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Seth Stohs
10-23-2012, 10:31 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1114-Don-t-forget-Dozier

Boom Boom
10-23-2012, 11:06 AM
After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.

nick5253
10-23-2012, 11:21 AM
I seem to be in the minority, but I am fine with Florimon at short. I think either Span or Revere is going to be moved this offseason, so that will open a spot for another power guy in RF so the Twins would really only have the 8/9 spots in the lineup as a weekness which could be reserved for the middle infielders. And given the pitching staff, I would trot out the best middle infielders possible and sacrifice offense.

This would be my lineup (assuming a Span trade):
Revere (CF), Mauer (C), Willingham (LF), Morneau (1B), Doumit (DH), Parmelee (RF), Plouffe (3B), Dozier (2B), Florimon (SS)

Or if Carroll is your guy at 2nd base, he could hit 2nd or 8th.

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 11:47 AM
After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.

Fangraphs lists Dozier's range at .796. That puts him between Aybar and Reyes. Florimon at .757.

Boom Boom
10-23-2012, 12:02 PM
After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.

Fangraphs lists Dozier's range at .796. That puts him between Aybar and Reyes. Florimon at .757.

Fangraphs lists lots of things, including numbers that are meaningless or can be misleading.

Dozier's UZR was -1.2 and Florimon's was 1.4.

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 12:14 PM
Fangraphs lists lots of things, including numbers that are meaningless or can be misleading.

Dozier's UZR was -1.2 and Florimon's was 1.4.

Yeah, I thought we were talking range...but yeah, I get that a lot of people throw out stats as meaningless when they don't support their views.

In any event, we also have Florimon who averaged 40+ errors per 162 games in the minors...and jumped right on board with making errors when he was brought up. I don't really judge people on errors or fielding percentage, but that's still a huge amount. Couple that with poor range, and I doubt he's good enough to be a major league starting shortstop.

Willihammer
10-23-2012, 12:50 PM
RZR stands for revised zone rating. It is the percentage of balls hit into a player's zone that are turned into outs. Dozier's was .796 (n 207), Florimon's was .757 (n 111), Carroll's was .810 (n 105) last year (at SS).

Dozier, Florimon, and Carroll made 39, 29 and 18 plays out of their zone, respectively (at SS). For comparison, JJ Hardy made a mlb-high 109 OOZ plays last year compared to 409 balls hit into his zone. That was a career high for him. But Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260, although Hardy has been much better at converting balls in zone into outs.

Small sample sizes for Dozier and Flormon, maybe meaningless. If not meaningless, then Flormin would seem to be slightly rangier. Possibly a Starlin Castro type defender.

If only he could hit like Castro.

DAM DC Twins Fans
10-23-2012, 01:26 PM
key words in above comment--small sample sizes....

lets give Dozier and Florimon the opportunity to play middle IF at spring training. If one stands out (or maybe both) go with them next season with Carroll as a backup. I admit to being a big Dozier fan--I think he can be a decent MLB SS...maybe Florimon too...but give them a shot...look at how many shots Alexei has had.

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 01:29 PM
'Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260'

Plays outside of zone (OOZ) aren't including in the RZR at all...it's to be looked at separately as part of the overall defensive measure. Florimon had 111 balls hit into his zone. He made 84 plays, but those plays were made on ball in zone (BIZ). That gives you the .757 RZR.

His 29 plays OOZ aren't included in the 84 plays. It's a separate issue. OOZ is purposely excluded. So that 29 plays made OOZ isn't part of the 84 plays and therefore isn't a percentage of overall plays he made in his zone.

Boom Boom
10-23-2012, 01:34 PM
I don't think either Dozier or Florimon has played enough for us to be able to look at their defensive metrics and be convinced that they are or aren't good defenders.

I think that putting Dozier at 2B would give him a somewhat better chance at being successful, at least defensively. But he still has to hit.

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 01:47 PM
key words in above comment--small sample sizes....

lets give Dozier and Florimon the opportunity to play middle IF at spring training. If one stands out (or maybe both) go with them next season with Carroll as a backup. I admit to being a big Dozier fan--I think he can be a decent MLB SS...maybe Florimon too...but give them a shot...look at how many shots Alexei has had.

It would be nice if, for once, we actually had a spring training battle where the winner was labeled the starter...

Willihammer
10-23-2012, 01:47 PM
Plays outside of zone (OOZ) aren't including in the RZR at all...it's to be looked at separately as part of the overall defensive measure. Florimon had 111 balls hit into his zone. He made 84 plays, but those plays were made on ball in zone (BIZ). That gives you the .757 RZR.

Yes but the absolute value OOZ doesn't provide much context. I debated using Innings instead of BIZ but figured that would be less meaningfull to most people.

Unfortunately there's no stat OOZ opportunities.

Winston Smith
10-23-2012, 02:44 PM
If the Rangers lose Hamilton and need a CF would a Span for Andrus trade work?

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 02:46 PM
I keep hearing Andrus' name brought up. Is he on the trading block and I've missed it?

70charger
10-23-2012, 04:26 PM
I keep hearing Andrus' name brought up. Is he on the trading block and I've missed it?

He's got Jurickson Profar breathing down his neck.

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 04:33 PM
and that's good, they have depth, but is there any word, they're going to move Andrus out. Profar will be 20 next season?

I mean, heck, I'd like to get him...just not sure Texas would trade him...at least not yet.

johnnydakota
10-23-2012, 04:36 PM
profar and olt , the 2 who are being eyed as trade bait

Jack Torse
10-23-2012, 04:41 PM
Most rookies, especially shortstops, struggle badly when forced to play in the majors. Both offensively and defensively. It wasn't all bad either in 2012. It's not like the Twins are going to compete next season so I have no problems with playing Dozier and I think they should. I'm shocked by reading his 2011 minor league totals. Actually those numbers are absolutely outstanding and I'm suprised he wasn't a bigger prospect based on them alone. That's better than anything Hicks or as good as anything Arcia has done and people in these parts are almost universally high on them. Very good article Seth.

diehardtwinsfan
10-23-2012, 06:48 PM
I wouldn't give up on Dozier just yet. Not sure I'd plan on him either. I think I'd sign Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew to 1 year prove it contracts and let Brian start in AAA.

twinswon1991
10-23-2012, 07:47 PM
If the Rangers lose Hamilton and need a CF would a Span for Andrus trade work?

If you throw in Sano and Rosario with Span you might be able to get Andrus. Otherwise, the best you will get for Span is a single A pitcher with upside. Too many good CF on the market and Span isn't an upgrade for most teams over their incumbant.

righty8383
10-23-2012, 07:57 PM
If you throw in Sano and Rosario with Span you might be able to get Andrus. Otherwise, the best you will get for Span is a single A pitcher with upside. Too many good CF on the market and Span isn't an upgrade for most teams over their incumbant.

Did you really just suggest it would take Sano Rosario and Span to get Andrus?:confused:

Willihammer
10-23-2012, 08:24 PM
I assume the Rangers will bring back Murphy to play CF. He is fine. What they seem to want is more starting pitching.

They are a little backlogged at 1B and 3B with Beltre, Young, Moreland, and Olt. They will likely not make a qualifying offer to Napoli.

I really think Napoli would be a perfect fit for the Twins.

jorgenswest
10-23-2012, 09:53 PM
I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender.

He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.

twinscowboysbulls
10-23-2012, 09:59 PM
I think a lot of people are forgetting how important this lasik surgery is. Dozier will probably automatically turn into a .330/.420 type hitter, I mean look at the drastic impact it had on Span when he got it!!!!

ThePuck
10-23-2012, 10:54 PM
I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender.

He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.

Twins brass sure touted him as such...did so in the stories on the Twins site...and so did the announcers...not sure what they were seeing...was it his lack of range or his huge amount of errors that made them scream, WOW...he's a top flight defender

Willihammer
10-24-2012, 12:30 PM
The way I read RZR, is the efficiency a defender converts into outs those balls he should convert into outs, as define by baseballinfosolutions' "zone."

It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.

So, given these assumptions, I calculated out of zone plays made per inning. These are your 2012 leaders at SS (min 300 innings).

http://i.imgur.com/qNv3J.png


I comped to Castro not because Castro's an elite defender (he's average), but he has good range as defined by this measure, yet is below average at fielding in-range balls.

It is mostly semantics, outs are outs. I am only quibbling about the argument that Florimon has limited range, because based on what little data we have, I think the opposite is true.

ThePuck
10-24-2012, 12:38 PM
'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone.'

I don't think it's a given at all, and if you look at innings played, BIZ and Plays on Fangraphs, it shows that isn't true. In any event, the amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) is used to calculate their RZR, along with the amount plays made in the zone. The zone for shortstop is set for everyone and the amount of balls that go into that zone is used in the calculation along with the amount of the balls in the zone the player converted to outs.

' Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.''

I don't see how this could be assumed either.

In any event, RZR measures the range. OOZ measure the amount of balls fielded outside of the position's set range. ZR used to have RZR and OOZ combined, but they felt it wasn't giving us accurate info, so it divided the two. You need to take a look at both to get a good view on the overall skill of the defender, but range is RZR.

Your 'given' and assumption seems to suggest you wanna discount RZR all together as all the numbers needed to calculate it will equal out if you project out far enough. Seems you just want to use OOZ as the measure of range, which is cool if that's what you wanna do...but that's not the stat for normal range of the player.

And if you wanna just go by what you see, I didn't see exceptional range by any means. He came in on balls well, but his side to side was nothing special

Willihammer
10-24-2012, 01:06 PM
'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.'

I don't think we can say the above is true, or everyone would have the same amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) used to calculate their RZR.

That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings.

2557

I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data.

Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.

ThePuck
10-24-2012, 01:16 PM
'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.'

I don't think we can say the above is true, or everyone would have the same amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) used to calculate their RZR.

That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings.

2557

I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data.

Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.

Ramirez played 142 MORE innings than Escobar, but they had the same amount of Balls in Zone. Exactly the same amount. Barmes had one less ball in zone than Ramirez and Escobar, in almost 100 LESS innings than Escobar. So you have 3 defenders there, and Barmes had 1 less ball in zone than Ramirez even though he played in 233 less innings.

Additionally, Reyes had one more Ball in Zone than Ramirez and Escobar, but he played in 18 more innings than Ramirez, 160 more than Escobar and 251 more than Barmes. Yet, Reyes had less plays made than Ramirez, Escobar AND Barmes.

But you say 'all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone' That's not what the info above says. If it was true, everyone would have the same RZR...since that's an average.

Edited for typos...I'm a horrible typist

Willihammer
10-24-2012, 01:35 PM
Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

The principle is sound though.

ThePuck
10-24-2012, 01:45 PM
Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

The principle is sound though.

I appreciate the effort you put into your given, but the info I showed above kind of hurts that given. And the guys I used finished 3-6 in innings played at shortstop, so it's a strong sample size.

In any event, if your given was true...that if spread out far enough everyone would have the same amount of balls in zone and the same of plays made on them....then their RZRs would be the same...since RZR is the average. If your given was true, they wouldn't even use the RZR, it'd be meaningless.

Montecore
10-24-2012, 01:59 PM
Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

The principle is sound though.

I appreciate the effort you put into your given, but the info I showed above kind of hurts that given. And the guys I used finished 3-6 in innings played at shortstop, so it's a strong sample size.

In any event, if your given was true...that if spread out far enough everyone would have the same amount of balls in zone and the same of plays made on them....then their Rherwould be the same...since RZR is the average. If your given was true, they wouldn't even use the RZR, it'd be meaningless.

They're likely to lose 90 plus again. There's gotta be somebody other than Dozier or Florimon.

Willihammer
10-24-2012, 02:03 PM
that if spread out far enough everyone would have the same amount of balls in zone and the same of plays made on them

That is not the assumption. The assumption is only the first part, that BIZ will normalize over a large enough sample, not that all defenders would make the same number of plays.

3 years of full time duty is an often sited figure for when defensive metrics start to become meaningful. So a .757 RZR after two months of play is no more an indication that his range is weak, than his high proportion of OOZ plays is an indication that his range is actually strong. That is all the point I'm making.

ThePuck
10-24-2012, 02:21 PM
That is not the assumption. The assumption is only the first part, that BIZ will normalize over a large enough sample, not that all defenders would make the same number of plays.



But you wrote: 'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone'

I interpreted 'field' as making plays. As in he fielded the ball. Was that a bad interpretation?

Willihammer
10-24-2012, 02:23 PM
I apologize for the confusion. I meant field in the sense that "Jr fielded 10 questions, and answered 7 of them."

ThePuck
10-24-2012, 02:35 PM
I apologize for the confusion. I meant field in the sense that "Jr fielded 10 questions, and answered 7 of them."

Ah...well that kind of negates the whole debate doesn't it :-)

Fire Dan Gladden
10-24-2012, 08:01 PM
Dozier who?

Does anybody really think he has a chance to make the roster out of ST given he wasn't even called back up in September?

ThePuck
10-24-2012, 08:06 PM
Dozier who?

Does anybody really think he has a chance to make the roster out of ST given he wasn't even called back up in September?

I hope so