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View Full Version : Is this the offseason to extend Revere?



Willihammer
11-30-2012, 01:29 PM
After Span's first two seasons, he had for his career a .305 average and an OBP of .391. And in March 2010, the Twins offered him a 5 year, 16.5m contract with a team option for 2015 valued at $9m. As we all know by now, this has proven to be a very team friendly deal, despite the fact that Denard never again produced at his 2008-2009 levels.

So, after 2 seasons watching Revere, Is it time for the Twins to offer him a similar extension?

By comparison, Revere is hitting for a .278 average and getting on base at a .319 clip. His current career BABIP of .308 is a full .040 points lower than Span's was after 2 seasons. Further, Revere is every bit as able to put balls in play, avoid striking out, and leg out infield hits. Revere was 2nd in baseball in infield hits with 58 over the past two seasons (behind Ichiro) and 9th in bunt hits, despite the low BABIP - facts that tells me that Revere's batting average is more likely to go up then down, as his BABIP settles in somewhere in the neighborhood of .320-.330. It also is further evidence that Revere's speed is even more elite than Span's.

Where Revere excels in speed however, he has (so far) lacked the ability to draw walks, and this is again favorable for the Twins from a bargaining standpoint. He would be better suited to the 9 hole, and a 9 hitter's salaray. Yet, Revere's 5.2% walk rate can hardly dip any lower going forward. It is already the 16th lowest walk rate for the last two years.

So, given that Revere is more likely to outperform his career averages going forward, then to underperform them (as Span did), there is doubly a reason to extend him this offseason.

Thoughts?

mike wants wins
11-30-2012, 01:36 PM
Not for me. I have my doubts about his ability to walk enough.

J-Dog Dungan
11-30-2012, 01:41 PM
I think with the departure of Span, they will keep him in CF until Willingham leaves, then shift him to LF where his arm plays better, even if he is better statistically in CF, because they have other players who are just as fast as him who have the arm to play in CF and RF coming up through the minors.

Brad Swanson
11-30-2012, 01:44 PM
I'm not sure there is much need to extend Revere. His stats aren't the type of stats that earn large arbitration figures. Probably best to go year to year with him, especially with all the outfield prospects in the system.

Riverbrian
11-30-2012, 01:48 PM
I like Ben and I wouldn't extend him at this time.

Sssuperdave
11-30-2012, 01:57 PM
Around the same time they did that 5 yr deal with Span they did a simialr deal with Nick Blackburn. One turned into a team-friendly contract, the other - well, you know how that turned out. Locking in the salary for players like this is kind of a high risk/medium reward scenario that I don't think is a particulary good gamble, despite how well it worked with Span. Although the potential reward gets better if you can lock in a couple years of free agency.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 01:59 PM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

Rosterman
11-30-2012, 02:02 PM
I would wait to see how 2013 goes and further watch the development of others in the minors -- Arcia, Benson, Hicks, Burton, Kepler et al. Revere, if he does prove modestly successful, will end up being a rotating hanger-on, like Juan Pierre. He replaces Span, but doesn't. It's nice to have the speed, but only if you balance it with a stringer 2B/SS and keep more power of OBP in the corner outfields. Right now, the Twins are juggling 4 positions that lack any kind of hitting, especially power, and only one of them showed basepath advancement (the only good thing...at times...for keeping Alexi).

Willihammer
11-30-2012, 02:10 PM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

mike wants wins
11-30-2012, 02:17 PM
Arcia, Hicks, whomever else.....

Boom Boom
11-30-2012, 02:20 PM
No reason to extend Revere with Hicks so close. I don't predict any kind of offensive breakthrough from Ben this year anyway.

Twins Twerp
11-30-2012, 02:23 PM
I say yes actually. If we can sign him to an even better deal than Span we do it. We know what we are getting from this guy. His arm is bad and he has no power. He is a three tool guy, but those three tools are very good. He is a very good fielder, a great basestealer, and will hit for average. I think those three things outweight the fact that he doesn't take walks, doesn't throw well, and has no power (he makes Nick Punto look like Mark McGuire). His value will go up the next few season's as he does it consistantly. Next summer, we flip him and his team friendly deal for another prospect or two. Will he bring back a Meyers type pitching prospect, doubtful, but he may bring back something of use and a B- to C prospect.

I am two steps down the road on this one. I think the Twins hold onto Willingham and move Reverre once Hicks and Arcia are up. I am hopeful that Rosario and Sano can stay in the infield, but my instincts tell me that one or both will end up in the OF. That leaves us with even more outfielders than we can handle around 2015ish. Buxton will be ready by 2016 more than likely. Our abundance of OF'ers needs to be turned into a balanced farm system with some power arms. The Span trade was just the beginning, if we work this the right way, we should be able to turn our of'ers into Starting Pitchers, which wins championships.

nicksaviking
11-30-2012, 02:29 PM
I think it might be a decent idea. If his contract is similar to Span's, it still shouldn't be an issue if they want to move him. Revere's numbers in his first couple of seasons look farily similar to Michael Bourn's. Minor league numbers were pretty projectable for Bourn and so far, Revere's minor league numbers are also translating. Bourn flashed some power (for the first time and in a contract year) and is going to walk more but he'll also strike out 3x more than Revere.

Personally, I think Bourn is overrated. A decent .340-.350 OBP and leading the league in steals doesn't automatically make me think he's an all-world free agent, but it seems a bunch of GM's and baseball wonks seem to disagree seeing as he's one of the top free agents this year and was one of the hottest trade targets last year. If there's a chance Revere could get the same value, I'd lock him up.

While I'd be OK with the extension gamble, I think the Twins could wait one more year. Since Revere has no power, I don't think his arb years will be too expensive.

Bark's Lounge
11-30-2012, 02:47 PM
I like Ben. He brings a lot of energy to the Twins Lineup and clubhouse - sometimes that can be contagious, and that's a good thing. Fortunately or unfortunately, I do not believe Revere will be starting in the outfield after the 2013 season. Hicks is his superior in talent and Arcia is knocking on the door with his potent bat. I think the world of the guy, but he is merely a stop gap. This is my prediction. No extension.

Willihammer
11-30-2012, 03:29 PM
Arcia, Hicks, whomever else.....

Why not a 3rd outfielder?

Rosterman
11-30-2012, 03:33 PM
Joe Benson. He still is out there.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 03:34 PM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

ThePuck
11-30-2012, 03:37 PM
After Span's first two seasons, he had for his career a .305 average and an OBP of .391. And in March 2010, the Twins offered him a 5 year, 16.5m contract with a team option for 2015 valued at $9m. As we all know by now, this has proven to be a very team friendly deal, despite the fact that Denard never again produced at his 2008-2009 levels.

So, after 2 seasons watching Revere, Is it time for the Twins to offer him a similar extension?

By comparison, Revere is hitting for a .278 average and getting on base at a .319 clip. His current career BABIP of .308 is a full .040 points lower than Span's was after 2 seasons. Further, Revere is every bit as able to put balls in play, avoid striking out, and leg out infield hits. Revere was 2nd in baseball in infield hits with 58 over the past two seasons (behind Ichiro) and 9th in bunt hits, despite the low BABIP - facts that tells me that Revere's batting average is more likely to go up then down, as his BABIP settles in somewhere in the neighborhood of .320-.330. It also is further evidence that Revere's speed is even more elite than Span's.

Where Revere excels in speed however, he has (so far) lacked the ability to draw walks, and this is again favorable for the Twins from a bargaining standpoint. He would be better suited to the 9 hole, and a 9 hitter's salaray. Yet, Revere's 5.2% walk rate can hardly dip any lower going forward. It is already the 16th lowest walk rate for the last two years.

So, given that Revere is more likely to outperform his career averages going forward, then to underperform them (as Span did), there is doubly a reason to extend him this offseason.

Thoughts?

I don't think he's done enough to deserve it myself...

joeboo_22
11-30-2012, 03:43 PM
Does anyone have any numbers what Span would have made without the contract? just through arbitration and so on? It would have been more, but not that terribly much more. On the other hand if his batting average drops to the .260 ish range, you have an over paid, CF with no power whatsoever, and 5 guys in the organization that are better then him. With the type of player Revere is, its not worth the risk, I really didn't think it was worth the risk with Span.

Kwak
11-30-2012, 03:50 PM
NO! Revere is a placeholder. There won't be a bidding war for his services--ever. Old saying: "as time passes the little guys slow down, but the big guys don't get smaller." :shoot:

Winston Smith
11-30-2012, 03:53 PM
NO a lot bigger things to work on!

Willihammer
11-30-2012, 04:17 PM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

Where does Joe Benson's or Aaron Hick's minor league track records compare so favorably to Ben Revere's minor league track record. Why would you expect them to be better than Revere at the Major league level? Then you have Buxton and Kepler who are still in A Ball. How is floating Revere something like 5/14 with a 6th option so much riskier than penciling in Buxton and Kepler into your 2015 and 2016 outfield?

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 04:33 PM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

Where does Joe Benson's or Aaron Hick's minor league track records compare so favorably to Ben Revere's minor league track record. Why would you expect them to be better than Revere at the Major league level? Then you have Buxton and Kepler who are still in A Ball. How is floating Revere something like 5/14 with a 6th option so much riskier than penciling in Buxton and Kepler into your 2015 and 2016 outfield?

As a 22 year old, Aaron Hicks OPSed .844 in New Britain.

As a 22 year old, Ben Revere OPSed .734 in New Britain.

It's safe to say that Hicks is the better player. He's fast, he's rangy, he can out-throw me, he can draw a walk, and he actually hits for a little bit of power. Outside of raw speed, Revere doesn't do anything better than Hicks (and the speed bit is up for debate).

As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.

Willihammer
11-30-2012, 11:52 PM
OK well if Hicks and Benson are both better players than Revere by 2015 and one of them displaces Revere in CF then there would still be a 3rd outfield spot to fill, and Revere could easily be the best guy to fill it.

But, put aside for the moment any projections about our farmhands.

We have just witnessed how - even when you buy high on young players, like we did with Span - because the Twins did it early enough and for cheap enough, Span's "team value" still went up even though he regressed. I mean, Certainly Meyer is a better return than anything Span would have fetched as a mid-summer rental earning the market rate and going year to year. Can we agree on that?

Except, with Revere, to extend him now, the Twins would probably be buying low, and Revere would, if anything, progress over the course of the contract.

Consider the possibility that Revere's BABIP spikes to .340 next year. Span had two such seasons before he extended (.339 and .353 to be exact). Suddenly Revere puts up a .306/.348.350 line (along with more steal opportunities, thus more steals, and the usual great defense, great baserunning, etc). What does that do for the arbiter? It would not take long to start seeing the millions slipping away.

But, if after 2014 or 2015 everything on the farm has worked out perfectly - meaning 4 of Hicks, Arcia, et al are MLB players than Revere - and there is a buyer out there who likes Revere - now that buyer's almost certainly going to give you a bigger haul for him. Where is the downside?

Willihammer
12-01-2012, 12:01 AM
As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.
Getting back to the projecting part, surplus of what? Surplus of minor league talent? You trade away your MLB players when they gain value in order to make room for wildcards who haven't don't a thing at the MLB level? I guess I would rather see the farm guys who do end up sticking it in the MLB, stay on my team.

jokin
12-01-2012, 12:21 AM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

Where does Joe Benson's or Aaron Hick's minor league track records compare so favorably to Ben Revere's minor league track record. Why would you expect them to be better than Revere at the Major league level? Then you have Buxton and Kepler who are still in A Ball. How is floating Revere something like 5/14 with a 6th option so much riskier than penciling in Buxton and Kepler into your 2015 and 2016 outfield?

As a 22 year old, Aaron Hicks OPSed .844 in New Britain.

As a 22 year old, Ben Revere OPSed .734 in New Britain.

It's safe to say that Hicks is the better player. He's fast, he's rangy, he can out-throw me, he can draw a walk, and he actually hits for a little bit of power. Outside of raw speed, Revere doesn't do anything better than Hicks (and the speed bit is up for debate).

As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.

Brock, how do we know he can outthrow you? Did you and Hicks have a non-televised throwing contest?

It can be argued that Span's value was heightened to some extent by his team-friendly contract and his established Major League bona fides. Revere falling into the 4th OFer role at a cheap long-term deal wouldn't be all that bad at some point down the line, with the possible annual ability of dangling him for a position of weakness.

Top Gun
12-01-2012, 02:10 AM
Hell no, no rush.

TheLeviathan
12-01-2012, 07:39 AM
OK well if Hicks and Benson are both better players than Revere by 2015 and one of them displaces Revere in CF then there would still be a 3rd outfield spot to fill, and Revere could easily be the best guy to fill it.

Where is the downside?

If there is an empty outfield spot it will be a corner outfield spot and part of the emphasis moving Span was that Revere, if he's going to play, belongs in CF. His skill set loses considerable value when you have to have him play there. With Hicks looking like a really good bet for our future CF, that's not something to plan on.

The downside is that if you extend Revere there is a good chance he starts to underperform his contract. What Revere does well is very predicated on skills that are hard to project long-term: high BABIP, high contact rate, speed. If any of those things slip he's not a very good player. Span, on the other hand, hits the ball with far more authority and worked counts/walked. Those skills aren't as tenuous as Revere's and thus made him a better long-term investment.

Given how badly Revere regressed towards the end of the season it's better to shop him with team control. That has value as well and then the team you decide to move him to has more control over their long term obligations to him.

diehardtwinsfan
12-01-2012, 07:40 AM
Simply put, no. Extending Revere is not like extending Longoria or something like that. Revere is a very flawed player who I still think s a very good 4th OF. I have no problem with him being a place holder on a 90some loss team until the OF of the future arrives, which could start as soon as next year. But to give him a guaranteed deal contains a fairly high risk with very little reward. This is very similar to the Nick Blackburn deal. Revere isn't going to get a ton during his arb years. No reason to guarantee him a lot of money...

A contract can make a player tradable... It can also make them untradable.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 08:15 AM
As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.
Getting back to the projecting part, surplus of what? Surplus of minor league talent? You trade away your MLB players when they gain value in order to make room for wildcards who haven't don't a thing at the MLB level? I guess I would rather see the farm guys who do end up sticking it in the MLB, stay on my team.

The Twins have two outfielders in AA who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than Revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

Why extend Revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.

jorgenswest
12-01-2012, 08:39 AM
Risk of extending? See Nick Blackburn.

Risk of not extending? Revere becomes a much better player than projected and he is due a big pay day in arbitration.

I'd take the second risk. The first means you carry around a poorly performing player too long because of the contract. The second means you pay more for good performance.

The Twins are not a small market team. They can afford to pay high performing players their due in arbitration.

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 08:56 AM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

Yes, if the Twins find themselves needing him as a starting OF in 2014 it is simply a bad thing. I like the guy and all a lot, but there is no long-term future with him. Hopefully he improves enough to add to his trade value (same for Parmelee, because neither are long-term starters for the Twins).

Alex
12-01-2012, 09:03 AM
There's also this guy named Buxton, too, though I realize he's a ways off and no sure thing...But the Twins have 2-3 players behind Revere who could play CF (3 if you count Joe Benson). If Hicks and Benson don't work out, Buxton could be ready by the time Revere starts to get expensive. The point is, there are 2-3 players (again, Benson needs to rebound) could be better than Revere, so there's a good chance that one of them works out. If they bust, you can do as Jorgenwest says and consider re-signing him at that point. It's just not worth it right now.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-01-2012, 09:23 AM
You don't give extensions to 4th outfielders

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 09:27 AM
You don't give extensions to 4th outfielders

You just hurt Mastro's feelings.

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 09:31 AM
There's also this guy named Buxton, too, though I realize he's a ways off and no sure thing...But the Twins have 2-3 players behind Revere who could play CF (3 if you count Joe Benson). If Hicks and Benson don't work out, Buxton could be ready by the time Revere starts to get expensive. The point is, there are 2-3 players (again, Benson needs to rebound) could be better than Revere, so there's a good chance that one of them works out. If they bust, you can do as Jorgenwest says and consider re-signing him at that point. It's just not worth it right now.

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Roberts, Kepler, and Buxton all are better projected players in MLB. Revere is arb eligible in 2014 and won't be expensive at all until at least 2016. So extending . . . why??????????

Brandon
12-01-2012, 10:08 AM
Depends on the extension amounts. We can always do the deal with 1 less year with the option. He's not arbitrtion eligible till after next season. so the contract extension now whould shape up something like.....
year one 500,000
year 2 1,000,000
year 3 3,000,000
year 4 6,000,000
Option 8,000,000

so i could see a 3 year up to 5 million extension or 4 year 11 with options at the end of each, why not? Its obviously team friendly with the risk Revere regresses but if he maintains then it is a good deal for us and who he eventually gets traded to.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-01-2012, 10:20 AM
Depends on the extension amounts. We can always do the deal with 1 less year with the option. He's not arbitrtion eligible till after next season. so the contract extension now whould shape up something like.....
year one 500,000
year 2 1,000,000
year 3 3,000,000
year 4 6,000,000
Option 8,000,000

so i could see a 3 year up to 5 million extension or 4 year 11 with options at the end of each, why not? Its obviously team friendly with the risk Revere regresses but if he maintains then it is a good deal for us and who he eventually gets traded to.
The problem is there is a very good chance that by year 4 Revere is not worth 6 mil a year.

At the end of the day he is a very good 4th OF, you don't give these guys long term contracts when you don't need to. I'm not sure why people think he suddenly might "break out" or something, 2012 is about as good as its going to get from Revere unless he magically learns how to throw the ball or magically learns how to hit for power.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 10:58 AM
Michael Bourn hit 9 home runs last year. Before that his previous high was 5 and typically he hit 2 a year.

Ben Revere had 553 at bats last year at age 24. Michael Bourn had 127 career total at age 24 and the Phillies were able to acquire their closer by trading Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge after that season.

Bourn hit .229 his first full year in the Majors with the Astros. At age 25 which is really two years behind Ben who got MLB at bats at age 23.

Bourn is now set to sign for 75 million at age 29.

I acknowledge that there are negative comps as well but am not motivated to find them.

I do not believe that Revere should be extended at this time but I continue to be amazed by the under valuing of Ben... And from Twins fans to boot.

Ultima Ratio
12-01-2012, 11:17 AM
Let's not make another Blackburn contract mistake. Arb years don't have to be bought out... that's a good thing, that's what they are there for.

The Greatest Poster Alive
12-01-2012, 12:30 PM
No chance. He needs to prove last season wasn't a fluke and his contact rate is sustainable.

Willihammer
12-01-2012, 02:24 PM
The Twins have two outfielders in AA who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than Revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

Why extend Revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.

The Rangers are at this moment trying to nab Andrelton Simmons from the Braves in order to flip him for J Upton. They already have Andrus and Profar. A surplus is a terrific problem to have when everyone is cheap, any manager or GM will say as much. Because whatever internal logjam might occur, it says nothing about their tradeability or the supply of outfielders in other organizations

jokin
12-01-2012, 02:28 PM
The Twins have two outfielders in AA who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than Revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

Why extend Revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.

The Rangers are at this moment trying to nab Andrelton Simmons from the Braves in order to flip him for J Upton. They already have Andrus and Profar. A surplus is a terrific problem to have when everyone is cheap, any manager or GM will say as much. Because whatever internal logjam might occur, it says nothing about their tradeability or the supply of outfielders in other organizations

I'm in total agreement.
The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

I travel quite a bit, who do you think is one of the most likely players brought up in conversation by the typical casual fan when the subject of the Twins comes up? Simply put, there's two kinds of value that a player can bring to the table, that which wins games (by the numbers) and that which puts fans in the seats and in front of the tube ( by the sizzle). Revere's clearly better at the latter, but that ain't all bad.

TheLeviathan
12-01-2012, 02:47 PM
Here's the problem with your argument.....locking Revere into a contract doesn't add or reduce your surplus. It only adds a guaranteed monetary figure to a player with a strong chance of fluctuating production. The Twins will have your surplus either way, you just want to add unnecessary dollar signs to it.

Kobs
12-01-2012, 03:15 PM
The Twins need to lock up Butera and Revere for the next decade.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 03:54 PM
Here's the problem with your argument.....locking Revere into a contract doesn't add or reduce your surplus. It only adds a guaranteed monetary figure to a player with a strong chance of fluctuating production. The Twins will have your surplus either way, you just want to add unnecessary dollar signs to it.

Ding ding ding. It's not as if Revere can leave either way. Worst case scenario, Revere falls in his face and is worthless. The Twins wasted a bunch of money. Best case scenario, Revere turns into a .360 OBP speedster with great defense. Twins still control him through at least 2017.

I see a whole lot of risk there and very little reward.

Jeremy Nygaard
12-01-2012, 04:01 PM
Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 04:23 PM
Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

For it. He showed plate discipline and patience that Revere doesn't have. I like speedy guys if they show a continued ability to get on base. Span had that, Revere doesn't.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
12-01-2012, 04:27 PM
No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Roberts, there is so many possibilities....

diehardtwinsfan
12-01-2012, 04:28 PM
Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

For it. He showed plate discipline and patience that Revere doesn't have. I like speedy guys if they show a continued ability to get on base. Span had that, Revere doesn't.

Span also had a small amount of power.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 04:37 PM
Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

For it. He showed plate discipline and patience that Revere doesn't have. I like speedy guys if they show a continued ability to get on base. Span had that, Revere doesn't.

Span also had a small amount of power.

Yeah, that too. He had discipline and didn't have to rely on the infield hit to get on base. That's a good indicator of continued success in the league because he was never so utterly dependent on using speed and speed alone to be a valuable player.

Jeremy Nygaard
12-01-2012, 04:40 PM
I can see both sides of the argument.

The part that would force me to consider it: Ben Revere is going to go through arbitration four times.

He is similar to Michael Bourn (great D, no power, OBP not where you want for a leadoff guy) and Bourn got almost $15.7m in three arbitration years. Going year to year with Revere is going to be more expensive than buying out those years. I think his D and speed would be valuable enough and worth getting cost certainty. For those that think he's a 4th outfielder, obviously it wouldn't be wise.

The other thing to think about: Hicks is looking more like a guy that would bat 6th than 1st. Buxton is a middle-of-the-order bat or not worth the bonus he signed and far enough away that Revere and Buxton will probably never play together.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 04:50 PM
The other thing to think about: Hicks is looking more like a guy that would bat 6th than 1st. Buxton is a middle-of-the-order bat or not worth the bonus he signed and far enough away that Revere and Buxton will probably never play together.

I'd still bat Hicks first. I'm not going to complain about leadoff homeruns while his speed and plate discipline make him a natural for leadoff.

At worst, move him to second in the lineup. I think his OBP and speed would be a waste toward the back of the order.

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 05:06 PM
If Revere starts turning in .738, .734, .739 OPS (three out of the last 4 years for Bourn, who is really consistent) then we can start comparing him to Bourn and start worrying about his value. However, IF Revere does that and IF he deservedly sticks around (because the other OF options for Twins fall apart), then who the hell cares about paying him $14 million through his arbitration years (2.5, 4.5, 7) naturally? He will be worth it. If, however, he doesn't top .700 or even regresses in even one of those seasons, then it will have been wise not to extend his contract. The risk is bad.

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 05:09 PM
The other thing to think about: Hicks is looking more like a guy that would bat 6th than 1st. Buxton is a middle-of-the-order bat or not worth the bonus he signed and far enough away that Revere and Buxton will probably never play together.

I'd still bat Hicks first. I'm not going to complain about leadoff homeruns while his speed and plate discipline make him a natural for leadoff.

At worst, move him to second in the lineup. I think his OBP and speed would be a waste toward the back of the order.

Hicks is definitely the leadoff man of the future.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 05:11 PM
I'm in total agreement.
The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

Or Billy Beane. Or Andrew Frieman. But hey, they're just keyboard GMs.

Jeremy Nygaard
12-01-2012, 05:12 PM
I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 05:17 PM
I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

I'm hesitant to call Revere a 4th outfielder. He's young and could improve significantly.

On the other hand, banking $15m on improvement that may not happen sounds pretty foolish to me, especially when the worst case scenario will pay about $20m in arbitration.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 05:18 PM
If Revere starts turning in .738, .734, .739 OPS (three out of the last 4 years for Bourn, who is really consistent) then we can start comparing him to Bourn and start worrying about his value. However, IF Revere does that and IF he deservedly sticks around (because the other OF options for Twins fall apart), then who the hell cares about paying him $14 million through his arbitration years (2.5, 4.5, 7) naturally? He will be worth it. If, however, he doesn't top .700 or even regresses in even one of those seasons, then it will have been wise not to extend his contract. The risk is bad.

I don't really like comparing anyone to anyone but I used Bourn as an example just to point out the potential undervalue taking place with Ben by some.

In that sense it's not too soon to compare him to Bourn since Bourn has had more seasons to become(.700 plus OPS) what he became and he didn't get there right away.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that Revere has accomplished more than Bourn did at age 24 and we are talking similiar skill sets.

I do agree with you that it is simply too soon to lock up Revere and it's exactly because of the reasons that you give. If Revere has a nice 2013... I think you can start to think about it. Just not yet... I like him but I am trying to be reasonable when it comes to future projection. Anything can happen but so far he's been good baseball.

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 05:21 PM
I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

Um, I believe it was the opposite. I think they finally moved him to leadoff with Herrmann second and Arcia third after Arcia's promotion. I believe New Britain moved Hicks around 3-5 up until then and he was ok, but much better batting leadoff.

Jeremy Nygaard
12-01-2012, 05:29 PM
I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

Um, I believe it was the opposite. I think they finally moved him to leadoff with Herrmann second and Arcia third after Arcia's promotion. I believe New Britain moved Hicks around 3-5 up until then and he was ok, but much better batting leadoff.

That very well may be true... like I said, I couldn't find splits and didn't feel like going through every boxscore. I know he bounced around the lineup in New Britain. He definitely batted leadoff for the Snappers the two years I watched him play in Beloit.

spideyo
12-01-2012, 06:27 PM
Remember, Revere hasn't actually stayed with the Twins for an entire 162 game season yet. He has areas to improve on for sure, but he was 3rd in SB, 10th in Triples, 6th in singles in the AL. I fully expect that his walk rate will improve, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him in contention for a Gold Glove and leading the league in SB next season.

If we extend him now, we take the chance that he won't pan out. BUT, we won't be taking that big a risk. With his limited big league experience, they should be able to extend him for pretty cheap, cheaper than what it will cost next off-season

TheLeviathan
12-01-2012, 06:38 PM
I don't really like comparing anyone to anyone but I used Bourn as an example just to point out the potential undervalue taking place with Ben by some.

Yes, but then you need to find someone actually comparable. Bourn was 75-100 points higher in OPS, that is not insignificant. Revere is barely a poor-mans Bourn so it's not that people are undervaluing him they are just being honest about his production at this point. Revere could get better, but it's hard to believe it's considerably better when you take into account what he does well and what he doesn't.

The logic I'm hearing is "well what if he becomes a better player - then we'll have to pay him! Better pay him now before he's a good player!" Please take that logic and apply it to Parmalee. Or Hendricks. How about Valencia after his rookie year? It sounds really good on paper but there is a reason why no team in the league operates like that. We shouldn't buck that trend on Revere.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 07:05 PM
I'm comparing skill sets and I believe they are comparable skill set wise... But I don't like comparing players directly because its nearly impossible to compare players like its hard to compare snowflakes.

If OPS is your main point.

Ben Revere OPS .619 in first full year at age 23
Michael Bourn OPS .588 in his first full year at age 25

But again... Bourn has the benefit of time to become what he has become.

And again... I do not think we should extend Ben at this time. But I would like to say that "Extend Ben" Rhymes.

I know you don't hate Ben... We just disagree on his value. That probably won't change unless Revere actually changes it with frying pans over either of our heads.

Jim H
12-01-2012, 07:10 PM
I have no idea whether the Twins should lockup Revere to a long term contract. What I like about Revere is that he is a natural hitter. Some players, Span is a good example, have to learn how to hit in the minors. Revere has always been able to hit. I don't think he will ever be a 4th outfielder. I do think he could contend for batting titles. I also think that he can refine his hitting stroke to the point where he develops a bit more gap power. It is hard to play a guy with that kind of speed too shallow, if the ball gets past you it is a triple or a home run.

Revere has things to learn, but he was also brought up to the majors a year too early. A little more plate discipline, learn how to bunt a little better, a little more consistency with the swing. I expect some pretty good years from Revere as long as he is healthy.

TheLeviathan
12-01-2012, 07:14 PM
I'm comparing skill sets and I believe they are comparable skill set wise....

That's fine, but until we see results like Bourn, we shouldn't pay Revere. I'm not saying he can't reach that level, there is just zero logic in paying him based on the chance that he might be that level of player. Let's at least see which Revere is the real one first: pre-August or August and on before we talk about guaranteeing millions of dollars to him.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 07:19 PM
Remember, Revere hasn't actually stayed with the Twins for an entire 162 game season yet. He has areas to improve on for sure, but he was 3rd in SB, 10th in Triples, 6th in singles in the AL. I fully expect that his walk rate will improve, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him in contention for a Gold Glove and leading the league in SB next season.

If we extend him now, we take the chance that he won't pan out. BUT, we won't be taking that big a risk. With his limited big league experience, they should be able to extend him for pretty cheap, cheaper than what it will cost next off-season

Why will his walk rate improve? It was never very good in the minors. He might draw an extra walk or two but there's no reason to think it will ever be significant.

And how is extending him not taking a big risk? Was Nick Blackburn not a risk? Are the Twins so flush with cash that they didn't need the $5m paid to Nick in 2012? Seems to me that the $11m wasted on Blackburn in 2012/13 could have been used to pay someone who wouldn't help the team to consecutive "worst pitching staff in the AL" awards.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 07:41 PM
Remember, Revere hasn't actually stayed with the Twins for an entire 162 game season yet. He has areas to improve on for sure, but he was 3rd in SB, 10th in Triples, 6th in singles in the AL. I fully expect that his walk rate will improve, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him in contention for a Gold Glove and leading the league in SB next season.

If we extend him now, we take the chance that he won't pan out. BUT, we won't be taking that big a risk. With his limited big league experience, they should be able to extend him for pretty cheap, cheaper than what it will cost next off-season

Why will his walk rate improve? It was never very good in the minors. He might draw an extra walk or two but there's no reason to think it will ever be significant.

And how is extending him not taking a big risk? Was Nick Blackburn not a risk? Are the Twins so flush with cash that they didn't need the $5m paid to Nick in 2012? Seems to me that the $11m wasted on Blackburn in 2012/13 could have been used to pay someone who wouldn't help the team to consecutive "worst pitching staff in the AL" awards.

I can only offer my theory with no proof.

A. He's a free swinger and he was a superstar in High School in Kentucky. The Twins Would not have reached for him in the first round if he wasn't knocking the ball around the park and out while flying around the bases. He hit 28 dingers in High School. I don't believe the Twins Scouts, Cross Checkers, Directors and GM said... Lets reach for this guy with no arm and no power. He would have been available much later with no arm and no power. He was most likely showing something else in High School.

And A High School Coach is not going to want him to stop swinging when he's your superstar and he's knocking the ball around the park.

B. he's still Young... Breaking Habits are hard and he still hasn't failed yet as a free swinger.

C. The Wood Bat... Ben isn't a power hitter no matter how many times he cleared the fence in high school. Since the Dawn of baseball... Coaches consistently take kids with the kinda of speed that Ben and the power that Ben has to use their legs. Ben has taken to that pretty good... Maybe too much.

D. He's the son of a coach... Football coach but a coach none the less. I think it's quite possible that Ben will spend the Winter with Plate discipline as a goal of improvement. Span is gone now... Ben knows that makes him Mr Lead Off candidate. I'm sure he knows what that means and I'm sure his coaches are saying the same thing and Im sure his dad understands it as well.

E. You may be right... He may be the same type of guy who doesn't draw enough free passes 4 years from now. I still think its very possible that he gets better with experience.

Oh yeah"" one more...

F... He's really short... Think Eddie Guedel.

Shane Wahl
12-01-2012, 07:59 PM
I'm comparing skill sets and I believe they are comparable skill set wise... But I don't like comparing players directly because its nearly impossible to compare players like its hard to compare snowflakes.

If OPS is your main point.

Ben Revere OPS .619 in first full year at age 23
Michael Bourn OPS .588 in his first full year at age 25

But again... Bourn has the benefit of time to become what he has become.

And again... I do not think we should extend Ben at this time. But I would like to say that "Extend Ben" Rhymes.

I know you don't hate Ben... We just disagree on his value. That probably won't change unless Revere actually changes it with frying pans over either of our heads.

Yeah, I definitely see your point on this.

jokin
12-01-2012, 08:44 PM
I'm in total agreement.
The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

Or Billy Beane. Or Andrew Frieman. But hey, they're just keyboard GMs.

I assume you assume they would always, without fail, strictly take the sabremetric argument to determine player value, and I concur it has merit, especially in a small market team with little leeway for making a personnel error. There is also the fans-in-the-seats and more Neilsen rating points for FSN argument, too. Plus you have an an extremely athletic guy at 23 who clearly has a potential for a significantly higher ceiling.

jokin
12-01-2012, 08:50 PM
Michael Bourn hit 9 home runs last year. Before that his previous high was 5 and typically he hit 2 a year.

Ben Revere had 553 at bats last year at age 24. Michael Bourn had 127 career total at age 24 and the Phillies were able to acquire their closer by trading Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge after that season.

Bourn hit .229 his first full year in the Majors with the Astros. At age 25 which is really two years behind Ben who got MLB at bats at age 23.

Bourn is now set to sign for 75 million at age 29.

I acknowledge that there are negative comps as well but am not motivated to find them.

I do not believe that Revere should be extended at this time but I continue to be amazed by the under valuing of Ben... And from Twins fans to boot.

I'm not amazed, there are those who follow a certain baseball bible and anyone who's a slightly rounded peg who doesn't fit neatly in their square holes necessarily means he's garbage.

Regarding Bourn's salary demands, supposedly the Cubs are interested and Boras has started the negotiations at not, $75M, but $100M. That the Twins can get a Bourn-lite- who is already producing much better numbers at the same age as Bourn and who isn't all that far from Bourn's best numbers 6 years out and in his prime- at less than $.5M is a payroll godsend for a team that has so many other holes.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 09:30 PM
I'm in total agreement.
The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

Or Billy Beane. Or Andrew Frieman. But hey, they're just keyboard GMs.

I assume you assume they would always, without fail, strictly take the sabremetric argument to determine player value, and I concur it has merit, especially in a small market team with little leeway for making a personnel error. There is also the fans-in-the-seats and more Neilsen rating points for FSN argument, too. Plus you have an an extremely athletic guy at 23 who clearly has a potential for a significantly higher ceiling.

No, I'm saying that they use a surplus to their advantage by trading it off, they don't sit on that surplus and wait for it to lose value.

As for Revere, I keep hearing "expected improvement", "significantly higher ceiling", etc. etc. What are all of you basing this on? The fact that he hasn't posted an OPS higher than .741 since low A? That he hasn't been a plus hitter since Beloit? Brian freakin' Dozier dominated AA for almost an entire season. Revere couldn't even do that. Beyond trying to snatch hope and dreams from the skies, what is the basis for this faith in Revere? Because his on-field performance has said very different things for 4+ years now. Revere may be an acceptable centerfielder. I'm not saying there's no hope for him as a player. My argument is that there is no evidence to support that he will be a plus player. He has no power. He has no patience at the plate. He hasn't been a good hitter at any level since 2009. Every skill he has as a baseball player is based around the fact that he can run really, really fast.

And baseball is historically unkind to those types of players. This isn't sabermetrics. This is observation through 100+ years of the sport. Guys who have one tool tend to fall on their faces, especially if that power is speed.

As for Bourn, his upcoming contract is irrelevant. We should be laughing at whoever Boras hoses into paying that guy big money going into his 30s, just as many of us laughed at Seattle when they did the same for Figgins. How'd that work out for the Mariners? What makes anyone think Bourn is going to hold up as he ages? He's the exact kind of player that doesn't hold up as he hits his 30s. Just because some teams are willing to throw bad money around doesn't mean the Twins should follow suit, particularly when all the cards are in their favor (ie. they have five more years of control of Revere).

This is Baseball 101 and pure common sense, folks.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-01-2012, 09:41 PM
the twins have two outfielders in aa who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

Why extend revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.

the rangers are at this moment trying to nab andrelton simmons from the braves in order to flip him for j upton. They already have andrus and profar. a surplus is a terrific problem to have when everyone is cheap, any manager or gm will say as much. Because whatever internal logjam might occur, it says nothing about their tradeability or the supply of outfielders in other organizations

i'm in total agreement.
The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of td keyboard gms who think they know better.

I travel quite a bit, who do you think is one of the most likely players brought up in conversation by the typical casual fan when the subject of the twins comes up? Simply put, there's two kinds of value that a player can bring to the table, that which wins games (by the numbers) and that which puts fans in the seats and in front of the tube ( by the sizzle). Revere's clearly better at the latter, but that ain't all bad.
derrrrrppppppppppppppppp

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-01-2012, 09:44 PM
The day Revere proves he can hit for even a .700 OPS (Which is still on the "way below average end of the spectrum for OF's) then maybe we can think about having this conversation. Until then, he is nothing more then a 4th OF, or a stop gap CF on a 90 loss type team.

Anyone who argues otherwise on the basis of "He is exciting!!" or whatever doesn't have the faintest idea of how baseball works and understands statistics at a 1st grade level. Not trying to be harsh, but it's the truth.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 09:49 PM
The day Revere proves he can hit for even a .700 OPS (Which is still on the "way below average end of the spectrum for OF's) then maybe we can think about having this conversation. Until then, he is nothing more then a 4th OF, or a stop gap CF on a 90 loss type team.

Anyone who argues otherwise on the basis of "He is exciting!!" or whatever doesn't have the faintest idea of how baseball works and understands statistics at a 1st grade level. Not trying to be harsh, but it's the truth.

I'm going to try and ignore that one. Cuz There are more important things in life.

Carry on

Jeremy Nygaard
12-01-2012, 09:57 PM
Is it fair to say that Ben Revere's natural progression equivalent is Juan Pierre? They seem like similar players.

Kwak
12-01-2012, 10:03 PM
I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 10:04 PM
Is it fair to say that Ben Revere's natural progression equivalent is Juan Pierre? They seem like similar players.

I think Pierre is close to Revere's ceiling. But yeah, not a bad comp at all.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-02-2012, 12:19 AM
I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.
Exactly. There is a reason why teams aren't going around giving Juan Pierre multi year deals.

jokin
12-02-2012, 03:42 AM
Is it fair to say that Ben Revere's natural progression equivalent is Juan Pierre? They seem like similar players.

I think Pierre is close to Revere's ceiling. But yeah, not a bad comp at all.


Revere and Pierre entered the League at approximately the same age. Pierre made $3.7M, $5.8M and $7.5M ($17M) in years 6, 7, 8 of his career (ages 28,29,30).

While Pierre ultimately topped out at $ 10M, Michael Bourn is about to get between 5/$85 and 6/$100 on the open market. If Revere got locked up for an additional 3 years past/during arb (ala Span) for $15-$17M (which Bourn will possibly make in 2013 alone), that's a pretty good risk/reward ratio.

jokin
12-02-2012, 03:45 AM
I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.
Exactly. There is a reason why teams aren't going around giving Juan Pierre multi year deals.

Does that mean Denard Span's deal was a mistake?

jokin
12-02-2012, 03:54 AM
I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.
Exactly. There is a reason why teams aren't going around giving Juan Pierre multi year deals.

Except that Michael Bourn, is being pursued by multiple teams offering monster numbers. Here is clearly an exception to your assertion He's obviously a better player than Pierre, but here is the combined for WAR for both:

Juan Pierre WAR- 5 seasons, ages 26-30- 16.1
Michael Bourn WAR- 5 seasons, ages 26-30- 20.3

Pierre career batting: .336/.363/.700
Bourn career batting: .344/.363/.707


Thus, a good percentage of the difference in WAR is clearly defensive, an average of .84 WAR/yr during their prime years and yet, Bourn is about to break the bank.

jokin
12-02-2012, 04:11 AM
I'm in total agreement.
The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

Or Billy Beane. Or Andrew Frieman. But hey, they're just keyboard GMs.

I assume you assume they would always, without fail, strictly take the sabremetric argument to determine player value, and I concur it has merit, especially in a small market team with little leeway for making a personnel error. There is also the fans-in-the-seats and more Neilsen rating points for FSN argument, too. Plus you have an an extremely athletic guy at 23 who clearly has a potential for a significantly higher ceiling.

No, I'm saying that they use a surplus to their advantage by trading it off, they don't sit on that surplus and wait for it to lose value.

As for Revere, I keep hearing "expected improvement", "significantly higher ceiling", etc. etc. What are all of you basing this on? The fact that he hasn't posted an OPS higher than .741 since low A? That he hasn't been a plus hitter since Beloit? Brian freakin' Dozier dominated AA for almost an entire season. Revere couldn't even do that. Beyond trying to snatch hope and dreams from the skies, what is the basis for this faith in Revere? Because his on-field performance has said very different things for 4+ years now. Revere may be an acceptable centerfielder. I'm not saying there's no hope for him as a player. My argument is that there is no evidence to support that he will be a plus player. He has no power. He has no patience at the plate. He hasn't been a good hitter at any level since 2009. Every skill he has as a baseball player is based around the fact that he can run really, really fast.

And baseball is historically unkind to those types of players. This isn't sabermetrics. This is observation through 100+ years of the sport. Guys who have one tool tend to fall on their faces, especially if that power is speed.

As for Bourn, his upcoming contract is irrelevant. We should be laughing at whoever Boras hoses into paying that guy big money going into his 30s, just as many of us laughed at Seattle when they did the same for Figgins. How'd that work out for the Mariners? What makes anyone think Bourn is going to hold up as he ages? He's the exact kind of player that doesn't hold up as he hits his 30s. Just because some teams are willing to throw bad money around doesn't mean the Twins should follow suit, particularly when all the cards are in their favor (ie. they have five more years of control of Revere).

This is Baseball 101 and pure common sense, folks.

Your assertion then, is that only you have a monopoly on the "common sense trait" and that at least a half a dozen GMs who actually pull the trigger on multi-million deals are cluelessly in over-their-heads? Which one of those jobs have you been interviewed for yet? Newsflash---the top players always get overpaid, especially in the out years--- and I believe that was the point in how this thread started, this isn't a break the bank, "outyears" deal, yet the guys on your side are lining up to club the baby seal.

You've unfairly "Chonesed" poor Ben Revere just as he turns 24 at the start of his career, not 34 at the end of his career, like Figgins. Geez, this topic didn't start out talking about a Michael Bourn contract for Revere, this is about $15-$17M as a 3-year extension bridge to age 30 when the physical breakdowns usually start, the Twins would be mortgaging or risking very little in a deal like this. And if, as you assert, MLB is apparently replete with potential GM "hosees", a deal to "palm Revere off" on one of the many suckers, anywhere along the way, will be a pretty simple task, the Mariners aren't going anywhere.

TheLeviathan
12-02-2012, 07:10 AM
The skillset matters and Revere's is a dangerous one to extend because it is limited. And while people continue to want to ask "Was Span's a mistake?" - I'd counter with this: If we think extending players at this stage in their career is a brilliant idea, how would a 3 year 15M extension to Danny Valencia after his first full season look now? How did Nick Blackburn's look?

Piling guaranteed money into a player at this stage is just not wise. Period.

old nurse
12-02-2012, 07:20 AM
The only way Revere would be extended is an extreme lowball offer. Revere wouldn't be stupid enough to take it, nor would the Twins offer it. The Twins have to be hoping that better OF are in the pipeline that would relegate Revere to 4th OF status.

Brock Beauchamp
12-02-2012, 09:14 AM
Your assertion then, is that only you have a monopoly on the "common sense trait" and that at least a half a dozen GMs who actually pull the trigger on multi-million deals are cluelessly in over-their-heads? Which one of those jobs have you been interviewed for yet? Newsflash---the top players always get overpaid, especially in the out years--- and I believe that was the point in how this thread started, this isn't a break the bank, "outyears" deal, yet the guys on your side are lining up to club the baby seal.

You've unfairly "Chonesed" poor Ben Revere just as he turns 24 at the start of his career, not 34 at the end of his career, like Figgins. Geez, this topic didn't start out talking about a Michael Bourn contract for Revere, this is about $15-$17M as a 3-year extension bridge to age 30 when the physical breakdowns usually start, the Twins would be mortgaging or risking very little in a deal like this. And if, as you assert, MLB is apparently replete with potential GM "hosees", a deal to "palm Revere off" on one of the many suckers, anywhere along the way, will be a pretty simple task, the Mariners aren't going anywhere.

Jesus, way to twist what I'm saying. I'm saying it's common sense to not extend Revere when the Twins have five more years of control. It's an unnecessary risk because players of his type generally don't age well.

How am I unfairly "Chonesing" Revere? He's under team control until his late 20s, just as Figgins was when the Angels let him go. This isn't only about Figgins. This is about Pierre, who dropped off a cliff and never posted a WAR higher than 1.8 after his age 28 season. This is about Vince Coleman, who was a 2 WAR player for several years before dropping off a cliff at age 28, never posting another WAR higher than 1.0. This is about Marquis-freakin-Grissom, who posted a ridiculous 25 WAR in his age 23-29 seasons. After that, he only cleared a 1.0 WAR in three more seasons and posted negative WARs in three more seasons. This is about a list as long as my arm of guys just like Ben Revere; guys who played well through their mid-20s and then hit a brick wall. You can wish and hope all you like but the players of Revere's ilk who play well for an extended period of time are few and far between while the guys who crash and burn after 2-3 seasons are nearly innumerable.

Revere's ceiling is low and his risk of failure is high. Every player that relies on speed and BABIP is walking a very fine line of baseball success. Why on Earth would you give a low ceiling, high risk guy an extended contract, especially when you control him for five more years no matter what happens? This is exactly like Nick Blackburn, Part 2. I cannot see why people around here can't see that. It's staring you all straight in the face.

Brock Beauchamp
12-02-2012, 09:18 AM
I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.
Exactly. There is a reason why teams aren't going around giving Juan Pierre multi year deals.

Does that mean Denard Span's deal was a mistake?

Ben Revere and Denard Span are not even close to the same player. Revere puts the ball on the ground 10% more time while Denard puts it in the air nearly 15% more of the time. Denard has a multi-year track record of taking pitches, working counts, and getting on base. Revere hasn't done that since Beloit. Revere relied on over 30 infield hits to post his meager stats in 2012; Denard has never had more than 24 infield hits and that was during a season where he posted nearly a .400 OBP. Denard had 46 extra-base hits in 2012. Ben Revere had 19.

Would you like me to go on?

Shane Wahl
12-02-2012, 09:47 AM
Also, even given the obviously differences between Revere and Span (it still alarms me that people don't see these differences--the Twins, in a smarter management world, should just give up and bat Mauer leadoff), the Span deal was a bit of a reach at the time and certainly could legitimately be called a bad risk. That he recovered from the concussion problems made that deal good (as does this trade . . . . pretty please).

Again, there is no reason to risk Blackburnesque dollar amounts (sound different than Spanesque, doesn't it?) in order to save, what, $3-5 million bucks over the controlled years? If Revere progresses and puts up some Bourn-like numbers, the pay he earns will be WORTH IT. If if doesn't perform that well (which is more likely) then they haven't committed to him long-term and will be saving $8-12 million or more. I would really hope that Revere isn't starting in 2014, because that will mean bad things for the Twins concerning the development of better players like Hicks, Arcia, and even Benson. Regardless, by 2015, I will be SHOCKED if Revere is starting for the Twins. The time to trade him will probably be pre-2014 deadline.

Riverbrian
12-02-2012, 10:52 AM
We should not extend Ben at this time. The Twins can afford to be patient on this one. It make sense to patient. We should not extend Ben at this time... Maybe next year... Maybe never...

Can we stop tearing the kid down now please. He doesn't deserve it.

diehardtwinsfan
12-02-2012, 11:05 AM
I'm comparing skill sets and I believe they are comparable skill set wise....

That's fine, but until we see results like Bourn, we shouldn't pay Revere. I'm not saying he can't reach that level, there is just zero logic in paying him based on the chance that he might be that level of player. Let's at least see which Revere is the real one first: pre-August or August and on before we talk about guaranteeing millions of dollars to him.

Pretty much this. The guys that get approached with extensions this early on in their careers typically have already had success to justify it along with the skillset that says "this guy's going to be pretty good." You give extensions to guys like Evan Longoria this early in your career, not to guys like Ben Revere. Even if Revere replicated his rookie season, I'm not sure I'd extend him...

The guys who I'd be thinking about extending in the next year or two would be guys like Plouffe and Parmalee assuming they have very good seasons.

diehardtwinsfan
12-02-2012, 11:10 AM
Does that mean Denard Span's deal was a mistake?

You aren't even comparing apples to apples here. Span had come off of two seasons posting an .800 OPS, strong on base skills, and above average defense at a key position. Revere has played for essentially 1 season and has done only the defensive side of things. There's legitimate question as to whether or not he will ever be able to top a .750 OPS and whether his on base skills will improve too. While Span didn't have a ton of minor league success either, Span did show improvement and then got the contract. If Revere can do that for two years, I guarantee you they will give him an extension to buy out his arb years, but if he does not, they should not.

Kobs
12-02-2012, 11:03 PM
The Twins might want to wait an see if Ben Revere ever actually becomes any good before giving him a big guaranteed contract.

USAFChief
12-03-2012, 12:03 AM
The Twins should extend Revere, and play him in RF, because he doubles the UZR of whoever ends up in CF. I bet he can even get Doumit to frame pitches better.

Chris in Osaka
12-03-2012, 12:57 AM
No. He has shown no ability to get on base at anything approaching an acceptable clip.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 06:48 AM
The Twins should extend Revere, and play him in RF, because he doubles the UZR of whoever ends up in CF. I bet he can even get Doumit to frame pitches better.

Ahahahahahahah, you ass. Well played.

jokin
12-03-2012, 07:14 PM
The Twins might want to wait an see if Ben Revere ever actually becomes any good before giving him a big guaranteed contract.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle?

from MLB Traderumors:

"Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Josh Willingham (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com)."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99


(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99)

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 07:23 PM
We should not extend Ben at this time. The Twins can afford to be patient on this one. It make sense to patient. We should not extend Ben at this time... Maybe next year... Maybe never...

Can we stop tearing the kid down now please. He doesn't deserve it.
Nobody is tearing him down. Pointing out that he has zero power, no arm and projects more as a 4th OF isn't tearing him down, it's just reality. Nobody will be more happy then me if he proves me wrong, I just don't see it.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 07:25 PM
The Twins might want to wait an see if Ben Revere ever actually becomes any good before giving him a big guaranteed contract.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle?

from MLB Traderumors:

"Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Josh Willingham (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com)."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99


(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99)


If a team offers any SP (or SP prospect) of value for Revere the Twins need to hop on it ASAP. They already have a superior option who is almost MLB ready in Aaron Hicks. I would prefer not to start Hicks clock this early this year, but if it brings back pitching, go for it!

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 07:28 PM
The Twins might want to wait an see if Ben Revere ever actually becomes any good before giving him a big guaranteed contract.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle?

from MLB Traderumors:

"Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Josh Willingham (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com)."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99


(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99)



Well, Hicks is a former 1st rounder with 5 seasons in the minors...it's about time he gets a chance.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-03-2012, 07:32 PM
The Twins might want to wait an see if Ben Revere ever actually becomes any good before giving him a big guaranteed contract.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle?

from MLB Traderumors:

"Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Josh Willingham (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com)."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99


(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99)



Well, Hicks is a former 1st rounder with 5 seasons in the minors...it's about time he gets a chance.

To be fair, he wasn't exactly making a case to be promoted quickly until last year really.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 08:17 PM
Does that mean Denard Span's deal was a mistake?

You aren't even comparing apples to apples here. Span had come off of two seasons posting an .800 OPS, strong on base skills, and above average defense at a key position. Revere has played for essentially 1 season and has done only the defensive side of things. There's legitimate question as to whether or not he will ever be able to top a .750 OPS and whether his on base skills will improve too. While Span didn't have a ton of minor league success either, Span did show improvement and then got the contract. If Revere can do that for two years, I guarantee you they will give him an extension to buy out his arb years, but if he does not, they should not.

We're not going to go anywhere this coming year, likely not next year...so trading Span for Meyer made sense when you look at it that way and it makes sense to do the same with Revere. Heck even Willingham. Bring up Hicks and Arcia, let them get their lumps and then they aren't getting their lumps when we're geared up to be a lot more competitive. Hicks has nothing left to prove and Arcia certainly doesn't

Oxtung
12-03-2012, 08:33 PM
We're not going to go anywhere this coming year, likely not next year...so trading Span for Meyer made sense when you look at it that way and it makes sense to do the same with Revere. Heck even Willingham. Bring up Hicks and Arcia, let them get their lumps and then they aren't getting their lumps when we're geared up to be a lot more competitive. Hicks has nothing left to prove and Arcia certainly doesn't

I personally disagree with the burn it down strategy you're promoting in this post but even if that is the route we head down throwing prospects to the wolves isn't a good solution. Hicks hasn't had an AB above AA and Arcia has only 250 AB's above A ball. It would be foolish to just hand either of them a position this coming year. If you trade Willingham, Morneau, et. al. there would be plenty of money to bring in veterans to fill the vacated spots for however long is needed before our young talent shows it is ready for the bigs.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 08:43 PM
We're not going to go anywhere this coming year, likely not next year...so trading Span for Meyer made sense when you look at it that way and it makes sense to do the same with Revere. Heck even Willingham. Bring up Hicks and Arcia, let them get their lumps and then they aren't getting their lumps when we're geared up to be a lot more competitive. Hicks has nothing left to prove and Arcia certainly doesn't

I personally disagree with the burn it down strategy you're promoting in this post but even if that is the route we head down throwing prospects to the wolves isn't a good solution. Hicks hasn't had an AB above AA and Arcia has only 250 AB's above A ball. It would be foolish to just hand either of them a position this coming year. If you trade Willingham, Morneau, et. al. there would be plenty of money to bring in veterans to fill the vacated spots for however long is needed before our young talent shows it is ready for the bigs.

Plenty of players skip AAA ball altogether. Maybe not Twins players, but still. Both these guys have 5 years in the minors. Don't need any more time there.

And perhaps you don't agree with burn it down...and I'm not sure that is what I'm promoting. Willingham is only signed for two more years...he won't be around for the future, and we aren't going anywhere in the next year, maybe two. He'll be gone when we get competitive again. And Revere isn't major league starting material IMO...

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 08:55 PM
Hicks has struggled at nearly every level before sorting it out the following season. Arcia is 21 years old. How on earth can you say they don't need any more time in the minors?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 08:58 PM
Hicks has struggled at nearly every level before sorting it out the following season. Arcia is 21 years old. How on earth can you say they don't need any more time in the minors?

I don't worry too much about age I guess. Arcia will be 22 a month into next season though. And Hicks is 23.

ashburyjohn
12-03-2012, 08:59 PM
Willingham is only signed for two more years...he won't be around for the future, and we aren't going anywhere in the next year, maybe two. He'll be gone when we get competitive again.

Conversely, if you trade away all the valuable veterans, and aim for competitiveness with the young'uns in 2015, you need to go acquire some stopgap talent to bridge 2013-12014, hopefully for not too much money, and good enough that you can keep the fanbase engaged for those two years. We don't want a team of Rule-5 draftees that lose 110 games. A contract/talent combination like Willingham's is exactly what's called for. Wish we could get a few more like him - not all plodding powerhitting outfielders, I mean guys who fit the timetable and have some talent at their respective positions (pitching especially!). They aren't totally easy to find.

Guys like Morneau, signed only for 1 year, don't fit that two year bridge, and make sense to shop actively. If we had someone signed for 3+ years who wasn't really great and was blocking a young'un who'll be ready in 2015, likewise, but I don't think anyone other than Mauer is signed multi-year by now, and he's good enough to contribute heavily to a contending team in 2015-16.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 09:01 PM
Hicks has struggled at nearly every level before sorting it out the following season. Arcia is 21 years old. How on earth can you say they don't need any more time in the minors?

I don't worry too much about age I guess.

It's not only age. Arica has all of 250 ABs above A ball.

Patience. We should see both of them in 2013. There's no reason to rush them out of spring training.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 09:12 PM
Hicks has struggled at nearly every level before sorting it out the following season. Arcia is 21 years old. How on earth can you say they don't need any more time in the minors?

I don't worry too much about age I guess.

It's not only age. Arica has all of 250 ABs above A ball.

Patience. We should see both of them in 2013. There's no reason to rush them out of spring training.

I'm patient enough...but we need pitching right? For the future? If Revere and Willingham can get us those pitchers, I don't see any reason to not trade them and bring up Hicks and Arcia. Will they struggle, probably...why not let them struggle when next year is likely lost anyway?

I understand you argument, and perhaps you're right...I see that you could be...I just don't think we need to coddle every prospect making them all spend so much time in the minors.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 09:15 PM
Even Mike Trout received over 500 PAs in AA/AAA. There's "not coddling a player" and there's "dangerously rushing a prospect for no reason".

With that said, if an offer is received for Willingham and it's good, Ryan should take it. Two months of Mastrioanni won't kill us.

ashburyjohn
12-03-2012, 09:21 PM
I'm patient enough...but we need pitching right? For the future? If Revere and Willingham can get us those pitchers, I don't see any reason to not trade them and bring up Hicks and Arcia. Will they struggle, probably...why not let them struggle when next year is likely lost anyway?

You start the free-agency (and arbitration) clock a year, or maybe two, early. While the Twins don't necessarily have to view themselves as bottom feeders, they can't waste the high-talent/low-wage years that the CBA gives them. That, at least to me, is the answer to "why not". You can make the trades you outline, but decent talent for a two-year bridge needs to be found as replacement.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 09:25 PM
Even Mike Trout received over 500 PAs in AA/AAA. There's "not coddling a player" and there's "dangerously rushing a prospect for no reason".

With that said, if an offer is received for Willingham and it's good, Ryan should take it. Two months of Mastrioanni won't kill us.

Arcia stats his last three years in the minors are comparable to Trouts first three before being he was brought up for a cup of coffee at the end of his third year. Would you agree? Why wasn't Arcia promoted to AAA already? That's not on him. It's not him that he was still in A+ ball going into his 5th year in the minors. Or still in rookie ball to start his 4th year

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 09:28 PM
I'm patient enough...but we need pitching right? For the future? If Revere and Willingham can get us those pitchers, I don't see any reason to not trade them and bring up Hicks and Arcia. Will they struggle, probably...why not let them struggle when next year is likely lost anyway?

You start the free-agency (and arbitration) clock a year, or maybe two, early. While the Twins don't necessarily have to view themselves as bottom feeders, they can't waste the high-talent/low-wage years that the CBA gives them. That, at least to me, is the answer to "why not". You can make the trades you outline, but decent talent for a two-year bridge needs to be found as replacement.

That's a fair argument...one could also say nitpicking a player's game to death in the minors or staling him might take away confidence.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 09:39 PM
Even Mike Trout received over 500 PAs in AA/AAA. There's "not coddling a player" and there's "dangerously rushing a prospect for no reason".

With that said, if an offer is received for Willingham and it's good, Ryan should take it. Two months of Mastrioanni won't kill us.

Arcia stats his last three years in the minors are comparable to Trouts first three before being he was brought up for a cup of coffee at the end of his third year. Would you agree? Why wasn't Arcia promoted to AAA already? That's not on him. It's not him that he was still in A+ ball going into his 5th year in the minors. Or still in rookie ball to start his 4th year

Look at the stats more closely. Arica was fast-tracked until he stalled out in 2011... Can't recall if he was injured or not. Now he's quickly advancing again.

Also, Trout never struck out nearly as much as Arcia. That's often a sign of bad breaking ball recognition, which means you absolutely do not advance that player. You try to let them sort that out in the minors, you don't let them flail away in the majors, completely overmatched.

You really need to stop referencing that he's a fifth year player. He's 21 years old. He signed at age 16, when Trout was probably chasing tail as a sophomore in high school.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 09:42 PM
Hunter as a first rounder posted an OPS barely in the .500s his first year in the minors (only 28 games) and went to A ball the next year. He didn't go through three rookie leagues or start his 4th season in rookie ball before moving to A ball. In A ball, he posted a .796 OPS, and got promoted to A+ ball the next season. That season, he posted an OPS of .678 and only had 4 games to start the next year in A+, posting an OPS in the .400s, before being promoted to AA only 4 games into his 4th season. Looking at those numbers, he should have never been promoted anywhere near that quickly. How many would be arguing against it?

But having Arcia start his 4th season in rookie ball isn't coddling him?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 09:43 PM
Even Mike Trout received over 500 PAs in AA/AAA. There's "not coddling a player" and there's "dangerously rushing a prospect for no reason".

With that said, if an offer is received for Willingham and it's good, Ryan should take it. Two months of Mastrioanni won't kill us.

Arcia stats his last three years in the minors are comparable to Trouts first three before being he was brought up for a cup of coffee at the end of his third year. Would you agree? Why wasn't Arcia promoted to AAA already? That's not on him. It's not him that he was still in A+ ball going into his 5th year in the minors. Or still in rookie ball to start his 4th year

Look at the stats more closely. Arica was fast-tracked until he stalled out in 2011... Can't recall if he was injured or not. Now he's quickly advancing again.

Also, Trout never struck out nearly as much as Arcia. That's often a sign of bad breaking ball recognition, which means you absolutely do not advance that player. You try to let them sort that out in the minors, you don't let them flail away in the majors, completely overmatched.

You really need to stop referencing that he's a fifth year player. He's 21 years old. He signed at age 16, when Trout was probably chasing tail as a sophomore in high school.

Fast tracked? He started his 4th season in the minors still in rookie ball...and he was 17 his first year in the minors.. Like Hunter was

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 09:48 PM
Look, I can see your point of view...I respect your point of view...I just don't agree.

Brock Beauchamp
12-03-2012, 09:50 PM
Even Mike Trout received over 500 PAs in AA/AAA. There's "not coddling a player" and there's "dangerously rushing a prospect for no reason".

With that said, if an offer is received for Willingham and it's good, Ryan should take it. Two months of Mastrioanni won't kill us.

Arcia stats his last three years in the minors are comparable to Trouts first three before being he was brought up for a cup of coffee at the end of his third year. Would you agree? Why wasn't Arcia promoted to AAA already? That's not on him. It's not him that he was still in A+ ball going into his 5th year in the minors. Or still in rookie ball to start his 4th year

Look at the stats more closely. Arica was fast-tracked until he stalled out in 2011... Can't recall if he was injured or not. Now he's quickly advancing again.

Also, Trout never struck out nearly as much as Arcia. That's often a sign of bad breaking ball recognition, which means you absolutely do not advance that player. You try to let them sort that out in the minors, you don't let them flail away in the majors, completely overmatched.

You really need to stop referencing that he's a fifth year player. He's 21 years old. He signed at age 16, when Trout was probably chasing tail as a sophomore in high school.

Fast tracked? He started his 4th season in the minors still in rookie ball...and he was 17 his first year in the minors.. Like Hunter was

Because he was under 18 and from another country. Teams keep those guys in rookie ball to teach them English and basic life stuff. Every team does this. It's not unique to the Twins.

These players are adjusting to a lot more than breaking balls. You can't toss an 18 year old from Venezuela into the big leagues and expect success.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 10:09 PM
Even Mike Trout received over 500 PAs in AA/AAA. There's "not coddling a player" and there's "dangerously rushing a prospect for no reason".

With that said, if an offer is received for Willingham and it's good, Ryan should take it. Two months of Mastrioanni won't kill us.

Arcia stats his last three years in the minors are comparable to Trouts first three before being he was brought up for a cup of coffee at the end of his third year. Would you agree? Why wasn't Arcia promoted to AAA already? That's not on him. It's not him that he was still in A+ ball going into his 5th year in the minors. Or still in rookie ball to start his 4th year

Look at the stats more closely. Arica was fast-tracked until he stalled out in 2011... Can't recall if he was injured or not. Now he's quickly advancing again.

Also, Trout never struck out nearly as much as Arcia. That's often a sign of bad breaking ball recognition, which means you absolutely do not advance that player. You try to let them sort that out in the minors, you don't let them flail away in the majors, completely overmatched.

You really need to stop referencing that he's a fifth year player. He's 21 years old. He signed at age 16, when Trout was probably chasing tail as a sophomore in high school.

Fast tracked? He started his 4th season in the minors still in rookie ball...and he was 17 his first year in the minors.. Like Hunter was

Because he was under 18 and from another country. Teams keep those guys in rookie ball to teach them English and basic life stuff. Every team does this. It's not unique to the Twins.

These players are adjusting to a lot more than breaking balls. You can't toss an 18 year old from Venezuela into the big leagues and expect success.

I wasn't suggesting tossing an 18 year old from Venezuela into the Bigs. I was suggesting tossing a 22 year old from Venezuala into the Bigs and accepting the fact he may struggle :-)

I've enjoyed the debate. You made a compelling argument.

Jeremy Nygaard
12-03-2012, 10:24 PM
Look at the stats more closely. Arica was fast-tracked until he stalled out in 2011... Can't recall if he was injured or not. Now he's quickly advancing again.

Arcia had an elbow injury that prevented him from fielding in Beloit. He went to Fort Myers to rehab and ended up just staying there. He essentially skipped low-A altogether (81 PAs), Hicks spent two full years there.

I'm not suggesting anything... just pointing that out.

jokin
12-03-2012, 10:36 PM
The Twins might want to wait an see if Ben Revere ever actually becomes any good before giving him a big guaranteed contract.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle?

from MLB Traderumors:

"Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) and Josh Willingham (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com)."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99


(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99)


If a team offers any SP (or SP prospect) of value for Revere the Twins need to hop on it ASAP. They already have a superior option who is almost MLB ready in Aaron Hicks. I would prefer not to start Hicks clock this early this year, but if it brings back pitching, go for it!


Hoo-Rah. We have finally found something that we are in 100% agreement on. I just hope our mutual faith in Hicks being the real deal is realized (even though it's been just one year of the "real deal" so far)- a guy who would bring to the table the BEST traits of both Span and Revere and hopefully those other tools that neither posess.

Shane Wahl
12-03-2012, 10:45 PM
At this point, given 2013 is very likely a bust, I would prefer the obvious trade of Justin Morneau for another Meyer type prospect at A/AA level. The Twins could likely just go for a stop gap RF or even a LH platoon with Mastro. That stop gap, if decent enough (not looking up names at the moment), could also be traded for some low level medium prospect at the deadline and that would make room for Hicks and Arcia.

I don't like trading Willingham just yet. Next offseason would be ideal.

ashburyjohn
12-03-2012, 10:47 PM
I'm patient enough...but we need pitching right? For the future? If Revere and Willingham can get us those pitchers, I don't see any reason to not trade them and bring up Hicks and Arcia. Will they struggle, probably...why not let them struggle when next year is likely lost anyway?

You start the free-agency (and arbitration) clock a year, or maybe two, early. While the Twins don't necessarily have to view themselves as bottom feeders, they can't waste the high-talent/low-wage years that the CBA gives them. That, at least to me, is the answer to "why not". You can make the trades you outline, but decent talent for a two-year bridge needs to be found as replacement.

That's a fair argument...one could also say nitpicking a player's game to death in the minors or staling him might take away confidence.

Yes, it's a balancing act. You can't (and shouldn't) let a player waste productive years in the minors just because it's not his "turn" yet - for one thing you'll find it much more difficult to sign your draftees in years to come. But, if they are not yet productive, i.e. they are brought up and allowed to "struggle", then that side of the argument starts to weigh less, and you have the converse problem of establishing a certain amount of complacency in the clubhouse because 'hey, they don't have someone they can replace me with anyway'.

A GMs job is just hard. I keep coming back to that.

jokin
12-03-2012, 10:47 PM
We should not extend Ben at this time. The Twins can afford to be patient on this one. It make sense to patient. We should not extend Ben at this time... Maybe next year... Maybe never...

Can we stop tearing the kid down now please. He doesn't deserve it.
Nobody is tearing him down. Pointing out that he has zero power, no arm and projects more as a 4th OF isn't tearing him down, it's just reality. Nobody will be more happy then me if he proves me wrong, I just don't see it.

There was evidence presented that what we have seen thus far from Revere isn't necessarily a finished product. I just hated seeing a guy who has brought his own brand of positivity to 2 dreadful Twins seasons so ripped-upon by his own fan-base. The fact that there might be some other teams out there with interest confirms that I was at least on the right path.

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 10:54 PM
We should not extend Ben at this time. The Twins can afford to be patient on this one. It make sense to patient. We should not extend Ben at this time... Maybe next year... Maybe never...

Can we stop tearing the kid down now please. He doesn't deserve it.
Nobody is tearing him down. Pointing out that he has zero power, no arm and projects more as a 4th OF isn't tearing him down, it's just reality. Nobody will be more happy then me if he proves me wrong, I just don't see it.

There was evidence presented that what we have seen thus far from Revere isn't necessarily a finished product. I just hated seeing a guy who has brought his own brand of positivity to 2 dreadful Twins seasons so ripped-upon by his own fan-base. The fact that there might be some other teams out there with interest confirms that I was at least on the right path.

Right or wrong, and likely wrong, I imagine a lot of the issues people have with Revere probably stem from the team and our announcers drooling over him...basically forcing him down our throats constantly....severely exaggerating his play. Especially his rookie year. One could argue that with so little to be excited over, they had to focus on him, but still, the constant comparisons to Puckett got old. One of my favorites was the poll on which of 5 plays was his best, failing to mention that 3 of those were clearly due to him misplaying the ball off the bat to begin with causing him to make a great play instead of a mostly routine play. His defense got better this year, but he still lack in OB skills, he still lacks an arm...he needs to be much better to deserve the praise he gets.

jokin
12-03-2012, 10:55 PM
I'm patient enough...but we need pitching right? For the future? If Revere and Willingham can get us those pitchers, I don't see any reason to not trade them and bring up Hicks and Arcia. Will they struggle, probably...why not let them struggle when next year is likely lost anyway?

You start the free-agency (and arbitration) clock a year, or maybe two, early. While the Twins don't necessarily have to view themselves as bottom feeders, they can't waste the high-talent/low-wage years that the CBA gives them. That, at least to me, is the answer to "why not". You can make the trades you outline, but decent talent for a two-year bridge needs to be found as replacement.

That's a fair argument...one could also say nitpicking a player's game to death in the minors or staling him might take away confidence.

Yes, it's a balancing act. You can't (and shouldn't) let a player waste productive years in the minors just because it's not his "turn" yet - for one thing you'll find it much more difficult to sign your draftees in years to come. But, if they are not yet productive, i.e. they are brought up and allowed to "struggle", then that side of the argument starts to weigh less, and you have the converse problem of establishing a certain amount of complacency is allowed in the players because 'hey, they don't have someone they can replace me with anyway'.

A GMs job is just hard. I keep coming back to that.Point well taken, especially in these parts. Still, the 84-86 kiddie Twins as a model for future success isn't necessarily a bad one for the current GM to emulate. I think you could sell a group of exciting young players to the extended fan-base if they are honestly given the right expectations, not the hemming and hawing propaganda line from St Peter, St Antony and St Ryan. Even now, as Jim Crikket so aptly pointed out, they are using party line subterfuge, all the while going after the Marquis-Plus bargain bin starters to fill out the rotation. It would be refreshing if they would just admit that 2013's going to be a struggle and go from there.

jokin
12-03-2012, 11:24 PM
We should not extend Ben at this time. The Twins can afford to be patient on this one. It make sense to patient. We should not extend Ben at this time... Maybe next year... Maybe never...

Can we stop tearing the kid down now please. He doesn't deserve it.
Nobody is tearing him down. Pointing out that he has zero power, no arm and projects more as a 4th OF isn't tearing him down, it's just reality. Nobody will be more happy then me if he proves me wrong, I just don't see it.

There was evidence presented that what we have seen thus far from Revere isn't necessarily a finished product. I just hated seeing a guy who has brought his own brand of positivity to 2 dreadful Twins seasons so ripped-upon by his own fan-base. The fact that there might be some other teams out there with interest confirms that I was at least on the right path.

Right or wrong, and likely wrong, I imagine a lot of the issues people have with Revere probably stem from the team and our announcers drooling over him...basically forcing him down our throats constantly....severely exaggerating his play. Especially his rookie year. One could argue that with so little to be excited over, they had to focus on him, but still, the constant comparisons to Puckett got old. One of my favorites was the poll on which of 5 plays was his best, failing to mention that 3 of those were clearly due to him misplaying the ball off the bat to begin with causing him to make a great play instead of a mostly routine play. His defense got better this year, but he still lack in OB skills, he still lacks an arm...he needs to be much better to deserve the praise he gets.

He's likely never going to be close to Puckett, I think even DicknBert would admit to that. Not only did his defense improve this year, he improved at the plate (admittedly not a quantum leap, to be sure), his arm- or at least his approach at getting rid of the ball more quickly and efficiently- did show great improvement this year, did I read that he led the outfielders in assists? That he showed improvement with his given athletic skill set and off-season work habits, hopefully means he can make another jump at improving his categories of deficiency, which you accurately point out. As an example, Carlos Gomez was a far goofier, vastly more undisciplined player as a Twin. Look at Go-Go's progression from age 22 to age 27:

OPS #s: .592/.651/.623/.655/.679/.768 FWIW, Fangraphs valued him at $9M last year and $15.8M in 2012

Look at Revere ages 23 and 24: OPS .619/.675 And he is an immensely better baserunner than Go-Go- again, FWIW with a grain of salt from Fangraphs, they establish his value in 2011 was $9M and this year it was $15.2M. An optimist would say he's ahead of Gomez at the same point of his career. Who wouldn't be thrilled if he could consistently hit .725-.750 OPS and bring what he brings on the basepaths in the #9 slot in the batting order?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 11:32 PM
You mean did he lead OUR OF in assists? Yes. Two more than Span and Willingham. But heck, enough runners run on you, you're bound to throw a few out :-)

jokin
12-03-2012, 11:35 PM
No doubt that the Twins pitching staff gave him more chances, just as every other OF had more chances to demonstrate their abilities, a hearty thankyou is in order to our pitchers for listening verrry closely to their coaches about the importance of pitching to contact. :talk028:

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 11:36 PM
No doubt that the Twins pitching staff gave him more chances, just as every other OF had more chances to demonstrate their abilities, thanks to pitchers for listening to their coaches about the importance of pitching to contact. :talk028:

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted...l Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing for example, as opposed to charging a ball coming in, getting it, then throwing while in motion.

jokin
12-03-2012, 11:44 PM
No doubt that the Twins pitching staff gave him more chances, just as every other OF had more chances to demonstrate their abilities, thanks to pitchers for listening to their coaches about the importance of pitching to contact. :talk028:

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted as opposed to getting a running start before throwing. Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing.

Yup, I saw what you saw, the good, agressive managers had a field day on advancng 1st-3rd. I attribute that mostly to the (proper) decision to keep Span in CF for showcase/future trading value purposes, that would be much less of an issue with Revere in CF or LF. Didn't Revere have a few tag-up put outs, so that going forward and releasing in one smooth motion showed improvement?

ThePuck
12-03-2012, 11:51 PM
yeah he did, and that was nice, but he also had quite a few times where the ball was hit to the OF, hopped a few times as he was charging it, and in his haste to make a throw, bobbled the ball. He's improving, but he'll always have a weak arm. Just like Pierre and Damon did through their careers. I'll never forget his rookie year where A.J. Pierzinski scored from 2B, standing up, on a ball hit to short CF as Revere fielded it, threw the ball, and six hopped the ball home.

Riverbrian
12-04-2012, 12:33 AM
No doubt that the Twins pitching staff gave him more chances, just as every other OF had more chances to demonstrate their abilities, thanks to pitchers for listening to their coaches about the importance of pitching to contact. :talk028:

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted as opposed to getting a running start before throwing. Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing.

Yup, I saw what you saw, the good, agressive managers had a field day on advancng 1st-3rd. I attribute that mostly to the (proper) decision to keep Span in CF for showcase/future trading value purposes, that would be much less of an issue with Revere in CF or LF. Didn't Revere have a few tag-up put outs, so that going forward and releasing in one smooth motion showed improvement?

His arm is weak... No doubt... But I seriously don't know what you guys saw... I watched the majority of games... There were times when the runner went first to third with Revere in RF... And in my opinion... Moments where they may not have attempted that on Francour... But let's not make it sound like it was a first to third party going on. It wasn't...

Its the type of statement you make when you know someone has a weak arm but they were not running wild and that is the impression you are leaving.

And let's be honest on the other side... He gets to the ball quicker and gets it in quicker... I don't care if a 4th grader is holding the ball in RF... If the ball is in his glove and the runner hasn't rounded second... He ain't going...

Serious embellishment going on here... His arm is weak... Got it... No argument... It will cost the Twins a run on occasion... No doubt... He doesn't have the Harper Hose...

The problem with these discussions as Puck pointed out. Is that it makes people draw lines in the sand... The pro Revere crowd like me end up losing our objectivity because we end up defending him... the anti or non Revere crowd end up disliking him more and yeah... I think they lose objectivity as well..

I don't want to shove Revere down anyone's throat... I shouldnt have to... hes done well... And Im trying to stop... But c'mon... He gave it and I assume he will continue to give it...

He was a first round draft pick and he was a 3rd round projection. No organization is going to reach into the 1st round unless he's knocking the ball around the park... And no team is going to reach for a pick unless they see something and think another squad saw something as well... That is why they reach... To get your guy... If Revere was showing no arm and No power he ain't going in the first round. Can we agree on that... I know some people think Terry Ryan and the front office are idiots... They are not that big of idiots... They are not taking a light hitting fast guy projected in the third round in the first... Jerrod Dyson went in the 50th round... That's where the fast guys who can't hit go... 50th round.

Was it a first round mistake? If you look back at 2007... There only a few of that class in the majors right now so I'd say no... With hindsight you could claim Frazier... d'Arnaud or Luebke may have been better choices in that slot... But with that same hindsight... 11 teams that drafted before the Twins did... they would be loving Revere instead of the guy they got.

You are also looking at a kid... 1st round pick who was not stalled in the minors for a second... Rookie... A... High A... AA... Majors... Advanced like clockwork...

He hasn't failed yet... At any level... including the majors... Whatever is thought to be wrong with him by some on this board... It didn't hold him back for a second cuz... here he is.

I,m not sure what measuring stick you are using... But a 1st round pick who advanced thru the farm with no stalling has to have value. So I'm pretty confident we have some undervaluing going on but it's clear that opinions are not going to change... So I'm really gonna try to stop now... But Like the Godfather III... Someone is gonna pull me back in.

If people talking him up is bugging you... Even if its embellished... Cheer for a different team please... Talking up White Sox players bugs me... I'm a Twins Fan and Revere is good baseball and he's a Twin... Talk him up all you want.

And I would not extend him at this time.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-04-2012, 01:06 AM
.. But let's not make it sound like it was a first to third party going on. It wasn't...


Dude yes the other teams were having a "field party" or whatever sending guys from 1st to third. His arm is terrible as far as baseball is concerned, it's actually borderline embarrassing watching at times how bad it is.

That doesn't take away the fact that he has elite range and the ability to play a really strong CF, but to claim his arm isn't one of the worst of any OF in baseball is just flat out wrong. Luckily it will be masked a bit in CF, but still the weakness still remains.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-04-2012, 01:14 AM
Who wouldn't be thrilled if he could consistently hit .725-.750 OPS and bring what he brings on the basepaths in the #9 slot in the batting order?

I would be thrilled, but it isn't going to happen. Since he has zero power and thus no one will pitch around him, Revere would most likely need to hit around .330 on a regular basis in order to get even a 725 OPS, I just don't see it, unless he miraculously learns how to hit for even mediocre power/pop or someone learns to inciro the hell out of the ball for INF hits.

Outlook: Unlikely

Riverbrian
12-04-2012, 01:16 AM
.. But let's not make it sound like it was a first to third party going on. It wasn't...


Dude yes the other teams were having a "field party" or whatever sending guys from 1st to third. His arm is terrible as far as baseball is concerned, it's actually borderline embarrassing watching at times how bad it is.

That doesn't take away the fact that he has elite range and the ability to play a really strong CF, but to claim his arm isn't one of the worst of any OF in baseball is just flat out wrong. Luckily it will be masked a bit in CF, but still the weakness still remains.

Never claimed that... Never said it was the worst... But I never claimed it wasnt... I actually started with the words... "His arm is weak... No doubt". Not sure how that read differently.

I do claim that Runners were not having a field party. I saw bad throws... I did... His arm is not good... it will be the difference in a run or base on occasion... but it wasn't a field party or whatever... The impression being left is that hes personally responsible for all or most extra bases.

I've seen runners run on Francour. Runners go to third base based on where the ball is in relation to the fielder more often then they go on the guy holding the ball. If a runner goes from first to third... It is possible They were going with Parmelee, Span or Doumit in the same situation. Not all situations cuz his arm isn't that good... I get that.

Shane Wahl
12-04-2012, 01:17 AM
Although, I don't refer to 24-year-olds as "kids" (imagine if the media referred to the pre-24 soldiers in our wars as "kids") I agree with Riverbrian. Some of you seem to want to just get rid of him, which is the opposite end of the spectrum from extending for no reason. Both are ridiculous.

Shane Wahl
12-04-2012, 01:21 AM
By the way, the expectation of runners wildly taking advantage of Revere this year did fall short. He performed better than expected.

Riverbrian
12-04-2012, 01:24 AM
Although, I don't refer to 24-year-olds as "kids" (imagine if the media referred to the pre-24 soldiers in our wars as "kids") I agree with Riverbrian. Some of you seem to want to just get rid of him, which is the opposite end of the spectrum from extending for no reason. Both are ridiculous.

lol... At my age... There are lots of kids out there... Some of them kids are running Fortune 500 companies.

Riverbrian
12-04-2012, 02:07 AM
One last thing...

Twins RF held percentage... 47.5%
League Average... 45.4

Can we at least agree that Ben played the majority of RF.

if not...

Ben Revere 51.5% held in RF and 41.4% in CF.


The on base percentage slugging or OPS argument or concern is at least legit.

jokin
12-04-2012, 02:44 AM
No doubt that the Twins pitching staff gave him more chances, just as every other OF had more chances to demonstrate their abilities, thanks to pitchers for listening to their coaches about the importance of pitching to contact. :talk028:

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted as opposed to getting a running start before throwing. Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing.

Yup, I saw what you saw, the good, agressive managers had a field day on advancng 1st-3rd. I attribute that mostly to the (proper) decision to keep Span in CF for showcase/future trading value purposes, that would be much less of an issue with Revere in CF or LF. Didn't Revere have a few tag-up put outs, so that going forward and releasing in one smooth motion showed improvement?

His arm is weak... No doubt... But I seriously don't know what you guys saw... I watched the majority of games... There were times when the runner went first to third with Revere in RF... And in my opinion... Moments where they may not have attempted that on Francour... But let's not make it sound like it was a first to third party going on. It wasn't...

Its the type of statement you make when you know someone has a weak arm but they were not running wild and that is the impression you are leaving.

And let's be honest on the other side... He gets to the ball quicker and gets it in quicker... I don't care if a 4th grader is holding the ball in RF... If the ball is in his glove and the runner hasn't rounded second... He ain't going...

Serious embellishment going on here... His arm is weak... Got it... No argument... It will cost the Twins a run on occasion... No doubt... He doesn't have the Harper Hose...

The problem with these discussions as Puck pointed out. Is that it makes people draw lines in the sand... The pro Revere crowd like me end up losing our objectivity because we end up defending him... the anti or non Revere crowd end up disliking him more and yeah... I think they lose objectivity as well..

I don't want to shove Revere down anyone's throat... I shouldnt have to... hes done well... And Im trying to stop... But c'mon... He gave it and I assume he will continue to give it...

He was a first round draft pick and he was a 3rd round projection. No organization is going to reach into the 1st round unless he's knocking the ball around the park... And no team is going to reach for a pick unless they see something and think another squad saw something as well... That is why they reach... To get your guy... If Revere was showing no arm and No power he ain't going in the first round. Can we agree on that... I know some people think Terry Ryan and the front office are idiots... They are not that big of idiots... They are not taking a light hitting fast guy projected in the third round in the first... Jerrod Dyson went in the 50th round... That's where the fast guys who can't hit go... 50th round.

Was it a first round mistake? If you look back at 2007... There only a few of that class in the majors right now so I'd say no... With hindsight you could claim Frazier... d'Arnaud or Luebke may have been better choices in that slot... But with that same hindsight... 11 teams that drafted before the Twins did... they would be loving Revere instead of the guy they got.

You are also looking at a kid... 1st round pick who was not stalled in the minors for a second... Rookie... A... High A... AA... Majors... Advanced like clockwork...

He hasn't failed yet... At any level... including the majors... Whatever is thought to be wrong with him by some on this board... It didn't hold him back for a second cuz... here he is.

I,m not sure what measuring stick you are using... But a 1st round pick who advanced thru the farm with no stalling has to have value. So I'm pretty confident we have some undervaluing going on but it's clear that opinions are not going to change... So I'm really gonna try to stop now... But Like the Godfather III... Someone is gonna pull me back in.

If people talking him up is bugging you... Even if its embellished... Cheer for a different team please... Talking up White Sox players bugs me... I'm a Twins Fan and Revere is good baseball and he's a Twin... Talk him up all you want.

And I would not extend him at this time.

RB, I don't know if you were responding to me specifically or not. I was actually on your side in the debate and my position was that it wouldn't be a fatal mistake to consider extending Revere, but a low-risk way to possibly keep a guy cheap and tradeable for a bit longer and avoid an arbitration upside surprise bump somewhere down the road. The vitriol that came out against Revere based on OP/ WilliHammer's suggestion surprised me a little and I just wanted to throw a little love the way of a kid who appears to care about his career and is an asset to the community. I previously boned up on his biography and saw what you saw. His professional numbers to this point are what they are and deserve scrutiny, I just thought for a guy who hasn't embarassed himself or the club in his first two years deserved a little more respect and benefit of the doubt that he still can improve his areas of deficiency.

Regarding his arm deficiencies, I watched nearly every game as well, and my perception is the agressive-running teams did take advantage of Revere in 2012 in RF. With that said, we agree that he made major strides in efficiency with balls in front of him or parallel in returning it to the infield. He may have even increased his arm strength some, too. He clearly wasn't guilty of frequently missing cut-off men or throwing rainbows home or to the wrong bases, I guess that makes him coachable, which further suggests he can improve in other areas, as well. Too many on this board consider him a finished product, despite evidence that players can and have improved their numbers significantly heading towards the age of 30.

Your numbers regarding his held runner efficiency is good evidence in support of your case, but I would defer to Puck to point out what I'm missing in answer to your case.

I like a guy who is easy to like and appears to want to be here, on this trainwreck of a team, for the love of the game. By the same token, when/if the time comes for him to go, I understand that it's a business. Is that so wrong?

Brock Beauchamp
12-04-2012, 07:23 AM
One last thing...

Twins RF held percentage... 47.5%
League Average... 45.4

Can we at least agree that Ben played the majority of RF.

if not...

Ben Revere 51.5% held in RF and 41.4% in CF.

The on base percentage slugging or OPS argument or concern is at least legit.

I think Revere's arm is overplayed. Does it hurt the team? Sure, any weak arm in RF/CF is going to hurt the team. Is it significant enough to matter enough to use as an argument to discount his range? Probably not. I'm fine with Revere's defense; I think it's the rest of his game that will hold him back. I wish the best for the guy but I've seen too many players like him stall out in their late 20s. He's a bad bet for extension. That's all.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 08:29 AM
Ben Revere has spent parts of just three seasons in the major leagues, played in a mere 13 games in the first of those three seasons, and qualified for the batting title for the first time in 2012. Yet, he is not only the active career leader among all major leaguers in a specific department, but has a huge lead in that particular area. Ben Revere has had 1,064 major league plate appearances but has not hit a single major league home run.

To put that in context, among players who came to the plate in the majors in 2012 yet finished the year with a career home run total of zero, the next 22 highest career plate appearances totals all belong to pitchers (led by Ryan Dempster (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/792/ryan-dempster) at 688). After Revere, the next non-pitcher on that list is former Twin Tsuyoshi Nishioka, whose major league career appears to have come to an end after just 254 plate appearances. The next non-pitcher who is expected to appear in the majors in 2013 is Brewers (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/milwaukee-brewers) shortstop Jean Segura (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/108186/jean-segura), a rookie in 2012 who has just 166 major league plate appearances.

Ben Revere has not only never hit a home run in the major leagues, he has never flown out to the warning track.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 08:31 AM
'I think Revere's arm is overplayed. Does it hurt the team? Sure, any weak arm in RF/CF is going to hurt the team. Is it significant enough to matter enough to use as an argument to discount his range?' Probably not.

I agree

mike wants wins
12-04-2012, 08:34 AM
Revere may or may not turn out to be a good player, bit the only reason to extend him would be to reduce the risk of losing him because he gets too expensive. This seems to be a low risk at this point, so there is no need to sign him right now. If he gets better, then is the time to think about it.

Riverbrian
12-04-2012, 08:34 AM
I know Jokin... You and I have been on the same side.

Like I said... I'm trying to back down. My Revere man crush is getting a little over developed with each and every post. Honestly I'm not trying to build a shrine to him... He's just a young ball player... It's just that some comments allude me.... I'd like to back-er down because its just making the division deeper... But... Just when I thought I was out... They pull me back in.

This time it was Pucks comment "everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't take on real MLB arms".

Although you have supported Revere... Your post in response to that seemed to agree. So I said "you guys" in response but all in all... I've been happy that you and others have been In support. If I was the only one.. I'd be like Will Farrell running down the street in The movie Old School. I'm not and at the end of the day... We just got ourselves a difference in opinion. What we think and what some others think.

Puck's comment was flat out false and it just piles on the Ben Revere negative stereotype being built and I didn't want it to just let it get left there... Like it was remotely true. His arm is sub par but any impression that runners are flying around the bases on that arm is wrong. There have been times and there will be more times when the arm will give up a base or a run. However... Sub par arm does not mean he would do better running the ball into the infield and trying to tag the advancing runner. Ben can still throw it faster then even players of his speed can run and if he has the ball in his hand. The runner ain't going. I have also seen Ben catch the ball at the wall and throw it to first base on a hop. Granted... more air on it than most but let's not give the impression that players are heading to third at a disturbing percentage. No evidence to support that claim and its a false generalization.

i honestly don't like being this convicted on a player because there are no guarentees in baseball. Hamilton can sign for 100 million and hit .220 the rest of his life ... this Revere argument is starting to make me sound like I'm guaranteeing his place in Cooperstown and that isnt the case. i just think hes been good baseball and there is value that some dont appreciate because they like some skill he's lacking I'm guessing. I also realize that most of the detractors don't hate Ben but if this keeps up... Their convictions being challenged may end up causing more and more dislike.

I have a big mouthed opinion like many on this site and I ain't afraid to express it. However... People can check my posts. Typically... I have no problem saying "I don't know when I don't know". I go to great pains to say "I think" "I believe" in my posts to make sure that Its clear i'm expressing opinion. I try to be self deprecating because I've been wrong plenty of times and occasionally I'm pretty dead sure about what Im saying.

On the other side of the coin... We have Vodkadave saying "he will never" which is pretty definite in and out of context. I also didn't really appreciate the Vodkadave comment that you and I have a first grade knowledge of baseball and statistics and then saying he didn't mean to be harsh... also like Will Farrell in Talladega Nights with the all due respect line. Anyway... that's just his style so I'm trying to let that go... But... Obviously haven't yet since I just brought it up again.

BTW... Dave... I'm 47 years old ... I've been breathing in an unhealthy amount of baseball for almost 4 decades. From playing to coaching to umping to spending beautiful summer nights inside watching and reading and rainy nights outside trying to get a field ready to play. There are plenty of people who know more about the game in the whole wide world than I do including a bunch of folks on this site. It is after all... Just a quirky passion of mine. But I think I'm past the 1st grade level.

Lets not confuse my 1st grade punctuation level for some kinda of baseball knowledge deficiency because we disagree on something. As for understanding metrics. OK... If you say so. I hope to get to 2nd grade someday. Be patient with me.

One last thing... I don't know if it occurs to the posters of Twins Daily. But I'm guessing that Twins players read this forum. I'm sure some stay away from it and they are smart if they do... but it's not far fetched to think that some are drawn to the "what are they saying about me now". Insecurities that we all have.

In my opinion... It's Ok to have honest discussion of skill sets but keep in mind that this is the internet. These ain't private discussions. The nasty mean comments lack taste and a bunch of other social graces.

twinsnorth49
12-04-2012, 08:48 AM
One last thing...

Twins RF held percentage... 47.5%
League Average... 45.4

Can we at least agree that Ben played the majority of RF.

if not...

Ben Revere 51.5% held in RF and 41.4% in CF.

The on base percentage slugging or OPS argument or concern is at least legit.

I think Revere's arm is overplayed. Does it hurt the team? Sure, any weak arm in RF/CF is going to hurt the team. Is it significant enough to matter enough to use as an argument to discount his range? Probably not. I'm fine with Revere's defense; I think it's the rest of his game that will hold him back. I wish the best for the guy but I've seen too many players like him stall out in their late 20s. He's a bad bet for extension. That's all.

Agree with this 100%, the weak arm angle is way overplayed, I watch just about every game and didn't see nearly as many "parties" going on between 1st and 3rd, it's being greatly exaggerated, sorry.

He's a classic flame out type player though, there is a laundry list of guys who profile just like him that came before and ended up in the "I can't run as fast anymore" trash heap. I don't see much point in extending at this point, love to watch him play at times for now.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 08:56 AM
'Puck's comment was flat out false and it just piles on the Ben Revere negative stereotype being built and I didn't want it to just let it get left there... Like it was remotely true. His arm is sub par but any impression that runners are flying around the bases on that arm is wrong. There have been times and there will be more times when the arm will give up a base or a run. However... Sub par arm does not mean he would do better running the ball into the infield and trying to tag the advancing runner. Ben can still throw it faster then even players of his speed can run and if he has the ball in his hand. The runner ain't going. I have also seen Ben catch the ball at the wall and throw it to first base on a hop. Granted... more air on it than most but let's not give the impression that players are heading to third at a disturbing percentage. No evidence to support that claim and its a false generalization.'

You make it sound like I'm purposely throwing false info out there to dog him. I watched the games too and that's what it seemed like to me. If there's evidence to support that my impression is wrong, and it seems there is from what you've posted, that's fine. But don't act as if I threw stuff out there knowing it was wrong just to dog him. I don't have any agenda when it comes to him. I want them all to be good players. I was just pointing out what it looked like to me. I'm not the first or last guy whose eyes have deceived him. His arm seems to me to be the weakest in baseball...from what I've seen. Whether that's true or not who knows, but it's damn weak

I appreciate the info you posted. It's good to see. Makes me feel better about him out there.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-04-2012, 09:10 AM
BTW... Dave... I'm 47 years old ... I've been breathing in an unhealthy amount of baseball for almost 4 decades. From playing to coaching to umping to spending beautiful summer nights inside watching and reading and rainy nights outside trying to get a field ready to play. There are plenty of people who know more about the game in the whole wide world than I do including a bunch of folks on this site. It is after all... Just a quirky passion of mine. But I think I'm past the 1st grade level.

Lets not confuse my 1st grade punctuation level for some kinda of baseball knowledge deficiency because we disagree on something. As for understanding metrics. OK... If you say so. I hope to get to 2nd grade someday. Be patient with me.

One last thing... I don't know if it occurs to the posters of Twins Daily. But I'm guessing that Twins players read this forum. I'm sure some stay away from it and they are smart if they do... but it's not far fetched to think that some are drawn to the "what are they saying about me now". Insecurities that we all have.

In my opinion... It's Ok to have honest discussion of skill sets but keep in mind that this is the internet. These ain't private discussions. The nasty mean comments lack taste and a bunch of other social graces.

I'm not sure why you are getting so sensitive to me disagree with you, I never said anything about your baseball knowledge or anything like that. If I made you think that then I apologize.

You say I am trashing Ben Revere or whatever or being mean and I disagree. The fact is, I see him as a 4th OF moving forward (a very good 4th OF for what its worth) who should be able to stick in the league a long time, Juan Pierre has plenty of value as well, he's just better suited to not be in your lineup every day like Revere.

We can disagree all day on how important Revere's arm is, but from what I have seen, read etc he has the weakest arm of any OF in baseball. I don't see how he suddenly is going to improve at this point, I always thought in the minors they should have tried to switch him to 2B because of this (and the lack of 'pop'). Also I am not saying arm is an end all be all for OF's. But it does matter, teams were running all over Revere in RF because he literally has to hit the cutoff man who is further out in the OF then I have ever seen.

Now with that said, he does have elite range and excellent speed, moving him to CF actually helps his range/speed outshine/hide his arm even more. Do I think he is a perfectly fine stop gap for a year or two on a rebuilding team? Sure. I just don't see him ever becoming a legit major league starter because as I mentioned before, he will need to hit for a .330 average in order to get to that .725 OPS range.

If you think that is me "trashing him" or you are worried that he might read this and get hurt feelings or whatever I think you need to be slightly less sensitive. I'm sure Ben Revere is well aware of his arm deficiencies and his inability to hit for power.

I have no problem with "the kid" and hope he proves me wrong, I think he is looking at a long career ahead of him in the majors at this point anyways. I have never said he doesn't belong on the team, nor have said he doesn't belong in the league. He will have a Juan Pierre type career IMO and that isn't a bad thing. At this point however I think it would be a mistake to count on him long term as a starter on this team, especially with so many potentially superior options in our system: Hicks, Arcia, Rosario (if he moves back to CF), Buxton, Keppler. Benson?

I also think if they get an offer for a pitcher that can help moving forward they need to trade him because of two things:
1. I don't think he is able to match last years numbers offensively, he struggled quite a bit down the stretch as teams began to make adjustments to him. If you aren't a risk to even hit doubles, teams are going to move the OF in and you will see zero walks.
2. They have a ton of depth for OF, and absurd amount of depth in the minors for CF. If you can use Revere to fill other holes, you gotta pull the trigger. One of the Twins in house guys can match his production by the end of the year no doubt.

Just stop taking it so personally...

Riverbrian
12-04-2012, 09:39 AM
For clairification on my diatribe.

My Comment to you Puck was simply my correction of Puck's everybody and their brothers assertion. This is just my opinion but I believfe it's possible that some are assuming this because Ben's arm is sub-par. I hold no ill will against you persoanlly... you are a smart guy and I enjoy your posts.

My Comment to you Vodkadave was only in reference to your 1st grade level comment. I also enjoy your posts and hold no ill will against you personally. I don't disagree with your sentiments entirely on Ben... You are right on many things about Ben. I think wrong on some but none of us are right yet... I think it's possible that we look at ball players differently.

The Part about players reading this site... Was not directed at you. It was directed to anyone who forgets or doesn't realize it... I typed a lot of words and didn't properly seperate that section of my long post.


The only thing I took personally was the 1st grade level thing.

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-04-2012, 09:59 AM
For clairification on my diatribe.

My Comment to you Puck was simply my correction of Puck's everybody and their brothers assertion. This is just my opinion but I believfe it's possible that some are assuming this because Ben's arm is sub-par. I hold no ill will against you persoanlly... you are a smart guy and I enjoy your posts.

My Comment to you Vodkadave was only in reference to your 1st grade level comment. I also enjoy your posts and hold no ill will against you personally. I don't disagree with your sentiments entirely on Ben... You are right on many things about Ben. I think wrong on some but none of us are right yet... I think it's possible that we look at ball players differently.

The Part about players reading this site... Was not directed at you. It was directed to anyone who forgets or doesn't realize it... I typed a lot of words and didn't properly seperate that section of my long post.


The only thing I took personally was the 1st grade level thing.

That wasn't even directed at you: Here is the whole quote:

the day Revere proves he can hit for even a .700 OPS (Which is still on the "way below average end of the spectrum for OF's) then maybe we can think about having this conversation. Until then, he is nothing more then a 4th OF, or a stop gap CF on a 90 loss type team.

Anyone who argues otherwise on the basis of "He is exciting!!" or whatever doesn't have the faintest idea of how baseball works and understands statistics at a 1st grade level. Not trying to be harsh, but it's the truth.

Maybe it was a little "harsh" but IMO the fact remains that nothing Revere has done to this point has shown me that he can even sustain a .700 OPS at the major league level, which IMO would be still be on the very low end of what would be "acceptable" for a starting OF. Even less so on a competitive team.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 10:34 AM
OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.

One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.

Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-elite-speed-measured-in-wins/) is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.

The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.

There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 10:55 AM
OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.

One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.

Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-elite-speed-measured-in-wins/) is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.

The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.

There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.

Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?

Brock Beauchamp
12-04-2012, 11:17 AM
OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.

One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.

Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-elite-speed-measured-in-wins/) is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.

The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.

There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 11:27 AM
Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?

I have now. Its a good read but James is hung up on the stat itself and ignoring the broader skill of good baserunning that good basestealers tend to be. First to third, first to home, 2nd to home, tagging on short pop flies, etc. These are all peanut skills in an of themselves but when you can do all of them, and steal 50-60 bases when given full playing time, the peanuts add up quickly. There is also the fact that the Twins are among the worst teams at hitting home runs in an era when homeruns are trending down leaguewide.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 11:54 AM
Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?

I have now. Its a good read but James is hung up on the stat itself and ignoring the broader skill of good baserunning that good basestealers tend to be. First to third, first to home, 2nd to home, tagging on short pop flies, etc. These are all peanut skills in an of themselves but when you can do all of them, and steal 50-60 bases when given full playing time, the peanuts add up quickly. There is also the fact that the Twins are among the worst teams at hitting home runs in an era when homeruns are trending down leaguewide.

I'm not sure Revere is quite the good baserunner yet, even with his speed. Saw him take a good lead at 1B, the batter had two strikes and there were two outs (so, he should have know he was off at the crack of the bat), the ball was a clear, no doubt double bouncing all the way to the LF wall (so he would have seen that on his way to 2B). The batter/runner glided into 2B and Revere ended up on 3rd. With his speed he should have cruised into home.

He has some work to do and he needs to work on getting on-base at a better clip.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 12:13 PM
Baseball Reference tracks situation baserunning. Revere is above average in every respect

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01-bat.shtml

comparison to league average.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2012-baserunning-batting.shtml

Fangraphs measures the baserunning value at 14 runs over the past two years, playing 120 games/season.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 12:28 PM
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

FrodaddyG
12-04-2012, 12:34 PM
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.
And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 12:46 PM
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

I wanna see how he does upon his return to the leadoff spot...where he'll likely see less fastballs. Again, his power is non-existent, so his OBP needs to be significantly higher than average. If he becomes a #9 hitter, and he won't yet, might not for awhile, that makes it even less important to extend him

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 12:49 PM
And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here.

Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 12:58 PM
Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

SpiritofVodkaDave
12-04-2012, 01:04 PM
he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

If by a little batted ball luck you mean an increase of 100+ points in OPS over night then you are correct.

I still tend to think WAR gives to much credit to defense and base running, (especially defense at a non premium position like OF) so WAR shouldn't be as a stand alone IMO

Kwak
12-04-2012, 01:17 PM
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.
Once you introduce Hicks into the discussion you have negated the need to extend Revere. By your own words you classify Revere as a #9 batter and Hicks as a #1 batter--who will average nearly a full plate appearance more than a #9 batter--and clearly is more important.

Kwak
12-04-2012, 01:21 PM
And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here.

Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.
Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 01:29 PM
Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

This is a somewhat circular argument. Part of the reason Mauer batted well with runners on base last year is that the guys in front of him were speedy. Mauer had a .288 BABIP on ground balls, in part because the mere threat of having Span or Revere standing on 1st created a nice hole for him on the 2nd base side. Then there is the fact that Span and Revere both run 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, 2nd to home at a rate higher than league average.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 01:34 PM
Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.

Revere isn't any fast guy. He's the fastest player in baseball over the last two years, if you put any stock in fangraphs baserunning and defensive metrics. And no, bringing Hicks into the discussion doesn't cancel anything. Where guys bat in the order tends to be overblown. I would only call him a 9 hitter inasmuch as it might be favorable for the Twins in a contract negotiation.

ThePuck
12-04-2012, 01:38 PM
Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

This is a somewhat circular argument. Part of the reason Mauer batted well with runners on base last year is that the guys in front of him were speedy. Mauer had a .288 BABIP on ground balls, in part because the mere threat of having Span or Revere standing on 1st created a nice hole for him on the 2nd base side. Then there is the fact that Span and Revere both run 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, 2nd to home at a rate higher than league average.

Mauer has always batted well with RISP. .343/.460/.498 for his career. And a runner on 1st base isn't considered a batting opportunity with RISP

jun
12-04-2012, 02:35 PM
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

My opinion is no teams in the MLB would extend a #9 hitter. Is he really that important? He is not going to get faster as he gets older. That's his only asset!

TheLeviathan
12-04-2012, 03:38 PM
Good god....this thread is still going? Regardless of what Ben Revere is or is not - extending guys with roughly 2 years of service time is not a good idea. It is almost never done and for good reasons, all of which have been laid out ad nauseum.

The fact that Revere has many question marks as a starter long term only bolsters what is already a definitively bad idea.

Brock Beauchamp
12-04-2012, 03:59 PM
Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

.350 is good, .360 or higher is better.

But really, I want a guy who isn't so reliant on BABIP so I look at BB%. 8% is pretty good, 9-10% is better. Span walked around 8.5% of the time last season, I believe. Mauer was almost at 14%, IIRC. Revere was around 5%. That's bad.

And as others have mentioned, you don't worry about extending your #9 hitter.

Willihammer
12-04-2012, 05:42 PM
To me, its more a question of when, not if. Between Revere's speed and his ability to put the ball in play, he could post a .340 BABIP or higher in any given season like Pierre has, and Span has, in which case he becomes that .350 OBP, 4-5 win player, and a lot more expensive.

snepp
12-04-2012, 06:46 PM
To me, its more a question of when, not if. Between Revere's speed and his ability to put the ball in play, he could post a .340 BABIP or higher in any given season like Pierre has, and Span has, in which case he becomes that .350 OBP, 4-5 win player, and a lot more expensive.

And then you cash that chip in, deal him to someone else, and let them pay.