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View Full Version : Vegas Speaks: Twins Over/Under is 73 wins



John Bonnes
03-11-2012, 03:38 PM
You can find the link here (http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=baseball).

Vegas is setting the over/under for Twins wins at 73 this year, which is the least number of any AL Central team. I gotta say, this seems really low to me, though I suppose one could argue that if they sell at the trade deadline, they could suffer an August and September similar to last season. Still, I think the over is a lot more likely.

Jim Crikket
03-11-2012, 04:02 PM
I guess it's about what I would have expected when you consider that oddsmakers don't base these things on what they necessarily believe will happen, but what they believe is likely to result in half of the bets being placed on both sides. You don't have to read many national media experts to figure out that virtually nobody expects the Twins to have even a decent year. That being the case, most people across the country inclined to bet on this kind of thing are also going to discount the Twins chances.

I'll be surprised and very disappointed if the Twins don't win well above 73 games.

Seth Stohs
03-11-2012, 04:03 PM
When talking to people all offseason and especially since spring training, I've put the over/under at 79. So I would take the over, thought the Twins may be one of the more difficult teams to predict wins for in 2012 because they have so many variables.

denarded
03-11-2012, 04:33 PM
I agree with Cricket about being dissapointed with 73 wins, but Vegas is not just throwing numbers up like fans do. Our pitching is on the verge of being shambolic and we are slides and falls away from losing 1/3 of our position players. Most fans don't cringe when a fielder runs or slides hard. We do with m+m+span

Thrylos
03-11-2012, 05:09 PM
Vegas is not just throwing numbers up like fans do.

Sure they are. Here is what they had for the Twins over/under before each season the last 4 seasons, with actual Twins' record in parenthesis and diff afterwards:
2011: 85 (63) -20
2010: 82 (94) +12
2009: 83.5 (87) +3.5
2008: 73.5 (88) +14.5

Other than 2009 they were way way off

Jim Crikket
03-11-2012, 06:50 PM
Sure they are. Here is what they had for the Twins over/under before each season the last 4 seasons, with actual Twins' record in parenthesis and diff afterwards:
2011: 85 (63) -20
2010: 82 (94) +12
2009: 83.5 (87) +3.5
2008: 73.5 (88) +14.5

Other than 2009 they were way way off

My point is that Vegas doesn't give a damn if they are "way off". They set the line where they're almost certain they'll get half of bettors to bet the over and half the under, because they make money on the vig. They have absolutely no interest in being "right" about anything except about setting the line where they evenly split the bets. And because a lot of gamblers are complete idiots, lines like this are based heavily on the prior season's results.

John Bonnes
03-11-2012, 08:43 PM
So we're betting the house then? You're saying this is my big chance? That money in my kids' college 529 plan is just SITTING there, getting NOTHING....

davidjcampbell
03-11-2012, 09:08 PM
So we're betting the house then? You're saying this is my big chance? That money in my kids' college 529 plan is just SITTING there, getting NOTHING....

Doooooooo ittttttttt!!!!!!!!

Jim Crikket
03-11-2012, 09:10 PM
So we're betting the house then? You're saying this is my big chance? That money in my kids' college 529 plan is just SITTING there, getting NOTHING....

Hell no. Even if you win, you only double your money. You need to wait and see if you can get something like 50-1 odds on the Twins winning it all or something... THAT'S when you put the kids' college money on the line.

James
03-13-2012, 09:40 AM
Meh. I put $20 down on the Twins to win it all in 2010 and they had 10:1 odds. That was before the season started. I don't think Vegas gave 50:1 odds for any team. Then again, I didn't look at the odds for any other team.

I say bet the college fund on the over under. It's the gambling version of drafting a college "pitch to contact" pitcher. Nothing flashy, but it will probably work for a while.

whydidnt
03-13-2012, 11:21 AM
My point is that Vegas doesn't give a damn if they are "way off". They set the line where they're almost certain they'll get half of bettors to bet the over and half the under, because they make money on the vig. They have absolutely no interest in being "right" about anything except about setting the line where they evenly split the bets. And because a lot of gamblers are complete idiots, lines like this are based heavily on the prior season's results.
Actually on Prop or Moneyline bets such as this that isn't necessarily true. It MAY be true, if you see something like Twins over 73.5 -110, Twins under 73.5 -110. But you also will see something like this Twins over 73.5 -110, Twins under 73.5 +100. NOTE: I haven't actually looked to see what the moneyline is for the Twins this year, just know that the traditional 10% vig we are used to from football pointspreads does not apply to props or moneyline bets. Casinos often win and lose big on these sorts of bets because they don't have enough money coming in on both sides of the bet to ensure equal $s on both sides. On a bet such a this the VIG may be built in, but doesn't always exist.