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Jeremy Nygaard
11-04-2012, 12:48 PM
It should be expected and, in my opinion, doesn't really qualify as news.

Here's the LINK (http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/11/04/baseball-free-agents-keep-eye/a4w9cbEKRO8AVLommvue9L/story.html) anyway.

The theory is that it would cost Span and more to get Shields, who will cost $10.25m in 2013 and at least $12m in 2014 (though he has a $1m buyout).

greengoblinrulz
11-04-2012, 01:08 PM
How the Twins inquire
Last winter: Mark Buerhle....we'd sign ya for 2 yrs, but you want 3 or 4, at least we inquired
This year: Ervin Santana: you gonna trade him or release him....ok we inquired
Same with Shields
Wont think differently untill they prove me wrong (I WANT to be proven wrong). Shields would be a great asset untill Rick Anderson imposses his 100 pitch limit on him.

Twins Fan From Afar
11-04-2012, 01:16 PM
There's no doubt that Shields would be a great asset to this team and would instantly become our #1 starter. And I have no problem giving up Span for him.

My problem, though, is this: I have serious, serious doubts that this team is going to contend for anything next season, and in my mind 2014 would be the first season that they legitimately could expect to be above .500. Maybe (hopefully) I'm dead wrong about this. But if that's true, it doesn't do a whole lot of good to have Shields just until the point that he's not under contract (after 2014), which happens to be the point where I think this team could come into its own with a young crop of talent.

Make no mistake, though, it would be a nice pick-up.

J-Dog Dungan
11-04-2012, 01:21 PM
It should be expected and, in my opinion, doesn't really qualify as news.

Here's the LINK (http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/11/04/baseball-free-agents-keep-eye/a4w9cbEKRO8AVLommvue9L/story.html) anyway.

The theory is that it would cost Span and more to get Shields, who will cost $10.25m in 2013 and at least $12m in 2014 (though he has a $1m buyout).
While this may not qualify as news to those of us who know that the Twins desperately need pitching (which is pretty much anyone who even looks at the players that are on the roster as pitchers), the fact that they are willing to put out there that they are at least attempting to go after one of the top available pitchers on the market is a good sign and a step in the right direction. Now, they just need to sign someone after they "inquire" about them and I will start to fully believe that they are looking for a way back to contention.

minn55441
11-04-2012, 01:52 PM
There's no doubt that Shields would be a great asset to this team and would instantly become our #1 starter. And I have no problem giving up Span for him.

My problem, though, is this: I have serious, serious doubts that this team is going to contend for anything next season, and in my mind 2014 would be the first season that they legitimately could expect to be above .500. Maybe (hopefully) I'm dead wrong about this. But if that's true, it doesn't do a whole lot of good to have Shields just until the point that he's not under contract (after 2014), which happens to be the point where I think this team could come into its own with a young crop of talent.

Make no mistake, though, it would be a nice pick-up.

I would love to get Shields. I'm of the belief that if we fix the starting Pitching problem, we have a chance. Shields is a step in the right direction and a great step at that. He will be 31 next season and has averaged at least 200 innings for 6 consecutive years. All the while giving up less than one hit per inning during that span.

The real question is what does Tampa want in return? I think they will trade Shields this off season. It fits their MO. Span is working on a very friendly contract, which should add value to the transaction. Who else will we need to throw in? Do we throw in a better prospect and they give us a lesser prospect in return? During the TR interview, he mentioned that we would see some action early. I wonder if he had a trade in mind or a FA signing?

I know some have downplayed the value of Shields in past threads, but I would not mind if we overpaid to land him. I wonder if Span and Benson would be enough to get it done?

Twins Fan From Afar
11-04-2012, 02:00 PM
There's no doubt that Shields would be a great asset to this team and would instantly become our #1 starter. And I have no problem giving up Span for him.

My problem, though, is this: I have serious, serious doubts that this team is going to contend for anything next season, and in my mind 2014 would be the first season that they legitimately could expect to be above .500. Maybe (hopefully) I'm dead wrong about this. But if that's true, it doesn't do a whole lot of good to have Shields just until the point that he's not under contract (after 2014), which happens to be the point where I think this team could come into its own with a young crop of talent.

Make no mistake, though, it would be a nice pick-up.

I would love to get Shields. I'm of the belief that if we fix the starting Pitching problem, we have a chance. Shields is a step in the right direction and a great step at that. He will be 31 next season and has averaged at least 200 innings for 6 consecutive years. All the while giving up less than one hit per inning during that span.

The real question is what does Tampa want in return? I think they will trade Shields this off season. It fits their MO. Span is working on a very friendly contract, which should add value to the transaction. Who else will we need to throw in? Do we throw in a better prospect and they give us a lesser prospect in return? During the TR interview, he mentioned that we would see some action early. I wonder if he had a trade in mind or a FA signing?

I know some have downplayed the value of Shields in past threads, but I would not mind if we overpaid to land him. I wonder if Span and Benson would be enough to get it done?

Absolutely agreed on the emphasis on fixing pitching. Shields and one other above average starter would go a long way to helping this team become respectable in 2013. And if Span and Benson for Shields could get the job done, count me in.

Seth Stohs
11-04-2012, 02:11 PM
I get greengoblinz skepticism and on some level I share it. But, honestly, at this stage, almost a month before the Winter Meetings, I would expect to hear much more inquiring than dealing. I mean, it takes more than one phone call to make a deal, and all deals need to start somewhere. Generally, that's with an inquiring. Ryan needs to know if he's really available and an approximate starting point on what would get it to happen. The Rays will inquire about what the TWins might want to do. The Twins should downplay it some, but anyone in baseball knows that the Twins need SP. So, I'm excited to hear that a lot of inquiring is going on already. hat is good news. Whether anything will happen? Well, it takes two sides...

Kwak
11-04-2012, 02:11 PM
Shields would be a tentpole for the rotation. Two years of team control at his salary is very affordable. It's time to make a serious offer.

jorgenswest
11-04-2012, 02:52 PM
Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

Brock Beauchamp
11-04-2012, 03:23 PM
Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

Twins Twerp
11-04-2012, 03:35 PM
How the Twins inquire
Last winter: Mark Buerhle....we'd sign ya for 2 yrs, but you want 3 or 4, at least we inquired
This year: Ervin Santana: you gonna trade him or release him....ok we inquired
Same with Shields
Wont think differently untill they prove me wrong (I WANT to be proven wrong). Shields would be a great asset untill Rick Anderson imposses his 100 pitch limit on him.

Haha, so you wanted to sign Buerle to that monster deal in his late thirties? Come on lets get real. Yes the Twins inquired about people, and in a free market, that is all you can do. Lets start throwing stones after the winter meetings people. Don't be pissed off because we didn't trade for Ervin Santana, who is probably well into his 30's for all we know. The Twins tried but often times these deals come back to bite teams in the bum.

We sign Joe Mauer long term and people scream bloody murder two years down the road. I guess your damned if you do damned if you don't for the Twins front office (who I may add built a playoff contender for the better part of a decade).

How about we do this...overpay for guys on the free agent market because the fans want it. Then the Twins fans will call for the GM's head because said player is way overpaid and should not have been given such a huge contract. Make up your mind fairweather Twins fans.

jorgenswest
11-04-2012, 03:39 PM
I agree. The price may be too high and the Twins need to look longer term.

It is tough to buy starting pitching through trades or free agency. Pitching is the most valuable currency. The A's traded several starting pitchers over the years and each time sought young pitching in return. You usually need pitching to get pitching.

Top Gun
11-04-2012, 03:42 PM
Can Shields win 20? I doubt it.

Twins Twerp
11-04-2012, 03:43 PM
I've got a little bit of an off topic question here, but what are the chances we trade Span for a mid to upper level pitching prospect? A few people, ok a lot of people on this site seem to think the Twins will not compete next year. I happen to lean towards the school of thought that they will not compete. The free agent market is full of overpriced, peaking or on the decline pitchers. Is anyone going to give us a top (50-100 nationally rated) prospect? I would almost prefer a pitching prospect or two instead of a major league pitcher like Shields for 2 years.

greengoblinrulz
11-04-2012, 03:49 PM
How the Twins inquire
Last winter: Mark Buerhle....we'd sign ya for 2 yrs, but you want 3 or 4, at least we inquired
This year: Ervin Santana: you gonna trade him or release him....ok we inquired
Same with Shields
Wont think differently untill they prove me wrong (I WANT to be proven wrong). Shields would be a great asset untill Rick Anderson imposses his 100 pitch limit on him.

Haha, so you wanted to sign Buerle to that monster deal in his late thirties? Come on lets get real. Yes the Twins inquired about people, and in a free market, that is all you can do. Lets start throwing stones after the winter meetings people. Don't be pissed off because we didn't trade for Ervin Santana, who is probably well into his 30's for all we know. The Twins tried but often times these deals come back to bite teams in the bum.

We sign Joe Mauer long term and people scream bloody murder two years down the road. I guess your damned if you do damned if you don't for the Twins front office (who I may add built a playoff contender for the better part of a decade).

How about we do this...overpay for guys on the free agent market because the fans want it. Then the Twins fans will call for the GM's head because said player is way overpaid and should not have been given such a huge contract. Make up your mind fairweather Twins fans.

Dont get me wrong, I had absolutely no interest in Buerhle last yr as IMO he's not an ace but an innings eater (is a difference to me). I also wanted nothing to do with Santana at his salary (FA maybe).
I believe MN does a couple things. They will 'just' underbid on a player & then blame it on the market OR talk about a team wanting WAY too much in a trade when they knew there was no shot/interest to begin with BUT it makes the fanbase happy.
This has been the Twins MO for sometime. I hope they prove me wrong eventually but they have NEVER been a player in FA & I dont expect it this winter either, as the will blame it on the market.

mbents
11-04-2012, 04:31 PM
I would love to get James Shields as long as the Rays aren't asking for too much. I think Denard Span plus a good prospect is a lot, but it would be worth it, especially since we would have him for at least two years. Saying that Shields is "good but not great" is an understatement - he isn't great, but he's a very good pitcher. I do think TR thinks the Twins can contend in 2013, so this is the kind of deal I would expect him to pursue.

Brandon
11-04-2012, 05:29 PM
My problem, though, is this: I have serious, serious doubts that this team is going to contend for anything next season, and in my mind 2014 would be the first season that they legitimately could expect to be above .500. Maybe (hopefully) I'm dead wrong about this.

This is small thinking. The Twins are 3 starting pitchers away from competing next year and a few minor adjustments. Baker has a good chance of comming back. Gibson should be ready next spring too. There are numerous starting pitchers available as free agents and we also have players we are able to trade. We should compete next year, there are too many opportunities to get the job done. If we are not competing next year then TR failed.

twinscowboysbulls
11-04-2012, 05:46 PM
If the deal were to be Span and Benson, I think you do it no doubt, as long as it doesn cost us Span plus a highly regarded prospect, I think we do it. Then you sign Marcum and bring back Baker on an incentive laden deal and suddenly you aren't bad SP-wise.Hopefully you get Gibson/Hicks/Arcia ready to roll by May/June.

I think if you intend to trade for Shields, you need to extend him right away. If he were to pitch for us for only 2 years, I wouldn't really consider the deal to be a win for Minnesota.

Riverbrian
11-04-2012, 06:13 PM
The Twins should be making phone calls and discussing almost every pitcher in baseball.

SpantheMan
11-04-2012, 06:15 PM
Stop saying that Shields won't be valuable because we won't be competing. If we aren't, Span (most people think is the center of the package) won't be useful easier.

johnnydakota
11-04-2012, 06:32 PM
Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

i believe shields is ranked as the 11th best starter in baseball for 2012, with santana getting 15 million you think 23 million over 2 years is high for this inning eatting stud?my thoughts are that curly needs to offer up span and a handful of non factor prospects including our minor leaque pitcher of the year hermsen,but he needs to make this trade now, so free agent pitchers can look and see that there will be the making of a rotation other then diamond...

johnnydakota
11-04-2012, 06:37 PM
Can Shields win 20? I doubt it.

no but winning 15 is a 25%improvement over last years best pitcher....also would be worth about a 12 game swing in our standings

old nurse
11-04-2012, 06:53 PM
How the Twins inquire
Last winter: Mark Buerhle....we'd sign ya for 2 yrs, but you want 3 or 4, at least we inquired
This year: Ervin Santana: you gonna trade him or release him....ok we inquired
Same with Shields
Wont think differently untill they prove me wrong (I WANT to be proven wrong). Shields would be a great asset untill Rick Anderson imposses his 100 pitch limit on him.

You really want Santana and that contract for a year? The Royals gave up a mediocre, long time minor league pitcher and I bet they did not get the million of the buyout. 13 million for one year should buy you a better pitcher than Santana was last year. Now if the Angels loved some prospect you don't and you could get some cash.... The benefit of the inquiry is that it starts a conversation that leads you to know what mediocre prospects of yours they like. You could pluck another Brunansky off their minor league team.

Would have you wanted Buerle a 4 yrs/ 60 million?

Tampaa has aa few needs in the outfield. If you don't talk, you wont get anywhere

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-04-2012, 08:25 PM
I wouldn't be interested. Denard Span for Shields just appears like too much and there is realistically no way the Twins can walk away winners with that foundation. Dealing with Tampa is like dealing with the devil too.

Twins Fan From Afar
11-04-2012, 08:52 PM
My problem, though, is this: I have serious, serious doubts that this team is going to contend for anything next season, and in my mind 2014 would be the first season that they legitimately could expect to be above .500. Maybe (hopefully) I'm dead wrong about this.

This is small thinking. The Twins are 3 starting pitchers away from competing next year and a few minor adjustments. Baker has a good chance of comming back. Gibson should be ready next spring too. There are numerous starting pitchers available as free agents and we also have players we are able to trade. We should compete next year, there are too many opportunities to get the job done. If we are not competing next year then TR failed.

I'm not quite sure how this is small thinking. If the Twins intend to compete next year against, for example, Detroit, they need -- according to you -- to get 3/5 of a new pitching rotation. That alone is significant. Then there is the left side of the infield. Then there is second base. Then there's hoping that Span, Morneau and Mauer stay as healthy as they did last season.

I'm not suggesting that this is not possible. I am suggesting that, for 2013, that is a tall order, and might not be feasible, considering that this team does have a budget (whether or not we, as fans, agree with that budget).

Brandon
11-04-2012, 09:40 PM
On most years you would be right that 3 pitchers would be a tall order. But there are too many possibilities for us not to be able to get it done this year. we have 2 exess players that are tradeable and an OF prospect or 2 as well. We have 25 or so million off the books and Gibson and Hendricks could be 2 of the pitchers next year. There are numerous FA in our price range. Yes this will be difficult but we have more tools to get it done than most others do too. and once we get 3 pitchers all we are looking at to push us forward is bench and bullpen depth. again not too tall of an order,

USAFChief
11-04-2012, 10:01 PM
I wouldn't be interested. Denard Span for Shields just appears like too much and there is realistically no way the Twins can walk away winners with that foundation. Dealing with Tampa is like dealing with the devil too.

Span is too much for Shields?

Get a grip, people.

beckmt
11-04-2012, 11:54 PM
I would pay Span and Parmalee. That is dealing from excess to get a front line starter. Rays may wnat to deal Hellickson instead and I wonder what it would take. Twins seem like a good fit to Tampa as they have a couple of cost controled players for a pitcher or two. Twins outfield prospects should be ready by 2014 - 2015. This helps buy time as I expect at least one of the prospects to be ready this year.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 07:35 AM
I wouldn't be interested. Denard Span for Shields just appears like too much and there is realistically no way the Twins can walk away winners with that foundation. Dealing with Tampa is like dealing with the devil too.

Span is too much for Shields?

Get a grip, people.

Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

ThePuck
11-05-2012, 07:55 AM
Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Did I read that right? Marcum and Grienke are better than Shields?

Brock Beauchamp
11-05-2012, 08:12 AM
Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Did I read that right? Marcum and Grienke are better than Shields?

Well, I'd consider Greinke better than Shields (though not by much and you can make an argument for Shields).

Marcum, not so much.

Twins Twerp
11-05-2012, 08:12 AM
I wouldn't be interested. Denard Span for Shields just appears like too much and there is realistically no way the Twins can walk away winners with that foundation. Dealing with Tampa is like dealing with the devil too.

Span is too much for Shields?

Get a grip, people.

Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Marcum will get less money and probably only 1 or 2 years. Greinke will get way more than Shields salary next year and for many more years...Your comment may be correct if you average Greinke and Marcum next year, than you are probably correct.

Oh ya, and I'd rather have the draft pick

Top Gun
11-05-2012, 08:52 AM
A 500 pitcher is not worth Span, just as well sign a FA then. We need a ace, A #1 pitcher for the long-term, then build around what we got.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 09:24 AM
Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Did I read that right? Marcum and Grienke are better than Shields?

Check out their career ERAs and ERA+. Marcum and Greinke are both better. You may want to look at some stats sometime. They are really nice.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 09:28 AM
I wouldn't be interested. Denard Span for Shields just appears like too much and there is realistically no way the Twins can walk away winners with that foundation. Dealing with Tampa is like dealing with the devil too.

Span is too much for Shields?

Get a grip, people.

Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Marcum will get less money and probably only 1 or 2 years. Greinke will get way more than Shields salary next year and for many more years...Your comment may be correct if you average Greinke and Marcum next year, than you are probably correct.

Oh ya, and I'd rather have the draft pick

You'd take a crapshoot draft pick over one of the MLBs best outfielders? Span should be able to net some prospects with a better chance at the show than one 30-40 selection ever could. It's also extremely unlikely that the pick would ever perform at a higher level than he has.

ThePuck
11-05-2012, 09:50 AM
Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Did I read that right? Marcum and Grienke are better than Shields?

Check out their career ERAs and ERA+. Marcum and Greinke are both better. You may want to look at some stats sometime. They are really nice.

I'd rather look at what they've done recently and the competition they face on a regular basis. I'll also look at WHIP and, even more importantly, the INNINGS they've pitched to get those ERAs you mentioned. Shields has gone over 200 innings 6 straight years. Marcum got over 200 once...and just barely. Marcum doesn't come close to Shields, Grienke is much closer, though not quite the workhorse. Thanks for the telling me to look at stats though...

ThePuck
11-05-2012, 09:58 AM
Well sure. Go ahead. Trade the best asset for what you could get on the free agent market. Marcum and Greinke would make about the same money as Shields is getting now and they are both better. I'd rather forfeit a draft pick than Span. Shields is a free agent after 2014 too. So if you're someone who would dislike an Elvis Andrus deal, this is for you.

Did I read that right? Marcum and Grienke are better than Shields?

Well, I'd consider Greinke better than Shields (though not by much and you can make an argument for Shields).

Marcum, not so much.

Marcum is not even close...Grienke is comparable, but he's gonna cost a lot more....and I'd personally still take Shields first.

Kwak
11-05-2012, 10:11 AM
Perhaps a step back to reflect. Ryan has stated that starting pitching was the #1 priority, that he would get three new starting pitchers, and that the Twins would compete. Failing that mission of three new SPs would leave him with neglible creditability for any future announcements. It makes no sense to add three warm bodies like those used in 2012 and proclaim "I signed three new pitchers". These guys have to have creditability as SPs. It is also known that the Twins have an excess of young OFs. The decision comes down to how important is it to acquire those three SPs and which of the young OFs should the Twins trade. Span has performed well, but let's face it the Twins haven't placed a high value on him. Span didn't get promoted in '07 when it was clear that Hunter was not staying. Span was evaluated as "not the next CF" in the player evaluation before the '08 season. The contract he was offered (and signed) was clear indication that the Twins did not consider him an "elite" CF. I like Span a lot, but I sense the Twins not-so-much. He has been "on the market" before so I conclude that Ryan intends to move him this off-season. If we conclude that he "is gone", then for who? As part of a package for decent SP, then his leaving is not in vain. I would not be surprised if the Twins make a deal with Tampa that there will be multiple players from both teams involved and that Span and Shields are simply the most established players in the deal.

mike wants wins
11-05-2012, 10:27 AM
I do not care who they talk to or who they are "in on". They have used that PR mumbo jumbo in the past. Talk is cheap. All I care about is who they get for what.

Brock Beauchamp
11-05-2012, 10:41 AM
Marcum is not even close...Grienke is comparable, but he's gonna cost a lot more....and I'd personally still take Shields first.

No, Marcum is not even close to Shields. Between Greinke and Shields, I'd probably prefer Shields because of money and duration of contract. You just can't rely on high-end pitching to perform for 5+ years.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 12:59 PM
The only stat that matters is how many runs you give up. WHIP is used for better judgement of where ERA should be. Both Shields and Marcum are 30 and it's pretty obvious that the ERAs are going to stay consistent where they are. IPs are a manager's decision and I believe that's been hammered into poster's heads enough here. Regardless of who's better (I'll take either), they are close. Saying "not even close" is just ridiculous hyberbole. Anyway, the point is that trading Denard Span for something we could get without trading Denard Span is stupid and I'm just thankful you're not running the organization. Be it Greinke or Marcum in this situation I don't care.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 01:01 PM
Marcum is not even close...Grienke is comparable, but he's gonna cost a lot more....and I'd personally still take Shields first.

No, Marcum is not even close to Shields. Between Greinke and Shields, I'd probably prefer Shields because of money and duration of contract. You just can't rely on high-end pitching to perform for 5+ years.

A .18 difference in ERA last year is not even close??? Marcum also has better career numbers as I said previously. Talk about WHIP (.001 career difference), and SO/BB all you want. It doesn't matter because Marcum will still give up roughly the same amount of runs. Same for Shields.

ThePuck
11-05-2012, 01:06 PM
A .18 difference in ERA last year is not even close??? Marcum also has better career numbers as I said previously. Talk about WHIP (.001 career difference), and SO/BB all you want. It doesn't matter because Marcum will still give up roughly the same amount of runs. Same for Shields.

And he won't work anywhere near the same amount of innings while doing it..

and IP is a factor...we know the more innings the starter can go while being effective (as Shields has shown he can do), it helps the bullpen and we don't know how the ERA would balloon up (or not) for Marcum if he got his innings jacked up to match Shields'.

And Shields has pitched in a much tougher division.

But if you want to believe Marcum is every bit the pitcher Shields is, fine...I believe most would disagree

Brock Beauchamp
11-05-2012, 01:14 PM
Marcum is not even close...Grienke is comparable, but he's gonna cost a lot more....and I'd personally still take Shields first.

No, Marcum is not even close to Shields. Between Greinke and Shields, I'd probably prefer Shields because of money and duration of contract. You just can't rely on high-end pitching to perform for 5+ years.

A .18 difference in ERA last year is not even close??? Marcum also has better career numbers as I said previously. Talk about WHIP (.001 career difference), and SO/BB all you want. It doesn't matter because Marcum will still give up roughly the same amount of runs. Same for Shields.

You can't compare a pitcher from the AL East to a pitcher in the NL Central using straight statistics and expect me to agree with your assessment.

Shields' xFIP was nearly 1.00 lower than Marcum's in 2012. Shields also pitched ~80 more innings, if I recall correctly.

I'd love to see Marcum on the Twins in 2013. That doesn't mean he's the equal of Shields.

ericchri
11-05-2012, 01:28 PM
The only stat that matters is how many runs you give up. WHIP is used for better judgement of where ERA should be. Both Shields and Marcum are 30 and it's pretty obvious that the ERAs are going to stay consistent where they are. IPs are a manager's decision and I believe that's been hammered into poster's heads enough here. Regardless of who's better (I'll take either), they are close. Saying "not even close" is just ridiculous hyberbole. Anyway, the point is that trading Denard Span for something we could get without trading Denard Span is stupid and I'm just thankful you're not running the organization. Be it Greinke or Marcum in this situation I don't care.

You trade Span for Shields because it is a net increase in payroll of only ~$5 million per year, not 10-12, with the presumed effect of not decreasing your lineup too badly in the process (defense might be a different issue, however, if Parmelee then takes over RF). If you want to add 3 decent SP this offseason, it's going to take something like that, as opposed to only buying FA starters. I think the real question is what it takes to get Shields. As long as we're not throwing in one of our top 6-8 prospects in addition to Span, I could probably live with it.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 01:36 PM
Marcum is not even close...Grienke is comparable, but he's gonna cost a lot more....and I'd personally still take Shields first.

No, Marcum is not even close to Shields. Between Greinke and Shields, I'd probably prefer Shields because of money and duration of contract. You just can't rely on high-end pitching to perform for 5+ years.

A .18 difference in ERA last year is not even close??? Marcum also has better career numbers as I said previously. Talk about WHIP (.001 career difference), and SO/BB all you want. It doesn't matter because Marcum will still give up roughly the same amount of runs. Same for Shields.

You can't compare a pitcher from the AL East to a pitcher in the NL Central using straight statistics and expect me to agree with your assessment.

Shields' xFIP was nearly 1.00 lower than Marcum's in 2012. Shields also pitched ~80 more innings, if I recall correctly.

I'd love to see Marcum on the Twins in 2013. That doesn't mean he's the equal of Shields.

I don't put any value whatsoever on that argument at all. Marcum pitched in the AL East for 5 years and put up the best numbers of his career in his last two with the Blue Jays. Not much use for xFip here since it's used to predict where ERA should be. In Marcum's case, it hasn't gone anywhere the past few years. Shields ERA has been all over the place though, so it makes sense there, but I think we should value consistency more.

Twins Twerp
11-05-2012, 02:21 PM
Can't we have both Marcum AND Shields? Why is everyone so angry. Lets inquire about both men and see where that INQUIRY gets us?

Willihammer
11-05-2012, 02:26 PM
xFIP needs qualifying for both pitchers in this case. It assumes a league average HR/FB rate, and Shields' has fluctuated more than most pitchers. But Shield's would seem to have noticed since he has found a way to reduce his FB rate and increase his GB rate in the last two seasons in order to minimize the effect of HR/FB variability. For Marcum, some of his value is tied up in Fielding Dependent Pitching which explains at least partly why his ERA consistently outperforms his xFIP. Marcum has 6.5 career FDP wins to Shields' -.5.

The bottom line is Shields would probably require less money, less years, and is trending into a better pitcher while showing none of the possible signs of injury Marcum is showing, namely elbow soreness. Marcum can't even get a qualifying offer from the Brewers, who have money to spend. So even if you don't buy that Shields is the better talent, he is at worst equivalent while being cheaper and less risky.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 02:34 PM
xFIP needs qualifying for both pitchers in this case. It assumes a league average HR/FB rate, and Shields' has fluctuated more than most pitchers. But Shield's would seem to have noticed since he has found a way to reduce his FB rate and increase his GB rate in the last two seasons in order to minimize the effect of HR/FB variability. For Marcum, some of his value is tied up in Fielding Dependent Pitching which explains at least partly why his ERA consistently outperforms his xFIP. Marcum has 6.5 career FDP wins to Shields' -.5.

The bottom line is Shields would probably require less money, less years, and is trending into a better pitcher while showing none of the possible signs of injury Marcum is showing, namely elbow soreness. Marcum can't even get a qualifying offer from the Brewers, who have money to spend. So even if you don't buy that Shields is the better talent, he is at worst equivalent while being cheaper and less risky.

Like I've said, I really don't care who the better pitcher is. Shields is of course more talented, but his short deal and minor inconsistencies worriy me. I'd just be happier if Span was traded for something else. Marcum+Prospects>Shields-Span-Prospects

John Bonnes
11-05-2012, 02:37 PM
I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.

Willihammer
11-05-2012, 03:02 PM
They may even take cash.

They also need a first baseman.

The Twins don't necessarily have to give up their best prospects, In fact, according to John's source, they may even trade for Span straight up. But we don't even know what the Rays are asking for at this point really

johnnydakota
11-05-2012, 03:11 PM
kc has been linked twice with the rays including a block buster trade of price and shields or shields and hellickson
tampas needs are another 3b catcher outfielder (cf) 1b and a dh(buster onley)would a package of willingham span, herrman and hermsen be enough to get both shields and hellickson? then turn around and trade a pair of marginal prospects to the angels for vernon wells and 38 of his 48 million? i believe wells is a better outfielder the ham and may actually rebound nicely in minnesota nice no pressure citys?

johnnydakota
11-05-2012, 03:25 PM
I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.
i will argue they want mlb players over prospects, with the red sox in turmoil and the yankees being old, this may be the time for the rays to make the move...,but with tampa you never know ,right now they have 11 starters that could make the twins rotation better between there bullpen rotation and AAA ,but i think shields is a must for the twins and faster the better,with james on board it will only make signing other free agents that much easier

nicksaviking
11-05-2012, 03:33 PM
If it comes down to a Twins package vs a Royals package, the contest is over. Some combination of Moustakas/Hosmer/Myers/Duffy/Starling/et al. will likely blow away any offer the Twins could realistically consider without mortgaging the future of the offense.

old nurse
11-05-2012, 03:34 PM
I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.

They draft extremely well. The prospects received for Garza and Kazmir have not panned out. A good salesman could trade major league talent. A slick trader could trade a couple for Shields and a decent pitching prospect.

Kwak
11-05-2012, 04:07 PM
I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.

They draft extremely well. The prospects received for Garza and Kazmir have not panned out. A good salesman could trade major league talent. A slick trader could trade a couple for Shields and a decent pitching prospect.
Is Ryan a "slick trader"?

notoriousgod71
11-05-2012, 06:26 PM
If you're not going to trade Span for Shields what would you trade him for?

You can't win without pitching. This team could realistically contend with the addition of three starting pitchers. All it costs is money and the want to. Span is replaceable. We're not discussing Willie Mays here.

Kwak
11-05-2012, 07:35 PM
If you're not going to trade Span for Shields what would you trade him for?

You can't win without pitching. This team could realistically contend with the addition of three starting pitchers. All it costs is money and the want to. Span is replaceable. We're not discussing Willie Mays here.

+1!

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-05-2012, 08:09 PM
derp

http://i48.tinypic.com/2eg8rnq.png

Bark's Lounge
11-05-2012, 08:22 PM
As a dimwitted Twin's fan, I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."

The one guy I would want that the Ray's have is unobtainable - Matt Moore. The team friendly contract he signed in the last year further cements that. If I was Terry Ryan, I would give Friedman a call and say - "Hey Andy, I want to give you Justin Morneau and we'll eat all of his salary next year, Denard Span, and Joe Benson for... have you guessed yet? Are you ready for it? Matt Moore!

Friedman will either hang up, say no thanks, or want Hicks, Gibson, or Arcia instead of Benson if not more.

THE END.

old nurse
11-05-2012, 08:30 PM
I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.

They draft extremely well. The prospects received for Garza and Kazmir have not panned out. A good salesman could trade major league talent. A slick trader could trade a couple for Shields and a decent pitching prospect.
Is Ryan a "slick trader"?

When all he could do is trade players for prospects he came out ahead. Ryan lost when he traded the residents of Gardy's doghouse. There are those on this board who would say no to him being a slick trader. Trading for established talent and signing free agents to larger contracts is new territory for the Ryan crew.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-05-2012, 09:08 PM
As a dimwitted Twin's fan, I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."

The one guy I would want that the Ray's have is unobtainable - Matt Moore. The team friendly contract he signed in the last year further cements that. If I was Terry Ryan, I would give Friedman a call and say - "Hey Andy, I want to give you Justin Morneau and we'll eat all of his salary next year, Denard Span, and Joe Benson for... have you guessed yet? Are you ready for it? Matt Moore!

Friedman will either hang up, say no thanks, or want Hicks, Gibson, or Arcia instead of Benson if not more.

THE END.

What if they extend Shields? And the Twins very well can be a contender in 2014, no reason why they can't. 2013 isn't even out of reach, getting a front line guy like Shields is an excellent way to start though. If they can somehow get Shields, Baker+ Another solid pitcher off the FA market (Marcum). I like our chances. Shields, Marcum, Baker, Gibson, Diamond/Hendriks. That is a potentially very nice rotation.

johnnydakota
11-05-2012, 09:25 PM
sanchez is the pitcher to target even to the point of over paying...every win he gets for the twins is a win the tigers dont get....

kab21
11-05-2012, 09:32 PM
the innings pitched advantage that shields has on Marcum is a huge advantage. This isn't due to Marcum's usage by his manager. It's due to the fact that he gets injured a lot. With that being said he is quite underrated in this thread.

The reason that you trade Span for shields is that keeping Span also does little to help the Twins long term and teams are currently hoarding prospects. While it's not that great that Shields becomes a FA in 2 years the Twins will also likely net a draft pick or get a nice deadline deal.

TheLeviathan
11-05-2012, 09:33 PM
I think my favorite part was when it was said that we could "realistically contend" if we just add "three more pitchers." When you couple that with the idea that Span is worth a top starter and you can tell why this thread is getting pretty silly. Span isn't going to land you Shields unless you're willing to attach a significant prospect to it.

That's far too many assets devoted to the immediate future after two near 100 loss seasons. It's just a foolish waste IMO.

USAFChief
11-05-2012, 09:39 PM
As a dimwitted Twin's fan, I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."



So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

TheLeviathan
11-05-2012, 10:03 PM
So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

The analogy doesn't work (not well for Bark either, but to stick with it) because the problem here isn't that you totally punt 2013 and 2014, it's just that you avoid investing money and assets into acquiring someone who won't be here any longer than that. If you want to pour a bunch of money into a guy like Grienke or Marcum or someone likely to be here 2-4 years. Fine. But trading Span and a minor leaguer to get a guy there is virtually no chance you resign in two years? That's bad organizational planning.

notoriousgod71
11-05-2012, 10:08 PM
I think most people over value prospects far too much.

Physics Guy
11-05-2012, 10:14 PM
You can all keep arguing Shields vs Marcum all you want, but I'm with VodkaDave and want them both. They both have solid stats in their years in the AL East. The stats can be used to argue either way depending on which stats you cherry-pick to support your argument. The way the Twins do business, the only way they get two 10M starters is by shedding Span's contract. I think Shields is due around 10M and Marcum might get close to 10M (although I think his elbow issues may limit him). By shedding Span's 6+M contract it makes room for Baker also. They might be able to get all three for around $20M in additional salary (Shields+Marcum+Baker-Span). Whether TR is willing to do that, who knows?

The big issue is what it would take in addition to Span to get Shields. If they can get him without touching their top 10 prospects, I could live with it. If they can somehow free a younger guy such as Minor or Hellickson, I'd prefer that but I'm not sure we can get pull such a trade off.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-05-2012, 10:45 PM
I'd like to see Span traded for a pair of AA-AAA pitchers.

Bark's Lounge
11-05-2012, 10:53 PM
So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

The analogy doesn't work (not well for Bark either, but to stick with it) because the problem here isn't that you totally punt 2013 and 2014, it's just that you avoid investing money and assets into acquiring someone who won't be here any longer than that. If you want to pour a bunch of money into a guy like Grienke or Marcum or someone likely to be here 2-4 years. Fine. But trading Span and a minor leaguer to get a guy there is virtually no chance you resign in two years? That's bad organizational planning.

Agreed. My analogy sucked. It is not not the first time, and I can assuredly say it won't be the last.

I am glad there are some hopeful posters who think the Twins will trade Denard Span and a prospect for James Shields, sign Shaun Marcum, resign Scott Baker, yakity, yak, yak, and win the World Series. I am not one who subscribes to that theory.

I hope the Twins make some smart moves that can raise their success level the next few years without mortgaging their future. Reality whispers in my ear, informing me that the 2000's Twins are now defunct. I now patiently await the new wave of Twin's prospects who will fill the roster, develop with good to great success and the Twins are at a place where it makes sense to add pricey/semi-pricey free agents.

From 2000-2010, we had mostly playoff teams. With 2006 being the exception, none of these teams looked or felt like a world championship team. I've seen enough Twin's playoff baseball to know I'd rather they not make the playoffs until we have a team that acts and smells like they are the group of guys that can win the Big Sha-Bang!

kab21
11-05-2012, 11:43 PM
I'm as much as a pessimist as the next guy guy I thought but resigning Baker (highly likely) and trading for Shields is a good start of getting back to competitive in the short term. I'm not for trading Span and a top prospect but Tampa doesn't have a lot of partners in a Shields trade and I think they have made it clear that they will trade shields. What other team has a good up the middle (C/MI/CF) player on a cheap contract that will get traded for a starter making 11/yr? The only team I can think of is Texas IF they put Andrus into play (easily beating the Twins offer).

Physics Guy
11-06-2012, 12:12 AM
I'm as much as a pessimist as the next guy guy I thought but resigning Baker (highly likely) and trading for Shields is a good start of getting back to competitive in the short term. I'm not for trading Span and a top prospect but Tampa doesn't have a lot of partners in a Shields trade and I think they have made it clear that they will trade shields. What other team has a good up the middle (C/MI/CF) player on a cheap contract that will get traded for a starter making 11/yr? The only team I can think of is Texas IF they put Andrus into play (easily beating the Twins offer).

Agreed that Texas blows us out of the water, but I've seen proposals that the Rangers would possibly go after Price if they offer Andrus. I think Price is going to get (pardon the pun) pricey for that franchise and I've read rumblings they may look to move him.

70charger
11-06-2012, 12:51 AM
As a dimwitted Twin's fan, I do not see the upside to a Shields trade. In the 2 years the Twins will have control of his contract they will not be contenders - of course one could say anything is possible and we could win in 2013 or 2014, but that is a horrible way to plan the future and strategize a long term plan of success. It would be the equivalent of a middle aged man or woman who makes 40K a year without a pension telling themselves - "I don't have to save or invest any money for my retirement because I feel confident I will win the lottery next year."


If your argument is that Shields won't be around for Twins' success, then why would you think Span would? Unless 2015 is quite clearly the year the magic happens?

Span has only one year more on his contract than Shields, and it's an option year no less.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-06-2012, 01:50 AM
I think my favorite part was when it was said that we could "realistically contend" if we just add "three more pitchers." When you couple that with the idea that Span is worth a top starter and you can tell why this thread is getting pretty silly. Span isn't going to land you Shields unless you're willing to attach a significant prospect to it.

That's far too many assets devoted to the immediate future after two near 100 loss seasons. It's just a foolish waste IMO.

Do you ever get tired by playing your heel role when it comes to anything Minnesota Sports?

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-06-2012, 02:02 AM
I'm as much as a pessimist as the next guy guy I thought but resigning Baker (highly likely) and trading for Shields is a good start of getting back to competitive in the short term. I'm not for trading Span and a top prospect but Tampa doesn't have a lot of partners in a Shields trade and I think they have made it clear that they will trade shields. What other team has a good up the middle (C/MI/CF) player on a cheap contract that will get traded for a starter making 11/yr? The only team I can think of is Texas IF they put Andrus into play (easily beating the Twins offer).

Yeah, I have a feeling they hold onto Andrus for a bit, or aim a bit higher then Shields at this point if they want to trade Andrus. As long as the "minor leaguer" included in the Span for Shields trade isn't one of Sano, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Gibson, Buxton, Berrios, I really don't think the Twins ultimately give up to much. Also I really don't understand where all this "The Twins won't be able to sign Shields to an extension" garbage is coming from, other then being a good pitcher there is nothing to suggest he wouldn't be open to such a thing, it's not like he is a Boras client or whatever. His agency is PSI, which features other "huge" names such as Dana Eveland, Doug Fister and Luke Scott (the rest are pretty slim pickens)

Unrelated/off topic: I think NOW is the time to try to trade Rosario for something, if the kid can't stick at 2B he loses a ton of value. I have a bad feeling his value will never be higher then it is now, and I sorta have concerns about him sticking in the MI, perhaps trade him now for a high upside minor league pitcher and hope for the best?

Steve J
11-06-2012, 04:56 AM
Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

Fangraphs values his performance the past two years as $21.9m and $19.3m respectively. It's quite plausible his value exceeds $18m each of the next two seasons. The going rate on the FA market is about $10m for a decent #3 starter, and usually with a comittment of at least three years. Shields looks very much like a 'number 1', is only 30 years old, and the type of pitcher he is doesn't seem to be prone to suddenly falling off a cliff in their early 30's.

TB is looking for pitching because every team is always looking for pitching. I'm just not sure they'll like what we have.

Brock Beauchamp
11-06-2012, 06:09 AM
Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.

Fangraphs values his performance the past two years as $21.9m and $19.3m respectively. It's quite plausible his value exceeds $18m each of the next two seasons. The going rate on the FA market is about $10m for a decent #3 starter, and usually with a comittment of at least three years. Shields looks very much like a 'number 1', is only 30 years old, and the type of pitcher he is doesn't seem to be prone to suddenly falling off a cliff in their early 30's.

TB is looking for pitching because every team is always looking for pitching. I'm just not sure they'll like what we have.

Fangraphs valued Span at $17.4m last season. Span is under contract for three years at almost the same price Shields is for two.

Again, if they want much more than Span for Shields, I'd pass.

TheLeviathan
11-06-2012, 06:40 AM
Do you ever get tired by playing your heel role when it comes to anything Minnesota Sports?

Where do I get the koolaid that makes almost laughably, childishly naive? But if you want to start a T-Wolves thread I'd be really optimistic! (Hint: They don't suck)

Top Gun
11-06-2012, 08:10 AM
Matt Moore would be a great pitcher to get, he will be a 20 game winner real soon!

old nurse
11-06-2012, 08:22 AM
Do you ever get tired by playing your heel role when it comes to anything Minnesota Sports?

Where do I get the koolaid that makes almost laughably, childishly naive? But if you want to start a T-Wolves thread I'd be really optimistic! (Hint: They don't suck)


You probably pissed and moaned over every move they made when the Timberwolves did suck. Also 26-40 is a great record?

TheLeviathan
11-06-2012, 11:20 AM
They are 2-1 with reasons to be optimistic. Back to back 90+ loss seasons deserve pessimism. You are entitled to be optimistic but ridiculing pessimism because it doesnt make you a real fan is stupid.

old nurse
11-06-2012, 11:30 AM
They are 2-1 with reasons to be optimistic. Back to back 90+ loss seasons deserve pessimism. You are entitled to be optimistic but ridiculing pessimism because it doesnt make you a real fan is stupid.


Ridiculing optimism with this statement

"Where do I get the koolaid that makes almost laughably, childishly naive? But if you want to start a T-Wolves thread I'd be really optimistic! (Hint: They don't suck)"

makes you what?

TheLeviathan
11-06-2012, 11:35 AM
Dave goes beyond optimistic - I was replying to him. He is right now planning the next ten years of World Series parades after Deduno took a minor league deal. He's in his own ballpark.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-06-2012, 11:37 AM
Dave goes beyond optimistic - I was replying to him. He is right now planning the next ten years of World Series parades after Deduno took a minor league deal. He's in his own ballpark.

Yeah, that simply isn't true. I said the Twins have the chance to compete in 2013 if they fix the rotation, adding Shields, Baker and Gibson IMO gives them enough of a chance to compete in a weak AL Central. Also there is zero reason why with Ryan at the helm they can't compete in 2014.

I admit I was wrong in my prediction for 2012 when I said they would win 78-84 games, but that wasn't exactly me predicting 10 world series. You need to lay off the hyperbole, champ.

twinscowboysbulls
11-06-2012, 11:39 AM
Matt Moore would be a great pitcher to get, he will be a 20 game winner real soon!

Good grief, give the 20 game winner stuff a break.

johnnydakota
11-06-2012, 12:48 PM
Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.

If that's what the Rays are asking, they can keep Shields. He's a good, not great, pitcher who is due to make ~$22m over the next two seasons. It doesn't make sense to pay significant prospects for a guy who isn't priced much below what he'd get on the free agent market.
shields was the 11 best starter in 2012 , and was ranked higher in 2011...and which pitcher of the twins broke the top 50? top 75even?

johnnydakota
11-06-2012, 12:58 PM
So by planning not to contend in 2013 and 2014--doing nothing at all to better your team--you somehow magically become a contender at some undetermined future point in time?

This is like a middle aged person making $40K per year telling themselves "I don't have to work to pay the rent or eat for the next couple years, because I feel confident by doing nothing to improve myself now, I will hit the lottery before I die."

The analogy doesn't work (not well for Bark either, but to stick with it) because the problem here isn't that you totally punt 2013 and 2014, it's just that you avoid investing money and assets into acquiring someone who won't be here any longer than that. If you want to pour a bunch of money into a guy like Grienke or Marcum or someone likely to be here 2-4 years. Fine. But trading Span and a minor leaguer to get a guy there is virtually no chance you resign in two years? That's bad organizational planning.

so you want to keep 13 pitchers 3 catchers and 6 outfielders?,id love to keep span and trade lil ben , but ...who is worth more

TheLeviathan
11-06-2012, 04:26 PM
I admit I was wrong in my prediction for 2012 when I said they would win 78-84 games, but that wasn't exactly me predicting 10 world series. You need to lay off the hyperbole, champ.

Drudging up the overly optimistic Dave predictions would take centuries - there have been so many comically awful examples that it doesn't pay to just pick one. You're an optimist, great. The rest of us in the real world suffered with awful game experiences, no ability to sell season tickets when we couldn't make a game, inept play, and a product barely worth paying attention to unless you are a diehard. I've earned the right to be a pessimist and so has any other Twins fan.

So no, I don't feel trading Span and a prospect for a two year rental is a sound idea. You want to swap him for Mike Minor, Tommy Hanson, or some other expanded deal with a prospect - fine. At least then you're helping the organization long-term and not trying to chase some naive delusion of contention.

John Bonnes
11-06-2012, 04:50 PM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-06-2012, 04:54 PM
Dave goes beyond optimistic - I was replying to him. He is right now planning the next ten years of World Series parades after Deduno took a minor league deal. He's in his own ballpark.

Yeah, that simply isn't true. I said the Twins have the chance to compete in 2013 if they fix the rotation, adding Shields, Baker and Gibson IMO gives them enough of a chance to compete in a weak AL Central. Also there is zero reason why with Ryan at the helm they can't compete in 2014.

I admit I was wrong in my prediction for 2012 when I said they would win 78-84 games, but that wasn't exactly me predicting 10 world series. You need to lay off the hyperbole, champ.

Adding one really good pitcher turns a 90+ loss team to a ~75 loss one? Baker is coming off Tommy John and Kyle Gibson will be a rookie. There is not enough depth behind them in the case something goes wrong either. You can't expect a rotation with that many question marks to put the Twins into contention, especially with a below average offense (without Span). The chances would be slightly less slim than last year's, but are still not significant.

The Twins need to do much more to compete in 2013. Say we trade Span for Shields, as the majority of people here including yourself seem intent on for some reason, the Twins need at least 2 more quality pitchers and a power bat to even think about contending with the Tigers. Can you really see them winning 88 again next year? God knows that team underachieved until the post-season.

Steve J
11-06-2012, 04:58 PM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Or have 2 years and 440 innings of very good pitching, then throw him a qualifying offer at the end...

ThePuck
11-06-2012, 05:05 PM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Or have 2 years and 440 innings of very good pitching, then throw him a qualifying offer at the end...

Or just resign him...like right away...

darin617
11-06-2012, 05:28 PM
Matt Moore would be a great pitcher to get, he will be a 20 game winner real soon!

Good grief, give the 20 game winner stuff a break.

Exactly, It's not like you have to be a great pitcher to win 20 games. You can just be very lucky and get a ton of run support and not have the bullpen screw you over too much. You could easily have a pitcher win 20 and have an ERA close to 5 and does that make him a good pitcher? No.

ThePuck
11-06-2012, 05:30 PM
You could easily have a pitcher win 20 and have an ERA close to 5 and does that make him a good pitcher?

I wonder how many times that's happened...since teams went to five man rotations...where a guy won 20 or more games and had an ERA close to 5 (I'd say close would be 4.76 or higher (close to 5 than 4.5)

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-06-2012, 05:33 PM
Matt Moore would be a great pitcher to get, he will be a 20 game winner real soon!

Good grief, give the 20 game winner stuff a break.

You could easily have a pitcher win 20 and have an ERA close to 5 and does that make him a good pitcher?.

I think that would be pretty difficult to do.

SpiritofVodkaDave
11-06-2012, 05:37 PM
I admit I was wrong in my prediction for 2012 when I said they would win 78-84 games, but that wasn't exactly me predicting 10 world series. You need to lay off the hyperbole, champ.

Drudging up the overly optimistic Dave predictions would take centuries - there have been so many comically awful examples that it doesn't pay to just pick one. You're an optimist, great. The rest of us in the real world suffered with awful game experiences, no ability to sell season tickets when we couldn't make a game, inept play, and a product barely worth paying attention to unless you are a diehard. I've earned the right to be a pessimist and so has any other Twins fan.

So no, I don't feel trading Span and a prospect for a two year rental is a sound idea. You want to swap him for Mike Minor, Tommy Hanson, or some other expanded deal with a prospect - fine. At least then you're helping the organization long-term and not trying to chase some naive delusion of contention.

Well yeah I'd obviously prefer Tommy Hanson as well, but I live in the real world where opposing GMS aren't lining up to get destroyed in trades. On that note, maybe we should try to get Strausburg or Matt Moore as well in a Span centered deal!

TheLeviathan
11-06-2012, 05:44 PM
Well yeah I'd obviously prefer Tommy Hanson as well, but I live in the real world where opposing GMS aren't lining up to get destroyed in trades. On that note, maybe we should try to get Strausburg or Matt Moore as well in a Span centered deal!

Cute to hear you lecture on realism! Jeez Dave - what's with your heel schtick on JR's ability to fleece people? (Look, it sounds just as obnoxious and stupid when I do it!)

I don't care who the name is, in my opinion we maximize Span by dealing him for something akin to what KC did for Broxton. Or we trade him for someone with team control. Shields is a good pitcher but he's unlikely to stay here long-term when he has a chance to cash-in and you won't get as much for a pitcher in the final year of his deal. (See: Grienke) And all of this is assuming the price with Span isn't high. (It likely is) So, for many reasons, Shields doesn't make sense. Dangle Span for someone with 3-4 years on this team or start dangling Willingham for the Sheilds-types.

righty8383
11-06-2012, 06:34 PM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Or have 2 years and 440 innings of very good pitching, then throw him a qualifying offer at the end...

Or just resign him...like right away...

Ding ding ding!

Willihammer
11-06-2012, 09:31 PM
Shields' velocity gain suggests his arm is well and he and can be counted on to be pitching at the trade deadline, and probably pitching well. Span's concussion history on the other hand, suggests he may be the bigger injury risk.

Every year there are are pitchers on all-in clubs that go down with TJ's or torn labrums. So there would be nothing to stop the Twins trading Shields at the deadline for prospects or whatever if the season goes south early and there is a buyer out there desperate for pitching. Heck, they could flip him yet this winter.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-06-2012, 10:45 PM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Or have 2 years and 440 innings of very good pitching, then throw him a qualifying offer at the end...

Or just resign him...like right away...

Ding ding ding!

Maybe if Shields' agent was the anti-Boras.

Steve J
11-07-2012, 02:07 AM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Or have 2 years and 440 innings of very good pitching, then throw him a qualifying offer at the end...

Or just resign him...like right away...

What would Shield's motivation to do that be? just so he can give you a discount in exchange for years he would probably be health through, given his history?

ThePuck
11-08-2012, 09:16 AM
Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Or have 2 years and 440 innings of very good pitching, then throw him a qualifying offer at the end...

Or just resign him...like right away...

What would Shield's motivation to do that be? just so he can give you a discount in exchange for years he would probably be health through, given his history?

It would be worth attempting to do, no? Obviously it takes two sides, but my point was, we shouldn't trade for him without trying hard to keep him longer than 2 years...

johnnydakota
11-08-2012, 10:14 AM
forget shields , marcum , grienke haren ...kevins will be here ,im sure corriea and slowey after all terry lyan said 3 starters , he didnt say good starters , or he had his fingers crossed , you know its something like that ....we couldnt compete dollar wise , the market didnt justify those number of years we made an offer we tried dont know what went wrong ....same ole same ole

Dilligaf69
11-08-2012, 01:19 PM
I'd definitely do Span/Benson but doubt that would be enough.

Dilligaf69
11-08-2012, 01:21 PM
forget shields , marcum , grienke haren ...kevins will be here ,im sure corriea and slowey after all terry lyan said 3 starters , he didnt say good starters , or he had his fingers crossed , you know its something like that ....we couldnt compete dollar wise , the market didnt justify those number of years we made an offer we tried dont know what went wrong ....same ole same ole

How old are you???:go:

johnnydakota
11-08-2012, 01:43 PM
forget shields , marcum , grienke haren ...kevins will be here ,im sure corriea and slowey after all terry lyan said 3 starters , he didnt say good starters , or he had his fingers crossed , you know its something like that ....we couldnt compete dollar wise , the market didnt justify those number of years we made an offer we tried dont know what went wrong ....same ole same ole

How old are you???:go:
50 why?