PDA

View Full Version : Electoral Count Prediction Thread



Shane Wahl
09-13-2012, 01:41 AM
This is for the next 7 weeks and for those with an interest in politics. Not in the arguing part in terms of policy, but in the predictive part in terms of electoral votes.

I told my class today first, but you second, the result is going to be 319-219 for Obama.

Swing states for Obama: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire
Swing states for Romney: North Carolina, Virginia

gunnarthor
09-13-2012, 07:30 AM
303-235 for Obama. Romney gets NC, FL.

http://www.270towin.com/ is the fun website for those who didn't already know.

powrwrap
09-13-2012, 04:19 PM
With Ohio not being selected for either side I've got:

Obama 266
Romney 254

In my scenario, whichever way Ohio goes, so goes the Presidency.

I've got Florida, Virgina, NC going to Romney and Wisconsin going Obama. Wisconsin is interesting given the fact that the Gov. Walker recall went the Republicans way, and that Paul Ryan is from that state. I've got Maine splitting 2 electoral votes for each candidate and Nebraska going all in for Romney.

PseudoSABR
09-13-2012, 04:43 PM
It's no fun to predict unless you take some risk. I'll say 358 to 180 in favor Obama. Obama wins all the states from last time save Indiana, and surprises and takes AZ. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I think the election as turned a corner (the Dems convention/Clinton speech, libya scrap, the fed acting today) and the basic fundamentals favor the incumbent. I bet the race isn't nearly as close as MSM would have us believe; I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins by larger margins than he did over McCain (who was a much better candidate than Romney).

Shane Wahl
09-13-2012, 05:02 PM
It's no fun to predict unless you take some risk. I'll say 358 to 180 in favor Obama. Obama wins all the states from last time save Indiana, and surprises and takes AZ. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I think the election as turned a corner (the Dems convention/Clinton speech, libya scrap, the fed acting today) and the basic fundamentals favor the incumbent. I bet the race isn't nearly as close as MSM would have us believe; I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins by larger margins than he did over McCain (who was a much better candidate than Romney).

Well the MSM spends way more time on national polls as though a national poll really says anything.

You may be right, but have you watched Fox News the past two days. It's masochistic, I know, but it is also eye-opening. I have been flabbergasted by how they have spun this and also just blatantly lied. They are doing a masterful job of turning this around for Romney. Those moderates in the middle who are somehow undecided often seem to decide on foreign policy and the wimp narrative is HEAVY along with the apology narrative. It's a spectacle of spin, to be sure, but it might be effective somehow (I spent half an hour going back and forth on Facebook today with someone I didn't even know and he was given three chances to take back his endorsement of "Obama sympathizes with those who waged the attacks" and he wouldn't do it. There might be a lot of people out there like that).

diehardtwinsfan
09-13-2012, 05:42 PM
Obama wins.

fatbeer
09-15-2012, 03:51 PM
It's no fun to predict unless you take some risk. I'll say 358 to 180 in favor Obama. Obama wins all the states from last time save Indiana, and surprises and takes AZ. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I think the election as turned a corner (the Dems convention/Clinton speech, libya scrap, the fed acting today) and the basic fundamentals favor the incumbent. I bet the race isn't nearly as close as MSM would have us believe; I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins by larger margins than he did over McCain (who was a much better candidate than Romney).

Well the MSM spends way more time on national polls as though a national poll really says anything.



Until the first debate is over I go by national polls. I see it right now as obama up 2-3 which would give him a fairly big EC win, but nobody really knows what kind of closer either Obama and Romney are. The 08 election was decided when McCain stood with Obama on the bailout, Obama had a decent lead, but never had to finish the job. Romney has won elections and lost them in one state, a state that he should have lost in everytime. I've seen some debate footage from Mass and he can be real forceful and tough.

After Obama's convention speech I was 100% convinced Romney would win, but Obama's convention bounce still lingers although Rassmunsen is back to about where things were pre conventions (Romney +2). The first debate will decide this thing, given reality it's Romney's to lose. If I had to make a prediction I'd guess Romney wins all current "swing states" plus 1 probably Michigan.

Brock Beauchamp
09-15-2012, 04:14 PM
You may be right, but have you watched Fox News the past two days. It's masochistic, I know, but it is also eye-opening. I have been flabbergasted by how they have spun this and also just blatantly lied. They are doing a masterful job of turning this around for Romney. Those moderates in the middle who are somehow undecided often seem to decide on foreign policy and the wimp narrative is HEAVY along with the apology narrative. It's a spectacle of spin, to be sure, but it might be effective somehow (I spent half an hour going back and forth on Facebook today with someone I didn't even know and he was given three chances to take back his endorsement of "Obama sympathizes with those who waged the attacks" and he wouldn't do it. There might be a lot of people out there like that).

First, few moderates watch Fox News. Second, all Obama has to do at the debate is say "Bin Laden is dead, bitches", drop the mic, and walk off the stage at the first mention of him being soft on terror/foreign matters. The GOP is going to lose badly if they try to play that card on the guy who killed the most notorious terrorist of our lifetimes after "their guy" failed to do it after 6+ years of trying.

biggentleben
09-15-2012, 04:22 PM
Romney wins all current "swing states" plus 1 probably Michigan.

He'll win the state where he just very publicly pulled all of his ads and shut down local campaigning? Interesting theory.

fatbeer
09-15-2012, 04:37 PM
Romney wins all current "swing states" plus 1 probably Michigan.

He'll win the state where he just very publicly pulled all of his ads and shut down local campaigning? Interesting theory.

If the debates swing things then of course, if the debates don't swing things then of course not. Sometimes baseball teams win games after clinching a playoff spot using a triple A #3 starter. I've got it 317-221 Romney if I'm wrong so be it.

Keep in mind polling still fails to show Obama above 50% in Michigan.

fatbeer
09-15-2012, 04:40 PM
You may be right, but have you watched Fox News the past two days. It's masochistic, I know, but it is also eye-opening. I have been flabbergasted by how they have spun this and also just blatantly lied. They are doing a masterful job of turning this around for Romney. Those moderates in the middle who are somehow undecided often seem to decide on foreign policy and the wimp narrative is HEAVY along with the apology narrative. It's a spectacle of spin, to be sure, but it might be effective somehow (I spent half an hour going back and forth on Facebook today with someone I didn't even know and he was given three chances to take back his endorsement of "Obama sympathizes with those who waged the attacks" and he wouldn't do it. There might be a lot of people out there like that).

The GOP is going to lose badly if they try to play that card on the guy who killed the most notorious terrorist of our lifetimes

No members of Seal team 6 are running. It's amazing how Obama and his supporters want to say "I did that, I made that happen".

Brock Beauchamp
09-15-2012, 04:50 PM
The GOP is going to lose badly if they try to play that card on the guy who killed the most notorious terrorist of our lifetimes

No members of Seal team 6 are running. It's amazing how Obama and his supporters want to say "I did that, I made that happen".

Does it matter if he pulled the trigger? He's the guy who made the call to invade the compound and kill bin Laden. Trying to call the President that killed Public Enemy #1 "soft" is not going to play well in the polls with people who aren't completely aligned with one side or the other.

And I'm not even an Obama "supporter". I just think he's a slightly better option than Romney. That's your problem. You refuse to look at the world from any perspective that doesn't fit into your myopic view of things. I'm not a Democrat. I've never been a Democrat. Yet because I don't toe the GOP line, I'm somehow automatically thrown into the "Obama" camp. That's why the Republican Party is not going to win me back any time soon. Hell, I might just vote for Gary Johnson if I suddenly decide that I want to make a statement vote and that Minnesota has zero chance of going for Romney.

If the GOP had been smart enough to attempt attracting moderates and non-insane people by nominating Jon Huntsman, there's about a 75% chance my vote would be going to the Republican Party this November.

fatbeer
09-15-2012, 04:53 PM
The GOP is going to lose badly if they try to play that card on the guy who killed the most notorious terrorist of our lifetimes

No members of Seal team 6 are running. It's amazing how Obama and his supporters want to say "I did that, I made that happen".

Does it matter if he pulled the trigger? He's the guy who made the call to invade the compound and kill bin Laden. Trying to call the President that killed Public Enemy #1 "soft" is not going to play well in the polls with people who aren't completely aligned with one side or the other.

And I'm not even an Obama "supporter". I just think he's a slightly better option than Romney. That's your problem. You refuse to look at the world from any perspective that isn't your own myopic view of the world. I'm not a Democrat. I've never been a Democrat. Yet because I don't toe the GOP line, I'm somehow automatically thrown into the "Obama" camp. That's why the Republican Party is not going to win me back any time soon. Hell, I might just vote for Gary Johnson if I suddenly decide that I want to make a statement vote and that Minnesota has zero chance of going for Romney.

If the GOP had been smart enough to attempt attracting moderates and non-insane people by nominating Jon Huntsman, there's about a 75% chance my vote would be going to the Republican Party this November.

The reason why Obama is president is because the non democrats who pretend they support some Republican ideas gave us McCain and then decided he was a big jerk and they were going to continue to pretend not to be Democrats and vote for obama.

Brock Beauchamp
09-15-2012, 04:57 PM
It's a discussion thread. I will talk about the discussion at hand, whichever direction that conversation may lead. You didn't even start this thread so it's best if you don't start ordering me around.

edit: Nice, you edited your post so you'd look better. Sigh. Good riddance.

fatbeer
09-15-2012, 05:00 PM
It's a discussion thread. I will talk about the discussion at hand, whichever direction that conversation may lead. You didn't even start this thread so it's best if you don't start ordering me around.

For a guy who likes to throw around the word threat you sure are a pathetic loser. That was a personal insult because honestly it applies to you and I'm all about honesty. See you later jackass.

fatbeer
09-15-2012, 05:02 PM
Just don't give to charity thats immoral. Go **** yourself.

Brock Beauchamp
09-15-2012, 05:04 PM
Good night, sweet prince.

Badsmerf
09-15-2012, 08:49 PM
fatbeer, I'm on Brock's side on this. How can you call Obama soft when 1. he killed Osama 2. he pledged to pull out of Afganistan ASAP and went against his own party to keep troops there and pull out gradually 3. hasn't cut a cent on the military budget despite it being the most obviously bloated part of our national expenditures? Its asinine to try and put Obama in a stereotypical Liberal box. One of the things I knew from him being elected is he would think for himself and make decisions he felt were the right decision. I don't think anyone has been let down with that. He is not my ideal candidate by any means, but when you are putting him next to a guy like Romney he looks brilliant. You also knocked McCain. McCain lost because he didn't come out with firm stances that go against the grain of the GOP. Add in a terribly run campaign and he didn't deserve to win. McCain being more of a moderate had little to do with him not getting nominated, despite what Rush says.

TheLeviathan
09-15-2012, 10:00 PM
Well I wouldn't say the military is the most "obviously bloated" part of our budget, that mantra is way overstated by the left. The military budget can and should be cut back, but it's not crippling the country.

But I would agree - McCain didn't lose because he was a moderate, he lost because of how painfully obvious it was he compromised his own values to appeal to the GOP base.

Shane Wahl
09-17-2012, 10:00 PM
Now, after this Romney video with its scathing criticism of 47% of the country as essentially parasites (an Ayn Rand term, I know, but Paul Ryan IS his running mate), I think PseudoSABR might be right with the 358 prediction.

Shane Wahl
09-17-2012, 10:01 PM
A libertarian and a Republican Party puppet walk into the Twins Daily Sports Bar . . .

Frozented9
09-18-2012, 07:36 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=zNU

My prediction

Badsmerf
09-19-2012, 09:19 PM
Damnit. Fatbeer wont ever get the chance to respond to my post. First known meltdown on Twins Daily. We should make a forum section just for meltdown threads.....

Shane Wahl
09-20-2012, 01:23 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

This means perhaps a HUGE win for Obama. I will be curious to see Arizona numbers . . .

glunn
11-17-2012, 03:02 AM
This is for the next 7 weeks and for those with an interest in politics. Not in the arguing part in terms of policy, but in the predictive part in terms of electoral votes.

I told my class today first, but you second, the result is going to be 319-219 for Obama.

Swing states for Obama: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire
Swing states for Romney: North Carolina, Virginia

Your prediction turned out to be the most accurate of all. Nice work.