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View Full Version : How high would you go for Brandon McCarthy?



John Bonnes
12-04-2012, 10:53 AM
Given the escalated salaries for starting pitchers, how high would you be willing to go for Brandon McCarthy? He's been very good when healthy, but also has only thrown 111 and 170 innings the last two years. He was out all of 2010. So there is plenty of gamble there.

Would you be willing to go three years?
Would you be willing to go up to $10M/year? $11M?

Think of this as a blind bid situation. If you get the biggest total number, you get him. What would you be willing to do?

(I think I top out at 2/22 or 3/30.)

raindog
12-04-2012, 11:05 AM
(I think I top out at 2/22 or 3/30.)

This. No higher.

Twins Twerp
12-04-2012, 11:13 AM
2 for 20 with a team option of 11 mil for a third year. A guy who got his head almost knocked off for 10mil scares me.

mike wants wins
12-04-2012, 11:13 AM
Well, Haren just went 13 million for 1 year.

gunnarthor
12-04-2012, 11:29 AM
I'd probably leave him alone but 3/24 would be my limit. Pitching in Oakland, I think, helps him a great deal.

He does have a stunning wife though.

powrwrap
12-04-2012, 11:45 AM
Assuming he's healthy (good point Twerp) I'd go 2/24 or 3/33. If you want starting pitching, and you are in a secondary market, better pay. Look at Carlos Silva in Seattle and Gil Meche in KC. McCarthy's 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the past 4 years is solid and easily better than any 4 year stretch by Meche or Silva.

Seth Stohs
12-04-2012, 11:49 AM
I'd go 2 years, $18 million, with a $10 million option for 2015... with a $1 million buyout.

So, that'd be a 2 year, $19 million deal with option.

drivlikejehu
12-04-2012, 11:51 AM
Pitching has always been expensive. Revenues have risen, and payrolls along with it, but even back in the day there was Mike Hampton and so forth.

McCarthy doesn't have a great track record for his career like Haren. I just don't think teams will go totally crazy over a limited-upside question mark, even in this market. I wouldn't offer more than 2/16.

fittdogg
12-04-2012, 12:08 PM
3 years $36 million or even 4 years $48 million. When you put up ERA numbers like that in the American League, he's worth it.

Shane Wahl
12-04-2012, 12:12 PM
I wouldn't push it at all. I guess two years guaranteed for a walking injury concern is not terrible. A Pavano-esque deal then. I would prefer a 1/10 with a 12 million option and 1 million buyout the best though. Or let the White Sox throw 4 years at him and watch that fail miserably.

syves
12-04-2012, 12:21 PM
With his history, as high as that referendum is gonna make Colorado.

I'm not gonna pay someone $10 million who has pitched over 150 innings one time since 2006.

Shane Wahl
12-04-2012, 12:30 PM
With his history, as high as that referendum is gonna make Colorado.

I'm not gonna pay someone $10 million who has pitched over 150 innings one time since 2006.

Yeah, I really find the love for him around here bizarre. 3 or 4 years!!!???

Jim H
12-04-2012, 12:41 PM
The problem with this question for me is what are other options and what really is the budget? It is hard to say what amount of money should be committed to a pretty risky guy like McCarthy when you really don't know how much the Twins are willing to spend for 2013 and for future years. I would likely rather have McCarthy then Edwin Jackson but that depends on money and years. Maybe the best stragedy here, is find 4 reasonable risk starters for 1 year each for $20-25 mil. It gives you some depth, it would allow to address other areas and may save some be spent during the season if the Twins happened to be better than expected.

Investing money in a McCarthy is a large gamble if you have to go multiple years. A guy like Jackson might have ace stuff, but generally pitches like a back of rotation guy, plus no team seems to want him after watching pitch for a year. So maybe you sign 4 moderate risk, moderate reward guys to 1 year deals and see what your team looks like in July.

whydidnt
12-04-2012, 12:43 PM
I guess I'd be surprised if he got the kind of money most are floating around here. His track record of injuries is going to cause teams to pause on anything more than a year. 1 Year 8.5 or 2 yrs 16 should be pretty competitive. Haren has a much longer track record of success and fewer injuries and just got 1 -13 from the Nationals, I really can't see McCarthy approaching those numbers.

Twins Twerp
12-04-2012, 12:50 PM
I guess I'd be surprised if he got the kind of money most are floating around here. His track record of injuries is going to cause teams to pause on anything more than a year. 1 Year 8.5 or 2 yrs 16 should be pretty competitive. Haren has a much longer track record of success and fewer injuries and just got 1 -13 from the Nationals, I really can't see McCarthy approaching those numbers.

Because he is only 29, still has potential as a mid-rotation guy, and multiple team are bidding on him. The guy is going to take the best deal with the most money or multiple years. My guess is someone will be willing to put in a second year. He will take the second year and run to the bank with it.

old nurse
12-04-2012, 01:03 PM
You could be creative and go a little lower around 16 for 2 with a generous bonus for IP. Make it a win/win.

Kwak
12-04-2012, 01:26 PM
1st year 6MM with incentives that go as high as 10MM, 2nd year opion 12MM with a 1.5MM buyout.

whydidnt
12-04-2012, 01:42 PM
Because he is only 29, still has potential as a mid-rotation guy, and multiple team are bidding on him. The guy is going to take the best deal with the most money or multiple years. My guess is someone will be willing to put in a second year. He will take the second year and run to the bank with it.
I agree that he'll probably get 2 years, but I still think teams are going to be shy because of the injury track record. He's had serious shoulder injuries throughout his career and those are the one's that are the most difficult to overcome. I'm not saying a don't like the guy or that he wouldn't be an upgrade here, but I also think if you're going to invest 10+ million a year you want someone that you think has a good chance of making it through the season.

JP3700
12-04-2012, 01:45 PM
You could be creative and go a little lower around 16 for 2 with a generous bonus for IP. Make it a win/win.

I agree. 2 years, $16 million with up to $3 million in incentives each year based on IP. I'd also add a third year vesting option.

johnnydakota
12-04-2012, 01:48 PM
Off subject , but can anyone tell me why Salcedo is rated higher as a prospect then Berrois is?

old nurse
12-04-2012, 01:53 PM
Off subject , but can anyone tell me why Salcedo is rated higher as a prospect then Berrois is?

Way off subject. Look at who did the rankings. After you say "who?" you will have your answer. Or Thyrloss is messing with people again.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-04-2012, 01:56 PM
Giving McCarthy anything more then 1 year is a recipe for disaster, the guy can't be counted on to stay healthy.

With that said, I would give him a 1 year 6-7 mil deal and a team option if he would take it.

Rosterman
12-04-2012, 01:57 PM
I would go 2-year $22 million...$10, $12 with a third year option of $14-15 million with a $2 million buyout to sign him. But not sure if I would make a similar offer to, say, Dempster, or someone else first.

LaBombo
12-04-2012, 02:58 PM
Hard to consider any signing in a vacuum while ignoring the team's goal for 2013. If it's just to inch back to respectability while building for 2014 and beyond by adding cheap 1-year FA's, then McCarthy isn't a good fit. He's too expensive and risky for that.

But if the goal is to gamble on a guy who could be a very good 3rd starter in '14 and '15, then he may be the kind of guy the Twins have to roll the dice on. McCarthy has been less durable than Scott Baker and is coming off a potentially life-threatening head injury. It seems plausible to expect that McCarthy could sign a three year deal worth around 25-30 million, but back-loaded with incentives and buyouts. The Twins should have at least some interest.

It may depend as much (or more) on McCarthy's career and financial goals than it does how much the Twins will pony up. He may be determined to gamble on himself with a one year deal that frees him to follow the big money after a strong 2013. Or he may be determined to play for a contender (like Marcum) and not even consider the Twins.

nicksaviking
12-04-2012, 03:18 PM
I would ask McCarthy to pay the Twins $5 million for the right to pitch in Minnesota. I have zero interest in pitchers who suddenly become useful in Oakland, 90% of the time it's a mirage. Besides, are we really looking to keep the status quo on the Twins already league worst K/9? If this team is going to gamble on an injury prone pitcher, they should have gone after Dan Haren who actually isn't injury prone, but just has bad PR guys at his agents firm.

70charger
12-04-2012, 03:28 PM
Hard to consider any signing in a vacuum while ignoring the team's goal for 2013. If it's just to inch back to respectability while building for 2014 and beyond by adding cheap 1-year FA's, then McCarthy isn't a good fit. He's too expensive and risky for that.

But if the goal is to gamble on a guy who could be a very good 3rd starter in '14 and '15, then he may be the kind of guy the Twins have to roll the dice on. McCarthy has been less durable than Scott Baker and is coming off a potentially life-threatening head injury. It seems plausible to expect that McCarthy could sign a three year deal worth around 25-30 million, but back-loaded with incentives and buyouts. The Twins should have at least some interest.

It depends more on McCarthy's career and financial goals than it does how much the Twins will pony up. He may be determined to gamble on himself with a one year deal that frees him to follow the big money after a strong 2013. Or he may be determined to play for a contender (like Marcum) and not even consider the Twins.

I absolutely agree with this. I don't think signing him to multiple years is a recipe for disaster unless you know for a fact that he'll get injured. It's absolutely a gamble with his health history, and it may very well not pan out, but the Twins are a position right now that they have to roll the dice. They have no real choice in the matter.

I would guess that something like 2 years at $8m and $10m with a (vesting?) option for a 3rd at $12 would get him. It's on the high side, but in this free agent market, what isn't?

twinsfaninsaudi
12-04-2012, 05:53 PM
In the Twins situation of currently not being a contender and therefore not being an attractive landing spot, I would go as high as the deal Haren just got from the Nats - 1 year $13 million. However, I would NOT go over one year.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
12-04-2012, 06:01 PM
In the Twins situation of currently not being a contender and therefore not being an attractive landing spot, I would go as high as the deal Haren just got from the Nats - 1 year $13 million. However, I would NOT go over one year.

I would say give him a 1 year deal worth close to Harens just like you said. But I would also have a team option for a 2nd year, but im sure some team out there will be desperate enough to give him a 3 year deal.

diehardtwinsfan
12-04-2012, 08:52 PM
Given the need for pitching long term, I'd think that going after a guy like Sanchez for a 6 year deal to anchor the rotation would be the smart move. He's 28, so we would be paying him through age 34. To me that's the safest pick. McCarthy isn't necessarily a bad option, but 3 years from now, we will still need pitching...

powrwrap
12-04-2012, 09:06 PM
I find it hilarious that those people that criticize the Pohlads for not spending money are (sometimes) the same ones that are willing to spend all of $8M on McCarthy, BUT NO MORE!!!

kab21
12-04-2012, 09:10 PM
McCarthy should get a 1 yr contract for significantly less than haren. That head injury was awful I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers from it long term. I'm surprised that so many are willing to dismiss that after the issues that Span and Morneau have had.

Imo he looked like the kind of guy that was going sign a reasonable 3/30 contract before that injury. He might be young but I really question if he was that good before the injury. Mediocre K rate and the Oakland effect.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
12-04-2012, 09:25 PM
2/17 with a 10 million option

rogrulz30
12-04-2012, 10:07 PM
This is the 1 guy I would over pay in the market, I understand the injury issues, he is young and has a great upside if he can stay healthy. Biggest chance I take overall and would offer a 3 year deal. I am in the 3/30 options, I don't know if I would want to go that far above market value on some of the other options. Like Terry Ryan said though if you want a free agent you take market value and you give it the little extra, I like 3 guys a lot Villanueva, McCarthy, and obviously Sanchez, I don't go after Sanchez unless we can have some higher expectations making playoff runs.

Top Gun
12-04-2012, 10:16 PM
I won't touch him with a 10 foot pole!

RodneyKline
12-04-2012, 10:50 PM
All these pitchers are going to get $10 million plus and they are not great pitchers. Sign Grienke! Would you rather have Grienke at $20m or two of these average at best pitchers at $10 million. TR is going to give us another five #3-#5 starters and we won't gey above .500. We need an ace and that is Grienke. It would be a smart business move by Jim Pohlad. Spending $100 million for a team under .500 next year will get attendance to keep dropping every year. Spend an extra #20 million and get Grienke and Twins Nation jumps back on the bandwaggin to stay for the rest of the decade. Jim Pohlad will not say no to a smart business investment. The $120m payroll option is a much higher return gamble in my opinion. Grienke is considering KC according to rumors. He will definitely consider MN. He seems like the type that would not like the NY, Boston or LA lifestyle. Get aggressive TR! We told you that we needed an ace in 2011 and 2012 and you ignored us and signed a bunch of projects. That didn't work. What to do in 2013? Ignore the need for an ace to anchor the rotation or ??? The definition of insanity is...

whydidnt
12-07-2012, 05:02 PM
Can I pat myself on the back for being closest?;) He just signed with Arizona for 2 years 15.5 million. Heck if the Twins had listened to me, maybe they could have had him for the 2/16 I proposed. I think he would have been a nice addition at 8/year, when you consider we had no problem giving that, or close to it to Pavano last year.

Rosterman
12-07-2012, 05:06 PM
I would give him $15.5 over two years.

diehardtwinsfan
12-07-2012, 06:21 PM
I'm not sure what the point of going after 2 year guys is... I'd go after 1 year upside guys and go after guys who will be in the rotation for 4 or 5...

John Bonnes
12-07-2012, 07:36 PM
I'd have snapped him up for that 15.5/2-year deal in a second. I'd love to know what the Twins offered. Were they close, and the DBacks were just a better fit for him, or did they bid quite a bit less? (And frankly, I'd have loved to see them get him for 2/17 if that's what it took.)

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 09:09 PM
I would give him $15.5 over two years.

Well done... Right on the nose... I use the same method for my March Madness brackets.. I used to watch my final four teams drop out early. Then I came up with a better method... I now pick them after the game... I've only missed two total in the past 3 years using this method.

Rosterman
12-07-2012, 10:18 PM
The Twins need to show some semblance of competitiveness, really, in 2013 and 2014, otherwise, they won't attract free agents. Until the young turks are EASED into the system, free agents will give second thoughts to the team, unless they are overpayed or as a last resort. Does Arizona look better than Minnesota? Is he a NL or AL pitcher. Was it a difference of half-a-million or considerably more? We will never know.

greengoblinrulz
12-07-2012, 10:54 PM
As the Twins/Terry Ryan do......they offerred a one year contract & are just waiting for someone to say OK......wasnt gonna be Brandon as that was a very decent contract.

Einstein
12-08-2012, 08:27 AM
2 years for $15.5? And that's out of the Twins price range? That says a lot about the Twins. Bargain basement here we come!