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View Full Version : Article: Health Permitting, Pelfrey Could Deliver



Nick Nelson
12-16-2012, 10:34 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1261-Health-Permitting-Pelfrey-Could-Deliver

Jeremy Nygaard
12-16-2012, 10:45 PM
I've read the article Nick. And I've given you a little bit of my heart - as you can see - because I agree with you.

maxisagod
12-16-2012, 10:47 PM
Does he have any arbitration years left?

Jeremy Nygaard
12-16-2012, 11:01 PM
No. He's over five years of service, so he'll be a free agent after the season.

twinsfaninsaudi
12-16-2012, 11:08 PM
Another awesome signing!! And no I'm not joking. I <3 Terry Ryan!!!

SgtSchmidt11
12-16-2012, 11:21 PM
This is a far superior signing to the Correia signing, but that's not saying much...

frightwig
12-16-2012, 11:27 PM
Pelfrey was a 1st round pick... in 2005. But his career numbers aren't much different than Correia's marks.

Pelfrey career: 50-54, 4.36 ERA (92 ERA+), 4.50 xFIP, 5.08 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 (4.74 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 4.88 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 in 2011).

Correia career: 60-65, 4.54 ERA (88 ERA+), 4.44 xFIP, 6.01 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 (4.21 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 4.68 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 in 2012).

They're basically the same type and quality of pitcher (even if Pelfrey's arm is in shape... and we'll see about that). I like Correia a little better because of the question about Pelfrey's health, but also because Correia's control has been a bit better and his groundball rate has been higher, lately. I think there's a fair chance that either one of these guys could be a decent back-end, pitch-to-contact, groundball, 4.50 ERA pitcher. But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

spideyo
12-16-2012, 11:37 PM
We actually signed a Scott Boras client, so that's something

Shane Wahl
12-16-2012, 11:45 PM
A one-year deal is rarely wrong. But still 4 million? Weird. Anyway, I like adding Pelfrey sans Correia. Now I am a bit worried. Jurrjens is a good choice right now. The upside there is pretty substantial.

Shane Wahl
12-16-2012, 11:46 PM
I don't mind scraping the bottom if they make one mid-level acquisition. Scraping and then going for just above the scrapings (Correia) is not good at all.

Kwak
12-17-2012, 12:15 AM
"It's just a matter of who is going to emerge." Umm, I think there is a bit more to success than that. Farmers don't just buy seed and throw it on the ground to see what "is going to emerge."

glunn
12-17-2012, 12:49 AM
Nick, I think that you have done a great job laying this out, and let's all hope that Pelfrey pans out . I just wish that the Twins had at least one option year in case he is really good.

mako83
12-17-2012, 01:07 AM
Couldn't they have sign pelfrey before correria this feels like a make up signing. One more starter they need to get.

shs_59
12-17-2012, 02:09 AM
Don't love the move...don't hate it either....

would sure rather have paid baker the X-tra 1-2 Million needed compared to Pelfrey to Keep Scotty Baker himself.

But Pelfrey has more upside than Corriea, Blacky, Duensing, Hendriks, DeVries, and Deduno . The only exceptions i'd say are Gibson and Worley for the 2013 staff.

Now if AAron Hicks starts off in AAA .....for a minumum 3 months i'd be a happy guy heading into 2013...with maybe 1 more Pitcher and a little competition for T-Money Plouffe at 3B.

shs_59
12-17-2012, 02:12 AM
Pelfrey was once talked about as the centerpiece for the Johan Santana deal back in 2007 / 08 .

Instead we took Humber / Gomez/ Guerra and Mulvey.
But i remember preferring Pelfrey to at least Humber and possibly Mulvey as well. Turns out they're all basically the same pitcher with the exception of Mulvey and Guerra who look like quad A guys.

SCBackroads
12-17-2012, 05:59 AM
He certainly can log the innings. Also on the bright side, the Twins don't need to add a Tommy John surgery into the contract negotiations as a benny because he's already got one. [insert rim shot] As long as the search is not over for more, I approve of this signing.

PopRiveter
12-17-2012, 07:47 AM
I like this signing by itself, but in context, it is a bit of a reminder that Scot Baker wasn't re-signed. He's the one guy I wanted out of this group and he signed awfully cheap compared with the free-agent crop. He wasn't signed because someone thought they could do better. They couldn't.

JB_Iowa
12-17-2012, 08:35 AM
Good article, Nick. Taken by itself, there's nothing wrong with this signing and there does seem to be some potential for upside (of course, there's also potential for downside but that's the whole point of taking a flier).

It appears that Ryan's approach to building a starting staff is now the same as the Twins traditional approach to building a buillpen -- just get enough options and something will work out. It has worked most of the time for the Twins BP but there have been some notable exceptions. I guess we'll see whether it works for building a starting staff.

I just want to see some action on the remaining $15-$25m that is available to him this offseason. Either purchase some assets that might be helpful down the road or publicly commit to carrying over that money for future use. Either the team needs to abide by its own 50+% policy or they need to publicly acknowledge that they have abandoned it. No spin on this, Mr. St. Peter.

gunnarthor
12-17-2012, 09:04 AM
I guess I agree with most everyone else. It's not a bad signing and could work out but I'd like to see the FO do a little bit better, too.

I think our defense in center field will be good, no matter who gets the job out of ST. Mastro, Hicks and Benson should all be plus defenders out there. I'm assuming Carroll starts at second. I have no idea who gets the job at short but hopefully we have a glove guy up the middle, since I'm pretty sure he won't hit.

beckmt
12-17-2012, 09:18 AM
This is a decent signing. If he makes it fine, if he looks real bad the cost is not super high. Much better than Corriea

nicksaviking
12-17-2012, 09:36 AM
Another awesome signing!! And no I'm not joking. I <3 Terry Ryan!!!

Um, the other being Correia?

Winston Smith
12-17-2012, 09:51 AM
With a defense that may equal some of the poorest or porous (take your pick) in the league these kinds of pitchers don't seem like wise investments. Maybe it's time for Terry to find some guys that can catch the ball?

cmathewson
12-17-2012, 10:57 AM
This is like signing Scott Baker on the cheap. I've always liked him, despite the low K totals. At the very least, he and Gibson can tag team in their first full year back from TJ. And if he performs, they can extend him. Solid move. I'm still waiting for Ryan to sign a "pretty darn good pitcher," though.

Dilligaf69
12-17-2012, 11:20 AM
I don't mind it...I actually kind of forgotten about him. This is the kind of contract Correia should've gotten...oh well not my money. Hope Pelfrey works out.

by jiminy
12-17-2012, 02:14 PM
I agree with everything you say, Nick, and it's true -- it's a much better pickup than Kevin Correia.

But "better than a two-year, ten-million-dollar contract to a below average National League pitcher" is a pretty low standard to beat.

Shouldn't be be going for, "offers at least a chance of helping the Twins win, either now or in the future"?

DAM DC Twins Fans
12-17-2012, 02:51 PM
If you look at Pelfry's numbers--he seems to be a Brett Saberhagen type--a great year followed by a mediocre (at best one). He was great in 2008 and 2010--good ERA, 200 IP double digit wins. In 2009 he sucked with an ERA over 5. In 2011 he was slightly better. In 2012 he was hurt. His upside (2008 and 2010) is greater than anybody but Diamond. If we get that in 2013--fine--tell him thanks for the year and bring up Meyer. If we dont get that--he is gone costing about 5million. I like this,

ashburyjohn
12-17-2012, 03:48 PM
And if he performs, they can extend him.

This is the weak part of the signing; Boras is his agent. While I am no Boras-hater, I don't think the track record says a successful Pelfrey would sign for a team-friendly 2014 contract.

TheLeviathan
12-17-2012, 04:10 PM
But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

Exactly, I don't understand a number of the arguments being made here.

1) I thought Baker not having a team option in his deal was part of why it was a no-brainer not to sign him? This is totally brushed over when it was a central point in the Baker deal. Not to mention the fact that Pelfrey went in for TJ a full month later than Baker? If you read your response to this signing and Bakers you continue to have a lot of conflicting remarks.

2) Upside? Based on where he was drafted? C'mon...we're better than that right? Frightwig listed some damn fine statistics - Pelfrey's prospect listing 6 years ago and his draft position are not real sound places to hang your hat. He's not a bad pitcher, but that is pretty flimsy. For 1.5M more we would've gotten a clearly better pitcher who happened to do it against the AL, not the NL.

3) Durability? So apart from missing an entire season and likely not being ready until May of this one counts this in the positives? That's like saying my criminal record was fine except for that year I spent in jail for a bank robbery. Durability HAS to be a concern this first year, it's simply impossible to count that as a positive. If this were a two year deal I'd grant we might see it return in 2014...but in 2013? That is optimism with little to no basis for a guy that won't even be a year removed from major elbow surgery two months into the season.

LaBombo
12-17-2012, 04:15 PM
I agree with everything you say, Nick, and it's true -- it's a much better pickup than Kevin Correia.

But "better than a two-year, ten-million-dollar contract to a below average National League pitcher" is a pretty low standard to beat.

Shouldn't be be going for, "offers at least a chance of helping the Twins win, either now or in the future"?

+1. Looks like Ryan has lowered the bar enough with Correia that now we can look forward to the
"upside" of a guy released by a team that finished 11th in the NL in ERA and just traded away their best starter. Given their career 4.50-ish ERA's and the league switch, the Twins will be lucky if either of them manages an ERA much under 5.00.

On the other hand, Bill Smith lowered the GM bar so much that Ryan can hardly help but look like a genius.

Kwak
12-17-2012, 04:54 PM
Given the acquisition of the promised three starting pitchers apparently nicely under the "available budget" what is the likelihood a useful hitte is signed?

jimbo92107
12-18-2012, 01:07 AM
Yet another reason to bring up some young, fast outfielders.

nokomismod
12-18-2012, 03:26 PM
Totally agree Jimbo.
And has quantity ever been better than quality?

Nick Nelson
12-18-2012, 06:09 PM
Again with the Scott Baker crap Lev? It's time to move on. Not sure why you feel the need to relive the same argument every time any move is made.

I don't view Baker or Pelfrey as great fits for the Twins on one-year deals, but both are highly preferable to Correia's two-year deal. I wouldn't say my post was a ringing endorsement of this signing, more an observation that it makes a lot more sense than Ryan's first splash.

I will, however, say that Pelfrey is to me a more proven commodity than Baker. He has been healthy and good at the same time more often, despite being more than two years younger. His arm has held up FAR better than Baker's throughout his career. That's not irrelevant when you're talking about who's going to bounce back better from a major arm injury.

Also, their surgeries took place two weeks apart. It is a negligible difference.

TheLeviathan
12-18-2012, 06:19 PM
I wouldn't say my post was a ringing endorsement of this signing, more an observation that it makes a lot more sense than Ryan's first splash.

No, what you did was go positive on this signing in directly contradictory ways that you went negative on the Baker move. And you did some serious gymnastics to do it. I'm just calling you out on it, read your two blogs - they are basically Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde on the same points.

Baker has been a better pitcher in a tougher league, Pelfrey has been more durable. On a one year, "hope they rebound" deal - I'd personally defer to the better pitcher in that case. That doesn't change that your standards for "good deal/bad deal" totally flipped on their head. I don't mind Pelfrey, he's fine. But I was also fine with Baker for the very same reasons I'm fine with Pelfrey. You completely flipped on your own takes, I'm just calling you out on the consistency.

jokin
12-18-2012, 06:53 PM
No, what you did was go positive on this signing in directly contradictory ways that you went negative on the Baker move. And you did some serious gymnastics to do it. I'm just calling you out on it, read your two blogs - they are basically Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde on the same points.

Baker has been a better pitcher in a tougher league, Pelfrey has been more durable. On a one year, "hope they rebound" deal - I'd personally defer to the better pitcher in that case. That doesn't change that your standards for "good deal/bad deal" totally flipped on their head. I don't mind Pelfrey, he's fine. But I was also fine with Baker for the very same reasons I'm fine with Pelfrey. You completely flipped on your own takes, I'm just calling you out on the consistency.

I sense a pattern here. Nick seems to get his dual roles as a Twins fan and a baseball analyst faultily conflated, at times.

The only consistent thing that stands out about this signing is the recent pattern of warming up to Boras clients, conceivably Ryan is offering his services as a bridge contractor of Boras clients looking for a holding spot while waiting for a bigger payday down the road. Perhaps there is hope for some more Boras guys to get parked here short -term- Jurrjens, Lohse or....gulp.....Bourn?..... or take one of the above as tit-for-tat on signing the likes of Boras' lower-end stable of guys like Derek Lowe or Johnny Damon?

snepp
12-18-2012, 07:21 PM
Commenting on one of Nick's pitching related articles without digging into your bag of Duensing strawmen? You're slipping.

jokin
12-18-2012, 07:39 PM
Commenting on one of Nick's pitching related articles without digging into your bag of Duensing strawmen? You're slipping.

Pavlovian defensive response? You're not slipping.:go:

TheLeviathan
12-18-2012, 07:40 PM
Commenting on one of Nick's pitching related articles without digging into your bag of Duensing strawmen? You're slipping.

Why would Duensing be involved....did we trade for Pelfrey?

snepp
12-18-2012, 08:35 PM
Pavlovian defensive response? You're not slipping.:go:

At least you've stopped denying it, that's a start.

snepp
12-18-2012, 08:36 PM
Why would Duensing be involved....did we trade for Pelfrey?

No, but signing Pelfrey is just like making a trade.

:)

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-18-2012, 08:51 PM
Again with the Scott Baker crap Lev? It's time to move on. Not sure why you feel the need to relive the same argument every time any move is made.

Lev101 in a nutshell.

Nick Nelson
12-18-2012, 09:36 PM
No, what you did was go positive on this signing in directly contradictory ways that you went negative on the Baker move. And you did some serious gymnastics to do it. I'm just calling you out on it, read your two blogs - they are basically Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde on the same points.
So what you're saying is that Baker and Pelfrey are the same player, and therefore any differing analysis of the two signings must be an example of inconsistency?

I think I did a pretty thorough job of explaining my preference for Pelfrey's deal over Baker's in the initial response, which you apparently glossed over. Baker is a talented pitcher with upside who has rarely been reliable in his career. I think you're overvaluing him, a lot.

That doesn't mean I love Pelfrey. I don't think there's a huge difference between the two. The reason the article seemed so "positive" is because it was framed I thought pretty clearly against the Correia signing. As I've already said, I prefer both Baker and Pelfrey to Correia. Had Baker been signed a week after Correia, I probably would have had a similar "Well, at least this is an improvement" reaction. You could hardly come away from what I wrote thinking I'm excited about it.

And yes, obviously my perspective has been altered by all the money that's been thrown around since Baker signed. I imagine that's true for a lot of people.

TheLeviathan
12-18-2012, 10:09 PM
I think you're overvaluing him, a lot.

He's been better than Pelfrey as a major league pitcher. Dude, you cited when Pelfrey was drafted and his former prospect ranking. If you compare big league numbers - Baker has been better. And in the AL no less. If you'd like to contend differently, use stats. Many of the things you cited seemed like serious reaches to make your point. You compared him to Baker yourself in your post, because it's a very relevant comparison on many levels. You just seemed to cherry pick the positives here in contrast to cherry picking the negatives previously. I simply acknowledge there is a mixed bag for both. I come down favoring Baker significantly more because he has been a better major league pitcher. For a one year deal that's a better gamble IMO.

Pelfrey's biggest asset is durability, which would normally be a good thing if he was healthy. First year off a major injury neutralizes that for anyone. Putting "durability" as a positive in that mindset is pretty damn silly. Almost as silly as using draft position for a guy nearly 30 to cite potential.

Nick Nelson
12-18-2012, 11:29 PM
I still think you're drastically exaggerating the degree to which I was "cherrypicking the negatives" of Baker's contract, and you've yet to prove otherwise. I was surprised to see an unexceptional pitcher who'd never been able to string together two straight healthy seasons get over $5 million guaranteed off Tommy John. That's it.

LaBombo
12-19-2012, 01:50 PM
Health permitting, Pelfrey could deliver...pizza. With the league change an ERA of around 5 sounds about right. At least it's a one year deal.

The re-signing of Sanchez gives Detroit a rotation that our presumed 2013 'ace' Scott Diamond wouldn't make as the 5th man. Maybe now all but the most delusional 'Contend in 2013' people will finally be forced to move on.

jokin
12-19-2012, 01:55 PM
Health permitting, Pelfrey could deliver...pizza. With the league change an ERA of around 5 sounds about right. At least it's a one year deal.

The re-signing of Sanchez gives Detroit a rotation that our presumed 2013 'ace' Scott Diamond wouldn't make as the 5th man. Maybe now all but the most delusional 'Contend in 2013' people will finally be forced to move on.

Some have thrown in the towel, others have "moved on" to raise the volume level of their attack on the realists who told them so previously.

LaBombo
12-19-2012, 02:14 PM
Some have thrown in the towel, others have "moved on" to raise the volume level of their attack on the realists who told them so previously.

Did I really say "delusional"? Oops. I meant to say "wildly optimistic". It's less accurate but also much less negative. I think, anyway. And as someone who viewed 2013 as a rebuilding year before the 2012 season was over, I mostly gave up on arguing that point a while back...

USAFChief
12-19-2012, 03:04 PM
Health Permitting, Pelfrey Could Deliver


At the least, that should put a few butts in seats at TF. I didn't even know he was pregnant.

LaBombo
12-19-2012, 03:07 PM
Health Permitting, Pelfrey Could Deliver


At the least, that should put a few butts in seats at TF. I didn't even know he was pregnant.

Do we need to clear a spot on the 40 for that?

Willihammer
12-19-2012, 03:07 PM
Do they sell Jr mints at TF?

TheLeviathan
12-19-2012, 03:59 PM
Health permitting, Pelfrey could deliver...pizza. With the league change an ERA of around 5 sounds about right. At least it's a one year deal

You're totally not figuring in his prospect ranking from 7 years ago. Duh.

jun
12-19-2012, 04:03 PM
Don't love the move...don't hate it either....

would sure rather have paid baker the X-tra 1-2 Million needed compared to Pelfrey to Keep Scotty Baker himself.

But Pelfrey has more upside than Corriea, Blacky, Duensing, Hendriks, DeVries, and Deduno . The only exceptions i'd say are Gibson and Worley for the 2013 staff.

Now if AAron Hicks starts off in AAA .....for a minumum 3 months i'd be a happy guy heading into 2013...with maybe 1 more Pitcher and a little competition for T-Money Plouffe at 3B.

Pelfrey has more upside than Blackburn, Correia only. Hendriks and DeVries are younger. Duensing is a good bullpen guy and he is a lefty. Deduno has some good stuff, he could be effectively wild at times.

LaBombo
12-19-2012, 04:06 PM
You're totally not figuring in his prospect ranking from 7 years ago. Duh.

AND I forgot that he now has a super-hot girlfriend. So that should improve his ERA. Maybe somebody should invent a stat that factors out girlfriends so we can predict how the gain or loss of a girlfriend would affect pitching. GiP and xGiP?