it a start,
Oh, yeah, baby!

Brandon
12-24-2012, 09:23 AM
Overall TR has done a solid job putting the team ia a position to be .500 next year and even better in the future. The only 2 disappointments I have is that TR hasn't gone out and got at least 1 solid pitcher like Jackson who would still be a part of the rotation when we are a competetive team again. in 2014 we could have a rotation of players who all make the minimum but Worely who will be 1rst time arbitration eligible. We could afford almost any pitcher in that scenario and the rotation is likely to remain inexpensive in 2015 and 2016. While I believe the Twins will resign Morneau, there doesn't seem to be a huge increase comming in the forseeable future on the offensive side of the game either. SO we could have afforded a 12-15 million per year pitcher. The other thing that bugs me is the 2nd year of Corriea's contract. I hope we will be able to trade him next offseason. I do like the prospects the Twins picked up, and I think Harden will make a good setup man.

jokin
12-24-2012, 10:30 AM
Overall TR has done a solid job putting the team ia a position to be .500 next year and even better in the future. The only 2 disappointments I have is that TR hasn't gone out and got at least 1 solid pitcher like Jackson who would still be a part of the rotation when we are a competetive team again. in 2014 we could have a rotation of players who all make the minimum but Worely who will be 1rst time arbitration eligible. We could afford almost any pitcher in that scenario and the rotation is likely to remain inexpensive in 2015 and 2016. While I believe the Twins will resign Morneau, there doesn't seem to be a huge increase comming in the forseeable future on the offensive side of the game either. SO we could have afforded a 12-15 million per year pitcher. The other thing that bugs me is the 2nd year of Corriea's contract. I hope we will be able to trade him next offseason. I do like the prospects the Twins picked up, and I think Harden will make a good setup man.1) By "next year", you do mean 2014, right?

2) Kevin Correia will make $5.5M in 2014.

3) If one of the SP lotto picks hits, they would be asking for a huge raise/arbitration/Free Agency for 2014.

4) There is nearly infinitesimal likelihood that a Correia trade will derive any benefit to the Twins except salary relief.

5) The odds are nearly the same for TR to ever contemplate the signing of a top-end SP on a long-term deal.

Jim Crikket
12-24-2012, 11:18 AM
Overall TR has done a solid job putting the team ia a position to be .500 next year and even better in the future. The only 2 disappointments I have is that TR hasn't gone out and got at least 1 solid pitcher like Jackson who would still be a part of the rotation when we are a competetive team again. in 2014 we could have a rotation of players who all make the minimum but Worely who will be 1rst time arbitration eligible. We could afford almost any pitcher in that scenario and the rotation is likely to remain inexpensive in 2015 and 2016. While I believe the Twins will resign Morneau, there doesn't seem to be a huge increase comming in the forseeable future on the offensive side of the game either. SO we could have afforded a 12-15 million per year pitcher. The other thing that bugs me is the 2nd year of Corriea's contract. I hope we will be able to trade him next offseason. I do like the prospects the Twins picked up, and I think Harden will make a good setup man.

Sorry, Brandon (and others who have expressed similar sentiments), I simply could not disagree more strongly. Getting Worley in the Revere deal was fine and the two prospects he got in the trades were certainly needed for the future, but Ryan has simply not done near enough to improve the 2013 rotation. Salary is certainly not the be-all and end-all of evaluating pitching talent, but it certainly is one measuring stick. That being the case, consider this "bad news and worse news":

Bad news: Absent an unexpected significant addition to the rotation (e.g. Shawn Marcum), the entire Twins rotation will be making about $10 million in 2013 and Kevin Correia is likely to be the highest paid member of that rotation.

Worse news: Even Correia will still be paid less money than Nick Blackburn in 2013.

Everyone inside and outside of Twinsville knew the Twins HAD to significantly improve their rotation this offseason. Terry Ryan simply has failed to do so. Going from a rotation with one #4 starter and four guys who probably should not even be in a MLB rotation to one with two #4 starters and... maybe... two #5 starters, while narrowing the number of "should not be starters in a MLB rotation" to only one, is in no way a "significant" improvement. Especially when it comes at the same time you trade away the only two outfielders you had that could actually track down a ball in a gap.

Maybe Ryan will surprise us and still add a real pitcher to the rotation, but I'm not holding my breath. If not, then for the second consecutive year you have to give him an "F" grade in the "fix the rotation" subject. And without fixing the rotation, I can't possibly say he has improved the current team in any signficant manner.