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View Full Version : Article: Does Ben Revere’s Departure Portent Justin Morneau Trade?



John Bonnes
12-06-2012, 02:55 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1234-Does-Ben-Revere’s-Departure-Portend-Justin-Morneau-Trade

Dave T
12-06-2012, 03:14 PM
Other teams are going to try to get us to sell low. If Ryan learns nothing else from the Revere trade, it's "sell high". I don't want Morneau to go anywhere, but if you've gotta trade him, then wait until July and hope he is ahead of Cabrera by then on the Triple Crown stats.

jacku641
12-06-2012, 03:17 PM
Here's another scenario that says they don't trade him. What if Morneau tells the Twins that this is it. On advice of doctors and at the request of his wife he's going to retire after this season and would like to finish where he started. I have no reason to believe that this is true, but I'm just saying...

Brandon
12-06-2012, 03:24 PM
2 year 20-24 million extension after spring training. Morneau retires a Twin. I don't see him getting traded.

gunnarthor
12-06-2012, 03:26 PM
I think we keep him til the deadline.

Seth Stohs
12-06-2012, 03:28 PM
yeah, we're talking a lot about CF with Benson/Hicks/Mastroianni... however, Arcia is probably the most big-league ready of the bunch, and if RF were to open up, I think they'd be pretty comfortable going to him.

tjsyam921
12-06-2012, 03:32 PM
If the Twins had a good lead off hitter (Hicks?), a combination of these 3 for $30 million Shawn Marcum, Joe Saunders, Kevin Correia, Brett Myers, Brandon McCarthy, Jair Jurrjens to go with Worley and Diamond for our rotation. I see no reason to get rid of Morny since we should be able to compete with that rotation and line up if Plouffe plays well and someone steps up at both 2nd and short.

Petey Javo
12-06-2012, 03:39 PM
Since we are building for 2014 I would have a pretty high price tag for Morneau right now as his value can easily go up with a few hot hitting months. This guy was going blow for blow with miguel for the triple crown not that long ago. Plus I think there is a legit chance of getting some a discount if we choose to extend him due to his connections here. It may be risky but that is what we need right now as many affordable high risk high upside guys to maximize our odds of hit the proverbial home run.

ericchri
12-06-2012, 03:41 PM
yeah, we're talking a lot about CF with Benson/Hicks/Mastroianni... however, Arcia is probably the most big-league ready of the bunch, and if RF were to open up, I think they'd be pretty comfortable going to him.

Arcia is closer than Hicks? Man I want more information on these guys. While Arcia looks like a better overall hitter, I thought he still had a loop in his swing or something like that? Or am I misremembering that? Most of what I've read is that both probably aren't quite ready yet, but I thought Hicks was supposedly the best defensive OF (including best arm) in the Twins system, and I can live with struggles at the plate if he plays stellar defense. I just don't know anything about Arcia as a defensive player.

greengoblinrulz
12-06-2012, 03:49 PM
yeah, we're talking a lot about CF with Benson/Hicks/Mastroianni... however, Arcia is probably the most big-league ready of the bunch, and if RF were to open up, I think they'd be pretty comfortable going to him.

Arcia is closer than Hicks? Man I want more information on these guys. While Arcia looks like a better overall hitter, I thought he still had a loop in his swing or something like that? Or am I misremembering that? Most of what I've read is that both probably aren't quite ready yet, but I thought Hicks was supposedly the best defensive OF (including best arm) in the Twins system, and I can live with struggles at the plate if he plays stellar defense. I just don't know anything about Arcia as a defensive player.

Hicks, Buxton & Benson are the 3 best, by far, as all have Gold Glove potential.
Arcia has been compared to Jason Kubel---pre knee injury---defensively...if you remember how he was(much more range)

Jeff P
12-06-2012, 04:09 PM
I think your first point is the one that many here underestimate: it must be pretty frustrating for season ticket holders right now. While I would be in favor of trading Morneau for good price, I can't blame them if they turn down a fair offer in part to keep a recognizable face for the fans.

Oxtung
12-06-2012, 04:14 PM
Morneau has always seemed to be a better fit for a July trade to me. His salary is much less of a problem at that point and he, hopefully, have another successful half season under his belt. Of course resigning him is still a possibility but if that happens I have to think Parmelee's days are numbered.

BeefMaster
12-06-2012, 04:35 PM
Maybe this doesn't count because it wasn't a particularly big contract or particularly good prospects, but the Twins have thrown salary relief into a trade before - they picked up most of Brendan Harris' contract when they dumped him on the Orioles in the JJ Hardy trade.

diehardtwinsfan
12-06-2012, 04:39 PM
Morneau has always seemed to be a better fit for a July trade to me. His salary is much less of a problem at that point and he, hopefully, have another successful half season under his belt. Of course resigning him is still a possibility but if that happens I have to think Parmelee's days are numbered.

They still need a DH, and an aging Morneau could spend some time there as well. I'm not against keeping both of them if Mauer ends up catching more and Doumit ends up more as the backup catcher with an occasional start at DH or RF... Parmalee could be an offensive force, and a healthy Morneau most definitely is one.

Oxtung
12-06-2012, 04:51 PM
Morneau has always seemed to be a better fit for a July trade to me. His salary is much less of a problem at that point and he, hopefully, have another successful half season under his belt. Of course resigning him is still a possibility but if that happens I have to think Parmelee's days are numbered.

They still need a DH, and an aging Morneau could spend some time there as well. I'm not against keeping both of them if Mauer ends up catching more and Doumit ends up more as the backup catcher with an occasional start at DH or RF... Parmalee could be an offensive force, and a healthy Morneau most definitely is one.

Mauer is 30 years old this year so I guess I see him out from behind the plate within the next 2 years. He has guaranteed money through 2018 and I have to think the the Twins are concerned about him holding up that long, I know I would be concerned if he stays behind the dish that whole time. If anyone wants to do some research it would make an interesting blog topic on when great catchers have started to move from behind the plate and how that affected their career length and quality. If Morneau gets another, let's say 3 year contract, that locks up DH and 1B. I just think Parmelee isn't going to stick long term in the OF given the prospects moving up in the next year. I guess maybe the Twins could trade Willingham and leave Parmelee in the OF with 2/3 of Benson/Hicks/Arcia depending on who pans out.

savvyspy
12-06-2012, 04:57 PM
I think your first point is the one that many here underestimate: it must be pretty frustrating for season ticket holders right now. While I would be in favor of trading Morneau for good price, I can't blame them if they turn down a fair offer in part to keep a recognizable face for the fans.

What's frustrating for this 8 year season ticket holder is back to back 90 loss seasons and being told we should keep a $14 million "ambassador" rather than trade him for young talent that will ultimately lead the team back to 90 WIN seasons.

Unfortunately this team can lose 90 games just as easily with Morneau as the can without him. I'd like to at least see a payoff down the line. There was NOTHING ryan could do to make this team a factor in 2013 anyway. They have taken the exact correct approach.

Kwak
12-06-2012, 05:24 PM
There is a "winter fever" if you will where GM's make speculative trades and free agent signings for the purpose of substantially improving their team--just witness the PHL/Twins trade. Morneau hasn't been (publicly) dangled, but it is no secret to other GMs that the Twins are rebuilding--they will have inquired about Morneau. There are multiple teams thinking of Josh Hamilton. But when he signs--the losers will resort to Plan B--and I would expect serious inquiries about Morneau's availability and "cost". The iron is hot and will get white hot soon for Morneau. Just ask youself how excited you were when you read that Revere was traded--for major league pitching! and more! PHL is excited about Revere. Believe me if Morneau is traded there will be major buzz in his new team--and these guys will gladly (over)pay! July? Pitchers/catchers/salary dumps--the time is right after Hamilton signs.

Jim H
12-06-2012, 05:30 PM
While I wouldn't write off 2013 yet, it is clear that even with good performances from whoever is picked up to fill out the rotation, a lot of other things will have to go very well for the Twins to be competitive. Ryan seemed to indicate this afternoon on MLB Network that he is not looking to trade anyone else. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen.

I kind of think that the Twins really need to look at Parmelee and Plouffe. They need to show they can actually hit for more than a month during the season. Plouffe needs to show he can play 3B. If Parmelee is adequate in RF well that helps as well. Keeping Morneau around for a few more seasons wouldn't be a bad thing. I really doubt if Parmelee or Plouffe are ever going to be true middle of the order bats. If Arcia is going to be, it isn't to going be immediately , even if he is nearly ready to play in the majors.

Whether the Twins are contenders or not in 2013, I think they have to determine whether Dozier and/or Floriman can actually be big league starters. Quite possibly by the middle of the season the Twins might know who they want to keep out of their secondary pieces. It will make it easier to decide whether or not to trade Willingham or Morneau. And perhaps even more importantly, what they need to target in return.

ashburyjohn
12-06-2012, 05:34 PM
What's frustrating for this 8 year season ticket holder is back to back 90 loss seasons

Do you think this is the floor for where the 2013 season could go, if they do a complete fire sale? How does 110 losses grab you?

ashburyjohn
12-06-2012, 05:35 PM
If Ryan learns nothing else from the Revere trade, it's "sell high".

Yeah, Terry Ryan's OJT is just about complete. :)

jmlease1
12-06-2012, 06:12 PM
I think it's hard to know on Morneau, but I would guess no trade.

If the Twins manage to sign a pitcher like Dempster or Marcum to shore up the rotation further, add an additional vet for the back end/insurance, suddenly the rotation looks solid with Marcum/Dempster, Diamond, Worley, Gibson, Hendriks/De Vries/Walters/Waldrop/FA #2. It's one thing to go in the season needing 2 guys to step up from that last pack, another to be looking for 1.

Honestly, they should still have money to look for help at 2B/SS to have insurance against Dozier/Florimon not being ready/MLB-quality AND get a quality 3B option in case Plouffe was a fluke. Carroll slides back into the utility position he's best suited for and suddenly you've got a very nice bullpen coupled with a decent rotation and a solid lineup...why not ride that team, see how they do with a healthy Justin Morneau in the middle of the lineup (and hopefully after a full healthy year, no longer bailing out on pitches from LHers). If it doesn't work, you can look at dealing him at the deadline, but that's a team you can sell to the public as worth watching.

The rotation still wouldn't be top-end, but there'd be 4 pitchers who would qualify as being reasonable #2-#3 starters. And a massive improvement over last season. Offensive drop-off is likely in CF and LF (Willingham will likely regress a little due to age), but there's potential improvement (overall) for RF, 3B and 1B. Unlikely the offense at SS & 2B can get much worse! So why couldn't the offense be better?

No need to rush Arcia at that point. Progress in 2013 is a good idea to set up 2014, from a marketing standpoint...and from a team standpoint. Isn't it better to stagger out your rookie development a little if you can?

Chris in Osaka
12-06-2012, 06:39 PM
Time to double down on the future and move both Morneau and Willingham. The team can't compete in 2013 and shouldn't cling to any such illusions.

kab21
12-06-2012, 06:45 PM
I don't understand what the Revere trade has to do with Morneau. he's just as available as he was before. The reason that I don't think Morneau will get traded (in the offseason) is that I don't think a team will trade a good prospect for him (even if the Twins pay half). If they do then he is gone.

Joe
12-06-2012, 07:05 PM
Hypothetical......

Would you trade Justin Morneau for Brian Matusz and PTBNL - Kevin Gausmann?

I think I would.

kab21
12-06-2012, 07:29 PM
Morneau might not even get you Matusz. Gausman is completely off the table for the Twins.

Top Gun
12-06-2012, 07:37 PM
I think the trading is about done! It's time for the buying to start!

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-06-2012, 08:34 PM
Morneau might not even get you Matusz. Gausman is completely off the table for the Twins.

And you know what? I wouldnt mind getting Brian Matusz. Gausman is untouchable exactly right.

kab21
12-06-2012, 08:40 PM
I'll pass on Matusz for Morneau. All indications are that he's a lefty RP'er now. Arrieta or even Britton OTOH are more interesting.

jokin
12-06-2012, 08:57 PM
Morneau might not even get you Matusz. Gausman is completely off the table for the Twins.

Gausman is probably unreachable, but what happens to the Nat's Desperation Meter if they lose Adam LaRoche? There are still enough quality prospects in the Nats org to get a good multi-player deal if they really hit the panic button.

kab21
12-06-2012, 09:03 PM
Gausman is probably unreachable, but what happens to the Nat's Desperation Meter if they lose Adam LaRoche? There are still enough quality prospects in the Nats org to get a good multi-player deal if they really hit the panic button.

Are you mixing up the O's and Nats on purpose or accidentally? The Nats already have Mike Morse to play 1B and the O's have a good offense but pretty weak pitching so I don't understand why they would be trading a pitching prospect for a hitter.

Regardless of any desperation meter a guy like Gausman won't be traded for Morneau. And not Willingham either.

OldManWinter
12-06-2012, 09:47 PM
I think Morneau will remain a Twin, mid season may have a different answer if the team is struggling or there is an offer too good to be true.

Morneau is still a health risk, to sell now you are selling when his value is low.

nicksaviking
12-06-2012, 10:02 PM
The Twins would need to require another huge overpay because point number four was most apt. It's not like his salary will now go toward free agent pitching. Losing his salary would just help to set the bar lower for future payrolls.

Kobs
12-06-2012, 10:34 PM
I'm not sure what the market is for a $14,000,000 first baseman with a.267/.333/.444 line and a history of major head injuries.

glunn
12-06-2012, 11:43 PM
I'm not sure what the market is for a $14,000,000 first baseman with a.267/.333/.444 line and a history of major head injuries.









On the other hand, a contender at the trade deadline might be willing to give up a really good prospect for a former MVP if he is having a good season.

Shane Wahl
12-07-2012, 12:45 AM
Parmelee has to be in RF at the moment (yikes) and Morneau is safe. Morneau now is a deadline deal and that is fine (Parmelee takes over at 1B and Arcia takes over in RF).

This is all about Aaron Hicks.

jokin
12-07-2012, 12:54 AM
Gausman is probably unreachable, but what happens to the Nat's Desperation Meter if they lose Adam LaRoche? There are still enough quality prospects in the Nats org to get a good multi-player deal if they really hit the panic button.

Are you mixing up the O's and Nats on purpose or accidentally? The Nats already have Mike Morse to play 1B and the O's have a good offense but pretty weak pitching so I don't understand why they would be trading a pitching prospect for a hitter.

Regardless of any desperation meter a guy like Gausman won't be traded for Morneau. And not Willingham either.


The Orioles have publicly stated they are in search of a 1B/DH power hitter. The Nats, in possibly losing LaRoche, lose a LH 1B power bat, Morse is RH and having a lefty power bat may or may not be a higher Nat priority.

I agree a guy like Gausman wouldn't be traded straight-up for either of them, but a package that includes a top Twins prospect, who knows? The Orioles already have Dylan Bundy and if they think they are one or two pieces away from a shot at the pennant, who knows what they might offer?- they also have another raw, big hard-throwing SP and blocked 3B and 2B at the top of their MiL prospect list.

Regarding Morse and the Nats, with their OF now full and Brian Goodwin knocking at the door, they might even be willing to swap him to the Twins in some kind of deal. Another RH power bat and ability to play 1B/OF/DH would fit nicely at Target and the Twins lineup, both contracts expire after 2013, but Morse only makes $6.75M (who might like MN and wish to re-sign). Longshot, but again, worth inquiring about, Eric Davis, Matt Purke, Ryan Mattheus are worth putting on the table- they've alredy thrown Drew Storen out there, they also have a couple of intriguing power hitting MiL 3B.

And yes, what with the just-completed epic trade with my favorite NL team and its neighbor (my 2nd fav AL team, I'm from MD originally) just to the east, my conflation-radar goes off simultaneously for both when one is mentioned.:th_alc:

jokin
12-07-2012, 01:11 AM
Parmelee has to be in RF at the moment (yikes) and Morneau is safe. Morneau now is a deadline deal and that is fine (Parmelee takes over at 1B and Arcia takes over in RF).

This is all about Aaron Hicks.

And Oswaldo Arcia?

johnnydakota
12-07-2012, 03:53 AM
yeah, we're talking a lot about CF with Benson/Hicks/Mastroianni... however, Arcia is probably the most big-league ready of the bunch, and if RF were to open up, I think they'd be pretty comfortable going to him.

Or maybe Ellsbury ends up our centerfielder....

FrodaddyG
12-07-2012, 03:58 AM
On the other hand, a contender at the trade deadline might be willing to give up a really good prospect for a former MVP if he is having a good season.
Is Vlad Guerrero available in this scenario? He's only two more years removed from his MVP award than Morneau!

diehardtwinsfan
12-07-2012, 06:56 AM
Gausman isn't available in a trade b/c PTBNLs have to be named in 6 months. They could pull this off in spring training or at the deadline in July, but not before then. I'd be quite happy getting Gausman for Morneau, but I have a tough time believing Baltimore would bite on that... not right now at least. If they are contending at the deadline, maybe...

That said, if I were Baltimore, I'd be looking forward to the days of having Bundy and Gausman fronting a rotation... That's 2 potential aces there. Given that much of this season was luck, I think they'd be foolish to trade either of those guys away.

wavedog
12-07-2012, 08:36 AM
Unless overwhelmed by a trade request, I would keep Morneau at least until the trade deadline. Shows a sign of stability and is someone the fans like to come out and see.

ericchri
12-07-2012, 09:21 AM
In a sense, I think the Revere trade makes trading Morneau now less likely. I'm still a little shocked we got both a Major League starter and a prospect for him. But we have one of our starting pitchers now, and money to get a couple more, meaning if everything (EVERYTHING) breaks right they can contend next year, and part of that is a quality season by Morneau.

My perspective here is that they still want to try and compete next year. If we trade Morneau, we now need to move Parmelee to first and then we probably need a FA OF or we're turning over RF to Arcia or Hicks (who may be great someday, but most reports say they're probably not ready yet). Who do you think is most likely to have an above average hitting season next year, Justin Morneau, a Rick Ankiel type, or Oswaldo Arcia? Cause we need one of those to happen to realistically be competitive next season.

beckmt
12-07-2012, 10:47 AM
Wait to trade Morneau until we see if Parmalee works out. That would be trading deadline next year.

WilliesWorld24
12-07-2012, 11:34 AM
To the question at hand, the trade market for Morneau (and Mauer) should be explored and exploited if possible. More high ceiling MiLB power arms, multiple-tool SS, and C in the mix. If the market is not ripe, see if #33 would sign a reasonable extension. He can always be traded in the future, but a reasonable extension improves his marketability. As an aside, the Twins conservative approach to extensions is a flaw that needs to be fixed. Don't extend young marginal talent (e.g. Blackburn) and do not wait on future stars - Mauer should have had the Longoria treatment right after call-up. Finally, do not understand the fascination with Parmalee. He is replacement value at best. Subpar fielder at any position. Unremarkable hitter. I am fine giving him a shot, but he is not a solution to any Twins problem. And move Willingham if Twins get quality in return. Best case scenario in 2013 is 75 wins, which is not going to move the fans to the stands. However, hope sells.

cmathewson
12-07-2012, 12:53 PM
I don't get the logic. Trading Revere actually makes trading Morneau less likely. One fewer outfielder means Parmelee will be needed in right field in 2013.

Not that a Morneau trade at this point is all that likely, anyway. Right now, his value is marginal, considering his contract. If he puts up great numbers in the first half of 2013 and we're out of it at the break, then, yeah. His value would be pretty huge at that point, because any team interested in him would recoup his salary in the playoffs. Teams don't like to spend that kind of money unless they know they have a good chance of winning it all.

I suppose you might say a pure salary dump makes some sense. But not if you listen to Ryan. He said he doesn't want to sign a big contract pitcher like Grienke, who's pretty much the only pitcher the Twins can't afford with their payroll. Ryan statement means he's not going to dump salary more salary. This post is a nonstarter.

jimbo92107
12-07-2012, 03:14 PM
You move Morneau now because you've got to get Mauer out from behind the plate. I'm thinking Parmalee at 1st and Mauer in RF, because Mauer has a bazooka arm and better foot speed.