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Riverbrian
12-03-2012, 12:42 PM
Rumors are just rumors but there are a few teams being reported as John Lannan Suitors.

Since Washington just let him go. Can anyone think of a reason that Lannan wasn't someone that could have been included in the deal.

I think it's quite possible that a throw in in the Span/Meyer trade wasn't a consideration because I assume that Washington came up to Terry Ryan's price with Meyer. So someone like Lombardozzi was an impossible consideration.

But... Since Washington was just letting Lannan go. I fail to see a reason why Lannan couldn't have been thrown in. That way the Twins could have grabbed him and not had to go thru the FA process.

It was an Arb year correct? Did Terry Ryan not like Lannan or the assumed arbitration price? Any Guesses?

Nick Nelson
12-03-2012, 01:10 PM
Probably didn't want to pay his arb price since he was going to get non-tendered. I'd stay away from Lannan anyway.

Riverbrian
12-03-2012, 01:15 PM
I'm not sure if I want him either but we do need arms and if other teams are going after him. I was just kinda thinking... This must mean that Terry has no interest or thought he could be signed cheaper through FA.

Craig in MN
12-03-2012, 01:31 PM
Yes, but it could also mean TR might want to sign better starters first and see what money he has left before filling out the bottom of the rotation. It would limit his options.

Tecmo
12-03-2012, 01:37 PM
Lannon made 5 million in arbitration last year so his salary would have likely been close to the same this season. Way more than he is worth on the open market.

Riverbrian
12-03-2012, 01:47 PM
Yes, but it could also mean TR might want to sign better starters first and see what money he has left before filling out the bottom of the rotation. It would limit his options.

I didn't think of that.

nicksaviking
12-03-2012, 02:05 PM
Maybe Ryan isn't looking to decrease the already league worst K/9 rate.

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 09:17 PM
I gotta bring this thread back to the top for a revisit. I've been reading more and more from different sources that the Twins are talking with Lannan... Levelle wrote about it... I believe I saw it on MLB trade rumors. Yes just rumors so it doesn't mean it's true... But if its true...

Why is this necessary... If they are interested in Lannan... Washington could have just included him in the Span trade since they released him anyway.

I don't know for sure but I think they are talking with Lannan. It alludes me.

jokin
12-07-2012, 09:30 PM
I gotta bring this thread back to the top for a revisit. I've been reading more and more from different sources that the Twins are talking with Lannan... Levelle wrote about it... I believe I saw it on MLB trade rumors. Yes just rumors so it doesn't mean it's true... But if its true...

Why is this necessary... If they are interested in Lannan... Washington could have just included him in the Span trade since they released him anyway.

I don't know for sure but I think they are talking with Lannan. It alludes me.

Knowing you as the wordsmith that you are, I know you meant that it "eludes" you, (unless you meant somehow, the deal was in some reference to you;)).
When in doubt, I always follow Jerry Maguire's lead and follow the money, I'm sure the answer to Ryan's thinking lies somewhere in that equation (right or wrong? IDK, it is a headscratcher, for sure).

YourHouseIsMyHouse
12-07-2012, 09:39 PM
Like Techmo said, the only way Washington would have owned his rights is if they offered arbitration. Otherwise he is a free agent and you obviously can't trade free agents. Arb would have been around 5.5 million and no one thinks he's worth that much. Best to re-negotiate with him for a more appropriate price. His ERAs are good, but he doesn't strike anyone out and walks a lot of batters. His WHIP is also terrible. I could really see him getting thrown around in the AL. I think he has Jason Marquis written all over him.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 09:39 PM
First off he was non tendered at least a week before the span trade happened.

Second off, as many people have stated they can get him quite a bit cheaper now then if they traded for him and gave him arb.

Who care if it would have been an "extra piece" back in the span trade, it wouldn't have made the trade better, and possibly even worse if the twins wouldn't have gone ahead and non tendered him.

Give me pelfrey as a potential #5 over him anyways

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 09:51 PM
Seriously... That's how you spell Elude? lol... I've been spelling it allude my whole life and I love that word... I use it all the time and no one has ever corrected me... I spit my beer out of my nose laughing. So it seems that the spelling of Allude... ELUDES me... Too funny.

Lannan was non tendered a day after the Span trade I believe... I guess we will have to see if he goes cheaper. He might and I assume that was TRs thought... He might lose this dice roll tho.

P.S. Jokin... I purposely spell though wrong.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 10:04 PM
I could have sworn it was earlier then that, oops, maybe it was just being talked about a ton leading up to it.

spycake
12-07-2012, 10:08 PM
I think teams rarely trade for a non-tender candidate. Odds are they will be cheaper on the open market. Remember David Ortiz?

One of the rare examples of a likely non-tender trade was Craig Monroe. Which further illustrates why such trades are generally a bad idea.

Rosterman
12-07-2012, 10:15 PM
He is a guy that will sign for less. How much less...who knows. Marquis $3 million? Pavano is even looking for $3 mill w/incentives. Van he drop lower? One of those guys that might just end up with a minor league split contract, which would be to the Twins advantage. t some point, ALL 40-man roster spots will fill and there will be some bargains. The Twins still have two roster spots, so they can make decent offers to the alsorans.

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 10:31 PM
He is a guy that will sign for less. How much less...who knows. Marquis $3 million? Pavano is even looking for $3 mill w/incentives. Van he drop lower? One of those guys that might just end up with a minor league split contract, which would be to the Twins advantage. t some point, ALL 40-man roster spots will fill and there will be some bargains. The Twins still have two roster spots, so they can make decent offers to the alsorans.

That might of been his thought but Im not so sure after looking at Blantons deal.

Lannan is younger with better numbers with the numbers that matter anyway.

old nurse
12-07-2012, 11:14 PM
Seriously... That's how you spell Elude? lol... I've been spelling it allude my whole life and I love that word... I use it all the time and no one has ever corrected me... I spit my beer out of my nose laughing. So it seems that the spelling of Allude... ELUDES me... Too funny.

Lannan was non tendered a day after the Span trade I believe... I guess we will have to see if he goes cheaper. He might and I assume that was TRs thought... He might lose this dice roll tho.

P.S. Jokin... I purposely spell though wrong.

al·lude
[ ə ld ]

(http://twinsdaily.com/caption/image/?bid=7QlPL2lax7JGaA&bn=EDPG&FORM=DTPDIA)


mention indirectly: to refer to something or somebody indirectly, without giving a precise name or explicit identification

Synonyms: refer, make reference, make allusion, mention (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+mention&FORM=DTPDIA), indicate (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+indicate&FORM=DTPDIA), suggest (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+suggest&FORM=DTPDIA), talk about, touch on (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+touch+on&FORM=DTPDIA), introduce (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+introduce&FORM=DTPDIA), refer in passing, make a passing reference

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 11:22 PM
Seriously... That's how you spell Elude? lol... I've been spelling it allude my whole life and I love that word... I use it all the time and no one has ever corrected me... I spit my beer out of my nose laughing. So it seems that the spelling of Allude... ELUDES me... Too funny.

Lannan was non tendered a day after the Span trade I believe... I guess we will have to see if he goes cheaper. He might and I assume that was TRs thought... He might lose this dice roll tho.

P.S. Jokin... I purposely spell though wrong.

al·lude
[ ə ld ]

(http://twinsdaily.com/caption/image/?bid=7QlPL2lax7JGaA&bn=EDPG&FORM=DTPDIA)


mention indirectly: to refer to something or somebody indirectly, without giving a precise name or explicit identification

Synonyms: refer, make reference, make allusion, mention (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+mention&FORM=DTPDIA), indicate (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+indicate&FORM=DTPDIA), suggest (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+suggest&FORM=DTPDIA), talk about, touch on (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+touch+on&FORM=DTPDIA), introduce (http://twinsdaily.com/Dictionary/search?q=define+introduce&FORM=DTPDIA), refer in passing, make a passing reference

lol... Thanks nurse... That's good stuff. All words should be explained just like that... If someone collected all the words and put them in a book with definitions. It would be a good book to have. Lots of folks would buy it.

Its probably too much work tho... So it's probably an unreasonable dream.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 11:26 PM
He is a guy that will sign for less. How much less...who knows. Marquis $3 million? Pavano is even looking for $3 mill w/incentives. Van he drop lower? One of those guys that might just end up with a minor league split contract, which would be to the Twins advantage. t some point, ALL 40-man roster spots will fill and there will be some bargains. The Twins still have two roster spots, so they can make decent offers to the alsorans.

Lannan is younger with better numbers with the numbers that matter anyway.
I dunno, Blanton can at least strike guys out.

I wouldn't want Lannan at 1 year 5.5-6 mil anyways (which is what he would have prob got) Again there is a good chance Hendriks would out preform him this year. The Twins need to be either:

1. Signing/trading for high upside guys.
2. If they are signing back of the rotation guys, spend no more then 1 year/2-3 mil a piece.
That might of been his thought but Im not so sure after looking at Blantons deal.

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 11:29 PM
He is a guy that will sign for less. How much less...who knows. Marquis $3 million? Pavano is even looking for $3 mill w/incentives. Van he drop lower? One of those guys that might just end up with a minor league split contract, which would be to the Twins advantage. t some point, ALL 40-man roster spots will fill and there will be some bargains. The Twins still have two roster spots, so they can make decent offers to the alsorans.

Lannan is younger with better numbers with the numbers that matter anyway.
I dunno, Blanton can at least strike guys out.

I wouldn't want Lannan at 1 year 5.5-6 mil anyways (which is what he would have prob got) Again there is a good chance Hendriks would out preform him this year. The Twins need to be either:

1. Signing/trading for high upside guys.
2. If they are signing back of the rotation guys, spend no more then 1 year/2-3 mil a piece.
That might of been his thought but Im not so sure after looking at Blantons deal.

ill take Lannan if TR wants him because we need extra arms because someone or two is gonna get hurt. But yeah.. He ain't my fave.

The prices are nuts... It's looking like TR should have taken him in the Span trade... I guess we will see in time.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 11:33 PM
The prices are nuts... It's looking like TR should have taken him in the Span trade... I guess we will see in time.

I mean, honestly neither of us know. But I am willing to bet Lannan doesn't get the 6 million for one year on the open market he would have got through arb.

I would be willing to do a friendly wager if you want?

Loser buys the winner a Diamondcentric t-shirt? :)

terms: If lannan gets a one year deal it's less then 6 million.
if he gets multi year its less then 5.5 mill per season.

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 11:38 PM
The prices are nuts... It's looking like TR should have taken him in the Span trade... I guess we will see in time.

I mean, honestly neither of us know. But I am willing to bet Lannan doesn't get the 6 million for one year on the open market he would have got through arb.

I would be willing to do a friendly wager if you want?

Loser buys the winner a Diamondcentric t-shirt? :)

terms: If lannan gets a one year deal it's less then 6 million.
if he gets multi year its less then 5.5 mill per season.

Im not sure he gets 6 in arb,.. Make it 5.5 per year for a 1 year or Multi year deal... 5.5 avg. per year will be the over/under.

I'll take the bet just for the sport. Even tho... I kinda think you will win.

Riverbrian
12-07-2012, 11:40 PM
Hold on... Now much are those Diamondcentric shirts???

My wallet for sure has an over/under.

I just looked them up... The nothing runs like Revere shirt would be perfect for both of us... 6 bucks... Are you in?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-07-2012, 11:52 PM
Hold on... Now much are those Diamondcentric shirts???

My wallet for sure has an over/under.

I just looked them up... The nothing runs like Revere shirt would be perfect for both of us... 6 bucks... Are you in?

Sure! I can always give the shirt to my Phillies friend haha

Riverbrian
12-08-2012, 12:00 AM
Ok... This thread becomes a poll... Dave has under 5.5 per year and I have over 5.5 on Lannan. Who will win?

To make it more interesting... If he signs for exactly 5.5 avg. per year. We both have to express the exact opposite of what we actually think on this site for a week.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 12:15 AM
Ok... This thread becomes a poll... Dave has under 5.5 per year and I have over 5.5 on Lannan. Who will win?

To make it more interesting... If he signs for exactly 5.5 avg. per year. We both have to express the exact opposite of what we actually think on this site for a week.

As long as it isn't a push... Twinsdaily/Diamondcentric wins.
Good luck to you sir (unless its the Twins who give him 6 million a year, then I might be a little bummed out)

Riverbrian
12-08-2012, 12:31 AM
This will be fun.

Shane Wahl
12-08-2012, 12:39 AM
There likely are idiotic GMs out there. If they were all rational, Lannan would barely make more than a minor league contract. Why? Because he is bad. Not Chone Figgins terrible, but bad. There is no reason to bother with this guy at all. DeVries and Deduno would both be better in 2013.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 12:51 AM
There likely are idiotic GMs out there. If they were all rational, Lannan would barely make more than a minor league contract. Why? Because he is bad. Not Chone Figgins terrible, but bad. There is no reason to bother with this guy at all. DeVries and Deduno would both be better in 2013.
I think that is a little overkill.

I don't want him on the Twins really, but Lannan does have a 4.01 ERA in 780 major league innings as a starter. That certainly deserves at least a one year major league contract at 2-3 million. His peripherals aren't pretty no doubt, but he has been a perfectly solid back end guy in 3 of his 4 full seasons (sub 3.95 ERA's) and even his worst year (4.65 ERA) wasn't exactly the biggest disaster ever.

Again, I don't want him on the Twins bc of the lack of upside, but if they do sign him to a 1 year 2-3 mil deal I wouldn't get to worked up about it. Just because he spent last year in AAA doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a major league roster spot. Not all teams had the Nationals starting rotation last year :)

Also I would be pretty surprised if either DeDuno or DeVries has a better season then him next year. I have zero trust in them to produce over a full season, and think they are best served as org depth who can come up and not kill you if a pitcher goes on the DL for a few weeks.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 12:59 AM
Also fun stat:
Lannan career ERA: 4.01
Dempster career ERA: 4.33

last 3 full years: Dempster: 4.04 ERA
Lannan: 4.03 (4.13 if you don't count his 2009 and swap in 2012 instead)

Lannan: 28 Years old
Dempster:35 Years old

Off topic: I have no idea why people are talking about giving 30+ million and 3 years to Dempster!!!!

Shane Wahl
12-08-2012, 01:11 AM
I was not aware that ERA was the end all, be all stat. The guy barely strikes more people out than he walks and it's all going south. Dempster had a rough 2011, but 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012 were all very good.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 01:20 AM
I was not aware that ERA was the end all, be all stat. The guy barely strikes more people out than he walks and it's all going south. Dempster had a rough 2011, but 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012 were all very good.

Did I ever say it was an end all be all stat? I was just pointing out that if you look at their careers, and past 3 years, the "results" are pretty similar. Also a guy like Dempster at age 35 isn't likely to suddenly show some huge vast improvement.

By no means am I saying Lannan is a better pitcher then Dempster, I am just saying that giving Dempster 30-39 mil over 3 years is a mistake.

Riverbrian
12-08-2012, 01:25 AM
ERA isn't the end all be all stat because its a team game. ERAs can be distorted by Good Defense and Not so good defense. Distorted by RP failures. But it's still a pretty nice indicator.

WHIP is still my favorite and Lannan is a little below average in that department... Yet so Is Pelfrey... So go figure. I can be as conflicted as the rest of us.

glunn
12-08-2012, 01:27 AM
How has Lannan kept his ERA so low? Lots of ground balls? Luck? Voodoo?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 01:31 AM
How has Lannan kept his ERA so low? Lots of ground balls? Luck? Voodoo?

A combination of good defense and a decent but by no means great GB% (53%) Dempster is 46% FWIW

old nurse
12-08-2012, 01:38 AM
Let's cherry pick stats and call ourselves right. Over the last 6 years Dempster will win a dozen games, lose about the same, and get to the mound 30 times a year. For that he will be absurdly paid. xfip and War would lead you to believe that Dempster is just above an average pitcher while Lannan is below average. On a very good team he won a few games. Who knows, if cheap enough the Twins will coach him up a level.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-08-2012, 01:43 AM
Let's cherry pick stats and call ourselves right. Over the last 6 years Dempster will win a dozen games, lose about the same, and get to the mound 30 times a year. For that he will be absurdly paid. xfip and War would lead you to believe that Dempster is just above an average pitcher while Lannan is below average. On a very good team he won a few games. Who knows, if cheap enough the Twins will coach him up a level.
I don't disagree with a thing you just said. I think Dempster is a safer bet to be "better" in 2013/2014 then Lannan. My whole point is I don't want the Twins rushing out to overpay for Dempster a guy who is "just above an average pitcher" who is 35.

but if you ask me who I would rather have:
Lannan at 2-3 mil for 1 year
or Dempster for 33-39 mil for 3 years?

Give me Lannan any day. Worst case scenario is he sucks and the Twins live to fight (spend) another day/year. Signing Dempster long term could hurt our potential to bring in not only help this year, but moving forward.

As they say, there really is no such thing as a "terrible" one year deal.

Riverbrian
12-08-2012, 01:44 AM
How has Lannan kept his ERA so low? Lots of ground balls? Luck? Voodoo?

I watched him pitch a couple of games... His fastball isn't hard but it sinks. If he keeps it down he can be effective and its one of the best pitches for getting out of jams. But guys that rely on the sinker get lit up if they leave it up. A good example of that is... Blackburn.

I like guys who can get a good sink on their two seamer but I feel more comfortable with guys who also have a 2nd pitch if they lose command of that sinker. That is where Lannan could get into trouble and exactly where Blackie got into trouble.

Pelfrey on the other hand is similiar but his sinker is much harder and I think his arm strength will let him get away with mistakes easier.