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mnfanforlife
11-10-2012, 08:15 PM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1165-Pickin-Berrios

righty8383
11-10-2012, 10:43 PM
I hope his days in rookie ball are behind him. He has nothing left to prove. Either start him in Cedar Rapids or maybe extended spring training and he can join the Kernals in May or June(this would keep his innings down for his 1st full season of pro ball). If he dominates the midwest league he could be put on the fast track in 2014 and have the chance to play at a couple levels.

nicksaviking
11-11-2012, 12:38 AM
Hopefully they have him break in the organization's new Midwest League affiliate. Still, the Twins MO is to keep high school drafted players at low A for an entire season with nearly no exceptions, so I doubt he gets to Ft. Myers even if he pitches flawlessly.

glunn
11-11-2012, 03:21 AM
I see no reason not to move him up to Ft. Meyers is he does well at Cedar Rapids.

Seth Stohs
11-11-2012, 08:20 AM
They won't (And shouldn't) want him to get more than about 120 innings next year. My assumption is he'll go to Extended Spring Training for 6 weeks or so to help do just that. The other option is to have him pitch out of the bullpen for the first half of the season and then start during the second half.

twinsfaninsaudi
11-11-2012, 09:29 AM
Bring 'em north!

beckmt
11-11-2012, 09:35 AM
Would like to see him start in Cedar Rapids and move up to Ft. Myers if he pitches well in the Midwest league. Need to move these arms up as fast as they can take it.

mnfanforlife
11-11-2012, 12:11 PM
Bring 'em north!

Hopefully we will see Berrios for the ML club in 2014 after dominating AA ball, that is, if he can get to A+ this season.

mnfanforlife
11-11-2012, 12:15 PM
I see no reason not to move him up to Ft. Meyers is he does well at Cedar Rapids.

Thats assuming the Twins let him pitch in Cedar Rapids to start the year, otherwise he wont have time to get to Ft. Myers

mnfanforlife
11-11-2012, 12:21 PM
They won't (And shouldn't) want him to get more than about 120 innings next year. My assumption is he'll go to Extended Spring Training for 6 weeks or so to help do just that. The other option is to have him pitch out of the bullpen for the first half of the season and then start during the second half.

I could def see the ORG starting him in ELZ after the draft and having him start games but keeping him on a pitch and/or innings limit. Once short season is over, they will probably let him go to Cedar Rapids for a few more appearances. Starter or reliever there, I dont know.

mike wants wins
11-11-2012, 03:35 PM
They won't (And shouldn't) want him to get more than about 120 innings next year. My assumption is he'll go to Extended Spring Training for 6 weeks or so to help do just that. The other option is to have him pitch out of the bullpen for the first half of the season and then start during the second half.

Why? other than being conservative with his healthy 19 year old arm, why?

Seth Stohs
11-11-2012, 03:53 PM
They won't (And shouldn't) want him to get more than about 120 innings next year. My assumption is he'll go to Extended Spring Training for 6 weeks or so to help do just that. The other option is to have him pitch out of the bullpen for the first half of the season and then start during the second half.

Why? other than being conservative with his healthy 19 year old arm, why?

That would be the reason. He's long and lanky. He's not built like Felix Hernandez. It's wise to be patient. Also, reports from Instructs said he really struggled and tired. Not unusual at all.

Brad Swanson
11-11-2012, 04:12 PM
If he is in the Majors in 2014, he'll be 21 years old. I am excited about what he did last year too, but I think that is pushing it a lot. If he is in AA by 2014, I'll be more than happy with that.

I'd be very surprised if he made it to Ft. Myers in 2013. There just isn't a reason to push him that quickly. The only way it happens is if he is so completely dominant that they can't hold him back any longer.

Brad Swanson
11-11-2012, 04:14 PM
Oh, for what it's worth, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus says he pitches with serious #rig.

kab21
11-11-2012, 08:15 PM
0.1% chance he is in the majors in 2014. If he is then he's also getting consideration of being a top 10 overall prospect.

The early reports were that he was quite polished for a HS'er so it wasn't surprising that he did well in rk ball. I completely expect him to be in Cedar Rapids by June if not at the beginning of the season. I understand that it's the cool thing to do on here but it's tough to promote aggessively in the low minors when you only have mediocre prospects.

Madre Dos
11-11-2012, 09:10 PM
Jose stayed in my home while in Elizabethton. He is polite and easy to get along with. He doesn't eat shrimp and he really likes cookie and cream ice cream. (two very important things for a host mom to know!) Good luck Jose!! You will go far.

mnfanforlife
11-11-2012, 11:47 PM
Jose stayed in my home while in Elizabethton. He is polite and easy to get along with. He doesn't eat shrimp and he really likes cookie and cream ice cream. (two very important things for a host mom to know!) Good luck Jose!! You will go far.

Cool inside information about our best pitching prospect! Thank you for sharing! Do you know if Jose is coming back to live with you next summer?

Madre Dos
11-12-2012, 06:36 PM
Jose stayed in my home while in Elizabethton. He is polite and easy to get along with. He doesn't eat shrimp and he really likes cookie and cream ice cream. (two very important things for a host mom to know!) Good luck Jose!! You will go far.

Cool inside information about our best pitching prospect! Thank you for sharing! Do you know if Jose is coming back to live with you next summer?

I don't know. I'm going to spring training in March ( i still have about 30 "baseball sons" in the organization). I try to get all of them out to dinner. We have to work around English lessons! I usually have a list of 13 or so that want to stay here if they come to Elizabethton. I find out about 4 or 5 days before they get on the bus in fort myers who is going to be here.

johnnydakota
11-12-2012, 08:08 PM
Jose stayed in my home while in Elizabethton. He is polite and easy to get along with. He doesn't eat shrimp and he really likes cookie and cream ice cream. (two very important things for a host mom to know!) Good luck Jose!! You will go far.

Cool inside information about our best pitching prospect! Thank you for sharing! Do you know if Jose is coming back to live with you next summer?

I don't know. I'm going to spring training in March ( i still have about 30 "baseball sons" in the organization). I try to get all of them out to dinner. We have to work around English lessons! I usually have a list of 13 or so that want to stay here if they come to Elizabethton. I find out about 4 or 5 days before they get on the bus in fort myers who is going to be here.
gracias querida dios te bendiga

mnfanforlife
11-13-2012, 08:44 AM
Very nice! I dont mean to be rude, but I am hoping Berrios gets to skip rookie ball in Elizabethton this year. But if he does end up there I hope he gets to have some ice cream with yall!

ashburyjohn
11-16-2012, 06:45 PM
> If it was up to me, I would start him in Cedar Rapids and play it by ear from there.

Get ready for more Cedar Rapids Kernels puns this upcoming season!

mnfanforlife
11-20-2012, 10:17 AM
> If it was up to me, I would start him in Cedar Rapids and play it by ear from there.

Get ready for more Cedar Rapids Kernels puns this upcoming season!

HAHA! Corny..

70charger
11-20-2012, 04:30 PM
> If it was up to me, I would start him in Cedar Rapids and play it by ear from there.

Get ready for more Cedar Rapids Kernels puns this upcoming season!

The puns will be knee-high by July.

mnfanforlife
11-21-2012, 09:41 AM
Oh, for what it's worth, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus says he pitches with serious #rig.

Could you clarify what you're talking about here? (#rig)

mnfanforlife
11-23-2012, 10:01 AM
If he is in the Majors in 2014, he'll be 21 years old. I am excited about what he did last year too, but I think that is pushing it a lot. If he is in AA by 2014, I'll be more than happy with that.

I'd be very surprised if he made it to Ft. Myers in 2013. There just isn't a reason to push him that quickly. The only way it happens is if he is so completely dominant that they can't hold him back any longer.

Dont you think that our need at Starting Pitcher would be a good reason to fast track Berrios in 2013?

kab21
11-23-2012, 07:17 PM
Need should not dictate lower level promotions. He should be promoted when he is ready.

mnfanforlife
11-24-2012, 05:42 PM
Need should not dictate lower level promotions. He should be promoted when he is ready.

Are you suggesting that he is not ready to be promoted past rookie ball? What level do you think Berrios is "ready" for? What constitutes being "ready" in your opinion? If you use statistics to measure "readiness", than where would Berrios' stats place him next year, in your opinion?

beckmt
11-24-2012, 06:51 PM
I would start him in Ft. Myers and if he excels promote him to New Britian.

PseudoSABR
11-24-2012, 07:25 PM
No reason to hurry this guy. New Britain next year seems like a total reach.

Brad Swanson
11-24-2012, 10:35 PM
No reason to hurry this guy. New Britain next year seems like a total reach.

With you, in fact, New Britain in two seasons is a reach. Player development not player acceleration. What's the rush?

Physics Guy
11-24-2012, 11:16 PM
He should start in Cedar Rapids. If he earns it, he will be promoted to Ft. Myers mid-season. That gives him a shot at New Britain sometime the following season. We'll be lucky if he gets a cup of coffee at Target Field by 2015.

mike wants wins
11-25-2012, 01:41 PM
Right, he's 3-4 years out, minimum. Agreed.

Shane Wahl
11-25-2012, 02:17 PM
Jose stayed in my home while in Elizabethton. He is polite and easy to get along with. He doesn't eat shrimp and he really likes cookie and cream ice cream. (two very important things for a host mom to know!) Good luck Jose!! You will go far.

Cool inside information about our best pitching prospect! Thank you for sharing! Do you know if Jose is coming back to live with you next summer?

I don't know. I'm going to spring training in March ( i still have about 30 "baseball sons" in the organization). I try to get all of them out to dinner. We have to work around English lessons! I usually have a list of 13 or so that want to stay here if they come to Elizabethton. I find out about 4 or 5 days before they get on the bus in fort myers who is going to be here.

There really ought to a story written about you and the other host families for these guys.

ThePuck
11-25-2012, 02:20 PM
why are so many fans completely content to say a pitcher drafted as high as Berrios was will take 4 or more years in the minors to make it to the show? If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

PseudoSABR
11-25-2012, 03:19 PM
If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

kab21
11-25-2012, 06:57 PM
Need should not dictate lower level promotions. He should be promoted when he is ready.

Are you suggesting that he is not ready to be promoted past rookie ball? What level do you think Berrios is "ready" for? What constitutes being "ready" in your opinion? If you use statistics to measure "readiness", than where would Berrios' stats place him next year, in your opinion?

He's absolutely ready for Cedar Rapids. I'm disagreeing with the general notion that he needs to be fast tracked because the Twins have a need at pitcher. Many in this thread are suggesting that he should get to Ft Myers next season and start 2014 in NB. Perhaps that could happen but let's see what he does in full season ball before we start promoting him beyond Cedar Rapids.

mnfanforlife
11-25-2012, 08:15 PM
why are so many fans completely content to say a pitcher drafted as high as Berrios was will take 4 or more years in the minors to make it to the show? If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

Realistically: he should start 2013 in low-A, finish 2013 in A+, then start 2014 in A+ with a shot to finish in AA or higher.

jtrinaldi
11-25-2012, 08:51 PM
Berrios will be in CR around May
Buxton in June
Kepler/Goodrum to start

Top Gun
11-25-2012, 09:10 PM
The Twins are considering Kyle Gibson for their Opening Day rotation.

Gibson is almost fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and finished with 75 innings between the regular season and Arizona Fall League. With only Scott Diamond returning to next year's rotation, there's little upside for the Twins to stash him if he's still healthy in spring training. Earlier this offseason, GM Terry Ryan said he expects Gibson to be limited to 140 innings in 2013.


Source: ESPN 1500 Twin Citie (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_How_does_a_healthy_Kyle_Gibson_fit_into_Twi ns_2013_plans112512?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+1500espn%2Fsportswire%2Ftwins +%28150)

mike wants wins
11-26-2012, 08:50 AM
I will not speak for others, but I am posting what I think is likely to happen, not what I would do.

ThePuck
11-26-2012, 10:07 AM
why are so many fans completely content to say a pitcher drafted as high as Berrios was will take 4 or more years in the minors to make it to the show? If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

Realistically: he should start 2013 in low-A, finish 2013 in A+, then start 2014 in A+ with a shot to finish in AA or higher.

That didn't really answer my question...

ThePuck
11-26-2012, 10:38 AM
If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.

mike wants wins
11-26-2012, 10:44 AM
I do not think everyone is ok with that...but not sure what we can do about it either...

PseudoSABR
11-26-2012, 12:49 PM
If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.Five years? Three to four for a highschooler is completely normal, dude.

ThePuck
11-26-2012, 01:03 PM
If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.Five years? Three to four for a highschooler is completely normal, dude.

Some are saying he's still 3-4 years out, minimum...

sorney
11-26-2012, 01:40 PM
If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.Five years? Three to four for a highschooler is completely normal, dude.

Some are saying he's still 3-4 years out, minimum...

If he doesn't blow out his arm, or doesn't stall out vs better competition.....

righty8383
11-26-2012, 01:43 PM
I think he will continue to dominate and make his debut at the age of 20. (he turns 21 in May, 2015)

Jim H
11-26-2012, 02:37 PM
Seth suggested earlier in this thread that the Twins may keep Berrios in extended Spring Training to protect his arm/ limit his innings. I have to confess that I don't entirely understand this. While he is in extended Spring Training he will be pitching on a regular schedule and actually pitching in controlled games. I can understand where you might not want to sent a young Puerto Rican kid up to the Midwest League to pitch in what could be extremely cold conditions in April. I don't think the overall wear and tear on a young man's arm will be a lot different pitching in extended Spring Training or the Midwest League, however.

TRex
11-26-2012, 04:31 PM
Why, exactly, do you think that extended spring is no different than the MWL? Is pitcher usage in the MWL then also no different than the Arizona fall league?

Although I must confess to having no specific data on extended spring box scores, I doubt that pitchers in extended spring average 6 innings per start like good MWL pitchers. Last fall, Berrios averaged only 3.2 innings per start.

mike wants wins
11-26-2012, 04:34 PM
So have him start and pitch 3 innings in the Midwest League. Challenge him.

kab21
11-27-2012, 08:40 AM
Some are saying he's still 3-4 years out, minimum...

If he's up in 3-4 yrs he will be 21-22 yrs old. Start naming non-elite prospects that are up for good younger than that.

Facts:
He was a supplemental pick in a weak draft
He hasn't pitched in full season ball
Scouts not associated with the Twins expect him to take 3-4 yrs

This isn't an example of the Twins holding him back (yet). Let's wait and see what he does in full season ball before we consider 3-4 yrs outrageous.

mnfanforlife
11-27-2012, 09:04 AM
In reply to ThePuck.........

Right, well there really isn't an easy answer to your question...why take that long with Berrios? I gave you my opinion on where he should realistically start and finish the next two summers. Again, in my opinion, Berrios, Buxton, and all the other top "pigs" in the pageant should be pushed along FAST and made to STRUGGLE in the minor leagues. They should learn to overcome adversity in the minors, and will be better at dealing with the imminent adversity they will face in the Major Leagues. Just my opinion, but other organizations seem to operate this way.

mnfanforlife
11-27-2012, 09:10 AM
In reply to kab21........

If Berrios is up at 21, I will be shocked. I don't think the Twins want anyone up that young, as they see it as a poor business decision for the organization. Imagine that..poor business decisions being made by the Twins front office. Hey with all the crap personnel moves Smith and Ryan have made over the last 3 years, there is no way they push any of their top prospects too quickly. There would be too many questions to answer. It looks like we are going back to the 1990's with our ultra-conservative approach to re-building a roster with a $23 mil catcher.

mnfanforlife
11-27-2012, 09:16 AM
I do not think everyone is ok with that...but not sure what we can do about it either...

true story

mnfanforlife
11-27-2012, 09:26 AM
Seth suggested earlier in this thread that the Twins may keep Berrios in extended Spring Training to protect his arm/ limit his innings. I have to confess that I don't entirely understand this. While he is in extended Spring Training he will be pitching on a regular schedule and actually pitching in controlled games. I can understand where you might not want to sent a young Puerto Rican kid up to the Midwest League to pitch in what could be extremely cold conditions in April. I don't think the overall wear and tear on a young man's arm will be a lot different pitching in extended Spring Training or the Midwest League, however.

I am fine with him starting in ext sprng trning....but he needs to be able to move up quickly once he does get to CR...jtrinaldi said he will be in A ball by May...thats fine, I just want to see him get the opp to move multiple levels if he dominates next year and the following year. Other than the disastrous trades recently, the front office has other faults in the way they develop their top prospects. The recent evidence: none are ready quickly (Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Parmelee, Salcedo, Soliman, Slama, Gibson, Wimmers, Guerra, etc.), and none have realized their potential (Slowey, Hendriks, Hoey, Dozier, Nishioka, etc., etc.) yet. Obviously more prospects will flop than flourish, but the Twins have been awful recently on both the trade, and prospect development fronts.

kab21
11-27-2012, 07:23 PM
In reply to kab21........

If Berrios is up at 21, I will be shocked. I don't think the Twins want anyone up that young, as they see it as a poor business decision for the organization. Imagine that..poor business decisions being made by the Twins front office. Hey with all the crap personnel moves Smith and Ryan have made over the last 3 years, there is no way they push any of their top prospects too quickly. There would be too many questions to answer. It looks like we are going back to the 1990's with our ultra-conservative approach to re-building a roster with a $23 mil catcher.

Regardless of what you think of the FO, do you really think that Berrios is the type of prospect that is up for good at age 21 or before. We're not talking about a Dylan Bundy here. We're talking about a sandwich pick which some questioned a little at the time that has about 40 rk ball innings and scouting reports that say he can be a good #3. Even now with the hype getting a little out of control very few would put him on a top 100 prospect list.

Let's stop acting like the Twins are guilty of taking an ultra conservative route with Berrios when he's one of the few HS'ers that have played at both rk ball levels in their first season. That's not even mentioning that he did it in the year he was drafted due to the new CBA rules which get players signed earlier.

mnfanforlife
11-28-2012, 11:35 AM
True that Berrios could never become a #1 or #2 guy. Hey, he might even flop completely. Lets just hope that he reproduces his rookie numbers over the next few levels so we can get him up to Minnesota at 21-22 for good. If he is a good #3 then he will probably be our ace.

Maybe he isnt a top 100 guy right now, but could certainly be with dominant numbers in low-A next year. That is, if he gets significant innings at low-A

And time will tell if the Twins are too conservative with Berros. I am merely suggesting he be fast tracked if his numbers call for it.

mnfanforlife
01-16-2013, 05:28 PM
Anyone think Berrios pitches in A+ this coming summer?

kab21
01-16-2013, 08:36 PM
Anyone think Berrios pitches in A+ this coming summer?

He is almost for sure going to start in low A and I would give him a <20% chance of moving up. He's good but he's not an elite HS'er or a college pitcher that is going to move fast. And the Twins do have a history of taking it slow with prospects. However if he dominates low A he could get promoted in the 2nd half.

mnfanforlife
01-17-2013, 08:56 AM
Do you think he will have enough time in Low-A to dominate enough? Considering he may not join Cedar Rapids until the weather is "nice"

nicksaviking
01-17-2013, 09:46 AM
Anyone think Berrios pitches in A+ this coming summer?

Nope, the Twins make nearly all HS players stay a full year at low A. Arcia got to skip out after half a season but he was a hitter. Berrios will get no higher than CR this year.

mnfanforlife
01-17-2013, 09:53 AM
Nope, the Twins make nearly all HS players stay a full year at low A. Arcia got to skip out after half a season but he was a hitter. Berrios will get no higher than CR this year.

I don't like it, but I agree that is the wisest course of action for Berrios. We need pitching NOW in Minnesota, but its not worth risking guys like J.O. before they are ready for a big-league workload

kab21
01-17-2013, 10:06 AM
prospects need time. you don't rush a prospect because of need. Plus the Twins have Gibson, May and Meyer in AA/AAA.

mnfanforlife
01-17-2013, 10:09 AM
prospects need time. you don't rush a prospect because of need. Plus the Twins have Gibson, May and Meyer in AA/AAA.

And a ton of college arms that are not even on the Top 20 list by MLB.com

mnfanforlife
01-17-2013, 10:10 AM
How about a future rotation of:

1. Meyer
2. May
3. Berrios
4. Gibson
5. Boyd/Baxendale/Hendriks/Mata/ whoever is good

nicksaviking
01-17-2013, 10:37 AM
prospects need time. you don't rush a prospect because of need. Plus the Twins have Gibson, May and Meyer in AA/AAA.

You don't want to push a guy who's not ready, but if he is proving himself, a quick advancement is not necessarily rushing a young player. Had the Twins been fortunate enough to have gotten their hands on Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, would those players still have reached the majors at the young ages of 19 and 20 years old? No one can say, but i suspect not.

mnfanforlife
01-17-2013, 11:02 AM
You don't want to push a guy who's not ready, but if he is proving himself, a quick advancement is not necessarily rushing a young player. Had the Twins been fortunate enough to have gotten their hands on Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, would those players still have reached the majors at the young ages of 19 and 20 years old? No one can say, but i suspect not.

There is absolutely NO WAY the Twins EVER start a 19-yr-old at ANY position in the big-leagues. Mauer was a rare exception at 20. No one will ever get to Minnesota that quickly ever again.

kab21
01-17-2013, 11:52 AM
You don't want to push a guy who's not ready, but if he is proving himself, a quick advancement is not necessarily rushing a young player. Had the Twins been fortunate enough to have gotten their hands on Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, would those players still have reached the majors at the young ages of 19 and 20 years old? No one can say, but i suspect not.
The thing is that Berrrios isn't Kershaw or Felix. If he's dominating at the all star break then he should be promoted. I am expecting him to be good but not great next year.

ThePuck
01-17-2013, 12:55 PM
The thing is that Berrrios isn't Kershaw or Felix. If he's dominating at the all star break then he should be promoted. I am expecting him to be good but not great next year.

No Berrios isn't Kershaw or Felix, but when those two were that young, did everyone know they'd turn out exactly how they did? I wonder who people were saying those two weren't when they were that young...

Berrios' numbers in rookie ball were better than Kershaw's...arguably better than King Felix's...at least stat-line wise. We could really have something here.

mnfanforlife
01-17-2013, 01:31 PM
Great point! And yes, we could really have something special in Berrios

kab21
01-17-2013, 08:51 PM
I think you need to reign in your expectations a little.

righty8383
01-17-2013, 11:44 PM
I think you need to reign in your expectations a little.

Perhaps, but when an 18 year old dominates a notorious hitters league, it is worth getting excited about.

kab21
01-18-2013, 08:07 AM
I agree that it is worth getting excited about but it's a small sample. He was a supplemental pick, he is not ranked in top 100 lists and most scouting reports say he has #3 upside. Kershaw was the #7 pick, ranked about #25 overall and had #1 upside. Berrios is a very good prospect but I am going to wait untilhe has at least played full season ball to suggest that he will dominate and get promoted to FT Myers.

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 08:34 AM
I agree that it is worth getting excited about but it's a small sample. He was a supplemental pick, he is not ranked in top 100 lists and most scouting reports say he has #3 upside. Kershaw was the #7 pick, ranked about #25 overall and had #1 upside. Berrios is a very good prospect but I am going to wait untilhe has at least played full season ball to suggest that he will dominate and get promoted to FT Myers.


For sure kab21, I think we all agree he should not be rushed. But let's detach ourselves from the #3 starter projections, and become enchanted with the mystery of what Berrios could become. We should never pigeon-hole a prospect with dominant numbers, and say ,"well, he is only gonna be a 2nd tier guy in the bigs. So we can reign in our expectations and not expect anything great from him."

I suggest we imagine what is possible, rather than downplay whatever summit a player may reach.

Its a lot more fun anyway. And with all these teenagers in the Twins system, there are a whole lot of summits that will be reached far in to future seasons.

ThePuck
01-18-2013, 08:58 AM
John Sickels scouting report:

Minor League Prospect Note: Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/minnesota-twins)

One of my favorite pitchers from the 2012 draft is Jose Berrios (sometimes referred to as J.O. Berrios), a high school pitcher from Puerto Rico drafted in the supplemental first round by the Minnesota Twins. Berrios has been outstanding in pro ball. He threw five shutout innings for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League on Friday, allowing two hits, walking nobody, while fanning 11.


Overall, in 25.2 innings split between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League, Berrios has allowed two runs (0.70 ERA), just 10 hits, only four walks, while fanning 43. That's right, 43/4 K/BB in 25.2 innings with 10 hits allowed.


Standing 6-0, 190, the 18-year-old Berrios is showing a mid-90s fastball, and both his breaking ball and changeup are exceeding his pre-draft scouting reports. The breaking ball is variously described as either a hard curve or a slider, depending on which source you're talking to, but either way it is effective. His changeup is advanced for his age. He also tinkered with a cutter and a slow curve as an amateur. Although he doesn't have much physical projection remaining in terms of size, he is athletic, repeats his mechanics well, and has mature mound presence.


The Twins used him in relief at first in the Gulf Coast League to get him acclimated to pro ball, but he's starting now and has the arsenal to stick there. His control has been very sharp, and obviously his performance has been outstanding so far. I like him a lot and he could end up being one of the best pitchers in the draft class.

ThePuck
01-18-2013, 09:00 AM
From The Scouting Book

Drafted as a teenager from Puerto Rico to open 2012's compensation round, Jose Orlando Berrios is a smallish righthander with good arm strength from a compact but strong frame. His short delivery bodes well for mechanical soundness, with a fastball that can pop at 96mph and a breaking ball that looks like a real plus offering. He'll slow-cook in Minnesota after signing, but if he stays healthy, it won't be long before he's seen as a TOP-FLIGHT PHENOM in a system good at maximizing pitcher value.

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 09:18 AM
He'll slow-cook in Minnesota after signing, but if he stays healthy, it won't be long before he's seen as a TOP-FLIGHT PHENOM in a system good at maximizing pitcher value.

Thats right, get out your crock pots. We are cooking up an ACE.

Great info about Jose's progression!

ThePuck
01-18-2013, 09:33 AM
Thats right, get out your crock pots. We are cooking up an ACE.

Great info about Jose's progression!

Heck, if he ends up being a decent #2, or a very good #3 (and I don't mean decent #2 or very good #3 based on current Twins value), it's still very good. I don't see any reason not to be high on him.

kab21
01-18-2013, 10:23 AM
Heck, if he ends up being a decent #2, or a very good #3 (and I don't mean decent #2 or very good #3 based on current Twins value), it's still very good. I don't see any reason not to be high on him.Who is not hi

kab21
01-18-2013, 10:26 AM
Heck, if he ends up being a decent #2, or a very good #3 (and I don't mean decent #2 or very good #3 based on current Twins value), it's still very good. I don't see any reason not to be high on him.Who is not high on him?

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 10:40 AM
Yeah, I think we all agree a good #3 starter would be a miracle for the Twins rotation. Shoot, if Meyer, May, and Berrios can develop into good #2's, we got something tasty in that slow cooker. Might have to make a trip to Iowa this August, assuming Berrios will still be in low A.

THE DFC
01-18-2013, 11:00 AM
No Berrios isn't Kershaw or Felix, but when those two were that young, did everyone know they'd turn out exactly how they did? I wonder who people were saying those two weren't when they were that young...

Berrios' numbers in rookie ball were better than Kershaw's...arguably better than King Felix's...at least stat-line wise. We could really have something here.

Thank you. It's absolutely absurd to see the definitive statements in this thread--he's not Kershaw, he won't get past CR, he won't have another astounding season.

The likelihood based on the rarity of elite pitching prospects and mind-blowing performances by very young pitchers coupled with Berrios's previous scouting report make the most probable answer that he'll have a good but semi-volatile season in A- ball. But, I think the notion that if he comes out dominating anywhere near the level that he did last season that there's still zero chance he gets to A+ ball or is a truly elite prospect is absurd. Sure, this scenario isn't likely, but given his performance last season, it's intriguing to not have to rule it out. I'm excited for Berrios mainly because he's put himself in a position to ponder that hypothetical scenario. That could bode very well for his long term future.

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 01:24 PM
I see Berrios being somewhat like Linecum....in that he is not a large-bodied pitcher, but can still throw gas with movement. His off-speed stuff is nasty (like Lincecum), and all we need is a chance to see him in a legit minor league.

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 01:45 PM
We will see Berrios pitch for P.R. in the WBC!!!!!

Badsmerf
01-18-2013, 02:28 PM
Some of you guys need to be realistic about your expectations for him. He is advanced for his age, which why he dominated. The big question is if his stuff is going to play at higher levels. It's hard to really judge a pitcher after his first season of pro ball, especially young ones. Low-A should start to give him more challenges, but I don't think he'll have much trouble there and get promoted to the FSL halfway through the season. Hitters in this league still struggle with plate discipline and pitch recognition. Berrios has very good control and 3 very good pitches. With his make-up I think he wont get pushed until AA when hitters start to take mistake pitches over the fence.

kab21
01-18-2013, 07:41 PM
John Sickels scouting report:

Minor League Prospect Note: Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/minnesota-twins)

One of my favorite pitchers from the 2012 draft is Jose Berrios (sometimes referred to as J.O. Berrios), a high school pitcher from Puerto Rico drafted in the supplemental first round by the Minnesota Twins. Berrios has been outstanding in pro ball. He threw five shutout innings for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League on Friday, allowing two hits, walking nobody, while fanning 11.


Overall, in 25.2 innings split between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League, Berrios has allowed two runs (0.70 ERA), just 10 hits, only four walks, while fanning 43. That's right, 43/4 K/BB in 25.2 innings with 10 hits allowed.


Standing 6-0, 190, the 18-year-old Berrios is showing a mid-90s fastball, and both his breaking ball and changeup are exceeding his pre-draft scouting reports. The breaking ball is variously described as either a hard curve or a slider, depending on which source you're talking to, but either way it is effective. His changeup is advanced for his age. He also tinkered with a cutter and a slow curve as an amateur. Although he doesn't have much physical projection remaining in terms of size, he is athletic, repeats his mechanics well, and has mature mound presence.


The Twins used him in relief at first in the Gulf Coast League to get him acclimated to pro ball, but he's starting now and has the arsenal to stick there. His control has been very sharp, and obviously his performance has been outstanding so far. I like him a lot and he could end up being one of the best pitchers in the draft class.

Berrios is one of Sickels favorites yet he didn't even include him in his top 50 pitching prospects. He was also asked about the bolded comment recently and he almost sounded surprised that he had earlier said that. He clarified that comment by toning it down but I can't find it because it's one random comment in a random post from the last couple of months.

The important thing when evaluating prospects is to stay grounded in your expectations. I really, really like Berrios and I'm very bullish on him. I even think that it's possible that he dominates the minors. But even if he does you need to consider how many elite prospects that have dominated AA/AAA with awesome scouting reports have struggled to become even #3's in the majors. Right now we're talking about someone that is ranked outside of the top 100 prospects and has thrown a few innings in rookie ball.

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 08:07 PM
Some of you guys need to be realistic about your expectations for him. He is advanced for his age, which why he dominated. The big question is if his stuff is going to play at higher levels. It's hard to really judge a pitcher after his first season of pro ball, especially young ones. Low-A should start to give him more challenges, but I don't think he'll have much trouble there and get promoted to the FSL halfway through the season. Hitters in this league still struggle with plate discipline and pitch recognition. Berrios has very good control and 3 very good pitches. With his make-up I think he wont get pushed until AA when hitters start to take mistake pitches over the fence.

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

johnnydakota
01-18-2013, 09:24 PM
Pedro Martinez was only 5ft 11 inches , hope berrois at an even 6 foot is a better pitcher =)

mnfanforlife
01-18-2013, 09:57 PM
Oh man, if Berrios even approaches the level of PJ Martinez then we have an ace

kab21
01-19-2013, 12:03 AM
So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

You took what he said as fizzle out? There is a massive difference between being challenged and fizzling out.

Basically in this thread you are turning any critical comment about Berrios into the equivalent of 'he sucks'. You've based your super high optimism on 30 innings of rk ball and selectively reading scouting reports. He absolutely dominated those 30 innings but at the end of the day rk ball stats come close to meaningless since there is just a bunch of HS/college non prospects there.

kab21
01-19-2013, 12:04 AM
Pedro Martinez was only 5ft 11 inches , hope berrois at an even 6 foot is a better pitcher =)

This is a good joke. I really am laughing.

Badsmerf
01-19-2013, 03:11 PM
So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

Not at all. I'm pretty high on him, but need to see more success at higher levels before getting carried away. Were you following the minors while Garza was coming up with the Twins? Different scenario completely, but Garza destroyed every level of the minors and is simply an above average pitcher with an attitude problem now. My point is, domination in the minors (especially rookie ball) doesn't mean a player is going to hold down a roster spot for 10 years. What kab and I are saying, is there are too many examples of prospects that have everyone raving and then drop off the map. Keep expectations realistic for these kids.

That said, I love Berrios. He has #2 upside and sounds like a good kid and hard worker. At this point we've only heard positive things about him. If he continues to develop he will no doubt land in the top 100 prospects soon, probably had a shot this year.

mnfanforlife
01-19-2013, 05:02 PM
Thanks for your opinions on Berrios. And kab21, I am sincerely sorry if any of my posts have offended you in any way.

As for your accusation of me having "super high optimism" about Jose's projections....I have posted several of my 2015 Twins pitching rotations on this site, and none of them have Berrios as our #1 or #2 starter. So, I definitely agree he is probably not an ace (even by Twins' standards). But until he actually does struggle in the minors, I will be hopeful he proves all the doubters wrong and becomes an MLB-caliber ACE. I see nothing wrong with that.

Am I thinking critically about him? not so much, but I doubt that J. Berrios sees himself as a #3 starter. He surely wants to be #1, and he is really the most influential person on this topic of projection. Not you, or me, or any scout out there.

kab21
01-19-2013, 09:54 PM
If Berrios is even in your 2015 rotation you are way too optimistic.

I'm not offended by your optimism but I think that you are setting yourself up disappointment. I also don't others to go overboard on Berrios because they start seeing Kershaw's, Pedro's and Felix's name in the thread. Regardless of what he did in rk ball he is nothing like them. It's pretty unlikely that even Dylan bundy (the best pitching prospect in baseball) even matches what they've done in the majors.

mnfanforlife
01-20-2013, 10:53 AM
If Berrios is even in your 2015 rotation you are way too optimistic.

I'm not offended by your optimism but I think that you are setting yourself up disappointment. I also don't others to go overboard on Berrios because they start seeing Kershaw's, Pedro's and Felix's name in the thread. Regardless of what he did in rk ball he is nothing like them. It's pretty unlikely that even Dylan bundy (the best pitching prospect in baseball) even matches what they've done in the majors.

Sounds like youre a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. And that's fine! Nothing wrong with wanting a prospect to prove himself through the levels of the minor leagues. But let me point something out.....Buxton's Rookie ball production did not look great on paper. Yet, Bux was chosen by Base. Amer. as the #1 prospect in both rookie leagues.

Berrios was not nearly as highly-touted as Byron, but his rookie numbers were ridiculous. I know, we are talking about rookie stats. My question for you....if Bux is going to be compared to anyone named Upton, then who can we compare Berrios to?

Hey, I may be disappointed if Berrios doesn't become an MLB #3, but I can certainly hope for more than that from him. I am NOT AFRAID TO BE DISAPPOINTED ABOUT ANY BASEBALL PROSPECT. Please let me dream.

mnfanforlife
01-20-2013, 10:54 AM
I threw the name Lincecum out there based on body type and "stuff" And...I agree that Kershaw and King Felix are poor comparisons for Berrios. Pedro Martinez is a better comparison as far as body-type. But nobody that is sane would predict Berrios' MLB production would even approach Pedro or Lincecum for that matter.

kab21
01-20-2013, 08:10 PM
I wouldn't consider myself a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. I would consider myself someone that isn't going to drool over 30 innings of rk ball numbers. you try to concede that point but then go on about Buxton's numbers did not look great. The reason that he is a great prospect is that his scouting reports say that he has Upton (more BJ than Justin) tools and the legitimate potential to be a multiple all-star. That's why he's ranked #1 in both leagues. Of course he could flame out in AA still because he hasn't done much yet.

Please elaborate on how Berrios is anything like Lincecum other than he is short. This is the trap that many fall into when they want to hype up a short pitching prospect. Berrios is a very good prospect and he was an excellent value where the Twins got him but his scouting reports and rankings do not come close to matching the hype that you are throwing out there. I haven't seen a name comp attached to Berrios yet but name comps usually look silly 5 years later. What I have seen is that most have attached a mid rotation starter tag to him so dream reasonably.

mnfanforlife
01-20-2013, 08:32 PM
I wouldn't consider myself a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. I would consider myself someone that isn't going to drool over 30 innings of rk ball numbers. you try to concede that point but then go on about Buxton's numbers did not look great. The reason that he is a great prospect is that his scouting reports say that he has Upton (more BJ than Justin) tools and the legitimate potential to be a multiple all-star. That's why he's ranked #1 in both leagues. Of course he could flame out in AA still because he hasn't done much yet.

Please elaborate on how Berrios is anything like Lincecum other than he is short. This is the trap that many fall into when they want to hype up a short pitching prospect. Berrios is a very good prospect and he was an excellent value where the Twins got him but his scouting reports and rankings do not come close to matching the hype that you are throwing out there. I haven't seen a name comp attached to Berrios yet but name comps usually look silly 5 years later. What I have seen is that most have attached a mid rotation starter tag to him so dream reasonably.

I am guilty of player comp's...its how I discuss prospects. Comparing minor leaguers to established guys is really not fair to both players. But it is a good way to describe a player that has not been exposed on a national level. And yes, they can look silly down the road.

Berrios resembles Lincecum in my mind because they are both about the same height/weight. Both have fastballs that tail in to right-handed hitter, and when Lincecum was younger he was mid-90's like Berrios is now. Both feature two solid off-speed offerings (Lincecum the split and curve, Berrios the slurve and change).

Timmy was a high-expectations college draftee while Berrios was simply an exceptional high school arm. At 22 years old, Lincecum dominated A+ and the giants elected to skip him up to AAA to begin the next season. After 5 starts in AAA as a 23-yr-old, Lincecum was promoted and won two Cy-Youngs.

I am NOT saying Berrios is going to win a Cy Young award. What I am saying is that time will tell us all what we should expect from him. He is slightly ahead of the Tim Lincecum schedule if he starts in low-A, since Timmy went to college. So, we will have to be very patient while berrios works his way up to A+...that level of play will tell us alot about what we have. Hopefully he starts in Cedar Rapids right away this spring and we get a look at him in the FSL (a real league) in 2013.

ashburyjohn
01-20-2013, 10:10 PM
He is slightly ahead of the Tim Lincecum schedule if he starts in low-A, since Timmy went to college.

This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

mnfanforlife
01-20-2013, 10:16 PM
This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

Yes, I admit its not fair to berrios or timmy. But they are quite similar in body-type and pitching "stuff"..beyond that they do not compare favorably since their paths to the bigs will be so different. berrios will probably not skip a single level on his way to MN, while Timmy was already seasoned when the Giants got him at #10 overall.

Willihammer
01-20-2013, 10:42 PM
An interesting study on pitcher height and its correlation with durability and effectiveness: Does a Pitcher?s Height Matter? | SABR (http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter)


The data speak for themselves. Baseball organizations have been scouting, signing, and developing players based on a fallacious assumption. Shorter pitchers are just as effective and durable as taller pitchers. If a player has the ability to get drafted, then he should be drafted in the round that fits his talent.
The opportunity for major-league clubs is currently at its greatest potential. Clubs that value short pitchers with talent have an opportunity similar to those of clubs that, a decade or more ago, valued on-base percentage at a time when many of their competitors did not.

mnfanforlife
01-20-2013, 11:20 PM
Sho' 'Nuff Willihammer! Thank you for posting!!

drjim
01-21-2013, 08:25 AM
By being unafraid to draft short pitchers in high rounds the Twins once again prove they are at the cutting edge of statistical analysis!

ashburyjohn
01-21-2013, 07:07 PM
Yes, I admit its not fair to berrios or timmy. But they are quite similar in body-type and pitching "stuff"..beyond that they do not compare favorably since their paths to the bigs will be so different. berrios will probably not skip a single level on his way to MN, while Timmy was already seasoned when the Giants got him at #10 overall.

JO is slightly taller and weighs more than Lincecum already, and he's not even reached his 19th birthday so he could fill out some more, maybe even grow another inch taller. And since their paths shape up to be so different, isn't there some other pitcher with similar body-type and stuff to use for the comp?

Matt Moore is listed as 6'2" and 205 today, quite a lot smaller in stature than the Verlanders and Prices of the world - when he was signed as an 18-year-old I wonder if he profiled all that differently from JO today. Moore had a nice introduction in the Appalachian League as an 18-19 year old, and he turned out all right. I don't know what kinds of pitches Moore throws, versus Berrios, though - so maybe he's a poor comp.

How about Gio Gonzalez? 6'0" and 200, also hot stuff in the Appy League when 18 - is/was his stuff comparable?

kab21
01-21-2013, 07:27 PM
The Timmy comp is just silly. RH'ers with fastballs that tail in to righties? 2 secondary offerings that are different from Timmy? Couldn't you comp half of the RH pitching prospects to Timmy using this criteria?

As a matter of fact this whole thread is silly. If Berrios is what you say he is then he should ranking in top 25 lists right now. Even you put him at #6 on your 2014 list that doesn't include Hicks, Arcia and Gibson.

mnfanforlife
01-21-2013, 07:40 PM
JO is slightly taller and weighs more than Lincecum already, and he's not even reached his 19th birthday so he could fill out some more, maybe even grow another inch taller. And since their paths shape up to be so different, isn't there some other pitcher with similar body-type and stuff to use for the comp?

Matt Moore is listed as 6'2" and 205 today, quite a lot smaller in stature than the Verlanders and Prices of the world - when he was signed as an 18-year-old I wonder if he profiled all that differently from JO today. Moore had a nice introduction in the Appalachian League as an 18-19 year old, and he turned out all right. I don't know what kinds of pitches Moore throws, versus Berrios, though - so maybe he's a poor comp.

How about Gio Gonzalez? 6'0" and 200, also hot stuff in the Appy League when 18 - is/was his stuff comparable?

I am not really liking comparing Berrios to any lefties, or anyone that weighs 200 lbs or greater. Maybe you can compare stats, but I am talking more about what he looks like on the mound and his "stuff." I don't know. I admitted the Timmy comparison was not fair, or great for that matter.

Let me see.....

mnfanforlife
01-21-2013, 07:47 PM
This video clip: JOSE ORLANDO BERRIOS Under Armour All-America 2011 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ78fM3fHlw) ....reminds me of the pitching motion of Zack greinke, but zack is more over-the-top than berrios.

ashburyjohn
01-22-2013, 11:56 AM
I am not really liking comparing Berrios to any lefties, or anyone that weighs 200 lbs or greater.

If baseball-reference.com lists a guy at 200 now, I assume he weighed a good 10-20 pounds less as an 18-year old. May be a bad assumption. As for the lefty-righty thing, yeah, that was a bad oversight - obviously I was just spitballing some names and looking them up, and forgot to check handedness. Maybe Greinke is a decent comp in terms of size - hopefully not in his introverted makeup though.

mnfanforlife
01-22-2013, 12:06 PM
If baseball-reference.com lists a guy at 200 now, I assume he weighed a good 10-20 pounds less as an 18-year old. May be a bad assumption. As for the lefty-righty thing, yeah, that was a bad oversight - obviously I was just spitballing some names and looking them up, and forgot to check handedness. Maybe Greinke is a decent comp in terms of size - hopefully not in his introverted makeup though.

That's for sure. We don't need a guy that can't handle the pressure of pitching in the majors. But Greinke has been All-Star worthy for quite some time now...If Berrios approaches the level of Zack, then he was steal at #32 overall.

jimbo92107
01-23-2013, 01:04 PM
Doesn't throw quite as hard as Greinke, but Berrios is going to be a major pitching star.

JOSE ORLANDO BERRIOS Under Armour All-America 2011 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ78fM3fHlw)

Look at his poise on the mound, the alertness, the command. I see some Greinke, but his delivery doesn't look very hard on his arm. Berrios just needs to throw a few thousand more pitches to hone his form, get better accuracy. With his athletic balance on the mound, it will definitely happen. He'll be picking the corners with that slider in the major leagues within three years.

mnfanforlife
01-23-2013, 04:17 PM
Doesn't throw quite as hard as Greinke, but Berrios is going to be a major pitching star.

JOSE ORLANDO BERRIOS Under Armour All-America 2011 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ78fM3fHlw)

Look at his poise on the mound, the alertness, the command. I see some Greinke, but his delivery doesn't look very hard on his arm. Berrios just needs to throw a few thousand more pitches to hone his form, get better accuracy. With his athletic balance on the mound, it will definitely happen. He'll be picking the corners with that slider in the major leagues within three years.

Couldn't agree more! I like your optimistic energy, and enthusiasm