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View Full Version : Article: Shaun Marcum could be a fit for the Twins



Parker Hageman
10-24-2012, 12:10 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1115-Shawn-Marcum-could-be-a-fit-for-the-Twins

Shane Wahl
10-24-2012, 12:25 AM
I *heart* Parker.

Shane Wahl
10-24-2012, 12:38 AM
This reminds me of your analysis of Willingham last year. Marcum is a pitcher who might fit very well in this ballpark and somehow will be fairly cheap.

Am I to believe that the Twins could baseline Baker and Marcum for a combined amount under $10 million for one year!? Let roll the damn incentives up to $20 million! If they perform great, $20 million would be worth it. If not,$10 or so is not killing the team for one year.

Land Of 10,000 Beasts
10-24-2012, 01:24 AM
According to Ryan, you aren't getting a pitcher unless it's a multi-year deal. Would Marcum be an exception to that?

JP3700
10-24-2012, 02:14 AM
I would be happy with anything between 1-3 years for Marcum. Obviously 1 is low risk for the ball club, but 2-3 would control his cost in case he stays healthy and outperforms his contract like Willingham did this year.

Top Gun
10-24-2012, 07:20 AM
Marcum will not save the Twins, he is nottin more than what we got.

Brock Beauchamp
10-24-2012, 07:41 AM
Marcum will not save the Twins, he is nottin more than what we got.

True. Marcum does have two arms, two legs, and is capable of throwing a baseball from a mound.

Past that, there aren't many similarities between him and the crap the Twins rolled out in the #2-5 spots in the rotation.

Kyle Lobner
10-24-2012, 08:09 AM
FYI - It's Shaun, not Shawn.

Ex-Iowegian
10-24-2012, 08:58 AM
So maybe a Pavano lookalike (when at his best - think 2010) or a touch better, if only because of some consistency. Not a true number 1, but mid to top of the rotation guy. 60% wins, 3.7+/- era and 200 innings. That would be better than almost all of what was run out there last year.

SpiritofVodkaDave
10-24-2012, 09:38 AM
According to Ryan, you aren't getting a pitcher unless it's a multi-year deal. Would Marcum be an exception to that?
I'd give a guy like Marcum two years with a team option for the third.

Boom Boom
10-24-2012, 10:04 AM
Did I hear Bruce Chen?

Maybe the Twins could work out a trade with the Royals for Chen. He's only under contract through 2013 for 4.5 million.

iastfan112
10-24-2012, 11:01 AM
He's not my top choice by any means. Fastball velocity could get even more scary as he ages.

Jim Crikket
10-24-2012, 11:48 AM
If Marcum is one of 2-3 solid additions to the rotation, I'd be OK with that. If he's THE new top man of the Twins 2013 rotation, not so OK with it.

greengoblinrulz
10-24-2012, 11:52 AM
I think Marcum is gonna have 5-10 teams chasing him as a 1-2 yr cheap option & that will drive up his price to 3yrs & put him 'just' out of the Twins range (which they seem to do often)

PseudoSABR
10-24-2012, 01:50 PM
Marcum would be a great addition. He'd be the best pitcher we've signed in FA since Kenny Rogers.

Danchat
10-24-2012, 03:27 PM
Marcum would be a nice addition. If there's competition for him, the Twins are unlikely to get him, however.
Something tells me he gets away.

Jim Crikket
10-24-2012, 04:14 PM
There's bound to be competition for pretty much anyone of value, which means you may have to roll the dice and go a little high for someone. I'd like to have Marcum, but I'm not sure he'd be the guy I would overspend for.

Kwak
10-24-2012, 05:23 PM
Seriously, don't the Twins have a half dozen Marcums in the organization already? There seems to be no need to commit years to a pitcher that doesn't represent a meaningful change for the future? It's better to commit to one excellent pitcher than two "decent" veterans.

kab21
10-24-2012, 08:08 PM
Seriously, don't the Twins have a half dozen Marcums in the organization already? There seems to be no need to commit years to a pitcher that doesn't represent a meaningful change for the future? It's better to commit to one excellent pitcher than two "decent" veterans.

It's clear that you have no idea how good marcum is. The Twins have ZERO pitchers as good as Marcum. the concern is that he'll be injured and not pitch at all.

ERA's the last five years
3.39
TJ
3.64
3.54
3.70

TheLeviathan
10-24-2012, 09:27 PM
Yeah I've always been a big fan of Marcum. I'd be content with him as the best addition to this staff, primarily because I think he may be the best pitcher available this offseason if he stays healthy. Yes, that means I think he may be better than Grienke if he can stay on the mound.

Riverbrian
10-24-2012, 10:17 PM
Lot of talk about it being a thin market for pitching... That may be true but it doesn't matter because nearly every FA pitcher is better than what we currently have for the two slot.

Marcum would be a solid signing.

zchrz
10-25-2012, 12:32 AM
Marcum, Baker, and a close to ready prospect return for someone (probably Span) and it would be a nice TR money saving overhaul of the starting staff and there would still be money to spend on an infielder or 2.

mike wants wins
10-25-2012, 09:27 AM
What infielder? Go get pitching. Spend some money and personnel.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
10-25-2012, 11:52 AM
I wouldn't mind giving Marcum 3-4 years. Think he's a solid #2.

LaBombo
10-25-2012, 01:53 PM
Parker, you made a good case for Marcum, but you omitted the last sentence of the interview with him...

"The Kansas City, Mo., native added that he has no preference with the geographic location of a franchise or if it's an American League or National League squad, but wherever he ends up signing, he wants there to be a realistic chance at making the playoffs."

Which pretty much rules out the Twins. On the other hand, rationalization can be a powerful force when fueled by greed.

But if Marcum rules out the Twins for being non-competitors in 2013, we'll have another high water mark of Twins futility, since Marcum apparently sees an 89 loss team that's gone 20 years without a postseason appearance as having a better shot at the playoffs.

beckmt
10-25-2012, 03:25 PM
Marcum would be a great addition for the twins. Hope they can do it. He is #1 on my list of affordable pitchers and I believe will give the Twins better than what they have now

johnnydakota
10-25-2012, 04:16 PM
Seriously, don't the Twins have a half dozen Marcums in the organization already? There seems to be no need to commit years to a pitcher that doesn't represent a meaningful change for the future? It's better to commit to one excellent pitcher than two "decent" veterans.
makes to much sence...

johnnydakota
10-27-2012, 02:32 PM
what would it take to get ian kennedy from arizon? supposedly they are thinking of moving him and an outfielder,add in shields and we have the makings of a pretty good staff

johnnydakota
10-28-2012, 04:25 PM
[QUOTE=Top Gun;59558]Marcum will not save the Twins, he is nottin more than what we got.

True. Marcum does have two arms, two legs, and is capable of throwing a baseball from a mound.

Past that, there aren't many similarities between him and the crap the Twins rolled out in the #2-5 spots in the rotation.[/only in 1 of his 7 year career, has he pitched more then 200 innings,
he also has had elbow problems this past season .....

the pitcher we need is annibal sanchez and maybe adding chavez at 3b if we end up trading willingham or morneau

Thrylos
10-28-2012, 04:56 PM
If Marcum is one of 2-3 solid additions to the rotation, I'd be OK with that. If he's THE new top man of the Twins 2013 rotation, not so OK with it.

+1

These days Marcum might be a good #3-4 pitcher. Had only one season in the AL with an xFIP under 4. This is Diamond territory.

kab21
10-28-2012, 06:09 PM
If Marcum is one of 2-3 solid additions to the rotation, I'd be OK with that. If he's THE new top man of the Twins 2013 rotation, not so OK with it.

+1

These days Marcum might be a good #3-4 pitcher. Had only one season in the AL with an xFIP under 4. This is Diamond territory.

A completely laughable misuse of stats.

xFIP is far from a perfect stat. He has shown over his career (900+ innings) that he can beat xFIP by 0.37 pts. That's a pretty significant adjustment. Some pitchers can do this and some cannot.

How easily you dismiss NL innings is ridiculous. He's put up a 3.60 ERA over his last 700 innings which were equally split between the AL (East) and the NL. That's definitely not a true #1 but that's far better than I would predict for Diamond next season.

Thrylos
10-28-2012, 06:25 PM
If Marcum is one of 2-3 solid additions to the rotation, I'd be OK with that. If he's THE new top man of the Twins 2013 rotation, not so OK with it.

+1

These days Marcum might be a good #3-4 pitcher. Had only one season in the AL with an xFIP under 4. This is Diamond territory.

A completely laughable misuse of stats.

xFIP is far from a perfect stat. He has shown over his career (900+ innings) that he can beat xFIP by 0.37 pts. That's a pretty significant adjustment. Some pitchers can do this and some cannot.

How easily you dismiss NL innings is ridiculous. He's put up a 3.60 ERA over his last 700 innings which were equally split between the AL (East) and the NL. That's definitely not a true #1 but that's far better than I would predict for Diamond next season.

so xFIP is a flawed "stat" and ERA is not?
alrighty....

Brandon
10-28-2012, 07:01 PM
Marcum = Cole Devries with more experience and a little better secondary pitches.

I have the Twins getting Ervin Santana or Edwin Jackson, Baker and a SP from the Braves for Span. Thats 1 pitcher in the 9-12 million range, 1 in the 3-5 million range, and one salary swap for another if its Tommy Hanson. I got that from the Offseason handbook and thats the most even trade proposal I have ever seen that helps both teams. Its a crime if it doesn't get done. Diamond and Gibson are cheap and Devires and Dedunno and Hendricks are right there waiting Rochester could have a pretty good staff next year.

kab21
10-28-2012, 07:26 PM
so xFIP is a flawed "stat" and ERA is not?
alrighty....

This is an argument that I have not made. I use xFIP a lot and I think it's one of the best stats out there.

But it's not perfect either. Over large sample sizes (like careers) ERA tends to be a pretty good stat. Over small sample sizes (like single seasons) ERA fluctuates like crazy. Career ERA also needs to be adjusted for great defensive teams (neither MIL or TOR), significant park effects (neither Miller or Rogers) or league effects (equal split between AL and NL).

kab21
10-28-2012, 07:29 PM
Marcum = Cole Devries with more experience and a little better secondary pitches.


One of these has had a very good career while one of these looks like a AAAA pitcher. Despite Marcum's lack of velocity he has found ways to K MLB batters which is something that Devries has never done at any level.

Brock Beauchamp
10-28-2012, 07:38 PM
so xFIP is a flawed "stat" and ERA is not?
alrighty....

This is an argument that I have not made. I use xFIP a lot and I think it's one of the best stats out there.

But it's not perfect either. Over large sample sizes (like careers) ERA tends to be a pretty good stat. Over small sample sizes (like single seasons) ERA fluctuates like crazy. Career ERA also needs to be adjusted for great defensive teams (neither MIL or TOR), significant park effects (neither Miller or Rogers) or league effects (equal split between AL and NL).

And that's why we have ERA+. It's a solid indicator of a pitcher's value at a glance.

FWIW, Greinke has a career ERA+ of 114 to Marcum's 112.

Considering how Marcum will probably command about half the money of Greinke, I think he's a fine solution for the Twins' pitching woes. Maybe not my first choice but not that far down the list, either.

xFIP is a useful stat but when a guy spends his entire career over-performing an advanced metric (and Marcum has done just that with FIP/xFIP), you have to re-apply logic to that metric and consider the possibility that it may not be an accurate representation of every player in baseball.

Willihammer
10-28-2012, 08:41 PM
Marcum's.gets weak contact that's consistent with his ability to miss bats entirely. Indeed he has a .270 BABIP, and 6.5 Fielding Dependent Wins which aren't included in his FIP derived WAR.

Marcum is also a fly ball pitcher whose home has been Toronto and Milwaukee. Put him into a more neutral park and his HR/FB should drop accordingly and improve his ERA even further.

That is, assuming his shoulder soreness is nothing to worry about.