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View Full Version : Trade Revere, Not Span



YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-06-2012, 03:08 PM
Who else feels the same way? Revere has basically reached his ceiling as a 3 tool player. He isn't as valuable to the Twins as Span is, but could probably fetch something in a trade.

70charger
09-06-2012, 03:11 PM
To me I think it comes down to who gets more value back. With the upcoming core of awesome outfielders - Hicks, Arcia, cross-your-fingers Benson, etc., I think all you really need is a stopgap for 2013. Keep either one, I don't care. Just get rid of the one who gets us pitching in return...

Nick Nelson
09-06-2012, 03:15 PM
Trust me when I say that there is absolutely zero chance of this happening.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-06-2012, 03:19 PM
I guess I like Denard more than Ben. I also feel that Span's end of the season injury should play a role in keeping him.

sorney
09-06-2012, 03:20 PM
I like Span as much as the next guy, and would take him over Revere, but there is no way it makes any sense to trade a cheap alternative to Span, when they need to re-tool an entire pitching staff. Span will fetch them move in a trade then Revere

TK10
09-06-2012, 03:20 PM
I respectfully disagree. I think it's Span who's reached his ceiling. Span is who he is. I think Revere, as he learns to work counts, draw walks and bunt, has a chance to become an elite leadoff hitter. It's not a slam dunk, but he has a chance. Span doesn't. Span isn't an engaging personality either, which with this current team, I think matters. Revere has a chance to become a leader in the club house and a bridge builder with casual fans. I can also see Revere relating to children in a way nobody has since Puckett. There's just something about the guy, in my opinion. I sort of see Revere as a Torii Hunter kind of personality minus the occasional outbursts of anger and selfishness.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-06-2012, 03:26 PM
I respectfully disagree. I think it's Span who's reached his ceiling. Span is who he is. I think Revere, as he learns to work counts, draw walks and bunt, has a chance to become an elite leadoff hitter. It's not a slam dunk, but he has a chance. Span doesn't. Span isn't an engaging personality either, which with this current team, I think matters. Revere has a chance to become a leader in the club house and a bridge builder with casual fans. I can also see Revere relating to children in a way nobody has since Puckett. There's just something about the guy, in my opinion. I sort of see Revere as a Torii Hunter kind of personality minus the occasional outbursts of anger and selfishness.

He has zero power. Not even close to Torii Hunter. I see him as a Juan Pierre comp. and a really good 4th Outfielder. Span has been a better player this season and probably would fetch more. I just see Revere is a block to Hicks and Arcia for some reason as well since all three are young.

ericchri
09-06-2012, 03:26 PM
Trade both. One this offseason and one at next year's deadline. Hicks just profiles as a more complete player than either of those two if he continues to live up to his potential, such that I think he makes a better CF than either. Leave the corners for the guys who can flat-out hit (Willingham, Arcia). Hicks looks to be a better base-stealer with more pop than Span, more plate discipline and a better arm than Revere. Not really inferior in anything to either of them. Again, assuming he continues the play he finally showed this year. Of course he's still only played at AA, so he could flame out, but then we just wait for Buxton while filling in with Benson/Mastroianni.

Twins Twerp
09-06-2012, 03:27 PM
Revere is a much better hitter (for average) than Span. Revere has better baserunning skills and covers more ground than Span. Revere is solid. I would also agree that Span's value is much lower than Revere. Revere's lack of arm strength is super overblown. Span's injury put the cabosh on getting traded. Now look for Mornie and/or the Hammer to get moved this offseason.

Winston Smith
09-06-2012, 03:34 PM
I respectfully disagree. I think it's Span who's reached his ceiling. Span is who he is. I think Revere, as he learns to work counts, draw walks and bunt, has a chance to become an elite leadoff hitter. It's not a slam dunk, but he has a chance. Span doesn't. Span isn't an engaging personality either, which with this current team, I think matters. Revere has a chance to become a leader in the club house and a bridge builder with casual fans. I can also see Revere relating to children in a way nobody has since Puckett. There's just something about the guy, in my opinion. I sort of see Revere as a Torii Hunter kind of personality minus the occasional outbursts of anger and selfishness.

He has zero power. Not even close to Torii Hunter. I see him as a Juan Pierre comp. and a really good 4th Outfielder. Span has been a better player this season and probably would fetch more. I just see Revere is a block to Hicks and Arcia for some reason as well since all three are young.

He was talking about "personality" not power or hitting numbers.

TK10
09-06-2012, 03:35 PM
Sorry, I meant in terms of personality he reminds me of Hunter. Revere and Hunter are obviously radically different players. I'm bothered by how injury prone Span is, too. If Mauer had missed time because he was scared of the MRI machine Twins Territory would have gone ballistic.

JP3700
09-06-2012, 04:58 PM
While I do agree it's unrealistic to trade Revere instead of Span, I do think some people are highly undervaluing Denard's play and overvaluing Ben's.

Denard is the prototypical lead off hitter. He has always been good at getting on base, but more importantly he always sees a lot of pitches while knowing how to foul off pitches if need be. This creates longer innings for pitchers and allows other batters to see what the pitcher is doing. To me, the offense looks completely different when Span is leading off compared to Revere. Span also has good gap to gap power, which Revere obviously has none of. Span was on pace for over 40 doubles and over 50 extra base hits.

Ben will max out at 30 extra base hits on a good year and gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base. Revere will never magically be able to draw more walks and if he does draw a couple more walks his BA will drop to even it out. There is a reason why Revere hits .241 as a lead off hitter and .318 as the number 2 hitter, it's a different animal. Lead off hitters are taught to have a different approach which Span clearly has down. When you ask Revere to take that approach it's like taking the venom away from a snake. Revere is naturally an aggressive hitter. I agree that Revere does bring more speed, has slightly better range and brings a fun personality but Span is by far an overall better player.

wavedog
09-06-2012, 05:11 PM
Agreed - Span is a better hitter. Revere is a better fielder and baserunner. This next statement contradicts what I said about his fielding but with his limited arm strength can we teach Revere to play 2nd base?

The Greatest Poster Alive
09-06-2012, 05:26 PM
I find it pretty amusing that personality is even relevant to this discussion... Maybe if denard smiled more he'd get some respect around here.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2012, 05:32 PM
By the beginning of 2014 hopefully both will have been traded (Benson, Hicks, Arcia)

The Greatest Poster Alive
09-06-2012, 05:36 PM
While I do agree it's unrealistic to trade Revere instead of Span, I do think some people are highly undervaluing Denard's play and overvaluing Ben's.

Denard is the prototypical lead off hitter. He has always been good at getting on base, but more importantly he always sees a lot of pitches while knowing how to foul off pitches if need be. This creates longer innings for pitchers and allows other batters to see what the pitcher is doing. To me, the offense looks completely different when Span is leading off compared to Revere. Span also has good gap to gap power, which Revere obviously has none of. Span was on pace for over 40 doubles and over 50 extra base hits.

Ben will max out at 30 extra base hits on a good year and gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base. Revere will never magically be able to draw more walks and if he does draw a couple more walks his BA will drop to even it out. There is a reason why Revere hits .241 as a lead off hitter and .318 as the number 2 hitter, it's a different animal. Lead off hitters are taught to have a different approach which Span clearly has down. When you ask Revere to take that approach it's like taking the venom away from a snake. Revere is naturally an aggressive hitter. I agree that Revere does bring more speed, has slightly better range and brings a fun personality but Span is by far an overall better player.

Well put. Revere is not a lead off hitter. He's definitely shown more talent than i expected him to, but that still doesn't erase the fact that he can't lead off. The Twins would be lacking a leadoff hitter for the future if they got rid of span. Who anywhere in this organization has a leadoff skill set? I don't see it outside of Span. Some people want to de-emphasize the impact of lineup position on production, but in the case of hitting leadoff, there is a specific skill set that you need to have to succeed at the top of a lineup.

Twins Twerp
09-06-2012, 05:37 PM
Such as getting caught leaning off of 1st base 20 times a season ala span?

Brock Beauchamp
09-06-2012, 05:39 PM
Who anywhere in this organization has a leadoff skill set?

Aaron Hicks.

SydneyTwinsFan
09-06-2012, 05:53 PM
Ben ....... gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base

Doesn't this suggest he would be more effective leading off?

The Greatest Poster Alive
09-06-2012, 06:08 PM
Who anywhere in this organization has a leadoff skill set?

Aaron Hicks.

Definitely overlooked Hicks. He has actually come along pretty nicely now that I checked his stats this year in AA. His MLB ETA would coincide pretty nicely with the end of Denard's contract. Still don't understand the rush to trade this guy unless a legitimate piece to the future is offered. Trading him for a B or lower prospect just doesn't make sense to me.

JP3700
09-06-2012, 06:13 PM
Ben ....... gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base

Doesn't this suggest he would be more effective leading off?

No, because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. He'll always run into slumps which trickles down the line up. Also, there will be situations where the lead off hitter needs to come through with runners on.

Let me ask, if it's the 9th inning 2 outs with a runner on second who would you rather see at the plate? Denard or Ben? Needing a bunt to move a runner over, who would you rather see at the plate? To lead off an inning in a 1 run game, who would you rather see at the plate? I can't think of situations where Denard isn't a more ideal hitter. As I mentioned I think they should trade Denard cause he has much more value but the slight difference between speed and defensive range does not make up the gap in ability at the plate. I like Revere, I'm rooting for him to be successful, but I have always thought he has the ceiling of Juan Pierre offensively and is a 4th OF on a winning team. I do agree that Aaron Hicks is the future, I love his upside.

Rosterman
09-06-2012, 06:13 PM
Okay, this year Revere is a better #2 hitter...well, isn't Mauer always batting third. You see some better pitches. As a lead-off guy, they come at him right out of the gate. He has to improve what he looks at tremendously to hold down the lead-off position. Span, you pretty much know what you've got...except that he has now broken down for the second year. Wouldn't you feel better right now having Span sitting on someone else's bench and a solid pitcher in our rotation? Span had more worth during the trade deadline.In the off-season, he is just another player competing against a slew of free agent outfielders and other trade bait. Now you have to ask the worth of Revere as a trading chip compared to Span. And WiIllingham will still be the guy everyone wants.

Top Gun
09-06-2012, 06:13 PM
Trade any Ofer you can for front line SP.

jimbo92107
09-06-2012, 06:15 PM
Disagree. Trade Span for pitching, keep Revere as lead off. Slap hitter, but he bats .300+, better OPS, excellent base stealer, fast as hell, great glove, and now an adequate, accurate arm. Plus, kids love him.

Meanwhile, you've got a bunch of good-looking prospects bubbling up through the minors. In the top tier you've got Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Dinkelman, Ramirez, Morales, Ortiz, Rams, Ray...and of course Buxton and Max Kepler on the E-Twins. Friends, the Twins system is loaded with outfielders. Unless those guys can throw curve balls for strikes, some of them will wind up traded for pitching.

All that talent coming up makes Denard Span available for trade. In fact, it practically demands a trade, especially with the Twins going through a penny pinching era.

JP3700
09-06-2012, 06:45 PM
Okay, this year Revere is a better #2 hitter...well, isn't Mauer always batting third. You see some better pitches. As a lead-off guy, they come at him right out of the gate. He has to improve what he looks at tremendously to hold down the lead-off position. Span, you pretty much know what you've got...except that he has now broken down for the second year.

So with your theory, Span would be a .350+ hitter with Mauer hitting behind him :). You're right about knowing what we have with Span, a .360 OBP lead off hitter that can hit for 40+ doubles, steal 20 bases and play a good center field. And on him "breaking down", he hurt himself hustling for an extra base and making a spectacular catch for his team, he didn't mysteriously break down. He has flaws, mainly his baserunning but people don't point out the times where Ben fails to get a bunt down to move a runner over at crucial times in games. I just don't understand why people are so down on him, he's been a great player for us, and will be a great player for another team, probably next year.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-06-2012, 07:49 PM
Sorry, I meant in terms of personality he reminds me of Hunter. Revere and Hunter are obviously radically different players. I'm bothered by how injury prone Span is, too. If Mauer had missed time because he was scared of the MRI machine Twins Territory would have gone ballistic.

Actually my fault. My mind blanked at that part I guess.

TK10
09-06-2012, 07:55 PM
I certainly wouldn't argue that personality trumps talent but I do think it matters. This is a team badly in need of some exuberance and leadership. You have a lot of really good guys on this roster but those same guys are very low key and quiet.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-06-2012, 07:56 PM
In terms of personality, I really like Span's competitive edge and he is possibly the 'nicest' guy on the team. Revere is just too happy go lucky. Revere's defense is a little overrated. He only has a .6 dWar. Ben doesn't even eclipse a .700 OPS.

TK10
09-06-2012, 08:33 PM
I know Span doesn't make a ton of money but what if TR says to himself: "I can put Revere in center and not lose much and then if I flip Morneau and Span $20 million comes off the books and I can make a sincere run at Greinke." Would you essentially trade Morneau and Span for Greinke? I'm not a great sabermetrics mind (my two-year old probably gets sabermetrics better than I do) but I think at first blush I'd make that trade.

The Greatest Poster Alive
09-06-2012, 09:01 PM
I know Span doesn't make a ton of money but what if TR says to himself: "I can put Revere in center and not lose much and then if I flip Morneau and Span $20 million comes off the books and I can make a sincere run at Greinke." Would you essentially trade Morneau and Span for Greinke? I'm not a great sabermetrics mind (my two-year old probably gets sabermetrics better than I do) but I think at first blush I'd make that trade.

The more I've thought about it, the less I like Grienke.

#1. His numbers are no longer elite. An ERA a little under 4 and a little under a K per inning is elite compared to this squad... but relative to the money and years a 28 year old pitcher who has been in the majors since 2004... I don't like that risk.

#2. If he signs with the Twins it means we overpaid. By a mile.

#3 Why would he want to sign here? It makes little sense for a pitcher who will write his own ticket in free agency to pick a team that lost 90+games 2 years running... Hell if he signed here I think it would be a sign that he has no competitive spirit... and would rather just stay out of big pressure games.

The Twins need to make a serious run at fixing this rotation... but I don't think it should be Grienke.

beckmt
09-06-2012, 09:07 PM
In terms of return Span will probably bring a B prospect, Revere would bring very little until he proves himself again next year Revere will be viewed as a Juan Pierre, value, but not going to bring a good pitching prospect in return. Span could be bring more, but paired with a Parmalee could bring a solid B or more from the clubs looking for hitting (read Tampa Bay and Seattle). Oakland may also fit in this class, but they look more solid than the prior two clubs.
FA pitchers are going to be expensive. I expect New York and Boston to both be looking among other clubs. This will probably make the market price higher than the Twins or other small to mid market teams will want to pay, so trades will be the only way.
Span is due back in mid September and I hope he finishes well, otherwise the Twins will be left with the choice of trading Willingham for pitching or waiting until spring training, that would not be a good way to go.

TK10
09-06-2012, 09:11 PM
I've always thought that because of his anxiety disorder this market might be ideal for him. I would think NY or Boston might eat him alive. Somebody else brought up Marcum maybe he'd be a better fit than Greinke. I think I'm on an island with this one but I'd try to leverage either Span or Morneau in a deal for Vogelsong from the Giants. SF has needs thanks to the Melky debacle and the fact that Belt is still a question mark.

Riverbrian
09-06-2012, 11:19 PM
A. Of the players mentioned... Span... Revere... Hicks... Arcia... Only one has proven himself. That is Span. I got a good gut feeling about Arcia... My gut says he will be special but until he does it in the majors we can't really boot Span or Revere out... Hicks finally had a encouraging year.... I really hope that continues and he is a monster but he's hasn't proven anything yet... I'm hopeful... Revere has done a great job and he's a freeking ballplayer but he's young and needs to continue doing it... He has earned the right to keep doing it. Span is the only one that has proven anything.

B. Saying Span has more power is like saying the 5-3 guy is taller than the 5-1 guy. Yeah he's taller but he ain't tall and a young 5-1 guy has the chance to grow to 5-3 or 5-6. You can't say it won't happen and you can't say it will.

C. I keep reading this Juan Pierre Comp and it always seems to be phrased in a negative way. Why is it negative? What is wrong with Juan Pierre. 12 year career... 9 seasons of 600 AB's... .296 career average... 586 stolen bases. He was traded in 2005 for 3 pitchers including Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto who was the Cubs Minor league pitcher of the year in 2004. He's been a starter almost his entire career. The only exception was his last two years with the Dodgers after they acquired Manny. If Ben Revere turns out to be a Juan Pierre. I'd be thrilled and if he does... Hicks and Arcia will have to do extremely well to take his spot.

D. Ben is my favorite Twins player right now and I've always liked Span. I would still trade both of them for pitching. We need pitching.

Shane Wahl
09-07-2012, 12:09 AM
Trade both. One this offseason and one at next year's deadline. Hicks just profiles as a more complete player than either of those two if he continues to live up to his potential, such that I think he makes a better CF than either. Leave the corners for the guys who can flat-out hit (Willingham, Arcia). Hicks looks to be a better base-stealer with more pop than Span, more plate discipline and a better arm than Revere. Not really inferior in anything to either of them. Again, assuming he continues the play he finally showed this year. Of course he's still only played at AA, so he could flame out, but then we just wait for Buxton while filling in with Benson/Mastroianni.

Boom. Very true. I do actually think that a Span-Benson-Hicks outfield would be optimal, but I don't want both Willingham and Arcia to be traded. Clearly there are big questions about Benson now anyway. A Willingham-Revere-Hicks outfield is pretty good (with Arcia DHing quite a bit, but also Willingham as well). I do think that trading Willingham at the deadline is a good option if (assuming Span or Revere is traded) if if all three of Benson, Hicks, and Arcia are ready. I would love to see 2013 end with a "youth movement."

Shane Wahl
09-07-2012, 12:12 AM
A. Of the players mentioned... Span... Revere... Hicks... Arcia... Only one has proven himself. That is Span. I got a good gut feeling about Arcia... My gut says he will be special but until he does it in the majors we can't really boot Span or Revere out... Hicks finally had a encouraging year.... I really hope that continues and he is a monster but he's hasn't proven anything yet... I'm hopeful... Revere has done a great job and he's a freeking ballplayer but he's young and needs to continue doing it... He has earned the right to keep doing it. Span is the only one that has proven anything.

B. Saying Span has more power is like saying the 5-3 guy is taller than the 5-1 guy. Yeah he's taller but he ain't tall and a young 5-1 guy has the chance to grow to 5-3 or 5-6. You can't say it won't happen and you can't say it will.

C. I keep reading this Juan Pierre Comp and it always seems to be phrased in a negative way. Why is it negative? What is wrong with Juan Pierre. 12 year career... 9 seasons of 600 AB's... .296 career average... 586 stolen bases. He was traded in 2005 for 3 pitchers including Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto who was the Cubs Minor league pitcher of the year in 2004. He's been a starter almost his entire career. The only exception was his last two years with the Dodgers after they acquired Manny. If Ben Revere turns out to be a Juan Pierre. I'd be thrilled and if he does... Hicks and Arcia will have to do extremely well to take his spot.

D. Ben is my favorite Twins player right now and I've always liked Span. I would still trade both of them for pitching. We need pitching.

Another great post. I agree with all of it and am equally perplexed by the Juan Pierre comp being a negative thing . . .

Shane Wahl
09-07-2012, 12:19 AM
The best case scenario, in my view, is getting a flip-flop of Willingham and Revere defensively. And keeping all three OFs until it is truly time for Hicks and Arcia (and hopefully Benson). That time is not here quite yet. I am scared, however, that Span will be traded, Morneau kept, and Parmelee made into a right fielder. So preposterous. Parmelee has no future in the OF.

CDog
09-07-2012, 01:11 AM
Such as getting caught leaning off of 1st base 20 times a season ala span?

Baseball Reference has Span getting picked off 4 times in 2011. Revere 6. Revere had about 1.5 times as many opportunities. Not sure if those are accurate. I think Span's pickoffs happened in a bunch that made them stand out more. For the record, this year Revere "leads" 4 pickoffs to 3 (while also stealing more than twice as many and getting caught only about the same).

Cody Christie
09-07-2012, 07:28 AM
Since Revere is a cheaper option and will be under team control for a longer period, it seems like he will be around longer. Span is getting older and his performance will start to go the wrong way in the coming years. Hicks will be up by the end of next season to take over an outfield spot.

kirbyelway
09-07-2012, 07:38 AM
I have a feeling Denard's trade vaue isn't as high as it once was. He is looking like a player who is a little fragile (I know he can't help the concussion issue). I think Revere is only going to get better and you can't teach speed. He should be the CF anyway, even with a healthy Span.

Brock Beauchamp
09-07-2012, 07:51 AM
Definitely overlooked Hicks. He has actually come along pretty nicely now that I checked his stats this year in AA. His MLB ETA would coincide pretty nicely with the end of Denard's contract. Still don't understand the rush to trade this guy unless a legitimate piece to the future is offered. Trading him for a B or lower prospect just doesn't make sense to me.

I'm not against trading him for a B prospect if the team also pulls in a raw guy with good upside in the low minors. It all depends on the package. If it's only a B prospect, no thanks. I'd pass. The team doesn't need to trade Denard but it is a good idea considering the dearth of pitching in the system.

Riverbrian
09-07-2012, 09:57 AM
Ben ....... gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base

Doesn't this suggest he would be more effective leading off?

No, because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. He'll always run into slumps which trickles down the line up. Also, there will be situations where the lead off hitter needs to come through with runners on.

Let me ask, if it's the 9th inning 2 outs with a runner on second who would you rather see at the plate? Denard or Ben? Needing a bunt to move a runner over, who would you rather see at the plate? To lead off an inning in a 1 run game, who would you rather see at the plate? I can't think of situations where Denard isn't a more ideal hitter. As I mentioned I think they should trade Denard cause he has much more value but the slight difference between speed and defensive range does not make up the gap in ability at the plate. I like Revere, I'm rooting for him to be successful, but I have always thought he has the ceiling of Juan Pierre offensively and is a 4th OF on a winning team. I do agree that Aaron Hicks is the future, I love his upside.

You got that backwards... The ability to get an infield hit keeps you out of slumps. Slumps come when you stop making solid contact for a stretch. The ability to beat out an infield hit keeps you somewhat productive through those times. The infield hit doesn't make you more prone to slumps... It is the exact opposite.

Span is a better leadoff hitter because he does a better job working the count and drawing a walk. Revere is better in the two spot because when he reaches base he's a baserunning distraction for the pitcher which is a real benefit for Joe Mauer hitting after.

Hitting leadoff is only guarenteed in the 1st inning. If Denard Span makes the last out in the 3rd inning... Ben Revere will be leading off in the 4th.

Two outs runner on 2nd... I'll take Ben because he has a higher batting average and makes better contact. We don't need a double or walk in that situation.

Needing a bunt to move a runner over.... I rarely see Denard Bunt. I'm not sure... I'd hope that Willingham can get a bunt down if it's that needed.

Leading off an inning down a run in the ninth... I'd go with Span here but Revere doesn't scare me at all.

The Gap at the plate isn't that large and the Gap in the Field isn't that large.

DAM DC Twins Fans
09-07-2012, 10:19 AM
Trade any Ofer you can for front line SP.

Amen to that. Add Morneau and Doumit to list.

Trade whomever will bring in starting pitching or a good 2B. The only ones I would not trade are the young ones (Benson, Parmalee, Hicks, etc.)

TK10
09-07-2012, 10:48 AM
At some point, probably much sooner rather than later, don't you have to get rid of either Span or Revere to clear the log jam that's about to emerge in the OF? If it's me, I'd rather trade the guy who will turn 29 before next season, is hurt all the time and pouts at the mere suggestion the Twins might be better if he moved to right so Revere could play center.

joeboo_22
09-07-2012, 11:56 AM
don't trade for a middle infielder, I feel that is stupid. Because the type of middle infielders the Twins would target in a trade, are just more expensive versions of what they can find in AAA. (not much)

The reason you trade Span over Revere, is A. more value, B. in an OF lineup with Parmelee and Willingham, Revere is the better CF, because he covers more ground. And C age, Span is 4 years older, which means if every year you hold on you are probably going to lose value. Whereas Revere you don't, you can hold onto him for 2-3 years and still retain the same value, or even gain more.

An OFer needs to be traded, and I'd actually say 2 if they plan on using Parmelee in the OF. Revere is cheaper, and is not at the peak of his value like Span.

ashburyjohn
09-07-2012, 12:16 PM
Revere is cheaper, and is not at the peak of his value like Span.

If you are an opposing GM who wants an outfielder, why would you not make the same assessment, and offer less in trade for Span than you would for Revere?

StormJH1
09-07-2012, 12:33 PM
My thoughts on Revere have evolved a little bit as he's continued to evolve as a ballplayer. But make no mistake - we're seeing basically what his ceiling is already. His defensive range is very good, and it's not going to get any better. His arm keeps him from being a true elite defender, because baserunners round 2nd base at will on him when he's in RF, or even on a deep hit single to CF.

As for his offense, he is very good at making contact when he swings, and his speed is going to make him more likely to beat out grounders than, say, Joe Mauer. But that's really where it ends for him. Juan Pierre is a great comparison - guy with CRAZY elite speed and a left handed bat that several teams tried to make into a leadoff hitter. Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter because of (a) the absolute lack of power; and (b) the inability to take a lot of walks when pitchers aren't afraid to go right after you. Once you're in the majors, (b) is the result of (a). It doesn't really matter if he has a great eye or not. Even in Mauer's case, while he certainly could be a more powerful hitter, pitchers do have in the back of their head that a meatball could end up being a double in the gap, or possibly even a homerun.

Still, I think you have to keep Revere over Span because he's younger, cheaper, and more durable, and Span is never going to step it up for a career year where he plays 150+ games going forward. Unfortunately, I think other teams have figured that out also, but if you can get somebody to pick up that contract and give us anything useful in return, I really don't think Span's presence helps us in this lineup when Revere is an available alternative.

JP3700
09-07-2012, 12:36 PM
You got that backwards... The ability to get an infield hit keeps you out of slumps. Slumps come when you stop making solid contact for a stretch. The ability to beat out an infield hit keeps you somewhat productive through those times. The infield hit doesn't make you more prone to slumps... It is the exact opposite.

Span is a better leadoff hitter because he does a better job working the count and drawing a walk. Revere is better in the two spot because when he reaches base he's a baserunning distraction for the pitcher which is a real benefit for Joe Mauer hitting after.

Hitting leadoff is only guarenteed in the 1st inning. If Denard Span makes the last out in the 3rd inning... Ben Revere will be leading off in the 4th.

Two outs runner on 2nd... I'll take Ben because he has a higher batting average and makes better contact. We don't need a double or walk in that situation.

Needing a bunt to move a runner over.... I rarely see Denard Bunt. I'm not sure... I'd hope that Willingham can get a bunt down if it's that needed.

Leading off an inning down a run in the ninth... I'd go with Span here but Revere doesn't scare me at all.

The Gap at the plate isn't that large and the Gap in the Field isn't that large.

If that is the case why is it that Ben has had huge slumps in back to back years? It's because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. You're right about making solid contact, but Ben doesn't consistently do that, contact yes, but not "solid".

With a runner on second, You would take Ben because he has a higher BA? It's a .013 difference in BA this season and steadily declining. Denard has been a consistent hitter throughout his career and has a higher career BA with a much larger sample size. He is also more likely to get the ball out of the infield.

As far as bunting, Denard is terrific at getting a bunt down when he needs to, either direction, although he's especially good at the drag bunt. I guess you don't remember those games this season where Ben popped up bunts late in the game where they needed to move a runner over, or maybe it's selective memory like the myth that Ben doesn't get picked off.

I like both players, but I don't like the way people bash Denard. I'm just trying to point out his strengths, unfortunately I have to point out Ben's weaknesses. I have agreed from the beginning I would trade Denard first, but don't tell me there isn't currently a huge gap at the plate, cause the numbers and more importantly my eyes tell me otherwise. This obviously might change with Denard aging and hopefully Ben developing.

Willihammer
09-07-2012, 12:55 PM
Here is another possible comp: Bret Gardner. 9 HRs in 1700 minor league PAs (5 in low-A) to 5 for Revere (same PAs). Revere drew half as many walks, but struck out half as much. .776 OPS to Revere's .787. 157 SBs to 160. At the MLB level, Gardner saves better than 30 runs/year playing LF. Revere (small samples) saves 15 runs/150 games, playing all positions. However the Yankees didn't give Gardner full time duty till he was 26 years old. He is 29 now and his window for elite speed is about to close. Speed doesn't age as well as power. And Span will be 29 next spring. Revere will be 25, his window for elite speed is wide open for the next 4-5 years.

greengoblinrulz
09-07-2012, 01:02 PM
Trade both. One this offseason and one at next year's deadline. Hicks just profiles as a more complete player than either of those two if he continues to live up to his potential, such that I think he makes a better CF than either. Leave the corners for the guys who can flat-out hit (Willingham, Arcia). Hicks looks to be a better base-stealer with more pop than Span, more plate discipline and a better arm than Revere. Not really inferior in anything to either of them. Again, assuming he continues the play he finally showed this year. Of course he's still only played at AA, so he could flame out, but then we just wait for Buxton while filling in with Benson/Mastroianni.

This 100%
If they want to hold onto Revere as a 4th OF type, then deal only Span but Gardy isnt the type to handle this correctly.
Go with the talent & that is Hicks ASAP. IF they want to start the year with Hicks in AAA, CF can start out with Mastro out there for the first month or 2 till this cheap organizaiton calls him up

Riverbrian
09-07-2012, 01:47 PM
You got that backwards... The ability to get an infield hit keeps you out of slumps. Slumps come when you stop making solid contact for a stretch. The ability to beat out an infield hit keeps you somewhat productive through those times. The infield hit doesn't make you more prone to slumps... It is the exact opposite.

Span is a better leadoff hitter because he does a better job working the count and drawing a walk. Revere is better in the two spot because when he reaches base he's a baserunning distraction for the pitcher which is a real benefit for Joe Mauer hitting after.

Hitting leadoff is only guarenteed in the 1st inning. If Denard Span makes the last out in the 3rd inning... Ben Revere will be leading off in the 4th.

Two outs runner on 2nd... I'll take Ben because he has a higher batting average and makes better contact. We don't need a double or walk in that situation.

Needing a bunt to move a runner over.... I rarely see Denard Bunt. I'm not sure... I'd hope that Willingham can get a bunt down if it's that needed.

Leading off an inning down a run in the ninth... I'd go with Span here but Revere doesn't scare me at all.

The Gap at the plate isn't that large and the Gap in the Field isn't that large.

If that is the case why is it that Ben has had huge slumps in back to back years? It's because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. You're right about making solid contact, but Ben doesn't consistently do that, contact yes, but not "solid".

With a runner on second, You would take Ben because he has a higher BA? It's a .013 difference in BA this season and steadily declining. Denard has been a consistent hitter throughout his career and has a higher career BA with a much larger sample size. He is also more likely to get the ball out of the infield.

As far as bunting, Denard is terrific at getting a bunt down when he needs to, either direction, although he's especially good at the drag bunt. I guess you don't remember those games this season where Ben popped up bunts late in the game where they needed to move a runner over, or maybe it's selective memory like the myth that Ben doesn't get picked off.

I like both players, but I don't like the way people bash Denard. I'm just trying to point out his strengths, unfortunately I have to point out Ben's weaknesses. I have agreed from the beginning I would trade Denard first, but don't tell me there isn't currently a huge gap at the plate, cause the numbers and more importantly my eyes tell me otherwise. This obviously might change with Denard aging and hopefully Ben developing.

All players slump and slump hard at times. For a variety of reasons. If they didn't... The .400 hitter would be a lot more normal. I just can't go along with the assertion that bloops and infield hits make you more prone to slumps.

You can't say Ben slumps more than others. If Ben slumps harder than others... You would have to also say that he gets hotter than others as well because his average is higher than others. Nothing like a hot player.

I contend his ability to leg one out is a plus during a slump stretch. Seems logical to me.

To me it's not worth discussing who you want up with a runner on 2nd... Down by a run and two outs. I'm OK with both of them. I picked Ben over Denard by a hair and it was batting average based. Not just this year but throughout their careers. In that situation... I'll take the higher batting average. Even if it's slight... Ultimately... I want the guy who is hotter at that point in time. Some days it will be Ben and some days it will be Denard. Although the experience factor would give the edge to Span I suppose. If we are down by two... I'll take Span but I'm probably pinch hitting for both and trotting up Jack Cust.

Bunts... The team doesn't do a lot of bunting. Is Span better? I have no idea... If the situation arises... I'd want all of them to get a bunt down. As for Ben popping up a bunt or two. Yeah... And he's gotten bunts down. I'd put down the branding iron. Not enough bunting happening to draw a complete picture.

Personally... I don't like bunting unless you are dragging for a hit. Bunts are such a rare thing that it's barely a factor.

I don't think it's necessary to bash either player. Span is a great hitter. So is Ben... Neither of them are blessed with power and both can run and both play great defense and neither have good arms. Denard is more valuable because he is experienced... Ben is more valuable because he is young.

The reason to trade either of them is for Pitching. We need pitching... If Ben fetches a better pitcher than he's the guy to trade. I'm guessing Span has more value but I'm only guessing. If we don't get decent pitching in return..l see no reason to trade either of them. They are both fine players and we really don't know what we have on Arcia and Hicks yet. Bird in hand... Two in the Bush.

ashburyjohn
09-07-2012, 01:51 PM
Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter

I'm with you mostly when it comes to OPS from a team perspective. However, if you are careful, you can get a lot of value from a table-setter or two who brings only a stellar OBP to the table. A .700 OPS like Pierre could be acceptable if it comes from .350 OBP.

But fill up your roster with too many table-setters, and you end up with, well, some of the troubles we saw the Twins go through this year, where it takes 3 hits/walks to score a run while more powerful lineups get the job done with 2 successful plate appearances or even just one. Even worse is when you have a couple of guys in the lineup such as Carroll and Casilla whose upside is only as table-setter but can't even really achieve that.

Anyway, with Span still on the team there is not need for much more in the way of pure table-setting. But if he's gone next year there is room for someone with Revere's ceiling as a hitter, if he can improve his walk rate.

Riverbrian
09-07-2012, 02:49 PM
Juan Pierre is a great comparison - guy with CRAZY elite speed and a left handed bat that several teams tried to make into a leadoff hitter. Yet, despite a career .296 average, he's basically a .700 OPS hitter because of (a) the absolute lack of power; and (b) the inability to take a lot of walks when pitchers aren't afraid to go right after you. Once you're in the majors, (b) is the result of (a). It doesn't really matter if he has a great eye or not. Even in Mauer's case, while he certainly could be a more powerful hitter, pitchers do have in the back of their head that a meatball could end up being a double in the gap, or possibly even a homerun.

.

I'm not sure if this is a pro or con statement about Juan Pierre.

If it's Pro... I Agree... The Numbers look great to me.

If it's Con. Not everyone can be Ryan Braun and besides Ryan Braun type players cost a lot of money. Very few teams can afford a lineup filled with Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano. The Big OPS Guys cost a lot of money.

I believe a winning baseball team is a balanced team. You need Speed and You need Power... You need Pitching and Defense and the guy who can get a key hit or simply move runners over. You need to manufacture a run on occasion and you need a guy who can swat a three run homer every once in awhile. You need the Big Stars and lesser names hungry for recognition and a future. It's balance... It's all about not making outs on Offense and Making outs on Defense. Neglect one area and you will most likely struggle.

I've seen teams that have loaded up on the Power Bats and Failed. Raise your hand if the Dombroski built 2008 Tigers scared ya a little. It didn't work and the Tigers were looking for balance the next year.

Juan Pierre can play for my team.

The Twins balance is off because of the Pitching and overall depth. We are gonna have to get some pitching. If it costs us some offense. So be it. We have to restore some balance.

TK10
09-07-2012, 03:35 PM
I'm puzzled by a lot of derisive comments comparing Revere to Juan Pierre as a way of arguing the Twins should ditch Revere before Span. Juan Pierre is a better player than Denard Span will ever be. Pierre has 2,100 career hits and could end his career in the neighborhood of 2,500. If Ben Revere has Juan Pierre's career he should be very grateful.

Brock Beauchamp
09-07-2012, 03:51 PM
I'm puzzled by a lot of derisive comments comparing Revere to Juan Pierre as a way of arguing the Twins should ditch Revere before Span. Juan Pierre is a better player than Denard Span will ever be. Pierre has 2,100 career hits and could end his career in the neighborhood of 2,500. If Ben Revere has Juan Pierre's career he should be very grateful.

Juan Pierre, 13 seasons, 14.7 WAR.

Denard Span, 5 seasons, 15.6 WAR.

Denard Span is a better player than Pierre. He's a CF (Pierre stopped playing center at age 29), will take a walk, and has a career average only .011 below Pierre. The only thing Pierre did better than Span was steal bases.

nokomismod
09-07-2012, 04:32 PM
I will be really happy if Span or Revere have the career that Pierre has had. I think Revere is more valuab
I'm worried the Denard is starting to break down. Because of that I would trade Span, and go with Revere until the young prospects prove they are ready.
I am also wondering if Span has somehow put himself into either Gardenhire's or Ryan's doghouse. Anyone have insight on that?

killertwinsfan
09-07-2012, 04:39 PM
Acctaully Revere has nearly double the UZR span has and is a much better base stealer. you also have to factor in that he is younger

JP3700
09-07-2012, 05:02 PM
Why do people keep saying Span is breaking down? He's played in 108 out of 137 games this year. A lot of those were days off and another 2 weeks were wasted trying to play through an injury he sustained while making a great catch for his team, when he could have been getting treatment and rehabbing. This is his first stint on the DL this year. His concussion last year was on a play where he was trying to score a run, once again, for his team! This was his 5th year in the league not his 15th, the guy has plenty of baseball left. Maybe from now on he shouldn't dive for balls in the outfield and pull up before he has a collision at the plate. Then maybe he'll get some respect for his play and not be called "fragile".

greengoblinrulz
09-07-2012, 06:03 PM
There just isnt anything that Span does well. He's decent at alot of things. Not a starter anymore on a .500+ team (why he can start here).
Get rid of him while he's still decent at certain things before those start to fail him.
Revere is only as good as his BAve. Hit .260 not worth starting.... hit .300 decent starter....hit .325 a starter. Classic 4th OF who's GM is not a fan of him but his manager thinks is an everyday player cause he's stuck in 70s/80s era baseball (bat leadoff is you steal bases etc)
Hicks shows star potential....something neither guy showed in minors. Dont fight Aaron being the CF of future as Gardy will

YourHouseIsMyHouse
09-07-2012, 09:11 PM
Span, Willingham, Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee, Benson, etc. There are just too many players that will be better options than Revere that it makes sense to sell on him high. I just don't like the way some see Revere as a staple for the next few years.

TK10
09-07-2012, 11:13 PM
Pierre has four 200+ hit seasons and another season with 196 and has 40+ steals 12 times. Span can't carry Pierre's jock.

kab21
09-08-2012, 03:07 AM
I would like to say trade both but I don't think you're going to get what you want for either of them. Span missed a lot time this season (contrary to the recent post) and likely would have minimal trade interest. I'm also not sure that Revere has a lot of value either. It's possible that a team like the braves match up perfectly if Bourn leaves and there could be a pitcher/OF'er swap but I think it's pretty likely that both OF'ers return next season because of a limited trade market.

In an ideal world the Twins would be able to trade both Willingham and span for a decent set of prospects hopefully including pitchers. And since it looks like Willingham is going to finish the season strong I would put him on the block this offseason and next July.