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AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-04-2012, 11:47 PM
Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reports Revere's name has popped up as a possible trade candidate.


What could the Twins realistically get for Revere?

John Bonnes
12-05-2012, 12:45 AM
Here's he link:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonmorosi/statuses/276192321849151489

I don't think this is a terrible idea, if they think they can get some decent pitching back. Hicks could be ready sooner rather than later and thy can use a placeholder in he meantime - even Mastroianni.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-05-2012, 12:49 AM
Here's he link:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonmorosi/statuses/276192321849151489

I don't think this is a terrible idea, if they think they can get some decent pitching back. Hicks could be ready sooner rather than later and thy can use a placeholder in he meantime - even Mastroianni.

Im with you i dont think its a terrible idea, but I think we would need a better placeholder than Mastroianni. If he can get a decent PITCHING prospect back we should pull the trigger. Although i was getting excited to see Ben play CF this year.

Oxtung
12-05-2012, 02:28 AM
As always when it comes to trade rumors it depends on what the return is. If Revere can bring back a potential starter with #2 starter makeup you obviously pull that trigger (however unlikely that is) but if you're looking at a C prospect or 4 or 5 starter that sounds like a terrible deal. Trading Span's production was somewhat mitigated by Revere's presence. Revere could replace much of Span's production offensively and defensively and costs a 10th of Span's salary which could then, presumably, be used to improve the team elsewhere. He was a semi proven commodity.

Trying to replace Revere at this moment becomes more problematic. While we have a few potential candidates in the minors none of them are sure things. The list of great minor leaguers who failed to produce in the majors is long. What if you trade Revere and Hicks doesn't pan out? You might be able to replace their defensive value but who do the Twins have to bat leadoff? Dozier? Florimon? Short term Carroll might work but he certainly isn't ideal.

On the other hand we could hold onto Revere for the next 7-12 months and wait to see what we really have in Hicks. Then if Hicks looks at least serviceable we could pull the trigger. Holding Revere for another year should do little to diminish his value. Revere would still have 4 years of team control left.

I guess my point here is there is a big risk in trading Revere at this point because there isn't a player waiting to replace him. We have some prospects but they're just that, prospects. We have no idea how they will ultimately pan out. So the reward would have to be commensurate with the risk. If the return is not of high enough value there is no need to rush trading Revere as he will have value still in July, next December or anytime in the next few years.

Brock Beauchamp
12-05-2012, 07:04 AM
Even I'm not sold on trading Revere now that Span is gone but if the deal is right, you take the risk and deal him.

I always figured we'd be talking about dealing Revere a year from now

sorney
12-05-2012, 07:08 AM
If the Twins are punting on 2013 (and it *sounds* like they are...), might as well move him in a buyers market.
Better to move him a year early, than a year late where more of his warts are exposed and the return dwindles.

Brock Beauchamp
12-05-2012, 07:26 AM
If the Twins are punting on 2013 (and it *sounds* like they are...), might as well move him in a buyers market.
Better to move him a year early, than a year late where more of his warts are exposed and the return dwindles.

Absolutely. The only reason I'm hesitant is:

1. Hicks isn't quite ready yet

2. I didn't think we'd still be looking at a seller's market after Upton and Span moved to new teams.

But hey, if the market is there, go for it.

phalvorson
12-05-2012, 07:52 AM
My guess is that Revere would go in a package. As the sole piece in a trade, he wouldn't bring much value back. Revere & Morneau for a #1 or #2 starting pitcher? Revere & Gray for a back-end rotation guy or a high-upside prospect? I think that's the way we need to look at it.

mike wants wins
12-05-2012, 08:15 AM
Threads...................

Why not deal him for a pitcher? They have little pitching, all indications are they have decided legit FAs are too expensive. You have Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, maybe others up in a year or three.....why not trade him? How else do you get pitching?

Twins Twerp
12-05-2012, 08:27 AM
An outfield of Willingham, Mastrionni, and Parmalee may be the worst defensive unit in a long time. If Reverre doesn't get traded, I think we see Mastrioni out there a lot and would rarely see Willingham AND Parmalee playing together. If you trade Revere, we're looking at some serious holes in what was once a tea strength in the outfield.

ericchri
12-05-2012, 08:38 AM
If the return is good, do it. We can piece together a CF from Benson, Mastroianni, and Hicks. Trading Revere away would basically be admission that they're starting the transition to the young guys in the minors anyway, so at that point you want to find out what you have in Benson and Hicks, and we've seen Mastro do a decent job in part time duty already.

ThePuck
12-05-2012, 08:46 AM
We still don't quite know what we have with Revere yet...at least from an offensive side...like his OBP potential. He's still a kid himself, what, a year older than Hicks? Not even arbitration eligible yet?

I mean, I'm all for trading him, don't get me wrong...

but it's not like he's part of the old guard that we need to push aside for the new guard. That wouldn't be the reason. The reason would be a team wanting a young, inexpensive CF who covers a lot of ground who has potential...but also some major league experience already.

edavis0308
12-05-2012, 09:17 AM
My guess is that Revere would go in a package. As the sole piece in a trade, he wouldn't bring much value back. Revere & Morneau for a #1 or #2 starting pitcher? Revere & Gray for a back-end rotation guy or a high-upside prospect? I think that's the way we need to look at it.

Whaaa?

ericchri
12-05-2012, 09:18 AM
I kind of view it this way... If you're trying to compete this year you're not trading away both of your proven center fielders. The minute you trade away the second one, you're turning your eye to the future. If they trade Revere I assume other pieces are getting traded as well. That's what makes this interesting.

I think part of this story is perhaps which side caused Revere's name to come up as a trade candidate. Are the Twins shopping him actively, or are other teams inquiring if he's available? It's a subtle difference that doesn't ultimately matter much, but knowing that would give a clue towards their plans for next year.

Boom Boom
12-05-2012, 09:34 AM
I'm not a big believer in Revere as a long-term starter in this league. If the demand is there, trade him now.

peterb18
12-05-2012, 09:42 AM
1. Hicks isn't quite ready yet

You don't know that. Only those that work with him everyday do---like the minor league staff. Saw him play in Florida last winter--pretty impressive with his size and speed. Hit a long double off the center field wall the day I was there.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-05-2012, 09:47 AM
Hicks is certainly ready defensively, the question is, is his bat ready. He hit well in AA last year so it isn't crazy to think he could at least hold his own in the majors, my issue is starting his clock early, but at the end of the day if you can trade Revere for anything of value you do it.

Shane Wahl
12-05-2012, 09:56 AM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.

How is Justin Morneau not being talked about as a trade candidate? It is obvious that he needs to go.

Boom Boom
12-05-2012, 10:02 AM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.

How is Justin Morneau not being talked about as a trade candidate? It is obvious that he needs to go.

I disagree with you there. As Revere approaches arbitration he'll get somewhat more expensive, and unless you see him having a breakout offensive performance in the near future, his trade value will only decrease.

USAFChief
12-05-2012, 10:04 AM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.

How is Justin Morneau not being talked about as a trade candidate? It is obvious that he needs to go.

I find it preposterous to say "undoubtedly going to improve" about virtually any player.

In the specific case of Revere, any leg injury, or just a few points off the batting average, and what are you left with?

StormJH1
12-05-2012, 10:33 AM
I saw this and quickly ran to Twins Daily for some explanation. Haha.

Interestingly, I think Revere actually is at an intriguing "sell high" point in his career. If the perception of him is that he's a switch hitting basestealer, "elite" defender, and potential .290/.300 hitter...that's probably something we should be capitalizing on. Because I still feel like there's years he may run into some bad luck, and suddenly .265 or .270 with ZERO power feels more like a weak #9 hitter, not a top-of-the-order guy.

But it just would seem like a bizarre move if the return is anything other than pitching, and in light of the fact that we just traded Span too. Nothing in the Twins' September call-ups signaled anything close to the notion that the Twins were preparing for life without Span AND Revere. Hicks hasn't gotten a look yet, nor have guys like Arcia. They didn't even throw Joe Benson back into the fire.

Shane Wahl
12-05-2012, 10:38 AM
Morneau is also being floated. Thankfully.

I don't think Revere is a high point in his market value! I am not sure how to think otherwise. Teams aren't going to worry about one 500K season as a deal breaker.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-05-2012, 10:46 AM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.

How is Justin Morneau not being talked about as a trade candidate? It is obvious that he needs to go.

The Twins are reportedly throwing his name out their.

The Twins appear to be calling around to gauge trade interest in former MVP Justin Morneau, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com (via Twitter (https://twitter.com/masnRoch/status/276340665842032642)).

Brock Beauchamp
12-05-2012, 10:52 AM
Morneau is also being floated. Thankfully.

I don't think Revere is a high point in his market value! I am not sure how to think otherwise. Teams aren't going to worry about one 500K season as a deal breaker.

This could be Revere's high point. I don't think it is but it could be if he struggles in 2013. He put up some pretty miserable numbers in the last two months of 2012. If that continues next season, his value will be very low.

I think the Twins should be taking offers on Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Revere, and Perkins. If you get good offers for any of them, take it. The team shouldn't trade all of those players but trading one or two could help immensely.

Top Gun
12-05-2012, 11:29 AM
I thaught we where paying to watch mlb here, guess not.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-05-2012, 11:55 AM
I thaught we where paying to watch mlb here, guess not.


The only way this team has a future is to rebuild the farm system and get solid pitchers.

birdwatcher
12-05-2012, 01:26 PM
If another team believes Revere "will undoubtedly improve" and makes us a preposterously good offer, cool.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-05-2012, 01:43 PM
If another team believes Revere "will undoubtedly improve" and makes us a preposterously good offer, cool.

I like Revere but that is a big if.....

FrodaddyG
12-05-2012, 02:07 PM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.
265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it.

Oxtung
12-05-2012, 02:29 PM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.
265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it.

That guy did show up for a significant portion of 2011, 50% of his PA's in fact, and there apparently is still plenty of interest. So why exactly would next season be so different?

FrodaddyG
12-05-2012, 03:29 PM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.
265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it.

That guy did show up for a significant portion of 2011, 50% of his PA's in fact, and there apparently is still plenty of interest. So why exactly would next season be so different?
Because if his overall line keeps trending where it did the last two months, the not-really-as-good-as-it-looks 675 OPS turns into a 620 OPS and suddenly the "serviceable hitter who plays great defense" becomes a "defense-only guy" as a trade chip.

snepp
12-05-2012, 04:07 PM
265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs.

And those numbers are sickly similar to his 2011 numbers, .267/.310/.309.

FrodaddyG
12-05-2012, 04:09 PM
265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs.

And those numbers are sickly similar to his 2011 numbers, .267/.310/.309.
SSS. Only 481 PAs. He is OBVIOUSLY due to explode this year.

messed up
12-05-2012, 04:27 PM
Trading Span for a very good prospect I can live with but Revere too. I'd prefer to watch a major league team next year thank you!

Willihammer
12-05-2012, 04:29 PM
Guys with Revere's speed don't just go year after year with BABIPs in the low .300s. Its not a statistical certainty, but for my money I'll take the over on Revere popping out at least two years in the next 5 where his BABIP is north of .340.

And if your retort is based on his ground ball tendencies, my answer is that you have to weigh those against his IFFB tendencies, which is almost zero.

LaBombo
12-05-2012, 04:36 PM
I like Revere, but he didn't exactly have a prototypical breakout year. His line drive and walk rates both declined slightly from his rookie campaign. 41 combined infield and bunt hits in 2012 is impressive, but if he loses even a tick of speed, his offensive value will take a big hit. Plenty of players take a stride forward in their age 25 season, but he's not trending up at the moment.

Oxtung
12-05-2012, 04:52 PM
I find it preposterous. Trading Revere right now is selling pretty low. He is undoubtedly going to improve some this year, so that might as well be for the Twins and they can trade him after this year.
265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it.

That guy did show up for a significant portion of 2011, 50% of his PA's in fact, and there apparently is still plenty of interest. So why exactly would next season be so different?
Because if his overall line keeps trending where it did the last two months, the not-really-as-good-as-it-looks 675 OPS turns into a 620 OPS and suddenly the "serviceable hitter who plays great defense" becomes a "defense-only guy" as a trade chip.

Sure....of course if his May/June/July 2012 splits are what he puts up in 2013 then his numbers look like : .320/.350/.380 with an OPS in the mid .700's. You're picking one half of the season and claiming that is the mostly likely outcome without solid explanation of why that will be the case. You seem to be saying, "my gut says"....

The more likely outcome is that you see a player that is similar to his minor league and major league norms. IE what we saw this year. A ~.300/.330/.340 player with great speed and is dangerous on the base paths. If that is indeed the production in 2013 then his trade value next year will be roughly the same as it is this year.

joeboo_22
12-05-2012, 04:55 PM
If Morneau has a solid couple of months he could be a hot commodity come July, other then dumping salary I just don't really see the benefit of trading him now, as I'd be shocked if he brought anything in return in terms of prospects. He had a decent year, this year but remember he was dealing with wrist problems as well. If the wrist, neck and concussions are fine he could have a solid year.

At the same time if someone wants Revere or Willingham I think they need to think about it, if they can return something in terms of high ceiling pitchers I'd take a look. There is too much depth both close (Parmelee, Hicks, Arcia, Benson) and far (Kepler, Buxton, as well as others). That if an offer is on the table for Revere or Willingham you would have to really consider it.

mike wants wins
12-05-2012, 04:55 PM
But you will have delayed the rebuild, because you are getting a low A guy in 2013, instead of 2012....

adjacent
12-05-2012, 04:57 PM
It depends. If, let's say, Rangers are asking for Revere in addition to Morneau for Holland (or Holland and XX prospect) well, I would think seriously about it. If it is Revere for a not so good prospect(s), well, I keep Revere.

LaBombo
12-05-2012, 05:10 PM
Guys with Revere's speed don't just go year after year with BABIPs in the low .300s. Its not a statistical certainty, but for my money I'll take the over on Revere popping out at least two years in the next 5 where his BABIP is north of .340.

And if your retort is based on his ground ball tendencies, my answer is that you have to weigh those against his IFFB tendencies, which is almost zero.

Even if he converts ground balls into hits next year at the same rate as the 2012 league leader in infield hit rate, Norichika Aoki (13.5%), Revere will only pick up 8 extra hits, which would be an improvement of about 10 points of batting average. Meanwhile, his line drive rate fell to 18.6%, which puts him just outside the 20 lowest rates of the 142 qualifying hitters in 2012. His speed-related hitting is just about maxed out, so if he's going to see a sustainable improvement in obp, it will have to come mostly from more walks or more line drives.

Dilligaf69
12-05-2012, 05:14 PM
I don't se ANY way Revere fetches a potential #2 or 3 starter...NONE! so why not hang onto him for another yr. He hit .300 last yr and is a stud defensively, so give him a full season and see if he can continue to improve. You need coverage in that OF with Hammer and possibly Parm.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-05-2012, 05:31 PM
I don't se ANY way Revere fetches a potential #2 or 3 starter...NONE! so why not hang onto him for another yr. He hit .300 last yr and is a stud defensively, so give him a full season and see if he can continue to improve. You need coverage in that OF with Hammer and possibly Parm.

i dont think he will either. Maybe he can fetch a solid #4, but thats not what we need, But if we trade Morneau then we dont have to worry about Parmelee roaming RF. Who knows if the Twins are all that interested in trading Revere, especially with that team friendly contract of his.

FrodaddyG
12-05-2012, 05:43 PM
Sure....of course if his May/June/July 2012 splits are what he puts up in 2013 then his numbers look like : .320/.350/.380 with an OPS in the mid .700's. You're picking one half of the season and claiming that is the mostly likely outcome without solid explanation of why that will be the case. You seem to be saying, "my gut says"....

The more likely outcome is that you see a player that is similar to his minor league and major league norms. IE what we saw this year. A ~.300/.330/.340 player with great speed and is dangerous on the base paths. If that is indeed the production in 2013 then his trade value next year will be roughly the same as it is this year.
His three month sample you are citing as "good Revere" is bookended by 750 PAs of an OPS barely north of 600. And 250 of those were his most recent chunk of PAs. It's not just a "gut feeling", it's a trend he has exhibited over the past two seasons, where the "good Revere" sample seems to be the outlier.

And one thing that can translate into a low BABIP is a slight-framed guy who doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, i.e. a guy who weighs 170 lbs. If he isn't driving the ball (and I'd consider a low LD% a decent indicator of such) then all the speed in the world won't help if you're slapping around dribblers, because most of those won't make it through an infield.

mike wants wins
12-05-2012, 07:43 PM
I don't se ANY way Revere fetches a potential #2 or 3 starter...NONE! so why not hang onto him for another yr. He hit .300 last yr and is a stud defensively, so give him a full season and see if he can continue to improve. You need coverage in that OF with Hammer and possibly Parm.

Need coverage for what? It seems like they are not going to sign legit pitchers, why do they need coverage? They need prospects, because they appear to be not interested in signing free agents that are good players.....still hoping that isn't the case, and these rumors are wrong....still hoping.

joeboo_22
12-05-2012, 07:57 PM
With some of the contracts being handed out Willingham needs to be shopped around. Revere though I think can get a decent prospect in return. but will have to be lower in the system. He won't get anything close to what Span got, but at the same time its a numbers game, where you have depth at that position, sell what you have for what you can get and let them sink or swim out there.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-05-2012, 08:01 PM
With some of the contracts being handed out Willingham needs to be shopped around. Revere though I think can get a decent prospect in return. but will have to be lower in the system. He won't get anything close to what Span got, but at the same time its a numbers game, where you have depth at that position, sell what you have for what you can get and let them sink or swim out there.

I think your right, Willinghams contract is a fricken steal. Im sure the Twins are throwing his name out there and seeing what they can get in return for him.

Brandon
12-05-2012, 08:26 PM
or we could just buy the pitchers. but wait we can't pay market rate for employees. not even once in while.

Oxtung
12-05-2012, 08:29 PM
Sure....of course if his May/June/July 2012 splits are what he puts up in 2013 then his numbers look like : .320/.350/.380 with an OPS in the mid .700's. You're picking one half of the season and claiming that is the mostly likely outcome without solid explanation of why that will be the case. You seem to be saying, "my gut says"....

The more likely outcome is that you see a player that is similar to his minor league and major league norms. IE what we saw this year. A ~.300/.330/.340 player with great speed and is dangerous on the base paths. If that is indeed the production in 2013 then his trade value next year will be roughly the same as it is this year.
His three month sample you are citing as "good Revere" is bookended by 750 PAs of an OPS barely north of 600. And 250 of those were his most recent chunk of PAs. It's not just a "gut feeling", it's a trend he has exhibited over the past two seasons, where the "good Revere" sample seems to be the outlier.

You're ignoring the fact that he had 1700+ plate appearances in the minors where he hit for a high average with little power. So when you look at his whole professional career the real outlier is his rookie season in 2011. Many prospects struggle their rookie year. Nothing unusual there.


And one thing that can translate into a low BABIP is a slight-framed guy who doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, i.e. a guy who weighs 170 lbs. If he isn't driving the ball (and I'd consider a low LD% a decent indicator of such) then all the speed in the world won't help if you're slapping around dribblers, because most of those won't make it through an infield.

His LD% in 2012 allowed him to hit ~.300/.330/.340. He weighed 170 lbs. Unless you're predicting he is going to play 2013 at <170 lbs. or you think he lost considerable muscle his weight shouldn't affect his LD%.

Look it's possible he'll tank in 2013. It's also possible he'll OPS .750. The more likely outcome is that he puts up numbers similar to 2012. That's what he did for 4 years in the minors and that's what he did last year. The only outlier here is his rookie season.

So again, if you think he's going to slump in 2013, why? What is going to change this offseason?

Willihammer
12-05-2012, 08:48 PM
Even if he converts ground balls into hits next year at the same rate as the 2012 league leader in infield hit rate, Norichika Aoki (13.5%), Revere will only pick up 8 extra hits, which would be an improvement of about 10 points of batting average. Meanwhile, his line drive rate fell to 18.6%, which puts him just outside the 20 lowest rates of the 142 qualifying hitters in 2012. His speed-related hitting is just about maxed out, so if he's going to see a sustainable improvement in obp, it will have to come mostly from more walks or more line drives.

Those are infield hit percentages, meaning balls fielded without error and no out recorded. BABIP on ground balls will be higher. Heck, Mauer's was .285 last year, although I don't know what Revere's was. But, that reminds me of another peanut stat - reaching base on error, where Revere had 8, Aoki had 13. Mauer had 4, Willingham had 5, by comparison. Just another marginal benefit of speed that doesn't even get factored into BAv or OBP, although they are obviously recorded as at-bats.

FrodaddyG
12-06-2012, 01:08 AM
His LD% in 2012 allowed him to hit ~.300/.330/.340. He weighed 170 lbs. Unless you're predicting he is going to play 2013 at <170 lbs. or you think he lost considerable muscle his weight shouldn't affect his LD%.

Look it's possible he'll tank in 2013. It's also possible he'll OPS .750. The more likely outcome is that he puts up numbers similar to 2012. That's what he did for 4 years in the minors and that's what he did last year. The only outlier here is his rookie season.

So again, if you think he's going to slump in 2013, why? What is going to change this offseason?
Revere has, in essence, 2 MLB seasons of PAs. In one and a half of them, he put up an OPS barely clearing 600. In the other half a season, he managed to hit at a 725 OPS clip. Which of these samples seems more indicative of the real player? Call me nuts, but I'm going to lean towards the 750 PAs instead of the other 300.

I'm not going to bother with the specifics of his downward trend in his minors career, given that he hasn't OPSed over 750 since low A ball in 2008. That is with him scraping out an average just above .300 on a yearly basis, so what exactly is going to send his production suddenly shooting upward now that he's at the highest level of competition? Is he suddenly going to hit .350? Grow some man muscles on his 170 lb frame that will make a defense play deeper than a typical softball team on a field with 300 foot fences? Suddenly learn to take a walk? Something has to happen if he's going to make a legit improvement other than crossing your fingers and hoping some more dribblers find their way through a gap.

Oxtung
12-06-2012, 02:09 AM
Your argument has gone from:

265/310/300

That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet.

To:


[...]what exactly is going to send his production suddenly shooting upward now that he's at the highest level of competition? Something has to happen if he's going to make a legit improvement other than crossing your fingers and hoping some more dribblers find their way through a gap.

Since my point this whole time has been it is likely he will put up offensive numbers similar to his 2012 season, not that he would be much improved, I think we're seeing eye to eye. If his numbers remain relatively consistent then his trade value going into 2014 should be similar to what it is going into 2013.

FrodaddyG
12-06-2012, 02:47 AM
Since my point this whole time has been it is likely he will put up offensive numbers similar to his 2012 season, not that he would be much improved, I think we're seeing eye to eye. If his numbers remain relatively consistent then his trade value going into 2014 should be similar to what it is going into 2013.
That initial point was in reference to the "obviously due to improve" argument someone made earlier in this discussion. He may end up putting up similar numbers, but there's a pretty good chance (75% of his MLB PAs to this point) that he ends up quite a bit closer to that 610 OPS line, and then we're hoping he brings a turd sandwich in return. In reality, his past season was about as good a season statistically as you can realistically expect from a no-power, no-plate-discipline speedster, and selling now would be maximizing his trade value.

Again, unless there's a sudden, inexplicable increase in his ability to walk or a 50 point jump in his BA, there's little reason to believe that his 2012 results can be improved upon, and plenty of reason (again, 75% of his MLB PAs) that argue he could do markedly worse.

Riverbrian
12-06-2012, 07:23 AM
We gotta trade Revere now... I've been convinced... I've been reading the posts and the consensus has convinced me.

Revere is obviously at a sell high point and should be moved because his OPS isn't high enough to be more than a 4th outfielder

And... because last year was a fluke he really can't sustain that low OPS...

if he can't sustain that low OPS his value is gonna turn to **** so we should move him now...

And fast guys are the only ones who get hurt.

Ok... Diving back into the pool I'm more comfortable with...

It is preposterous to say he will obviously improve... It is also preposterous to say he obviously won't. It is also preposterous to say he will obviously stay the same.

I won't make a definitive projection because its baseball but I have a pretty strong guess that his production will fluctuate. Like everybody else!!!

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 07:30 AM
I won't make a definitive projection because its baseball but I have a pretty strong guess that his production will fluctuate. Like everybody else!!!

Absolutely. But the problem with Revere is that he'll probably fluctuate between a .650 and a .750 OPS. His absolute ceiling (unless he starts putting the ball in the air with more authority as he ages) isn't very high to begin with and his floor makes him a platoon or fourth outfielder.

I'm not against holding on to him for one more season (because Hicks isn't ready yet and Arcia could regress) but there's a significant risk in doing so. If there's a solid offer on the table now, the Twins should take it and patch together an OF for half a season while Hicks gets some AAA experience under his belt.

Top Gun
12-06-2012, 07:38 AM
You can't teach speed.

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 07:46 AM
You can't teach speed.

It's also the most fickle trait in baseball. Rickey Henderson was one of the greatest players of all time because on top of his speed and baserunning acumen, he had amazing plate discipline and quite a bit of power. Tim Raines made it into the HoF with a similar skillset.

On its own, speed is a marginal skill. You can't use it if you don't get on base and it's the first skill to degrade.

Riverbrian
12-06-2012, 07:56 AM
I won't make a definitive projection because its baseball but I have a pretty strong guess that his production will fluctuate. Like everybody else!!!

Absolutely. But the problem with Revere is that he'll probably fluctuate between a .650 and a .750 OPS. His absolute ceiling (unless he starts putting the ball in the air with more authority as he ages) isn't very high to begin with and his floor makes him a platoon or fourth outfielder.

I'm not against holding on to him for one more season (because Hicks isn't ready yet and Arcia could regress) but there's a significant risk in doing so. If there's a solid offer on the table now, the Twins should take it and patch together an OF for half a season while Hicks gets some AAA experience under his belt.

Brock you have been one of the more reasonable anti(for lack of a better word) guys. I wont argue that fluctuation range of yours. Looks reasonable to me. I get what you are saying.

100 OPS points is nothing statistically is what I'm saying(and yes i know the formula) and it isn't just the fast guys. Try to project what you should sign Napoli for?

I'm not slamming Denard Span... I will miss Span terribly... but he ain't a power hitter either and his arm is also sub par. The differences are shades. Yet one is approved and the other is not. I refuse to let a couple of doubles and a couple of walks get in the way of a developing 24 year old who has not failed yet.

Metrics are a major part of my job and I have seen too many people chase their tails while thinking they had the tail the whole time.

Lots of that going on.

Top Gun
12-06-2012, 08:03 AM
Twins gave away there #1 hitter, if they give away the #2 there won't be many runs to drive in. The defense is hurt already and the future is no where in site just as well donate the money to the fiscal cliff.

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 08:10 AM
Brock you have been one of the more reasonable anti(for lack of a better word) guys. I wont argue that fluctuation range of yours. Looks reasonable to me. I get what you are saying.

100 OPS points is nothing statistically is what I'm saying(and yes i know the formula) and it isn't just the fast guys. Try to project what you should sign Napoli for?

I'm not slamming Denard Span... I will miss Span terribly... but he ain't a power hitter either and his arm is also sub par. The differences are shades. Yet one is approved and the other is not. I refuse to let a couple of doubles and a couple of walks get in the way of a developing 24 year old who has not failed yet.

Metrics are a major part of my job and I have seen too many people chase their tails while thinking they had the tail the whole time.

Lots of that going on.

But remember when Span was signed. He was coming off two years of .800 OPS and nearly a .400 OBP. He regressed, just as speed guys often do in time as the league adjusts. But even after Span regressed, he was still a valuable player. Can you really say that for Revere? That's the difference between the two players. Span regressed from a .320/.390/.410 guy into a .280/.350/.370 guy. That still has a lot of value in an up-the-middle position. Even as Span's BABIP normalized, his walk rate and power remained (mostly) steady and after a few years, was still considered an above average centerfielder.

If Revere's BABIP drops, he's screwed. He's instantly a fourth outfielder. Outside of mentioning that they play the same position, we should stop comparing the two players. Span is the superior player in almost every way.

As for Revere's future, there isn't a lot to project there. He's never taken a walk in his career. Learning to do so now is pretty far-fetched. He puts the ball on the ground far too often to be a power threat. He's still young and could develop a little more strength but it won't be significant and given his ground ball rate, could just mean that he starts hitting groundball outs to fielders a little faster than he did before (at the same time his speed is declining). There's just nothing in his skill set that projects to being a quality player over the longterm.

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 08:13 AM
Twins gave away there #1 hitter, if they give away the #2 there won't be many runs to drive in. The defense is hurt already and the future is no where in site just as well donate the money to the fiscal cliff.
2817

Jim Crikket
12-06-2012, 08:21 AM
Twins gave away there #1 hitter, if they give away the #2 there won't be many runs to drive in. The defense is hurt already and the future is no where in site just as well donate the money to the fiscal cliff.
2817

You obviously have company, Brock. If you haven't already, check out LaVelle's early morning Insider post. Sounds like the Twins were up late working on a possible Revere deal. Serious enough that they called their PR guy back from the airport where he was set to fly home to Minnesota. And Hicks' representatves were pumped about speculation that the Twins would be willing to give their client a shot at the CF job.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/Twins_Insider.html

Riverbrian
12-06-2012, 08:28 AM
Interesting indeed?

I'm serious... I would buy any book that published every conversation.

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 08:32 AM
You obviously have company, Brock. If you haven't already, check out LaVelle's early morning Insider post. Sounds like the Twins were up late working on a possible Revere deal. Serious enough that they called their PR guy back from the airport where he was set to fly home to Minnesota. And Hicks' representatves were pumped about speculation that the Twins would be willing to give their client a shot at the CF job.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/Twins_Insider.html

I would be so excited if they dealt Revere. Right now, we're seeing the difference between Ryan and Smith at the helm. Ryan traded his centerfielder and it looks as if he has realized that there's still a market for centerfielders. Well, damn, the Twins just happen to have another centerfielder on the roster and a second one hammering away in New Britain.

Revere may or may not be dealt. I can see upside and downside to each. But just the fact that Ryan is playing supply and demand to his advantage is reassuring. We finally have a GM that understands how to run a baseball team again.

ericchri
12-06-2012, 08:43 AM
Tim Raines made it into the HoF with a similar skillset.

Care to reevaluate that statement? :(

He should be in the Hall of Fame with that skillset, but as of right now...

Jim Crikket
12-06-2012, 08:44 AM
Revere may or may not be dealt. I can see upside and downside to each. But just the fact that Ryan is playing supply and demand to his advantage is reassuring. We finally have a GM that understands how to run a baseball team again.

I tend to agree. That said, "trying" only gets a guy so far with me. If they come through all of this without significantly improving this team, Ryan will open himself up to justifiable criticism for only being willing to do just below whatever it would have taken to get the job done. This team needs help and it's not enough to try, he has to do it. I'm really not interested in reading a bunch of post-mortem columns by the beat reporters about how hard Ryan and his group worked, even though they didn't get anything done but pick someone in the Rule 5.

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 08:50 AM
Revere may or may not be dealt. I can see upside and downside to each. But just the fact that Ryan is playing supply and demand to his advantage is reassuring. We finally have a GM that understands how to run a baseball team again.

I tend to agree. That said, "trying" only gets a guy so far with me. If they come through all of this without significantly improving this team, Ryan will open himself up to justifiable criticism for only being willing to do just below whatever it would have taken to get the job done. This team needs help and it's not enough to try, he has to do it. I'm really not interested in reading a bunch of post-mortem columns by the beat reporters about how hard Ryan and his group worked, even though they didn't get anything done but pick someone in the Rule 5.

Absolutely. Results matter. But at least Ryan isn't stuck in a rut and he's thinking outside the box a bit. Even considering moving Revere is a pretty big step, IMO.

Brock Beauchamp
12-06-2012, 08:51 AM
Tim Raines made it into the HoF with a similar skillset.

Care to reevaluate that statement? :(

He should be in the Hall of Fame with that skillset, but as of right now...

Hah, right. That should read "Tim Raines should make it into..."

I think he'll make it in time.

LaBombo
12-06-2012, 01:45 PM
Even if he converts ground balls into hits next year at the same rate as the 2012 league leader in infield hit rate, Norichika Aoki (13.5%), Revere will only pick up 8 extra hits, which would be an improvement of about 10 points of batting average. Meanwhile, his line drive rate fell to 18.6%, which puts him just outside the 20 lowest rates of the 142 qualifying hitters in 2012. His speed-related hitting is just about maxed out, so if he's going to see a sustainable improvement in obp, it will have to come mostly from more walks or more line drives.

Those are infield hit percentages, meaning balls fielded without error and no out recorded. BABIP on ground balls will be higher. Heck, Mauer's was .285 last year, although I don't know what Revere's was. But, that reminds me of another peanut stat - reaching base on error, where Revere had 8, Aoki had 13. Mauer had 4, Willingham had 5, by comparison. Just another marginal benefit of speed that doesn't even get factored into BAv or OBP, although they are obviously recorded as at-bats.

Water over the dam at this point, I guess, but what you said doesn't make sense. 10.8% IS Revere's batting average on ground balls in play. Honest. 295 ground balls(!) times 10.8% equals Ben Revere's infield hit total of 32, not including bunt hits. And I'd wager that nobody in the history of the league has converted ground balls into hits at a .285 clip. Mauer only managed to beat out about 3% of his grounders for infield hits.

So again, Revere isn't due for a breakout solely on the basis of a disparity between his speed and his BABIP. He is, however, going to lose a big chunk of his value the very minute that he loses just one ounce of speed, since he's already close to maxing out his potential for getting on base when he hits the ball on the ground. That said, he's a good player, and I wish him well in Philly.