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Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 08:40 AM
I think it's a little early to write the Royal's great system off. It's taking longer than SOME expected but that is an organization that has a lot of talent. Unfortunately none of the young pitchers have worked out.

No, it's definitely too early to write them off entirely but the Royals should be a shining example of why burning down the franchise and rebuilding with prospects can be a mistake. The Royals did nothing wrong; they drafted smartly, traded smartly, and put together a stellar farm system... One of the best we've seen in baseball in two decades.

And what has that gotten them? So far, a whole lot of nothing. If a team can draft that well and build a minor league system that strong and still accomplish nothing at the Major League level, why should the Twins follow suit?

Top Gun
11-30-2012, 08:47 AM
So when we throw in the towel, all we got left is prospects. Mighty team you got us to watch!

mike wants wins
11-30-2012, 08:55 AM
My wife asked last night why teams always traded stars for prospects.....I pointed out that if she lived in other cities, sometimes you would see stars come here, like on the other side of the Twins trades....that is how the casual fan sees the Twins, always trading good players away.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 08:56 AM
So when we throw in the towel, all we got left is prospects. Mighty team you got us to watch!

Trading an outfielder when you have four outfielders on the current roster and two breakout outfielders in AA does not qualify as "throwing in the towel". That's called "smart management". Use a surplus to fill a need. Most of us liked Span and wish he was still on the team but at the end of the day, he was the most expendable player with a high enough value to get what the Twins wanted in return.

Alex
11-30-2012, 08:56 AM
One thing is clear from this trade, and that's what Span's actual value is to GMs around the league. Those thinking that he was going to get a young but MLB ready mid-front of the rotation starter are disappointed. I'm actually surprised he got the pitching prospect he did as I didn't think he'd be valued enough to get even that. He might have been able to get an older, more expensive starter that would have been solid for the Twins, but that wouldn't have made sense.

So, from my perspective, assuming they got the best young player they were offered, I think this was a solid trade from that alone. Provided they also use that $4M on more pitching, I think it's a good move for the Twins. Additional benefits are that it frees up spaces for other players to get at-bats, we assume Parmelee right away but also more time for some of those young OF that might get called up later this season.

That said, I think it's a fair perspective to say that if that's the best offer they got, they should have kept Span. I don't agree, but I think it's a fair perspective.

What I don't think is fair, or realistic, are the opinions I've heard more from fans at large but a bit less here, is that what the Twins and Ryan "should" have gotten for Span (IE "A middle infielder AND a prospect, a young ML ready front of the rotation starter). From the rumors it sounds like the Twins were asking for more, but teams weren't willing to pay it. Span just wasn't worth what those folks thought -- that's not really Ryan's fault.

kab21
11-30-2012, 09:03 AM
So when we throw in the towel, all we got left is prospects. Mighty team you got us to watch!

This is precisely why you don't do a complete firesale and get rid of everyone that is somewhat old. It's also why the Twins should go after some mid tier FA's this winter. At the same time you try to trade your most valuable players that will be gone in 1-3 yrs to add to the farm system.

I really hate how the Royals constantly get brought up as a reason not to rebuild. Despite being terrible and having high draft picks they had terrible farm systems until recently and they have made almost zero competent moves involving MLB players.

Top Gun
11-30-2012, 09:26 AM
I say load up on one top tier FA every year. Then you got yourself a team.

gunnarthor
11-30-2012, 09:30 AM
For 2013, this makes the major league team significantly worse than they were at the end of the season. I'm not very confident that Ryan will put together a rotation that will both improve on the 2012 version and compensate for the loss of Span.

With that in mind I really think they should trade off some more players. The 2013 Twins have been all but mathematically eliminated.

I don't think the team will be significantly worse. Much of Span's value came from defense and Revere will surpass that. Offensively, it allows us to potentially put a power bat in RF (Parmelee will get first shot but Plouffe and/or Hicks/Arcia will probably get looks there too).

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 09:30 AM
I say load up on one top tier FA every year. Then you got yourself a team.

It's one way of building a really expensive team, that's for sure. Even the Yankees can't survive on free agents alone; trying to do just that was the main reason they failed to win a World Series for almost a decade.

ericchri
11-30-2012, 09:44 AM
I'm torn. Span was my favorite Twin, and I hoped we could do a little better in trade, but they got the kind of thing back I was hoping for. A starting pitcher prospect with a high upside. We desperately needed some of those in the system. BJ Hermsen may be a contributor to the team some day but he can't be one of your top prospects at the position, he just doesn't appear to have much upside. The Twins are unlikely to ever "buy" a top-tier starter from FA, so if they're ever going to have some it's going to be by developing them from prospects.

Boom Boom
11-30-2012, 09:44 AM
For 2013, this makes the major league team significantly worse than they were at the end of the season. I'm not very confident that Ryan will put together a rotation that will both improve on the 2012 version and compensate for the loss of Span.

With that in mind I really think they should trade off some more players. The 2013 Twins have been all but mathematically eliminated.

I don't think the team will be significantly worse. Much of Span's value came from defense and Revere will surpass that. Offensively, it allows us to potentially put a power bat in RF (Parmelee will get first shot but Plouffe and/or Hicks/Arcia will probably get looks there too).

It's not like Revere should have had a death grip on RF last year in the first place. The Twins could have put either Parmelee or Plouffe out there last year.

So defensively, the outfield is substantially worse. Offensively, you're trading Span for Parmelee. Plouffe was in the lineup already anyways.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-30-2012, 09:47 AM
For 2013, this makes the major league team significantly worse than they were at the end of the season. I'm not very confident that Ryan will put together a rotation that will both improve on the 2012 version and compensate for the loss of Span.

With that in mind I really think they should trade off some more players. The 2013 Twins have been all but mathematically eliminated.

I don't think the team will be significantly worse. Much of Span's value came from defense and Revere will surpass that. Offensively, it allows us to potentially put a power bat in RF (Parmelee will get first shot but Plouffe and/or Hicks/Arcia will probably get looks there too).

It's not like Revere should have had a death grip on RF last year in the first place. The Twins could have put either Parmelee or Plouffe out there last year.

So defensively, the outfield is substantially worse. Offensively, you're trading Span for Parmelee. Plouffe was in the lineup already anyways.

It's worse, but not as bad as some people are making it out to be.

Revere in CF >>>>>>>>>>>>> Span in CF

As long as Parmelee can hold his own (I see no reason why he can't) the Twins should be fine out there.

Boom Boom
11-30-2012, 09:51 AM
For 2013, this makes the major league team significantly worse than they were at the end of the season. I'm not very confident that Ryan will put together a rotation that will both improve on the 2012 version and compensate for the loss of Span.

With that in mind I really think they should trade off some more players. The 2013 Twins have been all but mathematically eliminated.

I don't think the team will be significantly worse. Much of Span's value came from defense and Revere will surpass that. Offensively, it allows us to potentially put a power bat in RF (Parmelee will get first shot but Plouffe and/or Hicks/Arcia will probably get looks there too).

It's not like Revere should have had a death grip on RF last year in the first place. The Twins could have put either Parmelee or Plouffe out there last year.

So defensively, the outfield is substantially worse. Offensively, you're trading Span for Parmelee. Plouffe was in the lineup already anyways.

It's worse, but not as bad as some people are making it out to be.

Revere in CF >>>>>>>>>>>>> Span in CF

As long as Parmelee can hold his own (I see no reason why he can't) the Twins should be fine out there.

I'll agree that Revere is a better defensive center fielder than Span, but not >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> better.

I'm just making the point that losing Span and getting no major league players for him makes the 2013 major league team worse than they were at the end of the season.

Riverbrian
11-30-2012, 09:51 AM
Let's not get lost in the plight of the Royals and say this rebuilding thing is garbage. Can any of the "Royals example people" say that we don't want the products of the Royals Farm. Would you disapointed if Perez showed up in a Twins uniform... Hosmer, Moose, Butler, Gordon are fine examples of a thriving farm system. We'd love to have Colon in our system. Even with our outfield Glut... We'd love to have Wil Myers.

The Royals have failed so far for a couple of reasons in my mind.

A. Pitching... The Royals have never had a decent pitching staff during this entire run of bad luck. Who are the pitching prospects that have born fruit. Odorizzi, Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer haven't arrived yet. The Majority of Arms from the Farm with the big club are bullpen guys. That's why they are talking about trading Wil Myers and names like Lester and Shields are popping up. If they acquire Lester or Shields... That's a product of the Farm System as well.

B. Front Office... The Royals are overstocked on the Farm and the Front Office hasn't yet traded the excess for Major League Talent(PItching). It's one thing to stock your farm... It's another thing to not harvest it in the many ways that you can harvest it.

C. The Royals can hit... They can't pitch... Playing from behind sucks... No Vibe yet with the club when you are playing from behind.

Don't think for a second that the Royals can't be one of those teams that comes out of nowhere and surprises you. I won't be surprised when it happens... Others will but I won't.

Like the Twins... They need Pitching and they need it bad. Acquiring pitching is how you fix it.

I won't write them off and the Barbecue is great in Kansas City BTW.

Also... If you are going to use the Royals as an example... Please try to consider using the Rays as an example as well. It's only fair.

kab21
11-30-2012, 09:52 AM
Parmelee might start the season in RF but Hicks or Arcia will end the season there. I can also almost guarantee that one of Mauer/Morneau/Doumit/Willingham/Parmelee will be injured at some point freeing Parmelee to play DH/1B.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-30-2012, 09:53 AM
Revere/Hicks OF would be freaking awesome.

Alex
11-30-2012, 10:09 AM
It's not like Revere should have had a death grip on RF last year in the first place. The Twins could have put either Parmelee or Plouffe out there last year.

So defensively, the outfield is substantially worse. Offensively, you're trading Span for Parmelee. Plouffe was in the lineup already anyways.

It's easy to forget because of what he did late in the season, but Parmelee wasn't playing well early in the year. Revere needed at-bats as well and had done more to deserve a more permanent promotion. Revere was hitting well much of the season, so I think he had earned it for the full season. Revere was also the safer bet because his defense would have made up somewhat for a lack of offense and can play any OF position. Parmelee has no such fallback or utility (yes he can play 1B, but so can Doumit and Mauer).

jun
11-30-2012, 10:56 AM
Here's why Meyer is a much better return than Mike Leake. Mike Leake has no more upside than what he's shown, and if Meyer doesn't pan out, you can find FAs who are basically as good as Leake. Top prospects for average guys when you're a losing team is absolutely the most cost-efficient and talent-optimal way to do business. And I really dislike Terry Ryan.

Top prospects for average guys? Are you out of your mind? Span is an average guy? He is one of the best lead off hitters in the league and he plays good defense. He is incredibly cheap. He is our best trading chip. Morneau is way too expensive. Hamilton cannot play defense.

Riverbrian
11-30-2012, 11:04 AM
I will never understand it... There are people who seem to hate (maybe too strong a word) Revere but love Billy Hamilton.

Revere has things to work on... But he can play.

If Hicks is what people say he is. When he arrives... The OF pairing of Hicks and Revere will be a thing of a beauty.

With the Pitching staff that we had in 2012. Span in Between Parmelee and Willingham or Doumit and Willingham would have been terrible.

If Arcia and Hicks come up this year and out play Ben. Great for us... Until they do... It's Ben's Job and he earned it. I will never understand why Ben is a problem.

Trading Span we took a step back in Outfield defense... But the step back is only for awhile cuz Hicks is knocking on the door. When Hicks arrives... Our OF will be stronger... If Hicks is what people say he is...

Meanwhile we gained a high ceiling Pitcher who could "God Willing" help us shore up the biggest organizational problem period. Maybe not now but Soon enough. Meyer is 22 and there is nothing above him to block him from advancing quickly. All he has to do is Pitch like some people think he can.

I'll never understand the Revere fear that exists with some on this board.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 11:09 AM
I'll never understand the Revere fear that exists with some on this board.

It's because players like Revere tend to have short careers that end brutally. I'm not against Revere as a stopgap; what I'm against is having him through his late 20s and then paying him a bunch of money just as he falls on his face (see Figgins, Chone). The Twins can keep Revere for a year or two but if they're smart, they'll ditch him the moment his value is high and they have someone else to play the position.

Riverbrian
11-30-2012, 11:12 AM
Quick Question for all...

Can anybody think of a player that hasn't been drug threw the mud on this website. I believe every single Twins Player has been tarnished in some way by the posters on this site.

Mauer... Too Big A Contract... not enough Power... Too tall for Catcher.
Morneau... Concussions... Best days are behind him... Too Big a Contract.
Carroll... Too Old... Too Light Hitting.
Florimon... Can't make the routine play consistenly... Cast off by other teams... Can't hit...
Plouffe... one good month... Can't field... Inconsistent throws... Poor Plate discipline...
Willingham... Career year... Too Old and will obviously regress... Strikes out too much... no range in the OF...
Span... No Power... Weak Arm... Injury Prone...
Revere... no Power... Slap Hitting... Weak Arm...

I don't need to go on... Everyone can surely recognize this stuff... We've been reading it...

Everyone of these weaknesses is played up like it's costing us the championship and we can't win until someone else is brought in. My Point is that the perfect players are very few and they make a ton of money or they will very soon. As soon as they make a ton of money... That becomes a negative and they will be tossed under the bus like everyone else.

The Twins have flaws and so does every other team.

Riverbrian
11-30-2012, 11:17 AM
I'll never understand the Revere fear that exists with some on this board.

It's because players like Revere tend to have short careers that end brutally. I'm not against Revere as a stopgap; what I'm against is having him through his late 20s and then paying him a bunch of money just as he falls on his face (see Figgins, Chone). The Twins can keep Revere for a year or two but if they're smart, they'll ditch him the moment his value is high and they have someone else to play the position.

They might do that but not today... We got OF'ers on the way... Ben can hear the footsteps behind him. Until then... We are lucky to have him. He's not a problem on this squad at all. The only way you can make him be a problem is by wishing he has a Ryan Braun skill set. That isn't fair... And wishing he has a Billy Hamilton skill set is comical cuz he does.

Alex
11-30-2012, 11:20 AM
I'll never understand the Revere fear that exists with some on this board.

It's because players like Revere tend to have short careers that end brutally. I'm not against Revere as a stopgap; what I'm against is having him through his late 20s and then paying him a bunch of money just as he falls on his face (see Figgins, Chone). The Twins can keep Revere for a year or two but if they're smart, they'll ditch him the moment his value is high and they have someone else to play the position.

I like Revere, but I'd agree he has his drawbacks. He slugs below .700, and his OBP needs to improve. I'd choose Span over him for sure, but as mentioned, it's less about him than it is about depth in the outfield behind him.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-30-2012, 11:23 AM
I'll never understand the Revere fear that exists with some on this board.

It's because players like Revere tend to have short careers that end brutally. I'm not against Revere as a stopgap; what I'm against is having him through his late 20s and then paying him a bunch of money just as he falls on his face (see Figgins, Chone). The Twins can keep Revere for a year or two but if they're smart, they'll ditch him the moment his value is high and they have someone else to play the position.

I like Revere, but I'd agree he has his drawbacks. He slugs below .700, and his OBP needs to improve. I'd choose Span over him for sure, but as mentioned, it's less about him than it is about depth in the outfield behind him.


Did you really expect Revere to hit 40 doubles and 10 home runs?

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-30-2012, 11:26 AM
So when we throw in the towel, all we got left is prospects. Mighty team you got us to watch!

Did you really expect the Twins to be a playoff contender and win 90 games? If you did.....you need get some help.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-30-2012, 11:28 AM
Late to the party here tonight, but I'll chime in that this is the kind of trade I was hoping for - a high ceiling pitcher in exchange for an average MLB-proven CFer. I was kind of hoping for a second prospect (maybe in exchange for a throw-in by the Twins), but this is OK. As always, I have no fundamental insight into prospects so as armchair GM I have to trust "my" scouts on the choice of the pitcher to trade for.

The loss of Span frees up a little money that can be spent (with money already earmarked) on pitching to keep 2013-14 from being a disaster that would harm cashflow for when they are ready to compete again in 2015 or so. Should be an interesting winter, with this as the opening salvo.

Salvo #2 hot off the wires at MLBTradeRumors:

In an interview with 1500 ESPN Twin Cities radio (via Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Twins_view_righthander_Alex_Meyer_as_a_potential_f rontline_starter112912)), Twins assistant GM Rob Antony said his team will likely pursue free agents over trades at the Winter Meetings. "We probably don't have a lot of pieces that we do have to trade for starting pitching [with Denard Span (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com) now gone]," Antony said. "We'll probably be a little more aggressive and spend our time at the winter meetings talking to agents rather than clubs."


This could get interesting............................or it could mean Joe Saunders and that other Myers guy is their definition of "a little more agressive".



Yeap Joe Saunders, Marcum, and Myers here we come. And honestly I wouldnt mind that at all. If they turn out to be decent and our team is still horrible we can just flip at the deadline for a few prospects.

Top Gun
11-30-2012, 12:14 PM
Yes I do expect the Twins to win every year. I do not expect the money that we have freed up to go to line the owners pockets.when we get the extra 25M, Maybe let Justin go, then Winny, then Perk, then Mauer, the new ball park. I do not expect the Twins to be the Marlins. I did expect to get Alot more help than that for Span, But I can live with the Meyes trade. If we spend that money and put a better produce on the field this year and every year. I expect winning baseball, a mlb team every year.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-30-2012, 12:23 PM
Yes I do expect the Twins to win every year. I do not expect the money that we have freed up to go to line the owners pockets.when we get the extra 25M, Maybe let Justin go, then Winny, then Perk, then Mauer, the new ball park. I do not expect the Twins to be the Marlins. I did expect to get Alot more help than that for Span, But I can live with the Meyes trade. If we spend that money and put a better produce on the field this year and every year. I expect winning baseball, a mlb team every year.

There is nothing wrong with thinking the Twins will win every year. Just look at this team though.....They likely arent goingtogo after pitchers that we(the people at Twinsdaily) Are all saying they should go after. Pohlad fleeced the state of MN, and no its pocketing all that money. He will then sign former 15 minutes of fame pitcher Byung-yung Kim and say hey what do you mean im not spending any money? I would love if the Twins sign 2-3 big name pitchers but its just not the TWINS WAY.

Alex
11-30-2012, 12:32 PM
Did you really expect Revere to hit 40 doubles and 10 home runs?

Not sure what you're getting at.

No, I don't really expect that of him, but that's why I said he has his drawbacks (referring to why people are critical of him). In 553 PA, he had 13 doubles...I've got no problems with him replacing Span for now, but I'd like more than a .700 OPS out of an outfielder and hitting .294, he should have a better OBP than he's got. I think he can hold down a starting spot on the Twins as they currently stand. Whether he's something you want long term out there may be another question, but his defense and at least acceptable bat allowed for the Twins to get something out of Span and not throw in the towel for next year (as some are saying they've done).

Top Gun
11-30-2012, 12:35 PM
I do not hate the Polhads, or Ryan or Gardy, but I do expect them to get us a very good major league starting pitcher. Maybe even two. I expect mlb pitchers on the field. I expect Gardy to run a tight ship. Not shovelin waiver wire falley in and out. You can't fool the fans, you lose the customer.

ashburyjohn
11-30-2012, 01:20 PM
He slugs below .700

Most guys not named Barry Bonds do. (OK, OK, you just made a typo and meant OPS.)


and his OBP needs to improve.

Ironically, a lack of SLG likely affects the OBP. Without power, he surely faces more pitches in the strike zone, since his opponents will think "why risk walking him, if he gets a hit he's only on first base anyway." I'm sure stats exist that confirm or disprove that guess. Admittedly, guys like Jamey Carroll have the same profile and do manage to work pitchers for some walks, so Ben would do well to pick Jamey's brain, but I have to believe there's a limit when you absolutely won't hit it over the fence when the pitch is down the middle and even ringing doubles are scarce.

Honestly, with his speed he should be getting doubles just through hustle, so it's evident that the ball is coming off his bat so weakly that no pitcher has to fear giving him pitches in the strike zone.

Span is no masher, but demonstrates enough power that pitchers must be careful, and his OBP reflects this, making him a very valuable major league hitter.


I'd choose Span over him for sure, but as mentioned, it's less about him than it is about depth in the outfield behind him.

Exactly. This isn't like the AJ trade that was made in order to get an even better player into the lineup. This is to accept a hopefully small downgrade at one position in exchange for a larger upgrade elsewhere - in this case the "where" being "elsed" is also along the time dimension as well as the playing position.

Dilligaf69
11-30-2012, 02:02 PM
This is the kind of trade with which I trust Terry Ryan. Trading an established guy for a lower level minor league guy with some upside. I don't know if Meyer is more than a "C" prospect at this point, and his real test should come when he gets to AA next year, but that may be why he's available.

I am disappointed that the Twins didn't get any pitching or middle infielders to help them next year.


I just think people tended to overvalue Span, especially the last couple yrs with his injuries. After 2009 I think you would have gotten much more for him obviously but with his injuries in 2011/12 he's been really an avg player. He has very little power thus doesn't drive in alot of runs and has hit .300 once. I think this is about what you could expect to get. I'm OK with this trade.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 02:08 PM
I just think people tended to overvalue Span, especially the last couple yrs with his injuries. After 2009 I think you would have gotten much more for him obviously but with his injuries in 2011/12 he's been really an avg player. He has very little power thus doesn't drive in alot of runs and has hit .300 once. I think this is about what you could expect to get. I'm OK with this trade.

I'd argue that you're underrating him by looking at all the wrong stats. The injuries are definitely a concern and that's what drove down Denard's price... But it doesn't matter if he hit .300 or .280. RBIs are mostly irrelevant for any hitter but they're completely irrelevant for a leadoff man. He gets on base 36% of the time. He plays good defense at an up-the-middle position. That's what you want from your leadoff guy, batting average be damned.

Plus, once he's away from Target Field, I expect to see his slugging percentage go up a fair amount as 3-5 more balls leave the park off his bat.

amjgt
11-30-2012, 02:09 PM
For me, I guess the trade boils down to a couple key things....

a) I don't think Denard is that great of a leadoff hitter. If my leadoff hitter is going to hit 280 without much power and without a particularly high BB rate, he damn sure better be a terror on the bases. (See: Revere, Ben). Denard had many more doubles than Revere, but how many of Revere's singles did he turn into doubles with a SB? The answer is, Revere basically made up the difference in doubles with his +31 vs +11 on the bases (and at a more sustainable success rate). Other than doubles (advantage, Span) and SB (advantage, Revere) they were almost identical offensively.

b) I don't know what the defensive metrics say, but I know that my eyes tell me that Revere is a much better CF that Span is.

c) Revere costs about 10% of what Span costs (as does the person that will move into the OF to replace Span)

d) There was no realistic path towards playoff contention in 2013.

e) Almost all non-pitching prospects in the organization project as outfielders.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 02:18 PM
For me, I guess the trade boils down to a couple key things....

a) I don't think Denard is that great of a leadoff hitter. If my leadoff hitter is going to hit 280 without much power and without a particularly high BB rate, he damn sure better be a terror on the bases. (See: Revere, Ben). Denard had many more doubles than Revere, but how many of Revere's singles did he turn into doubles with a SB? The answer is, Revere basically made up the difference in doubles with his +31 vs +11 on the bases (and at a more sustainable success rate). Other than doubles (advantage, Span) and SB (advantage, Revere) they were almost identical offensively.

Denard and Ben had nearly the same number of PAs in 2012. Denard took about 25 more total bases than Revere (not the stat, actual bases). This is using Total Bases (on hits) + Walks + HBP + SB - CS. Revere also went into a serious tailspin after a hot streak that may or may not be repeated (.627, .595 OPS in Aug/Sept) while Denard was on par with his career norms.

Span is the better player by quite a bit. More reliable to perform (if healthy) at the very least.

amjgt
11-30-2012, 02:23 PM
I'm not saying Denard is a bad player especially with his very reasonable contract taken into consideration, but for me personally, I like a leadoff hitter more like Revere than Span. Neither of them are perfect, but I'd tend toward Revere.

Alex
11-30-2012, 02:40 PM
He slugs below .700

Most guys not named Barry Bonds do. (OK, OK, you just made a typo and meant OPS.)


and his OBP needs to improve.

Ironically, a lack of SLG likely affects the OBP. Without power, he surely faces more pitches in the strike zone, since his opponents will think "why risk walking him, if he gets a hit he's only on first base anyway." I'm sure stats exist that confirm or disprove that guess. Admittedly, guys like Jamey Carroll have the same profile and do manage to work pitchers for some walks, so Ben would do well to pick Jamey's brain, but I have to believe there's a limit when you absolutely won't hit it over the fence when the pitch is down the middle and even ringing doubles are scarce.

Honestly, with his speed he should be getting doubles just through hustle, so it's evident that the ball is coming off his bat so weakly that no pitcher has to fear giving him pitches in the strike zone.

Span is no masher, but demonstrates enough power that pitchers must be careful, and his OBP reflects this, making him a very valuable major league hitter.


I'd choose Span over him for sure, but as mentioned, it's less about him than it is about depth in the outfield behind him.

Exactly. This isn't like the AJ trade that was made in order to get an even better player into the lineup. This is to accept a hopefully small downgrade at one position in exchange for a larger upgrade elsewhere - in this case the "where" being "elsed" is also along the time dimension as well as the playing position.

Yeah, you caught me. Meant OPS;)

Lack of SLG AND lack of OBP affect OPS, as you mention both directly and indirectly. If he were a .350 OBP guy (Span's range) his OPS looks a little better, but I really just use OPS (or meant to) as a reference point. If he adds either doubles (like 20-30 of them) or walks to his repertoire, his value becomes much improved, and they would certainly go hand in hand.

jun
11-30-2012, 02:41 PM
It's not what the Twins loss, but waht did they gain in the next 4 years? Nothing!
A guy who has a chance to become our best in house pitcher since Matt Garza is "nothing"?

They also added a bit of payroll flexibility and opened up Arcia and Hicks (both of who could be better then Span) paths to the majors.

I think I have a chance to win the jackpot as long as I buy a ticket.

rickyriolo
11-30-2012, 02:45 PM
is this it for TR & the Twins on the trade market? i think it is and they will now concentrate on signing free agent pitchers. Any hope for the 2013 season???? or will Twins finish dead last again in the division for the 3rd year in a row??

Jerr
11-30-2012, 03:00 PM
I think we forget that Span has had health issues.
I think it can turn out to be an awesome trade and well all have to be patient as there are no quick fixes!
I know one thing for sure, I will miss Span and only wish him the best!!!

Kwak
11-30-2012, 03:35 PM
No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

Brock Beauchamp
11-30-2012, 03:38 PM
No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

This, this, and this.

ThePuck
11-30-2012, 04:07 PM
Fielding Bible voters listed Span as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball. Defensive metrics of qualifying CFs back that up. Revere has not shown he is a better defensive CENTER FIELDER than Span is. Saying he is much better IN CF...there is nothing backing that up.

Now, Revere did rate as a very good RF...definitely...even with that, um, arm...but that's compared to RFs...

gunnarthor
11-30-2012, 04:09 PM
Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.

ThePuck
11-30-2012, 04:11 PM
For the record, I'm a big Span fan. I enjoyed his low key style of play...his top notch defense that didn't need to be flashy cause he read the ball of the bat so well. I don't think a player NEEDS to be flashy to be a great defender. Span, like Hardy, are just understated great defensive players.

Now, the trade...hate to see him go...but this trade is for 2015 and beyond. If there are any more trades, I hope they are the same way. Stick to a plan and go for it. Hoping Meyer works out.

ThePuck
11-30-2012, 04:13 PM
Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.

Revere got promoted early due to injury...to Span. Span got promoted late because even though he beat out Gomez for the recently vacated CF spot, he was sent back to the minors. Oh and we had a pretty good CF in Span's way before that...Hunter I think his name was...with Cuddyer and Kubel on the team too.

Also, judging players by when the TWINS promote players, well...

ThePuck
11-30-2012, 04:19 PM
Still don't understand the Revere hate around here. He made the majors at 22, two + years before Span. Last year, fWAR gave Span a .5 advantage, which is basically nothing, even though Revere was compared with RFers and Span with CFers. Everyone seems to think that Revere is a finished project for some reason. Cripes, he'll be 25 next year and starting to enter his prime years. He'll get better.

Revere's WAR is helped by being compared to RFs...he's a fine defender, but IMO, we can't say he's a better defensive CF than Span is..not yet

70charger
11-30-2012, 04:30 PM
No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

How do you know that no one offered for Revere instead of Span? Maybe they did, but the Twins didn't bite because (a) they think Revere is as good as Span/better than Span/good enough to bridge the gap to Hicks, and (b) Revere costs literally millions of dollars less.

Also, your claim that others' claims about Revere viz. Span are "rubbish" is conclusory. At least offer some evidence instead of dismissing other peoples' points of view out of hand. If all your argument consists of is the fact that it was Span and not Revere traded, then you're working off a whole mess of assumptions that you can't back up.

ashburyjohn
11-30-2012, 05:05 PM
is this it for TR & the Twins on the trade market? i think it is and they will now concentrate on signing free agent pitchers. Any hope for the 2013 season???? or will Twins finish dead last again in the division for the 3rd year in a row??

My opinion is that the nature of the Span trade lays the path for more deals like it, that key toward 2015 rather than 2013. Yes they have to make various deals for 2013, but signings will be best viewed in terms of 2015, e.g. 2-year deals for older pitchers until a new crop is ready, and possibly a trade or two is still in the works that will not by itself make the team stronger for 2013.

Had they instead traded Span for one or two MLB-ready players, that would probably have been it for the trades, because this was in part to reduce a perceived logjam in the outfield.

mike wants wins
11-30-2012, 05:23 PM
I don't think it is Revere hate, it is more "Revere hasn't proven he's good yet, but so many people are already crowning him that we are shovelling all kinds of realism on him....". Some people are stating that Revere is better than Span....that seems....not to be true just yet. So, many others are basically pointing out his weaknesses to offset those arguments. But ya, I think he's a very good to great defender that has not YET figured out how to get on base enough to offset his lack of power.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-30-2012, 05:34 PM
Here is to hoping that Revere puts up another solid year and proves he can play. As long as he can get his walks up a bit he will be an adequate lead off hitter. He is a good ballplayer and if he can improve is OBP % the boys behind him should be able to get him in!

Riverbrian
11-30-2012, 05:47 PM
I don't think it is Revere hate, it is more "Revere hasn't proven he's good yet, but so many people are already crowning him that we are shovelling all kinds of realism on him....". Some people are stating that Revere is better than Span....that seems....not to be true just yet. So, many others are basically pointing out his weaknesses to offset those arguments. But ya, I think he's a very good to great defender that has not YET figured out how to get on base enough to offset his lack of power.

I wouldn't argue your points... Revere has weaknesses and so does Span... And they both have strengths.

I think we can all agree that I'm a Revere supporter. Keep in mind that I'm also a Span supporter and I think worrying about whose better between Span and Revere is crazy and doesn't really matter.

Revere is as good as they come in the outfield when it comes to going and getting it.
Span is as good as they come when it comes to plate discipline.
Niether has a decent arm. One Guy hits more doubles. One Guy Steals More bases. One guy is more experienced and one guy is less expensive.

If I had to pick between them to win right now with a gun to my head... I'd choose Span but not by a bunch. If I had to pick a player to win later.. I'd pick Revere but not by a bunch. These are my opinions and I understand that they don't reflect everybody. For 2012... I really liked them both in the OF together. For 2013, 2014, 2015... I really want pitching... I would have traded Span and I'd move Revere as well if the right offer came along.

I like em both... I will miss Span and the full weight of my support is behind Revere and I don't worry about him in CF at all. I'm going to enjoy him while he has a starting job because he's good baseball.

johnnydakota
11-30-2012, 05:57 PM
If denard was worth a #2 prospect , could we have gotten a #11 and a #20 prospect from the phillys for him? #11 is petitbone ,not dazzaling but solid middle of the rotation pitcher ready to contribute some time in 2013 season ,and ruf is a righthanded masher who plays 1b .
He hit 41 homeruns between AA and the majors last year .
My complaint or disapointment is,we filled only 1 hole and will wait 2-4 years to see if he pans out.
Also i am not convinced chris parmele has what it takes to replace justin morneau ,preinjury.I hope parm makes me eat a big crow sandwich and i end up admitting terry ryan was correct , but its a long wait to know

jokin
11-30-2012, 07:24 PM
No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

How do you know that no one offered for Revere instead of Span? Maybe they did, but the Twins didn't bite because (a) they think Revere is as good as Span/better than Span/good enough to bridge the gap to Hicks, and (b) Revere costs literally millions of dollars less.

Also, your claim that others' claims about Revere viz. Span are "rubbish" is conclusory. At least offer some evidence instead of dismissing other peoples' points of view out of hand. If all your argument consists of is the fact that it was Span and not Revere traded, then you're working off a whole mess of assumptions that you can't back up.

Skimming through the Span/Revere debate, it's positively glaring how ignored this simple fact is maintained and disregarded by the pro-Denard camp. Getting a replacement CF for 10% on the Span dollars yields you far more than just 10% of Span's value to the Twins.


Most all Twins fans on both sides of the argument will miss Denard, but this is something that had to happen, and it makes the most business sense besides.

Kwak
11-30-2012, 07:34 PM
No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

How do you know that no one offered for Revere instead of Span? Maybe they did, but the Twins didn't bite because (a) they think Revere is as good as Span/better than Span/good enough to bridge the gap to Hicks, and (b) Revere costs literally millions of dollars less.

Also, your claim that others' claims about Revere viz. Span are "rubbish" is conclusory. At least offer some evidence instead of dismissing other peoples' points of view out of hand. If all your argument consists of is the fact that it was Span and not Revere traded, then you're working off a whole mess of assumptions that you can't back up.

Skimming through the Span/Revere debate, it's positively glaring how ignored this simple fact is maintained and disregarded by the pro-Denard camp. Getting a replacement CF for 10% on the Span dollars yields you far more than just 10% of Span's value to the Twins.


Most all Twins fans on both sides of the argument will miss Denard, but this is something that had to happen, and it makes the most business sense besides.
When do I get my check? Is payroll a pressing problem? Will this "saving" be used for anything for the fans? Don't bother to answer I already know.

jokin
11-30-2012, 07:49 PM
No need to quote all of the posters on this page vis` a vis Span/Revere dialogue. I am in the camp that Revere is overrated by the Twins and many posters from this thread. Example: statements like Revere>>>>>>Span or Span's defence improved because of Revere or Revere is a better leadoff hitter than Span--all rubbish. But at least it wasn't as vile as the trash Souhan wrote in the Strib today. I don't know if he is writing from a Twins script or is completely clueless. Consider this: if Revere was better than Span why didn't WASH ask for him instead of Span? The Twins need for starting pitching is so high they wouldn't refuse that trade to get Meyer. Goodness, if that happened they could offer Span to CIN and cross there fingers on Hicks (well actually when they drafted him 1st in '08 they did!) and play him in 2013. Truth is Span is a proven quality player at a good price and he would be selected by basically every MLB team to be their CF (the Twins did last year!) rather than Revere. Yes, there are better CFs on other teams. Trading Span will likely translate into fewer wins unless the next wave is started this year and they fully meet or exceed expectations. If next week doesn't yield quality ML experienced pitchers to make 2013 at least plausibly successful, the Twins might just as well align as this: 1) SP de jure 2) Mauer 3) Parmalee 4) ?? 5) Plouffe 6) Florimon 7) Revere 8) Hicks 9) Arcia DH) Willingham and let the chips fall as they may.

How do you know that no one offered for Revere instead of Span? Maybe they did, but the Twins didn't bite because (a) they think Revere is as good as Span/better than Span/good enough to bridge the gap to Hicks, and (b) Revere costs literally millions of dollars less.

Also, your claim that others' claims about Revere viz. Span are "rubbish" is conclusory. At least offer some evidence instead of dismissing other peoples' points of view out of hand. If all your argument consists of is the fact that it was Span and not Revere traded, then you're working off a whole mess of assumptions that you can't back up.

Skimming through the Span/Revere debate, it's positively glaring how ignored this simple fact is maintained and disregarded by the pro-Denard camp. Getting a replacement CF for 10% on the Span dollars yields you far more than just 10% of Span's value to the Twins.


Most all Twins fans on both sides of the argument will miss Denard, but this is something that had to happen, and it makes the most business sense besides.
When do I get my check? Is payroll a pressing problem? Will this "saving" be used for anything for the fans? Don't bother to answer I already know.

When do I get my check?
If you're a Twins shareholder, the check is in the mail

Is payroll a pressing problem?
The Twins have stated that it is throughout the Pohlad era, so I guess the answer is "yes".

Will this "saving" be used for anything for the fans?
Directly, no. Hopefully the braintrust has admitted that they're shooting for a huge run in 2015 and are going to devote all their financial resources towards that end; the only question that remains is: Do Twins fans have the Delayed Need Gratification traits that early 80s and late 90s fans were forced to embrace waiting for the turn.

jokin
11-30-2012, 08:09 PM
I don't think it is Revere hate, it is more "Revere hasn't proven he's good yet, but so many people are already crowning him that we are shovelling all kinds of realism on him....". Some people are stating that Revere is better than Span....that seems....not to be true just yet. So, many others are basically pointing out his weaknesses to offset those arguments. But ya, I think he's a very good to great defender that has not YET figured out how to get on base enough to offset his lack of power.

I wouldn't argue your points... Revere has weaknesses and so does Span... And they both have strengths.

I think we can all agree that I'm a Revere supporter. Keep in mind that I'm also a Span supporter and I think worrying about whose better between Span and Revere is crazy and doesn't really matter.

Revere is as good as they come in the outfield when it comes to going and getting it.
Span is as good as they come when it comes to plate discipline.
Niether has a decent arm. One Guy hits more doubles. One Guy Steals More bases. One guy is more experienced and one guy is less expensive.

If I had to pick between them to win right now with a gun to my head... I'd choose Span but not by a bunch. If I had to pick a player to win later.. I'd pick Revere but not by a bunch. These are my opinions and I understand that they don't reflect everybody. For 2012... I really liked them both in the OF together. For 2013, 2014, 2015... I really want pitching... I would have traded Span and I'd move Revere as well if the right offer came along.

I like em both... I will miss Span and the full weight of my support is behind Revere and I don't worry about him in CF at all. I'm going to enjoy him while he has a starting job because he's good baseball.

Quick quiz:

Player A: 624 AB, .274 BA, 96 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 42 SB .739 OPS
Player B: 511 AB, .294 BA, 70 R, 0 HR, 32 RBI, 40 SB .675 OPS

How much more will CFer, Player A make than CFer, Player B in 2013?

The answer: Player A will likely make as much as $17MM more than Player B, even though when combining the defensive metric, runs taken away, with the runs-produced, numbers aren't all that far apart.

I'm sure you can easily figure out which is which, who is who, and which one is the new Twins CFer (who happens to be 6 years younger and theoretically is that many years away from his own peak numbers)

diehardtwinsfan
11-30-2012, 08:20 PM
After being teased in the media about going after guys like Shields and Cingrani, can you see why expectations had to be adjusted?

I'm not sure about the teasing, Meyer is a far better option than either of these two. Cingrani projects to be a 2/3 type pitcher and Sheilds has 1 year left on his deal. The Twins need depth at pitching just as much as they need it at the major league level. This was a smart move. They have a nice core of hitters coming up through the system which will complement a decent core of hitters that are currently here. But with no pitching, they will be mediocre.

I have no idea if Meyer will make it, but they've added some desparately needed talent to the pitching pool to complement the nice core of hitters they already have.

jokin
11-30-2012, 08:27 PM
I say load up on one top tier FA every year. Then you got yourself a team.

Yeah, and that team is the Chicago Cubs.

jokin
11-30-2012, 08:37 PM
After being teased in the media about going after guys like Shields and Cingrani, can you see why expectations had to be adjusted?

I'm not sure about the teasing, Meyer is a far better option than either of these two. Cingrani projects to be a 2/3 type pitcher and Sheilds has 1 year left on his deal. The Twins need depth at pitching just as much as they need it at the major league level. This was a smart move. They have a nice core of hitters coming up through the system which will complement a decent core of hitters that are currently here. But with no pitching, they will be mediocre.

I have no idea if Meyer will make it, but they've added some desparately needed talent to the pitching pool to complement the nice core of hitters they already have.

Getting a Meyer, with a very spotty college record, dominating kids younger than himself in A ball, short on fluid pitching mechanics on the come is far riskier than either Shields or Cingrani, but admittedly with a bigger potential payoff far down the road. I think it is incumbent on Parker Hageman to do an in-depth video/statistical comp on Randy Johnson's career at the same point to provide some vision to Twins fans on what may or may not be in store 5 years from now.

Obviously, a trade for Shields would have to have involved some kind of contract extension implicit in the trade, perhaps that's why the deal was never consumated. Cingrani has a lower ceiling than Meyer to be sure, but he could have been penciled into the desperately-seeking-arms-rotation sometime in 2013. Meyer is looking like a 2015 impact SP if everything plays out perfectly.

diehardtwinsfan
11-30-2012, 08:51 PM
Getting a Meyer, with a very spotty college record, dominating kids younger than himself in A ball, short on fluid pitching mechanics on the come is far riskier than either Shields or Cingrani, but admittedly with a bigger potential payoff far down the road. I think it is incumbent on Parker Hageman to do an in-depth video/statistical comp on Randy Johnson's career at the same point to provide some vision to Twins fans on what may or may not be in store 5 years from now.

Obviously, a trade for Shields would have to have involved some kind of contract extension implicit in the trade, perhaps that's why the deal was never consumated. Cingrani has a lower ceiling than Meyer to be sure, but he could have been penciled into the desperately-seeking-arms-rotation sometime in 2013. Meyer is looking like a 2015 impact SP if everything plays out perfectly.

2015 is probably a worst case. He's going to likely start in FTM and get promoted to NB in 2013. He might even go the Garza route and hit Rochester next year too. He will likely be in AAA in 2014 and if all goes well, will get the call if the team needs him. I for one would rather have the ceiling at the moment. The Twins will probably go after one long term FA signing that could be penciled into the rotation for the forseable future (crossing fingers and hoping for A. Sanchez) along with a couple of 1/2 year prove it type guys. I half expect them to take a college pitcher next year too.

Brandon
11-30-2012, 09:00 PM
The more I think about it, the Twins should have recieved a throw in to the deal. Maybe a c proscpect in a ball or a reliever, or lambardozzi or something as Span is a bargain at 21 million for 3 years compared to what Bourn will cost when he signs. Meyer is a great prospect and does a great job headlining the deal but he is still in A ball and we should be able to get something else to mitigate that risk so we still end up with some value should Meyer flop.

jokin
11-30-2012, 09:05 PM
Getting a Meyer, with a very spotty college record, dominating kids younger than himself in A ball, short on fluid pitching mechanics on the come is far riskier than either Shields or Cingrani, but admittedly with a bigger potential payoff far down the road. I think it is incumbent on Parker Hageman to do an in-depth video/statistical comp on Randy Johnson's career at the same point to provide some vision to Twins fans on what may or may not be in store 5 years from now.

Obviously, a trade for Shields would have to have involved some kind of contract extension implicit in the trade, perhaps that's why the deal was never consumated. Cingrani has a lower ceiling than Meyer to be sure, but he could have been penciled into the desperately-seeking-arms-rotation sometime in 2013. Meyer is looking like a 2015 impact SP if everything plays out perfectly.

2015 is probably a worst case. He's going to likely start in FTM and get promoted to NB in 2013. He might even go the Garza route and hit Rochester next year too. He will likely be in AAA in 2014 and if all goes well, will get the call if the team needs him. I for one would rather have the ceiling at the moment. The Twins will probably go after one long term FA signing that could be penciled into the rotation for the forseable future (crossing fingers and hoping for A. Sanchez) along with a couple of 1/2 year prove it type guys. I half expect them to take a college pitcher next year too.


Re: Sanchez, you and me both, brother! (Not holding my breath).

Regarding Meyer, I used a qualifier, it's possible he gets a call in 2014, but more likely that he has any kind of significant impact as an SP in 2015. The Twins generally proceed at a snail's pace in moving up prospects, with a prized prospect such as Meyer, they most likely would choose to protect their investment physically (don't you think there is still long institutional memory of what happened to Liriano in '06???) and also delay the arbitration clock as long as possible.

jokin
11-30-2012, 09:08 PM
The more I think about it, the Twins should have recieved a throw in to the deal. Maybe a c proscpect in a ball or a reliever, or lambardozzi or something as Span is a bargain at 21 million for 3 years compared to what Bourn will cost when he signs. Meyer is a great prospect and does a great job headlining the deal but he is still in A ball and we should be able to get something else to mitigate that risk so we still end up with some value should Meyer flop.

Brandon, I concur, see my quiz post above for more evidence.

Kwak
11-30-2012, 11:45 PM
The more I think about it, the Twins should have recieved a throw in to the deal. Maybe a c proscpect in a ball or a reliever, or lambardozzi or something as Span is a bargain at 21 million for 3 years compared to what Bourn will cost when he signs. Meyer is a great prospect and does a great job headlining the deal but he is still in A ball and we should be able to get something else to mitigate that risk so we still end up with some value should Meyer flop.

Throw-in = minor leaguer who became what the Twins received for Young, Hardy, or Liriano. It's quality not quantity.

jokin
12-01-2012, 12:24 AM
The more I think about it, the Twins should have recieved a throw in to the deal. Maybe a c proscpect in a ball or a reliever, or lambardozzi or something as Span is a bargain at 21 million for 3 years compared to what Bourn will cost when he signs. Meyer is a great prospect and does a great job headlining the deal but he is still in A ball and we should be able to get something else to mitigate that risk so we still end up with some value should Meyer flop.

Throw-in = minor leaguer who became what the Twins received for Young, Hardy, or Liriano. It's quality not quantity.

Lombardozzi, while not great, would have been a throw-in better than anything the Twins have now in the MI.

Top Gun
12-01-2012, 01:46 AM
Strasburg would have been better.

diehardtwinsfan
12-01-2012, 08:06 AM
The more I think about it, the Twins should have recieved a throw in to the deal. Maybe a c proscpect in a ball or a reliever, or lambardozzi or something as Span is a bargain at 21 million for 3 years compared to what Bourn will cost when he signs. Meyer is a great prospect and does a great job headlining the deal but he is still in A ball and we should be able to get something else to mitigate that risk so we still end up with some value should Meyer flop.

Throw-in = minor leaguer who became what the Twins received for Young, Hardy, or Liriano. It's quality not quantity.

I'd point out that Liriano was the throw in prospect in the AJ trade... just saying. Yes, a throw in would have been nice, and I have no doubt that the Twins asked for one, but I'm guessing Meyer was the most the Nats would pay. Front line starting pitchers are not cheap. If they are still front liners by the time they get to AA, they are untradable. Meyer did pretty good in A+ and will likely be in AA at some point next year, so we got about as good as we can get. I'd have loved the throw in too, but it wasn't going to happen.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 10:26 AM
Throw ins?

I think it's possible that Rizzo and Ryan have been talking for a long time.
I think that Rizzo has wanted Span for awhile.
I think it's possible that Terry Ryan has been asking for Meyer in return since the trade deadline for Span and Rizzo has been saying that's too much.
I think it's possible that Ryan has been talking to a lot of clubs besides the Nats about Span but no team had risen to what Terry was asking.
I think it's possible that after the Braves signed Upton... Rizzo called Ryan and said,.. Alright Terry... Damn it.. I'll give you Meyer and a trade was agreed upon.


I do not believe that Upton signing with the Braves spurred Terry Ryan to call Rizzo in a panic and settle for this Meyer Kid before the meetings. That signing would be more likely to cause the Nats to come up and finish a deal.


Therefore I believe asking for a throw in... Is ridiculous. But I could be wrong on all of these things that I believe.

kab21
12-01-2012, 10:35 AM
Quality over Quantity

Throw ins = pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar types. Liriano might have been the 3rd player in the big trade but he was fairly well thought of except he was injury prone. If getting a Liriano type throw in downgraded Meyer to a lesser pitcher then I would be upset.

Brock Beauchamp
12-01-2012, 01:32 PM
Throw ins?

I think it's possible that Rizzo and Ryan have been talking for a long time.
I think that Rizzo has wanted Span for awhile.
I think it's possible that Terry Ryan has been asking for Meyer in return since the trade deadline for Span and Rizzo has been saying that's too much.
I think it's possible that Ryan has been talking to a lot of clubs besides the Nats about Span but no team had risen to what Terry was asking.
I think it's possible that after the Braves signed Upton... Rizzo called Ryan and said,.. Alright Terry... Damn it.. I'll give you Meyer and a trade was agreed upon.

I do not believe that Upton signing with the Braves spurred Terry Ryan to call Rizzo in a panic and settle for this Meyer Kid before the meetings. That signing would be more likely to cause the Nats to come up and finish a deal.

Therefore I believe asking for a throw in... Is ridiculous. But I could be wrong on all of these things that I believe.

This is my thinking as well.

ashburyjohn
12-01-2012, 02:56 PM
The more I think about it, the Twins should have recieved a throw in to the deal. Maybe a c proscpect in a ball or a reliever, or lambardozzi or something as Span is a bargain at 21 million for 3 years compared to what Bourn will cost when he signs. Meyer is a great prospect and does a great job headlining the deal but he is still in A ball and we should be able to get something else to mitigate that risk so we still end up with some value should Meyer flop.

I expected the Span deal to be multi-player, where the other team added a second legitimate (but lower-tier) prospect and the Twins added an even lower-tier prospect to provide a fig leaf. And if the other team really would not add anything, then just swap two equally questionable prospects to pad out the deal. That kind of thing lowers the pressure somewhat. It's brave, IMO, of Ryan to accept one-for-one and avoid this bit of game playing. Meyer simply has to make good, and Ryan is not worried about his job. So, maybe "brave" isn't quite the word, but something close, the calm that comes with being near the end of one's career but still fully engaged.

70charger
12-01-2012, 03:37 PM
I expected the Span deal to be multi-player, where the other team added a second legitimate (but lower-tier) prospect and the Twins added an even lower-tier prospect to provide a fig leaf. And if the other team really would not add anything, then just swap two equally questionable prospects to pad out the deal. That kind of thing lowers the pressure somewhat. It's brave, IMO, of Ryan to accept one-for-one and avoid this bit of game playing. Meyer simply has to make good, and Ryan is not worried about his job. So, maybe "brave" isn't quite the word, but something close, the calm that comes with being near the end of one's career but still fully engaged.

At this point in the Twins' history, I'd rather have that kind of calm confidence in scouting than a skittish ultra-conservatism. You're not going to get to the playoffs without a serious shakeup, and yes, that entails risk. I'll take it.

I might regret being on record here, but I like this trade.

Riverbrian
12-01-2012, 03:54 PM
When I saw the trade announced... I remembered Meyer ranked high on Prospect lists but I didn't recall any details about him and his ranking. I just thought I remembered him and was pretty sure he was highly ranked. The name rung a big bell and I was excited.

I thought to myself. Interesting... I think they got someone.

I then jumped on the computer and immediately went to his stats... I saw he was over a strikeout an inning. ERA below 3.00

I thought to myself... Looks Good.

Than I noticed one year in A Ball.

I thought to myself... Shoot!!! only A ball... I was seriously hoping for closer to MLB ready... I felt a little concerned.

Than I noticed his age... 22 and one year in A ball.

I thought to myself... College Kid... That explains it. He could move up quick.

Than I read the scouting reports... Most reports are projecting top of the rotation. Upper 90's fastball and big time slider. He turned down 2 million to pitch in College and got 2 million again to sign after so he got his 2 million anyway.

I thought to myself... Multiple teams were willing to spend to sign this guy... Alright... Let's pray for health! I think Terry has done good! Can't wait to see him for myself.

I haven't seen him pitch yet... Based on what I've read and my trust in our Front Office. I think we got a good deal! I'm happy.

diehardtwinsfan
12-01-2012, 04:34 PM
Just another minor point to make, but these are the types of trades that TR has traditionally done very well on... I'm not quite sure about the angst here, a lot of us would have been thrilled to get Delgado or Cingrani who are closer to the show but have lower ceilings. Honestly, I'd have been fine for any of those. Ryan clearly wanted a high ceiling... hopefully that is what he takes next year in the draft too.

ashburyjohn
12-02-2012, 11:34 AM
At this point in the Twins' history, I'd rather have that kind of calm confidence in scouting than a skittish ultra-conservatism. You're not going to get to the playoffs without a serious shakeup, and yes, that entails risk. I'll take it.

Just in case I was unclear, I'm a big Terry Ryan supporter and (as John Bonnes said succinctly on the very first page of these comments) I trust him on deals like this.

Fire Dan Gladden
12-02-2012, 08:32 PM
Media claims are about as close to reality as Thyrloss's last scoop.[/QUOTE]

We have a winner!

Fire Dan Gladden
12-02-2012, 08:40 PM
I think it's a little early to write the Royal's great system off. It's taking longer than SOME expected but that is an organization that has a lot of talent. Unfortunately none of the young pitchers have worked out.

No, it's definitely too early to write them off entirely but the Royals should be a shining example of why burning down the franchise and rebuilding with prospects can be a mistake. The Royals did nothing wrong; they drafted smartly, traded smartly, and put together a stellar farm system... One of the best we've seen in baseball in two decades.

And what has that gotten them? So far, a whole lot of nothing. If a team can draft that well and build a minor league system that strong and still accomplish nothing at the Major League level, why should the Twins follow suit?

Attention all followers of the "Burn and Build" philosophy. Please read this post. Then read it again. And again. Commit it to memory. Remember it the next time you feel like typing something idiotic like "trade all veterans for prospects so we will be good in 2015"

Fire Dan Gladden
12-02-2012, 08:54 PM
After being teased in the media about going after guys like Shields and Cingrani, can you see why expectations had to be adjusted?

I'm not sure about the teasing, Meyer is a far better option than either of these two. Cingrani projects to be a 2/3 type pitcher and Sheilds has 1 year left on his deal. The Twins need depth at pitching just as much as they need it at the major league level. This was a smart move. They have a nice core of hitters coming up through the system which will complement a decent core of hitters that are currently here. But with no pitching, they will be mediocre.

I have no idea if Meyer will make it, but they've added some desparately needed talent to the pitching pool to complement the nice core of hitters they already have.

Getting a Meyer, with a very spotty college record, dominating kids younger than himself in A ball, short on fluid pitching mechanics on the come is far riskier than either Shields or Cingrani, but admittedly with a bigger potential payoff far down the road. I think it is incumbent on Parker Hageman to do an in-depth video/statistical comp on Randy Johnson's career at the same point to provide some vision to Twins fans on what may or may not be in store 5 years from now.

Obviously, a trade for Shields would have to have involved some kind of contract extension implicit in the trade, perhaps that's why the deal was never consumated. Cingrani has a lower ceiling than Meyer to be sure, but he could have been penciled into the desperately-seeking-arms-rotation sometime in 2013. Meyer is looking like a 2015 impact SP if everything plays out perfectly.

Randy Johnson? Really? Why not Loek Van Mil...