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Hoss4476
12-16-2012, 06:59 PM
I think a lot of people seem to be overlooking him. I think he could still be a big part of our rotation. I know his time in the Majors last year didn't really impress anyone, but he had some good starts (including shutting out Detroit for 7 innings) and he had an outstanding year in Rochester. You would think some of the success could easily carry over to the majors eventually. He has a little more experience this year maybe he can surprise us.

Liam Hendriks Stats, Bio, Photos, Highlights | MiLB.com Stats | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=521230)

Liam Hendriks Stats, Video Highlights, Photos, Bio | twinsbaseball.com: Team (http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=521230#gameType=%27R%27&sectionType=gameLog&statType=2&season=2012&level=%27ALL%27)

edavis0308
12-16-2012, 07:17 PM
I'm not sure if its the fact that he is being overlooked so much as it is that we need to see him put things together at the major league level before you can rely on him for the whole year.

greengoblinrulz
12-16-2012, 07:20 PM
Huge believer in him.
Have no doubt he'll start season as #5 starter (if he's not dealt this offseason which was my prediction early).
Could be helped by having a better INF defense.....but Plouffe/Florimon are gonna be historically bad left side (one defense/one offensively)

Rick Niedermann
12-16-2012, 07:26 PM
I just don't see it. He has no out pitch. Doesn't overpower anybody. I never see him transitioning into anything more then a AAAA pitcher at best. We have plenty of those types already. I'd take my chances with PJ Walters or Sam Deduno before I'd pencil this guy into the rotation.

Hoss4476
12-16-2012, 07:38 PM
I just don't see it. He has no out pitch. Doesn't overpower anybody. I never see him transitioning into anything more then a AAAA pitcher at best. We have plenty of those types already. I'd take my chances with PJ Walters or Sam Deduno before I'd pencil this guy into the rotation.

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | DET@MIN: Hendriks shuts out Tigers over seven frames - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia (http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25224759&c_id=mlb)

I couldn't disagree with you more. In the minors he has shown control and command which if you put the ball wherever you want it in the zone that is an out pitch. His last start against Detroit was very good and he put on the black a few times for outs. He also has shown a decent amount of strikeouts in Rochester (82K's for 106.1 IP). I think he has shown he has command and control which definitely makes him better than a AAAA pitcher.

Brock Beauchamp
12-16-2012, 07:42 PM
I just don't see it. He has no out pitch. Doesn't overpower anybody. I never see him transitioning into anything more then a AAAA pitcher at best. We have plenty of those types already. I'd take my chances with PJ Walters or Sam Deduno before I'd pencil this guy into the rotation.

PJ Walters? Over Hendriks? Really?

You have to be joking. I don't think Hendriks will ever be a very good pitcher but at least he is 23 and has dominated the minors. That's more than Walters has ever done.

Riverbrian
12-16-2012, 07:54 PM
I think Hendriks just needs to get a few batters out... He needs to feel like he can pitch at the MLB level. Just my opinion... He seemed to be a little overwhelmed. Pitched a little scared... In my opinion.

I ain't over looking... I'm hopeful he puts it together and is locked in solid for 2014. For 2013... I think TR will bring in another pitcher and Hendriks will start in AAA... As the year goes forward... Rochester will be needed and up comes Gibson and Hendriks. When that time comes... I hope they grab the bull by the horns and cement themselves a major league career.

edavis0308
12-16-2012, 07:55 PM
Is Slowey a good comp for him, stats in the minors wise? I honestly don't remember specifics from Slowey's minor.league career.

Edit. I checked to compare AAA stats and WHIP, BB/9 and K/9 are pretty similar. I'm mobile so I can't really link to it.

nicksaviking
12-16-2012, 08:02 PM
I find it more likely Hendriks is a useful pitcher in 2013 than I do Correia or Pelfry. Though his intro into the AL was rough last year, his limited experience is still more than those two combined, and while he will not be a big strikeout pitcher, he will still miss a hell of a lot more bats than those two.

Physics Guy
12-16-2012, 08:02 PM
Is Slowey a good comp for him, stats in the minors wise? I honestly don't remember specifics from Slowey's minor.league career.

I'd say Slowey is a good comp:

Hendriks through Age 23 in the minors:
482IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 7.9/1.6 K9/BB9

Slowey (Age 28)
466.1, 2.45., 0.934, 8.4/1.4

Walters (Age 27 - really, you think he is better Rick?)
760.1, 4.06, 1.349, 8.4/3.1

Brock Beauchamp
12-16-2012, 08:08 PM
I find it more likely Hendriks is a useful pitcher in 2013 than I do Correia or Pelfry. Though his intro into the AL was rough last year, his limited experience is still more than those two combined, and while he will not be a big strikeout pitcher, he will still miss a hell of a lot more bats than those two.

Agreed. I'm not a big Hendriks fan but there's a chance he turns into Scott Diamond with a few more Ks (not many, just a few more).

Correia and Pelfrey, not so much.

Seth Stohs
12-16-2012, 08:18 PM
I'm a huge believer in Liam Hendriks. Having talked to him several times, he is very smart, great baseball IQ, knows how to pitch. I think he experiences a little struggle last year for the first time, and he probably over-thought. t kind of looked like that at least. He's got better control of three pitches than he showed in the big leagues last year. He's just got to relax.

The comp to Slowey is fair, and it shows how you just never know with any prospect. Slowey missed a lot of bats in the minors without walking people, and to this point, he's only had some big league success. There are a lot of pitchers having good MLB careers who didn't put up nearly the nmbers that Slowey or Hendriks have put up in the minors. So, you never know, but I will stand behind my thinking that Hendriks can be a solid #3 for years. If I'm wrong, so be it.

edavis0308
12-16-2012, 08:24 PM
Just for the record, the Slowey comparison was meant as a positive, not a slight. Dude put up solid numbers in the minors.

Fire Dan Gladden
12-16-2012, 08:36 PM
If he can eat innings effectively as a #3-4 that would be great. Need these guys as well (especially cheap, team controlled ones).

mike wants wins
12-16-2012, 08:37 PM
He should be up all year ....let's see what he has.

diehardtwinsfan
12-16-2012, 08:40 PM
Just for the record, the Slowey comparison was meant as a positive, not a slight. Dude put up solid numbers in the minors.

I still wonder what life for Slowey would have been like had he not been hit in the wrist by that liner... He looked like he was breaking out before that day...

70charger
12-16-2012, 11:26 PM
I was just thinking of starting this thread, and here it is. Good stuff.

I've been on record saying that I'm a believer in Hendriks. His minor league track record is outstanding, and he got his first taste of the bigs at only 22 years old. Of course there are no sure things in baseball, but I'll take that.

Besides, there were many pitchers who turned out well who struggled in their first taste of the show. Frank Viola (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/violafr01.shtml) ring a bell? He needs more time to put it all together, and we need more time to really know what we have. I think he should be making starts all year.

edavis0308
12-16-2012, 11:34 PM
I'm just crossing my fingers it's this year he puts it together. Not next year. We really need him to be aggressive and step up. He really is an ace in the hole for us.

Physics Guy
12-16-2012, 11:46 PM
I was just thinking of starting this thread, and here it is. Good stuff.

I've been on record saying that I'm a believer in Hendriks. His minor league track record is outstanding, and he got his first taste of the bigs at only 22 years old. Of course there are no sure things in baseball, but I'll take that.

Besides, there were many pitchers who turned out well who struggled in their first taste of the show. Frank Viola (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/violafr01.shtml) ring a bell? He needs more time to put it all together, and we need more time to really know what we have. I think he should be making starts all year.

I'm with you on hoping Hendriks is destined for better days. I believe I looked a few weeks back and saw similar numbers to Liam from Frankie V and Milton when they first came up. I just wish Gardy would give him the time that Kelly gave the other two. I'd say he has nothing to lose as most don't expect much from the Twins this year, but another bad season costs Gardy his job. I hope Liam gets out of the gates quickly this year.

Shane Wahl
12-16-2012, 11:50 PM
Hendriks will be good enough in the long-term as a 4 or 5 starter and decent enough in 2013 to be a fifth starter. He is simply going to get better. He has the brains and has the capability to be Diamond-esque to some degree. The same CANNOT be said for Correia or Blackburn. Pelfrey is interesting to me to some degree.

jorgenswest
12-16-2012, 11:53 PM
It takes great patience to develop young players. Numerous good pitchers struggled early in the majors. The solution is to let them struggle in the majors once they have shown reasonable success on the way up. Hendriks is not going to learn how to get major league hitters out in AAA.

The Twins can afford to be patient.

Shane Wahl
12-16-2012, 11:55 PM
Let's say that the signings are over!

Diamond
Worley
Correia (I guess)
Hendriks
Blackburn/Pelfrey/Deduno/DeVries/Walters

The fifth starter here is A: holding down the fort for Gibson to join the rotation if the Twins are smart and really limit his AAA innings until June, and B: serving as a replacement in case Correia or Hendriks falters. Correia WILL falter, unfortunately.

This is bad and is only moderately better than last year's April starters. This is terrifying.

greengoblinrulz
12-16-2012, 11:56 PM
In several Hendriks starts, I noticed he'd miss on a 3rd out strike on a questionable call and it would extend the inning 5-10-20 pitches. Other starts, Id notice a bad defensive play that wasnt ruled an errror but should have been made. As he gets more expereience & gets those close calls from umpires, he'll keep his pitch counts lower & use his control as his out pitch. I just thought he's had some bad luck along the way so far.
I think he's got a bit above average stuff but struggled mightily with confidence. He showed his stuff matching up with Felix & shutting down DET. I also think he struggled with the mindgames of getting his first win.
We shall see, but he's my 'under the radar' pick this season to break out.

twinsfaninsaudi
12-17-2012, 01:15 AM
I find it more likely Hendriks is a useful pitcher in 2013 than I do Correia or Pelfry. Though his intro into the AL was rough last year, his limited experience is still more than those two combined, and while he will not be a big strikeout pitcher, he will still miss a hell of a lot more bats than those two.

Pelfrey and Correua have probably pitched more inning against the AL than Hendricks. Probably more in AL parks too.

glunn
12-17-2012, 01:48 AM
I just don't see it. He has no out pitch. Doesn't overpower anybody. I never see him transitioning into anything more then a AAAA pitcher at best. We have plenty of those types already. I'd take my chances with PJ Walters or Sam Deduno before I'd pencil this guy into the rotation.

I saw him pitch in Anaheim last year and his lack of an out pitch was a major problem. I wish that he could develop one.

In contrast, almost everything that Deduno throws seems like it could be an out pitch, if only he would not walk so many people.

As for Walters, it seems to me that he just needs to elevate everything that he does, assuming that he is capable of that.

Falcon25
12-17-2012, 07:56 AM
Does anyone think that hendriks turned the corner in the last month? Statistically he lead the starters in ERA over the las month which included the Yankees outing. However, go back and watch that game pitch by pitch. Four poor pitches in the same spot with the same result which I am sure he won't do again. I thought he started to trust his stuff and was prepared to go inside and out to both left and right hand hitters which he wasn't doing consistently in his earlier appearances. His confidence I felt was growing. I like a number of other views think he has an upside but the proof will be if he can continue to improve and become consistent. Anyone know how his rehab is going?

johnnydakota
12-17-2012, 08:15 AM
Agreed. I'm not a big Hendriks fan but there's a chance he turns into Scott Diamond with a few more Ks (not many, just a few more).

Correia and Pelfrey, not so much.

Just remember the day Liam Squared off against King Felix....Im hoping and praying Hendriks is this years Diamond
the Twins need a break sometimes right?

Brandon
12-17-2012, 08:54 AM
Hopefully the Twins sign 1 more pitcher this offseason and have lots of competition for the rotation spots with Pelfry, Correia competing with Gibson, Hendricks, Dedunno, and Devries and I guess Blakburn for the last 2 spots. It would be nice if Blackburn came back with a new pitch to go with his sinker and started getting people out.

Since this is about Hendricks I will go on record that I believe he has the potential to be good but he has to earn the right to pitch in the rotation and if he can continue to show improvment with his opportunuties and consistantly get hitters out then yeah he could be a starter up here. but so far he has not been someone to count on till a couple of last september starts. I wouldn't want to bank on that for 2013. with several starts and a good season in AAA maybe. with the starters we are brining in so far. Pelfry and Gibson comming off of injuries and Correia with the potential to not be good should give Hendrick opportunites to come up and pitch. so maybe 2014 will be a better year to count on him.

beckmt
12-17-2012, 09:08 AM
I am not a believer in Henricks. Hard to tell on minor league stats, because you can avoid the 2 - 3 good hitters each club has in major situtations. Many major league clubs have 7-9 hitters that can hurt you. Hope he works out, but worried if he is a depended upon option. Note: Terry Ryan must agree as he is signing many pitchers to compete with Henricks for a spot in the bottom of the rotation.

Brock Beauchamp
12-17-2012, 09:14 AM
Just remember the day Liam Squared off against King Felix....Im hoping and praying Hendriks is this years Diamond
the Twins need a break sometimes right?

Given what JR has rounded up for a rotation in 2013, the Twins will need a productive Hendriks and Gibson sooner rather than later.

This is how I view the rotation right now:

1. Worley (great pick-up, should be a #3-ish guy)
2. Diamond (a #3-ish guy that is probably due for regression)
3. Pelfrey (not a bad pick-up but a little baffling in the wake of passing on Baker)
4. Correia (I'm just going to skip watching these games)
5. Scrub/Hendriks/Gibson (sigh... Hendriks and Gibson will have to pitch their way beyond the #5 spot early in the season or we're looking at another 90+ loss season)

3up3down
12-17-2012, 09:35 AM
niedermann..........finally someone sees it like i do....i have watched hendricks several times & i just dont see it either, as you said no out pitch, not overpowering, curve & change average at best & alot of those strike calls that go your way in AAA dont in the bigs...he is maybe a #5 in the NL or most likely a long man in the pen, no way he is the #5 in minnesota starting the season...as far as him or walters , you can compare there numbers all you want but put hendricks in the PCL for a while & watch those #s balloon.. if its a competition for the #5 spot between hendricks, walters, blackburn,deduno, devries then i think walters & blackburn are the favorites with blackburn having the edge because of the contract & he has been good before...walters was very good before his injury, if he is healthy & gets enough innings in ST it should be a very good competition.

70charger
12-17-2012, 10:19 AM
I'm with you on hoping Hendriks is destined for better days. I believe I looked a few weeks back and saw similar numbers to Liam from Frankie V and Milton when they first came up. I just wish Gardy would give him the time that Kelly gave the other two. I'd say he has nothing to lose as most don't expect much from the Twins this year, but another bad season costs Gardy his job. I hope Liam gets out of the gates quickly this year.

I think you're right about the Frank Viola comp. His first two MLB seasons, he was something like 5.5 ERA/1.5 WHIP, and then 5.5 ERA/1.6 WHIP. In Liam Hendriks first MLB season (not quite a full season, but ~20 starts), he was at 5.5 ERA/1.55 WHIP.

And I hope he gets out of the gate quickly too. The last thing we need is for him not to earn a chance. I think he could become a nice, cost-controlled #3 pitcher.

Dilligaf69
12-17-2012, 11:23 AM
He will certainly get the chance...would not suprise me at all if he was one of the five SP's out of ST.

Dilligaf69
12-17-2012, 11:27 AM
Twins definitely need to add one more SP.... and Hope one of Hendriks/PJ/Cole give them something... Pelfry can contribute by May and Gibson is in the bigs by June.

halfchest
12-17-2012, 01:51 PM
His age is really interesting to me and I think it is overlooked how young he is. He spent his Age 23 season in AAA/Majors and was dominant in AAA plus his second half in the majors wasn't that bad. He had a 4.4 ERA and mediocre peripherals but he dropped his hits per nine and his WHIP significantly while his K and BB rates remained stable. He showed improvement and that's what counts.

For comparison our two new shiny pitching prospects May and Meyer will both be 23 and likely spend the bulk of their years in AA this year. While yes they have nicer scouting reports and peripheral numbers they will be a full level to two levels below where Hendriks was at the same age. In addition Hendriks is an international prospect which, correct me if I'm wrong, they generally take longer to develop as well? If that's true it shows how well he's doing despite his age. I'm a believer in him as a nice 3-4 pitcher for years to come. Not likely to be a star but should be a solid contributor to the rotation. I'm excited about having him, Worley, and Diamond to be the guts of this rotation. Now just hoping 2 of Gibson,May, and Meyer can turn into 1-2 type talent.

Badsmerf
12-18-2012, 07:26 PM
Surprising the amount of Hendriks haters here. All of the comparisons are really not fair to Liam. Slowey was a big fly ball pitcher, almost twice as many as Liam. That makes a big difference. Liam will succeed, and I think things will start to click for him next year. He may not have a clear out pitch yet, but he's young and his curve has promise. He had this whole off-season to work of some of the issues he ran into last year and I expect it to show. He is the type of pitcher Rick Anderson can really help IMO. He'll go north with the Twins and I think he'll stick this time. Him and Plouffe are the players I really expect to give a boost to the Twins this year.

SpantheMan
12-19-2012, 09:55 AM
If the twins are smart Hendricks will break camp with the big league club. He has far more upside that any other option (besides Gibson) and he has nothing left to prove in the minors

Brock Beauchamp
12-19-2012, 10:14 AM
Surprising the amount of Hendriks haters here. All of the comparisons are really not fair to Liam. Slowey was a big fly ball pitcher, almost twice as many as Liam. That makes a big difference. Liam will succeed, and I think things will start to click for him next year. He may not have a clear out pitch yet, but he's young and his curve has promise. He had this whole off-season to work of some of the issues he ran into last year and I expect it to show. He is the type of pitcher Rick Anderson can really help IMO. He'll go north with the Twins and I think he'll stick this time. Him and Plouffe are the players I really expect to give a boost to the Twins this year.

Agreed. I think Hendriks has a floor of a #5 and a ceiling of a solid #3. I'm not as high on him as some but I'm definitely not a hater. He's exactly the type of guy Anderson can work with and turn into a serviceable guy.

Shane Wahl
12-19-2012, 10:39 AM
Instant gratification culture infects baseball prospect evaluation . . .

3up3down
12-19-2012, 10:52 AM
brock, i am definately not a hater, but sell me on hendricks, what i have seen is a hi 80s Fb with little movement, location average, curve below avg, chnage avg, slider below avg...the only thing i think he can improve on is his location & that will help tremendously & he had off season elbow surgery so he will not have a normal off season to work on things.. all the other pitchers that have been mentioned have atleast 1 plus pitch, blackburn , great sinker when he is right, deduno, nasty movement on all his pitches but can he fix it ??,gibson + FB with sink, walters + change , was rated the best in the cards org for yrs & he showed it when healthy last year..just my opinion you have to have atleast 1 plus pitch to be a consistent starter in the bigs & i simply dont see it with hendricks, hope i am wrong but i just dont think so..

StormJH1
12-19-2012, 11:08 AM
I'll give Hendriks a semi-"pass" for last year, given that he couldn't survive Baltimore cuisine, let alone his first start. But, no, it isn't good when you excel at multiple levels of the minors, and your first impression in the bigs is THAT bad.

Typically, pitchers who miss bats are still able to do that once they get to the majors, even if they also get shelled. Hendriks didn't really strike anyone out last year, AND he got shelled. You can say that his control might get better, but at 2.7 walks per 9, it's not like he was walking in runs last year. Baker walked 2.1 per 9 in his career, and Matt Cain walked 3.1 per 9 (though less in recent years). It'd be one thing if he was all over the place, but I just question whether his "stuff" is any good. But he still is quite young, so he'll get his chances.

3up3down
12-19-2012, 01:58 PM
storm, when i say control i am talking about better quality strikes , not just not walking hitters, i am pretty cofident he can throw strikes but thats the problem , he will make a good pitch then follow it up with one belt high right down the middle, or hang a curve...i was referring to making quality piches in the strike zone & that can be improved. i question his stuff also , but if he can improve his location his stuff will appear better.

Brock Beauchamp
12-20-2012, 08:56 AM
brock, i am definately not a hater, but sell me on hendricks, what i have seen is a hi 80s Fb with little movement, location average, curve below avg, chnage avg, slider below avg...the only thing i think he can improve on is his location & that will help tremendously & he had off season elbow surgery so he will not have a normal off season to work on things.. all the other pitchers that have been mentioned have atleast 1 plus pitch, blackburn , great sinker when he is right, deduno, nasty movement on all his pitches but can he fix it ??,gibson + FB with sink, walters + change , was rated the best in the cards org for yrs & he showed it when healthy last year..just my opinion you have to have atleast 1 plus pitch to be a consistent starter in the bigs & i simply dont see it with hendricks, hope i am wrong but i just dont think so..

Well, a few things (and remember that I'm not particularly high on Hendriks, either)... First, he's only 23 and is still sorting out his secondary pitches. He's a young guy who never faced much in the way of talent until a few years ago. Second, his fastball is more in the 90-ish range, not the high 80s. He's not a hard thrower but he's not Jaime Moyer, either. Third, when he stopped pitching scared last year and nibbling around batters, he had a couple of decent games. In August and September after his return, he pitched six games and posted an ERA around 4.3-4.4 (and there were a couple of disaster starts mixed in that inflated his overall numbers). Hell, if he can pitch like he did after his call-up, he's already a better pitcher than Kevin Correia.

The more I watched Hendriks, the more I was convinced that his problem was one of confidence. He was twitchy, he nibbled at the plate, got behind batters, and was shelled for it. After his demotion/call-up, I saw less and less of that (and he finally got his first ML win). He's still 3-4 years from his prime and if he starts going after hitters and trusts his (somewhat meager) stuff, he'll be just fine as a #4/5 guy with a small chance of being another Scott Diamond with a few more strikeouts.

Parker wrote an awesome write-up about Hendriks last summer. I suggest you take a look. Twins Daily - What's hindering Hendriks? (http://twinsdaily.com/1038-what-s-hindering-hendriks.html)