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SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 12:03 PM
Now there are a few more facts coming to light in the case of RA Dickey. Basically he wants a two year extension for $26 million dollars. Which means his contract would be as follow:

2013: 5 million
2014: 13 million
2015: 13 million

Honestly? That isn't to bad all things considered, especially coming for a guy with a Cy Young.

Now, this of course means he won't come cheaply. If you are the Twins do you consider trading away a package of prospects for him? (You will have to trade at least one of the "top 8" and at least two more top 20 guys, which still might not be enough)

Thoughts?

mikeee
12-07-2012, 12:11 PM
I never see the Twins mentioned in the rumours for Dickey.
The cost doesn't seem all that bad.

Brock Beauchamp
12-07-2012, 12:12 PM
I'd give Dickey more than that for a two year deal.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 12:19 PM
I never see the Twins mentioned in the rumours for Dickey.
The cost doesn't seem all that bad.

It's pretty rare to see the Twins mentioned in many rumors to be honest. The Span deal came together rather quickly as did the Revere one (even though the Phillies were trying to get Revere for months)

There was also a lot of speculation that the Twins are/were the mystery team in the Sanchez sweepstakes. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Ryan wasn't trying to get Dickey (unless the asking price was way to high currently)

I'm not sure what the hell the Mets are doing, 2/26 is more then fair, but they are in drastic need of fixing their terrible farm system.

Top Gun
12-07-2012, 12:19 PM
Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 12:21 PM
Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.

Brock Beauchamp
12-07-2012, 12:26 PM
Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.

Hasn't anybody told you that they moved the start of Spring Training to December 15th, Dave?

Oxtung
12-07-2012, 12:35 PM
Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

Sigh, yet another enlightened comment. Please tell me which of the pitchers off the board the Twins should have signed thus far? Last I checked Grienke, Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum, Dempster etc are still on the board.

I guess Ryan can't win with some folks, the Twins have the most active winter meetings of any team and yet people are still bitching they didn't do enough.

I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 06:24 PM
I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?
That wasn't his point at all actually...
To your point:
The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young?

Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we?
Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA
Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL)

This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen.

You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration.

Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 06:36 PM
I wouldn't read too much into Dempster's limited time in the AL last year.

Dickey means one top and one near-top prospect, probably. I would rather just spend the same amount of money without depleting the system.

Chance
12-07-2012, 06:48 PM
If only we would have kept him years ago... Wishful thinking.

Rosterman
12-07-2012, 07:21 PM
Dickey will age gracefully as a knuckleballer. He has already aged. Not sure how much older he can get and he'll just remain competent or downrite ugly. Plus, you need someone to catch him. Dickey is a bargain for his 39th year. There is no need for the Mets or anyone to sign him to an extension until they see how he repeats. Especially at those prices. Dempster MIGHT have more of an upside, but that third year IS the killer. If I had to choose between Dempster, Myers or that other reliever that used to start, I would take the other two over Dempsey, for probably a lot less. The Mets can rid themselves of Dickey and get a prospect (high) or two, they should go for it. The new team doesn't have to extend the contract. Everything works against Dickey, except that he marvelously WON a Cy Young somehow. Who would've ever thought.

diehardtwinsfan
12-07-2012, 08:23 PM
Why trade your future if you are to tight to buy a free agent?

The correct question is why trade your future for a guy who will be both 40 and a FA when that futue is the present?

Brock Beauchamp
12-07-2012, 08:39 PM
Dickey will age gracefully as a knuckleballer. He has already aged. Not sure how much older he can get and he'll just remain competent or downrite ugly. Plus, you need someone to catch him. Dickey is a bargain for his 39th year. There is no need for the Mets or anyone to sign him to an extension until they see how he repeats. Especially at those prices. Dempster MIGHT have more of an upside, but that third year IS the killer. If I had to choose between Dempster, Myers or that other reliever that used to start, I would take the other two over Dempsey, for probably a lot less. The Mets can rid themselves of Dickey and get a prospect (high) or two, they should go for it. The new team doesn't have to extend the contract. Everything works against Dickey, except that he marvelously WON a Cy Young somehow. Who would've ever thought.

If I'm the Mets, I give Dickey his $26m and shut up. If he comes close to repeating, he can demand a 3/$39m or higher and get it. If he's merely good-to-very-good (which he has been for three years running now), he's worth over $13m a year. If he's anywhere close to his 2012 numbers, he's a $20m or better player.

For the Mets, $26m is a very manageable risk. Hell, it's a manageable risk for the Twins when you're talking the kind of upside Dickey can bring. Over the past three seasons, Dickey is a ten win player.

Oxtung
12-07-2012, 08:48 PM
I think his point is we could go out and sign a FA pitcher of similar quality this year. We have the money available. Why would we trade prospects AND still have to pay $31M? Why not just sign Dempster for 3 years?
That wasn't his point at all actually...
To your point:
The same Dempster who got absolutely lit up in Texas? He is the same quality as the guy who just won the NL Cy Young?

Lets take a look at the numbers, shall we?
Dickey last 3 seasons: 2.84 ERA, 3.28 ERA, 2.73 ERA
Dempster: 3.85, 4.80, 3.38 (5.09 in AL)

This isn't even bringing into the fact that Dickey will most certainly age better as a Knuckleballer, and was able to do things with the pitch that no player has done before. I was at one of his one hitters last season, and it was one of the most dominant pitching performances I have ever seen.

You can make the argument to sign Dempster because he won't cost prospects, but to say are "Similar" quality is an exaggeration.

Once again, Dickey is coming off a Cy Young Win. Dempster is looking like a #3 or #4 in the AL at best.

Here are some other stats to compare:

Last 3 Seasons:


Season/Player
FIP
xFIP
WAR


2010/Dickey

3.65

3.75

2.8



2010/Dempster

3.99

3.74

3.2



2011/Dickey

3.77

3.95

2.5



2011/Dempster

3.91

3.70

2.7



2012/Dickey

3.27

3.27

4.6



2012/Dempster

3.69

3.77

3.3



Dickey Average/Total

3.56

3.66

9.9



Dempster Average/Total

3.86

3.74

9.2





Seems pretty comparable to me.

Dickey is a few years older than Dempster so even if knuckleballers age better they aren't starting from the same place. Personally I think they both will be putting up 5+ ERA's in 3 years.

To my larger point however, in comparison to the Twins starting rotation last year they are very similar pitchers. Both of them are DRASTICALLY better than what we had. Considering that we as fans mostly agree 2013 isn't going to be a contending year and that we should be looking to stockpile young talent:

Why would you give up good prospects for Dickey when you could just sign Dempster?

Brock Beauchamp
12-07-2012, 09:00 PM
Dickey and Dempster are similar right now but Dickey is set up to age much more gracefully.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 09:34 PM
They aren't similar at all. Over the last 3 years dickey has a signicantly lowe ERA. And he appears to only be getting better with his mastering of the knuckleball. Dickey is literally doing something no other player in the history of baseball has been able to do. You certainly don't have to worry about his arm wearing down, since he is missing the tendon anyways! As far as the rest of his "health" the dude just climbed Mount Kilimanjaro last year then won the Cy Young, I don't see his body breaking down signifcantly anytime in the next 3 years. Dempster? Not so much.

Give me the high upside guy who can have a decent shot at being an ace anyday. The twins have plenty of guys who can possibly be middle of the rotation type guys: diamond, Worley, Gibson, hendriks. We need a guy who can go out and pitch a 9 inning one hitter any given night.(like dickey did Two games in a row last year)

spycake
12-07-2012, 09:37 PM
Hicks, Mastroianni, and Benson for Dickey -- I'm calling it now. Who needs a CF?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 09:45 PM
I would offer: Arcia, Boer and Hendriks in a heartbeat.

Mark_RM
12-07-2012, 10:14 PM
As tempting as getting Dickey would be, the Twins are a year or two away from trading away any top prospect for major league talent in their 30s.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 10:24 PM
As tempting as getting Dickey would be, the Twins are a year or two away from trading away any top prospect for major league talent in their 30s.
The thing is: Dickey is your typical pitcher in his 30's, he is just finding his grove now. Normally I would agree with you, but Dickey is truly his own special case. The upside is there, and he could help a ton in 2013/2014/2015. It's not like this is a one year thing we are talking about!

Also: Dickey ERA last three years 2.95
Dempster: 4.04

How could we turn down a guy who has the potential to post a sub or low 3.00 ERA without having to commit 100+ million to him!

If it just takes one of our "elite 8" and a couple other pieces, why not pull the trigger? Having nice prospects is....well...nice and all, but I think you have to try to get the one CY Young pitcher you can realistically get.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 11:23 PM
Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.

Oxtung
12-08-2012, 12:50 AM
Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.

I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.

So to sum it up:
Huge Risk
Costs Prospects
Other options

Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.

Otwins
12-08-2012, 01:01 AM
I would bet you could offer lower ranked prospects if you also took Santana back. Mets would probably love to include his $20+ million salary. They just extended Wright and owner has money trouble. We need 2 more pitchers and have the $25 million to spend.

Shane Wahl
12-08-2012, 01:14 AM
Dickey is not coming back to the Twins. I guarantee you that.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 01:17 AM
Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.

I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.

So to sum it up:
Huge Risk
Costs Prospects
Other options

Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.

Dude, he is a knuckleball Pitcher.XFIP/FIP and several others don't apply to him as much as the other 99.5% of pitchers who aren't knuckleballers. Most of the time when hitter did put bat on ball it was with very weak contact. Hell even with that said his xFIP and FIP were 3.27 last year, add in his 2.73 ERA and k/bb rate and that is top of the rotation stuff all the way. Granted his strand rate was 5% higher then normal, but at the same time his HR% was high as well, what does this say about 2012? It wasn't a fluke for Dickey. Also his two years prior were pretty damn good as well!

As far as knuckleballers not aging well, I'm not sure what you mean. Wakefield pitched effectively into his 41 year season, and wasn't even that god awful in his 42 age year. Phil Niekro had a 3.09 ERA when he was 45! His brother Joe had a sub 4.00 ERA his 40th year and pitched to 43.

Also as I mentioned in the other thread:

Lannan has a better Career ERA then Dempster, and a better past 3 full seasons ERA then Dempster. This isn't to say Dempster has no value or Lannan is better, it just illustrates that Dempster at 3 years and no prospects is not better then Dickey at 3 years and some prospects.

Give me Dickey any day of the week over Dempster, especially if it only costs 26 mil over 2 years and only 1 of our top 8 prospects (+ some other pieces)

RodneyKline
12-08-2012, 02:01 AM
Why is everyone throwing around these big numbers for pitchers that will not make the team viable this decade. We need to spend a little more per year: $20 million or so or 7 years, 140 million for the 29 year old Grienke. He would be the Ace this team desperately needs not a 39 year old circus performer knuckleballer at his peak (that we also had the year prior to his three year excellent run). I say that the extra $20 million per year changes us from a below .500 team for the rest of the decade to an annual contender.

I know payroll needs to go up but if it were my money, I would rather bet on a $110-$120 million payroll with Grienke than a $100 million payroll or more for RA Dickey or Dempster. The Twins have spent this much in MLB payroll the last three years and it is clear that this team without a #1 or #2 starter will not compete. With Grienke, Terry Ryan would also not have to keep begging average at best pitchers to take his money. No FA pitcher of any value wants to go to a team not serious about contending now (no matter what TR says, we are not a contender without a #1 or #2 starter). No team is!

Attendance and overall revenue will keep declining unless the Twins field a competitor and prove to the fans that buying them a new stadium was going to make us competitive. It is a huge lie so far but I am not giving up on Jim Pohlad. TR is a cheapskate but JP is not cheap like his Father. He just needs someone to convince him that spending the money will be a good investment. I feel strongly that adding Grienke for a $120m total payroll is a much smarter investment than $100 million on a team without a #1 or a #2 pitcher. We are competitive in our division with an ace that matches up with Verlander or any other ace and not competitive without an ace.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 02:42 AM
Why is everyone throwing around these big numbers for pitchers that will not make the team viable this decade. We need to spend a little more per year: $20 million or so or 7 years, 140 million for the 29 year old Grienke. He would be the Ace this team desperately needs not a 39 year old circus performer knuckleballer at his peak (that we also had the year prior to his three year excellent run). I say that the extra $20 million per year changes us from a below .500 team for the rest of the decade to an annual contender.

I know payroll needs to go up but if it were my money, I would rather bet on a $110-$120 million payroll with Grienke than a $100 million payroll or more for RA Dickey or Dempster. The Twins have spent this much in MLB payroll the last three years and it is clear that this team without a #1 or #2 starter will not compete. With Grienke, Terry Ryan would also not have to keep begging average at best pitchers to take his money. No FA pitcher of any value wants to go to a team not serious about contending now (no matter what TR says, we are not a contender without a #1 or #2 starter). No team is!

Attendance and overall revenue will keep declining unless the Twins field a competitor and prove to the fans that buying them a new stadium was going to make us competitive. It is a huge lie so far but I am not giving up on Jim Pohlad. TR is a cheapskate but JP is not cheap like his Father. He just needs someone to convince him that spending the money will be a good investment. I feel strongly that adding Grienke for a $120m total payroll is a much smarter investment than $100 million on a team without a #1 or a #2 pitcher. We are competitive in our division with an ace that matches up with Verlander or any other ace and not competitive without an ace.

2010: Greinke: 4.17 ERA
2011: Greinke: 3.83 ERA
2012: Greinke: 3.48 ERA

2010: Dickey: 2.84 ERA
2011: Dickey: 3.28 ERA
2102: Dickey: 2.73 ERA

Can we please stop with the "Derp, Dickey is Old and he will suck moving forward" when there is zero evidence supporting that case?

You want to tie up 7 years and $140 million in ****ing Zach Grienke? A guy who is about as mentally stable as a 15 year old fat girl? $140 million to a guy with a career 3.77 ERA and 3.62 xFIP? Greinke is solid no doubt, and a better option then Dickey moving forward. But $115 million extra over 4 years better? looooool no.

Oxtung
12-08-2012, 04:09 AM
Also it should be noted that xFIP, and FIP data really is a poor way to judge Dickey, since a good number of "batted" balls against his wicked knuckleball are "easy outs"/poorly hit balls. If you watch a game or two when he was pitching it jumps out right away. I'm not a SABR expert by any means, but this is what jumps out to me, can anyone else confirm? It's not like he had the greatest defense in the world behind him last year as well....

Again at the end of the day his ERA is over 1 run lower then Dempster's, you can throw out all the other stats you want, but give me the guy who has given you significantly better results over the last 3 years then the guy who hasn't.

I look at Dickey and see a guy who's ERA is out of whack with his peripherals. His 9 k/9 in 2012 was the only time in the last 10 years he has been over 6 k/9 and I think that is a fluke. I see a guy who is going to be 38 and I think he is likely to succumb to age just like everyone else (including many other knuckleballers). I also see other pitchers out there who are very good pitchers and would be HUGE upgrades to the Twins rotation that would cost about the same money without giving away any prospects.

So to sum it up:
Huge Risk
Costs Prospects
Other options

Certainly you are more the welcome to your own opinion.

Dude, he is a knuckleball Pitcher.XFIP/FIP and several others don't apply to him as much as the other 99.5% of pitchers who aren't knuckleballers. Most of the time when hitter did put bat on ball it was with very weak contact. Hell even with that said his xFIP and FIP were 3.27 last year, add in his 2.73 ERA and k/bb rate and that is top of the rotation stuff all the way. Granted his strand rate was 5% higher then normal, but at the same time his HR% was high as well, what does this say about 2012? It wasn't a fluke for Dickey. Also his two years prior were pretty damn good as well!

As far as knuckleballers not aging well, I'm not sure what you mean. Wakefield pitched effectively into his 41 year season, and wasn't even that god awful in his 42 age year. Phil Niekro had a 3.09 ERA when he was 45! His brother Joe had a sub 4.00 ERA his 40th year and pitched to 43.

Also as I mentioned in the other thread:

Lannan has a better Career ERA then Dempster, and a better past 3 full seasons ERA then Dempster. This isn't to say Dempster has no value or Lannan is better, it just illustrates that Dempster at 3 years and no prospects is not better then Dickey at 3 years and some prospects.

Give me Dickey any day of the week over Dempster, especially if it only costs 26 mil over 2 years and only 1 of our top 8 prospects (+ some other pieces)


Knuckleballers vs. FIP
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
Why exactly do these not apply to him? Does his knuckleball change how many HR's, BB's or k's he has? If it was true that knuckleballers were exempt from this stat it would show up in other knuckleballers stats. Here are career ERA and FIP numbers of a few knuckleballers as well as Dickey's 3 year average:



Player
ERA
FIP


P.Niekro
3.35
3.62


Wakefield
4.41
4.72


J.Niekro
3.59
3.79


Dickey
2.94
3.68


From these numbers I think it's safe to say FIP works for knuckleballers. If FIP works then so does WAR since WAR is based on FIP.

Fluke
Any time a pitcher's K/9 rate increases from 6 to 9 for one season that is the definition of flukey (which was what I said...not that his season as a whole was flukey).

Aging
Wakefield and the Niekro brothers aged well, good for them. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens aged well too. These anectdotes mean little with regards to how other pitchers will perform as they age.

Lannan vs. Dempster vs. Dickey



Player
ERA
FIP
WAR



Lannan
3.90
4.48
3.9



Dempster
4.04
4.00
9.6



Dickey
2.95
3.70
9.9




Looks like Dempster and Dickey are pretty comparable with Lannan a distant 3rd in everything except ERA. These numbers include Lannan's pretty decent 2009 but excludes Dempsters good and Dickey's terrible 2009. If you include Dempster and Dickey's 2009 the numbers start to skew Dempsters direction.

Dempster vs. Dickey

As I said before, you are certainly capable of having your own opinion. However, nothing you have presented has changed anything in my mind. Advanced metrics show Dickey and Dempster are similar quality pitchers over the last few years. Seemingly the only major difference is in their ERA's which is not a good predictor of future success. They are asking for similar length contracts with similar dollar amounts but Dickey would require some good prospects as well. The Twins are in semi-rebuild mode, at a minimum, so trading prospects doesn't make much sense to me.

raindog
12-08-2012, 04:10 AM
Bringing up Dickey's stats from the past 10 years is a joke if you know anything about his back story. How can you not know anything about his back story?

He's a great pitcher who could definitely pitch well into his 40s. Still, he's not a good fit for the Twins. We're not an ace away from competing. We need to develop aces.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 10:23 AM
Knuckleballers vs. FIP
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
Why exactly do these not apply to him? Does his knuckleball change how many HR's, BB's or k's he has? If it was true that knuckleballers were exempt from this stat it would show up in other knuckleballers stats. Here are career ERA and FIP numbers of a few knuckleballers as well as Dickey's 3 year average:

No, FIP is a terrible way to judge him because it makes the case that his low BABIP is "luck" rather then "Skill". The majority of balls put in play against Dickey are "bad batted balls" as in the hitter is not making even close to good contact.

Again you can point out FIP all you want, the fact is Dickey's ERA is over a full run lower then Dempster over the last 3 years, and it's not due to luck. You pointing out there WAR shows how WAR is a flawed stat.

2009 has no bearing on this discussion in regards to Dickey and it shouldn't even be brought up, he was clearly a totally different pitcher as he wasn't even starting back then. (other then a single game)

Reginald Maudling's Shin
12-08-2012, 12:20 PM
No, FIP is a terrible way to judge him because it makes the case that his low BABIP is "luck" rather then "Skill". The majority of balls put in play against Dickey are "bad batted balls" as in the hitter is not making even close to good contact.



FIP is an empirical equation, i.e. "let's put some numbers together until they make sense". I don't like using empirical equations in every circumstance. I have other engineers who give me designs to review based on empirical equations all the time that don't make sense.

I wonder how to quantify and prove the idea that sustained low BABIP from non-strikeout pitchers equates to a skill. Here are the pitchers last year with an FIP-ERA>0.5:




Name


Team


W


L


GS


IP


K/9


BB/9


HR/9


BABIP


ERA


FIP


xFIP


WAR


FIP-ERA




Jeremy Hellickson


Rays


10


11


31


177


6.31


3.00


1.27


0.261


3.10


4.60


4.44


1.0


1.5




Jered Weaver


Angels


20


5


30


188.2


6.77


2.15


0.95


0.241


2.81


3.75


4.18


3.0


0.94




Jason Vargas


Mariners


14


11


33


217.1


5.84


2.28


1.45


0.254


3.85


4.69


4.45


0.8


0.84




Matt Harrison


Rangers


18


11


32


213.1


5.61


2.49


0.93


0.284


3.29


4.03


4.13


3.8


0.74




Kyle Lohse


Cardinals


16


3


33


211


6.1


1.62


0.81


0.262


2.86


3.51


3.96


3.6


0.65




Ross Detwiler


Nationals


10


8


27


164.1


5.75


2.85


0.82


0.263


3.40


4.04


4.34


1.8


0.64




Clayton Richard


Padres


14


14


33


218.2


4.4


1.73


1.28


0.272


3.99


4.62


4.16


0.2


0.63




Matt Cain


Giants


16


5


32


219.1


7.92


2.09


0.86


0.259


2.79


3.40


3.82


3.8


0.61




Jordan Zimmermann


Nationals


12


8


32


195.2


7.04


1.98


0.83


0.288


2.94


3.51


3.78


3.5


0.57




Hiroki Kuroda


Yankees


16


11


33


219.2


6.84


2.09


1.02


0.281


3.32


3.86


3.67


3.9


0.54




R.A. Dickey


Mets


20


6


33


233.2


8.86


2.08


0.92


0.275


2.73


3.27


3.27


4.6


0.54




Aaron Harang


Dodgers


10


10


31


179.2


6.56


4.26


0.7


0.277


3.61


4.14


4.95


1.5


0.53




Most of these pitchers are low strikeout guys, which makes sense since FIP is strongly related to K's. But can we say pitchers like Jered Weaver and Dickey (who excepting for this year has had low K-rates) have the skills to cause poorly hit balls?

Brock Beauchamp
12-08-2012, 12:23 PM
Testing post.

Shane Wahl
12-08-2012, 12:32 PM
Rather low to talk about Greinke's mental health history (by the way, if you AREN'T anxious and depressed given the world we live in, something is wrong with YOU!) and "fat 15-year-old girls."

All for R.A. Dickey

johnnydakota
12-08-2012, 12:42 PM
I would bet you could offer lower ranked prospects if you also took Santana back. Mets would probably love to include his $20+ million salary. They just extended Wright and owner has money trouble. We need 2 more pitchers and have the $25 million to spend.

santana is owed 25.5 million and another 5 million for buying out his option year

Fire Dan Gladden
12-08-2012, 01:59 PM
[)[/QUOTE]


Aging
Wakefield and the Niekro brothers aged well, good for them. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens aged well too. These anectdotes mean little with regards to how other pitchers will perform as they age.
.[/QUOTE]

I believe if you took knuckleball pitchers as a group, and non-knuckleball pitchers as a group, you would find that knuckleballers in general pitch more effectively after the age of 40 than non-knuckleballers. If you asked 30 GMs who they think would be pitching effectively at age 41, how many would say Dempster would and Dickey wouldn't? Zero. How many would say Dickey would still be effective at 41? Probably all. This is not anecdotes, this is just the way it is. This portion of your argument has no legs whatsoever.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 02:30 PM
Rather low to talk about Greinke's mental health history (by the way, if you AREN'T anxious and depressed given the world we live in, something is wrong with YOU!) and "fat 15-year-old girls."

All for R.A. Dickey

It was obviously in jest (maybe in poor taste, but this is the internet after all!) Sorry if I offended you with my hyperbole?

Greinke's mental healthy history should be taken into factor though (and it is), just like any players injury history or substance abuse history (Josh Hamilton). Greinke is fine and dandy, but giving him 140 million is HUUUUUGGGGGGEEEE RISK

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 02:36 PM
Most of these pitchers are low strikeout guys, which makes sense since FIP is strongly related to K's. But can we say pitchers like Jered Weaver and Dickey (who excepting for this year has had low K-rates) have the skills to cause poorly hit balls?

With Dickey, it basically is the "eye ball test" I watched him pitch about 7 or 8 times this year, and hitters were completely baffled by him, the majority of the contact they made was "poor" in can of corn pop ups/flight outs/jam shots etc.

Weaver is an interesting case, his GB% is...well... poor, yet he has way outperformed his FIP/xFIP in each of the last 2 years.

I get that one year might be a fluke/statistical anomaly , but when you do it three years in a row like Dickey or two in a row Weaver it starts to become more of a trend.

IMO WAR for pitchers is basically worthless. I think it is much more useful for position players because it ties in the whole defense and base-running parts of their job as well.

Pitchers, pitch. That is pretty much 95% of their success rate (the other 5% is fielding/coverinr and pick off moves)

Oxtung
12-08-2012, 02:38 PM
Aging
Wakefield and the Niekro brothers aged well, good for them. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens aged well too. These anectdotes mean little with regards to how other pitchers will perform as they age.
.

I believe if you took knuckleball pitchers as a group, and non-knuckleball pitchers as a group, you would find that knuckleballers in general pitch more effectively after the age of 40 than non-knuckleballers. If you asked 30 GMs who they think would be pitching effectively at age 41, how many would say Dempster would and Dickey wouldn't? Zero. How many would say Dickey would still be effective at 41? Probably all. This is not anecdotes, this is just the way it is. This portion of your argument has no legs whatsoever.

2 things:

First, you start your paragraph off with the words "I think". That is an opinion and no matter how widely believed it is just that, an opinion. Until there is some kind of statistical evidence backing up your assertion my opinion is just as valid.

Second, my position on age has always been that Dempster is already 2 years younger than Dickey. So even if we assume your aging assertion is true, which until I see some empirical evidence I don't, they aren't starting from the same place.

Oxtung
12-08-2012, 02:43 PM
Knuckleballers vs. FIP
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
Why exactly do these not apply to him? Does his knuckleball change how many HR's, BB's or k's he has? If it was true that knuckleballers were exempt from this stat it would show up in other knuckleballers stats. Here are career ERA and FIP numbers of a few knuckleballers as well as Dickey's 3 year average:

No, FIP is a terrible way to judge him because it makes the case that his low BABIP is "luck" rather then "Skill". The majority of balls put in play against Dickey are "bad batted balls" as in the hitter is not making even close to good contact.

Again you can point out FIP all you want, the fact is Dickey's ERA is over a full run lower then Dempster over the last 3 years, and it's not due to luck. You pointing out there WAR shows how WAR is a flawed stat.

2009 has no bearing on this discussion in regards to Dickey and it shouldn't even be brought up, he was clearly a totally different pitcher as he wasn't even starting back then. (other then a single game)

Look you're basically making the arguement that you believe your eyes over statistics. That is just fine. As I've now said several times I'm ok with you having that opinion. I will lean towards the more empirical analysis for myself. I think we've taken this discussion about as far as we can and so probably won't be responding further. Hope you're having a great Saturday!

Oxtung
12-08-2012, 02:48 PM
Bringing up Dickey's stats from the past 10 years is a joke if you know anything about his back story. How can you not know anything about his back story?

He's a great pitcher who could definitely pitch well into his 40s. Still, he's not a good fit for the Twins. We're not an ace away from competing. We need to develop aces.


I'm not sure if you're replying to me but if you are all of my statistics on Dickey only encompass 2010-2012, the three years he has been starting. The only lifetime statistics I posted were in regards to other knuckleball pitchers to see how their ERA compared with FIP to help determine if FIP applied to knuckleball pitchers.

RodneyKline
12-08-2012, 04:31 PM
I am in the minority I'm sure but I believe that we are an ace away from competing but that ace is not RA Dickey. I do not believe he is an ace no matter that he won the the Cy Young, even if he has had three very good ERA years after he left the Twins. (BTW, between he and David Ortiz, that is a good argument against TR being able to see into the future). Knuckleball pitchers cause many issues (passed balls, stollen bases, etc) that other pitchers do not have to deal with.

Grienke is the ace that we need in my opinion. We still need a #2 and a #3 starter before we are competitive but I think TR will find a couple of #3 guys like he usually does and it will be much easier to sign them once Grienke is here. Grienke is the real deal as an ace. He matches up well with other aces like Verlander and CC Sabathia to name a couple that we need to worry about to be competitive.

This strategy is not without risk but to say that it is not a viable strategy is more stupid than my suggesting it. My main points are these: If it were my money and I had a team that was the worst in the American League two years in a row after getting a new stadium, I would make sure that we were competitive in 2013. I would not spend $100 million again this year on a team without a real number one or two starter, because that team will not get over .500. I would still put together that $100 million team but I would replace one of the $5-$10 million guys we are hearing rumors about with Grienke, I know that this increases payroll to $110 or $115 million but I believe it also makes this team competitive. I would keep accumulating good arms in the minors like he is doing (Draft another couple with the #4 and #34 picks coming up.) for the future but we need to realize that the odds are very low that one of these kids will be an ace. It can happen but an ace needs to have more than just strikeout power. He needs control and consistency to go with that live arm. That is very rare and it is what Grienke has. The last thing an ace needs is ice in his veins and a willingness to throw the team on his back when needed. That Grienke has not proven that he has or doesn't have because he has never been on the big stage but there is no other starter available that is that much of the real deal as he is.

Ask yourself this, if the Twins build the same team as TR always does for a $100m payroll or they replace one starter with Grienke and spend $115m let's say, which team would you bet your money on doing the best that year and every year after that. I understand fully the risk of a pitcher being one injury away from being paid $40 million for two years of rehab but I still would spend the extra $15m per year on him if it were my money. I also think that Jim Pohlad has proven that he will go to $115m if he can be convinced that it will make the team a winner. You can't build a long term winner by paying more than Mauer and Grienke this crazy money but you need to supplement your young guys with at least two to three superstars. You can trade them if the young guys turn out to be good enough but you need proven superstars until these young guns are here to stay. Mauer and Grienke cost us $43 million of a $115m payroll and that is about a third of it but I think it needs to be done to build a team that consistently competes every year.

This team has a good enough offense, bullpen and an OK defense, they just need a #1 and a #2 starter and they are competitive. They can get there with $115m in mlb payroll. Just my $.02

Brock Beauchamp
12-08-2012, 05:08 PM
Ryan was not the GM when Dickey signed with the Twins nor was he the GM when the Twins let Dickey go.

Pretty hard to pin that one on Ryan.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 05:12 PM
Ryan was not the GM when Dickey signed with the Twins nor was he the GM when the Twins let Dickey go.

Pretty hard to pin that one on Ryan.
Please Brock, you know as well as anyone that Ryan was clearly the puppet-master the whole time!!111!!!one!!

Also can we stop criticizing the Twins for letting Dickey go? NOBODY could predict the success he was going to have.

Shane Wahl
12-08-2012, 05:18 PM
Dickey would easily be worth the money, but he is not worth the prospect(s).