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View Full Version : Last night's lineup for the Twins could be starting lineup for next season



nokomismod
09-05-2012, 09:39 AM
How would you all feel about trotting out last night's starting lineup (with Hammer and Doumit flip flopped) next year on a consistent basis? If we trade Span, and go with Parmalee and Hammer in the outfield, and then solid middle infield defense with some combo of Carrol, Florimon, Escobar. If Parmalee continues to hit well, and Morneau is closer to his old self next year, I like it for 2013.

Shane Wahl
09-05-2012, 09:47 AM
How would you all feel about trotting out last night's starting lineup (with Hammer and Doumit flip flopped) next year on a consistent basis? If we trade Span, and go with Parmalee and Hammer in the outfield, and then solid middle infield defense with some combo of Carrol, Florimon, Escobar. If Parmalee continues to hit well, and Morneau is closer to his old self next year, I like it for 2013.

I don't like it. First, that OF will not be good defensively. Poor range in two spots and average-to-poor arms all over.

I also wouldn't get to excited about Escobar. He has no track record of offensive skill.

nokomismod
09-05-2012, 09:55 AM
I agree the corner OF spots lack speed (really slow), but they both have decent arms in my opinion. I was pleasantly suprised with a throw Parmalee made the other night.
I would be satisfied with Florimon or Escobar at SS if either could hit 240-260.

Top Gun
09-05-2012, 09:58 AM
I will take 18 runs a game.

birdwatcher
09-05-2012, 10:19 AM
I'm with Top Gun. This lineup should score roughly 18 runs per game, which is enough to get us over .500 for the year. One caveat is that whatchamacallit, that sample size thingy.

Mr. Ed
09-05-2012, 10:21 AM
Look for Florimon/Escobar to play some games at SS/2B respectively as well.

nicksaviking
09-05-2012, 10:39 AM
Not a fan of Escobar, even as a utility infielder people are going to get tired of the lack of offense very quickly.

I also wasn't a fan of Parmelee and Willingham both in the OF, but truthfully Parmelee hasn't looked as uncomforable as he did when they put him in RF early in the year. RF at Target Field also really doesn't benefit a guy with a ton of range. Parmelee and Willingham together in the outfield is not a good long term plan, but I could live with it for half of 2013 or until some player builds up their value enough for a trade in turn opening up a more suitable postion for one of the sluggers.

jimbo92107
09-05-2012, 10:43 AM
I could see some of that, with Escobar as a younger, cheaper Alexi Casilla.

I'd deal Span, Willingham and Morneau for pitching talent, bring up Hicks and Arcia, then play Florimon and Dozier at SS and 2B respectively. I'd use Escobar as utility infielder, assuming his bat doesn't heat up. Otherwise, Dozier projects as a better hitter, and his defense at 2B should be sufficient.

Thing is, Twins "contact" pitchers need great defense to survive. That means you gotta be great up the middle and have speed in the outfield. With Arcia, Hicks and Revere out there, you'd catch a lot of fly balls, and with Florimon/Escobar, you'd keep a lot of grounders contained.

Obviously we'd miss the hitting of the first three guys, but projections always depend on the new guys coming through, at least a little. Can Hicks and Arcia hit, at least a little? If I had to keep one of the three vets, I'd keep Willingham as DH.

THE DFC
09-05-2012, 12:19 PM
I could see some of that, with Escobar as a younger, cheaper Alexi Casilla.

I'd deal Span, Willingham and Morneau for pitching talent, bring up Hicks and Arcia, then play Florimon and Dozier at SS and 2B respectively. I'd use Escobar as utility infielder, assuming his bat doesn't heat up. Otherwise, Dozier projects as a better hitter, and his defense at 2B should be sufficient.

Thing is, Twins "contact" pitchers need great defense to survive. That means you gotta be great up the middle and have speed in the outfield. With Arcia, Hicks and Revere out there, you'd catch a lot of fly balls, and with Florimon/Escobar, you'd keep a lot of grounders contained.

Obviously we'd miss the hitting of the first three guys, but projections always depend on the new guys coming through, at least a little. Can Hicks and Arcia hit, at least a little? If I had to keep one of the three vets, I'd keep Willingham as DH.

Love the breakdown. You and I see things exactly eye-to-eye.

USAFChief
09-05-2012, 12:27 PM
If the Twins deal Span, Morneau and Willingham, they are punting 2013 and probably 2014 as well. If that's your plan, fine. But do not think for a minute a team with that lineup can score enough runs to play in the AL.

Brock Beauchamp
09-05-2012, 12:34 PM
If the Twins deal Span, Morneau and Willingham, they are punting 2013 and probably 2014 as well. If that's your plan, fine. But do not think for a minute a team with that lineup can score enough runs to play in the AL.

Yep. I'd deal one this offseason, try to move another at the 2013 deadline, and then consider moving the third next offseason.

Trading all three at once isn't going to get much of a return. Morneau's value is hamstrung by his 2013 contract (which is why I'd deal him next deadline) and losing both Span and Willingham would be devastating to the offense. I'd try to move Span this offseason and consider moving Willingham the next (the less contract time left on his deal, the more willing teams will be to take on an aging slugger, the exact opposite of Span's situation).

JB_Iowa
09-05-2012, 12:48 PM
I'll take 18 runs a game, too. And I'll believe it when I see it consistently.

The Twins line-up has been able to put up big numbers all season ... it has also been able to stink up the joint and have trouble scoring 2 or 3.

mike wants wins
09-05-2012, 12:49 PM
If you will not trade the veterans, how do you plan to get better?

nokomismod
09-05-2012, 01:16 PM
The beauty of Revere getting better and Parmalee having potential is the Twins can trade Span and Morneau if they get decent offers. They may actually have a better offensive and defensive lineup without Span and Morneau(with Hicks/Arcia playing right and Parmalee playing 1st).

Oxtung
09-05-2012, 01:29 PM
If the Twins deal Span, Morneau and Willingham, they are punting 2013 and probably 2014 as well. If that's your plan, fine. But do not think for a minute a team with that lineup can score enough runs to play in the AL.

Yep. I'd deal one this offseason, try to move another at the 2013 deadline, and then consider moving the third next offseason.

Trading all three at once isn't going to get much of a return. Morneau's value is hamstrung by his 2013 contract (which is why I'd deal him next deadline) and losing both Span and Willingham would be devastating to the offense. I'd try to move Span this offseason and consider moving Willingham the next (the less contract time left on his deal, the more willing teams will be to take on an aging slugger, the exact opposite of Span's situation).

I think you've found the Twins trade plan special sauce. This plan gets all the players moved without just blowing things up all at once, allows the team to pick the outfielder most ready at any given time and if that outfielder struggles and it's determined wasn't actually ready you have another prospect you can call up to replace the original so you aren't stuck with Dozier-esque production just because there is nobody else.

JP3700
09-05-2012, 02:54 PM
I would much rather have Escobar be the starting SS than Florimon or Dozier. I have never understood this talk about the guy can't hit. He's been completely mishandled. In his half year as a 21 year old he was putting up equal numbers to Daniel Santana who most people consider a top 20 prospect in the organization while being a plus defender which Santana is not. Then he was rushed to AA and held his own. At age 22 he put up better numbers than Florimon did at age 25 in a full year at AAA. This year he was called up just to sit on the bench and regress.

He was the #5 prospect in the White Sux organization in 2011 so it's not like he can't play. Let him develop and see what we have. If we can teach him some better plate discipline, with his defense, I would be good with him for a few years. He's definitely a better option than Florimon or Dozier

ashburyjohn
09-05-2012, 03:05 PM
I'm with Top Gun. This lineup should score roughly 18 runs per game, which is enough to get us over .500 for the year. One caveat is that whatchamacallit, that sample size thingy.

I could go along with 1 or 2 runs being a small sample, but 18 seems large enough to me.

StormJH1
09-06-2012, 12:30 PM
I would much rather have Escobar be the starting SS than Florimon or Dozier. I have never understood this talk about the guy can't hit. He's been completely mishandled. In his half year as a 21 year old he was putting up equal numbers to Daniel Santana who most people consider a top 20 prospect in the organization while being a plus defender which Santana is not. Then he was rushed to AA and held his own. At age 22 he put up better numbers than Florimon did at age 25 in a full year at AAA. This year he was called up just to sit on the bench and regress.

He was the #5 prospect in the White Sux organization in 2011 so it's not like he can't play. Let him develop and see what we have. If we can teach him some better plate discipline, with his defense, I would be good with him for a few years. He's definitely a better option than Florimon or Dozier

I'm not really following your logic here. Shortstops are evaluated as much for their glove as for their bat. To say that you're the #5 prospect in a bad organization might make you the 25th best prospect in a good organization. Escobar got a full AAA season in 2011 and struck out 104 times with little power. His appears fast on the basepaths, but that won't matter much with an OBP hovering around .300 the past few seasons, and a fairly terrible success rate on steals.

Florimon, Dozier, and D. Santana are not proven MLB hitters either, so it doesn't mean much to compare them Escobar. However, we are seeing Florimon's defense in the bigs, and in my opinion, he's been pretty darn good. I think some other people share that opinion.

I'm more worried about 2B, to be honest. I could live a SS who hits like Florimon (or even Dozier's numbers) if they were a plus defender. 2B is a position where you can find offensive value, except the Twins haven't. The organization has been generally terrible at finding middle infielders since...well, Knoblauch.

JP3700
09-06-2012, 04:04 PM
I'm not really following your logic here. Shortstops are evaluated as much for their glove as for their bat. To say that you're the #5 prospect in a bad organization might make you the 25th best prospect in a good organization. Escobar got a full AAA season in 2011 and struck out 104 times with little power. His appears fast on the basepaths, but that won't matter much with an OBP hovering around .300 the past few seasons, and a fairly terrible success rate on steals.

Florimon, Dozier, and D. Santana are not proven MLB hitters either, so it doesn't mean much to compare them Escobar. However, we are seeing Florimon's defense in the bigs, and in my opinion, he's been pretty darn good. I think some other people share that opinion.

I'm more worried about 2B, to be honest. I could live a SS who hits like Florimon (or even Dozier's numbers) if they were a plus defender. 2B is a position where you can find offensive value, except the Twins haven't. The organization has been generally terrible at finding middle infielders since...well, Knoblauch.

All I was doing was comparing Escobar to the "top 3" SS in the organization closest to the majors. I'll re visit in more depth if you are not following.

I'll start with Florimon: They are both plus defenders with above average speed. They both put up a slightly above .650 OPS in their full year at AAA with high strikeout rates. The big difference is that in those years Florimon was 25 with almost 1000 previous PA at AA while Escobar was 22 with not even 250 PA at AA.

Let's move on to Dozier: Obviously Escobar is better at every defensive aspect and has slightly more speed. Now let's compare their bats. In Dozier's first full year at the majors/AAA he produced a slightly over .600 OPS, was terrible at situational hitting, and couldn't get a bunt down to save his life(Escobar is good at both). Also add the fact that he is 25! I know people will talk about Dozier's past but he really only had one good year and there is a lot to be said about age vs. level when dealing with prospects. Escobar is turning 24 this off-season so it would be like sending him back down to high A ball next year, you really don't think he'd put up inflated numbers?

Finally, Daniel Santana: the only reason I threw him in there is that I have read posts about Santana putting up good numbers at high A ball for being a MI at his young age. Then I read about how Escobar is a terrible hitter and will never develop into a better hitter. Do me a favor and compare Esco's high A hitting line vs. Santana's at an equal age. Considering they're identical, Esco is quoted to be a "defensive wizard" and I have not seen, read or heard one good thing about Santana's defense, why is it fair that people bash Esco and others have high hopes for Santana?

He was 21 in AA and 22 at AAA and put up respectable numbers considering his age vs. level and that he's a SS, while still being a plus defender! I just don't think it's fair how people look at stats how they want to. It feels like people want to write him off because he was part of a "bad Liriano trade". Well we got the best SS in the organization (I know it's not saying much if anything at all) and a possible back end starter for a erratic pitching rental, I think they did pretty well. I'm not saying Escobar is the solution but he is currently the one I would go with from the options we have.

TK10
09-06-2012, 04:08 PM
Glad to see this thread, I've been thinking about this a lot lately. If you're able to flip Span and Morneau, why not a lineup of:

1- Revere, 8
2- Mastroianni, 7
3- Mauer, 9
4- Willingham, DH
5- Parmalee, 3
6- Plouffe, 5
7- Doumit, 2
8- Dozier, 4
9- Florimon, 6

Bench:
Carroll
Escobar
Butera
Carson

Doumit catches 100-110 games with Butera catching the rest. Or, sign a veteran in the vein of Tom Prince/Mike Redmond to catch the non-Doumit games. With Mauer, Gardy still has is beloved emergency catcher.

nokomismod
09-06-2012, 04:16 PM
Yeah TK10, having Mauer get AB's in left or right field makes sense too. When Valencia got off to the putrid start, and before Plouffe got hot, I was thinking it was time for Mauer to get in some time at 3b.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2012, 04:18 PM
Glad to see this thread, I've been thinking about this a lot lately. If you're able to flip Span and Morneau, why not a lineup of:

1- Revere, 8
2- Mastroianni, 7
3- Mauer, 9
4- Willingham, DH
5- Parmalee, 3
6- Plouffe, 5
7- Doumit, 2
8- Dozier, 4
9- Florimon, 6

Bench:
Carroll
Escobar
Butera
Carson

Doumit catches 100-110 games with Butera catching the rest. Or, sign a veteran in the vein of Tom Prince/Mike Redmond to catch the non-Doumit games. With Mauer, Gardy still has is beloved emergency catcher.

Butera cannot be on the roster next year, much less catch 50+ games!!!! Mauer's value as a 2/5-1/2 time catcher is still good, but that value diminishes as a full time RF. That bench is pretty bad. I agree with your MI 100% though. I would like Carson or Ramirez on the bench, but replace Butera with Herrmann and Escobar with somebody. No sub-.600 OPS anymore on the roster, please.

snepp
09-06-2012, 04:48 PM
[Butera cannot be on the roster next year,

At this point, I don't see anything stopping it. They're going to continue to flush that roster spot down the crapper until the day Mauer officially moves off the position and they acquire a full-time catcher.

I'm sure a "ML front office" can do no wrong though, giving plate appearances to a historically awful bat while playing a man short nearly every game.

TK10
09-06-2012, 04:59 PM
I have no love for Butera so bringing in a salty old vet in the Redmond mold would be fine by me. I think the idea of Mauer having less value in right than he does at catcher is very valid. But I like Parmalee better at first. It seems to me if you want any chance to get Mauer back to his '09 offensive value you have to get out from behind the plate permanently. I love the idea of Mastroianni in left with Revere in center and those guys 1-2 in the lineup. I also think Willingham is the perfect DH, then he doesn't have to worry about anything other than mashing.

Brock Beauchamp
09-06-2012, 05:26 PM
Butera rotting on the bench as a third catcher who starts 20-25 games in a season doesn't bother me much.

Butera starting 50 or more games as a part-time catcher is just about the worst idea in the world. The guy is one of the worst hitters in MLB history.