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View Full Version : Scott Feldman, the Cubs, and how Theo Epstien is making Terry Ryan's life miserable



nicksaviking
11-27-2012, 10:35 AM
The Cubs just gave Scott Feldman, a back end of the rotation/swingman, a $6 million base salary plus incentives. The Cubs certainly seem to be setting the market for low-end starting pitching options with this signing and the generous deal they gave to Scott Baker. I'd guess moves like this indicate there will be little to no starting pitching bargain shopping this holiday season, even to get a guy who should profile to be a number five starter, Terry Ryan is still going to have to overpay.

I sure hope he has a few deals in the works for young controlable starters because I'm going to be pretty disappointed if the Twins walk away from this offseason having to overpay for a soft tossing number 4 starter like Joe Saunders or Brandon McCarthy and still be forced to pay $8 million+. In doing so, Ryan would then have to try to con the fanbase into believing that one of these bums is actually an ace.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-27-2012, 10:43 AM
Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 10:44 AM
Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 10:47 AM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

John Bonnes
11-27-2012, 11:03 AM
Darn. Feldman was a sleeper that I liked.

nicksaviking
11-27-2012, 11:03 AM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 11:08 AM
A number 2 starter is worth 12 to 15 million a year, not 6.

nicksaviking
11-27-2012, 11:10 AM
Terry Ryan doesn't have Fangraphs bookmarked. $6 million is a 2-3 for the Twins.

Seth Stohs
11-27-2012, 11:27 AM
I'm in agreement with those that anything over about $3-4 million for Feldman was too much, so this signing does nothing for me...

Boom Boom
11-27-2012, 11:31 AM
Poor TR. How's he supposed to put together a contending rotation on a shoestring budget now?

minn55441
11-27-2012, 11:51 AM
TR was on talkin' Twins last night.

After listening the three things I cam away from the discussion. I"m para-phrasing here, so give me a little latitude.

1) Essentially all of the free agent money will be devoted to Pitching.
2) Signing prior to the winter meetings tend to be overpriced.
3) He is expecting to sign enough quality starting pitching so that the team can compete in 2013

The Jury is obviously still out, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt until we start to see him actually make some moves.

He either knows what he is doing and will put together a quality pitching staff or the game has passed him by and it is time for a change. Either way we should know on April 1st.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 12:24 PM
We can keep consoling ourselves by saying this GM paid too much for that starter and that GM paid too much for that starter...until it finally clicks that the only way you sign anyone decent is by 'spending too much'...which turns into it really not being too much cause it's the amount needed to get the job done.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 12:25 PM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

6 million isn't gonna get you a #2 or even a top notch #3.

Jim Crikket
11-27-2012, 12:38 PM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

6 million isn't gonna get you a #2 or even a top notch #3.

If you change a couple of words to re-write the sentence as, "If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to BE THE TWINS' 2-3 starter," it becomes a much more accurate statement... unfortunately.

Twins Twerp
11-27-2012, 12:40 PM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

6 million isn't gonna get you a #2 or even a top notch #3.

Would a "Top Notch #3" be a bottom notch #2?

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 12:41 PM
Like minn55441, I listened to Ryan on ESPN 1500 with Mackey and Pelissaro last night. I was heartened in particular by one statement in response to a question about the trade involving Buehrle: "I respect Buehrle a lot....but we need several Buehrle's". He left the very distinct impression that he intends to solve the rotation problem, to do it with at least Buehrle quality pitchers, and that he has the financial muscle to do it.

I agree with minn55441. Time will tell. I personally am optimistic, and think the critics are premature in judging things, especially ahead of the winter meetings next week.

There are tons of Feldman's and Baker's out there. I'm holding out for two pitchers better than those two, maybe a third.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 12:42 PM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

6 million isn't gonna get you a #2 or even a top notch #3.

Would a "Top Notch #3" be a bottom notch #2?

Sure, why not :-)

twinkiesfan11
11-27-2012, 12:52 PM
I'm in agreement with those that anything over about $3-4 million for Feldman was too much, so this signing does nothing for me...

I'm so sick of Twins apologists and statements like this, quit trying to be an armchair GM. IT'S A ONE YEAR FRICKING DEAL! I don't even care about Feldman specifically, but to justify passing on a player over $2-3 million on a ONE YEAR contract?!?! Come on!!

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 12:59 PM
I'm in agreement with those that anything over about $3-4 million for Feldman was too much, so this signing does nothing for me...

I'm so sick of Twins apologists and statements like this, quit trying to be an armchair GM. IT'S A ONE YEAR FRICKING DEAL! I don't even care about Feldman specifically, but to justify passing on a player over $2-3 million on a ONE YEAR contract?!?! Come on!!

Makes one wonder what kind of free agent pitcher you'd expect to be able to sign for 6M a year...

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 01:10 PM
Tons of Feldmans and Bakers? What is your definition of "tons"? Because I would put them in the top 20 easily.

nicksaviking
11-27-2012, 01:11 PM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

6 million isn't gonna get you a #2 or even a top notch #3.

Have you not been following this team? The Twins annually wedge a $6 million pitcher into the 2 spot regardless of his actual talents. This team hasn't overpayed for pitching unless they wore a Twins uniform the previous year.

jharaldson
11-27-2012, 01:28 PM
I agree with minn55441. Time will tell. I personally am optimistic, and think the critics are premature in judging things, especially ahead of the winter meetings next week.

When would critics not be premature? I agree that Terry Ryan deserves more time but I would put out there that if he has not signed a starting pitcher to a guaranteed Major League contract by December 31 I would start thinking this offseason feels like a failure.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-27-2012, 01:35 PM
Okay guys...the ONLY reason the Cubs signed Baker and Feldman is to hope they show they are healthy and can be somewhat good in a possible attempt to then dump them midseason in hopes to get a decent prospect. The only way people want to go to the crappy Cubs is if they overpaid and that they did for Feldman and Baker.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 01:52 PM
Fangraphs believes he will be league average and is a great value. I do not think he is the pitcher you all think he is. He us making Ryan's job hard because he is taking all the bargains off the table, reducing the supply of pitchers....

I would have been happy with Feldmen as a sleeper pick up, but when you pay a guy $6 million it kind of erases the UNDERRATED/SLEEPER label from your title. If the Twins pay a starter $6 million, he's probably going to be expected to 2-3 starter.

6 million isn't gonna get you a #2 or even a top notch #3.

Have you not been following this team? The Twins annually wedge a $6 million pitcher into the 2 spot regardless of his actual talents. This team hasn't overpayed for pitching unless they wore a Twins uniform the previous year.

Yes, I've been following this team...doesn't mean I'm gonna stop pointing out the idiocy of their actions

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 01:53 PM
I agree with minn55441. Time will tell. I personally am optimistic, and think the critics are premature in judging things, especially ahead of the winter meetings next week.

When would critics not be premature? I agree that Terry Ryan deserves more time but I would put out there that if he has not signed a starting pitcher to a guaranteed Major League contract by December 31 I would start thinking this offseason feels like a failure.

It's not like Terry Ryan was away from the team when Smith was the GM...

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 01:58 PM
It's not like Terry Ryan was away from the team when Smith was the GM...

While you're not necessarily doing this, Puck, this kind of thinking is one of my biggest pet peeves of late.

We just don't know what kind of influence Ryan had during Smith's term as general manager. He could have stamped approval on every deal the team made. He may have been ignored 90% of the time. Bringing up the fact that he was with the team and implying he held decision-making power during Smith's run is pure conjecture and it's really starting to grate on my nerves.

Ryan is the general manager. Judge him for his actions while he's in the big chair and let us refrain from speculating and gesticulating madly on what he was doing while somebody else was in it. Most of the time, it's nothing more than a platform to bitch about the front office with little or no substantiating evidence to support the claims.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 02:04 PM
It's not like Terry Ryan was away from the team when Smith was the GM...

While you're not necessarily doing this, Puck, this kind of thinking is one of my biggest pet peeves of late.

We just don't know what kind of influence Ryan had during Smith's term as general manager. He could have stamped approval on every deal the team made. He may have been ignored 90% of the time. Bringing up the fact that he was with the team and implying he held decision-making power during Smith's run is pure conjecture and it's really starting to grate on my nerves.

Ryan is the general manager. Judge him for his actions while in the bosses' chair and let's refrain from speculating on what he was doing while somebody else was in it. Most of the time, it's nothing more than a platform to bitch about the front office with little or no substantiating evidence to support the claims.

In this instance, my point is that he didn't just stumble into this situation...he wasn't completely removed...and the pitching situation has been how it's been for a couple years now (even with the fluke pitching we had in 2010). We've needed pitching for awhile now. We've known our system was weak in pitching, from top to bottom, for awhile now. It didn't JUST happen. So this whole, give him time stuff, just doesn't fly for me. Just my opinion. Our pitching is weak at the top (at MLB level and high levels) mostly cause of his poor drafting.

On top of that, when was the last time he ponied up and got us quality pitching from the FA market? We were close in 2006...needed some pitching to get us over the hump...what did he get us?

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 02:11 PM
When will it NOT be premature to judge Ryan's winter moves? Um, spring, after his winter moves have been made.

Tons of Feldman's and Baker's can be defined as a dozen or so free agent pitchers who are valued more highly by the pros, and another dozen or so similarly better pitchers who are available via trade. Is that good enough for you, mike?

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 02:18 PM
If the Twins had signed Baker and Feldman, the vast majority of the comments on here would negative. Ryan would be called names, and be derided as cheap and incompetent for signing two guys who are no better than #4-5-6 starters on a losing team, and risky ones at that.

But, because Ryan did not sign them, he's being called names, and is being derided as cheap and incompetent for not signing two guys who are low-risk solutions as #3-4 starters.

Shocking.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 02:21 PM
That's a fine definition, not one I agree with, but fine. So pretty much 25 or so pitchers either a lot better, or about the same, if I read you correctly. Many of those will get more than 1 year, 6 million dollar deals. How many will get less, and be as effective?

PseudoSABR
11-27-2012, 02:23 PM
I hope this undercuts the notion of bargain deals on pitching--that the Twins could obtain quality arms on the cheap. Considering we'll have to overpay* for pitching. We might as well go big, and overpay for top of the line pitching like Marcum, Haren or Grienke. Wishful thinking, but jesus I can hope.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 02:24 PM
Are there many people calling him names, or even criticizing him here? I am not, I am saying that this is what guys cost and that at some point they will need to make deals like this or more. There is a lot of emotion and name calling about the salaries and abilities of the players, and most of it is in defense if Ryan.

nicksaviking
11-27-2012, 02:31 PM
I'm not upset that Ryan didn't sign either pitcher, there are better arms out there and hopefully Ryan is saving his budget to pay an actual front of the rotation arm $12 million instead of two back end guys $6M each. However, because guys like Feldman are getting $6M, a guy like Shawn Marcum is now going to want to double that seeing as he is twice the pitcher Feldmen is. If this inflation holds true the problem will occur when Ryan gets gunshy at deal time and can't find the courage to pull the trigger on one of the bigger names because the money or years frighten him. He will then be left holding a bag full of money that can only be spent to overpay for the rest of the dredge that remains on the free agency floor.

Boom Boom
11-27-2012, 02:32 PM
If the Twins had signed Baker and Feldman, the vast majority of the comments on here would negative. Ryan would be called names, and be derided as cheap and incompetent for signing two guys who are no better than #4-5-6 starters on a losing team, and risky ones at that.

But, because Ryan did not sign them, he's being called names, and is being derided as cheap and incompetent for not signing two guys who are low-risk solutions as #3-4 starters.

Shocking.

I didn't want Baker or Feldman, so I won't rip Ryan for not signing either of them.

However, I'd definitely be critical if TR went out and signed those two and another Jason Marquis while claiming that he's put together a rotation that can be competitive in 2013. What he needs to do is trade some veterans for young talent and accept the rebuilding process.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 02:34 PM
When will it NOT be premature to judge Ryan's winter moves? Um, spring, after his winter moves have been made.

January 1st is a good place to start. We haven't even made it through the Winter Meetings yet. No significant free agents have signed with clubs outside of the one they played with in 2012. If nothing happens at or in the immediate wake of the Winter Meetings, I will be seriously disappointed. If nothing has happened by the new year, it will be time to grab the pitchforks and torches.

Twins Twerp
11-27-2012, 02:41 PM
I agree with minn55441. Time will tell. I personally am optimistic, and think the critics are premature in judging things, especially ahead of the winter meetings next week.

When would critics not be premature? I agree that Terry Ryan deserves more time but I would put out there that if he has not signed a starting pitcher to a guaranteed Major League contract by December 31 I would start thinking this offseason feels like a failure.

That is by far the dumbest thing I have ever heard. If a team starts out the season with a sub-500 record, and then wins the world series, is it a failure.

If we sign Greinke and Annibal on January 5th will you still have thought it was a failure. Prince Fielder was signed in the Spring last year.

You guys need to take a chill pill. You don't judge a book by the first chapter, read the whole thing, then start the bitchin'. To get mad that we haven't signed a star yet, when no one else has done it, is ass9. These are the people that give bad grades for the MLB draft the next day. Patience is a virtue, assuming makes an ass out of me and you...meandusuming.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-27-2012, 02:42 PM
Feldman+Figgins= Championship

Again, Feldman is garbage, anything more then 2.5 million was a gross overpay. The guy has a career 4.81 ERA and 4.78 in his last 4 seasons. He has also pitched over 151 IP one time in his career. I would have brought him in on a 1-2 mil deal tops, anyone who thinks the Twins missed the boat on him needs to have their head examined.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 02:43 PM
In this instance, my point is that he didn't just stumble into this situation...he wasn't completely removed...and the pitching situation has been how it's been for a couple years now (even with the fluke pitching we had in 2010). We've needed pitching for awhile now. We've known our system was weak in pitching, from top to bottom, for awhile now. It didn't JUST happen. So this whole, give him time stuff, just doesn't fly for me. Just my opinion. Our pitching is weak at the top (at MLB level and high levels) mostly cause of his poor drafting.

On top of that, when was the last time he ponied up and got us quality pitching from the FA market? We were close in 2006...needed some pitching to get us over the hump...what did he get us?

He didn't have much money to play with last offseason and he had a lot of holes to fill. Outside of the Marquis disaster, he did a good job of putting together a solid offense with not a lot of money. He then drafted a bunch of pitchers this past June with the hopes of flipping a few of them into starters on the big league club within 2-3 years.

He's not going to fix this thing overnight. Baseball teams change direction slowly and the guy needs more than 12 months and one draft to get the franchise back on track. I'm not even arguing that he's doing a good job of it, I'm only saying that fans need to have reasonable expectations.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 02:46 PM
If we sign Greinke and Annibal on January 5th will you still have thought it was a failure. Prince Fielder was signed in the Spring last year.

You guys need to take a chill pill. You don't judge a book by the first chapter, read the whole thing, then start the bitchin'. To get mad that we haven't signed a star yet, when no one else has done it, is ass9. These are the people that give bad grades for the MLB draft the next day. Patience is a virtue, assuming makes an ass out of me and you...meandusuming.

I'm a big proponent of the "give 'em time" argument but the Twins can't afford to wait out this market. They need too many arms to sit back and wait for the market to "mature". If they do that, they'll be left with a half dozen Jason Marquis to choose between. The team needs to strike quickly and pick up at least one arm. If they want to wait out the market for a second, I can understand... but that first arm needs to be acquired before the pool thins.

nicksaviking
11-27-2012, 03:00 PM
Outside of the Marquis disaster, he did a good job of putting together a solid offense with not a lot of money.

Which does beg the question, why does Ryan have so much more difficulty evaluating pitchers than hitters? In my opinion, no more soft tossers. If you can't reasonably predict a 7.0 K/9 for a guy, stop looking at him. Most of the perenial winners tolerate one, maybe two such arms in the rotation, and the Twins are already going to fill one spot with Diamond. It's not reasonable to expect the rotation to achieve this in one season, but they need to start the process now.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 03:16 PM
A valid question, to which I can only respond "I have no idea."

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 03:18 PM
My sense is that Ryan senses an urgency this time around, after the risk he took with last year's rotation went so horribly awry. (Yeah, I know, many of you saw it coming, and he didn't. Congratulate yourself.) If Ryan fails to pick up one #2-3 FA starter (Marcum type), and trade for a second#2-3 starter (Delgado type), I will join the pitchfork and torch crowd, but I'm gonna wait to make my trip to Menard's for said items until all the winter horse swapping is over. There's no rule that says Ryan has to solve the problem exclusively via FA signings. He has trade chips and "payroll flexibility." For the first time in many years.

Jim H
11-27-2012, 03:25 PM
That's a fine definition, not one I agree with, but fine. So pretty much 25 or so pitchers either a lot better, or about the same, if I read you correctly. Many of those will get more than 1 year, 6 million dollar deals. How many will get less, and be as effective?

Baker's past history suggests a certain level of effectiveness. Whether he will regain that level immediately coming off TJ surgery is one question. It is also rather questionable that he will be able to pitch more than 120-140 innings at the major league level. As far as Feldman goes, he has been a slightlly more effective Swarzak to this point of his career.

As to the last part of your statement, it is likely that a great many of the guys commanding a lot more than $6 million and probably for multiple years, aren't going to be very effective. It happens every time guys are signed to long term or high paying contracts, that a large per cent don't perform to their contracts. That is one reason GM's look for free agent bargains.

Despite that, Ryan is going to have sign or trade for a couple of guys with large and probably multi year contracts. He will likely try to sign at least one more probably 2, "bargains" as well. I think he has the money to do that. That doesn't mean people won't complain about his choices, or what we have to give up to get whoever he choose.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 03:31 PM
In this instance, my point is that he didn't just stumble into this situation...he wasn't completely removed...and the pitching situation has been how it's been for a couple years now (even with the fluke pitching we had in 2010). We've needed pitching for awhile now. We've known our system was weak in pitching, from top to bottom, for awhile now. It didn't JUST happen. So this whole, give him time stuff, just doesn't fly for me. Just my opinion. Our pitching is weak at the top (at MLB level and high levels) mostly cause of his poor drafting.

On top of that, when was the last time he ponied up and got us quality pitching from the FA market? We were close in 2006...needed some pitching to get us over the hump...what did he get us?

He didn't have much money to play with last offseason and he had a lot of holes to fill. Outside of the Marquis disaster, he did a good job of putting together a solid offense with not a lot of money. He then drafted a bunch of pitchers this past June with the hopes of flipping a few of them into starters on the big league club within 2-3 years.

He's not going to fix this thing overnight. Baseball teams change direction slowly and the guy needs more than 12 months and one draft to get the franchise back on track. I'm not even arguing that he's doing a good job of it, I'm only saying that fans need to have reasonable expectations.

But he did manage to drop payroll by about 18M...but yeah, he needs more than 12 months to fix this...but he also needs to shoulder some blame as to why we are where we are

Kwak
11-27-2012, 03:31 PM
Okay guys...the ONLY reason the Cubs signed Baker and Feldman is to hope they show they are healthy and can be somewhat good in a possible attempt to then dump them midseason in hopes to get a decent prospect. The only way people want to go to the crappy Cubs is if they overpaid and that they did for Feldman and Baker.
The same should be said of the Twins. The biggest differences between the Cubs and the Twins are: the Cubs are a high revenue team and they have (are!) shown a desire to rebuild and seriously compete. $5MM for the Cubs is peanuts, as opposed to the Twins.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 03:32 PM
A valid question, to which I can only respond "I have no idea."

Which post were you responding to?

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 03:35 PM
A valid question, to which I can only respond "I have no idea."

Which post were you responding to?

The post asking why Ryan seems to be able to evaluate hitters but not pitchers.

PseudoSABR
11-27-2012, 03:43 PM
A valid question, to which I can only respond "I have no idea."
My sense is this: Brad Radke ruined the Twins.

At one time there was probably value in soft-tossing, control, durable pitchers. There's a Moneyball aspect at work, perhaps--in that the Twins valued pitchers who limited walks, while the rest of the league, perhaps, undervalued them. It's probably true that Radke was largely undervalued during his career.

I think where things began to break down for the Twins, was the notion that soft-tossing, control pitchers will stay healthier, or necessarily have better, more coachable attitudes. Moreover, that the Twins sense that they could draft and develop such pitchers was obviously overstated, and so was their capacity to milk the free agency or waiver wires for such pitchers.

Let's hope that's changed. I think our most recent draft is an example of that. Having pitchers like Gibson, Baker, Wimmers, Blackburn are assets only if their are combined with lots of other pitchers with a different skill sets.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 03:49 PM
I love how people are praising the Twins for not signing this contract. I'll repeat this again: This is FA. Pitching does not come bargain price. You can get bats fairly cheap, but teams spend money on pitching. Always have, always will. If you're sticking your fingers in your ears and humming to try and explain away your crazy "add three FAs" offseason predictions - just stop.

I'm guessing that this is a well-established Minnesota coping mechanism for why our teams don't spend money. Rather than complaining about a low risk one year deal for a starter, perhaps you should be asking why the Twins aren't willing to make the same gambles? Afterall, overpaying for one year for Feldman sure has a whole helluva lot less risk than giving Marcum (who I like a lot!) the kind of money he's going to demand. Ditto Edwin Jackson or anyone else. A team in this state should be looking to make low-risk short term deals, not huffing and puffing every time they have to fork over an extra million to get it done.

PseudoSABR
11-27-2012, 03:57 PM
I love how people are praising the Twins for not signing this contract. I'll repeat this again: This is FA. Pitching does not come bargain price. You can get bats fairly cheap, but teams spend money on pitching. Always have, always will. If you're sticking your fingers in your ears and humming to try and explain away your crazy "add three FAs" offseason predictions - just stop.

I'm guessing that this is a well-established Minnesota coping mechanism for why our teams don't spend money. Rather than complaining about a low risk one year deal for a starter, perhaps you should be asking why the Twins aren't willing to make the same gambles? Afterall, overpaying for one year for Feldman sure has a whole helluva lot less risk than giving Marcum (who I like a lot!) the kind of money he's going to demand. Ditto Edwin Jackson or anyone else. A team in this state should be looking to make low-risk short term deals, not huffing and puffing every time they have to fork over an extra million to get it done.This is a preemptive lecture. Let's see what they actually do before equating the withholding of judgment with coping mechanisms.

Again, I don't necessarily have faith that the Twins will sign quality pitching, but I'm not going to use Scott freaking Feldman as the soapbox for that argument.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 04:06 PM
This is a preemptive lecture. Let's see what they actually do before equating the withholding of judgment with coping mechanisms.
Again, I don't necessarily have faith that the Twins will sign quality pitching, but I'm not going to use Scott freaking Feldman as the soapbox for that argument.

You missed the point. People appear ready to badmouth every move in which a pitcher makes "too much" while simultaneously being the same people insistent on signing FAs. (See: Dave) Whether the team signs pitchers or not we have to accept that they will be overpaid. We will have to overpay pitching. I don't care what level of faith people have, I'm annoyed that every time a pitcher of any discernible talent signs we have this rush of posters here to tell us it was smart that the Twins didn't throw that much money around.

If you want the Twins to get better in the offseason - stop worrying about the dollar amounts. You'll either be a hypocrite when they do sign someone finally or you've bought into the "Twins Way" of offseason spending hook-line-and sinker. (And, for the record, I'm not even saying the Twins Way is the wrong way. I'd much rather avoid FA altogether unless you can sign guys like Willingham, O-Dog, Doumit, Burton, etc.)

The Cubs are paying guys more than they are worth (let me introduce you to the past 20 years of FA history if you want an actual lecture on the absurdity of this) but they are doing it with low leverage deals that have upside. I would call that smart.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-27-2012, 04:20 PM
This is a preemptive lecture. Let's see what they actually do before equating the withholding of judgment with coping mechanisms.
Again, I don't necessarily have faith that the Twins will sign quality pitching, but I'm not going to use Scott freaking Feldman as the soapbox for that argument.

You missed the point. People appear ready to badmouth every move in which a pitcher makes "too much" while simultaneously being the same people insistent on signing FAs. (See: Dave) Whether the team signs pitchers or not we have to accept that they will be overpaid. We will have to overpay pitching. I don't care what level of faith people have, I'm annoyed that every time a pitcher of any discernible talent signs we have this rush of posters here to tell us it was smart that the Twins didn't throw that much money around.

If you want the Twins to get better in the offseason - stop worrying about the dollar amounts. You'll either be a hypocrite when they do sign someone finally or you've bought into the "Twins Way" of offseason spending hook-line-and sinker. (And, for the record, I'm not even saying the Twins Way is the wrong way. I'd much rather avoid FA altogether unless you can sign guys like Willingham, O-Dog, Doumit, Burton, etc.)

The Cubs are paying guys more than they are worth (let me introduce you to the past 20 years of FA history if you want an actual lecture on the absurdity of this) but they are doing it with low leverage deals that have upside. I would call that smart.

Derp.

I will criticize them once they fail to sign a decent pitcher like Marcum etc, but at this point who has gone off the market thus far? Baker? (Overpaid and won't even be ready until mid season), Guthrie (Do you want to give that turd 3 years?) and Feldman (4.81 ERA enough said)

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 04:32 PM
I agree, Leviathan, that the Cubs are smart for signing Feldman and Baker. But this would ONLY make sense for the Twins if they were supplemental signings. They need two #2-3 starters. Not much need for two more #4-5 starters. Diamond is better than both those guys, and we need two guys who are better than Diamond.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 04:50 PM
Derp.
I will criticize them once they fail to sign a decent pitcher like Marcum etc, but at this point who has gone off the market thus far? Baker? (Overpaid and won't even be ready until mid season), Guthrie (Do you want to give that turd 3 years?) and Feldman (4.81 ERA enough said)

Derp indeed. You mean the same Scott Baker that is slated to be at ST and ready to pitch? Now neither you nor I know how effective or ready he'll be, but that's what is being said by everyone. 5M for that gamble looks pretty good. 4.81 ERA is not something to scoff at given our current woes. And if you think you're going to under pay a quality pitcher in years or money - you're fooling yourself. I like Marcum a lot but he has MAJOR red flags that we're going to have to ignore to get him. Stop pretending there is some sweetheart deal waiting in our future. We'll have to swallow some bitterness to get anyone in FA.

Personally, I'd rather swallow a short-term bitter pill than one that we'll keep tasting for potentially 3-4 years down the road. In either case, bad mouthing other contracts for being "too much" will just inevitably look silly when either a) they don't look that bad in hindsight or b) we sign one of our own.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-27-2012, 04:59 PM
Remind me the last time the Royals or Cubs were relevant? Fact is we should be doing nothing to emulate there lead, I don't care about Theo either who basically lucked into those teams (with Ortiz and Manny in the lineup) then gave out a bunch of ****ty contracts later on.

Until they prove otherwise I'm not going to trust either teams judgement on free agents. Let the trash teams over pay for the garbage on the market. (Baker won't be ready to start come April)

LaBombo
11-27-2012, 05:00 PM
A valid question, to which I can only respond "I have no idea."

Which post were you responding to?

The post asking why Ryan seems to be able to evaluate hitters but not pitchers.

The polite answer is that Ryan has more trouble evaluating pitchers than he does hitters because everyone has more trouble evaluating pitchers than hitters.

A couple of impolite alternatives... Ryan is the anti-empirical GM equivalent of a witch doctor, disdaining all but the most basic and outdated statistical analysis in favor of the insight provided by the same scouting sages who helped the Twins decide to give long-term deals to Tsyoshi Nishioka and Nick Blackburn. I don't believe that's true, but it would explain a great deal.

Another possibility is that Ryan is engaged in a long-range strategy involving a kind of contrarian, Moneyball 2.0 campaign to identify undervalued assets like strikeout-less pitchers and collect them at bargain prices. And maybe we won't see the shocking genius of it until it all comes together in the end, like Brad Pitt finding (spoiler alert!) his wife's head in the box at the end of the movie 'Se7en'.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 05:03 PM
So should I trust Philly and the Yankees, or maybe Texas? Those teams have been winners lately. Should the Twins emulate them? Taking a 1 year risk is less risky than a 4 year risk. I remain in the camp that I will not judge them until early January....unless a large number if pitchers go off the board before that. But I also remain in the group that will doubt something really good is likely to happen, given past performance.

ThePuck
11-27-2012, 05:04 PM
Theo Epstein isn't the Cubs GM...just throwing that out there.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 05:16 PM
Remind me the last time the Royals or Cubs were relevant?

I know in your ducky and bunny universe the Twins are on some pedestal above these teams, but I might remind you to check the standings. Past success has little to do with the future of this team and the moves they should be making with that in mind.

But that's ok....If (more likely when based on past history) Terry Ryan doesn't sign anyone and his reasoning is that none of the players were in a price range they felt "comfortable" with - just make sure you come to his defense.

LaBombo
11-27-2012, 05:33 PM
I don't care about Theo either who basically lucked into those teams (with Ortiz and Manny in the lineup)

Yeah, what a stroke of luck for rookie GM Theo Epstein, finding dusty, forgotten, long-time Red Sock David Ortiz rotting away in a broom closet in the bowels of Fenway Park a couple of months after taking over.

Oh, wait, Epstein signed him after Ryan decided he had no use for a designated hitter who could actually hit.

But having All Stars like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz all make the team as walk-ons who just sort of showed up at spring training they way they did, Theo totally lucked out with those guys.

Hmmm. Come to think of it, he picked all of them in the first or second round of the amateur draft.

Sorry, totally meant to play along in your game of 'portray widely respected GM as lucky rube', but my examples weren't very good.

jokin
11-27-2012, 05:36 PM
Remind me the last time the Royals or Cubs were relevant?

I know in your ducky and bunny universe the Twins are on some pedestal above these teams, but I might remind you to check the standings. Past success has little to do with the future of this team and the moves they should be making with that in mind.

But that's ok....If (more likely when based on past history) Terry Ryan doesn't sign anyone and his reasoning is that none of the players were in a price range they felt "comfortable" with - just make sure you come to his defense.

He won't, he'll just act like it never happened in ducky/bunnyland, but the guy with the thing for birds sure will.

jokin
11-27-2012, 05:37 PM
I don't care about Theo either who basically lucked into those teams (with Ortiz and Manny in the lineup)

Yeah, what a stroke of luck for rookie GM Theo Epstein, finding a dusty, forgotten, long-time Red Sock David Ortiz rotting away in a broom closet in the bowels of Fenway Park a couple of months after taking over.

Oh, wait, Epstein signed him after Ryan decided he had no use for a designated hitter who could actually hit.

But having All Stars like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz all make the team as walk-ons who just sort of showed up at spring training they way they did, Theo totally lucked out with those guys.

Hmmm. Come to think of it, he picked all of them in the first or second round of the amateur draft.

Sorry, totally meant to play along in your game of 'portray widely respected GM as lucky rube', but my examples weren't very good.

:s-instagib: Epic, utter Takedown

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 05:55 PM
jokin, I will be there to criticise Ryan if he fails to procure two #2-3 starters, via trade and FA signings, between now and the start of the season. I said as much earlier in this thread.

Of course, that won't stop you from predicting that I'll defend Ryan regardless, because that's just who you are.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 06:03 PM
I agree, Leviathan, that the Cubs are smart for signing Feldman and Baker. But this would ONLY make sense for the Twins if they were supplemental signings. They need two #2-3 starters. Not much need for two more #4-5 starters. Diamond is better than both those guys, and we need two guys who are better than Diamond.

Frankly, I don't see why the Twins are all that much different than the Cubs in how they should approach things. If you're waiting around to sign players better than Diamond join the rest of the league in that battle. I can appreciate what you want the team to do, just can't get on board with something I find highly unlikely to happen.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 06:07 PM
I agree, Leviathan, that the Cubs are smart for signing Feldman and Baker. But this would ONLY make sense for the Twins if they were supplemental signings. They need two #2-3 starters. Not much need for two more #4-5 starters. Diamond is better than both those guys, and we need two guys who are better than Diamond.

Frankly, I don't see why the Twins are all that much different than the Cubs in how they should approach things. If you're waiting around to sign players better than Diamond join the rest of the league in that battle. I can appreciate what you want the team to do, just can't get on board with something I find highly unlikely to happen.

The Cubs have more money. A lot more money.

They've spent $11.5m on two fringe starters. There's a good chance Ryan doesn't have much more than that to spend, period. I'd rather see Ryan pursue one quality guy than two short-term bums.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 06:23 PM
The Cubs have more money. A lot more money.

They've spent $11.5m on two fringe starters. There's a good chance Ryan doesn't have much more than that to spend, period. I'd rather see Ryan pursue one quality guy than two short-term bums.

That's fine - but then you have to realize the issue with this deal is not that he was overpaid, but that he wasn't what you want. That isn't what others are saying. What this indicates, without question, is that the one guy you want is going to take a LOT of money to sign. So deals like this make sense for a to make if it doesn't want to hamstring itself long-term.

Also, this team needs quantity and quality, so there is something to be said for taking low-risk moves that could pay off. These guys might both be "bums" or they could end up being solid bargains with attractive trade value for a team continuing to rebuild a bad farm.

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 06:24 PM
Just my opinion based on what Ryan has indicated: 1) it's very possible that Ryan DOES have the money to spend on a #2-3 FA starter, whtever market, and 2) despite his penurious past history, Ryan is very possibly highly motivated to add non-fringe ptchers as opposed to the Feldman types.

I know this flies in the face of past history, so I understand and respect the doubt and skepticism. I just believe th economics have changed enough that we could (and should) be pleasantly surprised by what Ryan does this winter. And of cours, jokinwill then sing Ryan's praises from the rooftops.

jokin
11-27-2012, 06:33 PM
Just my opinion based on what Ryan has indicated: 1) it's very possible that Ryan DOES have the money to spend on a #2-3 FA starter, whtever market, and 2) despite his penurious past history, Ryan is very possibly highly motivated to add non-fringe ptchers as opposed to the Feldman types.

I know this flies in the face of past history, so I understand and respect the doubt and skepticism. I just believe th economics have changed enough that we could (and should) be pleasantly surprised by what Ryan does this winter. And of cours, jokinwill then sing Ryan's praises from the rooftops.

Past is Prologue. Let's just say I'm not holding my breath and expectantly warming up my vocal cords for the "praise-singing"...

Top Gun
11-27-2012, 06:38 PM
Nothin is happen because the big guns haven't come up yet. it' just testing the waters.. Haven't any of you done auction drafts? Haven't any of you made trades? I have made thousands of them.

jokin
11-27-2012, 06:40 PM
The Cubs have more money. A lot more money.

They've spent $11.5m on two fringe starters. There's a good chance Ryan doesn't have much more than that to spend, period. I'd rather see Ryan pursue one quality guy than two short-term bums.

That's fine - but then you have to realize the issue with this deal is not that he was overpaid, but that he wasn't what you want. That isn't what others are saying. What this indicates, without question, is that the one guy you want is going to take a LOT of money to sign. So deals like this make sense for a to make if it doesn't want to hamstring itself long-term.

Also, this team needs quantity and quality, so there is something to be said for taking low-risk moves that could pay off. These guys might both be "bums" or they could end up being solid bargains with attractive trade value for a team continuing to rebuild a bad farm.

We've gone one full year with the "new" regime and everything old is new again. Crying poor and TR competing with a torn and tattered rule book well past it's expiration date. What you are advocating for is quite logical, and was logical a year ago- and many of us proposed such an approach then. Is there any indication whatsoever that they've yet figured this out down at One Twins Way? Or is there only just one Twins way- the "penurious" path on which birdwatcher loves treading.

jokin
11-27-2012, 06:43 PM
Nothin is happen because the big guns haven't come up yet. it' just testing the waters.. Haven't any of you done auction drafts? Haven't any of you made trades? I have made thousands of them.

TR should have spent the last 3 months getting his ducks in a row and picking off the low-hanging fruit in the month of November to show the league and the fanbase the seriousness of his intent. As another poster just said, this club needs both quantity and quality. A couple of legit, albeit lower-impact major leaguers should already be on the 2013 roster via trade or FA.

jokin
11-27-2012, 06:51 PM
jokin, I will be there to criticise Ryan if he fails to procure two #2-3 starters, via trade and FA signings, between now and the start of the season. I said as much earlier in this thread.

Of course, that won't stop you from predicting that I'll defend Ryan regardless, because that's just who you are.

You do realize that acquiring two front-end starters with the approach this club takes is next to impossible, right? I am standing by my prediction of an ~$85M payroll. What say you? Two F/End starter acquisitions would push the payroll well past $100M. Do you really see this happening without gutting the team elsewhere on the roster? It's just not the penurious one's style now, is it?

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 06:51 PM
The Twins have plenty of money, they just choose to allocate it differently than the Cubs. There is plenty of money for this payroll to be higher, they have chosen (based on last year) not to spend it on the MLB club salaries.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 06:53 PM
The Cubs have more money. A lot more money.

They've spent $11.5m on two fringe starters. There's a good chance Ryan doesn't have much more than that to spend, period. I'd rather see Ryan pursue one quality guy than two short-term bums.

That's fine - but then you have to realize the issue with this deal is not that he was overpaid, but that he wasn't what you want. That isn't what others are saying. What this indicates, without question, is that the one guy you want is going to take a LOT of money to sign. So deals like this make sense for a to make if it doesn't want to hamstring itself long-term.

Also, this team needs quantity and quality, so there is something to be said for taking low-risk moves that could pay off. These guys might both be "bums" or they could end up being solid bargains with attractive trade value for a team continuing to rebuild a bad farm.

We've gone one full year with the "new" regime and everything old is new again. Crying poor and TR competing with a torn and tattered rule book well past it's expiration date. What you are advocating for is quite logical, and was logical a year ago- and many of us proposed such an approach then. Is there any indication whatsoever that they've yet figured this out down at One Twins Way? Or is there only just one Twins way- the "penurious" path on which birdwatcher loves treading.

Who's crying poor? The Cubs have more money than the Twins. That's all there is to it.

jokin
11-27-2012, 07:00 PM
The Cubs have more money. A lot more money.

They've spent $11.5m on two fringe starters. There's a good chance Ryan doesn't have much more than that to spend, period. I'd rather see Ryan pursue one quality guy than two short-term bums.

That's fine - but then you have to realize the issue with this deal is not that he was overpaid, but that he wasn't what you want. That isn't what others are saying. What this indicates, without question, is that the one guy you want is going to take a LOT of money to sign. So deals like this make sense for a to make if it doesn't want to hamstring itself long-term.

Also, this team needs quantity and quality, so there is something to be said for taking low-risk moves that could pay off. These guys might both be "bums" or they could end up being solid bargains with attractive trade value for a team continuing to rebuild a bad farm.

We've gone one full year with the "new" regime and everything old is new again. Crying poor and TR competing with a torn and tattered rule book well past it's expiration date. What you are advocating for is quite logical, and was logical a year ago- and many of us proposed such an approach then. Is there any indication whatsoever that they've yet figured this out down at One Twins Way? Or is there only just one Twins way- the "penurious" path on which birdwatcher loves treading.

Who's crying poor? The Cubs have more money than the Twins. That's all there is to it.

I thought we fixed the "compete with the big dogs" problem with TF? Your comment sounds like we've time-traveled back to the thrilling days of the Plasti-dome Era.

Kwak
11-27-2012, 07:00 PM
Nothin is happen because the big guns haven't come up yet. it' just testing the waters.. Haven't any of you done auction drafts? Haven't any of you made trades? I have made thousands of them.

TR should have spent the last 3 months getting his ducks in a row and picking off the low-hanging fruit in the month of November to show the league and the fanbase the seriousness of his intent. As another poster just said, this club needs both quantity and quality. A couple of legit, albeit lower-impact major leaguers should already be on the 2013 roster via trade or FA.
That Baker signed elsewhere implies either of the following to me: a) Ryan has seriously underestimated the price of starting pitching or b) every pitcher that receives "a final offer from the Twins "will immediately shop it" and sign elsewhere for slightly more, thus forcing the Twins to make "a blow-away" offer in order to sign a pitcher.

Top Gun
11-27-2012, 07:10 PM
I have played fantasy baseball since 1973 and football since 1982 sometimes in 10 different leagues. Ryan should have made the Marlin, Jays trade but maybe he couldn't, his time will come soon.

jokin
11-27-2012, 07:14 PM
Nothin is happen because the big guns haven't come up yet. it' just testing the waters.. Haven't any of you done auction drafts? Haven't any of you made trades? I have made thousands of them.

TR should have spent the last 3 months getting his ducks in a row and picking off the low-hanging fruit in the month of November to show the league and the fanbase the seriousness of his intent. As another poster just said, this club needs both quantity and quality. A couple of legit, albeit lower-impact major leaguers should already be on the 2013 roster via trade or FA.
That Baker signed elsewhere implies either of the following to me: a) Ryan has seriously underestimated the price of starting pitching or b) every pitcher that receives "a final offer from the Twins "will immediately shop it" and sign elsewhere for slightly more, thus forcing the Twins to make "a blow-away" offer in order to sign a pitcher.

Good points. I'd amend "a" by stating this club has had a serious dis-ability in OVER-estimating the value of their existing starting pitching (Pavano, Blackburn, Marquis, et al)

In regard to Baker, I'd add: c) The club burned any lingering goodwill bridges with how they handled Big Spot Scott and his injury.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 07:29 PM
I thought we fixed the "compete with the big dogs" problem with TF? Your comment sounds like we've time-traveled back to the thrilling days of the Plasti-dome Era.

You're totally right. The Twins are now on par with the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and Cubs.

I don't know what I was thinking, pointing out that some teams have more money to spend on risky free agent-types.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 07:41 PM
1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

Fire Dan Gladden
11-27-2012, 07:44 PM
If the Twins had signed Baker and Feldman, the vast majority of the comments on here would negative. Ryan would be called names, and be derided as cheap and incompetent for signing two guys who are no better than #4-5-6 starters on a losing team, and risky ones at that.

But, because Ryan did not sign them, he's being called names, and is being derided as cheap and incompetent for not signing two guys who are low-risk solutions as #3-4 starters.

Shocking.

That is how the TD post board roles...

jokin
11-27-2012, 07:44 PM
I thought we fixed the "compete with the big dogs" problem with TF? Your comment sounds like we've time-traveled back to the thrilling days of the Plasti-dome Era.

You're totally right. The Twins are now on par with the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and Cubs.

I don't know what I was thinking, pointing out that some teams have more money to spend on risky free agent-types.

Your passive-agressive approach is obvious and a bit tedious at this point. I don't think anyone who knows the answer to 2 + 2 argues that the Twins are on a par with those aformentioned clubs and that's not the point and you know it full well.

The argument is about what was "conceded" that the new approach would supposedly become at the time of the agreement to the commitment to TF- and what has actually taken place in the interim- and you know that is true, as well.

Look, I think we can agree that the current approach of the Twins is like a Model A trying to compete in the Sprint Cup Series. I don't see Oakland, Baltimore or Tampa Bay donning the same old scarf and goggles that the Twins seem to be wearing.

AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS
11-27-2012, 07:46 PM
I have played fantasy baseball since 1973 and football since 1982 sometimes in 10 different leagues. Ryan should have made the Marlin, Jays trade but maybe he couldn't, his time will come soon.

What was watching Charlie Chaplins movies like? Back when you were a kid did you think we would have flying cars by now?

Only kidding. Yes we all wish we could have got Johnson and Buerhle, lets hope hes got something up his sleeve.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 07:46 PM
1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

jokin
11-27-2012, 07:51 PM
1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

Does anyone think Ryan's year-end bonus for 2012 will be based on winning 3 more games than 2011?... or by saving $20M from the payroll? I'm guessing the Twins were MORE profitable this year than last, and will likely be more profitable next year than this year- after a further payroll cut.

Bottom line, the club is waiting for "the turn" of talent in the minors and won't spend one dime more than is necessary until then.

jokin
11-27-2012, 07:54 PM
1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

As a fan, who wouldn't take that choice?

As a player, who would choose the Twins?

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 08:01 PM
Well, that is a self-imposed budget limitation. There is no reason they can't sign a $6MM guy, a $12MM guy, and deal Span or Willingham for a decent prospect (packaging one of them with a decent MN prospect). They have $38MM in margin improvement next year, some of that could be spent this year, easily.

I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 08:08 PM
1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

As a fan, who wouldn't take that choice?

As a player, who would choose the Twins?

All the Twins have to do is offer more money than 29 other teams.

LaBombo
11-27-2012, 08:09 PM
I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

Even two such signings seem like a relative rarity. And it seems like an absurdly optimistic scenario for the Twins relative to their history. There's still plenty of time for Ryan to prove that wrong, but the deals handed out to Guthrie, Baker, and Feldman make that possibility appear even less likely.

jokin
11-27-2012, 08:15 PM
1 year deal for $6MM is risky? What would not be risky?

And, they have $25MM more in income coming next year, cost free. And Morneau's deal ends after this year. They have plenty of money if only they want to spend it. We'll see over the next few weeks....

I'm talking solely about 2013. There's a good chance that if Ryan goes after marginal guys for $6m per year, he wouldn't have any money left for a real starting pitcher that will be with the team for more than one season. These pitching woes aren't going away after this season and if the Twins spend a bunch of money on short-term, marginal pitchers, they just have to do this again next offseason (and the pitching staff is probably awful for a third consecutive season). If given the choice, I'll take one legitimate #2/3 guy over a handful of #4s.

As a fan, who wouldn't take that choice?

As a player, who would choose the Twins?

All the Twins have to do is offer more money than 29 other teams.

Not necessarily always true. A player, and even sometimes his agent, have other factors to consider- ie, the chances for winning, leveraging of the deal down the road for more profit, outside endorsement possibilities, agent currying favor for other clients, the city the team plays in, the league the team plays in, team colors preferred by the player's wife, etc.

Do you deny that in the Twins current competitive state that they are likely not the first team on most FAs wish list?

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 08:18 PM
Free agents, like the overwhelming majority of human brings, follow the money. For every free agents that takes a team-friendly deal, I can show you 20 that followed the dollars. It's a low enough percentage to be unimportant. If the Twins want a good pitcher, they can get one.

jokin
11-27-2012, 08:25 PM
Free agents, like the overwhelming majority of human brings, follow the money. For every free agents that takes a team-friendly deal, I can show you 20 that followed the dollars. It's a low enough percentage to be unimportant. If the Twins want a good pitcher, they can get one.

The 20 that followed the dollars can often make a boatload more money through leveraging their deal through enhanced performance on a winning team and through outside endorsements that could vastly ouststrip the extra million dollars/yr that the Twins might pay. Watch which teams receive the most minutes of coverage on Baseball Tonight and correlate that to endorsement deals and future Free Agency.

Brock Beauchamp
11-27-2012, 08:33 PM
Using that thinking, Miami was the largest city in the US last year and Houston is smaller than Milwaukee. Every city has endorsement opportunities and the Twin Cities are right in the middle of the pack. I've never seen any indication that some teams are better at drawing free agents than others once you get past the Yankees and Dodgers of the world.

John Bonnes
11-27-2012, 08:42 PM
It's interesting to me that there are several middle-tier starting pitching free agents that are signing before the top guys do. There are usually a few, but I don't remember this many in the past. The Cubs and Royals are being aggressive and chasing these guys - Baker, Feldman, E Santana, Guthrie. Everybody else who has signed has just re-signed with their team.

It's a little weird that two team (three if you count the Blue Jays) have driven so much spending so early. I wonder if Theo/Dayton are reading a nutso market or if they're just trying to take care of business early? All three GMs are kind of sabr darlings, too. It'll be interesting to see what we think of these signings at the end of the offseason, or at the end of the season.

John Bonnes
11-27-2012, 08:47 PM
I'll add one thing to my post above....

At the beginning of this offseason, if I had to hope how Ryan would handle shopping for starting pitching, I would have said that I hoped he waited and let the market come to him. There was so much talent on the board and the class was so deep that he was going to have some decent guys fall into his lap if he could just be patient. When he said in our interview that he felt he needed to be aggressive, I cringed.

The salaries are higher than I anticipated, but the class is still just as deep. Now, maybe a few teams like the Cubs/Royals/Blue Jays are going to drive up the demand a bit higher than I thought, but I'd still need to be be convinced this isn't the right strategy.

Kwak
11-27-2012, 08:50 PM
I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

Even two such signings seem like a relative rarity. And it seems like an absurdly optimistic scenario for the Twins relative to their history. There's still plenty of time for Ryan to prove that wrong, but the deals handed out to Guthrie, Baker, and Feldman make that possibility appear even less likely.
I think Ryan only said "three new starting pitchers"--he didn't qualify/embellish the statement with "legit", or "established", etc. He could accomplish said task through trades for high minor league guy(s) and promote them to the rotation, "over-the-hill" veterans, "spot starters", or use theRule 5 draft.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 09:00 PM
Agreed, Ryan never said three legit starting pitchers, that would be what I would do...because winning is my top priority as a fan. And, frankly, they have the money to spend if they really want to.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 09:01 PM
I'll add one thing to my post above....

At the beginning of this offseason, if I had to hope how Ryan would handle shopping for starting pitching, I would have said that I hoped he waited and let the market come to him. There was so much talent on the board and the class was so deep that he was going to have some decent guys fall into his lap if he could just be patient. When he said in our interview that he felt he needed to be aggressive, I cringed.

The salaries are higher than I anticipated, but the class is still just as deep. Now, maybe a few teams like the Cubs/Royals/Blue Jays are going to drive up the demand a bit higher than I thought, but I'd still need to be be convinced this isn't the right strategy.


Wait how long, and for how many good pitchers to be signed? What does this mean, in your mind?

birdwatcher
11-27-2012, 09:12 PM
mike wants wins, you're correct in saying the Twins have the money. They CAN afford two "legitimate" FA pitchers, say, a Marcum and a McCarthy. AND, IN ADDITION they can trade for a second #2-3, even afford to sweeten a deal by paying some of Morneau's salary to seal a deal, for example. Ryan said he won't encounter financial constraints in going about solving the problem. This is important.

So, if he does what many expect- strictly bargain-hunting and dumpster-diving- giving us nothing more than over-the hill vets like Marquis, rule 5 bets, and Feldman types, he will earn every ounce of criticism.

My theory is he's not being aggressive on these initial fringe guys like Baker and Feldman because they're a dime a dozen and he already has a half-dozen of them. Let's see.

mike wants wins
11-27-2012, 09:26 PM
Agreed, let's see. There are still pitchers out there, and OFers to be traded....

Linus
11-27-2012, 09:29 PM
Nothin is happen because the big guns haven't come up yet. it' just testing the waters.. Haven't any of you done auction drafts? Haven't any of you made trades? I have made thousands of them.

TR should have spent the last 3 months getting his ducks in a row and picking off the low-hanging fruit in the month of November to show the league and the fanbase the seriousness of his intent. As another poster just said, this club needs both quantity and quality. A couple of legit, albeit lower-impact major leaguers should already be on the 2013 roster via trade or FA.
That Baker signed elsewhere implies either of the following to me: a) Ryan has seriously underestimated the price of starting pitching or b) every pitcher that receives "a final offer from the Twins "will immediately shop it" and sign elsewhere for slightly more, thus forcing the Twins to make "a blow-away" offer in order to sign a pitcher.

Or that he didn't want to use part of his money on an injury prone, inconsistent starter coming off Tommy John surgery who likely won't be ready to start the season and whose effectiveness is a complete unknown going forward. Everybody seems to be glossing over that many guys that have TJ never come back even close to what they once were. This might work out for the Cubs but let's get over the idea that this signing is some lead pipe cinch for success.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 09:34 PM
Or that he didn't want to use part of his money on an injury prone, inconsistent starter coming off Tommy John surgery who likely won't be ready to start the season and whose effectiveness is a complete unknown going forward. Everybody seems to be glossing over that many guys that have TJ never come back even close to what they once were. This might work out for the Cubs but let's get over the idea that this signing is some lead pipe cinch for success.

Which FA pitchers don't have blemishes? You seem to imply there are some.

Linus
11-27-2012, 09:59 PM
I would consider those major question marks, not blemishes.

TheLeviathan
11-27-2012, 10:06 PM
Whether you call them "major" "semi-major" "sorta-kinda" or whatever kind of question marks your analysis fails to take into account the fact that Baker got 1 year and 5M. Edwin Jackson - he of serious consistency issues - may cost double that a year and several times that in guaranteed money overall.

If you're waiting for this particular free agent class to yield you a guy without question marks at a reasonable price, I also have heard about an apocalypse coming that you want to stock up for at the low, low markup price of 700%. Instead, it's far more reasonable to look at things through the prism of how much money did they invest for what kind of risk. By the end of this offseason 5M in guaranteed money may look very reasonable for that set of risks. I'd bet it will with the money floating around.

Kwak
11-27-2012, 11:26 PM
Whether you call them "major" "semi-major" "sorta-kinda" or whatever kind of question marks your analysis fails to take into account the fact that Baker got 1 year and 5M. Edwin Jackson - he of serious consistency issues - may cost double that a year and several times that in guaranteed money overall.

If you're waiting for this particular free agent class to yield you a guy without question marks at a reasonable price, I also have heard about an apocalypse coming that you want to stock up for at the low, low markup price of 700%. Instead, it's far more reasonable to look at things through the prism of how much money did they invest for what kind of risk. By the end of this offseason 5M in guaranteed money may look very reasonable for that set of risks. I'd bet it will with the money floating around.
I totally agree, Ryan wouldn't have offered Baker a contract if he wasn't convinced he was worth the risk. I think the offer got "shopped" and Baker signed with the Cubs. I also don't think that Baker will be held to some predetermined innings limit. IIRC, Liriano pitched nearly 200 innings at all levels of baseball in 2008.

Shane Wahl
11-27-2012, 11:54 PM
Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

This is just false. First, the Cubs organization is very, very stupid. And they are my second favorite team, by far. They are just dumb.

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

Shane Wahl
11-27-2012, 11:56 PM
TR was on talkin' Twins last night.

After listening the three things I cam away from the discussion. I"m para-phrasing here, so give me a little latitude.

1) Essentially all of the free agent money will be devoted to Pitching.
2) Signing prior to the winter meetings tend to be overpriced.
3) He is expecting to sign enough quality starting pitching so that the team can compete in 2013

The Jury is obviously still out, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt until we start to see him actually make some moves.

He either knows what he is doing and will put together a quality pitching staff or the game has passed him by and it is time for a change. Either way we should know on April 1st.

Exactly. The Twins could have signed Edwin Jackson late-ish last season after all. And they should have. Again, the Cubs are stupid.

Nick Nelson
11-27-2012, 11:57 PM
Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.
I think this is a different animal. Basically every signing we've seen thus far has been higher than expected (significantly so in some cases) and the big-market teams have barely dipped their toes in the water.

Riverbrian
11-28-2012, 12:00 AM
Cue the Counting Crows...

It'll be "A long December" (if everyone goes nuts and throws tomatoes at Terry Ryan every time a player signs with another team)

"And there's reason to believe... Maybe this year will be better than the last" (it has to get better...TR has said he's focused on pitching)

"I can't remember the last thing that you said" (I can't remember **** these days).

jokin
11-28-2012, 12:14 AM
Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

This is just false. First, the Cubs organization is very, very stupid. And they are my second favorite team, by far. They are just dumb.

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

I think what you're saying was once true, but things are quickly changing just below the surface for the Cubs. They were very shrewd signing Maholm last year and flipping him for a top-10 pitching prospect from the Braves (Vizcaino) along with another good looking pitcher ( a scenario I begged the Twins to take by signing Maholm, Bedard and Jackson last spring).

As a Cubs fan, you do realize that between FA, trades and waiver acquisitions (another area where Ryan has been lacking, especially in such an advantageous position), the Cubs have acquired 10 RHP since July 31, right?!? They offloaded some hefty salaries ( and they have 3 more PTBNL picks coming besides) and got another top-10 infielder (Christian Villenueva). They established the future direction of the team when they signed Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler (going to be a monster) to relatively inexpensive long-term deals. And they got Rob Deer in as a hitting coach.

If things don't pan out in the first half of 2013, as is likely, they just flip these one-year contracts and unload more salaries for more prospects. Lather, Rinse, Repeat. Watch out come 2014.


If Terry Ryan could only have been just half as "stupid" as the Cubs have been over the last 7 months.

beckmt
11-28-2012, 12:58 AM
Let's see here. I do not think Feldman was a viable option. Twins are talking to Liarino's agent according to mlbtraderumors. Do Lianino have more stuff than Baker, could Bobby Cuellar fix him, will he be cheap. Probably all three and most of the posters here would not like the risk. Read the mlbtraderumors part on the AL Central. They expect the Twins to make some trades and sign some pitchers, and while not always close to correct have many sources. Expect Span to be in a deal for some pitching along with maybe another player or two Then still hope for 1 major FA signing (Marcum is my choice). McCartney would not be bad. See what happens and discuss this after the winter meetings.
Liriano is exactly the type of pitcher referred above with a higher upside and probably cheaper. Did not see this coming, but while not my choice would not be the worst thing in the world.

Shane Wahl
11-29-2012, 12:53 AM
Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

This is just false. First, the Cubs organization is very, very stupid. And they are my second favorite team, by far. They are just dumb.

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

I think what you're saying was once true, but things are quickly changing just below the surface for the Cubs. They were very shrewd signing Maholm last year and flipping him for a top-10 pitching prospect from the Braves (Vizcaino) along with another good looking pitcher ( a scenario I begged the Twins to take by signing Maholm, Bedard and Jackson last spring).

As a Cubs fan, you do realize that between FA, trades and waiver acquisitions (another area where Ryan has been lacking, especially in such an advantageous position), the Cubs have acquired 10 RHP since July 31, right?!? They offloaded some hefty salaries ( and they have 3 more PTBNL picks coming besides) and got another top-10 infielder (Christian Villenueva). They established the future direction of the team when they signed Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler (going to be a monster) to relatively inexpensive long-term deals. And they got Rob Deer in as a hitting coach.

If things don't pan out in the first half of 2013, as is likely, they just flip these one-year contracts and unload more salaries for more prospects. Lather, Rinse, Repeat. Watch out come 2014.


If Terry Ryan could only have been just half as "stupid" as the Cubs have been over the last 7 months.

Ok, that is a fair analysis. The Cubs are taking the view that they can spend money to trade for prospects as well (which the Twins foolishly didn't do in 2012. The Maholm trade was remarkable. Still though, that team makes Soriano kind of contracts and trades prospects for Matt Garza. They got rid of Matt Murton for no reason, and didn't bother with keeping Aramis for whatever dumb reason.

snepp
11-29-2012, 01:01 AM
Still though, that team makes Soriano kind of contracts and trades prospects for Matt Garza. They got rid of Matt Murton for no reason, and didn't bother with keeping Aramis for whatever dumb reason.

And how much of that are the new decision makers responsible for?