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Nick Nelson
12-02-2012, 10:54 PM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1217-In-Terry-I-Trust

Fanatic Jack
12-02-2012, 11:35 PM
This is a good trade for the future but it does nothing to help the team compete in 2013. You must have missed the fan forum in late September when Ryan told season ticket holders the team was going to compete in 2013 and he wanted only Major League talent in return for any trade. Ryan also said he was going to use trades to improve the roster because the free agent market was very thin. He heads into the Winter Meetings not looking to trade anybody but to sign mediocre, cheap free agents. The dumpster diving method is not going to change things next year.

Otwins
12-03-2012, 12:12 AM
This is a good trade for the future but it does nothing to help the team compete in 2013. You must have missed the fan forum in late September when Ryan told season ticket holders the team was going to compete in 2013 and he wanted only Major League talent in return for any trade. Ryan also said he was going to use trades to improve the roster because the free agent market was very thin. He heads into the Winter Meetings not looking to trade anybody but to sign mediocre, cheap free agents. The dumpster diving method is not going to change things next year.

If they use the money that was committed to Span ( 20 million next 3 years if you include his option) to sign a quality free agent pitcher, then this move definitely could help them next year. I think the Twins next move will tell us if they are serious about next year or are starting to rebuild. Personally I hope they rebuild.

h2oface
12-03-2012, 12:48 AM
I don't trust in Terry at all. Why should anyone? Ryan stated in September to the season ticket holders one thing, and then did another. Trustworthy? Span has first round pedigree, too, and hey, so does Levi Michael. I'll be holding my breath on that one. On top of it all...... It was Rizzo that had coveted Span for a long time. Terry Ryan folded and got taken, and left cards on the table. It turns out that regardless of the contract, as reported today at MLB Trade Rumors, that Rizzo and the Nats wanted Span more than any of the center fielders available. Ryan made the weak play. There was a takeaway not played, and an additional player to be had that Ryan was not player enough to get. Washington DID get a proven player ready to help immediately and for several years, and the Twins got a hope.

Chris in Osaka
12-03-2012, 12:55 AM
Let's hope that Morneau and Willingham are moved next. The team, which shouldn't pretend that it can compete in 2013, must turn its attention to 2014 and beyond.

kirbyelway
12-03-2012, 06:12 AM
i don't trust in terry at all. why should anyone? ryan stated in september to the season ticket holders one thing, and then did another. trustworthy? span has first round pedigree, too, and hey, so does levi machael. i'll be holding my breath on that one. on top of it all...... it was rizzo that had coveted span for a long time. terry ryan folded and got taken, and left cards on the table. it turns out that regardless of the contract, as reported today at mlb trade rumors, that rizzo and the nats wanted span more than any of the centerfielders available. ryan made the weak play. there was a takeaway not played, and an additional player to be had that ryan was not player enough to get. washington DID get a proven player ready to help immediately and for several years, and the twins got a hope.

Obviously you think he should be able to work miracles. Give TR some time and you will see once again why he is a winner and he has this organization on the right path.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 08:19 AM
Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 08:27 AM
I liked the trade even if it doesn't help next years team (unless Meyer explodes in AA ball but even then it would be unlikely).

I'm also pretty sure the Twins aren't done so it's a bit early to say that Ryan isn't doing anything about 2013. It is possible that we have a repeat of last years team but I'll give Ryan time to fix the rotation.

mike wants wins
12-03-2012, 08:30 AM
Since this is pretty much what I asked for.....no issues with the trade. But I will not trust him on free agents until he actually signs one he is competing for, for real money. Still hopeful....

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 08:53 AM
This is a good trade for the future but it does nothing to help the team compete in 2013. You must have missed the fan forum in late September when Ryan told season ticket holders the team was going to compete in 2013 and he wanted only Major League talent in return for any trade. Ryan also said he was going to use trades to improve the roster because the free agent market was very thin. He heads into the Winter Meetings not looking to trade anybody but to sign mediocre, cheap free agents. The dumpster diving method is not going to change things next year.

Who cares what he said in the conference call, Ryan still plans to compete in 2013 and if he signs 2-3 FA pitchers the Twins very well could compete. I'm sure he would have preferred major league ready talent in return for Span, but like he said, any guy with an Ace like upside is basically untouchable by the time they get to the higher levels in the minors. Ryan made the best trade possible, would you have been happier if they would have traded him for some #4 at the major league level or something?

twinsnorth49
12-03-2012, 09:04 AM
i don't trust in terry at all. why should anyone? ryan stated in september to the season ticket holders one thing, and then did another. trustworthy? span has first round pedigree, too, and hey, so does levi machael. i'll be holding my breath on that one. on top of it all...... it was rizzo that had coveted span for a long time. terry ryan folded and got taken, and left cards on the table. it turns out that regardless of the contract, as reported today at mlb trade rumors, that rizzo and the nats wanted span more than any of the centerfielders available. ryan made the weak play. there was a takeaway not played, and an additional player to be had that ryan was not player enough to get. washington DID get a proven player ready to help immediately and for several years, and the twins got a hope.

I think you need to throw some more water on your face. What cards were left on the table? Who was this additional player you speak of? What exactly are you talking about?

Boom Boom
12-03-2012, 09:14 AM
Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

Brock, it sounds like you're praising TR because of the speculation that he waited out the Nationals in order to get Meyer. We don't know what was on the table, if anything, in July. As Nick mentioned, technically Meyer couldn't be traded back then, except as a PTBNL, and I don't think TR would have traded Span for a PTBNL.

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 09:27 AM
Since this is pretty much what I asked for.....no issues with the trade. But I will not trust him on free agents until he actually signs one he is competing for, for real money. Still hopeful....

Willingham doesn't count?

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 09:28 AM
Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

Brock, it sounds like you're praising TR because of the speculation that he waited out the Nationals in order to get Meyer. We don't know what was on the table, if anything, in July. As Nick mentioned, technically Meyer couldn't be traded back then, except as a PTBNL, and I don't think TR would have traded Span for a PTBNL.

It's speculation but the timing is hard to deny. The Braves get better by signing the best FA center fielder and two days later, the Nats and Twins finally come to an agreement. The Twins weren't pressured to make the deal; they still had other options to deal Span. It was Rizzo feeling the heat and he's probably the one who caved.

mike wants wins
12-03-2012, 09:33 AM
Not for me. He was not outbidding anyone for Josh, and was a payroll cut. I want to see him replace a guy with guys a lot more expensive before I believe he will spend what it takes to win. Willingham was a great sign, but it was a budget cut that they then, shockingly pocketed....when he goes out and beats another team for a free agent, then I will believe he is trying to make the team better, not just cheaper. Ymmv.

Boom Boom
12-03-2012, 09:36 AM
Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

Brock, it sounds like you're praising TR because of the speculation that he waited out the Nationals in order to get Meyer. We don't know what was on the table, if anything, in July. As Nick mentioned, technically Meyer couldn't be traded back then, except as a PTBNL, and I don't think TR would have traded Span for a PTBNL.

It's speculation but the timing is hard to deny. The Braves get better by signing the best FA center fielder and two days later, the Nats and Twins finally come to an agreement. The Twins weren't pressured to make the deal; they still had other options to deal Span. It was Rizzo feeling the heat and he's probably the one who caved.

You're giving TR way too much credit. The Braves signing Upton hurt the Nationals' options for obtaining a CF, certainly, but it also took the Braves out of the mix as a potential trade partner for the Twins, so it also hurt the Twins' leverage on any potential Span trade.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 09:39 AM
You're giving TR way too much credit. The Braves signing Upton hurt the Nationals' options for obtaining a CF, certainly, but it also took the Braves out of the mix as a potential trade partner for the Twins, so it also hurt the Twins' leverage on any potential Span trade.

I disagree. The Reds may have still been in the mix along with other teams that need OF help. I think it's a little too convenient that Upton goes to the Braves (the Nats biggest rival) and then Rizzo suddenly pulls the trigger on Span. Ryan had no reason to feel the same pressure that Rizzo was undoubtedly feeling.

Either way, the trade was not a steal for either side. It was fair value for both teams, IMO. This isn't a Pierzynski Redux.

birdwatcher
12-03-2012, 09:42 AM
The Span/Meyer trade details are simply speculation. Why re-hash it? And it doesn't matter really.

There is a range of expectations associated with what "fixing" the 2013 team means. I'd much rather hear your opinions about what you think Ryan's expectations are for 2013, and what your own expectations are. What would satisfy you for 2013? A .500 club? More?

Jim H
12-03-2012, 09:54 AM
Lots of interesting speculation on this. I doubt if we ever know if one side "caved" on this trade or not. It is hardly in anyone's interest to reveal that. What is true, is that it will be years before this trade can be fairly evalulated. There is a pretty chance Span will continue to be largely what he has been. Meyer could turn into an ace, a good starting pitcher, a closer, a decent reliever or never reach the majors at all.

jm3319
12-03-2012, 10:06 AM
Not for me. He was not outbidding anyone for Josh, and was a payroll cut. I want to see him replace a guy with guys a lot more expensive before I believe he will spend what it takes to win. Willingham was a great sign, but it was a budget cut that they then, shockingly pocketed....when he goes out and beats another team for a free agent, then I will believe he is trying to make the team better, not just cheaper. Ymmv.

So if we had given Willingham something like 18M a year you would have been happier? Sounds like all you want is upgrades to the payroll and not worried about the return. Getting cheaper and better, like the Twins did by signing Willingham, is the ultimate win-win for a team.

Boom Boom
12-03-2012, 10:07 AM
We know about as much about the Span/Meyer trade talks as we do about Terry Ryan's role in Bill Smith's regime.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 10:09 AM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.

mike wants wins
12-03-2012, 10:22 AM
Not what I said. I said signing Willingham was good deal. But I also said I will believe he is trying to make the team better, not just cheaper, when he competes with other teams for players, and signs them. When he increases the payroll, then I will believe him when he says money is not an issue. But he gave that money back to the owners last year....like I also said, still hoping.

twinsnorth49
12-03-2012, 10:36 AM
Not what I said. I said signing Willingham was good deal. But I also said I will believe he is trying to make the team better, not just cheaper, when he competes with other teams for players, and signs them. When he increases the payroll, then I will believe him when he says money is not an issue. But he gave that money back to the owners last year....like I also said, still hoping.


He gave that money back to the owners because he, rightfully, wasn't going to give Cuddyer at least 3/30, so he signed Willingham for what Cuddyer should have been worth and came out ahead. Would giving Cuddyer 3/31.5 have made you happier than signing Willingham?

mike wants wins
12-03-2012, 10:41 AM
No, putting that money into real pitching would have though. Does no one think cutting cost had anything to do with those decisions? When he replaces guys with expensive guys, I will believe him when he says money is not an issue. You have the right to draw different conclusions from his actions than I do. I just have not, yet, seen actions that would lead me to believe him.

DAM DC Twins Fans
12-03-2012, 11:02 AM
Lots of interesting speculation on this. I doubt if we ever know if one side "caved" on this trade or not. It is hardly in anyone's interest to reveal that. What is true, is that it will be years before this trade can be fairly evalulated. There is a pretty chance Span will continue to be largely what he has been. Meyer could turn into an ace, a good starting pitcher, a closer, a decent reliever or never reach the majors at all.

Sounds like the discussion I had this weekend with my son who is a Nats fan...this trade is a huge gamble for both teams. We have no idea what Meyer will be in 2015 (ace, closer, starter, bullpen guy, still in minors). Nats have no idea about Span--he has concussion (and other) injury history. Span gives them leverage to trade LaRoche, Morse, etc but do they hold on to them in case of injury...

Very interesting trade--I agree with Nick--rather see the Twins get a potential ace in 2015 for Span than a mediocre number 3 starter like Edwin Jackson, Joe Blanton, etc. who may (or may not) add 5 wins in 2013.

birdwatcher
12-03-2012, 11:06 AM
Good point, Boom Boom. As a matter of fact, five dozen members of the Twins scouting and development staff played a role in Bill Smith's regime. And Ryan's. They met as a group at the end of the season, like they do every year. Despite thrylos's beliefs to the contrary, they all have cell phones and email accounts. They're probably expected to have and share their opinions. We don't have a clue as to how it all works.

Wouldn't it be fun to have access to what all these professionals have to say? But what the hell, at least we have each other.

Twins Twerp
12-03-2012, 11:10 AM
I love the trade. Span's value will never again be as high as it is right now. He is very injury prone. Guys like Meyer are rarely traded. The Nationals were desperate and gave up a whole lot. People are mad that we are punting on next season, but it is day one of the winter meetings. We could still sign a decent pitcher or two and still compete next season. Baseball is a funny game, the winners of the offseason rarely translates to winners during the regular or post season.

Boom Boom
12-03-2012, 11:13 AM
Good point, Boom Boom. As a matter of fact, five dozen members of the Twins scouting and development staff played a role in Bill Smith's regime. And Ryan's. They met as a group at the end of the season, like they do every year. Despite thrylos's beliefs to the contrary, they all have cell phones and email accounts. They're probably expected to have and share their opinions. We don't have a clue as to how it all works.

Wouldn't it be fun to have access to what all these professionals have to say? But what the hell, at least we have each other.

I guess we'll never know.

If you can't rip TR for something that you have no intimate knowledge of, then you probably can't praise him for that kind of thing either. Or you can do both.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 11:23 AM
Good point, Boom Boom. As a matter of fact, five dozen members of the Twins scouting and development staff played a role in Bill Smith's regime. And Ryan's. They met as a group at the end of the season, like they do every year. Despite thrylos's beliefs to the contrary, they all have cell phones and email accounts. They're probably expected to have and share their opinions. We don't have a clue as to how it all works.

Wouldn't it be fun to have access to what all these professionals have to say? But what the hell, at least we have each other.

I guess we'll never know.

If you can't rip TR for something that you have no intimate knowledge of, then you probably can't praise him for that kind of thing either. Or you can do both.

The obvious difference being that Ryan was in the bosses' chair for one of those moves and not the others.

roger
12-03-2012, 11:59 AM
We know about as much about the Span/Meyer trade talks as we do about Terry Ryan's role in Bill Smith's regime.

No, we know more about Mr. Ryan's role in Bill Smith's regime. Anyone that knows Mr. Ryan, even a little, knows that he would take a back seat once he left the GM's office. His involvement in Mr. Smith's decisions would be only if asked.

roger
12-03-2012, 12:06 PM
Not what I said. I said signing Willingham was good deal. But I also said I will believe he is trying to make the team better, not just cheaper, when he competes with other teams for players, and signs them. When he increases the payroll, then I will believe him when he says money is not an issue. But he gave that money back to the owners last year....like I also said, still hoping.

No, he didn't give it back to the owners. It was used to sign Buxton, Berrios, Bard, et.al. The Twins spent well over $15mm last year in the draft and signing International players ($12mm on first ten rounds, $2.9mm International), versus roughly half that in previous years. Add those dollars to what was spent on major league payroll and the difference is much smaller.

Dave T
12-03-2012, 12:09 PM
One thing to like about the trade for Meyer: Signing a veteran pitcher on a one-year "rental" can now be justified.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 12:11 PM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

ashburyjohn
12-03-2012, 12:11 PM
One thing to like about the trade for Meyer: Signing a veteran pitcher on a one-year "rental" can now be justified.

Which is why I am skeptical about signing someone older like Dempster for 3 years.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 12:20 PM
Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP.

Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 12:29 PM
Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP.

Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.

First off, that's not really accurate:

Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342
Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298

Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall.

Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power.

Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span.

IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries.

StormJH1
12-03-2012, 12:30 PM
Good article, and I'm fine with the deal. It's too easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. People look at the MLB club and think that any trade for Span has to address that immediate need. It doesn't. It is equally important for the long-term health of this team to address setbacks with guys like Gibson and Wimmers who were recent draft picks and should have been contributing to the big league club.

If Meyer gets hurt at some point, everyone will turn on this trade, and I think that's foolish. You need a critical mass of potential starters in different stages of development. The 2012 draft was a pretty good effort to stock guys under 20, like Berrios. They also tried a unique strategy of taking accomplished college RP's and making them into starters. Given the low likelihood of actually signing high school pitchers past the first few rounds under the new rules, I've actually come to think that's an intriguing approach.

But guys as good as Mike Leake or any of the other middling starters we might have gotten for Span can be found on the FA market - prospects like Meyer cannot. Let's start getting a bunch of these guys whenever we can, and hope that a few of them pan out.

Boom Boom
12-03-2012, 12:41 PM
Good point, Boom Boom. As a matter of fact, five dozen members of the Twins scouting and development staff played a role in Bill Smith's regime. And Ryan's. They met as a group at the end of the season, like they do every year. Despite thrylos's beliefs to the contrary, they all have cell phones and email accounts. They're probably expected to have and share their opinions. We don't have a clue as to how it all works.

Wouldn't it be fun to have access to what all these professionals have to say? But what the hell, at least we have each other.

I guess we'll never know.

If you can't rip TR for something that you have no intimate knowledge of, then you probably can't praise him for that kind of thing either. Or you can do both.

The obvious difference being that Ryan was in the bosses' chair for one of those moves and not the others.

OK, we'll put the shoe on the other foot then.

Great move by Rizzo. The Nationals probably never wanted Upton anyway, and were just waiting for him to sign so that the Twins' options for trading Span were more limited and the Nats didn't have to give up anything more than one A-ball prospect. The Twins were probably asking for more than Meyers for Span, but when interest from the Braves dried up they were left holding the bag. It's obvious that the Nationals had their eyes on Span all along and were never all that interested in Upton.

Seth Stohs
12-03-2012, 12:42 PM
Not for me. He was not outbidding anyone for Josh, and was a payroll cut. I want to see him replace a guy with guys a lot more expensive before I believe he will spend what it takes to win. Willingham was a great sign, but it was a budget cut that they then, shockingly pocketed....when he goes out and beats another team for a free agent, then I will believe he is trying to make the team better, not just cheaper. Ymmv.

So if we had given Willingham something like 18M a year you would have been happier? Sounds like all you want is upgrades to the payroll and not worried about the return. Getting cheaper and better, like the Twins did by signing Willingham, is the ultimate win-win for a team.

Absolutely agree. I guess the Twins could have given Willingham or Doumit more than they did. I guess that would make people happier! :) By definition, any free agent signing is signed for more than market value. Most times, the team that 'wins' pays more than any of the other 29 teams would have paid.

Jim Crikket
12-03-2012, 12:44 PM
I trust Terry Ryan, too. I believe he's a savvy baseball mind and a decent negotiator. I trust him to get as much out of his allowed payroll number as almost any GM in baseball.

I don't trust what he says publicly, however. Like most of us, he's not free to make public statements that put his employer in a bad light... and while I trust Ryan's abilities, I do not trust his employer much at all.

In their final years at the Metrodome, the Twins had payrolls of about $65 million a year. Had they stayed at the 'dome and continued to be recipients of revenue sharing money rather than contributors, I think we'd be looking at payrolls in the mid $80 millions (assuming the infamous 50% of revenue standard) at this point. So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.

Failing to add pitching over the past couple of years means Ryan will have to pay a premium for legitimate free agent SPs now to get them to sign with a bad team. In interviews over the past couple months, he's seemed to acknowledge that improving the rotation will cost money and require multiple year contracts. More recently, however, his quotes have returned (http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_22107030/minnesota-twins-theyre-pitching-poor-but-not-looking)to the "We're going to make reasonable baseball decisions" standard we've been accustomed to for years. Translated, this has typically meant dumpster diving.

Based on his comments earlier in the offseason (including those to John Bonnes), I don't think that's what Ryan wanted to do this year. But while other owners are apparently willing to let their GMs spend a little bit of the new National TV money a year before it arrives, I'm guessing Ryan is getting no such latitude from his ownership. The result is that FA price inflation is taking all of the pitching that could truly help the Twins out of Ryan's price range.

Trusting Terry Ryan is one thing, but what has Jim Pohlad done to make anyone believe we should trust him?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 12:54 PM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? Or his negative dWAR? Are those defensive metrics you're referring to?

He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did. And you say he's 'above average'

Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before.

He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW)

Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF

johnnydakota
12-03-2012, 12:58 PM
Lots of interesting speculation on this. I doubt if we ever know if one side "caved" on this trade or not. It is hardly in anyone's interest to reveal that. What is true, is that it will be years before this trade can be fairly evalulated. There is a pretty chance Span will continue to be largely what he has been. Meyer could turn into an ace, a good starting pitcher, a closer, a decent reliever or never reach the majors at all.

110 million dollar payroll, With 2 prospects with no place to play why not trade justin and a prospect for either torontos Dárnaud or texas 3b olt? We would be adding quality to the infield and saving 15 million . That would give us about 55 million to spend and enough to sign Anibal Sanchez to a 4 year contract at 15 million per with a 5 th year option at 20 million,along with either Jackson or Dempster at 12-14 million per year. That would give us enough money to sign Hamilton to replace Justins left handed power and allow Revere to play left field and ham moving to dh ,improving our defense in the outfield and giving us an exciting rotation and a killer batting order. ok now that your maybe done laughing remember inflation and we are still 1-3 years from seeing our top prospect from arriving, and when they do we will have trade chips in the players we signed this year to reload the minors ,or to add a player or 2 to make a run at a title..

Nick Nelson
12-03-2012, 01:05 PM
So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.
Why don't we wait and see how much he actually spends before getting disgusted? I agree with your overall viewpoints about payroll but this seems like needless hand-wringing to me.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:05 PM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did?

Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before.

Are those defensive metrics you're referring to??

He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW)

Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF

Well you are the one who is using one year's worth of defensive stats. Anyone that understands how defensive advanced metrics works knows that it is better to take a longer look type approach to it rather then just one year at a time. In 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Upton rated as above average in total fielding and UZR. So basically we have 5 years that say above average and 1 year below average....hmm....I wonder what conclusions we can draw from that.

Keep sticking to the smaller picture though!

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 01:06 PM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Both brWAR and fangraphs UZR have Upton listed as a negative defender now. Last year, both rWAR and fWAR would have Span as the slightly better player (although that comes with all the WAR is really not that accurate admonitions). I'd prefer Upton for his durability but it's close.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:09 PM
Also: Career UZR/150:

Span: 4.5
Upton: 3.9

Like I said before, very similar with maybe a slight advantage to Span. Upton however has the significant advantage in offense and base running.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 01:09 PM
Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP.

Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.

First off, that's not really accurate:

Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342
Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298

Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall.

Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power.

Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span.

IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries.

Except that Span's line was crushed in 2011 by injuries and his 2010 was just pretty miserable overall. 2012 is the first season since the Metrodome where he looked like the Span of old. It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:11 PM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Both brWAR and fangraphs UZR have Upton listed as a negative defender now. Last year, both rWAR and fWAR would have Span as the slightly better player (although that comes with all the WAR is really not that accurate admonitions). I'd prefer Upton for his durability but it's close.

See my comment before your post. In the 5 years prior to 2012 Upton was listed as a positive defender in CF. Moving forward I will take the 5 plus years over the 1 negative year as a sign of things to come, especially from a 28 year old.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:12 PM
Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did?

Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before.

Are those defensive metrics you're referring to??

He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW)

Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF

Well you are the one who is using one year's worth of defensive stats. Anyone that understands how defensive advanced metrics works knows that it is better to take a longer look type approach to it rather then just one year at a time. In 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Upton rated as above average in total fielding and UZR. So basically we have 5 years that say above average and 1 year below average....hmm....I wonder what conclusions we can draw from that.

Keep sticking to the smaller picture though!

Yeah, they say look at the last three years...did you see the negative defensive runs saved for 2010 and 2011?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:12 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 01:12 PM
OK, we'll put the shoe on the other foot then.

Great move by Rizzo. The Nationals probably never wanted Upton anyway, and were just waiting for him to sign so that the Twins' options for trading Span were more limited and the Nats didn't have to give up anything more than one A-ball prospect. The Twins were probably asking for more than Meyers for Span, but when interest from the Braves dried up they were left holding the bag. It's obvious that the Nationals had their eyes on Span all along and were never all that interested in Upton.

That doesn't make any sense, really.

1. The Braves and Nationals were not the only potential trade partners for Span while Denard was the best centerfielder still on the market.

2. Ryan didn't have to trade Span. He also has Revere and Willingham on the roster, who could easily be dished to several other teams if the market for Span was shallow.

3. The Twins are not under pressure to win while the Nationals just saw their biggest rival pick up the best outfielder on the market. With Denard under contract for three more years, who do you think was pressured into making a move? It wasn't Ryan.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:14 PM
Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP.

Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.

First off, that's not really accurate:

Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342
Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298

Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall.

Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power.

Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span.

IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries.

Except that Span's line was crushed in 2011 by injuries and his 2010 was just pretty miserable overall. 2012 is the first season since the Metrodome where he looked like the Span of old. It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case.

Exactly. Span was ranked as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year and Upton was right near the bottom...

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 01:15 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:15 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Something to do with Span's concussion, I imagine...Upton is a below average defensive CF, he strikes out a ton and he hasn't hit over .245 in the last 4 seasons. But chicks dig the long ball...

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:17 PM
Yeah, they say look at the last three years...did you see the negative defensive runs saved for 2010 and 2011?

I see his positive UZR, which is what I use along with the "eye test". I'm not a huge fan of DRS, but since we are on that subject game keep in mind that prior to Revere hoping in the OF along with Span, Span was posting negative defensive runs saved as well (2010 season and before) and actually was posting less OOZ then Upton as well.

What does this all tell us? Upton and Span are very similar, so you can't call one "above average" while dismissing the other as "below average"

mike wants wins
12-03-2012, 01:19 PM
either you are not reading what I am saying, I said it badly, or something else is going on. Because I never once said what you are saying I said. Sometimes I wonder if people are willing to listen to people they do not agree with at all. Because it sure does not feel that way a lot on this site.

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 01:20 PM
See my comment before your post. In the 5 years prior to 2012 Upton was listed as a positive defender in CF. Moving forward I will take the 5 plus years over the 1 negative year as a sign of things to come, especially from a 28 year old.

Maybe, maybe not. But that's getting away from the first point when you said Upton rates as above average in every single defensive statistic out there. That is clearly not the case.

His UZR has fallen considerably over the last five years. Over the last 3 years, it has been pretty bland. Additionally, bWAR's defensive metric has never liked Upton, making him negative for his career.

You might be right. He might still be an above average defender at the age of 28. But others might well suggest that, after nearly 1000 games, many on artificial turf, Upton is starting to show decline in his defensive game. Or defensive stats may be seriously skewered. Look at Carl Crawford. From a great defender to a negative one in one season - that was clearly marred by injury and moving to different positions as well as playing at Fenway where the Monster affects defensive stats (Hardball times had an article pointing to two parks that affected defensive adjustments, Fenway's Monster and the Dome's baggy, so I suppose Span's stats over that five year period could also all be in question).

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:21 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:22 PM
Yeah, they say look at the last three years...did you see the negative defensive runs saved for 2010 and 2011?

I see his positive UZR, which is what I use along with the "eye test". I'm not a huge fan of DRS, but since we are on that subject game keep in mind that prior to Revere hoping in the OF along with Span, Span was posting negative defensive runs saved as well (2010 season and before) and actually was posting less OOZ then Upton as well.

What does this all tell us? Upton and Span are very similar, so you can't call one "above average" while dismissing the other as "below average"

His positive UZR over the last three years? barely...ever so slightly...what .8? Awesome...truly well above average

Nice to see you dismiss the defensive runs saved stat...since it doesn't follow your opinion.

In any event, overall player ability, I take Span...especially when considering contract. Keep thinking I don't know baseball cause of that opinion though....

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:23 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that...

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:25 PM
Maybe, maybe not. But that's getting away from the first point when you said Upton rates as above average in every single defensive statistic out there. That is clearly not the case.

His UZR has fallen considerably over the last five years. Over the last 3 years, it has been pretty bland. Additionally, bWAR's defensive metric has never liked Upton, making him negative for his career.



Exactly...

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 01:26 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).

Jim Crikket
12-03-2012, 01:26 PM
So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.
Why don't we wait and see how much he actually spends before getting disgusted? I agree with your overall viewpoints about payroll but this seems like needless hand-wringing to me.

Sorry, I keep forgetting that TD is only for discussion regarding what has actually transpired.

The $90 million figure is not something just being floated out there online by us know-nothings, it's been appearing in "real" media reports, including the beat writers who supposedly have some level of insight (not to mention contacts within the organization itself) that the rest of us don't.

Of course, the Twins do have years of history where they've had ownership approval to dive right in to the free agent market to get top pitching, so why would anyone doubt them, right?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:27 PM
either you are not reading what I am saying, I said it badly, or something else is going on. Because I never once said what you are saying I said. Sometimes I wonder if people are willing to listen to people they do not agree with at all. Because it sure does not feel that way a lot on this site.

Well, I just had someone say I don't know much about baseball cause I posted an opinion he disagreed with so, yeah, there are people like that here.

JB_Iowa
12-03-2012, 01:29 PM
First, I have no problem with this trade. I really hope that the Twins are rebuilding.

Second, it is FAR too early in TR2 to reach any conclusions about TR's performance - good or bad. As for trusting him... Trust him for what? trust that he is being honest? I don't think he lies but I do think he is pretty closed lipped (I'm not saying that's bad) and he also knows how to bluff (at least with the public). Trust that he will turn this team around? The jury is still out on that one.

Third, there is not one iota of doubt in my mind that the primary reason why Terry Ryan replaced BS as the Twins' GM is because Terry Ryan is fiscally conservative (a/k/a cheap). THAT is probably the one thing about Terry Ryan that I TRUST absolutely.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:29 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

You mean his 2nd full season? Yeah, it's unusual to see a player drop some in his second full season...seems they have a name for that...

LOL, he had 411 PA his "rookie" season. If anything 2010 was closer to his "third year". He dropped off from 2008 to 2009 as well.

Heck I am not even bringing up his injury situation with you. Factor that in and it isn't even close.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 01:30 PM
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:32 PM
Excuses

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

*headdesk*
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

For their careers, Upton has a 105 OPS+, Span a 104. Over the last 5 years, both have a 104. In the same time, Span has a 105 wRC+ to Upton's 106. They are different type of players but about equal in offensive rate stats. (Durability is a different issue).

Teams don't career about what Upton and Span were doing 5 years ago, it's a what have you done for me lately league. Teams look at: What did you do last year? What did you do the last 3 years.

The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:34 PM
Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:37 PM
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).
Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what?

If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 01:44 PM
Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything)

You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time.

Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 01:50 PM
The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 01:52 PM
He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens.

With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).
Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what?

If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence.

Span had a higher OPS at home but his splits were so skewed and 2010 Target Field was so brutal to lefties that the only logical conclusion is that the stadium got into his head. Unless you think Adam Dunn suddenly turned into a piece of crap with the move to the White Sox. Guys struggle in new stadiums, new teams, etc. and it impacts them negatively everywhere. Span's peripherals stayed pretty true (LD, GB, FB, BB) while his IFFB actually dropped and, not surprisingly, his HR/FB plummeted to under 3%. His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.

Tropicana is a pitcher's park, no doubt about it. It's also turf, which helps a speedy guy when he puts it on the ground or lines it to the outfield (which Upton doesn't do often, but he does hit it on the ground 40% of the time). But that's a side argument... I think Upton is a fine player.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:52 PM
Span had a nice bounce back year last year but only started to get strong in the 2nd half. I believe a full heathy Span, which I believe he will be next year after seein his 2nd half the last season.

Span's WAR was 3.9, Upton's was 3.3. Seems close when you see it that way. Then when you look at qualifying players and see Span tied for 43rd while Upton is tied for 61, it's a little bit different.

Upton hits HRs...that's his positive. Very low BA, low OBP, LOTS of Ks, below average defensive CF. But he's flashy...that and his 20Hr power gets him a big contract

So now we are moving this argument all the way down to a 2nd half argument? Well in the 2nd half last year Upton improved quite a bit as well (actually quite a bit more then Span) .819 OPS vs .783, and Upton upped his by 140 points vs Spans 80 points (not that any of this really has anything to do with anything)

You bring up WAR, which is very flawed anyways, but it should be noted that Upton posted a 4.1 and 4.1 in 2010/2011 while Span posted a 2.6 and 2.2. So over those three years Upton had a WAR almost 3 wins total higher then Span during that time.

Additionally, again you say below average CF and you are wrong.

yeah, you're right...Upton is much better than Span...ridiculous to think otherwise. Also ridiculous to think he's a below average defender when the metrics over the last three years shows all his negative defensive runs saved, his UZR a whopping combined .8 over the last three years ( well in the negative this year) and the Fielding Bible award voters completely leaving his name off their ballots the last two years. I'm the one who is wrong as to the kind of defender he is now.

I'm done, you've completely turned me around...you're right, I clearly know very little about baseball..

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 01:57 PM
The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:01 PM
Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?
Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.

tellis205
12-03-2012, 02:04 PM
This trade will look pretty good in 2 years when Meyer looks dominating in a Twins uniform and Span is on the 15 day DL which turns into 60 days with a sprained foot.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:04 PM
Over the next three years, when considering the overall player ability and the contracts, who do you think will be more valuable to his club? Upton or Span?
Yeah, this was never about the contracts as I never contended that part. But way to try to grossly skew the argument at the last second after I pointed out how Upton has been the superior player the past 3 years.

No, I was asking him a different question..a different question free of our debate...

But, again, I'd still take Span...I've already said that more than once. I believe he's the better overall player. I don't back down from that.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:04 PM
The point is, at this stage who is the more valuable player.
Upton in the last 3 years has significantly better offensive numbers in both OPS and OPS+, Upton has value on the basepaths and Upton is much less of a "health risk" defensively we can go back and forth on various metrics, but overall the past 3 years and even before that rate both as above average CF's.

You seem to keep moving your endpoints to suit you. You wanted to use 5 years for defensive stats b/c one year has a sample size issue but most stat guys say use three years for defensive stats. When 1 or 3 years are used, Span is the better defensive player and it isn't particularly close. So you pick 5 which coincides with Upton's best years and Span's worst and also the years defensive stats at the Dome were sorta fuzzy. And that way you get to ignore the downward trend Upton has shown in the defensive stats.

For offense, you won't use 5 years b/c they include Span's best years, so we'll chop it to three, which include Span's injury affected years. But if we use one year or a 5 year time period, we see the offensive differences are basically nil.

And all this was after you used hyperbole to support your nonsense claim that according to all stats, Upton was signficantly better defensively.

You wonder why people are having trouble with your posts?

The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data. I brought up the 5 years to show that when looking at advanced defensive metrics it is often foolish to just look at one year, hell If we still look at the two years prior to 2012 UZR data Upton still shows up as a positive. The fact that he didn't get a vote in the fielding bible this year means nothing to me.

Also, I never said Upton was better defensively then Span, I just said that calling Span above average while Upton below average was disingenuous for the sake of an argument.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:05 PM
This trade will look pretty good in 2 years when Meyer looks dominating in a Twins uniform and Span is on the 15 day DL which turns into 60 days with a sprained foot.

I doubt the DL part, I don't think a player getting a concussion makes him injury prone, but I'm okay with the trade. It's a move for the future. I hope all other trades, if there are any more, go the same route.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:09 PM
The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.

So when I mentioned the Fielding Bible award voters (who judge defenders for a living) not giving him a vote and his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data...and ONLY UZR? That's Interesting. Maybe one needs to go back and look at that post. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:09 PM
His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.


I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 02:12 PM
His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.


I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton.

Again, I don't think one player is significantly better than the other. I only stated that if injuries were no concern, I think I'd rather have Span because he makes less outs.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:12 PM
His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.


I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful.

and his BA under .250 and his 169Ks

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:13 PM
The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.

So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?
I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average?

Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case.

On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:16 PM
His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010.


I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter.

As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then?

Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010.

If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton.

Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:20 PM
The only reason I brought up his 5 years prior of defensive stats was the fact that he was being called "below average" defensively because of one years worth of UZR data.

So when I mentioned his negative defensive runs saved in 2010 and 2011, I was just using one year of data? That's Interesting. On top of that, are you or aren't you the one who said all defensive metrics show he's an above average defender? A combined UZR of .8 over the last three years and an average of -10 defensive runs saved over the last three years show he's above average?
I already mentioned that I prefer to use UZR, and also pointed out that within the last 3 years Span had a negative RS as well. Does that mean he is below average?

Call him what you want, the fact is calling Span "Above Average" while dismissing Upton as "Below Average" was incorrect as it was stating that one player is significantly better defensively, when that just isn't the case.

On the other side of things, I show how Upton is significantly more valuable as a runner and a hitter, and you just scoff and make snarky "well chicks dig the long ball derp" quips while ignoring that fact that he has outperformed him quite a bit OPS and OPS+ wise, and as far as base path value goes? It's not even close.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into fact that Span has some health questions moving forward.

Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it?

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 02:21 PM
Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:24 PM
Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".
Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 02:25 PM
Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".
Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Now you're being intentionally dense just to confuse the argument. I already stated how I felt OBP should be weighted compared to SLG.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:26 PM
The Puck: To simplify this all a bit again:

If Span was a free agent this off-season, would some team give him a 5 year/ 75 mil contract?

I will hang up and listen at this point since you obviously aren't going to change your mind on this topic.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:27 PM
Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

Not to mention, even injured, Hardy had the best UZR/150 of any shortstop in his one year with us. Defense.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:28 PM
Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".
Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Now you're being intentionally dense just to confuse the argument. I already stated how I felt OBP should be weighted compared to SLG.
You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base"

JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:31 PM
Funny I could have sworn you were one of the people saying the Twins should have kept Hardy around, while other people were crying about his .310 OBP.

So now its all about OBP? Did Upton have his warts this year? no doubt. But if you look at everything all together with salary taken out of the picture its Upton in a landslide. If you take injuries out of the picture it's still Upton, even with your weighted OPS average Upton outperformed Span over the past 3 years.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys.

But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".
Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy?

Well, hmm, him being one of the very best shortstops in baseball has to be factored in. Overall player ability. Not any one stat.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 02:32 PM
You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base"

JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?

Seriously. Stop being a prick. You know exactly what I meant by that statement.

But yeah, there's a chance I'd take 2012 Carroll over 2012 Hardy. JJ was pretty bad this year.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:35 PM
I'm done with this debate. It's been, well, interesting

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:39 PM
You were the one who just said "But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base"

JJ Hardy had a .286 OBP last year. Does that mean you will always take Carroll over him?

Seriously. Stop being a prick. You know exactly what I meant by that statement.

But yeah, there's a chance I'd take 2012 Carroll over 2012 Hardy. JJ was pretty bad this year.

Actually I thought I knew what you meant, but now you are saying you would rather have had Carroll last year then Hardy so now I am confused.
Ben Revere had a .333 OBP last year does this mean you would take him over Upton as well moving forward? (honest question)

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:40 PM
I'm done with this debate. It's been, well, interesting

I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question:

If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract?

If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 02:44 PM
Actually I thought I knew what you meant, but now you are saying you would rather have had Carroll last year then Hardy so now I am confused.
Ben Revere had a .333 OBP last year does this mean you would take him over Upton as well moving forward? (honest question)

If I knew Carroll would post the numbers he did and Hardy the numbers he did in 2012, there's a small chance I'd take Carroll. A 60 point OBP advantage is a lot but it still might be countered by Hardy's defense. I'd have to look into the numbers more closely. But speaking purely from an offensive perspective, Carroll had the better season by a considerable margin (as weird as that sounds to say).

As for Revere vs. Upton, no way. Upton all day. Revere may have posted a .035 higher OBP but Upton slugged a full .100 higher.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:50 PM
I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question:

If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract?

If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?

Just like I can't help but noticed you avoided this whole post completely :

'Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it? '

Why did you avoid that post, exactly?

I also noticed you said you were done with it as well since my mind wasn't gonna be changed...

To answer yours, I don't believe Upton deserved anywhere near that contract...and no I don't think Span would get it. But I do believe HRs are overvalued in ALMOST all contracts and defense basically ignored in today's game when contracts are given out. In other words, because a team decided to seriously overpay a guy who doesn't deserve it, doesn't mean that it's a true measure of his value.

jun
12-03-2012, 02:53 PM
i don't trust in terry at all. why should anyone? ryan stated in september to the season ticket holders one thing, and then did another. trustworthy? span has first round pedigree, too, and hey, so does levi machael. i'll be holding my breath on that one. on top of it all...... it was rizzo that had coveted span for a long time. terry ryan folded and got taken, and left cards on the table. it turns out that regardless of the contract, as reported today at mlb trade rumors, that rizzo and the nats wanted span more than any of the centerfielders available. ryan made the weak play. there was a takeaway not played, and an additional player to be had that ryan was not player enough to get. washington DID get a proven player ready to help immediately and for several years, and the twins got a hope.

Obviously you think he should be able to work miracles. Give TR some time and you will see once again why he is a winner and he has this organization on the right path.


I would say exactly the opposite!

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 02:55 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 02:57 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

twinsnorth49
12-03-2012, 03:00 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/sport/sport25.gif

You guys had enough yet?

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 03:02 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

I already responded to the rest of your questions you asked for the most part, I don't feel like dancing in circles any more with you. You said Span is more valuable (taking money off the table) then Upton, myself and every GM in the league disagree with you.

Also, I didn't say you knew nothing about baseball, I said that if you only use one years worth of defensive metric data you were either:
A. Being Disingenuous
B. Knew nothing about baseball.

It was an either/or scenario.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 03:04 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

I already responded to the rest of your questions you asked for the most part, I don't feel like dancing in circles any more with you. You said Span is more valuable (taking money off the table) then Upton, myself and every GM in the league disagree with you.

Also, I didn't say you knew nothing about baseball, I said that if you only use one years worth of defensive metric data you were either:
A. Being Disingenuous
B. Knew nothing about baseball.

It was an either/or scenario.

You responded to:

'Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it? '

Really? You responded to me correcting your false statement about Span having a negative DRS over the last three years and me showing your UZR stats for the last three years didn't help your cause for Upton?

And since I've cleared showed I'm not being disingenuous, that only leaves you to believe I don't know baseball. Basically it comes down to you saying if I don't have your opinion, I don't know baseball.

But okay, if you say so

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 03:06 PM
I'm done with this...unless you wanna keep going round and round Dave...

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 03:10 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/sport/sport25.gif

You guys had enough yet?

That image is accurate, as I am certainly right handed.

Twins Twerp
12-03-2012, 03:12 PM
At! least you guys aren't catty:shoot: :talk028::talk028::talk028::talk028::s-chainsaw:

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 03:14 PM
and no I don't think Span would get it.

ok thanks!

That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/sport/sport25.gif

You guys had enough yet?

That image is accurate, as I am certainly right handed.

Ah, you're cute...delusional, but cute

Fire Dan Gladden
12-03-2012, 03:27 PM
I'm done with this debate. It's been, well, interesting

I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question:

If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract?

If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?

Not to get into the middle of this mess, but the Span value discussion intrigues me. Lets look at a comparison:



G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+


Player A
136
488
69
120
26
0
29
98
4
1
56
150
.246
.332
.477
.810
121


Player B
146
573
79
141
29
3
28
78
31
6
45
169
.246
.298
.454
.752
109



Offensively they are not tremendously different. Player B steals more bases. Player A provides more power. Both are FA, Player A is 32 and a corner OF, Player B is 27 and a CF.

Player A is Josh Willingham - 2011
Player B is BJ Upton - 2012

While there will be some value difference based on age and position, is there really a 3/$21 vs 5/$75 difference? I don't think so.

Name recognition can be a huge factor. Nobody comes to see unassuming Denard Span, everybody wants to see BJ Upton, who has been hyped and effectively overrated from the moment he was brought up.

I don't think Denard Span would get a 5/$75 deal as a FA, but I also don't think Upton's value is that much higher than Span's either. Just my 2 cents.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 03:32 PM
Not to get into the middle of this mess, but the Span value discussion intrigues me. Lets look at a comparison:



G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+


Player A
136
488
69
120
26
0
29
98
4
1
56
150
.246
.332
.477
.810
121


Player B
146
573
79
141
29
3
28
78
31
6
45
169
.246
.298
.454
.752
109



Offensively they are not tremendously different. Player B steals more bases. Player A provides more power. Both are FA, Player A is 32 and a corner OF, Player B is 27 and a CF.

Player A is Josh Willingham - 2011
Player B is BJ Upton - 2012

While there will be some value difference based on age and position, is there really a 3/$21 vs 5/$75 difference? I don't think so.

Name recognition can be a huge factor. Nobody comes to see unassuming Denard Span, everybody wants to see BJ Upton, who has been hyped and effectively overrated from the moment he was brought up.

I don't think Denard Span would get a 5/$75 deal as a FA, but I also don't think Upton's value is that much higher than Span's either. Just my 2 cents.

Great comparison. Smart people go after the Denard Spans and Josh Willinghams of the world. They're going to bring a lot of value to the team for not a lot of cash. Not-as-smart people do things like give BJ Upton $75m. Not that I think the Braves are dumb; they're one of the smarter organizations in baseball... but that doesn't mean they can't do dumb things.

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 03:33 PM
Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

70charger
12-03-2012, 03:37 PM
Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

I am shocked, shocked! to find that gambling is going on in here.

Your winnings, sir.

twinsnorth49
12-03-2012, 03:38 PM
Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

Agreed, I'm completely disillusioned, usually things are much more impartial around here.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 03:47 PM
Not to get into the middle of this mess, but the Span value discussion intrigues me. Lets look at a comparison:



G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+


Player A
136
488
69
120
26
0
29
98
4
1
56
150
.246
.332
.477
.810
121


Player B
146
573
79
141
29
3
28
78
31
6
45
169
.246
.298
.454
.752
109



Offensively they are not tremendously different. Player B steals more bases. Player A provides more power. Both are FA, Player A is 32 and a corner OF, Player B is 27 and a CF.

Player A is Josh Willingham - 2011
Player B is BJ Upton - 2012

While there will be some value difference based on age and position, is there really a 3/$21 vs 5/$75 difference? I don't think so.

Name recognition can be a huge factor. Nobody comes to see unassuming Denard Span, everybody wants to see BJ Upton, who has been hyped and effectively overrated from the moment he was brought up.

I don't think Denard Span would get a 5/$75 deal as a FA, but I also don't think Upton's value is that much higher than Span's either. Just my 2 cents.

Great comparison. Smart people go after the Denard Spans and Josh Willinghams of the world. They're going to bring a lot of value to the team for not a lot of cash. Not-as-smart people do things like give BJ Upton $75m. Not that I think the Braves are dumb; they're one of the smarter organizations in baseball... but that doesn't mean they can't do dumb things.

I agree with everything you said, as I mentioned, for the money Span is the man to go with on this.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 03:49 PM
Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

I'd still like to hear how BJ Upton is a better player then Denard Span, especially moving forward. Not a better value, not a better person, a better player. Show me evidence to the contrary and I will tend to agree, I have been posting with a number of these guys for 5+ years, they know I will change my opinion on a player all the time when presented with new evidence/ideas.

lee_the_twins_fan
12-03-2012, 04:02 PM
Comparing Josh Willingham's and B.J. Upton's offensive statistics is fine. What about their defensive stats? What else do they bring to the table (experience, knowledge of certain division's pitchers, etc.)

I contend that Josh Willingham is more valuable to the Twins than he would be to nearly any other team. He hits his homers along the left field line: Willingham is made for Target Field.

Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are also great hitters – but they are lefties. But their production dropped when they began playing at Target Field – in part because of injuries, but in part because of the field itself. Every field has its quirks, I think the M&M boys are coming back with a huge season in 2013, because their injuries are hopefully behind them, and they're going to take even more advantage of Target Field – not in the same way Willingham does, but they will tweak their game some more yet to take advantage of TF.

I know, I know, I'm dreaming. But I see TF becoming less and less a pitcher's field and more of a balanced field between pitchers and hitters.

I hope Willingham, Morneau and Mauer will all be around to help the Twins in 2013.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 04:05 PM
Comparing Josh Willingham's and B.J. Upton's offensive statistics is fine. What about their defensive stats? What else do they bring to the table (experience, knowledge of certain division's pitchers, etc.)

I contend that Josh Willingham is more valuable to the Twins than he would be to nearly any other team. He hits his homers along the left field line: Willingham is made for target Field.

Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are also great hitters – and they are lefties. But their production dropped when they began playing at Target Field – in part because of injuries, but in part because of the field itself. Every field has its quirks, I think the M&M boys are coming back with a huge season in 2013, because their injuries are hopefully behind them, and they're going to take even more advantage of Target Field – not in the same way Willingham does, but they will tweak their game some more yet to take advantage of TF.

I know, I know, I'm dreaming. But I see TF becoming less and less a pitcher's field and more of a balanced field between pitchers and hitters.

I hope Willingham, Moorneau and Mauer will all be around to help the Twins in 2013.

I agree...but I'd like to point out that according to ESPN park factor information, TF was a hitter's park last year. Ranked 10th. I'd also like to point out that in 2010, Morneau was having an MVP type season before the concussion and had an OPS over .900 at TF.

lee_the_twins_fan
12-03-2012, 04:19 PM
Yes, I did not realize that... Interesting it was 10th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 14th in home runs in 2012. In 2011, however, it was 21st in runs scored, 20th in home runs and tied for 11th in hits.

I suspect Minnesota's bad pitching last year contributed to the increased run production on ESPN's chart.

It appears the field has essentially leveled out between pitching and hitting.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 04:20 PM
Yes, I did not realize that... Interesting it was 10th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 14th in home runs in 2012. In 2011, however, it was 21st in runs scored, 20th in home runs and tied for 11th in hits.

I suspect Minnesota's bad pitching last year contributed to the increased run production on ESPN's chart.

It appears the field has essentially leveled out between pitching an hitting.

Twins pitching was pretty bad in 2011 too :-) I think we're seeing eye to eye though.

gunnarthor
12-03-2012, 04:20 PM
Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

I'd still like to hear how BJ Upton is a better player then Denard Span, especially moving forward. Not a better value, not a better person, a better player..

Span had a higher WAR last year than Upton. Span had the higher wOBA last year. One could quite rationally look at downward trend lines in Upton's defensive value over the last few years to suggest the 1000 or so games are starting to add up on his body. But that's never been the point. There are arguments either way. But your treatment of Brock and Puck was purposefully dense, to be kind.

lee_the_twins_fan
12-03-2012, 04:20 PM
And Willingham's contribution added to the field's home run numbers.

lee_the_twins_fan
12-03-2012, 04:22 PM
Yes, I did not realize that... Interesting it was 10th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 14th in home runs in 2012. In 2011, however, it was 21st in runs scored, 20th in home runs and tied for 11th in hits.

I suspect Minnesota's bad pitching last year contributed to the increased run production on ESPN's chart.

It appears the field has essentially leveled out between pitching an hitting.

Twins pitching was pretty bad in 2011 too :-) I think we're seeing eye to eye though.

True.

diehardtwinsfan
12-03-2012, 06:33 PM
This is like being back at BYTO except that there's more people to fuel the madness.

Not to get back on topic, but Terry Ryan never seemed to be the type that liked being forced into a trade. Some have suggested that this was part of the reason he resigned so that he didn't have to deal with the Santana mess... and the Hunter mess... I'm with Nick on this one. Terry hasn't lost out often when he let the market come to him. Bill Smith on the other hand, was just the opposite. Now I just hope that he will actually make some good FA moves.

Wookiee of the Year
12-03-2012, 06:33 PM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 06:44 PM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

deanlambrecht
12-03-2012, 07:15 PM
Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

Hope this hasn't been said yet but I'm rushing. Sorry.

Patience fits both sides of the coin in this story. Rizzo was likely reluctant to take Span mid way through the year when he was still a bit more of an unknown vis a vis his concussion recovery status. Denard made it through, as we know, with flying colors, so that question mark for Rizzo goes away.

If that's the case, that's good work by both GMs.

Kwak
12-03-2012, 08:31 PM
Back to the thread--Trust in Terry. The Strib published a story on the Twins today and it appears that Ryan is backing off from his statement of "three new starting pitchers".
"I don't think you can put a number on it." "We will try to get as many as we can." And we're not going to get someone just for the sake of adding someone." "It has to be someone who likes our situation...".

I infer that Ryan realizes that adding three new SPs was a tall order and likely based on certain assumptions--like cost and available dollars in the budget. I read where the budget is probably $90MM rather than the $100MM figure bandied about (by others). "...like our situation..." likely excludes someone who just wants a 1-year "make-good" contract so he can get a big raise for 2014--hence "Goodbye" to Baker--who probably was the most likely free agent who would sign with the Twins for 2013. I perceived that his earlier statements implied that the talent level in 2013 would be significantly improved--no, not to the level of playoff contender--but to the level of a .500 ballclub. I guess I don't know if my definition of "Trust" is the same as Nick Nelson, but from now on I will take any statement Ryan makes with a grain of salt--not because of dishonesty--but because he is speaking for others and the assumptions made for his statements can change significantly due to the whims of others.

Wookiee of the Year
12-03-2012, 11:36 PM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.
You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 11:42 PM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.
You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4

jokin
12-03-2012, 11:50 PM
Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

Hope this hasn't been said yet but I'm rushing. Sorry.

Patience fits both sides of the coin in this story. Rizzo was likely reluctant to take Span mid way through the year when he was still a bit more of an unknown vis a vis his concussion recovery status. Denard made it through, as we know, with flying colors, so that question mark for Rizzo goes away.

If that's the case, that's good work by both GMs.

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 11:52 PM
It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

jokin
12-03-2012, 11:55 PM
Back to the thread--Trust in Terry. The Strib published a story on the Twins today and it appears that Ryan is backing off from his statement of "three new starting pitchers".
"I don't think you can put a number on it." "We will try to get as many as we can." And we're not going to get someone just for the sake of adding someone." "It has to be someone who likes our situation...".

I infer that Ryan realizes that adding three new SPs was a tall order and likely based on certain assumptions--like cost and available dollars in the budget. I read where the budget is probably $90MM rather than the $100MM figure bandied about (by others). "...like our situation..." likely excludes someone who just wants a 1-year "make-good" contract so he can get a big raise for 2014--hence "Goodbye" to Baker--who probably was the most likely free agent who would sign with the Twins for 2013. I perceived that his earlier statements implied that the talent level in 2013 would be significantly improved--no, not to the level of playoff contender--but to the level of a .500 ballclub. I guess I don't know if my definition of "Trust" is the same as Nick Nelson, but from now on I will take any statement Ryan makes with a grain of salt--not because of dishonesty--but because he is speaking for others and the assumptions made for his statements can change significantly due to the whims of others.

The last quote belies what certain posters have proffered on TD, ie "that 20 out of 21 times, a player always takes the most money on the table".

My guess is that TR's early contacts with agents around even the second-tier SPs have told Ryan that their clients would have to absolutely blown away in an offer to even consider the Twins- and there ain't no way that Ryan is going to ridiculously overbid.

I agree with your last paragraph completely. See AsburyJohn's quote for your last comment- Being GM is a very very tough job. Shooting for .500 will be a tall, tall order............ talking out of the side your mouth to agents, the fans and the media about "contending" has to represent a Migraine-inducing level of Cognitive Dissonance.

jokin
12-03-2012, 11:57 PM
It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

jokin
12-04-2012, 12:01 AM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.
You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4

2015 is the most realistic DOA. Would love to see some combination of Johnson and Verlander from the new Staff Ace. To go with Gibson, Diamond, Wimmers and Berrios on the fast-track in June of that year to replace the latest Jason Marquis flop. We can still hope, can't we?

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 12:02 AM
It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 12:06 AM
Anyway, I gotta crash...I enjoyed the conversation. Later

jokin
12-04-2012, 12:14 AM
It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

jokin
12-04-2012, 12:15 AM
Anyway, I gotta crash...I enjoyed the conversation. Later

Thanks, same goes.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 12:18 AM
It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

Since you're still here...one more thing...concerning range. Span was rated as having the third best range of any CF and the 4th most plays made outside of zone. Again, the amount of plays might have had to do with the chances, but the range (RZR) was still top notch. Now I'm really out, I swear :-)

jokin
12-04-2012, 12:29 AM
It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

Since you're still here...one more thing...concerning range. Span was rated as having the third best range of any CF and the 4th most plays made outside of zone. Again, the amount of plays might have had to do with the chances, but the range (RZR) was still top notch. Now I'm really out, I swear :-)

To me that's one of those eyeball-test-failure stats. Span to this naked eye anyway (perhaps it was my built-in assumption of his concussion-wariness), appeared to be much more conservative in his approach this year, back a step deeper and a little less relentless attacking the wall and he botched his fair share of sure outs into plays ruled as hits or errors, I also perceived some deferral to the RF at times, perhaps that's why both their scores might be a little artificially higher?

mako83
12-04-2012, 12:36 AM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

If we wait two years and he is still a number four that means we have a better rotation right now De Vries looks like our number four

70charger
12-04-2012, 12:40 AM
Good find with those quotes.

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.
You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4

2015 is the most realistic DOA. Would love to see some combination of Johnson and Verlander from the new Staff Ace. To go with Gibson, Diamond, Wimmers and Berrios on the fast-track in June of that year to replace the latest Jason Marquis flop. We can still hope, can't we?

DOA? Dead on arrival? God I hope not.

Kidding aside, I think we might look for him in 2014. Maybe optimistic, but if he progresses as he should, it could happen.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 06:29 AM
To me that's one of those eyeball-test-failure stats. Span to this naked eye anyway (perhaps it was my built-in assumption of his concussion-wariness), appeared to be much more conservative in his approach this year, back a step deeper and a little less relentless attacking the wall and he botched his fair share of sure outs into plays ruled as hits or errors, I also perceived some deferral to the RF at times, perhaps that's why both their scores might be a little artificially higher?

I think it's cause he reads the ball of the bats so well, he's not making the super flashy play (which a lot of times are because you misjudged the ball to begin with). The guy has the range, reads the ball well, takes the best routes and has the smarts. Additionally, if he was deferring to RF, his RZR would be lower, not the 3rd best. My eye test seems to match what the defensive metrics say and the Fielding Bible award voters said...that he was the third best defensive CF in baseball this last season. But he's not flashy, that's for sure. He doesn't need to be.

I'm gonna miss him playing for us.

mike wants wins
12-04-2012, 08:01 AM
I am shocked that Ryan might be backing off spending money. Never would have predicted that....still hoping.