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John Bonnes
09-19-2012, 08:57 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1049-Deep-Starting-Pitching-Market-Is-A-Lucky-Break-For-Twins

Seth Stohs
09-19-2012, 11:01 PM
John, just to warn you... when we meet to discuss F/A salaries, I will probably disagree with you on like 95% of the starting pitchers.

Greinke has Barry Zito contract written all over him. The starting pitcher mark is OK and there are some good arms. There isn't a single arm that doesn't come with a bunch of question marks.

I'd be happy with the Twins going after Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez, but if it's actually going to take those $20M contracts, the Twins need to just say no.

greengoblinrulz
09-19-2012, 11:22 PM
Ive actually been hearing national reports that think this yrs crop is incdedibly thin & overrated ......predicting that Jermemy Guthrie is gonna get 10m/yr type of crop

Lesser Dali
09-19-2012, 11:34 PM
I would be concerned, but I have no doubt the Twins will not make a foolish, big money offer on any of the free agent pitchers. Greinke will get paid, but other than that it would be foolish to offer big yearly money with years attached to it to any of the other FA's. In my opinion, Greinke is worth no more than 3 years at 36M. Although his mental state has leveled off a bit, I still here stories of him being aloof and not being a very good clubhouse guy. This is not an individual I would invest 100M into.

Lesser Dali
09-19-2012, 11:38 PM
Ive actually been hearing national reports that think this yrs crop is incdedibly thin & overrated ......predicting that Jermemy Guthrie is gonna get 10m/yr type of crop

If that is the case - stick with the likes of Deduno, Hendriks, or John Doe and hope for Gibson to enter the scene with some gusto. Jeremy Guthrie at 10M per - Disgraceful!!!

old nurse
09-19-2012, 11:44 PM
Where the twins may benefit from this market is if teams overpay a starter they may have to dump someone for salary, Someone may have to give up a two or a three because they invested too much. With a trade that fills a hole for the other team they will not feel like they lost out.

clutterheart
09-20-2012, 12:47 AM
One thing to note in the GM handbook, the Twins have money to spend with a lot coming off the books this year AND no player on their roster will require a significant investment in the next 3-5 years.

So if they sign a pitcher for 4 years 20 Million, it would not cause them to lose any young superstars on their current roster to FA.

Twins need 2-3 Starting Pitchers & maybe a MI if there is one to be had
1 Staring Pitcher 20 Million a year makes the payroll around 90 Million
1 Starting Pitcher 8 million a year makes the payroll around 98 Million
With a million or two to spend for a decent MI bench player or a flyer on a project makes the payroll around 100 million.

Unless they plan to cut payroll down even further, this team has the long term room to get some decent starting pitchers if they choose to.

Shane Wahl
09-20-2012, 01:02 AM
I am pretty confused by this and the G and G podcast. The latter seemed to indicate that pitchers would be available on one or two year contracts for under 10 million, and some WELL under that.

There is no way that 20 million is thrown at more than a couple pitchers. And then I would expect a big drop.

I guess I would ask for specifics:

Greinke:

A. Sanchez:

Jackson:

E. Santana:

Marcum:

Blanton:


This provides a good range, in my view of the 20 mil vs. the 6-8 mil pitchers. There is no doubt that Boston and New York will try to buy big, but after that? The Angels are done spending, the Dodgers are done spending. Only a few other teams will make ONE big expenditure for somebody. The value in many of these guys drops a lot, though in the G and G podcast is seemed like it would drop in a HUGE way down to the 5 million range.

Shane Wahl
09-20-2012, 01:04 AM
By the way, given that those top two are unreachable, I would love for the Twins to sign any two of the bottom four there. And if all can be had for 2 year contracts, that would be fantastic.

ScottyB
09-20-2012, 02:32 AM
It will be interesting to see where Greinke ends up. He hates the big city spotlight, but will be too expensive for almost everyone but Boston and New York. I wouldn't touch Blanton, his numbers in the NL suck and coming into the AL will inflate even further. He's not worth the $10M he's making now, let alone what the bidding will bloat his salary to. Sanchez is making $8M now, and he's been no better than some of our in-house options since coming over from the NL to the Tigers. I'm very leary of any NL only pitcher coming to the AL. Jackson has a good history no matter the league, but would like to stay put. I think the Nats will accomodate him with a 3-year deal. Which leaves Santana and Marcum. I believe the Angels will pick up Santana's $13M option. Marcum would be a good fit. He had a very good 2010 in Toronto, but I think he will be priced out of the Twins comfort zone. I'm intrigued by Carlos Villanueva and I'd be interested in Brandon McCarthy.

Fire Dan Gladden
09-20-2012, 07:30 AM
If you are an individual that believes the Twins are 2-3 years away from being competitive, how do you feel about the team going out and spending $20-30 mil on FA pitching this offseason? Seems to me you should be upset about the the team throwing money at pitchers when they still aren't close. That being said, what would the opinion be if you felt that way and they didn't spend the money?

I believe they are close. Spending $12-15 mil for 2 mid-level FA pitchers could put them back in the mix (assuming they don't make any of the Span/Morneau trades.)

mike wants wins
09-20-2012, 08:30 AM
If you will not pay market prices, you will not the best players...best meaning those that the market thinks are the best at the time of signing, not after the fact. I expect one middling signing and one flyer, cheap signing, and 85 to 90 losses next year.

LewFordLives
09-20-2012, 08:36 AM
Unfortunately, the Twins aren't the only team in need of starting pitching. While a guy like Marcum might be a good fit for us, he's probably a good fit for 10 other teams as well. I don't expect the Twins to sign any impact pitchers.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-20-2012, 10:02 AM
The Twins won't be able to fix this rotation soley through Free Agency. If they really want to have at least an average rotation heading into next year they need to do the following:

1. Gibson needs to step up by June.
2. They need to trade Span/Morneau/Willingham for a legit high upside arm.
3. They need to find the "Willingham" of SP on the FA market.

I can't see them competing for anyone that has #1/#2 or even high end #3 type stuff on the FA market, much of the burden will fall on shrewd trades or if Gibson/Baker can step up and be a #2 in 2013.

ericchri
09-20-2012, 10:17 AM
You have to be a little leary of any NL pitchers who would be moving over to the AL. The numbers over time back up the fact that pitchers tend to struggle making that move. Smaller ballparks on average, DH instead of pitchers in the lineup. Guys who look pretty good in the NL often don't look so good in the AL. That doesn't just mean an increase in ERA, which is understandable, but also in things that try and account for differences like ERA+, it's common to see pitchers revert some when making that move. Obviously you can find individual cases that made the move successfully, but the trend is well-established to not have as much success.

I'll be curious to see the trend for Target Field long-term as far as hitter-friendliness. First couple years it played big, but it seems it's normalizing a bit this year. But we probably won't really know until another half-dozen years how it's really going to play over time.

Dave T
09-20-2012, 11:35 AM
Most of the Twins' improvement in starting pitching next year will result from our current group of young pitchers doing better with experience. I have high hopes for Gibson -- for 2014. Next year he will be in his first year in the majors, and in his first year back after Tommy John surgery.

kab21
09-20-2012, 11:59 AM
While the SP market is better than most years I am going to disagree that it is really deep.

Good SP'ers
greinke
Sanchez
Marcum
Jackson

the rest are pretty mediocre since Colby Lewis had TJ and McCarthy fractured his skull

The best path imo if you don't go after Greinke or Marcum is to try and get a pair of guys like Villanueva and Baker on shorter term (but not 1 yr) contracts in the 5-7M range.

John Bonnes
09-20-2012, 12:08 PM
John, just to warn you... when we meet to discuss F/A salaries, I will probably disagree with you on like 95% of the starting pitchers.



It was really hard coming up with those numbers. I'm very open for feedback. I'm already starting to modify them a bit.

John Bonnes
09-20-2012, 12:12 PM
I guess I would ask for specifics:

Greinke, A. Sanchez, Jackson, E. Santana, Marcum, Blanton:


This provides a good range, in my view of the 20 mil vs. the 6-8 mil pitchers. There is no doubt that Boston and New York will try to buy big, but after that? The Angels are done spending, the Dodgers are done spending. Only a few other teams will make ONE big expenditure for somebody. The value in many of these guys drops a lot, though in the G and G podcast is seemed like it would drop in a HUGE way down to the 5 million range.

I don't want to publish numbers until the other guys have seen them, I'd say the first three all will get $20M + deals. Santana is one of my $10+ M guys, but could be as high as $20 if he finishes strong. Marcum might get to $10, but may need to do a one-year deal for less. Blanton I'd have in the 6ish range.

Winston Smith
09-20-2012, 12:53 PM
Sanchez has not looked very good in the AL so far he may need to go back to the NL. Santana has neg war and has been really bad. If these guys are going to get north of 7-8 mill a yr that isn't a very good bang for the buck. For the most part all the guys with decent numbers are NL guys and could be big failures in the AL.
I just don't see the list of Starters as deep at all. That's not saying they wouldn't improve our rotation but I don't see many guys that will make a big impact. It's more likely that we pick up a Millwood, Guthrie or Saunders type and resign Pavano, imo.

Seth Stohs
09-20-2012, 01:12 PM
I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

Brock Beauchamp
09-20-2012, 01:23 PM
I think your estimates are way too low, Seth. I think Jackson will get at least 3/$30m. Sanchez will probably get close to the same if he pitches well in his remaining starts (he looked pretty bad with Miami in his final months and struggled with Detroit right off the bat).

DAM DC Twins Fans
09-20-2012, 01:34 PM
This is a deep FA pitching class??? Grienke yes--if he could keep his head together. Sanchez maybe but not having a good time now with Detroit. The rest--you gotta be kidding.

I wouldnt give any of them more than 6mill a year; or 15 mill for 3. They are not youngsters--staying healthy for 3 years is a question for all of them. I have stated on other threads that Jackson (#4 starter here for Nats--yes deep rotation) is overrated. I dont think he is better than Diamond. He may be the best after Greinke.

Twins much better off trading Span/Revere/Morneau (packaged with somebody else) for a good number 2 starter or better yet a high prospect ready to pitch in 2014.

Brock Beauchamp
09-20-2012, 01:41 PM
This is a deep FA pitching class??? Grienke yes--if he could keep his head together. Sanchez maybe but not having a good time now with Detroit. The rest--you gotta be kidding.

I wouldnt give any of them more than 6mill a year; or 15 mill for 3. They are not youngsters--staying healthy for 3 years is a question for all of them. I have stated on other threads that Jackson (#4 starter here for Nats--yes deep rotation) is overrated. I dont think he is better than Diamond. He may be the best after Greinke.

Twins much better off trading Span/Revere/Morneau (packaged with somebody else) for a good number 2 starter or better yet a high prospect ready to pitch in 2014.

Sanchez has actually started to put it together a bit. He has been pitching quite well in September. I'd still be leery of the guy. He was below average for at least two months this season, maybe even three. He was scuffling well before the trade to Detroit.

mike wants wins
09-20-2012, 02:08 PM
Few good pitchers will ever be free agents. Great pitchers, yes, because they are expensive. But good pitchers? Not super likely. If they want good pitchers, they will need to trade.

greengoblinrulz
09-20-2012, 02:31 PM
Rather make a deal for someone like Brandon Morrow than mess around with whom Terry Ryan will chase....jeff francis types

glunn
09-20-2012, 02:46 PM
Another view might be that since 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year anyway, it might be better to focus on trading for prospects who are projected to be ready in 2014 and 2015 rather than paying big bucks for someone who is ready before they are needed.

Winston Smith
09-20-2012, 03:08 PM
Another view might be that since 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year anyway, it might be better to focus on trading for prospects who are projected to be ready in 2014 and 2015 rather than paying big bucks for someone who is ready before they are needed.
I like the long term build with youth way, not sure the band aid approach gets us very far.

JP3700
09-20-2012, 03:11 PM
Surprised no one has even mentioned Jake Peavy. The white sox have already said they aren't going to pick up his option. I don't think the twins should go after him but his being on the market might make a couple of the mid level guys like Jackson, Marcum or Sanchez more affordable/available.

kab21
09-20-2012, 07:24 PM
I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

These numbers are way too low. Sanchez and Jackson are definitely getting 10+M/yr deals and Marcum will probably get 10M/yr if he looks relatively healthy.

Ervin Santana is looking all kinds of awful and there is no reason to be intrigued. Blanton has a long history of sucking in the NL.

Rosterman
09-20-2012, 09:37 PM
Francisco Liriano!

Thrylos
09-20-2012, 09:46 PM
There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

I think that the market is actually thin and the Twins are better of trading Span/Willingham/Morneau/someOFprospects for young projectable MLB-ready arms with 4-6 years of control.

That said:
- I don't think that the Twins will ever give a 4 year deal to a FA pitcher.
- I don't think that any of these guys who are free agents are better than a fixed Baker
- I don't think that any of these guys who are free agents are much better than a good Liriano

The Twins got to go to the root cause of this and look at a different pitching coach for starters.

John Bonnes
09-20-2012, 10:35 PM
I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

Yeah, I think we're going to argue a little bit about the salaries if you think Anibal Sanchez is going to sign at less per year than Carl Pavano did.
I agree on Blanton, though I might go 6.
I don't know about Santana - he's been awful this year but very good the last two. He had a miserable April, and then had his workload cut down in July (tired arm?) and seems to be fixed and effective now. Since July 30, he's had a 3.30 ERA with 46/15 in 57 innings. I don't know if his overall numbers will garner a mutli-year deal or not, but if it does, I think it'll be closer to 3/24 (or even 3/27) than 3/18. (BTW, I like that name, too. But I can't imagine the Twins paying the freight unless the market really drops out.)

John Bonnes
09-20-2012, 10:44 PM
I think that the market is actually thin and the Twins are better of trading Span/Willingham/Morneau/someOFprospects for young projectable MLB-ready arms with 4-6 years of control.

Here was the primary challenge I faced when trying to write this story: defining "thin." I decided to come up with 3 measures of the thinness or thickness of a market:
1. How many $20+ M contracts are signed - these are rare and clearly a sign that a team is investing in a significant pitcher. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 9.
2. How many $10+M contracts are signed - these are either solid guys or very good guys that are getting a one-year deal. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals (beyond the $20+ M) : 4, 3, 4, 2, 1, 6.
3. How many get at least a major league deal. I don't have the exact numbers for these handy, but most years it has been 12-18.

By those 3 measurements, this year's free agent market is going to be better than any of the last five classes in all three categories. I think if you go through the class, that becomes apparent.

So when you say you think the market is "thin" I would be interested in your definition. I'll admit - I struggled to find mine. It might not be right.

Riverbrian
09-20-2012, 11:09 PM
God... I'm hoping that I'm being reasonable with my wish list but I'm prepared for the possibility of not being within reason.

I'd like to see the Twins target one FA and make a real strong push. Overpay if they have to... But pick one and roll the dice.

My choice... if the Rays dont pick up his option. Shields would be the guy in my opinion.

I'd also like the Twins to trade for one young SP with upside ready to be a rookie next year. I don't care who they give up to get this young SP. if it takes Span and someone else... OK... Lets do it.

My choice... Target the Braves and see what it takes to get Terehan.

I'd also like to see the Twins roll the dice on a young rule 5. Put him in the rotation and ride it out.

My choice... No idea... Open to suggestions. Lets see if our scouts can pull out a gem.

Diamond... can make it 4... Baker if he's willing to sign for a smaller contract with larger bonuses could be 5...

Deduno... 5 or 6 depending on Baker... Devries... choice 6 or 7... Hendriks... 7 or 8... Gibson in June or July can be 8 or 9.

Plus take a chance on a Minor League FA or two which I'm sure they will do.

All in All... Not overwhelming but better in my opinion.

kab21
09-20-2012, 11:12 PM
I don't know about Santana - he's been awful this year but very good the last two. He had a miserable April, and then had his workload cut down in July (tired arm?) and seems to be fixed and effective now. Since July 30, he's had a 3.30 ERA with 46/15 in 57 innings. I don't know if his overall numbers will garner a mutli-year deal or not, but if it does, I think it'll be closer to 3/24 (or even 3/27) than 3/18. (BTW, I like that name, too. But I can't imagine the Twins paying the freight unless the market really drops out.)

Since Santana successfully rehabbed and avoided TJ he has been awful, alright, good and awful. If you look closer his FIP has been in the 4-5.00 range (xFIP 4-4.50) during those seasons. Right now his velocity and K's are both going down and he's looking like a prime candidate to be absolutely awful in the future. I don't think he's intriguing at all and he should be avoided at all costs.

Heinie Manush
09-21-2012, 01:18 PM
One thing to note in the GM handbook, the Twins have money to spend with a lot coming off the books this year AND no player on their roster will require a significant investment in the next 3-5 years.

So if they sign a pitcher for 4 years 20 Million, it would not cause them to lose any young superstars on their current roster to FA.

Twins need 2-3 Starting Pitchers & maybe a MI if there is one to be had
1 Staring Pitcher 20 Million a year makes the payroll around 90 Million
1 Starting Pitcher 8 million a year makes the payroll around 98 Million
With a million or two to spend for a decent MI bench player or a flyer on a project makes the payroll around 100 million.

Unless they plan to cut payroll down even further, this team has the long term room to get some decent starting pitchers if they choose to.

We do need a quality MI as well as a quality starter and a solid starter. The thing to remember is that we've got two free agent classes to accomplish this. Sure, things can fall into place and we could make a run in 2013 but the realistic course is to plan for 2014. Turn Span, Morneau and dollars into the above as well as a solid set up man and a replacement in case Plouffe/Parmalee doesn't pan out and we should contend in 2014.

DAM DC Twins Fans
09-21-2012, 02:26 PM
Yes--pick up a mediocre starter (Sheilds?? Peavy??) and maybe overpay him...trade Morneau/Span/Revere for another (younger) starter...go with IF next year of Parmalee, Dozier at 2B, Florimon, Plouffe with Carroll as UT...hope for Gibson/Baker to join Diamond and these 2 pitchers in rotation--with Deduno, Walters, DeVries battling it out in ST for 4 and 5 roles. Trade more at deadline (based on progress of Hicks, Arcia and Sano for 2014).

striker_86
09-21-2012, 04:01 PM
What about Peavy? Sox arent picking up his option....any chance we go after him?

Thrylos
09-21-2012, 05:44 PM
I think that the market is actually thin and the Twins are better of trading Span/Willingham/Morneau/someOFprospects for young projectable MLB-ready arms with 4-6 years of control.

Here was the primary challenge I faced when trying to write this story: defining "thin." I decided to come up with 3 measures of the thinness or thickness of a market:
1. How many $20+ M contracts are signed - these are rare and clearly a sign that a team is investing in a significant pitcher. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 9.
2. How many $10+M contracts are signed - these are either solid guys or very good guys that are getting a one-year deal. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals (beyond the $20+ M) : 4, 3, 4, 2, 1, 6.
3. How many get at least a major league deal. I don't have the exact numbers for these handy, but most years it has been 12-18.

By those 3 measurements, this year's free agent market is going to be better than any of the last five classes in all three categories. I think if you go through the class, that becomes apparent.

So when you say you think the market is "thin" I would be interested in your definition. I'll admit - I struggled to find mine. It might not be right.


My definition of a non-thin market is one that has several number 1 pitchers in a championship team as free agents. This market has a guy who is maybe a number 2 (Greinke) and the rest are lower. Again, I am talking about a championship team, not the Royals of this world. Hamels' extension hurt the market. I just do not see any number ones out there in this market.

Now, as far as $ goes, teams spend. They will spend and they will overspend. If Greinke gets a number 1 type of contract this does not mean that he is an ace...

Thrylos
09-21-2012, 05:49 PM
What about Peavy? Sox arent picking up his option....any chance we go after him?

Are you sure that Peavy is that much better than Baker in the AL?

Career AL numbers:

Peavy: 3.93 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.51 K/BB
Baker: 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB

And Peavy's numbers were all prime career numbers where Baker's include some early career numbers, which make them look worse than Peavy's. Pretty much the same numbers in the AL in their prime years

Oxtung
09-21-2012, 10:10 PM
What about Peavy? Sox arent picking up his option....any chance we go after him?

Are you sure that Peavy is that much better than Baker in the AL?

Career AL numbers:

Peavy: 3.93 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.51 K/BB
Baker: 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB

And Peavy's numbers were all prime career numbers where Baker's include some early career numbers, which make them look worse than Peavy's. Pretty much the same numbers in the AL in their prime years

Their career numbers mean little going into next year. Baker is not even a year removed from TJ surgery and Peavy is going to throw >200 IP.

Brock Beauchamp
09-21-2012, 10:22 PM
The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-21-2012, 11:06 PM
The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.
Amen! I'd say the odds of Baker throwing 150+ IP next year is about the same as Peavy.

As much as people want to get down on their knees for the almighty Jake Peavy all of a sudden, it should be noted that the White Sox have paid 48 million to him thus far for 417 IP of 4.18 ERA ball over three years...yeah... what a god damn workhorse he is!

In comparison the Twins have paid Pavano (who is considered a "meh" signing around these parts") 24 mil for 506 IP of 4.27 ERA ball over the same time period.

So is Peavy really the answer when Pavano has given you better numbers at 50% of the cost?

Oxtung
09-22-2012, 02:10 AM
The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

I'm not saying he is a workhorse or even that the Twins should sign him. My point is that quoting Baker's and Peavy's stats and then implying they are equal pitchers at this point because their statistics are equal is ridiculous. One has a TON of questions after not throwing a pitch in 2012 coming off of TJ surgery and the other has had a very successful season where he is going to pitch over 200 innings.

Brock Beauchamp
09-22-2012, 09:12 AM
The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

I'm not saying he is a workhorse or even that the Twins should sign him. My point is that quoting Baker's and Peavy's stats and then implying they are equal pitchers at this point because their statistics are equal is ridiculous. One has a TON of questions after not throwing a pitch in 2012 coming off of TJ surgery and the other has had a very successful season where he is going to pitch over 200 innings.

Oh, sure. We have no idea what to expect of Baker but we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Peavy (150-200 IP, 4-ish ERA).

The thing is that Baker's ceiling is also what we can expect from Peavy and Baker can be signed for about 1/10th the price. It's a risk but it's a good risk to take.

TopGunn#22
09-22-2012, 10:13 AM
Great Discussion. Always appreciate Bonnes, Seth and Thrylos. Riverbrain made some good points as well. My humble opinion is that our division is so winable on a year to year basis that to think we need to undertake some 5-year rebuilding plan is foolish. We need starting pitching. Lots of other teams do as well. We will have to out-bid several teams to accomplish this.
I like the idea of offering Span as a centerpiece to acquire a good young pitcher. Maybe offer Span to the Nationals in a package for Detwiller and Lombo. Maybe to the Braves for Teherhan and make it a bigger deal and go after Prado. He could solve our 2B problem. Trading for a Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow or James Shields should also be considered. (Once BJ Upton is gone, Rays may be in the market for a CF/Leadoff type guy. I think E. Jackson has proven he can pitch in the A.L If you trade for someone, sign someone like a Jackson or McCarthy and take a flyer on one other SP (not necessarily Baker, but that type of guy, you have a rotation that could compete in the A.L. Central and you simply move Revere to CF and the top of the order and play Parmalee in RF.

jorgenswest
09-22-2012, 12:45 PM
A deeper group of pitchers goes two ways. There will also be more teams losing pitching and in the market.

In this environment, I don't think it is as good for the Twins. with increased competition for free agent pitching, players will have more options. Why would they sign with the Twins? If the terms of the contract are the same, I think there would be at least 20 organizations that would be chosen over the Twins. It might be closer to 28. Objectively, how confident would you be in the Twins chances next year? How much confidence do you have in the pitching coach? the medical staff?

The only way the Twins can persuade them is by overpaying in terms of years or dollars. Doing so will give the Twins the increased risk of a bad contract.

The only way to avoid this is to let the market play out.

It will be frustrating. We will see pitchers sign with other teams. Someone will write that the Twins could have signed "Pitcher X" for 30 mil over 3 years. Why didn't they? They must be cheap. In truth, "Pitcher X" only signs with the Twins if they add a 4th year or 15%.

There is no easy way out of this hole. Giving bad contracts to decline phase pitchers could delay the turn around. I would stay out of the market until the end.

nokomismod
09-24-2012, 01:01 PM
This is a fun discussion. I still think there is enough potential offense for next year to try to make a run.
I like Shields, Jackson, Grienke and others. Oakland might do their once every couple of years purge of pitchers via trade for prospects.
As far as the Twins having a hard time attracting free agents, I don't see that. Maybe it's because I love it here myself. We have a beautiful ball park, an above average core of non diva players (Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit), decent bullpen, great city and state, and attractive women (just ask Ricky Rubio).

Brock Beauchamp
09-24-2012, 01:08 PM
The Twins didn't have difficulty in attracting Willingham and Doumit last offseason and both wanted to extend their contracts mid-season.

I don't think it will be that difficult to attract free agents. Obviously, the players like it here and after a horrible season last year, the Twins pulled down some decent bats on the market.

Rosterman
09-24-2012, 01:22 PM
You can attract players, but the first stop is contract money and second is playing for a winner. 2-3-4 years or more. Or, you wait out and sign people to a one-year.

Brock Beauchamp
09-24-2012, 05:57 PM
You can attract players, but the first stop is contract money and second is playing for a winner. 2-3-4 years or more. Or, you wait out and sign people to a one-year.

The Twins signed Willingham on December 15th. There will be guys willing to sign with the team if JR makes competitive offers. It shouldn't take extra years in most cases.

beckmt
09-24-2012, 11:51 PM
I like Marcum, Shields, and Jackson(though less than the first 2). Guthrie would be good at the correct price 7 mil range. Pitching is always dicy and I would rather trade for younger arms(also a risk, but many small market clubs have excess pitching talent). If the Twins feel they can win this thing next year, they will need to sign or trade for 2 - 3 pitchers. I feel they could be further away from that, but if the front office feels that go for it. Both the Tigers and the White Sox are flawed ballclubs that have had (White Sox) better than expected years. Tigers will also need to change up pitching staff from contact back end to stuff back end(defense issues). That may need pitchers also. Prces are likely to be high, hope the Twins guess right

PseudoSABR
09-25-2012, 02:08 AM
There's not a lot at the top (i.e. Grienke) but the Twins would never be in on top tier guys (or they shouldn't be); but the middle tiers are pretty fat, to the point where someone might fall into affordability. There's old guys like Loshe, Dempster, Millwood, Kuroda, Arroyo who will be attractive to competitors but the Twins will have no interest in. Whether it's Sanchez, Peavy, Marcum, or Jackson, I'd be pretty happy if the Twins signed any to a deal less than 10m per and less than three years. Add the possibility that Floyd, Haren, and Shields could also hit the market, the Twins might be able to pluck a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. One from the McCarthy, Blanton,Saunders, Villaneuva, Young group might be more realistic. And there's also the crazies/projects: Zambrano, Liriano, E-Santana, J-Sanchez, and Dice-K (ha).

In any case, there's far more out there than years past. The Twins have money to spend, and even if they don't compete, they should be in the business of acquiring assets.

tl;dr:
Top Tier - Grienke
Old Tier - Dempster, Kuroda, Millwood, Lohse, Arroyo (Oswalt)
Option Tier - Shields, Floyd, Haren
(Twins affordability begins here-perhaps)
Second Tier - A-Sanchez, Peavy, Marcum, Jackson
Third Tier - McCarthy, Blanton, Saunders
Questions Tier - Chris Young, Villaneuva, Guthrie, Baker, Maholm (option)
Crazy Tier - Liriano, Zambrano, E-Santana, J-Sanchez, (Dice-K)

Nearly all of those guys are better than what the Twins have thrown out there four of five days.

johnnydakota
09-25-2012, 01:51 PM
I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

with tampa wanting to trim payroll and open to trading shields... why not span to tampa?even if we threw in the 2 rejects from chicago hernadez and escober? then add a jackson and sanchez.....plus a pair of quality relievers and a middle infielder and we have a start to the 2013 season,for around 105.000,000

old nurse
12-30-2012, 09:27 PM
This is a deep FA pitching class??? Grienke yes--if he could keep his head together. Sanchez maybe but not having a good time now with Detroit. The rest--you gotta be kidding.

I wouldnt give any of them more than 6mill a year; or 15 mill for 3. They are not youngsters--staying healthy for 3 years is a question for all of them. I have stated on other threads that Jackson (#4 starter here for Nats--yes deep rotation) is overrated. I dont think he is better than Diamond. He may be the best after Greinke.

Twins much better off trading Span/Revere/Morneau (packaged with somebody else) for a good number 2 starter or better yet a high prospect ready to pitch in 2014.

You said it first!