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View Full Version : Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'



greengoblinrulz
10-14-2012, 02:19 PM
TRyan said this on 1500ESPN this morning but will 'monitor the big names'. No surprise here, so who are the affordable pitchers that the Twins type thinking will go after.

Pitt's FA Kevin Correia WILL be one they will at least pursue
32 yr old RH made 3m last yr
Over last 4 yrs (w/SD & Pitt each 2yrs)
46W (Twins value the old style stats) 43L 120gms 113starts
668IP (ave 168) 697hits 4.51 NL ERA 423k(5.7/9) 213bb(2.9/9) 90.5mph FB... -.0.7 3 yr WAR
one all star appearance in 2011
Holds runners well 31/53 successful (41.5% caught stealing)
Twins type of guy......yaaaaayyyyy!!!!!
Who else

laugh all ya want but they will also target Kevin Millwood as this yrs Marquis, Ortiz, Hernandez, Ponson type.
The soon to be 38yr old played for a million last yr in SEA.
28 starts in SEA in 12'
6W 12L 161IP 168hits 4.25ERA 107K (6k/9) 56bb (3.1bb/9) 1.39whip
His splits were even outside of Safeco.....4.34ERA on road
His 90.2mph fastaball is right at his 90.7 career mark.
He will definately help sell some season tix but will be a guy they target

DId say the 'bullpen needs too add some people too', so at least they have noticed that also!! Hello resigning Matt Capps

greengoblinrulz
10-14-2012, 03:38 PM
My other 'sleeper' pitcher who MN will look at is another PITT hurler who was released, Erik Bedard.
On the surface, he didnt seem to have that bad a year
24starts 7W 14L 5.01ERA 125.2IP 129hits (.263BAA) 118K (8.5k/9) 56bb (4bb/9)

He was a victim of some horrible luck & only a few bad games as I looked at his game logs.
April
1W 4L in 5 starts 2.48ERA (no more than 2ER in any start...PITT scored 3runs in 4 losses) 29IP 29hits 26k 12bb
May
2W 1L in 5 starts 3.91ERA (one start was 1IP due to rain delay) 23IP 19h 25k 10bb
June
1W 3L in 5 starts 6.58ERA (one start 6/14 7ER in 3.1IP....4.77ERA in other 4) 26IP 30h 21K 12bb
July
1W 4L in 5 starts 6.49ERA (8er in 4.1IP in last start of month....4.50ERA in other 4) 26.1IP 29h 28k 13bb
AUG
2W 2L in 4 starts 5.91ERA (first 2 starts 12IP 7h 3er 11K 4bb....last 2 9.1IP 15h 11er 7k 5bb)

20 starts 108.2IP 99h 44er 3.64ERA 103K 47bb
4 bad starts 17IP 30h 26er 13.76ERA 15k 9bb

His 89.4mph fastball was down from 11's 90.8 but he kept up a great K rate with his curveball
He made 4.5m last yr but after bein released Aug 28, could be a nice bargain which is what Terry Ryan is looking for

Shane Wahl
10-14-2012, 03:54 PM
Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

greengoblinrulz
10-14-2012, 04:02 PM
Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.
Affordable from Terry Ryan (at least to me....based on the teams history) means players who'll play for a 1 year deal, maybe 2 under the right circumstances
Marcum/Jackson are gonna want a 3 yr deal minumum.....Twins have NEVER signed a FA pitcher with that many years & have NEVER traded for a pitcher with that many years remaining (not counting pre-FA pitchers).
They are the cheapest team in baseball that has a 90m+ payroll.....this will continue this year.
As good as FA went last offseason, nobody got a big deal. They went cheap, but it worked out for the most part

TheLeviathan
10-14-2012, 04:25 PM
Affordable, to me, means they pay what they feel they're worth. Which is bad news if you think they'll sign a top-end pitcher - they always get overpayed.

one_eyed_jack
10-14-2012, 06:49 PM
I don't read much into soundbites, especially when they're basically non-statements like this.

To the extent he's saying anything here, it's only that he's not going to pay ace money for a #3 starter.

beckmt
10-14-2012, 07:21 PM
Twins will not overpay for pitching. That is why they will end up trading if the deal is right. Problem is going to be everyone is going to overvalue their major league ready pitching, because pitching is a hard item to find. Depends on whether the Twins can find trade partners early, because most of the pitching will be bought in the first two weeks of FA action and many big market teams will be looking.TR has his work cut out for him

John Bonnes
10-14-2012, 07:47 PM
The point that Ryan likely only wants 1-year deals is a good one. That seems to be his MO. Although, given how depleted the organization is with pitching, it isn't clear that a multi-year deal would be the worst idea.

I think in the GM Handbook, we have Marcum likely accepting a one-year deal. His health is a big question mark, so I could see him seeking out a make good deal. It might be expensive, but I can't see anyone ponying up really big bucks for him in a multi-year deal this year.

old nurse
10-14-2012, 08:18 PM
I the GM Handbook.

Ah yes, there is where we will find the many answers for who are affordable pitchers

Thrylos
10-14-2012, 08:23 PM
penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

SpantheMan
10-14-2012, 11:35 PM
Another reason the twins probably won't sign any big money FA's: Josh Willingham was the biggest FA contract they ever inked. (obviously not including extending their own).

SpantheMan
10-14-2012, 11:36 PM
My other 'sleeper' pitcher who MN will look at is another PITT hurler who was released, Erik Bedard.
On the surface, he didnt seem to have that bad a year
24starts 7W 14L 5.01ERA 125.2IP 129hits (.263BAA) 118K (8.5k/9) 56bb (4bb/9)

He was a victim of some horrible luck & only a few bad games as I looked at his game logs.
April
1W 4L in 5 starts 2.48ERA (no more than 2ER in any start...PITT scored 3runs in 4 losses) 29IP 29hits 26k 12bb
May
2W 1L in 5 starts 3.91ERA (one start was 1IP due to rain delay) 23IP 19h 25k 10bb
June
1W 3L in 5 starts 6.58ERA (one start 6/14 7ER in 3.1IP....4.77ERA in other 4) 26IP 30h 21K 12bb
July
1W 4L in 5 starts 6.49ERA (8er in 4.1IP in last start of month....4.50ERA in other 4) 26.1IP 29h 28k 13bb
AUG
2W 2L in 4 starts 5.91ERA (first 2 starts 12IP 7h 3er 11K 4bb....last 2 9.1IP 15h 11er 7k 5bb)

20 starts 108.2IP 99h 44er 3.64ERA 103K 47bb
4 bad starts 17IP 30h 26er 13.76ERA 15k 9bb

His 89.4mph fastball was down from 11's 90.8 but he kept up a great K rate with his curveball
He made 4.5m last yr but after bein released Aug 28, could be a nice bargain which is what Terry Ryan is looking for

Looks like a good pitcher to target but not necessarily a twins type pitcher. Any reason you think the twins will go after him or are you just saying they should?

kab21
10-15-2012, 12:04 AM
penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

penny pinching might make this a 100 loss team.
spending like a crazy man might make this an 85 loss team

Shane Wahl
10-15-2012, 12:48 AM
The point that Ryan likely only wants 1-year deals is a good one. That seems to be his MO. Although, given how depleted the organization is with pitching, it isn't clear that a multi-year deal would be the worst idea.

I think in the GM Handbook, we have Marcum likely accepting a one-year deal. His health is a big question mark, so I could see him seeking out a make good deal. It might be expensive, but I can't see anyone ponying up really big bucks for him in a multi-year deal this year.


That's strange, because he was back at the end of the year and was good again. That would be a BIG improvement if it was a one-year deal.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2012, 07:31 AM
Can we stop using Ryan's track record as an indicator of future moves? The dude had a $40m or lower payroll for many of those years. The early 2000s Metrodome Twins have very, very little to do with the 2013 Target Field Twins.

Ryan didn't have much money last season but he used it pretty smartly to pick up several players that helped the team enormously. There is no reason to expect him to do anything different this offseason when he has more money to play with and acquire players that aren't awful.

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 08:30 AM
They lost over 90 games, not sure who helped the team tremendously. Ryan is cheap, there is no evidence to the contrary. Until he actually does something different, I see no reason to expect something different.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2012, 08:41 AM
They lost over 90 games, not sure who helped the team tremendously. Ryan is cheap, there is no evidence to the contrary. Until he actually does something different, I see no reason to expect something different.

Yes, Ryan is cheap.

But there is a difference between "scraping the bottom of the barrel" and "cheap". Cheap is fine, scraping the barrel is not. Ryan spent his last term as GM scraping the barrel because he had no other choice. Last season, he picked up several guys who were reasonably priced (not necessarily cheap but not expensive either) and most of them worked out very well for the team. Now that he has more money to spend, why do so many think he'll balk at spending a few dollars to pick up a pitcher that isn't awful? If he was open to signing Willingham last offseason, there is no reason to think he won't do the same for a decent pitcher.

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 09:01 AM
Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?

Craig in MN
10-15-2012, 09:44 AM
Another reason the twins probably won't sign any big money FA's: Josh Willingham was the biggest FA contract they ever inked. (obviously not including extending their own).

That is a key point, but it could be a key point for each side. The obvious point is that the Twins don't usually spend much money. The less obvious point is that last year, Terry Ryan was willing to go out of his previous comfort zone to fill a hole that needed filling. He's not going to go nuts, but he knows he needs pitching and he now has a record of going a little further than before (and with great results). I'd be a little surprised if Ryan signed a pitcher to a 3 year, $21-30 million deal, but I wouldn't be shocked.

That said, I expect Ryan will be hoping to sign guys to one year deals with an option/buyout for the next year, or maybe a 2 year deal for the right guy. It's not like the Twins lack of pitching depth is going to magically solve itself in 2014, and odds are the Twins aren't going to be able stockpile enough arms to be favorites in 2013 anyway. If you find a guy you like, try to get him to stick around a few years.

There are a few high-potential guys out there with some question marks that you could probably get on a one year deal with an option. Baker is the obvious one. Brandon McCarthy is a good starter if he's healthy, but isn't going to get a big guarantee. Ervin Santana had enough struggles that the Angels aren't even thinking about picking up his $12 million option. He's still a very good pitcher, and might want a one year deal to re-establish himself (in spacious Target Field). Jorge De La Rosa, Marcum, and a few other guys fit the bill too.

They aren't going to build a rock solid rotation that way, but they'll give themselves a chance. I'd absolutely expect Ryan to have enough money to spend that he's not going to just give out three $3-5 million deals to uninspiring starters and see what happens.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2012, 09:52 AM
Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?

They probably won't. Ryan got a good deal on Willingham. Why are you so adamant that he won't pay market value for a pitcher as he did for Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll last season? Add $6m over three years to Willingham's deal and you're suddenly in the market for a mid-range pitcher (aka. roughly the money Pavano made last season). Ryan showed that he's willing to go after a guy if he thinks the team will get value from the player. He did it last season and there's no reason to think he won't do it again because he has more money this offseason... well, he should have more, anyway.

The only basis you have to assume that Ryan will only pursue $3m pitchers is that he often did so when the Twins' payroll was half what it is today. It's not solid ground on which to stand, as the circumstances are vastly different today than they were in 2004.

greengoblinrulz
10-15-2012, 11:18 AM
Until Ryan signs a FA pitcher to a 2yr deal..or more..he's never done it.
Prove us cynics wrong...Id love to eat crow on this but time will tell

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 11:59 AM
But his budget is not twice as big, more than 40 million is in three players. That leaves only 50 million for the rest of the team. That us the great fallacy in comparing payroll with Oakland, for instance. Also, unlike Oakland, he seems unwilling to sell high on veterans right now. I do not understand the strategy. BTW, I hope you are right and I am wrong.

Boom Boom
10-15-2012, 12:03 PM
Jason Marquis...... Which 2 above average starting pitchers will come here for as little money as Willingham made?

They probably won't. Ryan got a good deal on Willingham. Why are you so adamant that he won't pay market value for a pitcher as he did for Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll last season? Add $6m over three years to Willingham's deal and you're suddenly in the market for a mid-range pitcher (aka. roughly the money Pavano made last season). Ryan showed that he's willing to go after a guy if he thinks the team will get value from the player. He did it last season and there's no reason to think he won't do it again because he has more money this offseason... well, he should have more, anyway.

The only basis you have to assume that Ryan will only pursue $3m pitchers is that he often did so when the Twins' payroll was half what it is today. It's not solid ground on which to stand, as the circumstances are vastly different today than they were in 2004.

He's got to do better than Marquis. I think most Twins fans realized the rotation would be a weakness, and Ryan took the same approach to improving it as he did when the Twins were in the Dome - find a cheap, older veteran on a 1-year deal.

tmerrickkeller
10-15-2012, 01:16 PM
I think there's truth in all that everyone here is saying: What he should do is get a couple of mid-priced free agent starters (Marcum, Blanton) and leave a little money for additional acquisitions. What he will do is wait for the free agent market to set rates for the top-line starters and then wait to see who is left out, and then pick up one or two of those guys for 1-year, or 1-year-plus-option deals, making sound dollar decisions.

He will do this between mid-December and late January, because he doesn't want to wait until spring and have some teams lose a valuable piece (thereby raising the price of the remaining FA starters again). He wants those guys to think they'll be left in the cold and then start the negotiations.

He should look to trade one of the assets (Morneau, Span, minor league outfielder) for additional help, if the market doesn't bring us a couple of starters and the shot at a middle infielder. What he will do is save those tradeable assets and a little room in the budget and treat fans as the team always has - if you show up and if we're playing well, we'll spend a little more money or make a trade to improve the team. If the fans don't show up and we're not playing well, we'll sell off what we can for less than they are worth and try the same formula again next year.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2012, 01:44 PM
He's got to do better than Marquis. I think most Twins fans realized the rotation would be a weakness, and Ryan took the same approach to improving it as he did when the Twins were in the Dome - find a cheap, older veteran on a 1-year deal.

He only took the "old" approach after he had spent most of his money on Willingham and Doumit. I wasn't a fan of the Marquis signing but it's not as if he had a ton of money left over to go get a decent pitcher after spending $10m on those two players. This season should be different, as almost all of the front office's efforts will be focused on shoring up the rotation.

Willihammer
10-15-2012, 01:45 PM
He will do this between mid-December and late January, because he doesn't want to wait until spring and have some teams lose a valuable piece (thereby raising the price of the remaining FA starters again). He wants those guys to think they'll be left in the cold and then start the negotiations.

He should look to trade one of the assets (Morneau, Span, minor league outfielder) for additional help, if the market doesn't bring us a couple of starters and the shot at a middle infielder. What he will do is save those tradeable assets and a little room in the budget and treat fans as the team always has - if you show up and if we're playing well, we'll spend a little more money or make a trade to improve the team. If the fans don't show up and we're not playing well, we'll sell off what we can for less than they are worth and try the same formula again next year.

Well I have already reserved my 20 game season ticket for 2013, but I am the Twins number one fan. If the FO wants to hook your 7/10er on a season package, they should consider fronting cash early and often in the offseason rather than hoping there are enough leftovers to pick up in January to keep the team from falling out of contention in the opening weeks.

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 01:47 PM
Do not sign Capps and Marquis, and you have money. And, they could have spent more money, but chose not to. It is all about choices.

Brock Beauchamp
10-15-2012, 01:55 PM
Do not sign Capps and Marquis, and you have money. And, they could have spent more money, but chose not to. It is all about choices.

Let's not blur the issues. The Pohlads are responsible for the budget. If you have issues with the budget, that's another argument entirely. JR has nothing to do with it (or, perhaps more accurately, he has VERY LITTLE to do with it).

Going into the season, the Twins looked to have a serviceable rotation. Marquis looked like he'd be pretty pedestrian but would post somewhere around a 90 ERA+. Baker looked great in 2011. Pavano looked to be meh but not terrible.

That's 60% of the rotation that completely and utterly collapsed. It was my belief that the rotation should have been a bigger priority last offseason but given the amount of holes in the 2011 squad, it's damned hard to fault JR for prioritizing the offense over the pitching staff.

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 02:03 PM
Given the Orioles success, and their deep pitching, could the Twins get Gausman for Span and random minor league pitcher? The Orioles should want that contract and position.

Boom Boom
10-15-2012, 02:07 PM
He's got to do better than Marquis. I think most Twins fans realized the rotation would be a weakness, and Ryan took the same approach to improving it as he did when the Twins were in the Dome - find a cheap, older veteran on a 1-year deal.

He only took the "old" approach after he had spent most of his money on Willingham and Doumit. I wasn't a fan of the Marquis signing but it's not as if he had a ton of money left over to go get a decent pitcher after spending $10m on those two players. This season should be different, as almost all of the front office's efforts will be focused on shoring up the rotation.

I guess we'll have to see just how much the Twins' previous toe-dips into the FA starter pool were budget-driven and how much they were philosophy-driven.

Until he proves me otherwise, my suspicion is that TR is petrified of inking another Joe Mays deal, no matter how much more money he has to spend.

Nick Nelson
10-15-2012, 02:26 PM
Given the Orioles success, and their deep pitching, could the Twins get Gausman for Span and random minor league pitcher? The Orioles should want that contract and position.

The Orioles would never make that move, but it's a moot point since players can't be traded until a year after they're drafted.

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 02:31 PM
Ya, that was a fantasy post. Of course, I would have just drafted him.....

nicksaviking
10-15-2012, 03:12 PM
Until Ryan signs a FA pitcher to a 2yr deal..or more..he's never done it.
Prove us cynics wrong...Id love to eat crow on this but time will tell

Bob Tewksbury got a 2 year deal, but that's it. I too am a cynic as the arguement that Ryan never had any money to work with seems pretty thin. There was always money when it came to extending the legacy guys. Why there was money for the Miltons, Mays', Blackburns and Bakers of this world but none for pitchers proven else where shows this front office is not nearly open-minded enough when it comes to other teams pitchers.

Also, Ryan took over in 1994 when the team still had plenty of offensive talent to compete and MLB payrolls weren't out of control. He was signing washed up vets like Tewksbury, Jim Deshaies, Mike Morgan, Greg Swindell and Sean Bergman back in the 1990's too.

Kobs
10-15-2012, 05:40 PM
Do not sign Capps and Marquis, and you have money. And, they could have spent more money, but chose not to. It is all about choices.

Let's not blur the issues. The Pohlads are responsible for the budget. If you have issues with the budget, that's another argument entirely. JR has nothing to do with it (or, perhaps more accurately, he has VERY LITTLE to do with it).

I've been told repeatedly that the Pohlad family has never denied a request to add payroll.

diehardtwinsfan
10-15-2012, 07:21 PM
Ryan would be foolish not to look at a long term deal. The pitching in this organization is very depleted at the upper levels. They need someone who is going to be around for more than a year. I am in favor of bringing in one guy on a 1 year deal, but they should be looking at two guys for 2-3 year deals. I do like the idea of going after Bedard... I think that has the potential to be a Willingham type deal.

darin617
10-15-2012, 07:34 PM
Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.

What would it take to make them consider signing with the Twins? The Twins are about to turn into the KC Royals, meaning they would have to overspend to get a decent pitcher to sign a contract.

They could always pull the fast one and sign both pitchers to 2-3 YR deals and deal them in July for prospects when we are fighting to stay out of the cellar once again...

old nurse
10-15-2012, 07:55 PM
Until Ryan signs a FA pitcher to a 2yr deal..or more..he's never done it.
Prove us cynics wrong...Id love to eat crow on this but time will tell

Bob Tewksbury got a 2 year deal, but that's it. I too am a cynic as the arguement that Ryan never had any money to work with seems pretty thin. There was always money when it came to extending the legacy guys. Why there was money for the Miltons, Mays', Blackburns and Bakers of this world but none for pitchers proven else where shows this front office is not nearly open-minded enough when it comes to other teams pitchers.

Also, Ryan took over in 1994 when the team still had plenty of offensive talent to compete and MLB payrolls weren't out of control. He was signing washed up vets like Tewksbury, Jim Deshaies, Mike Morgan, Greg Swindell and Sean Bergman back in the 1990's too.

Tewksbury had a WAR of 3 each year he pitched for the Twins, In 93 Deshaies had a war of 2.6. Contrast that with the WAR of Marcum 3.1 and 1.7 over the last two years.Single statistic analysis, but they pitched for some bad Twins teams.
Milton for the Twins was worth every penny they paid him. They were not going to be able to afford him, that is why he was traded. The Twins would love to get a pitcher like him when he was here. Joe Mays had a phenomenal 2001 season and they paid out for his arbitration years. Then he got injured. I do not know why they signed Blackburn for so long (Nor have I ever read a reason why). The Mays and the Bakers show why they would be reluctant to sign a pitcher for more than two years. If they are a pitcher from another system why are they available? Star seeking a big contract, not a star seeking a big contract, or not very good looking for a contract. You are not going to sign the latter two groups to a long term contract. The star is not going to come here unless they are overpaid.

mike wants wins
10-15-2012, 07:59 PM
Why are so worried about "overpaying"? You have to pay the market rate to get players. Why only aim for cheap players all the time? Why NEVER sign a free agent that is big time, never?

old nurse
10-15-2012, 08:09 PM
Why are so worried about "overpaying"? You have to pay the market rate to get players. Why only aim for cheap players all the time? Why NEVER sign a free agent that is big time, never?

The stage that is the Twin Cities is not very big. Look where most of the big free agents go. It is not the midwest mid sized market cities. If the Twins were near championship level it might attract a big time free agent. They are not near that level. The Twins signed some of their own players to large contracts to keep them. If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him. Puckett wanted to stay here, they paid him.

Kobs
10-15-2012, 10:59 PM
If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.

kab21
10-15-2012, 11:07 PM
Why are so worried about "overpaying"? You have to pay the market rate to get players. Why only aim for cheap players all the time? Why NEVER sign a free agent that is big time, never?

I'm all for signing FA's. The problem is that there is a limited supply each season and that's why you have to overpay. That's fine if you think a player will at least be decent for most of the contract. It's a problem if you have to go to 5 years and it's likely that the player will have declined a lot. For example do you think the two good starters from last offseason (Beuhrle and Wilson) will still be average pitchers at the end of their contracts? Many people have thought that Blackburn's 5M is a burden. How much more of a burden is a 15M bad contract? What if you have 2-3 bad contracts like that because you have gone nuts in FA with the wrong players? Perhaps you look like the Mets and Cubs.

Kobs
10-15-2012, 11:25 PM
Why are so worried about "overpaying"? You have to pay the market rate to get players. Why only aim for cheap players all the time? Why NEVER sign a free agent that is big time, never?

I'm all for signing FA's. The problem is that there is a limited supply each season and that's why you have to overpay. That's fine if you think a player will at least be decent for most of the contract. It's a problem if you have to go to 5 years and it's likely that the player will have declined a lot. For example do you think the two good starters from last offseason (Beuhrle and Wilson) will still be average pitchers at the end of their contracts? Many people have thought that Blackburn's 5M is a burden. How much more of a burden is a 15M bad contract? What if you have 2-3 bad contracts like that because you have gone nuts in FA with the wrong players? Perhaps you look like the Mets and Cubs.

That would be terrible to be as bad as the Mets and Cubs!

kab21
10-15-2012, 11:43 PM
That would be terrible to be as bad as the Mets and Cubs!

The Cubs and Mets have been spending 140M/yr to be terrible for years and they have terrible farm systems. they finally have made the decision to cut payroll, ditch their expensive veterans and build thru their farm system. Kind of what the Twins are currently doing.

Kobs
10-15-2012, 11:45 PM
That would be terrible to be as bad as the Mets and Cubs!

The Cubs and Mets have been spending 140M/yr to be terrible for years and they have terrible farm systems. they finally have made the decision to cut payroll, ditch their expensive veterans and build thru their farm system. Kind of what the Twins are currently doing.

...and what the Pirates and Royals have been doing for twenty years.

kab21
10-16-2012, 12:17 AM
...and what the Pirates and Royals have been doing for twenty years.

Still a weak comparison. The Pirates and Royals were completely inept orgs that were terrible at drafting and player development. In addition to that they were consistently going cheap in the draft and not taking the best players. Additionally they never had money available to spend on FA's when they started putting together a young core of players. The Pirates and Royals finally understood how to build a farm system and there is finally hope for their franchises. The Twins have shown that they will spend in the draft and internationally. they also have a lot of money to spend once they start putting a decent team together. In the meantime they don't even need to go really cheap in FA. they just need to avoid big mistakes like the Wilsons, Lowes, Burnetts, Lackeys, etc...

mike wants wins
10-16-2012, 08:20 AM
So never sign a free agent because you might be wrong? If you do not trust your gm, you have an issue. They did not sign any free agent when they were one player short earlier this century. Mauer is not getting younger, you are flushing all that money down the toilet if you refuse to sign other players. If the plan isn't to sign 2 legit starting pitchers, then they should deal almost every veteran on the roster.

SweetOne69
10-16-2012, 08:27 AM
If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.

The Twins were willing to sign Santana for 4 or 5 years at $20M/year. Under pressure by is agent and the Players Union he wanted to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball.

The fact of the matter is Santana wanted out. He wanted to play in a large market.

Looking back with how often Santana has been hurt over the last 5 years, I'm sure the Twins are thankful they lost him.

kab21
10-16-2012, 12:24 PM
So never sign a free agent because you might be wrong? If you do not trust your gm, you have an issue. They did not sign any free agent when they were one player short earlier this century. Mauer is not getting younger, you are flushing all that money down the toilet if you refuse to sign other players. If the plan isn't to sign 2 legit starting pitchers, then they should deal almost every veteran on the roster.

I've never said don't sign any. The problem is that a majority of the good starters go for 50-100M contracts and most of them end up being poor investments. A lot of good GM's have signed absolute crap in FA especially when you talk about non elite SP'ing so the trust your GM is complete crap. If you start shopping in the 20-30M price range then you are probably getting a #4 starter. You can improve your team in FA but you won't find the answers from turning a 90+ loss team into a contender.

I also disagree with either contend or burn it to the ground trade all veterans. The Twins should be trading those with significant value but that list is short and Span/Willingham will still be valuable at the deadline or next offseason. No reason to just dump veterans for the sake of getting younger. The only prospects that are even remotely blocked are at OF/1B but that should work itself out by midseason.

mike wants wins
10-16-2012, 12:51 PM
So if they did a great job of identifying the three best pitchers. Those three were great investments for three years and helped them get far in the postseason.....would that be worth the next two bad years? Every deal carries risk, the Twins seem to have almost no risk tolerance at all. That tends to limit the success of any business.

kab21
10-16-2012, 06:45 PM
So if they did a great job of identifying the three best pitchers. Those three were great investments for three years and helped them get far in the postseason.....would that be worth the next two bad years? Every deal carries risk, the Twins seem to have almost no risk tolerance at all. That tends to limit the success of any business.

I think in the end you believe that there are easy answers in FA that just don't exist. There's absolutely no way the Twins are going to be able to get 3 good SP'ers away from other teams. And you're not finding #1, #2 or #3 w/o putting the Twins at a serious risk at being bad for a long time due to some significant money tied up in mediocre players.

Here's as much as I'm okay with: sign the best starter the team can get for 3/35, trade Willy/Span for a guy like Shields and sign a guy like Baker/villanueva/etc on a short deal. This way the long term risk has been minimized and there is a chance that they have a solid rotation. Minimizing long term risk doesn't automatically equal completely punting the current teams.

5 year contracts for 30+ yr old non-elite pitchers are a terrible idea and I am 100% against any signing. Greinke is the only pitcher in this market that should get a 5 yr contract since he's younger and doesn't have any injury issues.

darin617
10-16-2012, 08:42 PM
[QUOTE=old nurse;58330]If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.[/QUOTE

Be thankful that he was traded. I am almost certain his contract calls for $25M this season.

greengoblinrulz
10-16-2012, 11:09 PM
Terry Ryan will make a 3yr 30m offer to Mark Buehrle when he says he wont consider anything under 4 yrs. They'll offer 5yrs 100m to Johan Santana when he says he wont take less than 7 yrs. Same with Torri Hunter...offering 3yrs when he wanted 5
MN is about making just low enough of an offer to be in the arguement, but not really get serious with the player. Funny that they think that fans actuallly buy any of that

mike wants wins
10-17-2012, 07:58 AM
Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

beckmt
10-17-2012, 08:57 AM
[QUOTE=old nurse;58330]If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.[/QUOTE

Be thankful that he was traded. I am almost certain his contract calls for $25M this season.
Twins scouts had a read that Santana would be an average pitcher by the middle end of his contract. That has turned out to happen because of injuries, he has missed chucks of time the last 2 - 3 years. Trade was terrible, but that was another issue. Boston would have been a much better trade partner.
Twins need to find pitchers for 1 or 2 years with an option, maybe 3 for the younger ones as it will be that long before Twins minor league starters are ready. More hope in that a trade can be made to bring in decent major league ready pitching.

beckmt
10-17-2012, 08:59 AM
Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.
This is really bad strategy, trading major league players to get a James sheilds if for more than one year would be a good strategy. Twins need to build a bridge, and expect this draft will be weaker than last years, so finding good pitching at the top will be difficult

Top Gun
10-17-2012, 09:36 AM
All pitchers are affordable.

nicksaviking
10-17-2012, 10:52 AM
[QUOTE=old nurse;58330]If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.[/QUOTE

Be thankful that he was traded. I am almost certain his contract calls for $25M this season.
Twins scouts had a read that Santana would be an average pitcher by the middle end of his contract. That has turned out to happen because of injuries, he has missed chucks of time the last 2 - 3 years. Trade was terrible, but that was another issue. Boston would have been a much better trade partner.
Twins need to find pitchers for 1 or 2 years with an option, maybe 3 for the younger ones as it will be that long before Twins minor league starters are ready. More hope in that a trade can be made to bring in decent major league ready pitching.

Santana has been hurt and the long-term contract for the then 29-year-old was not a good deal for the Mets. However, that only helps to overshadow the fact that Terry Ryan probably should have looked to extend his left-handed 25-year-old Cy Young winner for more than 4 years in the first place back in the 2004 off-season.

Twins Twerp
10-17-2012, 10:52 AM
Keep your prospects, we do need a few guys to bridge us to the next crop of Twin studs. When rebuilding, you don't have to go the route of Houston. You definatly don't have to go the route of Kansas City, we can be competitive while still building up our farm system. We do need some pitching, but we need to get it by signing Type B, not A, free agents and trading proven major league commodities who do not fit the long term plans. I am thinking Morneau, Span or Reverre (one of but not both), and Willingham. Keep building up that farm system. If we trade one of the men I just mentioned for some minor league pitching, we could still be competitive while building for the future.

PopRiveter
10-17-2012, 12:28 PM
If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.
It was widely reported that the Twins offered Santana 5 years, $93 million. That was a HUGE number for the Twins to offer at the time. He countered at $126 million which seemed to indicate that he had no interest in being part of the Metrodome era, small-market Twins team anymore.
Had the Twins signed him at $126, Mauer would've likely been gone after his MVP season while heading into a new ballpark. Santana's 2010 was excellent as usual and would've been nice to have, but then he got hurt in Sept. His surgery would've been the same albatross around the neck of the 2011 season that Mauer's bad health was.
It is very high risk to sign pitchers to big deals. More often than not, high-end deals blow up in your face. The results are especially bad with pitchers (and Alex Rodriguez.)
Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

ThePuck
10-17-2012, 12:32 PM
he just dropped payroll by 18M this year...and it seems he's going to do it again...that doesn't scream he's turned into a spender...

Brock Beauchamp
10-17-2012, 12:40 PM
Terry Ryan will make a 3yr 30m offer to Mark Buehrle when he says he wont consider anything under 4 yrs. They'll offer 5yrs 100m to Johan Santana when he says he wont take less than 7 yrs. Same with Torri Hunter...offering 3yrs when he wanted 5
MN is about making just low enough of an offer to be in the arguement, but not really get serious with the player. Funny that they think that fans actuallly buy any of that

Mark Buerhle is going to be paid $19m as a 36 year old in 2015. Santana has turned mediocre for the Mets while making ~$23m a season.

The Twins put out the offers but thankfully, they were smart enough to keep those offers within reason. Pitching contracts that go over $50m in total rarely (almost never) work out for the team that "wins" the bidding.

ThePuck
10-17-2012, 01:23 PM
better not to have quality pitching at all than to take a chance on spending what the market will bare for quality pitching I suppose...you know, just in case the pitcher doesn't work out. Cause, I'm sorry, they don't draft and develop quality pitching and getting a quality pitcher in trade is harder and harder without quality pieces to do it...especially when you overvalue the few quality trade pieces you do have...

old nurse
10-17-2012, 01:33 PM
[QUOTE=Kobs;58343][QUOTE=old nurse;58330]Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

ThePuck
10-17-2012, 01:40 PM
[QUOTE=Kobs;58343][QUOTE=old nurse;58330]Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

Joe Mays had one good season out of six with us. Silva pitched one very good year with us, two okay ones and a really bad one. Santana wasn't a FA signing or a trade, he was a rule 5 pick up. And Lohse wasn't that good with us either. He also failed to sign Santana early enough to avoid Smith having to trade him after the '07 season...

mike wants wins
10-17-2012, 03:03 PM
The puck has it correct.....

kab21
10-17-2012, 06:01 PM
Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

beckmt
10-17-2012, 06:59 PM
Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.
It would be nice to operate with an unlimited checkbook, the Yankess did that for many years. Most FA pitchers do not work out well. We still need a bridge to the next set of pitchers coming up. This will be both FA and trades. TR just has to get it right. That is not easy.

SweetOne69
10-18-2012, 08:06 AM
Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.

Teams can go from losing seasons to make the playoffs in one season. Both the Twins and Braves did it in 1991 and the Twins almost did it again in 2001. The Twins went from 74 wins to 95 wins from 1990 and 1991 and from 69 wins to 85 wins from 2000-2001 (finishing 2nd in the division). The Braves went from 64 wins to 94 wins in 1991.

mike wants wins
10-18-2012, 08:40 AM
Signing one player for Huge money is probably a bad idea. Signing 2 legit starting pitchers for 12 to 15 million a year for 4 or 5 years, that is the market rate. I will ask again, if you do not want to do that, how is the team competitive in the next three years?

kab21
10-18-2012, 10:03 AM
Signing one player for Huge money is probably a bad idea. Signing 2 legit starting pitchers for 12 to 15 million a year for 4 or 5 years, that is the market rate. I will ask again, if you do not want to do that, how is the team competitive in the next three years?

I'll ask you how devastating it would be to have 23M locked up in Mauer and 24-30M locked up in what ended up being two mediocre pitchers. History says that you probably aren't even getting two legit starting pitchers for 12-15M/yr.

Here is a list of FA starters since the 2006 offseason that fit your criteria (>3 yrs, 12+M/yr). There are 2 studs (well paid), 2 too early to tell, 2 alright pitchers (Dempster and Lilly) and a long list of brutal mistakes. Your proposal could be flushing 120-150M down the toilet and significantly extend any rebuilding that the Twins need to do. I do not like the prospect of being bad next year but you rebuild through the farm and supplement with FA. Spending recklessly in FA leads to becoming the Mets and Cubs and that is a very accurate comparison. They loaded their teams with expensive declining veterans and they sucked.


Buehrle 4/58
Wilson 5/75
Lee 5/120
lackey 5/82.5
Ollie Perez 3/36
Lowe 4/60
CC fort knox
Burnett 5/82.5
Dempster 4/52
Silva 4/48
Zito - 7/126
Suppan 4/42
Lilly 4/40
Meche 5/55
Schmidt - 3/47

kab21
10-18-2012, 10:06 AM
Teams can go from losing seasons to make the playoffs in one season. Both the Twins and Braves did it in 1991 and the Twins almost did it again in 2001. The Twins went from 74 wins to 95 wins from 1990 and 1991 and from 69 wins to 85 wins from 2000-2001 (finishing 2nd in the division). The Braves went from 64 wins to 94 wins in 1991.

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

mike wants wins
10-18-2012, 10:09 AM
They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 10:09 AM
[QUOTE=SweetOne69;58687]

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

kab21
10-18-2012, 10:38 AM
They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 10:53 AM
you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

I think his point of not trading players at their peak value is valid. We didn't do it with Hunter, we haven't, as of yet, done it with Willingham. We also didn't do it with Cuddyer...and that was a must do that we failed to do.

If we're going to build a pitching staff, hard decisions need to be made....and the way the new collective bargaining agreement is worded, it may force us to do that.

As far as our rotation goes, it's been okay once in the last 4 seasons, bad the other other three. This isn't a one year thing, it's been broken for awhile

mike wants wins
10-18-2012, 11:19 AM
If hicks and arcia replace span and Willingham in the next year or two, you free up another 12 million in salary. Why not spend that on pitching? Free agency cannot fix all your woes, agreed. Waiting 4 years for this system to be fixed cannot either.

I still do mot understand the long term risk point. You will have minimum wage guys at two outfield positions, and probably first base.....where will all the money go if not to free agents?

kab21
10-18-2012, 11:23 AM
As far as our rotation goes, it's been okay once in the last 4 seasons, bad the other other three. This isn't a one year thing, it's been broken for awhile

The rotation has been very solid except for one season until the disaster happened this year. you can say that it was obvious that the rotation looked weak going into 2011 but Liriano was coming off of a borderline great season and they had what should have been 3 solid #3's (plus Duensing and that crappy guy) behind him.
'03 - 20th
'04 - 4th
'05 - 9th
'06 - 9th
'07 - 10th
'08 - 15th - this is the first season w/o Johan
'09 - 26th
'10 - 16th - things looked pretty good going into 2011 unless you use hindsight

mike wants wins
10-18-2012, 11:24 AM
Where is that minor league depth other than the outfield? When is the next pitcher ready after Gibson? Middle infielder? Third baseman? Catcher? This is not a one year trend.

kab21
10-18-2012, 11:26 AM
If hicks and arcia replace span and Willingham in the next year or two, you free up another 12 million in salary. Why not spend that on pitching? Free agency cannot fix all your woes, agreed. Waiting 4 years for this system to be fixed cannot either.

I still do mot understand the long term risk point. You will have minimum wage guys at two outfield positions, and probably first base.....where will all the money go if not to free agents?

Review this if you don't understand the long term risk. the risk isn't that you have 4.00 ERA pitchers earning too much money. The risk (pretty likely) is that you have multiple Blackburn level pitchers earning 12-15M/yr for a long time.


Buehrle 4/58
Wilson 5/75
Lee 5/120
lackey 5/82.5
Ollie Perez 3/36
Lowe 4/60
CC fort knox
Burnett 5/82.5
Dempster 4/52
Silva 4/48
Zito - 7/126
Suppan 4/42
Lilly 4/40
Meche 5/55
Schmidt - 3/47

mike wants wins
10-18-2012, 11:29 AM
What are those stats?

mike wants wins
10-18-2012, 11:32 AM
I understand the risk, but I see no other path. You rarely win by only doing safe things. Baker will not be ready for several months into the season. If signing one free agent is a good idea, why is signing two a had idea?

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 11:35 AM
kab21: You forgot 2011 and 2012. Your original comment was he was basing things on one year, yet you don't post the last two.

I guess it depends on how far back you wanna go. I went back 4 years...the most recent times...trying to show it's been poor 3 of the last 4 seasons, not just one. That change was noticeably needed before just this last season. One could have looked at 2010 objectively and said a couple guys had career seasons...unusual season for them...like Pavano and Liriano for instance, and decided it was best not to put too much credence into those seasons, expecting the same results.

As far as '04-'07 seasons go, without Johan (one guy) where would that rotation have ranked? Truth is, we haven't done well in pitching for awhile...neither in drafting or developing, and it's shown...and not just for one season

Chance
10-18-2012, 11:48 AM
last season i thought it would have been a good idea to pick up Bedard, this season I feel the same way.
I feel that an affordable "twins quality" rotation would be
Edwin Jackson, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Erik Bedard, Liam Hendriks.
right, left, right, left, right.
This isnt that expensive at all, you still have Deduno, De Vries, Baker (when healthy), Vasquez, and others as backups.

For the offense I think you could trade Span and a few prospects for Starlin Castro to help our infield, Cubs want to trade him and he will eventually mature he is a guy the twins can and should target.

kab21
10-18-2012, 11:51 AM
What are those stats?Years and dollars.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 11:55 AM
For the offense I think you could trade Span and a few prospects for Starlin Castro to help our infield, Cubs want to trade him and he will eventually mature he is a guy the twins can and should target.

In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

And can you imagine Gardy having the biggest error machine in baseball on his team? Gardy would destroy him. I'm also not sure we have the right people to develop him into being the type of player his potential would suggest he is?

kab21
10-18-2012, 11:59 AM
kab21: You forgot 2011 and 2012. Your original comment was he was basing things on one year, yet you don't post the last two.

I guess it depends on how far back you wanna go. I went back 4 years...the most recent times...trying to show it's been poor 3 of the last 4 seasons, not just one. That change was noticeably needed before just this last season. One could have looked at 2010 objectively and said a couple guys had career seasons...unusual season for them...like Pavano and Liriano for instance, and decided it was best not to put too much credence into those seasons, expecting the same results.

As far as '04-'07 seasons go, without Johan (one guy) where would that rotation have ranked? Truth is, we haven't done well in pitching for awhile...neither in drafting or developing, and it's shown...and not just for one season

The rotation is awful now. I didn't include the two most recent seasons because the Twins have had exactly one offseason to react to 2011 and I'm not going to create any trends based on one offseason. Before that the rotation was arguably solid. '09 got ugly but '10 rebounded well and I already showed that 2011 should have been decent with Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Slowey, Duensing and blackburn (only one season removed from back to back 4.00 ERA seasons) with Gibson in AAA.

Do you think that the Twins should have been trading OF'ers or prospects for pitchers that offseason because that is your complaint?

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 12:18 PM
Do you think that the Twins should have been trading OF'ers or prospects for pitchers that offseason because that is your complaint?

No, the trading players at their peak value comment and the pitching problems comment are two separate issues, though one could say that if the team traded guys at their peak value (like they should have done with Cuddyer in the 2011 trading deadline) that pitching certainly should have been targeted.

My point about the pitching is that I don't think 2011 was the start of a trend...that's where I respectfully disagree with you. I think it started when Santana left. Certainly if your goal is to go deep into the playoffs for a W Series championship in mind, our pitching staff has lacked the pitching needed to win a short series against the best offenses in baseball for awhile now...even as improved as it was in 2010. If your goal is to be competitive in a weak division, I can see where hoping the 2010 Pavano and Liriano's 2010 was going to continue on to next season and keep us competitive, but not improving the rotation, and it staying the same as it was in 2010, certainly wasn't going to push us to the next level. IMO.

One could also say for a team that preaches to it's pitchers pitch to contact forcing ground balls, trading Hardy and not keeping Hudson (or replacing him with a solid glove) wasn't the best idea...

johnnydakota
10-18-2012, 12:36 PM
Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.
Affordable from Terry Ryan (at least to me....based on the teams history) means players who'll play for a 1 year deal, maybe 2 under the right circumstances
Marcum/Jackson are gonna want a 3 yr deal minumum.....Twins have NEVER signed a FA pitcher with that many years & have NEVER traded for a pitcher with that many years remaining (not counting pre-FA pitchers).
They are the cheapest team in baseball that has a 90m+ payroll.....this will continue this year.
As good as FA went last offseason, nobody got a big deal. They went cheap, but it worked out for the most part

worked out for the most part?96 losses, and once again the cancer curly ryan rebuilding this team.....

johnnydakota
10-18-2012, 12:40 PM
penny pinching might:

- make this an 85 loss team
- be the last nail in the Gardy and Ryan coffins...

i think the reason paul molitor wont be with the team as a coach this year is because he might wispher into jipppy pohlads ear....
hey boss the 3 stooges dont have a clue , hire real baseball people

Chance
10-18-2012, 12:42 PM
.[/QUOTE]In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.

And can you imagine Gardy having the biggest error machine in baseball on his team? Gardy would destroy him. I'm also not sure we have the right people to develop him into being the type of player his potential would suggest he is?[/QUOTE]


I would agree with that but realistically with Jackson and Bedard as FA I don't see us getting anyone better in a trade so I wouldn't want us to try. Castro has had a lot of errors but most have been mental/indifference, that can be corrected especially when dealing with a 22 yr old. Right now the Cubs don't want to deal with him, they would like a center fielder and some prospects to rebuild. I wouldn't mind trading Span and some others to strengthen our lineup. The bottom line is Castro's problems can be fix and right now I believe you can get him for a steal. .283 ave with 15 hr is very desirable from the SS position. We had over 10 errors at SS this season and Castro had (without looking I believe 19?) with at least 9 of them coming on mental mistakes that should get eliminated as he reaches 24-25 years old and has a coach who can hopefully get the most out of him.

Its not a lock that these decisions would yield a high payoff but the reward is worth the risk in my opinion.

johnnydakota
10-18-2012, 12:46 PM
Can we stop using Ryan's track record as an indicator of future moves? The dude had a $40m or lower payroll for many of those years. The early 2000s Metrodome Twins have very, very little to do with the 2013 Target Field Twins.

Ryan didn't have much money last season but he used it pretty smartly to pick up several players that helped the team enormously. There is no reason to expect him to do anything different this offseason when he has more money to play with and acquire players that aren't awful.

his worst move was keeping lame duck ron(larry) gardenhire....what quality free agent will want to come here with the team lossing 95+
games in back to back seasons and knowing some time during the season they will have to adjust to a different manager after adjusting to larryin the 1st place? and wether you choose to believe it or not curly ryan was running this team even when bill smith had the title of g.m.
it is time for a complete sweep of the 3 stooges and ronnies posse ....

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 01:04 PM
. We had over 10 errors at SS this season and Castro had (without looking I believe 19?) with at least 9 of them coming on mental mistakes that should get eliminated as he reaches 24-25 years old and has a coach who can hopefully get the most out of him.

Its not a lock that these decisions would yield a high payoff but the reward is worth the risk in my opinion.

He had 27 errors, 8 more than anyone else at shortstop. He had 29 the year before, 4 more than anyone else at shortstop. And he had 27 the year before that. Now, you'll find as I'm here longer, I don't really put too much credence into errors and fielding % to judge a defender, but GARDY and his gang harp on errors, which was really my point. Whether he'd thrive here under Gardy. On top of that, he really hasn't shown much range either. So, I mean, maybe it's a good idea, maybe it's not. I'd focus on pitching for trades though...at least this year. Just my opinion

Chance
10-18-2012, 01:23 PM
Thanks for the exact stats. in general any trade that the twins do makes me nervous, especially if they are trading for a pitcher. I just dont like who they target, there are players similar to who they trade for on the market that would require equal pay but not giving up an asset or trade chip.

johnnydakota
10-18-2012, 01:30 PM
with the pile of horse ploop curly ryan normally chases why not look to joba da hut chamberlin?
he might come here if he has a chance to be a starter,at a low cost 1 or 2 year contract , and if he cant cut it we can move him to the pen , he cant be any worse then gray or capps

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 01:34 PM
Thanks for the exact stats. in general any trade that the twins do makes me nervous, especially if they are trading for a pitcher. I just dont like who they target, there are players similar to who they trade for on the market that would require equal pay but not giving up an asset or trade chip.

Agreed...but IMO, it's the only way we're gonna fix the pitching any time soon.

johnnydakota
10-18-2012, 01:39 PM
They have what, one guy in the minors who looks legit as a starter for the next two or three years? If you do not sign any free agents, where does the pitching come from? They will not trade their top prospects, we know that. They refused to trade Willingham at his peak value. So, if you will not get starters this year or next, what is the plan?

you say things like won't and refused based on one season. They have always had a pretty good rotation and decent depth in the minors so your historical trends are kind of worthless. Before last offseason they hadn't signed a FA to a 20+M deal either. The Garza/Young trade was also a first for the org.

I've already told you what I would do. Try to trade for Shields (willy or Span), sign the best they can get for 3/30ish and bring back Baker on a 1 yr deal with 2 generous options (10Mish). that's the making of a solid rotation without exposing the Twins to significant long term risk. Your plan of signing TWO FA starters for 4/48-5/75 looks awful when you look at the utter crap that comparable FA starters have done.

It sucks to lose but you don't fix teams in FA.

other then gibson , what pitcher in AA or AAA can be a front of the rotation starter?and gibson isnt a lock to be one either..
terry curly ryan has drafted soft tossing inexpencive pitchers and wonders why we can not win or go beyond the 1st round of the playoffs?
he has been in charge since 1994, how much time do we need to figure out he is in it only as a profit for the company , not to win it all for the team and fans, many bashed ole george stienbrenner,but he tried to win it every year, not just to be the best in the worst division ....

old nurse
10-18-2012, 01:51 PM
[QUOTE=Kobs;58343][QUOTE=old nurse;58330]Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Ryan got pitchers like Joe Mays and Carlos Silva. Do not forget Santana was aquired outside of the organization. Lohse was origionally from elswhere. That is off the top of my head.

Joe Mays had one good season out of six with us. Silva pitched one very good year with us, two okay ones and a really bad one. Santana wasn't a FA signing or a trade, he was a rule 5 pick up. And Lohse wasn't that good with us either. He also failed to sign Santana early enough to avoid Smith having to trade him after the '07 season...

Rule V pickup I do believe is going out and getting pitching. Mays seemed to have it figured out then he got injured and was never the same again. Silva appeared to have pitched well enough to get a monster contract.

Brock Beauchamp
10-18-2012, 02:04 PM
It should also be noted that JR/BS were smart enough to cut ties with Silva and let someone else pay him ridiculous money.

It's one thing to pick up a guy that helps the team but is up-and-down overall. That's a good thing. It's another thing entirely to overpay that guy to keep him. That's a bad thing.

JR did the first. JR/BS wisely avoided the second.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 02:11 PM
yes, Rule V is going out and taking a chance on a player another team has given up on. It's a stab with little consequence if it doesn't work out. It's not an aggressive move to acquire pitching. It's a low risk, low reward move that worked out very well..but still a low risk move. The kind of low risk, low reward move that brought us Marquis, Ramon Ortiz, Ponson and Livan Hernandez (though that wasn't his).

And yes, Seattle paid a big contract to a guy who had an ERA of almost 6.00 in 2006 and over 4.00 in the season prior to them signing him. That makes them stupid, nothing more. They've made many a boneheaded FA signing. And he didn't work out there either.

Craig in MN
10-18-2012, 02:36 PM
[QUOTE=Chance;58765]
In my opinion, if we are trading Span, Revere, Willingham or Morneau, we have to get pitching.


I don't think that's true at all. There are plenty of holes and there's no reason to refuse to consider filling them via trade. I don't suspect Castro is the right target there, but the Twins could certainly use an upgrade at shortstop and it will be hard to find that in free agency. They can't be satisfied to start the season with a middle infield picked from Caroll, Florimon, Escobar, & Dozier, especially with 3rd base less than settled.

There are a lot more decent gambles in the free agent pitcher market than in the middle infielder market. In this market, I think I'd get better value trading, for example, Revere for a comparable young decent shortstop and sign a starter with some upside than vice versa. I really don't see a shortstop that I could sign and feel remotely good about.

nicksaviking
10-18-2012, 02:42 PM
[QUOTE=SweetOne69;58687]

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Pretty sure the Twins signed the 2nd best free agent pitcher in 1991, who knows if they would have gone after Clemons, but it wasn't like he was leaving Boston at that time.

Not sure who insisted on the 1 year deal for Jack Morris, but seeing as Terry Ryan learned everything he knew from Andy McPhail, it would seem likely the Twins were pleased it wasn't a multi-year contract. $3.7M isn't a lot for a pitcher these days, but it was likely a top 5 salary for a pitcher seeing as Morris was getting paid more than Dave Stewart who signed his deal the year before. Of course Chili Davis' 2 year $2.5M deal was also likely a top 10 free agent deal that off-season. Add Mike Pagliarulo and throw in the trade that brought former Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and his $1.3M contract to the Twins and it's hard to argue they weren't pretty agressive heading into that season.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 02:45 PM
IMO, pitching is our biggest need by far and our best chips need to be used for that. I understand you disagree, but I'm not seeing how needing 3-4 quality starting pitchers doesn't make it our biggest need. We don't have it in the minors, and Terry Ryan already said we aren't gonna pay for them in FA, so how else are we going to get it if not by tradinge for them with one or two of our best chips?

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 02:46 PM
[QUOTE=SweetOne69;58687]

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Pretty sure the Twins signed the 2nd best free agent pitcher in 1991, who knows if they would have gone after Clemons, but it wasn't like he was leaving Boston at that time.

Not sure who insisted on the 1 year deal for Jack Morris, but seeing as Terry Ryan learned everything he knew from Andy McPhail, it would seem likely the Twins were pleased it wasn't a multi-year contract. $3.7M isn't a lot for a pitcher these days, but it was likely a top 5 salary for a pitcher seeing as Morris was getting paid more than Dave Stewart who signed his deal the year before. Of course Chili Davis' 2 year $2.5M deal was also likely a top 10 free agent deal that off-season. Add Mike Pagliarulo and throw in the trade that brought former Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and his $1.3M contract to the Twins and it's hard to argue they weren't pretty agressive heading into that season.

That was over 20 years ago.

nicksaviking
10-18-2012, 03:33 PM
[QUOTE=SweetOne69;58687]

The '01 Twins and '91 Braves did it through the farm system and were built for long term success. They did not do it through FA.

and our minor league system is hurting, especially in the pitching department

Pretty sure the Twins signed the 2nd best free agent pitcher in 1991, who knows if they would have gone after Clemons, but it wasn't like he was leaving Boston at that time.

Not sure who insisted on the 1 year deal for Jack Morris, but seeing as Terry Ryan learned everything he knew from Andy McPhail, it would seem likely the Twins were pleased it wasn't a multi-year contract. $3.7M isn't a lot for a pitcher these days, but it was likely a top 5 salary for a pitcher seeing as Morris was getting paid more than Dave Stewart who signed his deal the year before. Of course Chili Davis' 2 year $2.5M deal was also likely a top 10 free agent deal that off-season. Add Mike Pagliarulo and throw in the trade that brought former Cy Young winner Steve Bedrosian and his $1.3M contract to the Twins and it's hard to argue they weren't pretty agressive heading into that season.

That was over 20 years ago.

So using the 1991 World Series team as an excuse NOT to go after free agents was acceptable, but using the same example to show they actually won the World Series by being agressive in the offseason was unacceptable?

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 03:38 PM
'So using the 1991 World Series team as an excuse NOT to go after free agents is acceptable, but using the same team to show they won the World Series by being agressive in the offseasons is unacceptable?'

That's not my argument. I'm saying just cause he did something over 20 years ago doesn't mean he's going to now. He hasn't shown a willingness to do that in a long time.. On top of that, he's already saying he won't do it this coming year. He SHOULD do that. I'm agreeing with you on what he should do...

nicksaviking
10-18-2012, 03:56 PM
Ah, my mistake, I thought the reply was aimed at my statement, instead of Terry Ryan's reluctance to be agressive.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 04:10 PM
Ah, my mistake, I thought the replay was aimed at my statement, instead of Terry Ryan's reluctance to be agressive.

No worries :-)

jharaldson
10-18-2012, 05:07 PM
The problem is that a majority of the good starters go for 50-100M contracts and most of them end up being poor investments.

Just for fun I took a look at all starters signed over the past 5 years to contracts over $50 million in value and return on investment is not that bad.

2524

If you compare the salary they have earned to what Fangraphs projects as their value you are looking at a 88.44% return on investment which is not great but is not the really bad number I was expecting.

kab21
10-18-2012, 07:04 PM
Sometimes I wonder how much actual analysis people do when posting stats. It's like they have made an opinion and look for data that supports it w/o checking to see if the numbers make sense.

A) you need to take Sabathia, Lee and Darvish (and add Darvish's 51M posting fee) out since they are clearly elite and not part of the discussion. Elite pitchers actually work out pretty well. The ones that don't are the non-elite pitchers that get paid 12-15M/yr which is exactly what's available this offseason and exactly what people want to sign. Greinke is the only pitcher this year that is close to CC, Lee and Darvish and everyone says avoid him. In this offseason either you sign Greinke or you avoid long term commitments.

B) I'm not sure you can include Wilson or Buehrle since the big risk with them is paying them 15+M when they are in their mid to late 30's. We don't have this data yet and I included them in the too early to tell group.

C) extend your look to include those back to 2006 (or further) that I posted. It looks simply awful.

D) this suggests that you believe in fangraphs WAR for pitchers - Lowe somehow earned 40M with ERA's of 4.67, 4.00, 5.05 and 5.11 despite pitching in a pitchers park in the NL? If you consider that 40M worth of value then I don't even know where to start because it's not 40M worth of value. He was awful.

After adjusting your list you're left with:
Lackey - 4.40 and 6.4 ERA's before having TJ surgery. Absolutely awful.
Burnett - The Yankees got 4.00, 5+, and 5+ ERA seasons out of their 82M investment before eating a lot of his contract and trading him
Lowe - the Braves got ERA's of 4.67, 4.00, 5+ and 5+ for their 60M
Dempster - earned his contract and is one of only 2 guys going back to the 2006 offseason that has

jharaldson
10-18-2012, 08:17 PM
A) you need to take Sabathia, Lee and Darvish (and add Darvish's 51M posting fee) out since they are clearly elite and not part of the discussion.

You included them in your list that you supplied on page 4 and I will include them in mine. I took the parameters of over 50 million and applied it to the past 5 years. You are correct about Darvish, the ESPN Tracker link did not list the posting fee and I forgot about it. That changes the percentage to %78.6 which doesn’t change my point. Contracts over $50 million are not dollar for dollar great investments but they are not flops either.



B) I'm not sure you can include Wilson or Buehrle since the big risk with them is paying them 15+M when they are in their mid to late 30's. We don't have this data yet and I included them in the too early to tell group.

Again, you included them in the list you provided on page 4 so if they weren’t eligible for discussion I would assume you would not have brought them up. Also, they have shorter contracts (4-5 years) then someothers because of that concern.



C) extend your look to include those back to 2006 (or further) that I posted. It looks simply awful.

Typically I do my analysis in normal timeframes (5, 10, 15, ect…). You are accusing me of cherry-picking stats but you pick a random 6 year period just to pick up Zito’s bad contract. I would also state that there has been a well-acknowledged shift in free agent contracts in the past 5 years where there are no longer ridiculous numbers being given out to guys just because they are the last ones standing. It’s how we got Crede for 1 year instead of 3. It’s how we got Pavano on a decent 2 year deal instead of him getting a bigger contract elsewhere.



d) this suggests that you believe in fangraphs WAR for pitchers - Lowe somehow earned 40M with ERA's of 4.67, 4.00, 5.05 and 5.11 despite pitching in a pitchers park in the NL? If you consider that 40M worth of value then I don't even know where to start because it's not 40M worth of value. He was awful

Lowe had FIP’s of 4.06, 3.89, 3.70, and 4.37 those years as well. If you can find some other reference that uses a consistent mathematical formula and not just opinions for value I will refer to that, but until I find another source Fangraphs value is all I have for a neutral source.

In short, I think if the Twins go after Greinke or Peavy in that over $50 million range they won’t get exact value but they won’t get robbed either but if they take a step down into the $20-$49 million range they will find that money foolishly spent.

kab21
10-18-2012, 08:43 PM
I also gave an analysis that said 2 studs, 2 too early to tell, 2 decent pitchers and a big pile of crap. I listed Wilson and Buehrle but I think it's way too early to do an analysis of their contracts since 75+% is left to play out.

My selection criteria had nothing to do with cherry picking so I could include Zito. Feel free to exclude him if you want. This was the only range that the mlbtraderumors FA database was searchable.

So you think Lowe was worth 40M, Lackey was worth 23M and Burnett 42M because FIP and fangraphs says so then I honestly question your baseball analysis. If they pulled the crap they did with the Twins they would be lumped with the Blackburns of the world. They have been absolutely awful and no amount of FIP can convince me otherwise.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 08:46 PM
Nice post jharaldson. I also like to use Fangraphs. Though some try and discredit the info there, the people who gather that info do it for a living, watching all the players play all their games and evaluating everyone based on the same criteria with unbias eyes. While some of the info probably needs tweaking, at least it's fair across the board. I think it's pretty easy for some to discredit it as geek speak, or whatever, but that happens anytime change is brought about.

Someone even mentioned WAR and WHIP together as ridiculous. If you discredit WHIP as nonsense, might a well discredit old school stats like ERA and batting average while you're at it.

TheLeviathan
10-18-2012, 09:04 PM
Nice post jharaldson. I also like to use Fangraphs.

It's one thing to value alternative metrics that tell a better story of a player's success, it's another to ignore results in favor of those metrics. From what I can see the "value" stat is cobbled together from other stats that are a bit more theoretical than OPS or WHIP.

I would suggest that if a stat says that Lowe was worth 40M - it may need some tinkering.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 09:18 PM
Nice post jharaldson. I also like to use Fangraphs.

It's one thing to value alternative metrics that tell a better story of a player's success, it's another to ignore results in favor of those metrics. From what I can see the "value" stat is cobbled together from other stats that are a bit more theoretical than OPS or WHIP.

I would suggest that if a stat says that Lowe was worth 40M - it may need some tinkering.

I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

TheLeviathan
10-18-2012, 09:25 PM
I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

Which is cool - I think what kab is suggesting is that this particular interpretation of "value" that is being floated here is as questionable as some of the defensive metrics that often don't pass the eye test or have other similar problems.

kab21
10-18-2012, 09:28 PM
I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

All of this info says that Lowe was worth 40M, Burnett 52M and lackey 23M? WOW!

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 09:32 PM
I use fangraphs more for defensive metrics than anything else, myself...but I look at ALL info...what my eyes tells me, most traditional stats (though not all), new metrics, etc...everything in order to try and get the best info I can.

Which is cool - I think what kab is suggesting is that this particular interpretation of "value" that is being floated here is as questionable as some of the defensive metrics that often don't pass the eye test or have other similar problems.

My post really wasn't about kab's argument. It was just an in general type observation...that so many discredit anything other than traditional stats, whether it's because they truly don't believe in the info, or because the info doesn't support their view.

I haven't seen enough of kab's posts to make any kind of true observation on where he stands on new metrics.

TheLeviathan
10-18-2012, 09:47 PM
I haven't seen enough of kab's posts to make any kind of true observation on where he stands on new metrics.

Then I might suggest, prior to complimenting an argument, you look at the total context of it.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 09:57 PM
[

Then I might suggest, prior to complimenting an argument, you look at the total context of it.

I was complimenting the research and the fact that he uses fangraphs, as opposed to so many who shy away from it. I wasn't picking either side of the argument or knocking kab. It's their debate, I'm not in it.

I will continue to occasionally compliment posts that I think took a lot of effort and thought as I see fit, but I appreciate your suggestion

clutterheart
10-18-2012, 10:03 PM
Affordable options = not going to invest in the team to make it better.
Affordable for a poor man does not mean the same as for a Rich man. And the Twins are not poor. Did the 1500 crew challenge him/follow up on this? (I doubt they have the balls to do this)

This is beyond annoying to me. If the twins go the Affordable route, many people in MN will start looking for other "affordable" options to spend their entertainment money.
The residents of Hennipen county should ask for their money back.

TheLeviathan
10-18-2012, 10:12 PM
I will continue to occasionally compliment posts that I think took a lot of effort and thought as I see fit, but I appreciate your suggestion

I could research the holy hell out of the migratory patterns of bats and it doesn't mean a thing if we're talking about football. The fact is, from what I see, it's a well researched turd that he polished up nicely and got a compliment from you. So I'll feel free to point out your appreciation of shiny turds as well.

ThePuck
10-18-2012, 10:22 PM
I could research the holy hell out of the migratory patterns of bats and it doesn't mean a thing if we're talking about football. The fact is, from what I see, it's a well researched turd that he polished up nicely and got a compliment from you. So I'll feel free to point out your appreciation of shiny turds as well.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion. Not sure why a simple compliment of a post inspired such effort by you to chastise a person you don't even know. I guess manners takes a backseat to trying to force one's opinion on to someone else. Your opinion of his post is just that, your opinion...nothing more. Perhaps some tolerance of other people's opinion is in order...or you actually debate HIM on his post rather than chastising someone for making a simple compliment.

Kobs
10-18-2012, 10:27 PM
...and what the Pirates and Royals have been doing for twenty years.

Still a weak comparison. The Pirates and Royals were completely inept orgs that were terrible at drafting and player development. In addition to that they were consistently going cheap in the draft and not taking the best players. Additionally they never had money available to spend on FA's when they started putting together a young core of players. The Pirates and Royals finally understood how to build a farm system and there is finally hope for their franchises. The Twins have shown that they will spend in the draft and internationally. they also have a lot of money to spend once they start putting a decent team together. In the meantime they don't even need to go really cheap in FA. they just need to avoid big mistakes like the Wilsons, Lowes, Burnetts, Lackeys, etc...

So, the Twins are a smart organization who know how to build a farm system (despite the awful production from their farm system in recent years), but they're destined to be the Cubs or Mets if they spend money on the major league club? Brilliant.

TheLeviathan
10-18-2012, 10:45 PM
You're certainly entitled to your opinion. Not sure why a simple compliment of a post inspired such effort by you to chastise a person you don't even know. I guess manners takes a backseat to trying to force one's opinion on to someone else. Your opinion of his post is just that, your opinion...nothing more. Perhaps some tolerance of other people's opinion is in order...or you actually debate HIM on his post rather than chastising someone for making a simple compliment.

kab is doing just fine at that. A poor argument is a poor argument, no matter how spiffy you think the source material is.

ThePuck
10-19-2012, 08:01 AM
Just for fun I took a look at all starters signed over the past 5 years to contracts over $50 million in value and return on investment is not that bad.

2524

If you compare the salary they have earned to what Fangraphs projects as their value you are looking at a 88.44% return on investment which is not great but is not the really bad number I was expecting.

So, when I read this chart, I interpreted it to mean it was saying that CJ Wilson was worth 11M this year. Buehrle less than 10M this year, Yarvish worth 22.9M this year, Lackey less than 8M a year over the last 3 years, Burnett less than 11M per year overt the last 4 years, Lowe less than 10M over the last 4 years and so on.

Of course those are averages, some years they were worth more and some were worth less. Did they explain this was based only on pitchers who had already hit the free agent market and what was to be expected value of pitchers on the free agent market as opposed to all pitchers?

jharaldson
10-19-2012, 09:24 AM
I am seeing a lot of disagreement with the Fangraphs value indicator. I agree that it is not perfect but at least it is impartial. Just out of curiousity, what value would any of the recent posters put on AJ Burnett over the past 4 years and how would it differ from Fangraphs:



Season

Team
W
L
G
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
ERA
FIP
xFIP
WAR
VALUE


2009
Yankees
13
9
33
33
207
8.5
4.22
1.09
0.295
75.90%
42.80%
10.80%
4.04
4.3
4.23
3.5
$15.70


2010
Yankees
10
15
33
33
186
7
3.76
1.21
0.319
68.80%
44.90%
11.60%
5.26
4.8
4.49
1.3
$5.40


2011
Yankees
11
11
33
32
190
8.2
3.92
1.47
0.294
70.00%
49.20%
17.00%
5.15
4.8
3.86
1.4
$6.50


2012
Pirates
16
10
31
31
202
8
2.76
0.8
0.294
74.10%
56.90%
12.70%
3.51
3.5
3.4
3.4
$15.20



I actually think it looks reasonably on. I would pay $15 million each for the 2009 and 2012 seasons while I might pay lower ($3-4 million) for the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

One other note, there was a comment above that these guys would be lumped in with Nick Blackburn if they were on the Twins. Fangraphs has Nick Blackburns total value under his current contract (2010-2012) at $1.7 million dollars for those 3 seasons with a negative $3.4 million this year.

JB_Iowa
10-19-2012, 09:38 AM
Affordable options = not going to invest in the team to make it better.
Affordable for a poor man does not mean the same as for a Rich man. And the Twins are not poor. Did the 1500 crew challenge him/follow up on this? (I doubt they have the balls to do this)

This is beyond annoying to me. If the twins go the Affordable route, many people in MN will start looking for other "affordable" options to spend their entertainment money.
The residents of Hennipen county should ask for their money back.


This is a really good point. Not every player at every position has to exceed their "projected value". Younger players (before the last year of arbitration) should provide significant value above their contract amount. Then you should have somewhat older players who should meet or exceed their contracts (e.g. Denard Span). That should allow you to take some risks in acquiring other players.

And, starting pitching seems to be the area where the Twins MOST need to take those risks. It may not work out but the team should have enough projected value from other players to cushion any blows.

kab21
10-19-2012, 09:41 AM
Fangraphs uses FIP (fielding independent pitching) to determine how many wins (above replacement) a pitcher was worth. Each WAR is worth X amount (4-5M). I use fangraphs and FIP (and xFIP) for a lot of things but I don't blindly trust numbers. It's really, really hard to come up with these numbers and there really isn't a perfect method. Some limitations to FIP for this kind of analysis is not taking into account park factors and league factors. There is another issue with using FIP. Some pitchers routinely underperform their FIP. That means that they consistently have a higher ERA indicating that for whatever reason that FIP cannot determine they allow more runs than expected.

it's not a bad idea to use fangraphs, FIP, xFIP or other stats to determine but you also need to use your common sense. Lowe, Burnett, and lackey are pretty clear cut colossal failures in FA. If the Twins signed 1-2 pitchers for 50-75M and they pitched as bad as this trio this board would give them the Blackburn treatment. About the only thing this trio can claim is that they pitched better than the AAA filler that the Twins depended on this year.

kab21
10-19-2012, 10:03 AM
I'll reorganize my FA starting pitcher summary to make it a little easier to understand for those that don't know the history of every player in the last decade. For the most part I'm not looking up stats but just going by memory since I don't want to spend a lot of time on this since I have a neverending pile of important writing to do. If someone wants to go back further than 2006 FA signings feel free to add them in (only if you do all signings though). mlbtraderumors has an easy to search database that included all of them back to 2006 and some before that.

I will exclude the top 6 (studs, Japanese and 2012 signings) from the analysis for what should be logical reasons.

This pretty clearly shows that you are not getting what you are expecting when you shop in the 35-80M range. You should be getting a solid #2/3 pitcher but out of the 11 starters left in this list there were only 2 solid starters that performed up to their contracts. 9 of the contracts were simply terrible. that is a horrible success rate and not even the best GM's are going to make good choices.

Why don't the pitchers meet expectations? Some were not very good in the first place and were paid too much because starters almost always get paid too much in FA. A lot of them suffered injuries or went into age related decline. This shouldn't have been shocking since most FA starters are in their 30's. As a general rule of thumb teams should avoid long term contracts to 30 somethings. This should be common sense.

Should the Twins avoid FA to add pitching? No. They should avoid anything beyond 3 years so that the damage doesn't last too long. The Twins are not poor and they can handle a short term 10M dead contract. 25-30M/yr until 2017 could be devastating. Luckily there are a lot of decent but not great starters on the market this year. They should be able to grab a #3 for 3/30. I would also contend that there really isn't a pitcher aside from Greinke (5/100 imo) that stands out from the FA pitchers. it's likely that the 3/30 signings could outperform the 5/60+M signings.

studs that were signed as studs - I like this category of signing as long as you have the money and the pitcher is actual stud
CC fort knox
Lee 5/120

International FA's - originally excluded because of how I sorted at mlbtraderumors - both were around 100M guys with the posting fee. pretty much paid as studs.
Darvish
Dice-K - did not work out partly due to injuries

too early to tell - can't really included since 75-80% of the contract remains. I'm not optimistic about these two pitching well in their mid and late 30's
Buehrle 4/58
Wilson 5/75

somewhat decent guys that probably qualify as #3's
Dempster 4/52
Lilly 4/40

most would consider these contracts brutally awful - Meche is the best in this group
lackey 5/82.5 - pitched awful and had TJ in his 3rd season
Ollie Perez 3/36 - was hurt for the entire contract and he was so bad when he did pitch that the Mets would have been better if he hadn't pitched
Lowe 4/60 - he had ERA's between 4 and 5+ during his 4 seasons
Burnett 5/82.5 - an alright first season but he was so bad in the next two that the Yankees paid the pirates to take him
Silva 4/48 - he was beyond awful
Zito - 7/126 - signed as a stud and performed as a #4/5
Suppan 4/42 - he was a #3 before and he performed as a #5 or worse
Meche 5/55 - had two decent seasons before he wrecked his arm. he actually retired a year early and forfeited the final year of his contract
Schmidt - 3/47 - I don't think he ever threw a pitch for the Dodgers. Ironically the giants let him go so they could make a bigger mistake signing Zito.

Brock Beauchamp
10-19-2012, 10:07 AM
About the only thing this trio can claim is that they pitched better than the AAA filler that the Twins depended on this year.

Barely. Deduno and De Vries weren't awful and together, they would have only made $1m in 2012 over the course of an entire season. They're not acceptable options for a ML franchise that wants to compete but at least they're not $15m albatrosses.

jharaldson
10-19-2012, 12:00 PM
studs that were signed as studs - I like this category of signing as long as you have the money and the pitcher is actual stud
CC 7/161 – Fangraphs Value = 103 million
Lee 5/120 – Fangraphs Value = 52 million

International FA's - originally excluded because of how I sorted at mlbtraderumors - both were around 100M guys with the posting fee. pretty much paid as studs.
Darvish – Fangraphs Value = 23 million
Dice-K - did not work out partly due to injuries – Fangraphs Value = 44 million

too early to tell - can't really included since 75-80% of the contract remains. I'm not optimistic about these two pitching well in their mid and late 30's
Buehrle 4/58 – Fangraphs Value = 9.5 million
Wilson 5/75 – Fangraphs Value = 11 million

somewhat decent guys that probably qualify as #3's
Dempster 4/52 – Fangraphs Value = 56 million
Lilly 4/40 – Fangraphs Value = 44 million

most would consider these contracts brutally awful - Meche is the best in this group
Fan Graphs & Kab Agree
Ollie Perez 3/36 - was hurt for the entire contract and he was so bad when he did pitch that the Mets would have been better if he hadn't pitched – Fangraphs Value = -8 million
Silva 4/48 - he was beyond awful – Fangraphs Value = 14 million
Zito - 7/126 - signed as a stud and performed as a #4/5 – Fangraphs Value = 30 million
Suppan 4/42 - he was a #3 before and he performed as a #5 or worse – Fangraphs Value = 7 million
Schmidt - 3/47 - I don't think he ever threw a pitch for the Dodgers. Ironically the giants let him go so they could make a bigger mistake signing Zito. – Fangraphs Value = 0 million

Fan Graphs & Kab Disagree
lackey 5/82.5 - pitched awful and had TJ in his 3rd season – Fangraphs Value = 23.5 million
Lowe 4/60 - he had ERA's between 4 and 5+ during his 4 seasons – Fangraphs Value = 40 million
Burnett 5/82.5 - an alright first season but he was so bad in the next two that the Yankees paid the pirates to take him – Fangraphs Value = 43 million
Meche 5/55 - had two decent seasons before he wrecked his arm. he actually retired a year early and forfeited the final year of his contract – Fangraphs Value = 46 million


I think the interesting thing above is that Fangraphs and Kab actually agree most of the time. Pretty much all of the at the top are as he describes. The difference is once we get in to the brutally awful contracts. Again, Kab and Fangraphs agree on half of them. Perez, Silva, Zito, Suppan, and Schmidt were truly awful contracts. Where they begin to disagree is on Lackey, Lowe, Burnett, and Meche. The question is, what do you do when there is a disagreement? Do you disregard the numbers out of hand or do you take a second look? Take a second look at those guys and they are not as bad as you would expect:

Lackey – A good first year with the Red Sox (4.40 ERA in Fenway and 200+ innings) followed by a bad year and a lost year. If he comes back well from Tommy John I think he still has potential to provide a %50-60 return on the Red Sox investment. Not good, but not truly awful. Fun Fact: Red Sox get a free season from Lackey due to a quirk in his contract so this is really a 6 year/83.5 million contract now.

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/08/23/could-john-lackey-be-part-red-sox-solution-201

Lowe – 2 years of good ERA (4.00 and 4.67) and 2 years of bad (5.05 and 5.67) but his FIP never got above 4.59. Fangraphs says he was a %66 return on investment which seems about right. Not good, but not truly awful.

Burnett – I put a table out above that shows 2 good seasons (4.04 and 3.51 ERA) and 2 bad seasons (5.26 and 5.15 ERA). I think a 4.04 ERA in Yankee stadium is pretty good and a 3.51 ERA is as well. I think if he has another good season in Pittsburgh that he will end up a %60-80 return on investment.

Meche – He had 2 really good year with the Royals, 1 bad year, and 1 injured year. If you adjust his contract to 4 years/$44 million due to him opting out of the last year he actually gave the Royals almost equal value.

I would truly be interested in the values that other posters on Twins Daily would assign to these pitchers performance. If Lackey is not worth $23.5 million his first three years, what is he worth? How far off are the Fangraphs numbers to ones you would assign? Thanks!

ThePuck
10-19-2012, 12:11 PM
'I think the interesting thing above is that Fangraphs and Kab actually agree most of the time. Pretty much all of the at the top are as he describes. The difference is once we get in to the brutally awful contracts. Again, Kab and Fangraphs agree on half of them. Perez, Silva, Zito, Suppan, and Schmidt were truly awful contracts. Where they begin to disagree is on Lackey, Lowe, Burnett, and Meche.'

Some will only trust info if it agrees with what they already believe and they'll discard it if it doesn't. Even if it's the same source. I'm not saying that's happening here, but you see it all the time.

kab21
10-19-2012, 06:51 PM
I think your definition of good needs some tweaking. If the Twins paid big bucks for a pitcher and they were putting up 4+ ERA seasons with a couple of 5+ ERA seasons they would be regarded as a massive failure.

jharaldson
10-19-2012, 09:11 PM
We did have a guy like Lowe on our team the past 4 years earning quite a bit of money (~$25 million). His name was Carl Pavano and he had 2 years of 5+ ERA like Lowe and 2 years of ERA at 4.30 and 3.75. Both Pavano and Lowe had truly bad seasons in 2012 and had a season where their ERA looked a lot worse then how they pitched (Lowe 2011, Pavano 2009) but I would say that both were not "massive failures" and both were worth $30-40 million during that timeframe. That happens to be above what Pavano earned so he was a good deal where that is %50-66 of what Lowe earned making him not a good deal but not a massive failure.



Pavano



















Season

W

L

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR



2009

14

12

33

33

199.1

6.64

1.76

1.17

0.329

66.10%

43.40%

10.70%

5.1

4

3.89

3.7



2010

17

11

32

32

221

4.76

1.51

0.98

0.281

74.00%

51.20%

10.60%

3.75

4.02

3.86

3.2



2011

9

13

33

33

222

4.14

1.62

0.93

0.306

67.30%

50.60%

9.40%

4.3

4.1

4.14

3



2012

2

5

11

11

63

4.71

1.14

1.29

0.329

56.90%

41.20%

10.70%

6

4.38

4.48

0.6






















Lowe



















Season

W

L

G

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR



2009

15

10

34

34

194.2

5.13

2.91

0.74

0.327

68.70%

56.30%

9.40%

4.67

4.06

4.14

2.6



2010

16

12

33

33

193.2

6.32

2.83

0.84

0.307

74.20%

58.80%

13.10%

4

3.89

3.54

2.8



2011

9

17

34

34

187

6.59

3.37

0.67

0.327

65.90%

59.00%

10.20%

5.05

3.7

3.65

2.6



2012

9

11

38

21

142.2

3.47

3.22

0.63

0.326

66.40%

59.20%

9.10%

5.11

4.37

4.59

1.1





Not to press the question again but if you disagree with my opinions and what Fangraphs states then what do you think their value is? If Lowe is not worth $40 million over the past 4 years then what is your number? What are you numbers for Lackey, Burnett, and Meche?

kab21
10-19-2012, 11:24 PM
I think it's awesome how this thread has become 'Lowe/Lackey/Burnett/Meche weren't that bad'. The problem is that this is the likely result if the Twins plunge into FA looking for starters.

Let me press on something then. Since this thread is basically about complaining that the Twins won't spend big bucks on non-elite starters then how would you feel if the Twins plowed 100-150M into two starters whose absolute best case would be Dempster/Lilly and the more likely case would be Lowe/Burnett/Lackey/Meche/Suppan/Zito/Suppan/Schmidt/Silva?

My valuations. I will use ERA since that is a measure of what actually happened. the pitcher actually gave up that bases clearing double. he actually walked the bases loaded before giving up a HR. I'll give Burnett and lackey +5M for having to pitch in the AL East.

ERA's
3.50 - 15M
4 - 10M
4.50 - 5M
5 - 0M - if you can't throw a 5.00 ERA then you shouldn't be in the rotation and you are hurting your team
5.50 - -5M
6 - -10M

Meche - 20M on a 55M contract - I'm not including his gift of early retirement since injuries happen all the time but almost nobody has given their team a free pass
Lowe - 14M on a 60M contract
Burnett - Yankees get 15M in value plus 13M from Pirates on a 82M contract
Lackey - -5M in value but it can still work out because they 34 yr old coming off of TJ surgery for 3 more seasons.

TheLeviathan
10-19-2012, 11:25 PM
Not to press the question again but if you disagree with my opinions and what Fangraphs states then what do you think their value is? If Lowe is not worth $40 million over the past 4 years then what is your number? What are you numbers for Lackey, Burnett, and Meche?

It's an interesting thought experiment, but from my vantage point it's hard to take an argument seriously that suggests an ERA of 4.67 constitutes a "good" season.

beckmt
10-20-2012, 12:12 AM
If I understand this:
It only pays to buy studs or international pitchers in the FA market.
A few of the #3 types will work out, but most will not.
Bottom scraping does not work.

Interesting post.
Other note. #2 or #3 pitchers have a better chance of working out if they are under 30.
This leads to hope if the Twins sign a pitcher like Marcum or another younger FA Jackson?
Other FA's must have a great track record to be considered.
Trade markets leads to better chances.

johnnydakota
10-20-2012, 01:20 AM
Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.
so if we signed these 2 , then traded span for shields and maybe throw in escobar hernandez and even hermsen to obtain scotty shields then we would have 4 solid pitchers to start with, and i believe ticket sales would once agian take us back over the 3, million mark. making them truely affordible, add in next years tv increase and morny coming off the books why not spend this year and save next year ?

kab21
10-20-2012, 05:21 AM
Intl FA's weren't included because they really aren't comparable to MLB FA's since they don't have any MLB experience. If you included them then Dice-BB would add to the massive failures category while Darvish is a fringe stud although it's too early to tell.

Peavy and Marcum are the two best starters on the market after Greinke. The problem with them is their injury history. They could easily be the next Jason Schmidt who never threw a meaningful pitch for the Dodgers. IF they can be signed for a 3 yr deal and the long term risk is minimized I'm fine (and even like) the idea.

Anibal sanchez is one of the next guys on the list for me since he's younger. I think he's underrated by many. At least he was until the playoffs.

Edwin Jackson is solid and I would be fine if they signed him for 3/30.

old nurse
10-20-2012, 05:25 AM
Both Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum are affordable, if affordable means keeping with 2012 payroll.
so if we signed these 2 , then traded span for shields and maybe throw in escobar hernandez and even hermsen to obtain scotty shields then we would have 4 solid pitchers to start with, and i believe ticket sales would once agian take us back over the 3, million mark. making them truely affordible, add in next years tv increase and morny coming off the books why not spend this year and save next year ?

You make an assumption that the Rays want to trade a stud pitcher for one player and a pile of nothing.