PDA

View Full Version : 4 Realistic FA Pitching Options



jcphitman
12-08-2012, 09:30 PM
From what I gather, our 4 FA options in pitching are Saunders, Myers, Correia, and Lannan. LEN3 said on Twitter we aren't in on Jackson or Marcum. If we aren't in on Jackson or Marcum, we aren't in on Sanchez. I forgot who also reported it, but we didn't make an offer to McCarthy.

So with ditching ony further speculation on one of the better arms, let's look at the 4 available (from my limited perspectice):

Saunders:
Pros: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundjo01.shtml
-Pitched most of his career in AL.
-Had best year in AL.
-Was able to switch from NL to AL last year and do well with Baltimore.
-Appears to at least be consistent enough to make 28-30 starts.
Very durable.
-Could bring prospects at trade deadline (B- prospect the highest)

Cons:
-ERA will most likely be over 4 in full AL season.
-On decline.
-Price will be over inflated with Blanton signing.
-4th or 5th starter ... not a 2nd starter like Twins need.

FA Predition: 2 years at 17.5 million .. probably out of Twins price range.

Meyers:
Pros:
-Able to start or relieve.
-Was able to change back from closer to starter before in career.
-Probably a better version of Brian Duensing (going back and forth between rotation and pen).
-Willing to probably settle for less for a chance to start for a full season.
-Could bring prospects at trade deadline (C prospect at best)

Cons:
-No guarantees he can convert back into a starter.
-On decline.
-ERA will probably approach 5 as a starter in my opinion.
-Will be lucky to get to 5th inning in attempt to go back to a starter ... doesn't protect bullpen.
-Pitched 98% of his career in NL. AL a very different animal.

FA Prediction: 1 year (make good deal as starter) at 6.5 million with 1 million in incentives - will sign with Twins for starting opportunity.

Correia: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correke01.shtml
-Durable for last 4 years.
-Um ... 500 pitcher?

Cons:
-Jason Marquis all over again.
-Never pitched in AL.
-If he can have a 4 to 5 ERA in NL, imagine what it will be in AL.
-Never pitched over 200 innings.
-Won't bring any prospects at deadline since he'll probably be released before then.

FA Prediction: 2 year at 12 million ... hopefully an NL team inflates his price and keeps the Twins from making a mistake.

Lannan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lannajo01.shtml
Pros:
-Durable pitcher.
-Youngest (28) of all the 4 options.
-Looking to re-establish himself after being in minors for a majority of last year.
-Price might be better for a team like the Twins.
-Possibly still young enough in career to improve.
-Could be a decent back end guy in Twins rotation for possibly up to 3-4 years.
-Probably won't bring any good prospects back at deadline, but will bring something (C- to D???)

Cons:
-Never pitched in AL.
-Wins and losses don't count much, but he was never able have a full winning full season in Washington.
-Only went over 200 innings once.
-Not even good enough to be one of Washington's main starting 5 all season.
-Confidence might be shaken with being in minors last year after establishing himself.

FA Prediction: 1 year at 4.5 million ... Twins should sign him.

What I'd want:
I think Saunders has the highest upside. I'd love to see the Twins give him a 2 year deal as he'd for sure be our 3rd starter, which isn't terrible. My second choice would be Myers or Lannan .. with me probably going Lannan over Myers due to me knowing he can start. The Twins won't spend all of their FA money on SP ... they'll pocket some of it.

Knowing us, we'll think what Saunders wants is too much and go Lannan/Myers and Correia (yuck). It could be even worse ... maybe we'll go Correia and an even worse SP out there (looks like talks with Liriano got worse, so we look to be avoiding that bullet).

If it was Lannan and Myers, I guess that be ok ... Saunders will probably want to go to a contender. The Twins right now are viewed as a place for opportunity. A place to establish yourself and hope you do good enough to get a bigger payday, which is what both Lannan and Myers need.

We'll see what happens. What do others think (feel free to tear me to shreds if you don't agree, lol).

stringer bell
12-08-2012, 10:03 PM
Grab those lefthanders! While there aren't many righthanders who can succeed when throwing <90, there are plenty of lefties that do. Look no further than Diamond with the Twins. There are also plenty of left-handed hitters that are close to helpless against lefthanded pitching.

Willihammer
12-08-2012, 10:09 PM
Except that righthanders tee off on those lefthanders in Target Field, especially soft tossers like Saunders and Lannan.

Pass, pass, pass, and pass. We have enough of these guys already that we can pay league min. for. Put the money into something else of roll it over into next year's free agent class. Most of the realistic, 2nd tier guys with a little upside are off the table already. That's what a soft trigger finger gets you.

nicksaviking
12-08-2012, 10:28 PM
Good breakdown but there are many more options than those. At the bare minimum, we already know Liriano has an offer on the table. Though unlikely, I don't think ruling out Marcum and Jackson actually rules out Sanchez. If the Twins are looking toward the future, it may mean the are ruling out guys in the 2-3 year range. If they are looking for a pitcher who they can count on when the team is ready to re-contend, they may see Sanchez as the only legit arm aside from the too expensive Greinke. For the record,I'm not Sanchez's biggest fan, but I wouldn't be shocked if he's what Ryan thinks he is saving his payroll for.

beckmt
12-08-2012, 10:38 PM
Except that righthanders tee off on those lefthanders in Target Field, especially soft tossers like Saunders and Lannan.

Pass, pass, pass, and pass. We have enough of these guys already that we can pay league min. for. Put the money into something else of roll it over into next year's free agent class. Most of the realistic, 2nd tier guys with a little upside are off the table already. That's what a soft trigger finger gets you.

Agree on most of this. Will probably get at least one of these, hope it is Myers or Lannan. Rest could be hopeless. Looks like payroll is less than expected. That is not good. Upside is that Gibson against this crowd will probably start up here. Training begin early.

Rosterman
12-08-2012, 10:41 PM
Marcum is still out there. Maybe not as high as $10 million. The Twins could sweep in and offer Dempster 3 years. But otherwise, look at Myers or Saunders for one. And any of the non-tenders or maybe two of them. Remember, at this point many of the teams no longer have 49-man roster space, so some guys are going to be minor league invite to spring training contracts. The Twins are lucky...they are sitting at two open roster spots, still...and can sill deep-six Butera if need be ad probably keep him in he organization.

Tcrose3636
12-08-2012, 11:47 PM
You forgot the best one out there, Liriano....sarc off..

greengoblinrulz
12-09-2012, 12:11 AM
Ryan is ONLY in on pitchers that are willing to take a 1yr deal......nothing more.
Ryan will go into 2014 w/ a combo of Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Meyer and/or May.
MN wants nothing to do with anyone else making ANY money

raindog
12-09-2012, 12:38 AM
Ryan is ONLY in on pitchers that are willing to take a 1yr deal......nothing more.
Ryan will go into 2014 w/ a combo of Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Meyer and/or May.
MN wants nothing to do with anyone else making ANY money

I am absolutely fine with that plan. Wimmers might compete for a spot at some point in 2014, too.

As for this year, Lirano makes more sense than any of the guys you listed. At least there is some (small) potential of him having an ace year. With these other guys, you'd be hoping for a mediocre year at best.

Rosterman
12-09-2012, 07:31 AM
You could've overpayed with the hopes of flipping a guy during the season. Two year contracts are not absurd. I would go 3 years on anyone under 30, for sure, or at least a nice option year with an agreed upon buyout. Don't see the Twins getting Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson or especially Lohse. Marcum and Saunders are still in play, I hope. Myers, too. Then you got the old guys like Pavano, Villanueva, Chris Young, Oswalt, Bedard, Millwood and Lowe. Liriano needs to pitch somewhere, what he gets paid will be...interesting. Do you really want Correia, Matsuzaka, Garcia, Hernandez, Wang, Cook, Jonathan Sanchez, Kip Wells, Wolf or...Jamie Moyer? Then there is the very interesting guys: Pelfrey, Lannan, Jurrijens, Gorezany, Karstens and...Slowey. 32 pitchers for 32 teams.

gunnarthor
12-09-2012, 08:17 AM
Nice write up. I still hope for Marcum but I think they'll add at least one of those 4 pitchers.

Shane Wahl
12-09-2012, 08:25 AM
All four of those pitchers are either clearly below replacement or at best replacement level. That means there is no use spending anything on them when Sam Deduno or Cole DeVries could produce the same results. A team CAN have too much pitching when most of it is bad.

There is no reason not to try to "overpay" on a one-year offer to Marcum (say $10 million plus incentives) if TR is really stuck on one-year deals (which he shouldn't be).

Top Gun
12-09-2012, 08:31 AM
It's over Twins will suck another two years now.

mike wants wins
12-09-2012, 08:53 AM
If this is what they do, I'll be disappointed. It is realistic to sign one of the top or 2nd tier guys. If they don't, it is clearly all about money. Still hoping to be wrong....

notoriousgod71
12-09-2012, 09:40 AM
Quite the nauseating list.

Brandon
12-09-2012, 11:38 AM
I think the Twins will get just enough to be an 78-84 win team on paper where a few breaks makes them a contender. once all the top talent in the minors gets established then we'll be a serious playoff contender.

ashburyjohn
12-09-2012, 12:36 PM
Saunders and Lannan are the only ones with a chance to be better than the Deduno line, and both can be had for 2-year contracts which fits the 2015 timetable for the youngsters. I'd go after them both.

glunn
12-09-2012, 02:01 PM
Saunders and Lannan are the only ones with a chance to be better than the Deduno line, and both can be had for 2-year contracts which fits the 2015 timetable for the youngsters. I'd go after them both.

That makes a lot of sense to me. I would love to hear why others disagree.

Einstein
12-09-2012, 02:12 PM
I predict Myers and Liriano and another high draft pick in 2014.

Shane Wahl
12-09-2012, 03:43 PM
Did those in favor of any of these pitchers even bother to look up their statistics?

mike wants wins
12-09-2012, 05:54 PM
Saunders and Lannan are the only ones with a chance to be better than the Deduno line, and both can be had for 2-year contracts which fits the 2015 timetable for the youngsters. I'd go after them both.

That makes a lot of sense to me. I would love to hear why others disagree.

Because they are $25MM below last year's spend, have Blackburn coming off next year, and are getting $25MM more in tv revenue next year. Maybe Morneau is coming off next year. I disagree because they have money to spend this year on good pitching. They have even more next year. There is no good reason not to sign pitchers that you expect to be good this year, next year, and the year after.

Brandon
12-09-2012, 06:25 PM
Both Diamond and Worley can be 12-15 game winners if they continue to pitch close to 180-200 innings and pitch like they have in the last year minus the injuries and if The Twins can get 2 more pitchers who can do the same then we will have the ability to compete for the playoffs. I don't think we will be heavy favorites but we won't be doormats like the last 2 years either.

If we can find a way to trade for another top 150 prospect or 2 or 3 that would be great for our future, SS Dee Gordon of LA.....

Gernzy
12-10-2012, 08:50 AM
I orignally wanted Marcum and McCarthy. I thought we'd have a good chance at both and they would be in our price range.
Now that McCarthy is gone I'd like to see Marcum and Lannan.
We'll see what happens. I have a feeling this week will say alot.

johnnydakota
12-10-2012, 09:07 AM
When will the twins quit wadding in the kiddy pool and actualy dive into the deep end?
Why not sign an asset,instead of a reject?

old nurse
12-10-2012, 09:30 AM
I do not think the Twins will sign any pitcher with durability issues after paying for Pavano and Baker last year. That they paid Pavano shows at least a willingness to part with money for a pitcher they believe will be decent for them.

johnnydakota
12-10-2012, 09:40 AM
robbie is that you?

Shane Wahl
12-10-2012, 09:41 AM
I don't think Marcum is going to cost much more than Pavano's contract plus "inflation" (inflation works a bit differently within the baseball world).

John Lannan is not good. Career 1.39 K/BB rate and it is getting worse. And that's not due to be a wild fireballer. His k rate is 4.7 for his career. He's Nick Blackburn (pre 2012) with bad control. He's given up more hits than innings pitched. Etc. etc. There is no reason to sign this guy for even a minimum deal, much less multiple millions of dollars. Throw Hendriks out there instead.

Correia is almost as bad. Myers is declining and may not be able to start. Hopefully the domestic violence has stopped. Saunders COULD perform well. I just wouldn't trust it though.

Top Gun
12-10-2012, 09:42 AM
Mike is right on, but they won't do it, they will wait until all the fans are gone first.

Shane Wahl
12-10-2012, 09:43 AM
Sorry but:

Diamond
Marcum
Worley
Hendriks
Deduno/DeVries/Gibson eventually

is a better rotation than adding in two of these guys anywhere.

Top Gun
12-10-2012, 10:15 AM
but you don't have Marcum, you got Black burn instead.

ashburyjohn
12-10-2012, 02:42 PM
Saunders and Lannan are the only ones with a chance to be better than the Deduno line, and both can be had for 2-year contracts which fits the 2015 timetable for the youngsters. I'd go after them both.

That makes a lot of sense to me. I would love to hear why others disagree.

Because they are $25MM below last year's spend, have Blackburn coming off next year, and are getting $25MM more in tv revenue next year. Maybe Morneau is coming off next year. I disagree because they have money to spend this year on good pitching. They have even more next year. There is no good reason not to sign pitchers that you expect to be good this year, next year, and the year after.

I was posting in reply to the question in the thread. Not to the exclusion of also going after someone better. Also, going after someone doesn't presume success since other teams will be bidding too and the player will have some opinion about where he'd like to go. My point was there is simply no purpose in signing someone who doesn't have even the potential to be better than the multiple AAAA options the Twins currently have for starting pitching.

mike wants wins
12-10-2012, 02:51 PM
Wow, then I totally read your post wrong! My bad. I agree, they should not sign guys likely to be about the same or a tiny bit better than their current options.