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Nick Nelson
12-06-2012, 06:50 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1236-Twins-Punting-2013-Not-So-Fast

Dave T
12-06-2012, 07:07 PM
Nick - thank you for writing what I've been thinking. We're two pitchers and maybe a shortstop away from credibility as a contender in the AL Central. How much does R.A. Dickey want, again?

Top Gun
12-06-2012, 07:08 PM
It's not over tell the top pitchers sign.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-06-2012, 07:11 PM
It's not over tell the top pitchers sign.

True that Top Gun!

ltwedt
12-06-2012, 07:18 PM
yeah - Or until . . . it's over

Mchans24
12-06-2012, 07:20 PM
I've noticed many casual fans calling this a disaster, I think these are very good moves that could turn great if May or Meyer turns into a front line guy down the road. Especially considering neither Span or Revere fit in past 2013. I'm hopeful we can sign an Edwin Jackson type to man the front of the rotation on maybe a 2-3 year deal. If not, I'm ok with picking up another arm at the deadline with Willingham or Morneau as trade bait!

Seth Stohs
12-06-2012, 07:37 PM
Great article, Nick, and definitely puts things into perspective. Until Greinke and Sanchez sign, we may not see that next tier sign, and I think this flexibility allows them to be in on the likes of Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum and others in the $8-12 million range.

mike wants wins
12-06-2012, 07:48 PM
According to Mackey, the Twins cannot have their top 3-4 players make 50% of their budget. If Mauer makes $23MM, that means the next 3 can make $24MM combined. Now, that does not leave any room to sign any pitchers that make real money, even if they trade Morneau......Me, I'd sign Marcum and 1 other pitcher and call it a day. But I don't see how signing any legit player fits within Ryan's statement.

pjnelly
12-06-2012, 07:50 PM
I think your right, Nick. Better yet, I think TR is thinking the same way: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25519603&topic_id=8877600&c_id=min&tcid=vpp_copy_25519603&v=3

strumdatjag
12-06-2012, 08:04 PM
Why sign two $10 million pitchers? The Twins should sign one of the top available free agent pitchers like Grienke, Jackson, McCarthy, or Dempster and fill out the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, Worley and allow someone to earn the fifth spot in training camp (if nobody earns the spot ofr someone is injured, take a cast-off from anther team at the end of Spring Training).

tjsyam921
12-06-2012, 08:06 PM
Jackson and Marcum to go along with Diamond, Worley, and either Hendriks, Walters, or Deduno would definitely be better than last year. Sure could use a SS or 2b that can hit.

frightwig
12-06-2012, 08:10 PM
One important thing to keep in mind: Worley is recovering from surgery to remove a "loose body" and a bone spur from his elbow. Pitchers who have had similar offseason surgeries typically need 2-3 months of the next season to get back into shape, which means Worley probably isn't going to be in form until next June or July. And that means Worley isn't really going to help the Twins contend until 2014-16. I'd guess that's been factored into Terry Ryan's plan, anyway.

I like this move for the long term. Even if Trevor May doesn't solve his control problems, I'd still rather have Vance Worley (assuming he gets healthy) over the next 4 years than Ben Revere. But it definitely does look like another sign of punting on 2013, unless Ryan is quietly planning to spend money on the lineup as well as starting pitching this winter. The lineup, as it stands, looks like it's probably going to be below-average, and possibly even really poor.

Nick Nelson
12-06-2012, 08:22 PM
Drew Storen had surgery to remove bone chips in April of last season, came back in July and posted a 2.37 ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP the rest of the way. Worley will have five months from the date of his surgery until pitchers and catchers report.

It's certainly possible that Worley will have complications from the surgery but I don't see why you'd assume it. Plenty of guys bounce back in one offseason.

one_eyed_jack
12-06-2012, 08:32 PM
The Twins are not punting, and should not be punting in 2013. Look at the state of this division. Not a powerhouse in it. It was the weakest in baseball in 2012, and I don't really see it being any better next year. If the Twins can upgrade their starting pitching and middle infield from godawful to competent, they'll be able to hang in the race for a while.

Anorthagen
12-06-2012, 08:49 PM
Moneyball is one my favorite movies, and after watching that movie and seeing how billy bean made the A's into a contender. It is very easy to see how Terry Ryan is doing that same concept. He trades away good players to get other organizations top pitchers. Unfortunately, from a fan's point of view you would rather not see this, but you only know it will make the team better overall. Especially with how much the twins need starting pitching. If the twins can have diamond, Worley, Gibson, Hendricks, and whoever else in their rotation there is a good chance that they could finish as high as 3rd in the division. With the exception of everyone staying healthy.

kab21
12-06-2012, 08:54 PM
The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.

h2oface
12-06-2012, 08:54 PM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

greengoblinrulz
12-06-2012, 08:55 PM
Love the 2 trades but any shot for success for this season will be dimished by having the worst double play combo in the majors.
Also wasnt liking Ryan saying Blackburn & Duensing could be in the running for starting spots this yr.....groan

kab21
12-06-2012, 08:58 PM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

More importantly than this they need to show that they aren't the 2nd worst team (the Astros are truly awful) in the American league and get back to .500. Even if the division is weak they still have a lot of work to do to get out of the cellar.

TheLeviathan
12-06-2012, 09:01 PM
The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.

Right, they aren't punting but they also aren't putting their eggs in the 2013 basket. I think the most dangerous thing they could done was overreact to the needs of the next season at the expense of the organization's long-term strength. So far they have focused on getting pitching talent that aligns perfectly with our best minor league players and managed to add a 25 year old with some solid facets to his game.

The problem is that their trade chips are pretty much gone unless they actually punt and we are seeing Ryan publically acknowedge that they are having difficulty signing players (for whatever reason). This team, as it is currently constituted after the trades, is not a whole lot better for next year. It all comes down to what they can do with the money they should have available.

jokin
12-06-2012, 09:06 PM
The Twins would be punting next season and future seasons if they weren't doing these deals. 2013 was already going to be a rough season but I'm becoming a little more optimistic each day. If they trade one or both of Willingham and Morneau for prospects then I would consider it punting though. there still won't be a lot of pitching and the offense would be looking pretty weak unless Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee and Plouffe significantly overachieved.

The defense is looking pretty shaky, too.

All indications in the media are that they will move W, M, whoever- if- the return in trade is acceptable. They're apparently "shopping" them.

"Chris Kluwe calling on Line 2"

one_eyed_jack
12-06-2012, 09:25 PM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

nicksaviking
12-06-2012, 09:48 PM
They may not have punted yet, but they may as well if they don't fill the top of the lineup. I was interested in Jeff Keppinger before these moves, he'd look pretty good playing 2B/3B and in the two hole right now. He seemed like a good fit, don't know why the Twins showed no interest.

mlbfan
12-06-2012, 09:50 PM
Until they actually sign a good pitcher they are punting. With the loss of Pavano and Caps they had enough money to buy a pitcher on the free agent market. As of now they have refused to spend any money and have indicated that they will not do so. Right now they are much weaker on defense, they are much weaker on offense and they don't have any depth. Hardly moving forward in 2013.

Terry Ryan could just spend some money to get the one pitcher (4th starter) he has so far. He did not have to trade two position players to do so. This is clearly giving up in 2013. Furthermore, he is giving up in 2014 as well. All of our prospects are in AA. They will maybe make the team in 2014. They won't be any good until 2016 or 2017.

Because of poor of a drafting strategy he could bite the bullet and make the organization pay for it by spending some money, instead he will make the fans pay for it by runnning out a minor league lineup with no chance for winning until some far off future event.

No matter how much whipped cream you put on it this season is still crap.

Seth Stohs
12-06-2012, 09:58 PM
Hendriks had bone chips removed. Lots of pitchers do that. Nathan did it. Santana had it done the offseason before he won his first Cy Young. Worley had his surgery in August, so he should be completely fine.

nokomismod
12-06-2012, 09:59 PM
In my opinion, mlbfan, i am more excited for this season, after the past two trades. Nothing against Span or Revere, they are both decent offensive players, and above average defensive players. I just think it's time to see Arcia, Hicks, and possibly Benson.
I have to think we will see at least two starters signed and maybe one or two infielders. I don't necessarily think we will contend, but at least we are moving forward.

jokin
12-06-2012, 10:03 PM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_428b_1018):


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

jokin
12-06-2012, 10:10 PM
Love the 2 trades but any shot for success for this season will be dimished by having the worst double play combo in the majors.
Also wasnt liking Ryan saying Blackburn & Duensing could be in the running for starting spots this yr.....groan

If that comment wasn't enough to convince Nick Nelson and the gang that Ryan is punting, the re-signing of Liriano should put it over the top.

mlbfan
12-06-2012, 10:11 PM
In my opinion, mlbfan, i am more excited for this season, after the past two trades. Nothing against Span or Revere, they are both decent offensive players, and above average defensive players. I just think it's time to see Arcia, Hicks, and possibly Benson.
I have to think we will see at least two starters signed and maybe one or two infielders. I don't necessarily think we will contend, but at least we are moving forward.

I was looking forward to seeing Arcia, HIcks and Benson also, in AAA. They don't belong in the majors yet. Further, they won't be as good as Span or Revere for at least two years.

Mauerpower
12-06-2012, 10:12 PM
arcia and hicks are will be better defensively than revere, and possibly as well as span. They are definitely better offensively. Yes, they haven't been in the majors yet but i'd take my chances there. The twins are better off with the return. They have drastically needed starting pitching for a few years now. Solid defense and pitching will win games. You have to give yourself at chance to win. We didn't have that the last couple years. I'm looking forward to this season, and I will actually be excited if they spend some money on an ace.

jokin
12-06-2012, 10:18 PM
Great article, Nick, and definitely puts things into perspective. Until Greinke and Sanchez sign, we may not see that next tier sign, and I think this flexibility allows them to be in on the likes of Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum and others in the $8-12 million range.

I think that boat has set sail. Greinke is trying for $25M and anything close to that lifts all the other boats in the water. Haren just signed for $13M and all the guys you mentioned will ask and likely receive at least that much and possibly much more.

mlbfan
12-06-2012, 10:21 PM
arcia and hicks are will be better defensively than revere, and possibly as well as span. They are definitely better offensively. Yes, they haven't been in the majors yet but i'd take my chances there. The twins are better off with the return. They have drastically needed starting pitching for a few years now. Solid defense and pitching will win games. You have to give yourself at chance to win. We didn't have that the last couple years. I'm looking forward to this season, and I will actually be excited if they spend some money on an ace.

I will be excited if they spend money on an ace as well. Unfortunately, Terry Ryan has already said that he will not try for the top free agents (he says you have to be realistic) ie cheap.

jmlease1
12-06-2012, 10:22 PM
Well-stated, Nick. That said, I think 1 more veteran pitcher (Marcum or Dempster are my preferences) might be enough to solidify the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, & Worley with 1 more coming from the Hendriks/De Vries/Walters/Deduno/Blackburn/et al group. Are any of those last group of Twins pitchers going to make your socks roll up & down? No, but we'd be looking for a 4th starter, not a 1, 2, or 3. I assume Gibson's innings will be limited, so think of him as the 5th starter. I think we can find a 4th starter out of that crew.

That leaves up with some payroll flexibility to shore up the infield, giving us more options at 2B/SS, insurance/competition for Plouffe at 3B, etc.

Now, if Plouffe can be an 800 OPS player with adequate defense, and Parmelee hits better than Span the offense should still be pretty good. You can't call them the favorites for 2013, but surrender? By adding a solid starter while dropping salary, the Twins have put themselves in position to keep building a good roster and preparing for the next wave from the minors (which is now looking like a pretty strong system again).

one_eyed_jack
12-06-2012, 10:24 PM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_428b_1018):


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/20740003/detroit-tigers-favored-to-win-2013-world-series

I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day.

revdrev
12-06-2012, 10:25 PM
One important thing to keep in mind: Worley is recovering from surgery to remove a "loose body" and a bone spur from his elbow. Pitchers who have had similar offseason surgeries typically need 2-3 months of the next season to get back into shape, which means Worley probably isn't going to be in form until next June or July. And that means Worley isn't really going to help the Twins contend until 2014-16. I'd guess that's been factored into Terry Ryan's plan, anyway.

I like this move for the long term. Even if Trevor May doesn't solve his control problems, I'd still rather have Vance Worley (assuming he gets healthy) over the next 4 years than Ben Revere. But it definitely does look like another sign of punting on 2013, unless Ryan is quietly planning to spend money on the lineup as well as starting pitching this winter. The lineup, as it stands, looks like it's probably going to be below-average, and possibly even really poor.

The guy who knows TJ better than anybody said Worley doesn't need it after he examined him.

http://articles.philly.com/2012-05-24/sports/31826963_1_vance-worley-tommy-john-surgery-ulnar-collateral-ligament

Riverbrian
12-06-2012, 10:32 PM
I don't think it's totally accurate to say the are punting... I'd say it was 1st down and 40 and they just completed a 15 yard pass.

It's 2nd down and 25 to go.

Fatt Crapps
12-06-2012, 10:46 PM
Hendriks had bone chips removed. Lots of pitchers do that. Nathan did it. Santana had it done the offseason before he won his first Cy Young. Worley had his surgery in August, so he should be completely fine.

How did that turn out again?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=4973472

Mauerpower
12-06-2012, 10:55 PM
Nathan had tommy john. completely different. the spurs were removed after he was recovering from the surgery. Don't worry over worley.

jokin
12-06-2012, 11:00 PM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013:


Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE (http://partners.commission.bz/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_428b_1018):


Detroit Tigers 6/1

New York Yankees 7/1
San Francisco Giants 10/1
Texas Rangers 12/1
Washington Nationals 12/1
Los Angeles Angels 12/1
Philadelphia Phillies 14/1
St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/20740003/detroit-tigers-favored-to-win-2013-world-series

I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day.

You're right that they'll change and for the record, I hate the Tigers style of play, but given the Yankees currently in freefall and steadfast on holding on a current payroll at ~$180M- and the Rangers still not sure about their lineup for 2013, you've essentially now extended the odds of both of the other 2 AL teams on this list. The Giants are pretty much standing pat. As you point out, the oddsmaking began BEFORE the signing of Hunter, given all of these facts, as painful as it is for me to declare, the Tigers are currently the clear favorites to at least MAKE the World Series, if not take it all.

Fatt Crapps
12-06-2012, 11:01 PM
the spurs were removed after he was recovering from the surgery.

Nope.

jokin
12-06-2012, 11:02 PM
I don't think it's totally accurate to say the are punting... I'd say it was 1st down and 40 and they just completed a 15 yard pass.

It's 2nd down and 25 to go.

is that with Ponder at QB and Harvin on IR? If so, they're punting- on 3rd Down.

Mauerpower
12-06-2012, 11:12 PM
ha that's my bad I got that backwards. However, a bone spur and and bone chip still are not the same thing.

clutterheart
12-06-2012, 11:12 PM
2013 is written off as far as I am concerned.

If you are going to do it, do it right.

Trade Mauer. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham.

Mauerpower
12-06-2012, 11:17 PM
ha i read that backwards. however, a bone spur and bone chip are still completely different.

glunn
12-06-2012, 11:27 PM
It seems to me that the Twins need at least a solid #2 starter to have a decent shot to contend. Would it make sense to make a big offer to Anibal Sanchez?

frightwig
12-06-2012, 11:53 PM
Drew Storen had surgery to remove bone chips in April of last season, came back in July and posted a 2.37 ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP the rest of the way.

Storen came back to throw 4.1 innings in July (4.15 ERA, 4.2 K/9), 10.2 innings in August (3.38 ERA, 6.8 K/9), and 15.1 innings in Sept/October (1.17 ERA, 8.2 K/9). He had a light workload that got progressively greater as he seemed to get stronger. I don't think that's the model we can expect Worley to follow. Worley is going to be expected to take his regular turns in the rotation, and I'm anticipating that the results won't look so hot for at least a couple months (while we occasionally read reports about 'breaking the scar tissue,' building strength, and gaining confidence in his elbow) because I've seen that movie before.

Johan Santana in April/May 2004 is a big example that comes to mind (of course he was awesome from June onwards that season and won the Cy Young, because he was Johan Santana in his prime, but he had a 5.61 ERA in April/May). In June 2010, Santana also commented to the media about his slow recovery from another off-season surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow (LINK: http://metsblog.com/metsblog/johan-santanas-elbow-isnt-fully-recovered-from-surgery/). Part of his complaint at that time was that the injury had affected his mechanics... and, who knows, maybe that led to the shoulder injury that put him out for 2011, too. If 2004 Santana is a best-case scenario (Cy Young after a rough start), I guess the ultimate outcome of Santana's 2010 season would be the worst-case.

I'm hopeful that Worley will be able to post a 4.00 ERA, or better, after May next season, and will go on to have a successful Twins career. In the meantime, I also hope that Twins fans won't immediately write him off if he struggles out of the gate next spring. Some recovery time at the start of the season should be expected.

jessellsworth
12-07-2012, 12:03 AM
The Twins are not punting, and should not be punting in 2013. Look at the state of this division. Not a powerhouse in it. It was the weakest in baseball in 2012, and I don't really see it being any better next year. If the Twins can upgrade their starting pitching and middle infield from godawful to competent, they'll be able to hang in the race for a while.


No power team in the division? What division are the Tigers in?? Didn't they just makes the World Series?? I could be wrong. But I thought they did and have Victor Martinez coming back and signed Torri Hunter.

birdwatcher
12-07-2012, 12:30 AM
The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 12:35 AM
Good article, Nick. It's amazing how things can turn. I am still flabbergasted by getting a legit pitcher for 2013 and a prospect for the future in return for Ben Revere.

From Philly's perspective, it is actually good too. They save a bunch of money and can spend on pitching or whatever. Michael Young and Dempster or somebody are possibilities now without spending that money on Bourn.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 12:40 AM
It had looked like a punt after the Span trade. But this Revere deal had been in the works for awhile anyway.

What's fascinating to me is that Aaron Hicks, who was maligned by Twins "fans" going into 2012, may MAY be the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the 2013 Twins.

shs_59
12-07-2012, 12:48 AM
sign Ichiro!!!!! lol not really

but maybe

anyways REMEMBER NOT TO RUSH AARON HICKS he needs a FULL season of AA/ AAA time.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 01:01 AM
The FA market is pretty bad for CF after the top players. It seems doubtful that the Twins would do that now.

jokin
12-07-2012, 01:20 AM
The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

Not surprisingly, you're a nest-half-full guy. What else would you expect Ryan to say in this situation? Read his actions, they speak far more clearly than his words.

jokin
12-07-2012, 01:22 AM
It had looked like a punt after the Span trade. But this Revere deal had been in the works for awhile anyway.

What's fascinating to me is that Aaron Hicks, who was maligned by Twins "fans" going into 2012, may MAY be the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the 2013 Twins.


Dave has him alreay penciled for the BBHOF, others remain cautiously optimistic that everything finally clicked last year after all these years in the wilderness and that he's virtually on the cusp of a great Twins career that may net him membership in the Twins HOF some day.

Having said that, it would be a stunning development if he left with the team in April. Erik Komatsu and Clete Thomas will probably be available again on the waiver wire.

beckmt
12-07-2012, 01:55 AM
Hicks should get the chance. We need to start exposing the younger players and slowing the process down will not help either the attendance or the Twins major league club. If he fails he can season in Rocester.

h2oface
12-07-2012, 02:43 AM
Detroit was the American League representative in the World Series. Twins' fans like to cast aspersions on Detroit and Chicago, but to deny Detroit's talent is perhaps being a bit short sited.

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season

Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen.

Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding.

Yes, really. The point is to get in the play-offs, and then perform, right? The season really doesn't matter as much as what you do in the play-offs, as long as you get in. Cardinals in 2006 (83 wins), Twins in 1987 (85 wins), Yankees in 2000 (87 wins). All earned the World Series title with dismal records. True, 2012's Tigers (88 wins) got swept in the Series when the the bats went cold, but other than the first game, the pitching didn't. They outperformed the rest of the league when the pressure was on, still earned their spot in the series, and their players performed when it counted more than any other team in the American League, and they did it as a team, not individuals that considered themselves stars-and-scrubs. I tip my hat to them as a baseball fan first, and a Twins' fan second. I like Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame, too. He did what he had to do to win the game, and to win BIG games. Sometimes that means you don't have to get everybody out all the time.

johnnydakota
12-07-2012, 04:12 AM
2013 is written off as far as I am concerned.

If you are going to do it, do it right.

Trade Mauer. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham.

Mlb rumors reports Terry Ryan will listen to offere for everyone including Morneau and MAUER
so does that mean Ellsbury in cf,and Lester in the rotation?

mako83
12-07-2012, 04:59 AM
Revere couldnt handle being the no.1 cf. On pitching I am happy we got someone. But I still think we should go after a ss,2b,3b player right now. Screw sp until grenike and sanchez sign.

diehardtwinsfan
12-07-2012, 06:48 AM
The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

I think this is well said... a lot of things will have to break right for the Twins to contend, but some smart moves can make this team a .500 club.

Presently I'm not sure we are any better than we were last season (though I'm not sure we are much worse either), but one big signing and that will change. Like others said, this team is still going to need pitching in 2015. Getting a guy like Sanchez who is 28 and would have a decent bet of providing decent value to that big contract makes a ton of sense.

Brock Beauchamp
12-07-2012, 07:43 AM
The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

Agreed 100%. If the Twins pick up Dempster, they're instantly a better team than they were in 2012. If they pick up Marcum and, say, Liriano, they're quite a bit better. If they pick up Marcum, Liriano, and find a way to pull a middle infielder off the market, they're a vastly superior team to the 2012 squad.

Einstein
12-07-2012, 08:16 AM
Even if the starting rotation is solidified, they've got holes at 2B, SS, 3B, CF and even DH. I predict another 90 loss season. They've definitely punted on 2013, come to grips with it already.

birdwatcher
12-07-2012, 08:30 AM
The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

Not surprisingly, you're a nest-half-full guy. What else would you expect Ryan to say in this situation? Read his actions, they speak far more clearly than his words.

And of course, jokin, true to form, you are a half nest empty guy. Congratulations. Thanks for the advice, by the way, to rely on Ryan's actions and not his words. Perhaps you should take your own advice, jokin. Ryan's stiil going to take more action, but you judge him on his words and accuse him of various forms dishonesty, don't you? Isn't that hypocritical of you? Isn't that perhaps a form of dishonesty in and of itself?

wavedog
12-07-2012, 08:31 AM
I like the trades but before talk of contention in 2013 - we certainly have questions at 2B, SS, 3B and CF. Far from strong up the middle and along with questionable starting pitching doesn't sound like a mix to be a serious contender. We will see who else we add in the next couple of weeks.

mike wants wins
12-07-2012, 08:34 AM
I don't think we know yet, until the top 10 pitchers are signed, and we see what the Twins did.....

birdwatcher
12-07-2012, 08:39 AM
I like the trades but before talk of contention in 2013 - we certainly have questions at 2B, SS, 3B and CF. Far from strong up the middle and along with questionable starting pitching doesn't sound like a mix to be a serious contender. We will see who else we add in the next couple of weeks.

I agree, wavedog. Ryan can maybe fortify the rotation and tweak the roster enough to give us a team with a 50/50 chance to win that night's game. Any expectation for 2013 beyond that isn't realistic. And Ryan has stated that we have to be realistic.

mike wants wins
12-07-2012, 08:57 AM
Realism is great. They realistically could sign 2 really good pitchers if they wanted to. But I think they will not. I think realistic is code for cheap, but I am still hoping I am wrong.....

cmathewson
12-07-2012, 09:03 AM
I favor using the 20-25 million as follows: Sign one guy to a long-term deal in the mid teens. Sign the other guy to a one-year deal in the $6-8 million range. This strategy is made possible by the presence of Meyers, May and Gibson in 2013, who, with Worley and Diamond, would make a decent young rotation by themselves. Understanding that you want six capable guys, one of the guys you sign can be a short timer.

The question is, what will Sanchez cost in $$ and years? If he would accept a 4/56 type of deal, doesn't it make sense to go after him? I like McCarthy and all, but Sanchez is a cut above. Am I estimating too low on him?

gunnarthor
12-07-2012, 09:07 AM
The question is, what will Sanchez cost in $$ and years? If he would accept a 4/56 type of deal, doesn't it make sense to go after him? I like McCarthy and all, but Sanchez is a cut above. Am I estimating too low on him?

Yeah, I think he gets at least 5 years and over 15m per. His agent called a 4/48 offer insulting. Still, I'd be willing to offer him 5/70 and hope that's enough. Also like to see Marcum come here.

birdwatcher
12-07-2012, 09:27 AM
mww, it's also realistic for me to buy a new Mercedes and enter it into a demolition derby. Not gonna do it. Guess I'm just cheap, right?

You're not wrong for wanting Marcum, Sanchez, or whomever at their asking price. That doesn't make you greedy. But refusing to do that doesn't make the Twins cheap either.

mike wants wins
12-07-2012, 09:30 AM
They have a new stadium, and their payroll has three guys that make 5 million or more. I believe that they would be cheap not to sign a legit pitcher this year. But that is an opinion, not a fact, so your mileage may vary.

birdwatcher
12-07-2012, 09:37 AM
Most of these contracts-Blanton, Feldman, Haren- the ones that have set the market- are going to come back to haunt the teams. Especially the ones with multiple years. The future performance value of these guys will not match the market value. The Twins have been guilty of poor contract decisions, as Ryan has admitted repeatedly. Ryan appears to be determined to avoid these contract errors. It's not a matter of being cheap. This club has been spending money, mre than any other team last year on the draft and on international signings.

minn55441
12-07-2012, 09:42 AM
We have punted for the 2013 season. I don't think that is a bad thing, but we are not going to contend this year. If it's 4th and a mile at your own 20 yard line, you don't "go for it", the correct call is to punt and look forward to your next possession.

I like the moves that TR has made. We aren't signing washed up pitchers to one year deals, everything he has done so far insures that we are looking forward to 2014 and beyond. Not sure how he is going to do it, but I would hope that any investment in the pitching FA market would benefit us not only this year but would be even more geared to 2014 and beyond. Sign quality and lock them up for more than 1 or 2 years.

birdwatcher
12-07-2012, 10:07 AM
If your definition of punting is not contending, then I agree, minn55441. My definition is trying to field a .500 team. If Ryan fails to add at least one more pitcher that meets or exceeds the "Diamond Standard", and maybe one more Liriano-type to compete with the 10 other fringy guys for the #5-6 spots, then I will say he punted.

h2oface
12-07-2012, 11:40 AM
2013 is written off as far as I am concerned.

If you are going to do it, do it right.
Trade Mauer. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham.

Mlb rumors reports Terry Ryan will listen to offere for everyone including Morneau and MAUER
so does that mean Ellsbury in cf,and Lester in the rotation?

If you click the link there it takes you to a cheap and irresponsible twitter post, and someone has sent a reply that states they re-listened to the broadcast and Ryan said Morneau and Willingham. Mauer was not mentioned. I have not heard it.

nicksaviking
12-07-2012, 11:52 AM
Will the top pitchers really take this team seriously after they traded both CF's and are reported to be listening to offers for both Mauer and Morneau? True or not, it doesn't sound like a situation that a pitcher who values winning as importantly as money would want to walk into.

johnnydakota
12-07-2012, 11:54 AM
2013 is written off as far as I am concerned.

If you are going to do it, do it right.
Trade Mauer. Trade Morneau. Trade Willingham.

Mlb rumors reports Terry Ryan will listen to offere for everyone including Morneau and MAUER
so does that mean Ellsbury in cf,and Lester in the rotation?

If you click the link there it takes you to a cheap and irresponsible twitter post, and someone has sent a reply that states they re-listened to the broadcast and Ryan said Morneau and Willingham. Mauer was not mentioned. I have not heard it.

Thanks

joeboo_22
12-07-2012, 12:33 PM
I think the Twins are making a play for 2014, and that is why they are hesitant to trade Willingham. Even though they have traded Span and Revere, how many 2014 WAR's do they translate to over the replacements of some combo of Hicks/Benson/Parmelee/Arcia? I'm going to say not too many. And because of that I think thats why I'm against and the FO is against a fire sale. I'd still be shopping Carroll as there appears to be some type of market out there for that type of player, and it would cut some more salary. I think Willingham and Morneau are deadline guys where if they feel they are close in 2014 they might try to resign Morneau, keep Willingham and make a play, if not they would trade both, also depends on the market.

Its all a crap shoot but I don't see the Twins having a worse team after making these moves

mike wants wins
12-07-2012, 12:36 PM
Why do they need to cut salary? Carroll is great at getting on base. There is zero reason to move him.

Oxtung
12-07-2012, 01:28 PM
Why do they need to cut salary? Carroll is great at getting on base. There is zero reason to move him.

Not entirely true. I certainly don't think Carroll's salary will break the bank and I agree there is no reason to be actively looking to cut salary; quite the contrary I think they should be actively looking to spend all of their money. However, Carroll does have a player option for 2014 where he will be 40 years old. If the Twins FO has decided to essentially build for 2014+ then IMO looking to move Jamey Carroll is a good option.

by jiminy
12-07-2012, 01:43 PM
Why sign two $10 million pitchers? The Twins should sign one of the top available free agent pitchers like Grienke, Jackson, McCarthy, or Dempster and fill out the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, Worley and allow someone to earn the fifth spot in training camp (if nobody earns the spot ofr someone is injured, take a cast-off from anther team at the end of Spring Training).

Why sign two good pitchers? I think the premise was they were trying to contend.

Sure they can use castoffs and not-ready minor leaguers; they did that the past two years. But they wouldn't very likely contend.

Personally, though, I'd rather wait another year or two than take on a Grienke type contract. If that didn't work out, they'd be worse off than they are now.

I prefer the approach of stockpiling young pitching shown by the Span and Revere trades. I'd keep doing that and hope to build a playoff-worthy rotation the way the A's did. If they could get similar talent for Morneau and WIllingham, the future could become very bright by 2014.

ashburyjohn
12-07-2012, 01:51 PM
However, Carroll does have a player option for 2014 where he will be 40 years old. If the Twins FO has decided to essentially build for 2014+ then IMO looking to move Jamey Carroll is a good option.

The player option kicks in if he accrues >400 PA in 2013. That makes it somewhat a team option - if he sucks, he'll be on the bench anyway, if he's marginal then his playing time goes down in Aug-Sept if he can't be traded at deadline. Don't know how much, if any, this changes the thinking.

Oxtung
12-07-2012, 02:01 PM
However, Carroll does have a player option for 2014 where he will be 40 years old. If the Twins FO has decided to essentially build for 2014+ then IMO looking to move Jamey Carroll is a good option.

The player option kicks in if he accrues >400 PA in 2013. That makes it somewhat a team option - if he sucks, he'll be on the bench anyway, if he's marginal then his playing time goes down in Aug-Sept if he can't be traded at deadline. Don't know how much, if any, this changes the thinking.

Brian Dozier
Pedro Florimon
Trevor Plouffe

Barring injury I just don't see how he doesn't get >400 PA's.

Kwak
12-07-2012, 02:06 PM
There is plenty of revenue to build for the future and still improve for 2013. Signing veteran pitchers to 1-yr contracts does not deter the Twins from building for the future--if anything it prevents the team from being hamstrung with washed-up players when money and roster spots are needed.

ashburyjohn
12-07-2012, 02:13 PM
However, Carroll does have a player option for 2014 where he will be 40 years old. If the Twins FO has decided to essentially build for 2014+ then IMO looking to move Jamey Carroll is a good option.

The player option kicks in if he accrues >400 PA in 2013. That makes it somewhat a team option - if he sucks, he'll be on the bench anyway, if he's marginal then his playing time goes down in Aug-Sept if he can't be traded at deadline. Don't know how much, if any, this changes the thinking.

Brian Dozier
Pedro Florimon
Trevor Plouffe

Barring injury I just don't see how he doesn't get >400 PA's.

If he's healthy and contributing as the super-sub to an extent he reaches the threshold, then just pay the man his $2M in 2014. I'm just saying that even this minimal risk is pretty well covered - if he turns out to be totally not worth that much money at age 40, chances are his 2013 will take care of the question on its own.

Nick Nelson
12-07-2012, 02:19 PM
I'd still be shopping Carroll as there appears to be some type of market out there for that type of player, and it would cut some more salary.
If you trade Carroll, who's hitting leadoff? Mastroianni? Dozier? Yuck.

If someone knocks your socks off with an offer for Carroll, you take it, but that's not going to happen. He's 39. He's also the only player in the Twins' (apparently finalized) middle-infield mix that is likely to be anywhere close to average. That's worth a lot more to the Twins than $3.75 million.

Jim H
12-07-2012, 02:33 PM
One of the things that Ryan does well, generally, is evaluate talent. While I haven't seen enough, at the major league level, to have a lot of confidence in either Florimon or Dozier. At seems that perhaps Ryan has. Clearly, it doesn't seem to be a priority to add middle infield talent. It looks to me, like the top of the order will be pretty weak to start the season. I expect Hicks still needs minor league seasoning and even if Benson takes the center field job, that wouldn't address the top of the lineup.

Maybe Ryan thinks that Mastroianni and some combination of Dozier, Carroll, Plouffe, can fill the 1st 2 spots in the order. I actually hope so, or you are going to with about 4 darn weak bats in a row somewhere in the order.

Rosterman
12-07-2012, 03:03 PM
Who is batting 1 and 2. If they aren't good, Mauer doesn't get to hit...much. Who is playing cenetrfield. We gave up two leadoff hitters for a number nine spot in the batting order. ho is at second and short. How will they play together,

Yes, the Twins are two starters away from having a rotation. And, don't forget, for all the grips of 2012, I felt we had a chance with Pavano, Baker, Blackburn, Liriano and Marquis (plus Swarzak/Duensing/Hendriks as backup). 4 of the 5 should've started 30+ games and thrown 200 innings and all win more games than they would lose. You would've thunk. But we all know what happened.

Right now, today, I would predict a Twins line-up of Benson, Carroll, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Parmell, Plouffe, Florimon. A bench of Butera, Dozier, Mastro and someone undetermined.

A starting rotation of Worley, Diamond, Gibson/Hendriks and two guys to be determined.

A bullpen of Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Burnett, Robertson, Pressly, Roienke.

There are defense problems in the outfield and infield. They is still the clutch-hitting that plagued the team alst year. Without Revere and Casilla, the Twins lost a lot of stolen bases and MAYBE toe ability to make something extra happen in the gameplan.

If Morneau is traded, the Twins need an established outfielder. If Mauer would go, the Twins need a better-than-average catcher. Hopefully, both could bring some major-league ready bodies to the game (Mauer for 4 Red Sox, Morneau for a pitcher and a 4th outfielder or starting infielder). I can live with Parmelee at first. I can almost live with Doumit and another person catching (not Butera). I can't live with 2-3 rookies in the outfield (sorry Hicks, Arcia and Benson -- I still see Hicks one solid year away, and Arcia coming up early and learning and flaying on the job).

The Hot Stove season still has two solid months yet. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope the Twins can do something with $25-30 million. They have my money, I want to se them spend it rather than look at it!

TheLeviathan
12-07-2012, 03:59 PM
My outlook on 2013 is greatly discouraged every time I hear how vital Jamey Carroll is so he can hit at the top of our lineup.

Just sayin.

Kobs
12-07-2012, 04:22 PM
Call me crazy, but I have a hard time considering a guy with a .343 OBP as "great" at getting on base.

I don't expect three OPSs over ..800 this season. Tough to win with that.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 04:24 PM
Not sure if you guys are aware of a potential BIZARRE change in the NFL, but it involves having like 4th and 25 or 30 at their own 30 or something after a touchdown or field goal. It's completely strange to think about a team punting after having just scored. The Twins have just scored and cannot be said to be punting. They are bound to now get Dempster or Marcum, or they could even get both if they go up to 25 million to spend.

The 2013 team is already a bit better with Worley than Revere anyway.

Musk21
12-07-2012, 04:27 PM
Another SP option off the board. McCarthy to DBacks per Heyman.

mike wants wins
12-07-2012, 04:29 PM
4th and 15...it is an intriguing idea, but they would need to not allow a first down by penalty....too easy to get interference or holding....for the Twins, I think we are just in the third inning of the off-season....

TheLeviathan
12-07-2012, 04:49 PM
The 2013 team is already a bit better with Worley than Revere anyway.

And Span?

diehardtwinsfan
12-07-2012, 04:52 PM
Call me crazy, but I have a hard time considering a guy with a .343 OBP as "great" at getting on base.

I don't expect three OPSs over ..800 this season. Tough to win with that.

I agree with your first point, though I think there are 5 guys who have a shot of cracking the .800 mark. Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham should do it relatively easily. Parmalee and Plouffe are question marks, but it is hardly a given that these guys will stink...

TheLeviathan
12-07-2012, 04:59 PM
I agree with your first point, though I think there are 5 guys who have a shot of cracking the .800 mark. Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham should do it relatively easily. Parmalee and Plouffe are question marks, but it is hardly a given that these guys will stink...

Achieving .800+ is hardly the bar for stink or not-stink.

jokin
12-07-2012, 04:59 PM
The Twins have zero intention to "punt" for 2013.. Ryan made that very clear again today in more than one interview. He said they intend to shore up the rotation. He may misfire, but he isn't punting.

Now, it could certainly be that Ryan's expectation is to field a .500 ballclub at best for 2013. Isn't it unrealistic to expect a contending club for 2013 AND these great strides towards respectable future results? So, some of you might describe efforts to produce a .500 ballclub a "punt". I don't.

Not surprisingly, you're a nest-half-full guy. What else would you expect Ryan to say in this situation? Read his actions, they speak far more clearly than his words.

And of course, jokin, true to form, you are a half nest empty guy. Congratulations. Thanks for the advice, by the way, to rely on Ryan's actions and not his words. Perhaps you should take your own advice, jokin. Ryan's stiil going to take more action, but you judge him on his words and accuse him of various forms dishonesty, don't you? Isn't that hypocritical of you? Isn't that perhaps a form of dishonesty in and of itself?

I realize he's your cocktail party buddy and all, but unlike you, I have no emotional stake on this subject. His actions, like anyone in his political position means you always must look at what they do and "interpret" everything they say- at the top of the list this would include collaborating and conspiring with Carl and Bud to contract the team (and come away with his own fat payday on the deal).

jokin
12-07-2012, 05:03 PM
I agree with your first point, though I think there are 5 guys who have a shot of cracking the .800 mark. Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham should do it relatively easily. Parmalee and Plouffe are question marks, but it is hardly a given that these guys will stink...

Achieving .800+ is hardly the bar for stink or not-stink.

Won't the big drop-off of OBP at the top of the order (ie Carroll/Dozier, playing 2B- batting 2nd in Gardy's feverish mind) tend to hurt the production numbers in the middle of the line-up somewhat?

jokin
12-07-2012, 05:05 PM
The 2013 team is already a bit better with Worley than Revere anyway.

And Span?

That's just it, too many posters are pretending to themselves that this never happened.

jokin
12-07-2012, 05:06 PM
Another SP option off the board. McCarthy to DBacks per Heyman.

Hey, they're still in on the Kevin Correia sweepstatkes, so there's that.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-07-2012, 05:09 PM
Another SP option off the board. McCarthy to DBacks per Heyman.

Hey, they're still in on the Kevin Correia sweepstatkes, so there's that.

Yayyyy............................................ .:banghead:

jokin
12-07-2012, 05:25 PM
mww, it's also realistic for me to buy a new Mercedes and enter it into a demolition derby. Not gonna do it. Guess I'm just cheap, right?



You're not wrong for wanting Marcum, Sanchez, or whomever at their asking price. That doesn't make you greedy. But refusing to do that doesn't make the Twins cheap either.

Birdwatcher's "cheap-cheap" sliding scale of expectations

Gunnarthor's followup quote:

"Yeah, I think he gets at least 5 years and over 15m per. His agent called a 4/48 offer insulting. Still, I'd be willing to offer him 5/70 and hope that's enough. Also like to see Marcum come here."


Gunnarthor said it best, I believe this was the scenario you were suggesting was what Ryan was seeking, and you would hold him to this. This is the scenario that would have me doing handstands and cartwheels and singing TR praises.

This aint gonna happen.

This wasn't gonna happen once Span was moved. This is why you are now apparently in agreement with Ryan, ie calling a .500 record, "contending".

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 05:45 PM
The 2013 team is already a bit better with Worley than Revere anyway.

And Span?

Well no, of course, but the next move after trading away Span was not one that furthered the punting at all.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 05:47 PM
Giving up would mean trading Revere for prospects only. It would also involve trading Morneau for prospects.

diehardtwinsfan
12-07-2012, 06:26 PM
I agree with your first point, though I think there are 5 guys who have a shot of cracking the .800 mark. Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham should do it relatively easily. Parmalee and Plouffe are question marks, but it is hardly a given that these guys will stink...

Achieving .800+ is hardly the bar for stink or not-stink.

No, it tends to be the bar for pretty decent hitters. I'm not sure what to think about their chances in 2013 right now unless they go still go out and get some guys, but the offense isn't going to be terrible (sans injuries of course).

Kwak
12-07-2012, 07:18 PM
mww, it's also realistic for me to buy a new Mercedes and enter it into a demolition derby. Not gonna do it. Guess I'm just cheap, right?



You're not wrong for wanting Marcum, Sanchez, or whomever at their asking price. That doesn't make you greedy. But refusing to do that doesn't make the Twins cheap either.

Birdwatcher's "cheap-cheap" sliding scale of expectations

Gunnarthor's followup quote:

"Yeah, I think he gets at least 5 years and over 15m per. His agent called a 4/48 offer insulting. Still, I'd be willing to offer him 5/70 and hope that's enough. Also like to see Marcum come here."





Gunnarthor said it best, I believe this was the scenario you were suggesting was what Ryan was seeking, and you would hold him to this. This is the scenario that would have me doing handstands and cartwheels and singing TR praises.

This aint gonna happen.

This wasn't gonna happen once Span was moved. This is why you are now apparently in agreement with Ryan, ie calling a .500 record, "contending".

Sanchez isn't signing here--any offer MN makes, gets shopped. At a certain the ability to play on a winning team supercedes a slight increment in salary. Discussion of the top tier of FA is pointless.
.500 ball isn't contending, but it represents a huge improvement. Contending? For another 1st round elimination? Been there done that. There has to be several marqee players to make a playoff run feasible--and the Twins don't have them yet!
But sound drafts and there can be a team that can contend for a World Series, not another ALC Division blah. .500 ball after two seasons of ~.400 ball and signing free agents starts to look feasible.:go:

jimbo92107
12-07-2012, 07:35 PM
I just looked at the 40-man roster. Where's Sam Deduno?

JB_Iowa
12-07-2012, 08:07 PM
Is it punting if you were never on the field in the first place?

As far as I'm concerned the Twins were pretty much stuck in the locker room the last 2 seasons.

At least now it looks like TR may be interested in playing ball again.

lightfoot789
12-07-2012, 08:43 PM
I don't see the Twins as punting and believe that they can make strong strides to respectability in 2013. The Brewers got rid of Grienke when they were playing so poorly for most of the season and then made a mad push for the playoffs when they brought up young pitching prospects and infield prospects for remainder of the year. There is something to say about new blood and nothing to lose mentality. Watch for Twins in 2nd half of 2013 and beyond. The Tool players are arriving soon.

one_eyed_jack
12-07-2012, 09:44 PM
Let me pose this question: how many games will it take to win the AL Central in 2013?

In 2012, Detroit won it with 88, 3 games better than Chicago. Nobody else had more than 72.

I think we're looking at a win total in the high 80's again - tops. If the Tigers stumble, it could be mid-80's. I don't see dramatic improvement from any of the other teams, the Whities will probably take a step back.

Could the Twins achieve 85-89 wins? Not likely, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility either. If the Twins were in the AL West or East, forget it. But remaining competitive in this field is within reach, and quite achievable if some things break the Twins way.

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 09:59 PM
Let me pose this question: how many games will it take to win the AL Central in 2013?

In 2012, Detroit won it with 88, 3 games better than Chicago. Nobody else had more than 72.

I think we're looking at a win total in the high 80's again - tops. If the Tigers stumble, it could be mid-80's. I don't see dramatic improvement from any of the other teams, the Whities will probably take a step back.

Could the Twins achieve 85-89 wins? Not likely, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility either. If the Twins were in the AL West or East, forget it. But remaining competitive in this field is within reach, and quite achievable if some things break the Twins way.

Lets say its 88 games like last year... The Twins won 66 last year. Just 16 more wins and you are 82-80 and that puts you in contention. If you are in contention. Deadline deals can be made to improve the squad... The team will play with more competitiveness. Everything can change.

16 more wins... That's one more win every ten games... If anyone thinks that isn't do-able... They lack something or haven't really put it in perspective.

Shane Wahl
12-08-2012, 12:36 AM
I think that Hicks 2013 would be better than Revere 2013 overall. So this makes the trade, in terms of 2013, a Span-for-Worley swap. A lot is going to depend on the next move the Twins make. If Dempster, Jackson, or Marcum are signed by the Twins I think the team could be in for substantial improvement. Last year after that horrendous start and the pitching meltdown they were really a 75-win caliber team (remember: the pitching was terrible, Plouffe was not utilized properly for awhile, Carroll was in a big slump, Morneau was coming back from a host of injuries, and Parmelee was up and down in a ridiculous fashion. It is possible that a Span/Revere - Hicks/Parmelee swap is actually a good switch for 2013 offensively. The pitching is already better and should get substantially better with just a bit of spending. A plus-.500 team seems reasonable. What that means for the division solely depends on the Tigers and . . . the Royals . . . ?? The other two are not going to succeed.

glunn
12-08-2012, 01:40 AM
Let me pose this question: how many games will it take to win the AL Central in 2013?

In 2012, Detroit won it with 88, 3 games better than Chicago. Nobody else had more than 72.

I think we're looking at a win total in the high 80's again - tops. If the Tigers stumble, it could be mid-80's. I don't see dramatic improvement from any of the other teams, the Whities will probably take a step back.

Could the Twins achieve 85-89 wins? Not likely, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility either. If the Twins were in the AL West or East, forget it. But remaining competitive in this field is within reach, and quite achievable if some things break the Twins way.

Lets say its 88 games like last year... The Twins won 66 last year. Just 16 more wins and you are 82-80 and that puts you in contention. If you are in contention. Deadline deals can be made to improve the squad... The team will play with more competitiveness. Everything can change.

16 more wins... That's one more win every ten games... If anyone thinks that isn't do-able... They lack something or haven't really put it in perspective.

I would love to be wrong on this, but I don't think that this is likely, considering that there are only two decent starters on board, a pretty big hole in CF, a weak middle infield, and no great defenders in the outfield. I think that it is more likely that the Twins will lose 90+ games next year.

Riverbrian
12-08-2012, 02:06 AM
Jeez Glunn... You crush me... I have always counted on you to be Pro... even on the rainy days... You ain't the con type.

It's why everyone likes you.

Actually... For complete truth with my above scenario... Winning one more game out of ten is certainly do-able. But... Losing one more game out of ten is just as do-able. I just don't like bringing up that part.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 03:02 AM
Let me pose this question: how many games will it take to win the AL Central in 2013?

In 2012, Detroit won it with 88, 3 games better than Chicago. Nobody else had more than 72.

I think we're looking at a win total in the high 80's again - tops. If the Tigers stumble, it could be mid-80's. I don't see dramatic improvement from any of the other teams, the Whities will probably take a step back.

Could the Twins achieve 85-89 wins? Not likely, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility either. If the Twins were in the AL West or East, forget it. But remaining competitive in this field is within reach, and quite achievable if some things break the Twins way.

Lets say its 88 games like last year... The Twins won 66 last year. Just 16 more wins and you are 82-80 and that puts you in contention. If you are in contention. Deadline deals can be made to improve the squad... The team will play with more competitiveness. Everything can change.

16 more wins... That's one more win every ten games... If anyone thinks that isn't do-able... They lack something or haven't really put it in perspective.

I would love to be wrong on this, but I don't think that this is likely, considering that there are only two decent starters on board, a pretty big hole in CF, a weak middle infield, and no great defenders in the outfield. I think that it is more likely that the Twins will lose 90+ games next year.

The off-season isn't even CLOSE to over yet. The Twins still have a ton of money they can spend. It's really pointless to start playing the whole "how many games will the Twins win next year:" when they still have 3+ months to fill the rest of the roster.

2 decent starters in the rotation is one more then we had 95% of last year, so there is a start!

Twins Twerp
12-08-2012, 03:29 AM
Let me pose this question: how many games will it take to win the AL Central in 2013?

In 2012, Detroit won it with 88, 3 games better than Chicago. Nobody else had more than 72.

I think we're looking at a win total in the high 80's again - tops. If the Tigers stumble, it could be mid-80's. I don't see dramatic improvement from any of the other teams, the Whities will probably take a step back.

Could the Twins achieve 85-89 wins? Not likely, but I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility either. If the Twins were in the AL West or East, forget it. But remaining competitive in this field is within reach, and quite achievable if some things break the Twins way.

Lets say its 88 games like last year... The Twins won 66 last year. Just 16 more wins and you are 82-80 and that puts you in contention. If you are in contention. Deadline deals can be made to improve the squad... The team will play with more competitiveness. Everything can change.

16 more wins... That's one more win every ten games... If anyone thinks that isn't do-able... They lack something or haven't really put it in perspective.

I would love to be wrong on this, but I don't think that this is likely, considering that there are only two decent starters on board, a pretty big hole in CF, a weak middle infield, and no great defenders in the outfield. I think that it is more likely that the Twins will lose 90+ games next year.

The off-season isn't even CLOSE to over yet. The Twins still have a ton of money they can spend. It's really pointless to start playing the whole "how many games will the Twins win next year:" when they still have 3+ months to fill the rest of the roster.

2 decent starters in the rotation is one more then we had 95% of last year, so there is a start!

Easy to be an ahole at 3 in the morning vodkadbag. I agree it is early to get down on offseason but your tone is unneeded.

one_eyed_jack
12-08-2012, 08:48 AM
Simmer down, people. Most of the discussions on this board are pointless when you get down to it, be we all needs our Twins fix.

Even with the T-Wolves, my winter distraction, poised for their best season a long, long time, I still need a regular hit of baseball. And I haven't quite adjusted to the idea that the T-Wolves are relevant and the Twins are not. It's weird.

Nick Nelson
12-08-2012, 03:45 PM
The off-season isn't even CLOSE to over yet. The Twins still have a ton of money they can spend. It's really pointless to start playing the whole "how many games will the Twins win next year:" when they still have 3+ months to fill the rest of the roster.

2 decent starters in the rotation is one more then we had 95% of last year, so there is a start!

Easy to be an ahole at 3 in the morning vodkadbag. I agree it is early to get down on offseason but your tone is unneeded.

Did I miss something? Seems like your tone is a whole lot more contentious than his. And he's right -- it is pointless to be speculating how many wins the currently assembled roster would win. TR is probably not even close to finished yet.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 03:52 PM
The off-season isn't even CLOSE to over yet. The Twins still have a ton of money they can spend. It's really pointless to start playing the whole "how many games will the Twins win next year:" when they still have 3+ months to fill the rest of the roster.

2 decent starters in the rotation is one more then we had 95% of last year, so there is a start!

Easy to be an ahole at 3 in the morning vodkadbag. I agree it is early to get down on offseason but your tone is unneeded.

Did I miss something? Seems like your tone is a whole lot more contentious than his. And he's right -- it is pointless to be speculating how many wins the currently assembled roster would win. TR is probably not even close to finished yet.

LOL this explains the private message he sent me at 4am with only the words "Suck my Poop" in the message box.

I'm not sure how I was being a jerk there, I was just pointing out how its a little silly and premature to jump all over Terry Ryan right now when this off-season when something like 80% of free agents are still available! Also it doesn't make sense to start making predictions when our roster is only about 70% complete (60% of rotation still needs to be filled etc etc)

If anything Ryan needs to be given some benefit of the doubt moving forward, he had some real nice pick ups last year, and has done a great job so far this year addressing our pitching depth in the minors. It seems like people have a hard time distinguishing between his track record and the track record of Bill Smith.

glunn
12-08-2012, 04:47 PM
Jeez Glunn... You crush me... I have always counted on you to be Pro... even on the rainy days... You ain't the con type.

It's why everyone likes you.

Actually... For complete truth with my above scenario... Winning one more game out of ten is certainly do-able. But... Losing one more game out of ten is just as do-able. I just don't like bringing up that part.

Hey, Brian, I am praying that your dream comes true. I am having a hard life right now and was struck by a sudden wave of reality.

glunn
12-08-2012, 04:54 PM
The off-season isn't even CLOSE to over yet. The Twins still have a ton of money they can spend. It's really pointless to start playing the whole "how many games will the Twins win next year:" when they still have 3+ months to fill the rest of the roster.

2 decent starters in the rotation is one more then we had 95% of last year, so there is a start!

Easy to be an ahole at 3 in the morning vodkadbag. I agree it is early to get down on offseason but your tone is unneeded.

Did I miss something? Seems like your tone is a whole lot more contentious than his. And he's right -- it is pointless to be speculating how many wins the currently assembled roster would win. TR is probably not even close to finished yet.

I don't want to be contentious, but to me the discussion is not completely pointless. It's sort of like can Superman beat up Thor -- never really going to happen but interesting to talk about while we wait for something more real to develop. And I agree that the name calling is not productive -- we are all Twins fanatics and therefore brothers who share a sacred bond,

Riverbrian
12-08-2012, 05:32 PM
[QUOTE=glunn;69270
I don't want to be contentious, but to me the discussion is not completely pointless. It's sort of like can Superman beat up Thor -- never really going to happen but interesting to talk about while we wait for something more real to develop. And I agree that the name calling is not productive -- we are all Twins fanatics and therefore brothers who share a sacred bond,[/QUOTE]

Superman can't beat up Thor!!! Easy call... Thor would win... He's a God... Superman is an alien from another planet.

How bout a Tiger vs Lion?

Or better Yet... Justin Morneau vs. Joe Mauer?

twinsnorth49
12-08-2012, 06:53 PM
[QUOTE=glunn;69270
I don't want to be contentious, but to me the discussion is not completely pointless. It's sort of like can Superman beat up Thor -- never really going to happen but interesting to talk about while we wait for something more real to develop. And I agree that the name calling is not productive -- we are all Twins fanatics and therefore brothers who share a sacred bond,

Superman can't beat up Thor!!! Easy call... Thor would win... He's a God... Superman is an alien from another planet.

How bout a Tiger vs Lion?

Or better Yet... Justin Morneau vs. Joe Mauer?[/QUOTE]

All the Tigers in Africa couldn't beat up Justin Morneau.