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View Full Version : Should Twins Be Willing To Part With A Draft Pick For A Free Agent?



John Bonnes
11-02-2012, 05:24 PM
Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/cardinals-make-kyle-lohse-qualifying-offer.html). It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

johnnydakota
11-02-2012, 05:57 PM
Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/cardinals-make-kyle-lohse-qualifying-offer.html). It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.
haren is off the market is now a chicago cub

johnnydakota
11-02-2012, 06:03 PM
Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/cardinals-make-kyle-lohse-qualifying-offer.html). It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.
haren is off the market is now a chicago cub

i can see tomarrows mlb rumors , the minnesota twins were in on haren heavy till the angels wouldnt pick up all of dans 2013 salary and throw in trout for nick blackburn , terry will be quoted as saying he cant understand why he couldnt make the deal? but hey kevin corriea and liriano are still out there

Thrylos
11-02-2012, 06:06 PM
I think that the Twins are better of to try to get good pitchers through trades. The free agent market is overpriced esp. with the loss of draft picks

kab21
11-02-2012, 06:56 PM
Dempster is a bad example since he was traded midseason.

If the pitcher is worth multiple years and 10+M/yr then he's worth a second round pick.

mike wants wins
11-02-2012, 10:39 PM
What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

Top Gun
11-02-2012, 10:53 PM
Haren is a free agent.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
11-02-2012, 11:04 PM
Certainly not.

Seth Stohs
11-02-2012, 11:04 PM
Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.

johnnydakota
11-02-2012, 11:15 PM
Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.
grienke was given a offer?

Shane Wahl
11-02-2012, 11:22 PM
Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/cardinals-make-kyle-lohse-qualifying-offer.html). It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick.

Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

I would say yes but only if there was some other trade of Span or Morneau or someone that brought back at least one good+ prospect back. In a vacuum? No.

JP3700
11-02-2012, 11:23 PM
Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.
grienke was given a offer?

No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

kab21
11-02-2012, 11:39 PM
No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

I'm surprised that neither Marcum and Jackson got offers (possibly a few others). Greinke, Dempster and Sanchez were traded during the season so they don't qualify. I think Kuroda almost to go back to the Yankees due to the offer since it doesn't make sense to part with a 1st rd pick (the best 20 teams) to sign him.

Rick Blaine
11-03-2012, 06:51 AM
I think that the Twins are better of to try to get good pitchers through trades. The free agent market is overpriced esp. with the loss of draft picks

My thoughts exactly...

Paul Pleiss
11-03-2012, 07:39 AM
I don't think the Twins will be competing for a WS championship in the next 2 seasons, so I think the smart move is to say no to the high dollar free agents that would cost a draft pick in return. Play for the long haul, and when (hopefully) our propspects in the mid-low levels of the system start to perform, then you go out and add a piece here or there and pay the price, be in draft picks or prospects, to put the team in contention for a WS title.

-Paul
----------------------------
Follow me, @BaseballPirate (http://www.twitter.com/#baseballpirate), on Twitter
www.PuckettsPond.com (http://www.PuckettsPond.com)

gunnarthor
11-03-2012, 07:56 AM
What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla.

Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him.

John Bonnes
11-03-2012, 11:10 AM
Well, I'm a little slow on the new CBA rules, obviously. I didn't realize that midseason trades could not get a qualifying offer. That's an interesing twist. I can see an imminent free agent with a no-trade clause waiving it so he doesn't get a qualifying offer in his offseason. I wouldn't be shocked if that's why Dempster ultimately agreed to a trade.

Seth is right. This doesn't really affect the Twins this year. That's really good news.

diehardtwinsfan
11-03-2012, 02:14 PM
What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

The odds of a second round pick making it are far higher than you'd think. A good class will net you 2 or 3 decent major leaguers, and most of those guys will come from the top 5 picks, so I wouldn't throw one away lightly. I do think that if the Twins were a player or two away from a realistic shot at the series, then yes, by all means sacrifice one. But this team has some significant rebuilding and will need a decent dose of luck to make the playoffs next year, so no, I wouldn't give away a 2nd rounder for that.

Fire Dan Gladden
11-03-2012, 03:04 PM
Considering the Twins threw away a draft pick for Capps, nothing would surprise me. That being said, I would find it hard to believe the Twins would give up that high of a pick for Lohse or Swisher (nobody else is really up their alley cost or position wise).

jorgenswest
11-03-2012, 03:39 PM
What are the odds a 2nd round pick ever contributes? People way over rate the unknowns relative to the knowns

Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla.

Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him.

Of 56 picks, 6 have a career WAR over 10. Most recent picks still have a lot of time to get there. Based on Twins picks, I would think it is less than a 25% chance that a second round pick will make a significant contribution. Complete list at

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&

Bark's Lounge
11-03-2012, 04:59 PM
I don't think the Twins will be competing for a WS championship in the next 2 seasons, so I think the smart move is to say no to the high dollar free agents that would cost a draft pick in return. Play for the long haul, and when (hopefully) our propspects in the mid-low levels of the system start to perform, then you go out and add a piece here or there and pay the price, be in draft picks or prospects, to put the team in contention for a WS title.

-Paul
----------------------------
Follow me, @BaseballPirate (http://www.twitter.com/#baseballpirate), on Twitter
www.PuckettsPond.com (http://www.PuckettsPond.com)

Bark's Lounge endorses this message.

mike wants wins
11-03-2012, 05:11 PM
So, 3 more years of sucking?

johnnydakota
11-03-2012, 05:20 PM
Players who were offered Qualifying Offers:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Michael Bourn
OF Nick Swisher
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RH RP Rafael Soriano
RHP Kyle Lohse
OF BJ Upton
1B Adam Laroche

I believe that is it, so I would say no, I wouldn't give up a pick for any of them.
grienke was given a offer?

No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.
thanks i had forgotten the entire year rule

johnnydakota
11-03-2012, 05:25 PM
So, 3 more years of sucking?

depends on who takes over for the 3 stooges and when ...could be another 70s decade for us ,if jipppy pohlad doesnt cut bait and start fishin

TheLeviathan
11-03-2012, 05:52 PM
So, 3 more years of sucking?

Tossing tons of money into an overpriced market and giving away high draft picks sounds like a good recipe to guarantee you suck down the line for only a marginal shot at being ok next year. This is not how you build a strong organization.

70charger
11-03-2012, 06:43 PM
So, 3 more years of sucking?

depends on who takes over for the 3 stooges and when ...could be another 70s decade for us ,if jipppy pohlad doesnt cut bait and start fishin

You're like a broken record. You're like Peter Griffin playing "Surfin' Bird." Just shut up with that schtick already.

And by the way, I think Paul Pleiss is right. We're not contending very soon, so stay away from the high-dollar guys, start winning a bit more each year, and build from your farm system up.

mike wants wins
11-05-2012, 10:34 AM
So you are basically saying, " suck for 2 to 3 more years". That is the effect of not signing free agents for the going rate and not trading for guys, isn't it? They have no pitching. It isn't even that they have bad pitching, I am not sure they even have 5 starters on the 40 man roster. If that is your plan, you have to deal every veteran, right?

Winston Smith
11-05-2012, 01:29 PM
What's the point they aren't going to sign any of those guys anyway!