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View Full Version : Article: Braves Signing Upton Hurts Twins' Trade Options



John Bonnes
11-28-2012, 06:55 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1204-Braves-Signing-Upton-Hurts-Twins-Trade-Options

raindog
11-28-2012, 07:25 PM
Or we could remain level-headed. There is no evidence that the Braves were willing to give up much of value to the Twins for Span. Hopefully the Reds are willing.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-28-2012, 07:26 PM
Or we could remain level-headed. There is no evidence that the Braves were willing to give up much of value to the Twins for Span. Hopefully the Reds are willing.

Im really just not that interested in trading with the Reds. Im hoping The Rays...but they have a pretty smart front office and likely will say no to the Twins demands for Span similar to the Braves.

Alex
11-28-2012, 07:29 PM
Might the Phillies be looking for a CF as well?

raindog
11-28-2012, 07:33 PM
Or we could remain level-headed. There is no evidence that the Braves were willing to give up much of value to the Twins for Span. Hopefully the Reds are willing.

Im really just not that interested in trading with the Reds. Im hoping The Rays...but they have a pretty smart front office and likely will say no to the Twins demands for Span similar to the Braves.

I would be happy with the Rays, as well. But like you siad, they have a very smart front office. Probably best in baseball. I don't see us getting the better end of that deal.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-28-2012, 07:49 PM
Or we could remain level-headed. There is no evidence that the Braves were willing to give up much of value to the Twins for Span. Hopefully the Reds are willing.

Im really just not that interested in trading with the Reds. Im hoping The Rays...but they have a pretty smart front office and likely will say no to the Twins demands for Span similar to the Braves.


I would be happy with the Rays, as well. But like you siad, they have a very smart front office. Probably best in baseball. I don't see us getting the better end of that deal.


I honestly think if we trade Span most people are going to be upset at what we receive for him. Right now the Twins I have heard are asking for a haul for Span.

mike wants wins
11-28-2012, 08:35 PM
As your options shrink, your return usually shrinks. It's simple economics.....so ya, this is another bump in the offseason.

Twins Twerp
11-28-2012, 09:27 PM
Nooooooooooooooooo:shoot: myself

birdwatcher
11-28-2012, 09:38 PM
Allhope,
you've mentioned that the Twins are asking for a haul foe Span, and you've mentioned that the Braves turned down the Twins based on their demands for Span.

Just curious. Who's your source? thrylos?

Riverbrian
11-28-2012, 10:36 PM
The Braves don't have to be out of the running with the signing of Upton. They still have an OF need and value is still value. Does it knock down the need for an OF'er? Yes but Span would still be a nice leadoff hitter fit for the Braves... Upton is not a leadoff guy.

The other side of the coin obviously. It takes one option off the table for all the other teams that could use a CF.

Yes... I'd like some of that Atlanta pitching but as names come off the board... Theoretically... Spans value should increase.

Theoretically means nothing because I'm making these theories from North Dakota.

clutterheart
11-28-2012, 10:47 PM
Did Ryan wait too long here?

Seems like he did. I am sure the Braves offered some folks to him as they had incentive to save the 8 Million difference that Span would have brought them.

nicksaviking
11-28-2012, 10:58 PM
Alas we will never know what was asked for and what was offered. These kind of details often get leaked, but never with the Twins. I'd still like to know what the snag was in the Span to the Reds deal last July.

Cris E
11-28-2012, 11:02 PM
It's also been mentioned that ATL may still be in the market for Span even though Upton was signed. It sounds unlikely, but given Span's team friendly deal, he could be attractive enough to make it a Span for middle IF deal instead. ATL has some stellar young SS.

Kwak
11-28-2012, 11:18 PM
The ATL ship has set sail folks, and the Twins still haven't acquired any pitching.

kab21
11-28-2012, 11:23 PM
Atlanta still needs offense and a LF'er so this ship hasn't completely sailed although it might be Willingham that gets traded. I don't have a problem with that as long as it's a decent return.

Alex
11-28-2012, 11:27 PM
Allhope,
you've mentioned that the Twins are asking for a haul foe Span, and you've mentioned that the Braves turned down the Twins based on their demands for Span.

Just curious. Who's your source? thrylos?

Ken Rosenthal reported that the Braves were interested in both Upton and Span but talks with Twins failed to progress.

RodneyKline
11-28-2012, 11:36 PM
This is no reason to hit the button. The Braves are out for Span but Upton is now off the market, so the other teams interested in Upton are now more interested in Span. The number one thing the team needs is a true Ace. A number one starter is essential. I am on the sign Grienke bandwagon. I hope people jump on this wagon and get the cheapest GM in the business to go out and sign Grienke or he is going to pick up 3 or 4 bottom of the rotation guys and we will lose 90 plus again. An ace for the staff turns this from a 90+ loss to a 90+ win team. It is sooooo important to have a true ace on the staff. We cant let TR get away with 5 mid level starters or we will never compete in our division.

Top Gun
11-28-2012, 11:39 PM
Why trade pitching when you can sign a free agent? Twins will just have to wait on Span.

PseudoSABR
11-28-2012, 11:40 PM
The fact that Upton was an FA (along w Bourn) hurt Span's trade value. That Upton signed with a potential Span suitor was always a given! Another way to look at it is that those other teams in search of a CFer have fewer options. Span's value is at the very least nebulous.

Top Gun
11-28-2012, 11:43 PM
Rodney you are so right! we need a ace for the long-term, so do it now, why put if off?

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-29-2012, 12:05 AM
Rodney you are so right! we need a ace for the long-term, so do it now, why put if off?

Because there is no way the Twins will shell out the money in order to get that true ACE!

Top Gun
11-29-2012, 12:21 AM
My top 3 picks for the Twins are Grienke, Liriano, and Myers. I would be happy with that. Yes Haren, Marcum,Dempster,Jackson, and Sanchez are ok also, but they are injury phrone and pricey too. Look for a trade to happen to but after most of the FA sign.

Top Gun
11-29-2012, 12:30 AM
If we don't sign a true ace now we will lose 90 games for the next 2 years and maybe more, we can't not afford that and where would you find a younger and better one that now?

Shane Wahl
11-29-2012, 12:36 AM
I laugh at the idea that trading Span is some kind of necessity. For what? If this is about contending in 2013, I guarantee you that the Twins in 2013 are going to be better with Span than without him. If it is about 2014 and beyond, then I guarantee you that A: either there will be other trade options like Revere and Parmelee that make sense, or B: a deadline trade is going to be much more beneficial for Span.

I will vomit if the opening day lineup is Revere-Carroll at the top.

Fanatic Jack
11-29-2012, 01:04 AM
Shane,

This is just typical Twins stuff that has been going on for years. The Twins front office clearly overvalues the players on their roster and have no clue when the time is right to make a deal. Just look at the evidence in the last 5 years. They refused to trade Torii Hunter at the trade deadline in July 2007 and he left as a free agent. They waited way too long to trade Johan Santana and ended up getting nothing significant for him when they were offered players like Lester, Masterson, Lowrie, Cabrera, and Phil Hughes. They refused to trade Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano after great 2010 seasons and basically traded them as part of a salary dump. They also refused to unload Cuddyer, Nathan, and Kubel at the trade deadline in 2011. Why would anybody expect to receive more than a B prospect for Span or Morneau. I really for the first time in my life have lost complete confidence in GM Terry Ryan. He was once considered the best GM in MLB but not anymore.

Shane Wahl
11-29-2012, 01:23 AM
I agree with Fanatic Jack, generally, here! The bizarre marginal roster decisions indicate total weirdness to me. Jeff Gray and now Tim Wood. Thielbar on the 40-man? Really? Anyway, I think Doumit, Burton, and Carroll are good enough additions to warrant some good respect for TR in his first year back. It is unfortunate that this manager chose to remove Carroll from SS, even though the numbers are on Carroll's side. If TR can just now focus on TWO FA additions (Marcum and somebody else), that would be more than good enough for me.

sorney
11-29-2012, 07:08 AM
I think it's moves like this that get the impatient crowd going....
Knowing all along Atlanta would be a great fit for a trading partner, then seeing Atlanta sign a CF....it just feels like a lost opportunity.

Twins Twerp
11-29-2012, 08:00 AM
This is just 1 team off the market for a CF. We still have trade partners in the Phillies, Reds, Rangers, Rays, and any other team that would like a cheap upgrade in center. Its the middle of the second inning of the offseason...chill

Riverbrian
11-29-2012, 08:03 AM
Terry wants 10 dollars... Frank offers 6 dollars... The blue book probably says 8.

Span is a Banana... Upton is a peach. Atlanta still wants a Banana because you don't want a peach that hasn't hit above .250 the last 4 seasons hitting leadoff.

Frank is offering 6 dollars because there are other Bananas around but Span is one of the top leadoff Bananas available. Terry is asking for 10 because he wants 10 and other have expressed interest in his Banana.

Terry will either keep his Banana or trade him for 8 dollars or maybe get the full 10 dollars. I doubt that Terry will trade for 6 dollars because the Banana market will fluctuate.

Willihammer
11-29-2012, 08:06 AM
Dang you BJ... for working next year someplace!

John Bonnes
11-29-2012, 09:00 AM
This is just 1 team off the market for a CF. We still have trade partners in the Phillies, Reds, Rangers, Rays, and any other team that would like a cheap upgrade in center. Its the middle of the second inning of the offseason...chill

I'd just like to go through the teams you mentioned....
Phillies - Have lots of money. So much that the speculation is that they're chasing Hamilton and could drop back to Bourn. Span being cheap isn't unvaluable, but it also isn't necessary like it was for the Braves.
Texas - ditto
Rays - Lots of pitching and they need a CFer, and they need him to be cheap. But here's the thing - they were never going to be "in" on any of these bigger free agent center fielders. If a trade was going to get done with them, it could have been done weeks ago. And losing Upton and the Braves off the market doesn't hurt their bargaining position, just the Twins. The Twins and Rays might yet come together, but at this point we can assume they have talked and didn't find a deal. And at the very least, this hurts the Twins leverage.
Reds - I just don't see the major-league ready pitching that Ryan is looking for in this organization. I think they can work out a trade, and that trade might net them some future arms, but that is looking further to the future than I think Ryan wants to look.

So, yes, there are still fish in the sea, but I don't find them nearly as appealing.

powrwrap
11-29-2012, 09:23 AM
Did Ryan wait too long here?

Seems like he did.

With the change to cold weather in the Twin Cities Ryan's hands got cold so he is sitting on them to keep warm. Expect this to happen until next spring's thaw.

StormJH1
11-29-2012, 09:46 AM
I think the expectations about the trade returns for Span are way overblown. Even on the G & G podcast, there was straightfaced talk of Span-for-Mike Minor, or Span/Willingham for Billy Hamilton. Really? The Reds have the best athlete in all of baseball in their system, and they're just going to dump him off for Willingham (who overacheived last year and will kill them defensively in the NL) and Span (who is a nice player, but has injury/concussion concerns). Hamilton may only be "elite" in one category, but he's as elite as you could possibly be in that one category. Plus, you have to figure his range will at least be good whatever position he ends up at.

I think you can get something for Span, but it's probably more along the lines of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

This is a built-in phenomenon with Twins fans and even many of their smart bloggers - we were so accustomed to having garbage position players for years who never should have been major league starters, that as soon as we get somebody decent (Willingham's power, Span's average and plate approach), we fail to understand just how average those guys really are from the perspective of all the other teams in baseball.

Also, I wouldn't limit the returns to just "major league ready pitching". Just because we have a dire need for ML starters doesn't mean we couldn't also use some "B" level prospects in the 21-25 age range either (AA or AAA). We really don't have coming down the pipeline either. However, as I said above, I'm not sure Span could fetch that type of player, given the other FA or trade options available to teams that need a CF or LF.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-29-2012, 10:51 AM
As your options shrink, your return usually shrinks. It's simple economics.....so ya, this is another bump in the offseason.

It works both ways. Now if you are a team who needs a CF there is now one less good/legit one on the market.

It's supply/demmand. Simple economics :go:

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-29-2012, 10:53 AM
This is just 1 team off the market for a CF. We still have trade partners in the Phillies, Reds, Rangers, Rays, and any other team that would like a cheap upgrade in center. Its the middle of the second inning of the offseason...chill

I'd just like to go through the teams you mentioned....
Phillies - Have lots of money. So much that the speculation is that they're chasing Hamilton and could drop back to Bourn. Span being cheap isn't unvaluable, but it also isn't necessary like it was for the Braves.
Texas - ditto
Rays - Lots of pitching and they need a CFer, and they need him to be cheap. But here's the thing - they were never going to be "in" on any of these bigger free agent center fielders. If a trade was going to get done with them, it could have been done weeks ago. And losing Upton and the Braves off the market doesn't hurt their bargaining position, just the Twins. The Twins and Rays might yet come together, but at this point we can assume they have talked and didn't find a deal. And at the very least, this hurts the Twins leverage.
Reds - I just don't see the major-league ready pitching that Ryan is looking for in this organization. I think they can work out a trade, and that trade might net them some future arms, but that is looking further to the future than I think Ryan wants to look.

So, yes, there are still fish in the sea, but I don't find them nearly as appealing.

Does Texas really have that much money to spend? I don't think they have as much as some people believe.

mike wants wins
11-29-2012, 11:10 AM
Dave, agreed, but only the Rays have the kind of pitching "excess" the Twins really need of those team, I think. I expect the Phillies to sign a free agent. The Atlanta team has a ton of pitching in their minors, and to lose them, probably, as a trade partner is a disappointment.

twinstalker
11-29-2012, 11:38 AM
It's also been mentioned that ATL may still be in the market for Span even though Upton was signed. It sounds unlikely, but given Span's team friendly deal, he could be attractive enough to make it a Span for middle IF deal instead. ATL has some stellar young SS.
Who? They have Pastornicky and Ahmed, both of whom project as utility guys. We're not getting Andrelton Simmons for Span. Dozier is absolutely just as good and maybe better than Pastornicky.

Rosterman
11-29-2012, 11:46 AM
Hey, the Twins lost one of their 40-man additions on a waiver claim. Looks like they are doing a Rule 5 or a trade, maybe.

Being a general manager is a tough job. You want 10, as someone says, and are offered 6...and you keep hoping for that 8. You have fans complain when you trade Eddie Morlan as that extra player rather than Juan Rincon. You move out a Hardy because you sign some guy from Japan. I can complain that you basically let Manship and Bromberg walk rather than doing something with them.

Do you pull the plug on vets (Morneau and Span) or do you try and get something cor currently nothing (Benson) or to you dangle basic replacement parts (Revere and Parmelee) or actually ship off talent (Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Kepler, Hermsen et al). I always like the thoughts of moving prospects rather than losing them, especially if they are somewhat blocked in the system, have a decent minor league season, et al. Otherwise, you end up with a Benson...who will take him, today...and as he ages he is passed by others. Has his time come and gone. Will he luckily be the next Mike Restovich, or Trent Oeltjen or Doug Deeds?

One of the funner parts of this board is the trade talk, and 90% of the time it is favorable for the hometown team. WE all overvalu our players, so why get mad when the hometown management do the same. We all want what someone doesn't have to give because they basically want to get riod of spare parts, or players that they fel may be blocked in their system.

Being a general manager is tough. Hey, I would love to see an inter
rview in which a general manager is asked about the evaluation process of prospects that have left the organization. Take Gutierrez or Bromberg, for example. When did they see them as legit prospects. When did they fall off the radar. When could the plug have been pulled for a trade and why wasn't it. Sometimes you wonder at the amount of money spent on prospects that never pans out...how can you keep doing that over and over again. Better to not draft and just buy?

biggentleben
11-29-2012, 11:52 AM
It's also been mentioned that ATL may still be in the market for Span even though Upton was signed. It sounds unlikely, but given Span's team friendly deal, he could be attractive enough to make it a Span for middle IF deal instead. ATL has some stellar young SS.
Who? They have Pastornicky and Ahmed, both of whom project as utility guys. We're not getting Andrelton Simmons for Span. Dozier is absolutely just as good and maybe better than Pastornicky.

Ahmed has a lot of variety in opinions. He could be anywhere from a low-end utility guy to a lower-first division shortstop based on different prospectors. He's a guy who could be a solid hitter (.270-.290 with some pop and a little speed) and his defensive value has drawn a wide variety of opinions, depending on the day you saw him.

You are correct on Simmons. You wouldn't get Simmons for Span and Sano, let alone Span.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-29-2012, 11:54 AM
Dave, agreed, but only the Rays have the kind of pitching "excess" the Twins really need of those team, I think. I expect the Phillies to sign a free agent. The Atlanta team has a ton of pitching in their minors, and to lose them, probably, as a trade partner is a disappointment.

I would gladly trade Span for a good young 2B/SS as well. We need pitching, but lets not forget we have plenty of other holes in the majors/minors as well.

cmathewson
11-29-2012, 11:57 AM
Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

cmathewson
11-29-2012, 12:02 PM
Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

By the way, the Rays are the better trading partner, as they are rumored to be shopping both Shields and Hellickson.

PseudoSABR
11-29-2012, 12:14 PM
Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

By the way, the Rays are the better trading partner, as they are rumored to be shopping both Shields and Hellickson.They also have Jennings, who can both play CF and bat leadoff if they believe he will develop. So I'm not sure if TB is really better trading partners.

Seth Stohs
11-29-2012, 12:34 PM
Upton was going to be the first guy to sign, and once that happened, everyone had to re-adjust. As many have said, there are still teams that could be interested in Span. My guess is that Bourn will need to sign first. Also, the Braves are still a possibility for both Span and Willingham since they're planning to move Martin Prado into 3B from left field.

Twins Twerp
11-29-2012, 12:44 PM
If Bourn doesn't sign in Washington, could Span be in their crosshairs. I would think the Nationals would bolster the best outfield in baseball with Span, Werth, something called Bryce Harper. Yikes.

I see the Reds as a legit team to deal with. If we could pull away a pitchin prospect and a SS I would be giddy with excitement. Pick one of: Cingrini(LH), Stephenson, or Corcino...and pair him with: Cozart, Hamilton, or Gregorius. Twins could throw in someone like Joe Benson or some other OF prospect not named Arcia, Hicks, or Buxton (or Rosario who may still end up in the OF).

Boom!!! Deal done son

B Richard
11-29-2012, 12:56 PM
Panic? No.

The Bravos were the most appealing trade partner, but certainly not the only one capable of providing what the Twins are after. I know it's been pointed out already, but it's important to remember that one fewer CF on the open market should increase Span's relative value. Other teams may start to become more desperate- something that benefits the Twins greatly.

ThePuck
11-29-2012, 01:35 PM
How does Upton deserve 15M a year...seriously? He's gotten steadily worse in CF, his OBP was sub .300 last year, he hasn't reached a .250 BA in 5 years.

Yeah, he's averaged 25Hr over the last two years and stolen some bases, but really? 15M a year?

WOW!

Brock Beauchamp
11-29-2012, 02:02 PM
How does Upton deserve 15M a year...seriously? He's gotten steadily worse in CF, his OBP was sub .300 last year, he hasn't reached a .250 BA in 5 years.

Yeah, he's averaged 25Hr over the last two years and stolen some bases, but really? 15M a year?

WOW!

Joe Mauer at $23m per year doesn't look so bad when teams are giving $15m to 2.5 WAR players.

SeanS7921
11-29-2012, 02:02 PM
Upton is a great deal for the Braves. They get his Prime years 28-32 he hit 28 HRS and stold 31 bases while playing solid defense. He didn't take pitches last year but has in the past. If that OBP goes back up very good performer.
I don't get how the Braves needed LOW salary though? 15 million isn't bad for Upton but it's still a lot of money. They wanted Span and Willingham together? That's the only way it's even close to 15 million they just shelled out and the years are off on that.
I doubt Span has that much value. They guy is always hurt and has no power. Solid year last year but again he was hurt. The two years before that big time question marks. Obviously what's being offered for him isn't that great at this point.

Brock Beauchamp
11-29-2012, 02:10 PM
Upton is a great deal for the Braves. They get his Prime years 28-32 he hit 28 HRS and stold 31 bases while playing solid defense. He didn't take pitches last year but has in the past. If that OBP goes back up very good performer.
I don't get how the Braves needed LOW salary though? 15 million isn't bad for Upton but it's still a lot of money. They wanted Span and Willingham together? That's the only way it's even close to 15 million they just shelled out and the years are off on that.
I doubt Span has that much value. They guy is always hurt and has no power. Solid year last year but again he was hurt. The two years before that big time question marks. Obviously what's being offered for him isn't that great at this point.

Upton isn't a bad deal by any means. It's not a particularly good deal, either. He could rebound or he could continue to fade into his 30s. He doesn't get on base and that's a HUGE checkmark against him going forward.

Like many others, you're drastically underrating Span. The dude plays good defense at a premium position and gets on base 36% of the time. His lowest WAR in the past five years is 1.5 with most seasons bouncing between a 2.5 and 4+ WAR. That's a damned good player, doubly so if you have him locked up for three more seasons at a combined price of $20m (ie. 1 1/2 years of BJ Upton's new contract).

Upton has 4000 PAs and a 13.6 WAR. Denard has 2700 PAs and a 16.5 WAR.

edit: Interesting that FanGraphs doesn't like Span as much as BBRef while it loooooves Upton. Upton's career WAR is 23 and Span's 16 according to FG.

Either way, the two are comparable players (they just go about getting there very differently), only Span is less than half the price.

darin617
11-29-2012, 03:16 PM
The Braves should still have interest in Span. They still lack a leadoff hitter and could put him in LF.

biggentleben
11-29-2012, 03:19 PM
The Braves should still have interest in Span. They still lack a leadoff hitter and could put him in LF.

Upton would move to left, and they still have interest, but the Twins have reportedly been asking for Mike Minor or Kris Medlen.

mike wants wins
11-29-2012, 03:19 PM
Given their frugality, and that they just added 15million to their payroll, do you all really think they will add Span?

biggentleben
11-29-2012, 04:22 PM
Given their frugality, and that they just added 15million to their payroll, do you all really think they will add Span?

Not now that he was traded for a minor league pitcher, but the Braves have $25-35M to play with.