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View Full Version : Article: What will another good September mean for Chris Parmelee?



Cody Christie
09-04-2012, 08:58 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1008-What-will-another-good-September-mean-for-Chris-Parmelee

stringer bell
09-04-2012, 09:27 AM
Yes, find a spot for Parm. I guess I would like to see another basher--having Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit ,Parmelee, Plouffe go from 3-8 (or 2-7) is pretty formidable.

COtwin
09-04-2012, 09:33 AM
It is definitely a conundrum. Chris deserves a chance to play everyday. But at least for next year, Justin still seems to be in the teams plans for the future. Outfield is not Chris' strongest position and not having Span and Revere in there at the same time weakens the defense considerably in my opinion. Ideally Revere would be moved to center with Span either traded or in right, but I understand that this lessens Spans trade value. The question in my mind is this. Is Parmalee capable of being better in the next few years than Justin will be? If yes, than we trade Justin in the next year, until then platoon Parmalee with the outfield and first base. If no, I think we trade Parmalee. Sano seems like a likely candidate for first in the future anyway.

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 10:41 AM
I fear that this OF being trotted out there is going to be the OF for 2013. This means mistakenly trading Span instead of Morneau. This means having a weak OF defense. I would maintain that there is no room for Morneau, Parmelee, Doumit, and Mauer all on the roster at the same time unless they just keep Parmelee in RF the whole time. The obvious solution is to trade Morneau for pitching and play Parmelee at 1B. But what obvious is not what the Twins will do.

DAM DC Twins Fans
09-04-2012, 11:22 AM
The answer has to be trade somebody (Morneau, Span, Revere, or Willingham). Who do you trade--whoever can bring the best starting pitcher. Morneau will be in his walk year and has concussion history (so I doubt he will bring much), Willingham is a DH playing in LF. So my guess is trading Span or Revere and playing Parmalee in RF next year. I would like to see him at 1B, but it is doubtul the Twins will get much for Morneau.

Brock Beauchamp
09-04-2012, 11:24 AM
If he mashes again, I don't see another alternative to trading both Span and Morneau before the deadline next July (at least one of which should be traded this offseason). With Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, Parmelee, Willingham, Revere (who is coming back down to earth), Hicks, and Arcia competing for spots in 2013, guys are going to have to be traded to clear space.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-04-2012, 12:24 PM
I'd prefer they trade Revere before he reverts back to 4th OF status.
Hicks is the CF of the future, and Revere doesn't hit near enough to justify at corner OF spot.

Too Much Twins
09-04-2012, 12:40 PM
I'd prefer this path:
Trade Willingham this off-season for a respectable haul of pitching. He returns significantly more than Morneau or Revere, and frees up 7 mil for more pitching. Start next season with Revere, Span, and Parm in the outfield (he has little experience, but can't be much worse than the Hammer). Assuming another losing season and reasonable trade offers, trade Span for pitching at the deadline and call up Hicks sometime in July. 2013 off-season let Morneau walk, enter 2014 with Parm at first, a young outfield of Hicks, Revere, Arcia and hopefully a large haul of other teams' pitching.

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 12:44 PM
One would hope that an OF of Revere-Span-Willingham would be possible next year. Can't they make that work, please?

Trading Morneau (I do think they could get quite a bit of value--it isn't like he is going to be making MORE than $14 million a year after 2013, so teams can think of him as a one-year rental or a longer term declining price option) is the most direct solution to the Parmelee situation that doesn't sacrifice much defense or speed. If the Twins pick up a bit of that $14 million, the return could be very good.

I would prefer trading Revere over Span, as well (because of Hicks). That would have to be in the offseason, though. Span is going to draw more at the deadline.

I would like to see Hicks actually get some time in RF in Rochester because of that arm. If they kept BOTH Revere and Span while promoting Hicks at some point next year . . . on some day off for Mauer or Doumit or Parmelee, the Twins would have a ridiculously awesome defensive OF.

Convincing Revere to play LF and Willingham to play RF has to be on the damn agenda.

nicksaviking
09-04-2012, 12:50 PM
There are so many scenarios for the 2013 OF/1B/DH/C rotation that a positive outcome should be available. I don't mean to be pessimistic, but I don't know that I trust his frong office to make the right decisions though. In recent years they seem content to do little and let the problems work themselves out either by letting young guys who could be in the majors sit in AAA or wait for an injury to make the decision for them.

Willihammer
09-04-2012, 12:54 PM
Given the inflated price that prospects have gone for, one wonders why the Twins haven't even called up Hicks, who is also hot. The best thing may be for Parmelee to continue what he has been doing for his last 300 PAs (only), and bait a buyer like the Red Sox this winter. In a lost season, in September, there is little reason to start Span/Revere/Willihammer when they could be showcasing talent.

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 12:56 PM
I'd prefer this path:
Trade Willingham this off-season for a respectable haul of pitching. He returns significantly more than Morneau or Revere, and frees up 7 mil for more pitching. Start next season with Revere, Span, and Parm in the outfield (he has little experience, but can't be much worse than the Hammer). Assuming another losing season and reasonable trade offers, trade Span for pitching at the deadline and call up Hicks sometime in July. 2013 off-season let Morneau walk, enter 2014 with Parm at first, a young outfield of Hicks, Revere, Arcia and hopefully a large haul of other teams' pitching.

Willingham would bring back a fairly big haul, the biggest out of all of them. But that 30+ homer power is valuable for the Twins, and it comes cheaply. The debacle that was Joe Benson's 2012 season had quite an impact.

Ultima Ratio
09-04-2012, 12:58 PM
I don't see a desperate need to trade anyone yet, other than clearing up the roster on paper. If we stand pat, and I think we should until a good trade is offered, this means that we have one nice pinch hitter option every game, and we have 2-3 guys who need to be pinch hit for, namely the middle infield and Revere in a late 2-out home-run-requiring situation. If Revere is the full time LF with a platoon in RF with Parmelee and Willingham, and a DH platoon of Doumit and Willingham, and a de facto platoon at C with Mauer and Doumit -- you get a key player a day of rest who serves as that pinch hitter once a week. I'm not suggesting a strict LHP/RHP platoon, but there are obvious matchups to exploit given this situation: such as sitting Parmelee or Doumit most often when facing a LHP starter. In the 9th, when Carroll/Casilla/Dozier/Frorimon come to the plate, it would be nice to have Doumit/Parmelee to pinch hit then.

Also, with the health problems that invariable plague this team, this one-day-a-week rest day/PH scenario resolves itself with one injury.

Caveat: This does not give Gardy license to play Willingham and Parmelee in the OF at the same time. And never, ever should Doumit step on the OF grass outside of warming up before the game.

Siehbiscuit
09-04-2012, 01:22 PM
Move Span. OF of Willingham, Span and Parmalee. If we move Morneau at deadline, Parmalee can move to 1B fulltime and Hicks can take over in RF at that time. This will give Hicks a little more seasoning in the minors. Span will get better prospects than Morneau at this point.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-04-2012, 01:28 PM
Given the inflated price that prospects have gone for, one wonders why the Twins haven't even called up Hicks, who is also hot. The best thing may be for Parmelee to continue what he has been doing for his last 300 PAs (only), and bait a buyer like the Red Sox this winter. In a lost season, in September, there is little reason to start Span/Revere/Willihammer when they could be showcasing talent.
Trade Hicks?

No.

DPJ
09-04-2012, 01:31 PM
Should have just let the Dodgers have Morneau for nothing.

Money to spend on pitching and opens the door for Parm.

mike wants wins
09-04-2012, 02:34 PM
Trade morneau and Willingham. Put hicks, revere and arcia as the starting outfield, with span moving around on healthy days. Put parmalee at first, use the freed up money to get pitching or middle infield help.

joeboo_22
09-04-2012, 02:57 PM
Here is what is going to happen, Span will be moved in the off season. Revere will move to CF, Parmelee will continue in RF, where though not great, isn't terrible out there either.

Now what I would do is move Willingham before the deadline, my guess is either Benson, Hicks or Arcia will be ready to play LF by then. If 2 are ready, I trade Doumit as well.

The reason I don't trade Morneau before next year at the deadline is because of value. I'm not in the know but my guess is Morneau sells well with the average Twins fans, I bet they sell quite a few of his jersey's and his off the field events are pretty well attended.If Morneau showed up healthy next year and put up a .320 35HR 120 RBI's season with a different team it looks terrible on the Twins front office (that doesn't look great right now). So I think they would rather put up with a .260 25HR 80RBI season and let him walk unless a great deal comes his way next year.

PseudoSABR
09-04-2012, 04:23 PM
If you trade anyone from our surplus it should not be done to save money, but to obtain talent. In that case, Morneau is the WORST candidate to trade as he will bring the least in return. Span is killing his value with injuries, but I hope he gets back out there and finishes the season, because he makes the most sense to trade with the glut of CFers.

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 04:35 PM
If you trade anyone from our surplus it should not be done to save money, but to obtain talent. In that case, Morneau is the WORST candidate to trade as he will bring the least in return. Span is killing his value with injuries, but I hope he gets back out there and finishes the season, because he makes the most sense to trade with the glut of CFers.

Trading Morneau is not about saving money, it is about being able to use that money to make one (just ONE, please, Terry?) FA starting pitcher signing that means something beyond the Jeremy Guthries of the world. Morneau could yield one top prospect and some lower prospect (the Twins could throw in something else like Swarzak and Bigley). He has one near full season with very few injury issues and is back to .270 and 20+ power.

Willingham brings the biggest return, but he also is that RH power bat the Twins have lacked for a LONG time. There is only a "glut" of CF if you consider Ben Revere really to be a CF, which I don't. Hicks still has to demonstrate that he can be good to very good in AAA. Benson is a question mark. And BOTH could be RF as well.

Huskerboy
09-04-2012, 04:42 PM
Should have just let the Dodgers have Morneau for nothing.

Money to spend on pitching and opens the door for Parm.

Gets my vote. Morneau should be the first to go.

JP3700
09-04-2012, 05:22 PM
Parmelee will be in the lineup next year. If he's not, then we will know something is wrong with the organization and that they've lost their mind. The question is, who do we move to get him in the lineup?

The best move IMO is to move Span and Willingham in a package, as they have the most trade value. Two targets that make sense are the Braves and Phillies. The Braves have a world series caliber team, will have holes in both LF and CF, have a limited budget, and have a crazy amount of starting pitching. The Phillies want to also compete for a world series while staying under the luxury tax. This also might drive up the return if both teams are trying to acquire our 2 players.

It's unrealistic to think that we will ever sign an ace so we need to either draft or trade for a possible ace. In these two trades I would be looking for either a package that started with Jesse Biddle of the Phillies or Julio Teheran of the Braves. A proposed trade I thought of would be Willingham, Span, and Burton for Teheran and Delgado. The Braves need a RH set up man as well and we'd get a possible 1 and 2 for 10 years.

Obviously we move Revere to CF, Parm stays at RF to start the season and to fill Willingham's power void we go sign Jonny Gomes. Take a look at Gomes' numbers this year compared to Willingham's. If they had equal ABs, they would be almost identical and he will be cheaper. Hicks, Arcia, Benson and Herrmann start at AAA and depending on where they are, and also where the team is, by around the trade deadline we can move 2 of the 3, between Morneau, Doumit or Gomes.

Add in a couple good moves in the offseason and we can stay competitive in 2013 and still be building for the future.

Willihammer
09-04-2012, 05:28 PM
Trading Morneau is not about saving money, it is about being able to use that money to make one (just ONE, please, Terry?) FA starting pitcher

This assumes:
that the Pohlads are unwilling or unable to do both
that, a buyer exists who wants Morneau and will pay 14m for him.
that the Pohlads wouldn't do exactly what you say if they found a buyer, ie. save the money.

JR has already indicated he thinks pitching market is "Thin."

Wins are wins. They can come from good hitting, pitching, or fielding.

Morneau currently holds the 14th best wOBA of 1BS in baseball (min 400 PAs). His wRC is over 100, meaning after positional adjustment, he is producing runs at a better than average clip. Know who is behind him? Former hot prospects Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, and Ike Davis. Teams who miss a good 1b in the middle of their lineup don't often win. Even if he is a little overpaid for his position.

TheLeviathan
09-04-2012, 09:51 PM
Clearly it means going back and forth to AAA next season with stops at the big leagues when he's on his best roll only to sit on the bench for weeks on end and then a callup two weeks too late with another case of DL mismanagement.

I mean,****, guy only had to OPS well over 1.000 to get a look again. I'm sure the rope he's given will be plenty short.

PseudoSABR
09-04-2012, 10:24 PM
If you trade anyone from our surplus it should not be done to save money, but to obtain talent. In that case, Morneau is the WORST candidate to trade as he will bring the least in return. Span is killing his value with injuries, but I hope he gets back out there and finishes the season, because he makes the most sense to trade with the glut of CFers.

Trading Morneau is not about saving money, it is about being able to use that money to make one (just ONE, please, Terry?) FA starting pitcher signing that means something beyond the Jeremy Guthries of the world. Morneau could yield one top prospect and some lower prospect (the Twins could throw in something else like Swarzak and Bigley)..You're dreaming if you think Morneau gets a top prospect or if the money saved will be reinvested in order for the Twins to compete in 2013; if the Twins trade Morneau this offseason, I'll take it as a whiteflag for 2013. In any case, the Twins will already be tens of millions below budget. They can afford Morneau and starting pitchers if they choose.

OldManWinter
09-04-2012, 11:30 PM
But, Ryan recently remarked that he expects Morneau to return to his normal numbers next year and indicated the Big Canadian would be part of team foundation next year.

Shane Wahl
09-05-2012, 01:11 AM
If you trade anyone from our surplus it should not be done to save money, but to obtain talent. In that case, Morneau is the WORST candidate to trade as he will bring the least in return. Span is killing his value with injuries, but I hope he gets back out there and finishes the season, because he makes the most sense to trade with the glut of CFers.

Trading Morneau is not about saving money, it is about being able to use that money to make one (just ONE, please, Terry?) FA starting pitcher signing that means something beyond the Jeremy Guthries of the world. Morneau could yield one top prospect and some lower prospect (the Twins could throw in something else like Swarzak and Bigley)..You're dreaming if you think Morneau gets a top prospect or if the money saved will be reinvested in order for the Twins to compete in 2013; if the Twins trade Morneau this offseason, I'll take it as a whiteflag for 2013. In any case, the Twins will already be tens of millions below budget. They can afford Morneau and starting pitchers if they choose.

I guess I wonder what you mean by top prospect. I mean a top 5-8 prospect within whatever team it is (Toronto, Texas, Boston, etc.). This changes a lot if the Twins are willing to pay some of his salary. They will be pressed to return to 98 million even with Morneau. Parmelee could reasonably produce the exact same numbers in 2013 as Morneau 2012.

PseudoSABR
09-05-2012, 02:18 AM
I guess I wonder what you mean by top prospect. I mean a top 5-8 prospect within whatever team it is (Toronto, Texas, Boston, etc.). This changes a lot if the Twins are willing to pay some of his salary. They will be pressed to return to 98 million even with Morneau. Parmelee could reasonably produce the exact same numbers in 2013 as Morneau 2012.Did you see what we got for Liriano? Imagine less than that. Bigger contract, just as many questions. I don't think there's anyway Morneau fetches even a top 10 prospect with his contract, questions, and league average production. Do the Twins really need to buy a middling prospect for 14million? That doesn't seem prudent.

If we're going to trade Morneau, we need to maximize his value (or at least try), and that means trading him at the 13 deadline (if need be). Moreneau's production isn't as replaceable as Span's, especially if Morneau returns to form (or even continues his second half numbers).

It is pollyannish to believe that Morneau is the most easily expendable part. He's simply the most undesirable part (contract/production) at this point, but that will probably change in 2013.

clutterheart
09-05-2012, 02:49 AM
Folks, please understand Parmelee is NOT a substitute for Willingham or Doumitt

Willingham is Right Handed and Doumit is a Switch Hitter. Parmelee hits Left Handed and the Twins need a convincing threat the right side.

Span or Morneau have to go for him to get playing time. And I for one dread an OF consisting of Parmelee, Wllingham and Revere. This would be a bad defensive OF.

Don't Feed the Greed Guy
09-05-2012, 03:16 AM
Did I miss anything? I'm surprised that nobody is saying "Trade Parmalee!" If he has a hot September, and last night's game seems to be adding to that probability, he will have more value in the offseason than Morneau. As stated above, Morneau has the LEAST trade value, right now.

Morneau, and especially Willingham will have value next June and July before the trading deadline.

I bet that the Twins will trade one or more high level position/outfield prospects for high level pitchiing prospects this winter, and they will try to pick up one or two starters via free agency.

That will be plan A, to rebuild the starting pitching and stand pat with the present offense.

If/when Plan A, fails, Plan B will be to deal Willingham and Morneau next season.

Shane Wahl
09-05-2012, 09:58 AM
Using Liriano as an example is ridiculous. First, that trade was stupid. Second, Morneau has more value than Liriano. Morneau's numbers are good this year and he has been healthy most of the year. .800+ OPS and 25 homers is going to be appealing to a lot of teams in the AL who need 1B/DH types.

The treatment of RF this year has been bizarre from start to finish.

The Twins were at their best this year when Span and Revere were each around .350-.360 OBP at the top of the order (and Plouffe was healthy and hitting). It was as though they understood, for once, that getting on base is the key to offensive success. Now take out Span and sub in a MI with a .320 OBP (at best) next year . . .

EternalOptimism
09-05-2012, 10:48 AM
As much as I hate to say it, I think trading Willingham is the best option for the Twins. First of all, his value will never be higher, he's essentially having a career year and is signed for cheap for the next 2 years. The problem is, this is his first 30+ HR season, he'll be 34 next season. Trading him for the best package we can and having Parm play LF and a little 1B.

jimbo92107
09-05-2012, 10:55 AM
Parmelee finishing strong makes Justin Morneau available for trade. I don't agree with insulting Morneau, who is a class act. The business of baseball dictates trades and promotions. Twins need to reload with young talent, even if Parm is not another Morneau, it's gotta happen pretty soon.

DAM DC Twins Fans
09-05-2012, 11:16 AM
As much as I hate to say it, I think trading Willingham is the best option for the Twins. First of all, his value will never be higher, he's essentially having a career year and is signed for cheap for the next 2 years. The problem is, this is his first 30+ HR season, he'll be 34 next season. Trading him for the best package we can and having Parm play LF and a little 1B.

I disagree--other gms are not dumb--they know Josh will be 34 and can only decline--they also know that Josh is basically a DH playing LF.

There is a reason the Twins are where they are--their best players all have weakness in the trade market--Morneau with a big contract and concussion history, Span with injuries, Revere with no arm, Josh with no defense and an aging guy. TR needs to put all of them out there and see what he gets offered. No way, we know who will bring the most in Middle IF or pitching or prospects.

spycake
09-05-2012, 12:59 PM
TR has a pretty conservative trade reputation, so I don't know what to expect. He might stand pat, or do something otherwise underwhelming to most fans. (Bill Smith, on the other hand, would have made a major move of dubious quality.)

Unless a top starter or starting prospect is available for Span, Morneau, or Willingham (and that's far from clear), I'd be inclined to agree. (In my ideal "standing pat" scenario, Revere would get shifted to 4th outfielder / pinch runner / defensive replacement, barring injury, and everyone below him in the lineup would move up a spot.)

PseudoSABR
09-05-2012, 02:05 PM
Using Liriano as an example is ridiculous. First, that trade was stupid. Second, Morneau has more value than Liriano. Morneau's numbers are good this year and he has been healthy most of the year. .800+ OPS and 25 homers is going to be appealing to a lot of teams in the AL who need 1B/DH types. It's not ridiculous. Liriano was pitching very well and coming off all kinds of injury and make up concerns (not unlike Morneau). You admit the trade was stupid, yet you somehow think that TR will do better with Morneau? An .800 OPS from a 1B for 14 million IS NOT appealing to lots of teams. You're being willfully pollyanneish. There are people in this thread that think Morneau should have been given to the Dodgers for nothing. I think you're really out of touch about his value. (And for the record I'd rather Morneau in 2013 than some teams 8th best prospect).

Morneau will fetch far more at the deadline in 2013 because he'll be farther away from the concussion and have a chance to reemerge as an elite hitter. We'd be selling very low on Morneau in the offseason.

nokomismod
09-05-2012, 02:25 PM
Move Span. OF of Willingham, Span and Parmalee. If we move Morneau at deadline, Parmalee can move to 1B fulltime and Hicks can take over in RF at that time. This will give Hicks a little more seasoning in the minors. Span will get better prospects than Morneau at this point.
I think this is how it will play out too. Morneau will not bring any value at this time and the Twins would probably have to eat part of his salary (Doumit is more valuable than Morneau).
Has Span done something to make the Twins sour on him?

nokomismod
09-05-2012, 02:28 PM
Using Liriano as an example is ridiculous. First, that trade was stupid. Second, Morneau has more value than Liriano. Morneau's numbers are good this year and he has been healthy most of the year. .800+ OPS and 25 homers is going to be appealing to a lot of teams in the AL who need 1B/DH types.

I really don't think Morneau has any trade value. I would be happy if the Twins could just salary dump him via trade, but I think they would have to eat part of it.
Why was the Liriano trade stupid? He is still the erratic pitcher now that he was with the White Sox.

Oxtung
09-05-2012, 04:34 PM
JR has already indicated he thinks pitching market is "Thin."


No he didn't. I wish people would quite changing what TR said just to suit their own agenda. Gleeman incorrectly repeated this as well during his podcast. What TR said was that the "elite FA pitching market was 'thin'". Unless I missed a clarification somewhere he has said nothing about the pitching market as a whole. Now maybe TR doesn't go out and get any of the better pitchers this winter and maybe you think it is unlikely to happen. That's fine, rip him then, but don't put words in his mouth because he hasn't said anything about the pitching market as a whole.

Oxtung
09-05-2012, 04:42 PM
Here is what we have said so far:

Trade Span.
Trade Morneau.
Trade Willingham.
Trade Revere.
Trade Doumit
Trade Parmelee
Trade Hicks
Trade them all.

Dump them immediately.
Trade them one at a time over the next year.

Demand top prospects.
Just get rid of the contracts with no return.

Start the OF prospects next season.
Leave the OF prospects in the minors for more seasoning.

Play Parmelee in the OF.
Play Parmelee at 1B.
Platoon Parmelee.
Who cares about Parmelee for next season.

I think one thing is certain. No matter what the FO does this winter it will be wrong to a significant portion of the fanbase and we'll be hearing about this for the next 10 years.