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taune
09-02-2012, 10:18 AM
I thought it would be fun to put the top 10 Twins prospects currently. I will do an official top 50 next week, but I thought it would be fun to see what everyone else thinks. If you want you can put your own top 10's and see how we differ.

1. Miguel Sano- Had a monster year at the plate needs to cut down on the strikeouts and if he is going to remain at 3rd base he needs to shore that part up as well as he had over 40 errors at 3rd.

2. Byron Buxton- After getting off to a rough start in Pro Ball he is really raking now and showing the speed and ability that made him the number two pick in the draft.

3. Aaron Hicks- After some struggles in previous years it appears that Aaron Hicks has figured it out. A term that is used in basketball is perfect for him as he is a stat stuffer. Hicks had over 30 steals, 20 doubles, 10 triples, 10 hrs and 90 runs scored. Very likely Twins fans will see him roaming the outfield in Target Field sometime in 2013.

4. Oswaldo Arcia- Arcia is another guy that has put it all together after struggling at Fort Myers in 2011 after his monster start in Beloit. He is likely going to be the Twins minor league hitter of the year after hitting 15hr and 91 rbi's between Fort Myers and New Britain with an OPS over .900. The best comp I see from him is Jason Kubel with a little less power, but I think all Twins fans would take that.

5. Eddie Rosario- Rosario would have been right in the discussion for Twins minor league hitter of the year if he hadn't missed about a month with an injury. He is hitting over .300 with 12hr and 70 rbi's with another 20+ doubles. His play at 2nd base has been hit and miss with 17 errors on the year. It is still to be determined if he is going to be a 2nd baseman or a centerfielder, but his bat will make sure he is in the lineup one of those places every day.

6. Kyle Gibson- Gibson was the feel good story of the year coming back from Tommy John Surgery in July of 2011. The fact that he got all the way up to AAA this year was a testament to the hard work Kyle put in to get back and he should be commended for that. To add to that he picked up 1 or 2 ticks on his fastball which is really good as now he sits 92-93 instead of 90-91. Gibson will be given a few weeks off now and then head to instructionals and then to Spring Training where he will be given an opportunity to make the Twins rotation in 2013.

7. Jose Berrios- Berrios was taken with a supp pick this year for the Twins and he has dominated. In 11 games as a professional including 4 starts Berrios has gone 3-0 with a 1.17era. In 30.2 innings he has given up just 4 runs on just 15 hits. However, the stat that just blows my mind is he has only walked four guys while striking out a whopping 49 batters. He did that at just 18 years old. The sky is the limit for this kid he has by far the most upside in the organization and it will be interesting to see what the Twins do with him in 2013 whether they send him to Beloit or if they send him to extended and see what happens.

8. Max Kepler- Kepler has put together in 2012 his best year of his professional career even though we sometimes forget he is only 19 years old being that it is his 3rd year already. After taking his first two years to get used to America Kepler put up really good numbers in 2012. Kepler hit .297 with 10hr and 49rbi along with 16 doubles and 5 triples for an OPS of .925. The sky is the limit for Kepler who will head up to Beloit for his first year in fullseason ball in 2013.

9. Travis Harrison- Harrison has had a good, but not great rookie campaign for E-Town, but it is also important to keep in mind he is just 19 years old. Harrison hit for good average hitting over .300 in his first year with five homeruns and 27 rbi's along with 12 doubles and 4 triples for a OPS of .845. Those are very good numbers for your first professional year, but I was a little disappointed he did not hit for more power because he is a big powerful kid who will hit for power. The key is to be patient with him as the power will come. The bigger question is what is his postion really going to be as he committed 24 errors at 3rd base. If he wants to remain at 3rd he is going to have to improve that defense. I think he likely will return to E-town for another year, but it would not shock me to see him up in Beloit in 2013.

10. Kennys Vargas- After missing the beginning of the year serving his MLB suspension Vargas came on like wildfire and has skyrocketed up prospect lists. Vargas has the looks of a young David Ortiz and has performed like him since returning. Vargas is hitting .320 with 11hr and 36 rbi's along with 10 doubles and a triple for an OPS of 1.047. Vargas has taken the step from being a guy with talent to being a legit top 10 prospect who has the ability to be a major leaguer someday. He will likely go up to Fort Myers in 2013 to see if he continue to improve.

Thrylos
09-02-2012, 10:57 AM
This must be Travis :)

Hard to argue with this, but if you put Buxton and Kepler in this because of potential/tools, you got to put Benson in the mix as well. Yeah he had a nasty season but was mostly hurt.

taune
09-02-2012, 11:18 AM
Joe Benson is at a crossroads in his career. He has all the tools that those other guys have but he just can't stay healthy. I think it is only one maybe two years that he has played a full slate of games. Benson has to find a way to make it to the majors in 2013 for him to fufill his promise as he no longer is young for his level. I still think Benson can be a big contributer for the Twins going forward, but the clock is running out.

taune
09-02-2012, 11:24 AM
and yes this is Travis

Twins Twerp
09-02-2012, 11:35 AM
Really like the list. I am guessing most national scouts will put Buxton ahead of Sano. Saying that I agree Sano should be number one. I would also leave Benson out. He had a terrible year. I hope he can have a good comeback next year. I see him as a good fourth outfielder with all the outfielders we have. All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).

THE DFC
09-02-2012, 12:31 PM
I have to say that I'm starting to get excited about our farm system. How much better is that list than what we've been used to in the last 3-4 years?

Call me crazy, but I think all 10 of those guys have star potential.

nicksaviking
09-02-2012, 01:08 PM
Those bats are exciting. About the only complaint is that only two pitchers are worthy of the top ten. Hopefully another arm or two from the 2012 draft class can find their way onto the list next year.

greengoblinrulz
09-02-2012, 01:37 PM
Ive got my top 25 list and the bad thing is how hard it is to make an arguement for many/any starting pitchers in the 2nd 10 also over hitters.
Goin on your list, Benson/Walker/Polanco/Hermann/Roberts/Pinto/Santana etc will be 2nd 10......BJ Hermsen is the only one that is definate for me in the mid teens and we all have argued about his velocity limitations. Guys like Madison Boer & Matt Summers didnt separate themselves in A ball, Top 10 2012 prospect Adrian Salcedo battles arm problems all yr, we know about Alex Wimmers and even ELIZ aces Hudson Boyd/Angel Mata didnt dominate either depsite ok numbers.

jokin
09-02-2012, 01:39 PM
Those bats are exciting. About the only complaint is that only two pitchers are worthy of the top ten. Hopefully another arm or two from the 2012 draft class can find their way onto the list next year.

8 of 10 on this Top Ten List are/project as, OF/DH types, I would argue that Chris Parmelee makes it 9 of 10 (or 11) as long as Morneau stays a Twin. For the Twins to get out of the mess that they've got themselves in- in the Farm System, as well as with the Big Club- they need to balance this list out with more live arms and one or two MIs.

The Twins have drafted big numbers in the opening rounds for arms in both 2012 (10 of top 14 picks) and 2011 (8 of top 11). Clearly, this isn't offering intermediate-term help, with the exciting exception thus far from Berrios. (although there still may be a Top Ten List chance for Bard (any other I missed?) from 2012, and Wimmers, from the 2010 draft). The Twins are going to have to take the great risks necessary to acquire top-ten pitching talent and MIs by trading some of these top prospects and/or finding someone else young internationally and outbidding MLB competitors (as in the case of Miguel Sano).

jokin
09-02-2012, 01:44 PM
Ive got my top 25 list and the bad thing is how hard it is to make an arguement for many/any starting pitchers in the 2nd 10 also over hitters.
Goin on your list, Benson/Walker/Polanco/Hermann/Roberts/Pinto/Santana etc will be 2nd 10......BJ Hermsen is the only one that is definate for me in the mid teens and we all have argued about his velocity limitations. Guys like Madison Boer & Matt Summers didnt separate themselves in A ball, Top 10 2012 prospect Adrian Salcedo battles arm problems all yr, we know about Alex Wimmers and even ELIZ aces Hudson Boyd/Angel Mata didnt dominate either depsite ok numbers.

Could Hermsen and Boyd possibly become Dave Goltz/Rick Reuschel-types? Big guys that eat a lot of innings and battle without necessarily carrying a strike-out pitch.

Pius Jefferson
09-02-2012, 02:06 PM
What's the long term plan with the pitchers the Twins drafted this year? Except for Taylor Rogers they've all pitched out of the bullpen. I'd guess the two pitchers from Rice are going to be relievers, but what about Bard, Jones, and the others.

taune
09-02-2012, 02:09 PM
Melotakis is going to stay a reliever, Bard is going to start those are the only ones that I know off hand

joeboo_22
09-02-2012, 02:09 PM
I don't have a problem with the list. I like Benson but I don't know if he is in the prospect category now. I think if healthy he will have a solid major league career.

As far as other pitchers? I agree there isn't a ton of them in the organization.

taune
09-02-2012, 02:10 PM
Oh of course Berrios is going to start

greengoblinrulz
09-02-2012, 02:14 PM
there some intriguing pitchers that wont make any top list yet......Zach/Tyler Jones in BEL are 2 hardthrowing strikeout pitchers who can make some noise next yr

SpantheMan
09-02-2012, 02:38 PM
It's interesting to wonder what positions these outfield prospects will play in the majors considering all out prospects. In my opinion Revere should be the LFer becuase of his arm and that LF is bigger than right at Target. I see Arcia as a replacement for Willingham except that he should play RF because his arm is a big stronger than Revere but he isn't as fast. Then you have Hick who is pretty much a lock to be a CFer considering his great arm and great speed. Obviously not all these guys will be stars but I think you have a good, cheap, young outfield within the next year, without even factoring benson or Buxton in (or rosario of 2b doesn't work out).

old nurse
09-02-2012, 05:47 PM
It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

Thrylos
09-02-2012, 06:32 PM
It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough

kab21
09-02-2012, 07:17 PM
This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough

Fact 2 is just ridiculous.

old nurse
09-02-2012, 09:02 PM
It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.

greengoblinrulz
09-02-2012, 09:25 PM
It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.
Thome played in 55gms at 18 & 67gms at age 19. There were 26 errors @ 3B (83gms) those 2 yrs (14e's in 40gms at SS) with 77k 72bb in 505ABs

jokin
09-02-2012, 09:32 PM
It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.

Thrylos was probably quoting Sano's DR League BB:K ratio when he actually was 19 (when was that? 3 years ago?):cry:

For the record, Sano's BA is currently .260, not .235.

But the point is well taken, Sano has quite a journey ahead of him to try to match Thome's game, Sano's projection partner is scary, his current rate of production bears a more current resemblance to Adam Dunn's.....(Dunn at 19 in the Midwest Leauge: OPS 885/SO 64/BB 46/BA 307) :angry:

Brad Swanson
09-02-2012, 09:43 PM
Matt Kemp had 159 Ks in 2011, his OPS was almost 1.000 and he hit 39 home runs.

Jim Thome had 185 Ks in 2001, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 49 home runs.

Ryan Howard had 181 Ks in 2006, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 58 home runs.

Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton strike out more than average. They all struck out a lot in the low minors too. They are all huge power guys and occasional MVP candidates.

Josh Willingham might strike out 150 times this year. He also might hit 40 home runs.

Power hitters strike out a lot and they don't always have good batting averages. When they can combine both, they might be inducted into the Hall of Fame (Pujols, M. Cabrera). It depends on what you want from Sano. If you want 40 bombs per year, he is going to strike out 120-150 times. If you want 25 and .300, he will have to change his approach. He has 80 power, why not see how many home runs he can hit and learn to deal with the Ks?

jokin
09-02-2012, 10:04 PM
Matt Kemp had 159 Ks in 2011, his OPS was almost 1.000 and he hit 39 home runs.

Jim Thome had 185 Ks in 2001, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 49 home runs.

Ryan Howard had 181 Ks in 2006, his OPS was over 1.000 and he hit 58 home runs.

Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Justin Upton strike out more than average. They all struck out a lot in the low minors too. They are all huge power guys and occasional MVP candidates.

Josh Willingham might strike out 150 times this year. He also might hit 40 home runs.

Power hitters strike out a lot and they don't always have good batting averages. When they can combine both, they might be inducted into the Hall of Fame (Pujols, M. Cabrera). It depends on what you want from Sano. If you want 40 bombs per year, he is going to strike out 120-150 times. If you want 25 and .300, he will have to change his approach. He has 80 power, why not see how many home runs he can hit and learn to deal with the Ks?

When it's finally all said and done, I'll gladly settle for career numbers somewhere in-between Thome and Dunn. :)

nicksaviking
09-03-2012, 12:52 AM
I'm really trying not to get my hopes up about the 2012 pitching draft class until they have success in New Britain, but it is hard not to be optimistic that some of these guys will find their way onto the top ten list as very few have yet to stumble. While the sample sizes are small and most of these guys have only pitched an couple innings at a time in relief, it would seem that many, if not most of these guys should be in over their head during their first taste of pro ball, but I'd say only a couple pitchers drafted late really are in too deep.

Barrios- 49K/4BB, 30 IP, 1.17 ERA between GCL and E'ton
Bard- 7K/7BB, 7 IP, 3.86 ERA: GCL/E'ton
Melotakis- 34K/6BB, 24 IP, 1.88 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
Chargois- 22K/5BB, 16 IP, 1.69 ERA: E'ton
Jones- 31K/11BB, 19 IP, 2.37 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
Duffy- 27K/2BB, 19 IP, 1.42 ERA: E'ton
Martinez- 11K/9BB, 14 IP, 4.50 ERA: GCL
Powell- 30K/7BB 15, IP, 5.74 ERA: E'ton
Baxendale- 31K/2BB, 18 IP, 0.98 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
Rogers- 73K/17BB, 61 IP, 2.35 ERA: E'ton/Beloit
Muren- 12K/9BB, 24 IP, 1.46 ERA: GCL
Huber- 10K/8BB, 14 IP, 7.71 ERA: E'ton
Goldsmith- 5K/5BB, 4 IP, 6.75: GCL
Ferreira- 13K/7BB, 10 IP, 1.80 ERA: E'ton
Merck- 28K/6BB, 24 IP, 4.07 ERA: E'ton

These are the 15 pitchers from the 2012 draft class that have already got innings with the organization.

Only three are failing to strikeout a batter an inning, while Barrios, Melotakis, Chargois, Duffy, Baxendale, Rogers and Merck seem to have very little to no control issues at this point.

Only one of the top six pitchers taken has an ERA over 2.50, and nine of the 15 overall are lower than that figure.

Six of the pitchers got a mid-season promotion, and Chargois and Duffy, maybe even Merck deserved one too, but it's tough to find room for that many pitchers late in the year.

There is enough talent here, hopefully most of these guys get a shot at starting and can carry over most of the success they have had in relief. We won't know if drafting relievers and transforming them into starters is going to work for several years, but with the success up to this point, I would not be surprised if the Twins take the same approach in next years draft.

Shane Wahl
09-03-2012, 01:22 AM
Benson would replace Vargas (want to see V get a full season at Fort Myers first), but that is a very good and accurate top 9.

One thing is certain and that is that the Twins system is now very good or great through Beloit. Then it is very good again at New Britain.

taune
09-03-2012, 06:38 AM
I along with Seth Stohs made the trek to Beloit to see these guys and the thing that I came out from Sano is he has the physical tools to stay at 3rd base. I think it is a maturity and focus thing more than a physical thing. In pregame warm ups he can move laterally and he makes all the plays in pregame. This was my 2nd year going and Seth's 3rd year and we both agreed that he is a freak that will only improve. Some of the strikeouts that we saw were borderline pitches that I don't want him swinging at anyway. I came away feeling like Sano has all the god given tools to be a monster. I think we all just need to take a step back and let him develop at his pace. I may be in the minority but I believe he can play at 3rd base. His bat is going to be huge and I think he can put up Miguel Cabrera type numbers as he moves up. Miguel Sano is the least of my worries about the Twins farm system he will be just fine.

kab21
09-03-2012, 11:26 AM
The ridiculous part of thrylos comments is that comparing a prospect's stat line (esp in low A) to HOF (and all star) players is ridiculous. There's nothing wrong with striking out at the rates that Sano does but it's difficult to maintain those rates as you move up in the minors. The scouting reports also suggest that there are concerns with strikeouts.

I don't really understand what the discussion is about. i think everyone has him rated #1 on the Twins list and he looks like he'll be top 25 on most lists. He is a really, really good prospect but if you ignore the flaws then you are in for a letdown.

TRex
09-04-2012, 12:47 PM
I tend to agree with thrylos' comment, but only because I find myself finishing old nurse's statement as "He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often"... OR HE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE BIG LEAGUES.

However, old nurse may wish to complete his/her sentence as ... or he will not become an All Star (or HOFer), in which case I would be in complete agreement.

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 01:07 PM
I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.

Brock Beauchamp
09-04-2012, 01:45 PM
Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 01:57 PM
I assumed that Parmelee wasn't in the top 10 simply because of the amount of playing time with the Twins?

Seth Stohs
09-04-2012, 02:22 PM
Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".

He went over the "prospect/rookie" plate appearances early this year, so he wouldn't be included any more in prospect lists. When I do mine, I go by the MLB Rookie criteria. If they can still win the rookie of the year award, they're a 'prospect.'

old nurse
09-04-2012, 02:33 PM
It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.
Thome played in 55gms at 18 & 67gms at age 19. There were 26 errors @ 3B (83gms) those 2 yrs (14e's in 40gms at SS) with 77k 72bb in 505ABs

If you want to argue statistics over two years fine. There is still a significant difference between the two players, The number of errors Sano has is way higher. When he connects good things happen. Thome in the majors fielded third at a .952. Again a significant difference from Sano at .881. Would you want a third baseman with a career .881 fielding percentages and an error a week? Sano's batting average dropped significantly between rookie and A ball.

Siehbiscuit
09-04-2012, 02:45 PM
I haven't seen Sano play, like most of us I read a lot of stuff, but haven't analyzed his approach or his actual swing. Most everyone understands that with big-time power he will whiff a lot. My concern/question is truly one of ignorance. What is the reason for the strikeouts? Is it too long of a swing (think Brandon Wood) or is it just his approach or strike-zone discipline? If you don't recall Brandon Wood put up crazy power numbers at all of his stops in the minors but could never adjust to MLB pitchers due to a "long" swing. Is this Sano? Or does Sano just need to mature as guys like Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward have been allowed to (although at the MLB level)?

Brock Beauchamp
09-04-2012, 03:02 PM
Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".

He went over the "prospect/rookie" plate appearances early this year, so he wouldn't be included any more in prospect lists. When I do mine, I go by the MLB Rookie criteria. If they can still win the rookie of the year award, they're a 'prospect.'

That's fair. I guess it all depends on where you draw the line on "prospect". For me, it's a guy who hasn't gotten a real chance to play every day for at least two months. Chris hasn't had a real shot, he's just accumulated ABs here and there.

Mauerzy4Prez
09-04-2012, 03:04 PM
All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).

Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.

Twins Twerp
09-04-2012, 03:39 PM
All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).

Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.

I see where you are coming from. I maybe should have said six as I also like JO. But Gibson is going to be 25 and probably starting out at AAA. He is also going to be 2 years removed from surgery. He could still be a solid pro but I don't see him as a hot prospect anymore.

I am not on high as JO as everyone else seems to be. I still think he could become a great pitcher, but his size scares me. You just don't see a lot of those skinny short type of pitchers starting. I know that some will put out the 'freak' and Trevor Bauer. But the freak is just that, a freak. JO's floor is pretty high too. At the very least, he will be a late inning reliever. When the rankings come out this spring from all the National mags/websites/columnist/etc. I think the reviews on JO will be all over the map. It is nice to have some pitching to look forward to in the future. Go Twins

gunnarthor
09-04-2012, 03:40 PM
I like the top 10 listed here. I would remove Vargas and add Goodrum or Michael (I'm still high on him) but can't quibble with 1-6.

Mauerzy4Prez
09-04-2012, 04:03 PM
All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).

Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.

I see where you are coming from. I maybe should have said six as I also like JO. But Gibson is going to be 25 and probably starting out at AAA. He is also going to be 2 years removed from surgery. He could still be a solid pro but I don't see him as a hot prospect anymore.

I am not on high as JO as everyone else seems to be. I still think he could become a great pitcher, but his size scares me. You just don't see a lot of those skinny short type of pitchers starting. I know that some will put out the 'freak' and Trevor Bauer. But the freak is just that, a freak. JO's floor is pretty high too. At the very least, he will be a late inning reliever. When the rankings come out this spring from all the National mags/websites/columnist/etc. I think the reviews on JO will be all over the map. It is nice to have some pitching to look forward to in the future. Go Twins

I tend to disagree about Gibson breaking camp in AAA next year. All reports I have heard/read have said to look for him in the rotation next year out of ST, if he can perform well enough in the spring.

Berrios' stature may not be that of the typical starter in the bigs. But I don't think he can be called "short and skinny".... The dude is pretty ripped, and I had once seen that his workout routine is pretty intense. He's listed at 6'0 187lbs online, and is only 18. He may not be getting any taller, but he will certainly gain some more weight in muscle.

John Bonnes
09-04-2012, 04:03 PM
and yes this is Travis

Hey, don't be shy! You can use your full name as your user name so we know who you are!

I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)

Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.

I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.

Shane Wahl
09-04-2012, 04:10 PM
and yes this is Travis

Hey, don't be shy! You can use your full name as your user name so we know who you are!

I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)

Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.

I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.

I hope they do not give up on Rosario at second either. I don't think he was *that* bad there in his time. Another off-season of practice there should help. Sano can move to 1B if he has to and not further clog up the OF.

John Bonnes
09-04-2012, 04:14 PM
Anyone know where we can find archived versions of Baseball America's Top 100 overall lists? What I'm really wondering is when the Twins last had so many high upside prospects? I'll be very interested to see how many of these guys are in the top 100 or even the top 50.

Seth Stohs
09-04-2012, 04:35 PM
In about 2002 or so, the Twins had Mauer and Morneau in the top 10 of BA and I think Cuddyer was around 25. Restovich may have been Top 100 that year.

Seth Stohs
09-04-2012, 04:48 PM
BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

drjim
09-04-2012, 07:17 PM
I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.

I like this way of thinking about it. Putting the first hurdle at full season ball and the second as the jump to AA. I think Hi A can be a decent starting place for a college player, but Michael was pushed pretty aggressively considering the fact he was on the young side for a junior and the fact he was injured for much of last year. Next year will really be the telling year for him.

This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.

PseudoSABR
09-05-2012, 12:52 AM
BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)
The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow.

righty8383
09-05-2012, 01:12 AM
Yeah things really got thin after 2007. Garza, Perkins and Slowey all graduated I think and Parmelee underperformed thus fell off.

BTW, thanks Seth for sharing this. Always interesting to see prospect lists from years ago. It shows how unpredictable prospects can be. However thats the fun of following them.

Lets assume the consensus top 5 in no particular order is Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks. If I was to travel 6 or 7 years into the future, and find out that 2 of these guys turned out to be productive/above average big league players, should I call that a success?

Shane Wahl
09-05-2012, 01:43 AM
I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.


I like this way of thinking about it. Putting the first hurdle at full season ball and the second as the jump to AA. I think Hi A can be a decent starting place for a college player, but Michael was pushed pretty aggressively considering the fact he was on the young side for a junior and the fact he was injured for much of last year. Next year will really be the telling year for him.

This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.

I am glad you like it, but the Twins do not. They stagnate players all the time in A+ and AA (and pitchers in E-Town and A+). If Sano does very well or better through June for Fort Myers, i will start going crazy if they don't then promote him. There is nothing wrong with playing at AA or AAA for more than year if one has been pushed aggressively before then.

THE DFC
09-05-2012, 12:10 PM
BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)
The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow.

No kidding. It's not really hard to understand why we've been so brutal in recent years when you look at these lists and couple that with the laughable Billy Smith trade record.

As John mentioned, it'll be interesting to compare around 05 when Morneau and Cuddyer were cutting their teeth in the big leagues and Mauer and Kubel were so highly regarded with Arcia and Hicks in the bigs and Sano, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, Kepler and Harrison not far behind. I think the 05 group had the higher ceilings with more sure-fire answers, but this upcoming group certainly has more depth and potential upside. Let's hope we can keep Sano, Rosario and Harrison in the infield, as a few have mentioned.

Things would, of course, get really interesting if Berrios turns out to be a full-blown ace in the making. We'll see, but we all have to be very optimistic, albeit cautiously, after his showing in E-town this year.

diehardtwinsfan
09-05-2012, 06:54 PM
not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

gunnarthor
09-05-2012, 07:42 PM
not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

I'd disagree. Arcia has had great results but his upside (from what I understand) is a solid RFer whereas Sano, Hicks and Buxton could all be all stars or more and none of them have shown reasons to rate them lower at this time.

Badsmerf
09-05-2012, 08:27 PM
not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

I'd disagree. Arcia has had great results but his upside (from what I understand) is a solid RFer whereas Sano, Hicks and Buxton could all be all stars or more and none of them have shown reasons to rate them lower at this time.
Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

gunnarthor
09-05-2012, 10:17 PM
Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

In a recent chat, Callis wrote (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2012/2613983.html):
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.

The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.

beckmt
09-06-2012, 01:58 AM
Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.

Shane Wahl
09-06-2012, 02:13 AM
Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.

Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).

Thrylos
09-06-2012, 05:08 AM
Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).

I think that Ortiz and Morales would be subject to the AAA part of the rule 5 draft and Bigley to the MLB part of the same draft this season so a team can have them for practically nothing :)

On the other hand, the Twins should deal from a strength. Too many OFs: Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Buxton, Benson etc (Revere, Parmelee, Sano/Harrison) equals a bottleneck. So the Twins should deal some. And the higher they deal the better the return. I would have zero problem is they deal Arcia or Hicks (but not both) for an equally rated SP prospect. Buxton cannot be traded, Kepler is about to shoot really high in value and Benson dropped. The Twins have to sell high. Point in case Angel Morales. Few seasons ago he was a top prospect, now... They missed the window of opportunity.

Badsmerf
09-06-2012, 06:40 AM
Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

In a recent chat, Callis wrote (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2012/2613983.html):
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.

The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.
I see your point, but at the same time you are selling what Arcia did this year too low. Sano has the chance to not just be an All-Star, but a special player. Buxton is far too young and inexperienced to rank above Arcia at this point and Hicks is 1.5 years older than Arcia and finally put up a good season..... but it still wasn't as good as Arcia's.

TRex
09-06-2012, 08:42 AM
The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).

All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.

Steve Lein
09-06-2012, 10:59 AM
Like the list, though I'd have Benson in there somewhere over Vargas. Ya, he put up some big numbers in a short sample, but he's a DH.

I also like the optimism about Sano sticking at 3B. I really really really hope that can happen, but I'd bet $$ he's in RF when he debuts with the Twins.

Badsmerf
09-09-2012, 09:19 AM
The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).

All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.
I know it counts. Arcia is also a capable OF. You're dismissing the gap between the 2. Again, Hicks is 1.5 years older and finally put up a nice season. Arcia has destroyed every level and is so young that developing more power is a given. Hicks will be a fine player if he continues to improve and builds on this year. Arcia will be a monster if he continues to improve and builds on this year. The defensive ability of Hicks wont outweigh a 100+ difference in OPS.

Brock Beauchamp
09-09-2012, 10:39 AM
The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).

All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.
I know it counts. Arcia is also a capable OF. You're dismissing the gap between the 2. Again, Hicks is 1.5 years older and finally put up a nice season. Arcia has destroyed every level and is so young that developing more power is a given. Hicks will be a fine player if he continues to improve and builds on this year. Arcia will be a monster if he continues to improve and builds on this year. The defensive ability of Hicks wont outweigh a 100+ difference in OPS.

Personally, I rank Arcia higher than Hicks but it's close. Arcia gets the nod for being a better hitter and being younger. Hicks keeps it close by getting on base, playing centerfield, and being a threat on the basepaths.

John and I have discussed why some Twins hitters fall off the radar during their stints in A/AA and then rebound later in their MiLB career. Parmelee and Plouffe did that. Hicks looks like he's doing it. We wondered if the Twins put such an emphasis on going the other way, taking good ABs, and drilling fundamentals that it takes guys awhile to adjust and then when they "get it", they break out in the upper minors. I'm starting to think that is a real possibility, which is why I think an argument can be made for both Hicks and Arcia. Some guys "get it" more quickly than others and I'm not going to hold that against Aaron Hicks now that it looks like he's coming around.

Brock Beauchamp
09-09-2012, 10:40 AM
I also like the optimism about Sano sticking at 3B. I really really really hope that can happen, but I'd bet $$ he's in RF when he debuts with the Twins.

Given the difficulty in finding third basemen in this league, I think the Twins really need to push Sano hard at third base until they are completely out of options. I don't care if it takes Sano another year to reach the majors; given the position scarcity of third base historically, it's in everyone's best interest if he finds a way to stick at third.

mike wants wins
09-09-2012, 11:29 AM
While I on the other hand want Sano up here asap. It's a waste of a year or two of his MLB career to keep him down when he could be up.

I long for the day when Ryan will trade from his prospect strengths to fill in holes.

Brock Beauchamp
09-09-2012, 11:32 AM
While I on the other hand want Sano up here asap. It's a waste of a year or two of his MLB career to keep him down when he could be up.

Does it really matter? You get six years out of the guy no matter what. In many ways, it's better to get those six years from 24-30 than from 22-28. Most guys don't really break out until their age 24-25 seasons, with their peak coming at age 27-28. I'm not saying the Twins should keep Sano down until 2016 but if it takes a little longer to turn him into an adequate third baseman, I can wait and so should the organization.

joeboo_22
09-09-2012, 04:14 PM
My guess is Sano starts in Fort Myers, and assuming he starts well, will move up to New Britain when the weather gets warmer. My guess is then that in 2014 he will start the season in AAA and then prolly move up around July 1st.

Though he had good numbers at low A, it wasn't like he completely destroyed low A either. He struck out his fair share and had a period where his defense struggled.

I'd go with the same plan for Vargas

diehardtwinsfan
09-09-2012, 09:30 PM
The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).

All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.
I know it counts. Arcia is also a capable OF. You're dismissing the gap between the 2. Again, Hicks is 1.5 years older and finally put up a nice season. Arcia has destroyed every level and is so young that developing more power is a given. Hicks will be a fine player if he continues to improve and builds on this year. Arcia will be a monster if he continues to improve and builds on this year. The defensive ability of Hicks wont outweigh a 100+ difference in OPS.

Arcia was also a CF until he got promoted and had to share the OF with Hicks, so let's not pretend he's some plodding outfielder. He might not be the quickest guy out there, but I have a tough time believing that a decent CF switching to RF couldn't be above average with the glove. Add to it what smerf said, he's out hit Hicks at every level, and he's younger. Buxton has no experience. In my mind, I'd have a tough time deciding between Sano and Arcia for number 1. Both look like middle of the order bats, and while Sano has a higher ceiling, Arcia looks like he's going to get pretty close to his.

drjim
09-10-2012, 08:39 PM
Jim Callis today (in Ask BA) was asked to do a top 10 and put Buxton at #9 overall.

I personally would put Sano ahead of Buxton...I imagine Sano was not far out of the top 10.